Pick Your Power: Redux
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Qatol
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Qatol
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On May 07 2012 20:19 syllogism wrote: I probably won't be playing but voting PYP since qatol wants to play that. Nomination mechanic is interesting, but also sounds like it could be quite frustrating. Also the description refers to "WIFOM", which is another strike against it. ##vote PYP Awww. Thank you! | ||
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Also, no lynch-surviving veteran. | ||
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On May 09 2012 01:41 GMarshal wrote: If you ask for the list, you must save someone that night. So this applies even if you think only mafia members will be dying (you think the mafia's night kill has been blocked)? (Assuming witch is town, of course.) If this is true, could you please change the role description to say: "You must give one of them a life-saving potion that will prevent them from dying."? | ||
Qatol
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On May 09 2012 05:45 talismania wrote: Very true, toad. are pregame announcements allowed? If so I'll totally announce what my number picks would be because I will pick the same regardless of alignment. Please don't. I don't want to get into metagaming too much before the game starts, but for now, please don't. Edit: This is directed at you too, Toadesstern. You guys are having discussions we should be talking about once the game has started, not now when nobody will doubt your motives. On May 09 2012 06:32 Radfield wrote: I'd like to coach this game GM. I won't have time to play, but I'd like to follow along. I've played in 4 PYP games, and I think I excel at this format and have good advice to give players who are new to the format. Pretty please, be my coach? (I'm not entirely joking - it has been a long time since I've played.) | ||
Qatol
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On May 10 2012 08:03 wherebugsgo wrote: why would 6 : 9 and 6:20 be placed ahead of 1:1? If the first number is the same then they're put to the back and the second number is counted. What's the purpose of the second number then? Like, 6 : 9 should be second, 6:20 should be third, and 7:4 should be fourth. Then comes 1:1, 7:1, and 7:2 last. Agreed. It makes no sense that a selection that double clashes is placed above a selection that single clashes. Otherwise, the second number holds no meaning except as a tiebreaker between people with the same first number. Edit: To be clear, I think the numbers should be arranged as follows: [19,19] [6,9] [6,20] [7,1] [7,4] [1,1] [1,1] [7,2] [7,2] First you have numbers where the first number doesn't clash. Then you have numbers with a clash of the first number, ordered first by number of players clashing and then numerically by first number. Next you have the numbers which clash on both numbers, ordered first by number of players clashing and then numerically by first number. That seems to be the way that makes the most sense and makes both numbers meaningful. If you think some other way makes more sense, that's fine (just please explain it one more time - I'm still confused from your example earlier). | ||
Qatol
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On May 10 2012 09:45 Ace wrote: I love this part of the game. You're just happy it's GMarshal I'm debating this with and not you any more. | ||
Qatol
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On May 10 2012 13:02 Ace wrote: Wasn't this the way I did it in the original PYP? Meh I think as long as people realize picking a unique first number is the real way to "win" the point gets across. But what if everyone clashes? Suddenly all of this becomes important! | ||
Qatol
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On May 11 2012 17:39 Ace wrote: If there is an SK I'm rooting for him/her to win. EDIT: My last post in this thread, didn't realize game is starting. Game isn't starting until Monday! Feel free to provide commentary until then! | ||
Qatol
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On May 12 2012 12:47 GMarshal wrote: Its a completely idiotic play, but I don't see why not, I mean I allow self voting. Can the SK choose not to stab? How about stabbing himself? Would he die? | ||
Qatol
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On May 13 2012 02:11 GMarshal wrote: Sure, sure, no (bulletproof, unless he was role blocked) Just making sure bulletproof also applies to stabbing. | ||
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Qatol
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On May 15 2012 02:31 Qatol wrote: First things first: do NOT post your number selections. If you have posted them, consider changing it. I'm making another post to explain why. Okay, let me explain. It plays into the mafia's hands to tell everyone what you will be picking. It is in the town's best interests to have as many clashes as possible. Townies informing the thread of their selections helps the mafia control where they will be picking. Because role assignment for the first few spots is generally forced (and it seems likely this will be the case again), the mafia are able to grab the "assigned" roles they actually want by picking at the assigned spot or earlier. You might argue that the town should kill them for deviating from the role assignments, but this has been an ineffective deterrant in