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Small correction to my previous post: then there's also Miltonkram's doubt towards me, which is an improvement over having no original opinions (with the exception of a safe lurker vote). Still, it came only after I put pressure on him, WITHOUT addressing any of my accusations. That means it's just a reactionary deflection from himself, not a genuine suspicion towards me.
ShiaoPi, I agree that my initial case on Heist wasn't that strong. However, his comment on Vivax "bussing" raised so many red flags that I focused on finding additional evidence and saw some Mafia slips that weren't actual slips. s0Lstice had a good case on him, how is it suspicious to use some of the stuff s0Lstice already mentioned? As a sidenote, I addressed the lynch situation and my actions during it a bit earlier to Miltonkram.
I don't know how this thread became so dead since Day 1. It's really hurting the discussion that a couple of active posters do all the talking, while the rest just stay silent. We need more contribution from almost everyone right now (with the exception of those who have now been active).
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On June 04 2012 20:46 Miltonkram wrote:@ Xatalos I am not ignoring your accusations towards me. Due to some severe time constraints I've had to prioritize what I want to get done. The case on you seems quite a bit more important. Looking back I didn't immediately realize that your accusations are almost the exact same accusations that s0Lstice and suki directed at me. I responded to s0Lstice here Show nested quote +Yes s0Lstice, it does remind me of a certain game that happened very recently. In fact, last time it was you who was involved in my suspicion. I'm still suspicious of sciberbia, just like I'm suspicious of everyone else in this game, but my read on him was that he was trying to divide the town into a semi-useless discussion on policy. As far as I can tell he wasn't. He was trying to show a non-typical line of play for the town that could also improve our chances. I also must admit that his statement about 5 lynches confused me. I was looking at the number of mislynches we were allowed to make and saw his numbers were off. I didn't think it all the way through, he meant the maximum number of lynches we could have this game.
Goal #1: Pressure sciberbia/get a response from him. Accomplished
Goal #2: Prove I'm a complete dumbass. Accomplished and I responded to suki here. Show nested quote +---snip @ suki My apologies towards sciberbia were an attempt at self deprecating humor. Unfortunately there is no humor font, just as there is no sarcasm font here on the internetz. While my response to your question was not directly aimed at you, I did answer s0Lstice's question on my flip-flop of sciberbia here + Show Spoiler +Yes s0Lstice, it does remind me of a certain game that happened very recently. In fact, last time it was you who was involved in my suspicion.
I'm still suspicious of sciberbia, just like I'm suspicious of everyone else in this game, but my read on him was that he was trying to divide the town into a semi-useless discussion on policy. As far as I can tell he wasn't. He was trying to show a non-typical line of play for the town that could also improve our chances. I also must admit that his statement about 5 lynches confused me. I was looking at the number of mislynches we were allowed to make and saw his numbers were off. I didn't think it all the way through, he meant the maximum number of lynches we could have this game.
Goal #1: Pressure sciberbia/get a response from him. Accomplished
Goal #2: Prove I'm a complete dumbass. Accomplished which I felt also adequately answered your question. You keep pestering me about ignoring you when your question + Show Spoiler +@Miltonkram I'd like a clear explanation of why you felt it was so important to vote for sciberbia this early in the game. has been answered, just not directly at you. If you actually read through my posts you'd notice that the question had been answered. You are trying to misrepresent me and I really don't appreciate it. If there is anything in my response that you are unsatisfied with, feel free to ask me about it.
Hmm. It's easy to claim something was just "humor" afterwards, but if people don't see it as humor at the time, it's either A) bad humor B) not actually humor, but hidden as humor to cover up a mistake. I can see some kind of a (bad) townie logic in these posts, but the stronger alternative is that it was a Mafia play covered up as humor afterwards. In any case, the possibility of bad townie logic is better than no possibility of any townie logic, so this isn't a huge reason to lynch for...
Okay, so you have huge time limitations. The problem I have is that when you actually HAVE been online, you haven't been a contributive force in the discussion. You've just blended in and bandwagoned whenever possible (Suki after reaching a critical mass, Vivax after reaching a critical mass). You also made a safe vote for a lurker on Day 1, then placed some vague suspicions on me today after I called you out. None of this looks good for you.
Also, what about my response to your suspicions? You haven't addressed that at all. I want to see if it was a misguided reaction to me calling you out or a deflection to move attention away from yourself.
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On June 04 2012 21:05 ShiaoPi wrote:Show nested quote +On June 04 2012 20:00 Xatalos wrote: Small correction to my previous post: then there's also Miltonkram's doubt towards me, which is an improvement over having no original opinions (with the exception of a safe lurker vote). Still, it came only after I put pressure on him, WITHOUT addressing any of my accusations. That means it's just a reactionary deflection from himself, not a genuine suspicion towards me.
ShiaoPi, I agree that my initial case on Heist wasn't that strong. However, his comment on Vivax "bussing" raised so many red flags that I focused on finding additional evidence and saw some Mafia slips that weren't actual slips. s0Lstice had a good case on him, how is it suspicious to use some of the stuff s0Lstice already mentioned? As a sidenote, I addressed the lynch situation and my actions during it a bit earlier to Miltonkram.
I don't know how this thread became so dead since Day 1. It's really hurting the discussion that a couple of active posters do all the talking, while the rest just stay silent. We need more contribution from almost everyone right now (with the exception of those who have now been active). I really do not understand all your reactions to the "bussing" comment from heist. Vivax took a total 180 degree turn from his 100%townie read on suki into voting him... Also I already addressed some weak points in s0lstice's case, which simply do not convince me that heist is scum.
Let's look at it this way. Player A thinks player B is Mafia and player C is town. Even so, player A assumes that player C is Mafia while accusing player B! This contradiction is what got my attention. Still, I agree now that it's not good enough to lynch for. It's possible that he just disregarded player C's alignment completely and thought about player B's alignment in isolation, so that his vote for player C (after already reaching a critical amount of votes) was seen as a possible bus attempt (even though player C was a town read for him, he was still considering the possibility of player B bussing player C).
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Back... Too bad I wasn't around to see the lynch unfold (early wake up for today), but in the end, I doubt I would have done anything differently. Vivax's behaviour at the end was certainly strange, but it wasn't enough of a reason to suddenly vote Heist so close to the deadline, risking a no-lynch.
This might help Mafia in choosing their night kill, but I'm going to update my reads on the remaining players based on these two flips (Vivax and Superouman) and other developments.
sciberbia
Has shared his reads very openly throughout the game and acted accordingly without any inconsistencies in logic. If he were to be Mafia, I would be extremely shocked.
Verdict: very likely town
austinmcc
Was the driving force for lynching suki (as Ange777) and seemed to care about the lynch target for today as well, even if it wasn't correct. I find it hard to believe he's Mafia either.
Verdict: very likely town
Miltonkram
I've been too focused on his early posts to see the big picture: there's a potential townie logic behind his whole filter, even in early game, if you look closely enough. Sometimes it's bad logic, but it's always there. No post in his filter makes me think "this is driving Mafia agenda for certain". He seems to care about catching Mafia and isn't wishy-washy in his posts. I also liked this post:
On June 05 2012 07:06 Miltonkram wrote: Can we wait on analysis until we have something to analyze please? Thank you.
Some players started showing uncertainty about Vivax's alignment close to the deadline (after pushing him for a long time as very likely Mafia) or even called for a no-lynch instead of lynching him (lol), but Miltonkram didn't waver despite Vivax's strange posting. He didn't call for a no-lynch or plan an "escape route" for the inevitable flip. His whole filter and especially his play on Day 2 makes me think he's town.
Verdict: pretty likely town
Eishi_Ki
Hasn't still committed to (or even pursued) much of anything, merely bandwagoning on Ange777 and then Vivax. Passive play that doesn't point to almost anything. Not a good lynch choice for Day 3, but something to keep an eye on.
Verdict: neutral
Unforgiven_ve
A lot of things point to him being Mafia:
- Trying to get a no-lynch for Day 2 (information denial / confusion) - Very certain that suki would flip Mafia (bussing?) - Certain that Vivax would flip town (buying credibility?) - Promoting the correctness of his own reads (trying to buy credibility by using the information available as Mafia?)