previous games (the town tends to get sidetracked and townies tend to be just as likely to deviate from these plans as mafia/SK are). Furthermore, it allows the mafia to stay out of the "assigned" roles they do not wish to have - this is also bad for the town because we want the mafia stuck with no role or with a role they cannot use effectively without becoming suspicious. Instead, the town would much prefer the number selections to be as random as possible. An ideal situation for the town would be for everyone to select the exact same numbers - that way the mafia have literally no control over where they will be picking. In such a situation, unless they get very lucky, they will have to adjust their gameplan and potentially the roles they aim for because of the clashing. They may wind up with a far weaker slate of roles (or even missing on a few picks entirely) and this should be the goal of the town during the number selection and drafting phases. | ||
Qatol
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First of all, we need to consider the town's goals (in order of importance): 1. Prevent the Mafia and Serial Killer from killing townies quickly 2. Organize and minimize distractions 3. Prevent the Mafia and Serial Killer from grabbing roles which help them 4. Maximize the number of town blues Remember, the game is a marathon for the town, but a race for the Mafia and Serial Killer. They want the town whittled down as quickly as possible before the town gets a chance to organize and effectively hunt them down. With this in mind, there is one very important thing to remember when looking at the setup: The mafia only have 1 KP! As such, it means that controlling the KP has got to be a focus in this game. If the town remains focused and minimizes dead townies at night, it will win. Moreover, there is exactly 1 role with perpetual KP: CPR Doctor. Therefore, we have to deny CPR Doctor. I realize that it isn't possible to deny this role completely, but we have to make it dangerous for the mafia/SK to consider selecting this role. Furthermore, after CPR Doctor has been selected, I propose that the role is not used, at least not early. Do not consider it a double lynch. That was the mistake we made in PYP1. It is simply a fact that the town gains information as the game goes along and a large town later in the game is at a huge advantage. Uninformed shots are an easy way to lose the game quickly because you wind up shooting misguided townies. We can figure out whether or not it is being used based upon the number of people dying at night (Mafia get 1 kill, SK gets 1 kill, Vigi, Angry Vigi, CPR, and JOAT are the only roles with night kills). On May 15 2012 02:08 sandroba wrote: I disagree completely with this attitude, at least this early in the game, because I'm relatively sure 2 of your first 3 shots will be innocents, and that's not a trade I want to make. (I'm not saying anything about your scumhunting abilities in particular, just noting that most vigi hits hit townies, especially early in the game when the ratios are higher.)I would totally pick cpr. Give me kp and I'll give you dead scum. On May 15 2012 03:35 sandroba wrote: Town does not want CPR Doctor to be used early. CPR Doctor is not a good pick for use as town.You guys are missing the point. The point is to deny roles that should never be used as town and are very good picks as mafia. CPR or a couple others mentioned are going to be used and wanted as both alignments. So it doesn't really makes sense to deny them. Beyond CPR, only 1 other role is so dangerous it justifies being assigned based upon drafting order: the Janitor. The ability to take away the flip information is far too strong of an ability to give to the Mafia. It greatly impairs the town's ability to organize and analyze based upon interactions between players in the thread. While roles like JOAT and Roleblocker are certainly powerful roles, neither of them has the ability to be anywhere near as game-alteringly powerful as CPR and Janitor. Godfather is not that strong at all. Sure it avoids alignment checks. So what? Framer is far more dangerous due to its flexibility to target other players. Heck, Bullet Bill and Role Cop can still find the Godfather! The KP ability of the Godfather only triggers when he is being lynched, and a 1:1 trade of a townie for a mafia member is pretty much always worth the exchange. There are definitely more dangerous roles out there. I'm not worried about the mafia using the copycat to copy CPR doctor either, because if they want to do such a thing, they need to figure out a way to stop the day 1 lynch or kill the CPR doc before the day 1 lynch (so they have to use Day Vigi or Pardoner). If they use Day Vigi, then they just donated a mafia member to have CPR doctor. We can live with that. And if they use Pardoner, they probably use up his ability on a townie and they still might not get the right role copied thanks to medics and the order GMarshal resolves the kills. Beyond those two roles, I think players should choose whichever role they want/feel comfortable using/ want to make sure the mafia don't get, including CPR or Janitor. If you're so worried that the mafia will let the role slide down to a lower slot, use your pick on the role and prevent it. At least the threat of such a thing happening should make the mafia think twice about doing something like that. While it is obviously quite strong for the town to get a lot of roles, you don't want to do