Still, him being Mafia would mean that they decided to go for a double bus (or at least a bus) pretty early on, which doesn't seem too likely especially in a newbie game. That's why he's not a primary suspect for me.
Verdict: neutral
heist
- Flip-flopping about suki's alignment - Weird assumption of Vivax bussing suki (although this isn't too conclusive as I conceded earlier) - s0Lstice's night kill would be most easily explained by heist being Mafia (although this is WIFOM)
ShiaoPi
Nothing that would really make me think he's town (except his recent activity), but plenty to make me think he's Mafia:
- Vaguely defensive of suki (a confirmed Mafia) and also quite defensive of heist (another pretty likely Mafia at this point) - Comfortable with voting Vivax for the whole Day 2... Then suddenly he's a neutral read just before deadline?? What the heck? How does self-voting make him look townish? Looks more like he was already planning for an escape route from the flip's fallout than actually reading Vivax as neutral all of a sudden. - Suspecting Eishi_Ki with pretty flimsy reasoning (just suki saying he's town?) - Suspecting me for having too little content, although if he had bothered to look at my previous newbie game (as vanilla townie), I had much less content compared to "filler" in that game - I think I've done a MUCH better job this time around on avoiding spam/filler, but it's just my nature, I like to write even if there's not too much to say
I'll be voting for heist or ShiaoPi on Day 3, unless something very drastic happens.
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On June 05 2012 11:41 Unforgiven_ve wrote: To austincc. His post shows a pretty standard townie play, his reasoning defending suki were valid for a Newbie townie, his actitude and his defense were good enoguh for me, the problem here is We are dealing whit a bunch of a sheeps who let mafia (read heist- xatalos) lead their way of thought, They are triying since the begginingg of the game to take town leadership whit lame posts and triying to look helpful, their starting strategy (I'm sure) Was to be in the spotlight and when the town chooses a innocent just let them go for it whitout commiting too much. Compare day1 and day2 around Lynch time. See their voting pattern.
Heist is mafia, I'm 75% sure about xatalos
You continue to promote your own correctness... How is that a townie thing to do? If you were so sure Vivax was town, why didn't you try to switch the lynch like sciberbia tried? And why did you suggest a no-lynch before the deadline? And why would me "looking helpful" or "leading town" be Mafia traits, seriously? I have a hard time deciding if you're just a suboptimal townie or Mafia (and overdoing the townie act pretty hard...).
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On June 05 2012 22:46 ShiaoPi wrote:Show nested quote +On June 05 2012 22:02 Xatalos wrote: --snipped--
ShiaoPi
Nothing that would really make me think he's town (except his recent activity), but plenty to make me think he's Mafia:
- Vaguely defensive of suki (a confirmed Mafia) and also quite defensive of heist (another pretty likely Mafia at this point) - Comfortable with voting Vivax for the whole Day 2... Then suddenly he's a neutral read just before deadline?? What the heck? How does self-voting make him look townish? Looks more like he was already planning for an escape route from the flip's fallout than actually reading Vivax as neutral all of a sudden. - Suspecting Eishi_Ki with pretty flimsy reasoning (just suki saying he's town?) - Suspecting me for having too little content, although if he had bothered to look at my previous newbie game (as vanilla townie), I had much less content compared to "filler" in that game - I think I've done a MUCH better job this time around on avoiding spam/filler, but it's just my nature, I like to write even if there's not too much to say
I'll be voting for heist or ShiaoPi on Day 3, unless something very drastic happens.
I'll just tag along your list: -Can you point me to the post where I defended suki? -I agree that you might have some suspicions on me for my behaviour just before the vote. I simply cannot fathom why he voted himself and refused to really regard the multiple cases against him. I see no motivation for scum to vote themselves, which was the reason for my posts where I stated my confusion. Regarding your opinion on an escape route. I could have easily unvoted if I really wanted to stay clear of the fallout, I did not since I said "a no-lynch is just as bad" and I still stand by it. Yes it sucked that we got one of our own, but a no-lynch would have been worse in regards of gathering information. We now have 2 confirmed (albeit dead) townies to look through. -In my case against Eishi I did state that it is a weak suspicion, I encouraged him to post more, but sadly he seems unable to due to RL constraints. I would say it is quite important with whom and how suki interacted as he is a confirmed scum so a soft-defense from a confirmed mafia player is in my opinion nothing to scoff at. Especially if that player has not had a big presence in this game until now. -Isn't that last argument kind of not an argument against me? I fail to see how it makes me scummy to suspect you (besides OMGUS) based on filler content. What is important is this game not a past game. On another note: Show nested quote +On June 05 2012 22:02 Xatalos wrote: Back... Too bad I wasn't around to see the lynch unfold (early wake up for today), but in the end, I doubt I would have done anything differently. Vivax's behaviour at the end was certainly strange, but it wasn't enough of a reason to suddenly vote Heist so close to the deadline, risking a no-lynch.
This might help Mafia in choosing their night kill, but I'm going to update my reads on the remaining players based on these two flips (Vivax and Superouman) and other developments. Why help mafia in choosing the night kill? I am not against night discussion (it might help our blues after all) but does that bolded part only strike me as weird?
You (well, more accurately o.Golden_ne) "kind of" defended suki here with deflection (even more suspicious than defending straight):
On June 01 2012 14:20 O.Golden_ne wrote: @Sciberbia. I'm uncertain of suki at the moment. but i'm worried that a bandwagon is forming on him. we need to rationally consider a few options. i need to mull over suki's filter a while longer before condemning him. I feel that we may be more prosperous lynching some lurchers first, because as far as scumminess goes if suki is mafia (or anyone for that matter) chances are they'll keep digging themselves a hole if we can see it this early. I'm just so super wary of lurker now because of their potentially game changing absence.
That's definitely the most suspicious interaction with suki so far in the game...
How is self-voting uncharasteristic for Mafia? Maybe he could have hoped to trick someone into unvoting (as Unforgiven_ve suggested soon after) to cause a no-lynch or just to confuse the discussion. I don't see why you thought he was townish/neutral after such a stunt.
Hmm. Okay, your suspicion of Eishi_Ki isn't that bad, although still with weak reasoning. Could be aiming for an easy prey (mislynch) as well.
Yeah, maybe it was a slight OMGUS to suspect you for suspecting me. It's not bad to criticize for filler content, although if you look at my last game as town, I have way less filler content now, so it's not really a huge point. So I remove this point from the list, but you shouldn't still ignore it as you seem to do.
I was just saying that last night I didn't want to share my town/Mafia reads before the night kill precisely to avoid aiding Mafia, but now I feel I have a bigger chance of being shot, so I didn't take risks and posted anyway before the deadline.
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On June 06 2012 02:32 ShiaoPi wrote: So your main argument against me is an action, which I did not even make...Make of it what you want, but I would not take another players actions as part of an analysis against a replacement.
That logic is just bad or outright scummy. Why wouldn't you want us to look at o.Golden_ne's filter? One lynch can decide the game, so everything has to be considered. Something can't just be forgotten without a good reason (no, giving a replacement a "fresh start" is not a good reason). By that logic, Ange777's pro-town efforts should be forgotten as well while analyzing austinmcc. There's just no sense in what you're saying.
Unforgiven_ve, I want to hear you address my list of suspicious points about you, as well as austinmcc's inquiry. heist, where are you? My list of suspicious points about you is pretty short right now, but Unforgiven_ve makes less sense as Mafia than you considering how Day 1 went, so you have a long way to go if you don't want to be lynched next.
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On June 06 2012 03:37 ShiaoPi wrote:Show nested quote +On June 06 2012 03:20 Xatalos wrote:On June 06 2012 02:32 ShiaoPi wrote: So your main argument against me is an action, which I did not even make...Make of it what you want, but I would not take another players actions as part of an analysis against a replacement. That logic is just bad or outright scummy. Why wouldn't you want us to look at o.Golden_ne's filter? One lynch can decide the game, so everything has to be considered. Something can't just be forgotten without a good reason (no, giving a replacement a "fresh start" is not a good reason). By that logic, Ange777's pro-town efforts should be forgotten as well while analyzing austinmcc. There's just no sense in what you're saying. Unforgiven_ve, I want to hear you address my list of suspicious points about you, as well as austinmcc's inquiry. heist, where are you? My list of suspicious points about you is pretty short right now, but Unforgiven_ve makes less sense as Mafia than you considering how Day 1 went, so you have a long way to go if you don't want to be lynched next. Why is that logic bad/scummy? We are pretty much playing a behavioural analysis game and therefore I just pointed out that taking things a person did not do to analyse him does not always bring up coherent results as I am not Golden and he isn't me. I also never said that you should not look at Golden's filter. You are trying to read something within my posts that isn't there.