so at the expense of giving the mafia/SK the flexibility of getting the roles they want (especially with low picks) or telling the mafia/SK who has what role. 15 vanilla townies vs. 4 vanilla scum vs. 1 vanilla SK is also very town-favored if the mafia only have 1 KP. One thing to consider though is the protection roles: On May 15 2012 02:48 Barundar wrote: I disagree with this sentiment. Protection roles are every bit as valuable as information or killing roles. You shouldn't only be looking to take medic/jailkeeper if you are low on the list. If you are higher on the list and feel comfortable with the role, or you are worried that the role will not be picked/ the role will be sniped early, grab it higher up! Having those roles in the game is very important for continuing to slow down the night killing. They are not low-tier roles.While I agree we need to randomize our powerroles, PYP:I was also super easy because we maxed out blue roles. Without being too specific to avoid snipes, if you end up lowish in the list please pickup heroes like medics and be a hero, even if it's not a superman you can still win the game for us. Don't be afraid to pick up stuff like role cop either, you can tell a lot from peoples alignment through their roles, in the PYP's I have played mafia has never been afraid to pick mafia power roles. | ||
Qatol
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Qatol
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On May 15 2012 05:03 GMarshal wrote: Mafia (Alignment) KP SK (Alignment) KP Angry Vigilante Vigilante Jack CPR Doctor Okay the Copy Cat can be controlled (barring a dayvig shot/trade). We would have to threaten a protection on the CPR picker night 1 if the lynch doesn't happen (though I still want to see a lynch happen). Angry Vigi shoots after SK, so SK would determine the Copy Cat's role if there's a medic protection. The Copy Cat is not so important that it needs to be assigned. There are definitely stronger selections out there for the mafia. | ||
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On May 15 2012 05:07 [UoN]Sentinel wrote: Agreed. Personally I'm really comfortable playing as Doc, and if I'm not one of the top five (haven't played a power role in forever so I'm interested in those as well) I might snatch that or jailkeeper up. While this is great, don't announce something like this. Keep the mafia guessing about which role you will be picking. You don't need us to validate your pick. (Though if anyone picks Tracker, I will criticize you in the postgame - it's an awful role in this format.) On May 15 2012 05:10 hiro protagonist wrote: I agree that aside from CPR doc, the janitor is towns worst nightmare. We MUST assign it. The others for assignment is CPR doc and RBer, because of the synergy that town can harnise between these roles. so that has us at something like: 1. CPR 2. Janitor 3. RB I also 100% agree with everything Qatol has said. this is a marathon for town. We should focus less on KP roles, and use old fashon analysis to kill scum. A combination of defensive roles along with DT type roles would serve us best, not that the odd vig is a bad idea though. I disagree with a few things here. First of all, I didn't say we should focus less on KP roles. I just said that we shouldn't put a huge emphasis on grabbing them. I'm sure the mafia are thinking very hard about grabbing Vigiliante for its 2 night kills, for example, so townies should consider grabbing it first. Remember, each vanilla goon/SK is a gigantic win for the town. That being said, the defensive roles and investigative roles will play a more active part in helping the town win (rather than the passive role of defensively picking roles such as Vigilante). Second of all, I don't think Roleblocker is so important that it must be assigned. I think the uncertainty of the mafia not knowing the location of the role is more valuable. In fact, it might actually be better to use the Jailkeeper on the CPR doctor anyways (because that protects him from dying + still prevents the shot). | ||
Qatol
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On May 15 2012 05:42 [UoN]Sentinel wrote: And I'm Liane the Evil Bunny. Your drawing skills will not serve you well mortal. Only the holy hand grenade is capable of wounding me. Come on guys. Stop spamming the thread. It makes more for us to read for absolutely no reason. | ||
Qatol
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On May 15 2012 05:50 [UoN]Sentinel wrote: Lol what were we talking about before the spam and Palmar showing up? Anyweiz, I'm wondering how good a doctor/jailkeeper would be for mafia. Seems like a really interesting concept, at least for blocking SK's shots. And JK would have a field day with all the blues. It's good for them, just like taking Vigilante or JOAT is good for the town. The denial value is relatively high. That being said, the roles still have the potential to slow the game down (by blocking SK shots), so I'm okay with the mafia using picks on them. Plus it means that they aren't taking roles to speed the game up, which we like. On top of that, there is a decent risk that a townie will take the role because of their value, so picking one of them is a gamble for the mafia. Obviously Jailkeeper is better for them than Doctor is because it can be used as a roleblocker, but people can take that into account when making their role selections. I'm not too worried about them using the roles to block night hits. | ||