The problem is that you have the same alignment as o.Golden_ne, so o.Golden_ne's actions are equally important as your own actions when determining your alignment. It's the same when there's a hydra player (2+ players on one account): you have to consider every post, no matter who posted it. The way how you downplay the importance of o.Golden_ne's posts can be seen as either misguided policy-making or deflecting dangerous attention away from them.
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Well, that wasn't too shocking :/ I pretty much agree with sciberbia's final Mafia reads, so lynching heist seems like the best option for today.
##Vote heist
I came back here just to see the night kill before falling asleep, but now I really need some sleep. I'll post more detailed thoughts tomorrow. ShiaoPi, do you still think heist is townie?
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What's going on here? Only three short posts since I went to sleep yesterday? Almost half of this day has already gone to waste. Everyone, you should post your reads and reasoning to get things moving already -.-
I'm pretty sure the last 2 Mafia are between heist, ShiaoPi and Unforgiven_ve. heist seems like the most obvious Mafia - it's telling that nobody (except ShiaoPi) has seen him as a town read, and he was the prime suspect for both s0Lstice and sciberbia before they were killed.
If heist flips Mafia, ShiaoPi would be the most logical third Mafia. He's simply had too many suspect interactions with both suki and heist. If heist flips town (which I find hard to believe at this point), Unforgiven_ve would be more likely Mafia than ShiaoPi. Unforgiven_ve has been shouting "hey, I'm town, my reads are 100% assured and correct, can you see I'm not Mafia yet?" at every turn, but it would be pretty stupid play (although not impossible, looking at his posting...) if he took his act far enough to tunnel both of his teammates. That's really nonsensical, but then again, so has been his general posting style...
The current vote count is 2 for heist (me, Unforgiven_ve). Miltonkram's latest post indicates that he'd be willing to lynch heist for today. That means one more vote is needed for the lynch to go through.
ShiaoPi, Miltonkram and austinmcc: what are your thoughts on heist, ShiaoPi and Unforgiven_ve?
Eishi_Ki, why did you even join this game if you're not going to play it? Or maybe you're just actively lurking? It doesn't really look like that, but anything's possible. Your latest post is 2 days old... So what are your thoughts on heist, ShiaoPi and Unforgiven_ve?
Unforgiven_ve, why do you actually think heist is 100% Mafia and what's your reasoning for randomly saying I'm "75% Mafia"...? What are your thoughts on ShiaoPi?
heist, what are your Mafia reads now that Vivax and Superouman flipped town? Are you still "comfortable" with lynching Unforgiven_ve? What are your detailed opinions on every player right now?
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On June 07 2012 03:42 Miltonkram wrote: I'm willing to lynch heist. If he flips red then I think ShiaoPi is scum too. If he flips town then I'll have to pursue other leads such as Eishi_Ki, Unforgiven or Xatalos. I haven't been around much because my sister got in a car accident while the rest of my family is out of town. She'll be ok, but I have to drive out to my family's place and take care of her for a while. I should be back with plenty of time before the lynch deadline, but just in case I don't here is my vote.
##Vote: heist
Well, our opinions don't seem to differ too much... Although if you actually read my metagame, you'd see how I have much less "filler content" than I had in my previous game (as town). Good recovery for your sister anyways
What I most want to hear right now are ShiaoPi's and austinmcc's thoughts on heist. ShiaoPi, how does heist read for you right now, and how about Unforgiven_ve? austinmcc, you seem suspicious of Unforgiven_ve, but are you going to vote for heist today?
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On June 07 2012 11:30 Unforgiven_ve wrote: Milton, What about Xatalos?
Could you finally tell me why I'm such a likely Mafia? Just for pushing your lynch Day 1? And what's your opinion on ShiaoPi (I know heist is 100% Mafia for you without much reasoning whatsoever...)? I still don't think you're anyhow "confirmed town" based on your stance toward suki... Just less likely Mafia than otherwise. And things like leaving these unhelpful one liners everywhere aren't helping you.
austinmcc, Eishi_Ki, ShiaoPi, heist, where have you all been? Most of Day 3 has already passed and you haven't posted at all. Get posting before the deadline! I'll have to be offline for a while, but I can check the thread irregularly from my phone, so I should somehow be able to post for today. I'll be back home a couple of hours before the deadline.
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On June 07 2012 20:18 ShiaoPi wrote:First of regarding my opinion on heist: I have already outlined in earlier posts how he feels kind of townie to me, so I will not repeat myself here, in regards of scumminess there are several things right now which feel a little bit off. -Lack of activity (weak one I admit it ) -The last post from him with his vote on Vivax, seems a bit like sheeping to me or just OMGUS. Regarding the voting pattern I would not say he is the scummiest. Xatalos is way more reluctant to vote suki.. + Show Spoiler +On June 02 2012 06:49 Xatalos wrote:Show nested quote +On June 02 2012 06:41 Unforgiven_ve wrote: To xatalos again, when I say tomorrow I mean day 2. ... I'm reading and directly responding From my phone Hmm, okay. Looks like some of your contradictions are just communication errors. Something to slightly lessen my suspicions, but I'll reserve my judgement until the deadline. I feel bad about this but since so many are AFK / disinterested, I have to ensure the lynch on a probable townie. At least this will make things a lot clearer. ##Unvote ##Vote Suki This is his votepost and recheck the thread he votes after Heist switches from unforgiven to suki. The lynch on suki is already ensured. So his vote does not make any sense. Even if golden had popped in in the last second there was no way for him to change the outcome of the vote. Furthermore Xatalos was the first to jump on the Unforgiven Suspicions. Conclusively I would not support a heist lynch, the strongest argument seems to be the voting pattern, but Xatalos is way more fishy in that regard. I would advocate a lynch on Xatalos instead, going to outline my thoughts in the next post.
I'm on my phone right now and in a bit of a hurry, so I'll post more later, but I just have to comment on this.
1) I had already said I wouldn't let a no-lynch happen no matter what, so the exact timing for my vote on suki doesn't matter much. I could have done it an hour earlier or just a minute before the deadline... The end result would have been the same. 2) I probably typed the vote earlier than heist, but he ninja'd me while I was typing a bit more than just "##Vote suki" like he did, so... At the time of writing I thought my vote attained the majority. 3) Yes, I was the first to suspect Unforgiven_ve, very early on Day 1. I didn't start suspecting him once Ange777 started seeming more and more townish: I just wanted to lynch the more likely Mafia out of Unforgiven_ve and suki.
You already managed to save heist yesterday, and it's looking more and more like you're trying to seal your victory by lynching me instead for today. The more you post, the more suspicious your connection with suki and heist seems.
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On June 07 2012 21:54 ShiaoPi wrote: I'm on my phone right now and in a bit of a hurry, so I'll post more later, but I just have to comment on this.
1) I had already said I wouldn't let a no-lynch happen no matter what, so the exact timing for my vote on suki doesn't matter much. I could have done it an hour earlier or just a minute before the deadline... The end result would have been the same. 2) I probably typed the vote earlier than heist, but he ninja'd me while I was typing a bit more than just "##Vote suki" like he did, so... At the time of writing I thought my vote attained the majority. 3) Yes, I was the first to suspect Unforgiven_ve, very early on Day 1. I didn't start suspecting him once Ange777 started seeming more and more townish: I just wanted to lynch the more likely Mafia out of Unforgiven_ve and suki.
You already managed to save heist yesterday, and it's looking more and more like you're trying to seal your victory by lynching me instead for today. The more you post, the more suspicious your connection with suki and heist seems.
1) Heist said the same thing, why is his vote-switch scummier than yours? 2) Possible as timestamps are not far apart 3) Heist was actually one of the few who did not feel like pushing ange777 immediately, he was not part of the bandwagon on her, so if he is scum why did he stay out of it?