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On May 15 2012 05:56 marvellosity wrote: To be simpleminded for a moment - is the general advice to pick whatever numbers you like? Pretty much. Town wants to clash with the mafia/ give them uncertainty about which numbers to pick, so pick whatever you want. | ||
Qatol
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On May 15 2012 06:42 hiro protagonist wrote: EBWOP: Basicly, I think that using roles to control the top spots picks is superior to using double picks because: *power roles that can cotrol the cpr doc are more usful later in the game when we can use the role for towns advatage. * choseing a RBer denys' the role for scum. * Double picking will lead to VTowns, but not VScums. 100% agree. We make a plan, and there is no changing it after the draft phase. I also agree that the assigned picks shouldn't be changed after the draft order is announced. I offer an alternative to double picking both Janitor and CPR: have the 3rd player randomly pick one of the two roles and select it. I'm okay with a 50/50 gamble to discourage the mafia from allowing the role to fall down. If they are wrong, they lose a member (the player who didn't select the role) AND the role. I think that's enough to discourage such a gambit. You could try to control the pick with the roleblocker instead, but then you risk having the mafia allow a role like CPR to fall and you wind up roleblocking the wrong player for a while until you figure out there's an extra KP. I still don't think roleblocker is a high priority scum pick, so the denial value is limited. And I think the town benefits a lot more from having the location of the roleblocker remain hidden. As far as the traitor goes, we can't control when or if it will be picked. But neither can the mafia. I think the best policy regarding that role is to remind everyone that whenever it is picked, it has been picked twice, usually within the top 10, so you don't tend to last long with that pick. And the player doesn't even get to join the mafia chat or anything this time. Our best policy for the time being is just to ignore the role and worry about it once the picks are in. On May 15 2012 07:32 slOosh wrote: Also I want to discuss the Copy Cat further - it says that it copies the first power role, and with the possibility that scum will take something like angry vig and shoot whoever to copy cat the janitor/cpr? Shouldn't it be a role up for denial solely because it has the capability to copy roles that are up for denial? (Unless I'm misunderstanding something here). The SK shot is resolved before the Angry Vigi's shot. So is the day 1 lynch. While the mafia shot comes first at night, there is obviously a high incentive to protect one of the first 2 players on night 1. Plus there's always the witch protection (witch is better when used night 1-2ish anyways to keep more potential blues in the game longer, slow the game down more, and reduce the risk that the witch will get shot before using the protection). I don't think the copycat is a particularly appealing role for the mafia in this kind of setup. | ||
Qatol
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On May 15 2012 08:12 Toadesstern wrote: Also someone (I think Qatol?) said something about the Tracker being a horrible choice for town. I actually like it way more than the two DT's and think it's the best information role together with gun-bob for town. What's the reasoning behind saying the Tracker is a horrible choice for town? Tracker only follows mafia/SK to the kill if they used their role to make the kill or they are vanilla. For example, a serial killer veteran would never seem to go anywhere if tracked. Similarly, a doctor mafia member protecting a teammate would be tracked to the teammate, not the mafia kill. | ||
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On May 15 2012 08:30 Toadesstern wrote: that seems stupid. Why include a tracker when mafia / SK don't have to deliver the killing blow oO Do we have that stated by GM somewhere? Can the Tracker find out about a Goon mafia or a Goon SK killing someone when following them? If that's the case, yeah Tracker is really stupid for town but I can't think of GM including a Tracker if he can't track normal mafia / SK kills. It's in the role description. On May 06 2012 03:06 GMarshal wrote: This is also how it worked in previous PYPs (PYP2 for example).Tracker Follow someone and find out the first person they visited that night. (role abilities supersede alignment based abilities for the purpose of tracking. E.G if you were to track a scum roleblocker, you would see who he roleblocked, not who he killed. If you tracked a scum Veteran, you'd see him stay home, even if he carried out a kill, as his role ability (Veteran) is what you track, not his factional kill) | ||
Qatol
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On May 15 2012 09:34 Zephirdd wrote: Anyhow, what do you guys think about the dayvig+copycat thing? Imagine, for instance, that the number 1 actually picks CPR and mafia is aware, and they picked both dayvig and copycat. Instant CPR for them, right? That said, I think town should really consider picking either dayvig or copycat when you find yourself on the first half of the draft. They're welcome to try it. I'm willing to trade an easy early mafia kill for them getting CPR. Plus if they happen to whiff on selecting dayvig, they risk getting a copycat role which is completely useless to them (for example, alignment cop). And they risk having someone lower in the list whiffing on copycat, thus narrowing the potential CPR candidates. Doing something like that is a huge gamble for them. | ||