Yes, I admit I have a pretty sure townie read on him (besides his lack of activity since day 3) and therefore I am not afraid to defend him against accusations. IF he is scum like you are claiming, well sucks for me and my reading abilities then.[/QUOTE]
1) Have I ever even suspected heist for his vote switch as a major reason in the first place? I suspected his weird behaviour (flip-flopping his stance on suki, appearing indecisive and panicking with the lynch, assumption of Vivax bussing suki while suki was apparently a town read for him...). It would have been pretty pointless/bad for me as Mafia to vouch for suki's townieness while his lynch had clearly been inevitable for a long time. 2) Yep... 3) Dunno, maybe just to appear more townie. Why would I push heist instead of Vivax on Day 2 if I was Mafia? Why would I risk my credibility by defending suki (the inevitable lynch) openly as Mafia?
I'll have to read your full case later, not for your sake, but to explain the reasonings behind my potentially weird plays...
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While reading through ShiaoPi's case against me, I had to wonder, why is he going so all-in to save heist? That's when I came to a realization: this is practically LYLO already! Let's assume for a moment that Eishi_Ki is town and heist & ShiaoPi are Mafia... Then it all suddenly makes sense.
A) Eishi_Ki has been posting less and less, so it's looking pretty likely that he will be modkilled at the deadline -> 4 town left. B) Heist votes for me at the last minute to avoid a modkill. C) A mislynch (me) now -> 3 town left. C) Mafia night kill -> 2 town left. D) 2 Mafia vs 2 town -> Mafia has achieved its win condition.
So: ShiaoPi trying to desperately switch the lynch from heist to me isn't all that surprising, after all. This day will basically already decide the game one way or another. Lynching heist will lead to town victory, a mislynch will lead to certain Mafia victory. There's just no way we can afford a mislynch now.
Before going into the main case, just some comments to ShiaoPi's latest attack: 1) heist's stance on suki has definitely not been solid. Now you're just twisting facts. Go read sciberbia's filter where he nicely collected the evicence on this. I conceded earlier that heist's excessive usage of capslock there wasn't a good argument, since he did that a lot in other posts, but you should definitely see *some* kind of a panic in his style of posting there. Same with the bussing comment, I conceded that it wasn't the best argument, but still held some weight. 3) You say doing something would be stupid for a Mafia heist, but when I do something equally stupid for a Mafia Xatalos, it suddenly doesn't count? Just read my filter again - without confirmation bias - and you'll see that my play makes very little sense as Mafia. Much, much less than for heist. Although I doubt that's really relevant to your interests anyway...
Now, into the main case...
1) "Filler/moderating content", as you put it, can be a sign of Mafia wanting to look helpful. It can also be a sign of a townie who has A) a lot of time in his hands and B) not enough solid reads to post 100% purely about them. You seem to ignore that option, for some reason... Just look at my history. I have a TON of "filler/moderating content" when I play town. Not so much when I play Mafia.
2) I don't see how it's scummy to suspect a suspicious player, then start looking elsewhere when your suspicions are reduced somewhat. It would actually be scummy to continue tunneling a player while he starts showing signs of towniness.
3) I didn't really have a solid Mafia read at that point, and most people wanted to just lynch a lurker (yourself included - I mean o.Golden_ne), I was more supportive of lynching the more cautious and lurky lurker (Ange777) over the merely frustrating lurker (Superouman).
4) If you consider that as a "soft" (more like pretty clear IMO) defense of suki, then your (o.Golden_ne's) vague defense of suki earlier was softer than soft, and massively more suspicious. Still you keep dismissing that post and claiming it shouldn't be considered while analyzing yourself, the replacement.
5) suki was away for the unfolding of the lynch (while Unforgiven_ve was not), but she had posted a lot of well thought-out posts with both real opinions and reasoning - while Unforgiven_ve had just posted pretty much weird stuff without reasoning to back up his opinions. Although Unforgiven_ve was online at that moment and suki was not, I considered suki to truthfully be the more active and helpful poster of these two (in hindsight, she was Mafia, but we're talking about that moment in time).
6) I already mentioned that as I was typing my vote, the majority hadn't yet been attained, but heist ninja'd me to probably try and buy some "credibility" over me. But in the end, it doesn't really matter who voted first... The vote was already settled. We both had mentioned earlier that we were pro-lynch and would consolidate to prevent a no-lynch, so a no-lynch wasn't going to happen anyway.
7) You continue to bash me for "sheeping" arguments, but if there's a good argument already mentioned by another (now dead) player, why shouldn't I also take it into consideration while deciding my vote? As is said: every idea has already been invented at some point in history, but there's nothing wrong with reusing old ideas. And I actually did add my own observations: the emotionality/hastiness (although proven wrong), the panic, the bussing comment...
8) How come those 4 points were already addressed before...? Considering that I focused solely on Vivax's latest "defense" post and analyzed it. Nobody else had yet even mentioned that post. I don't get this part of your case. I switched to Vivax because his defense seemed scummy and heist's defense seemed more townish at the time. Besides, if I was Mafia, I should have just retained my vote on heist... The majority of players wanted to lynch Vivax anyway, so my vote didn't change the end result at all. It would have also looked better for me to be on the "right" side of the lynch (like sciberbia and Unforgiven_ve) as opposed to voting for the mislynch. If I was Mafia, my behaviour wouldn't make any sense during Day 2.
9) Actually, this is my third game, so you should go read my two previous games. My play in this game has been similar to my previous game (town), and very different from my first game (Mafia). That should be telling already. I don't know how my play is non-committal considering my hard stances of heist+you being the remaining Mafia team and my high town reads of several players during the game (Cattivik/Vivax, sciberbia, Ange777/austinmcc...).
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Seriously, this is why I hate lurkers/inactives -.- They just ruin the game for everyone. Why even join if you can't afford the time to post once every 3 days? With so many lurkers, there's simply no way to know who is actively lurking and who is simply being inactive.
I'm still for lynching heist, because he might be just waiting for his time to vote at the last minute. Then again, if he'll just get modkilled, it wouldn't make a difference either way.
If we assume that Eishi_Ki is town and getting modkilled (so inactive, I don't have my hopes up for him appearing...):
A) heist is Mafia and waiting to vote just before the deadline: in this case we should definitely lynch him B) heist is town/Mafia and simply not online: in this case it doesn't matter either way, he'll just get modkilled
Looking at these two options, I see absolutely no harm in lynching heist. He already has 3 votes, and we agreed to lynch every day at the start. austinmcc, your vote for Unforgiven_ve is basically a vote for no-lynch at this point. So why not vote for heist in case situation A happened to be true? A no-lynch would lead to the same result as voting for heist in situation B, but a no-lynch would lead to Mafia victory in case A.
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If Toad is willing to replace them both, we should still lynch heist. A no-lynch would just be bad in every way.
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On June 08 2012 05:18 Miltonkram wrote: Was away for a bit.
If we have 2 mafia active at the moment and heist and Eishi_Ki don't show up then town loses no matter what. Let's assume we do have at least 4 active townies. If all the active townies move their votes onto someone who would get modkilled either way, we can make sure we don't lose more players than we have to. Of the two, heist looks scummier to me and Eishi_Ki could very well have lost interest in the game given his posting patterns. Thoughts?
I agree fully. If we just no-lynch and heist is Mafia waiting for his time to vote, it's GG no matter what. If neither of them is coming back, there's still no harm in lynching heist.
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Sorry, had to leave the computer for a while. Looks like heist returned after all (although I don't know why he didn't wait until the last moment to vote... maybe afraid of austinmcc switching in the end?). austinmcc, please do look hard at heist. There's not much time left and we really need a lynch.
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What the heck? How will a no-lynch "give us more time", ShiaoPi? Unless you mean as in "give us, heist and ShiaoPi, more time to night kill townies"?
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On June 08 2012 06:51 Unforgiven_ve wrote: OP: if there's a no lynch toda, please kill me and reveal my role. I won't make you lose Time whit this horrible players.
Unfortunately, I have to agree with you for once... It's just too obvious that heist is Mafia. Whoever of ShiaoPi/austinmcc is town (most likely austinmcc), I feel ashamed for you -.-
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