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On May 15 2012 10:19 PaqMan wrote: But what if the top three winners, regardless of alignment, simply choose to not follow one of the plans laid out? That's what I'm wondering, if nobody in the top 3-5 chooses CPR/Janitor/RB then should whoever gets that power claim? Who are you thinking wouldn't follow the plans? Nobody is even arguing against them right now. Are you suggesting that there are 3-5 people who think it is better to disagree and silently act on their own rather than talking about their concerns openly right now? That's pretty anti-town behavior on their part. If anyone has reservations about assigning the roles as we are discussing, please bring them forward now. However, if the plan isn't followed and someone lower in the queue happens to get the Janitor or CPR Doctor (as I mentioned earlier, you should consider all roles fair game just in case, no matter where you are in the queue - use your judgment based on your reads on the people above you and your location), then yeah, they should claim after the Copy Cat has been assigned. It creates accountability, which is never a bad thing. Note: this is only with regards to the CPR Doctor and the Janitor roles. This is not an invitation to claim your role (or lack thereof) for no reason later. It's possible that these plans won't work if the top 3 picks are all mafia/SK, but then we can figure them out via the KP numbers. And it isn't like they won't drop like flies once we figure out what happened. This is the whole point of slowing down the game - to give the town time to organize. | ||
Qatol
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Toadesstern, I'm sorry you feel like I'm stealing your thunder. It wasn't intentional. Like PaqMan said, your posts definitely aren't being ignored. Nobody is calling your ideas retarded. In fact, most of us agree with them! I'm willing to talk to you more in depth about your posting, but I don't think mid-game is the right context for that. Shoot me a PM after the game ends/ after we both die and we can talk. Also, I think I have you beat by a few years on the idea of assigning specific roles to specific draft slots. Sandroba, there is also a reason that a lot of games involving a lot of town KP end in disaster if the KP is used early (see Responsibility Mafia for example). Assigning the role does accomplish what we want to accomplish. It puts the role at a known spot in the queue, which allows the role to be roleblocked by a Roleblocker or Jailkeeper later in the queue if they wish. It also forces the mafia to take the role with the first pick if they want it. Meanwhile, if a townie gets the role, then we have effectively taken one of the most dangerous roles out of play for the mafia. Assigning the 50/50 pick for the 3rd player isn't just about denying CPR, it's also about denying Janitor. The point is we don't want to see the role used at all, it isn't just that we are worried about finding scum after the role is used (although that is a perk). Regarding the Godfather, the point everyone else has is that the Godfather role simply isn't that strong a selection for the mafia. There are far more concerning selections anyways. Plus, if you're worried about the role, just consider taking it (if you don't have a top 3 pick). This advice applies to everyone and every role. The point is that we don't want the mafia to feel safe taking anything (other than Tracker). Also, could you re-post the Carolus Magnus post on your Sandroba account? You're messing up your filter for later if you don't. Barundar/Bluelightz, the problem with denying more roles than just 2 is you wind up in a situation where the mafia has a very good idea of what each player is going to be selecting. This is problematic for a few reasons. First, the mafia/SK can simply take roles they want before they are assigned and feel relatively comfortable that they will get their role. We don't want them to feel comfortable selecting anything, especially not the roles they specifically want. We want them to have to weigh the danger that a role will be selected against the value that role brings to their team. We want to force them to select roles they don't want as much because they're worried that selecting the roles they do want will be too dangerous. Alternatively, we want them to try to select a role they really want, but miss and wind up with vanilla members. Both situations are a huge win for the town. Second, we don't want the mafia/SK to know where to shoot to hit the roles they are concerned about. The problem with assigning too many roles is the mafia/SK know where those roles are, so if we want to commit to keeping them alive, we have to use our protections on them, which gives the mafia/SK more confidence when shooting other players. We want them to spend their time shooting into players with defensive roles and/or players who have defensively selected a role but don't intend to use it. The odds that they will do such a thing go up significantly if we assign fewer roles. Barundar, the problem with your role cop plan (as mentioned by zelblade and Bluelightz) is that there aren't enough roles which can confirm role selection. Because of this, it is not worth the drawbacks (mentioned above) of assigning every role in exchange for allowing 1 role + 1 JOAT check (note: it is a role check only) + sometimes a Bullet Bill check the ability to check if people followed the plan. For all you know, the mafia may even want the role they are assigned, which causes even more problems. Regarding roles, I'm surprised people are pointing out the danger of Angry Vigilante when I find Vigilante to be far scarier. Sure Angry Vigilante bypasses the first protection. But how often do we get medic protections anyways? And what are the odds that the player shot will be protected by a medic. It allows the mafia to beat a medic and kill an experienced player night 1 if they want, but it's a one-shot ability and the mafia are still gambling that the player didn't pick something like Hider or Veteran + attracted protection or happens to be the SK. Meanwhile, Vigilante allows the mafia to take out 2 players and speed up the game that much more - a far more dangerous ability. SK Politician is a powerful selection. However, it only assists the SK in the lategame. It is the town + the mafia's job to make sure that the SK doesn't make it to the lategame. Besides, the selection isn't without its dangers - if a role check is used on the SK, it's going to be pretty obvious what his alignment is if he has Politician and hasn't claimed it. Pardoner doesn't scare me - it slows down the game and I'm more worried about the mafia speeding the game up. While it can be used to confuse the town, it isn't as devastating as other selections they could make. Remember, the mafia have to use one of their 4 role selections on this role. I think they have more value elsewhere. Misder, please read my earlier posts on the copycat. Mafia only have 1 KP, so they can't stack on anyone. SK shoots before any roles get their shots, so Mafia would lose the ability to control the copycatted role. Deconduo, I disagree with using a tiering system (labeling specific roles as picks people high in the list should consider). And I definitely disagree with you that Witch, Jailkeeper, and Hider are bad roles. Hider is probably the best defensive role out there because you are completely immune to night kills as long as you are hiding behind a low priority kill target. Personally, I think it is much stronger than Veteran. Witch and Jailkeeper are 2 of our 4 protection roles (along with Doctor and JOAT). Why on earth are you trying to take them out of play? Both of them are better selections for most town players than something like Roleblocker for example. I only partially disagree that Framers should be lynched if checked. I think Framer is a decent denial selection for a townie. However, I think this role has to come with a caveat: if you get it, you have to claim it. | ||
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Jailkeeper in particular synergizes well with CPR doctor. Generally, it's an extra doctor, but it also has the benefit of denying the use of roles you don't want to see used anyways. Alternatively, we can use it as a second roleblocker. You would take it instead of roleblocker or doctor because you think the other role is being picked or just because you want to give the game a little more flexibility. Hider is a gamber's role, but only to a certain extent. Notice that Hider does not die if he hides behind mafia any more. This means that you just have to think about the players you think the mafia/SK are unlikely to hit. The biggest benefit of Witch isn't that it reduces KP, but that it definitely automatically gives a free blocked hit. This alone makes it stronger than Veteran unless someone is silly enough to shoot the Veteran twice but not on consecutive nights. It may also be stronger than Doctor because of how hard it is to block a hit in the first place. I disagree about claiming a denial role straight away. Claim it only after the Copy Cat has been decided. We don't want to give the mafia ideas about other players to shoot and grab good roles. Say a Hider hides behind another player and then the Hider is targeted by the Angry Vigilante. Does the Hider die? It looks to me like he would not, correct? Similarly, the Witch seems to indicate that it will simply prevent someone from dying. Does this mean that the Witch protection will stop an Angry Vigilante shot? On May 16 2012 03:50 Barundar wrote: A few corrections, first bluelightz was the one suggesting the role cop plan, I'd never agree to a follow the cop scenario, but he seems to have pulled it off the table anyways. I interpret your argument against denying more roles as you don't want to have to deal with copy cat shenanigans by having scum powerroles die night 1, is that correct? If so I feel a lot better about not regulating the CC. Second angry vigi can't be used on first night, making it even less of a threat. My apologies. It was bluelightz and not you who suggested the role cop plan. My argument for denying roles is I don't want to deal with the scum having those power roles, or at least I don't want them to feel secure taking those power roles. I to force them to think on their feet because they're more likely to make a mistake that way. And if we wind up with a vanilla goon/SK, we are in much better shape. I believe the copy cat will be dealt with either by the day 1 lynch or medic protections. I don't believe the mafia will shoot into the Janitor/CPR players for fear of a doctor, which means they have to guess as to who has which role, a situation I'm okay with. If they do shoot the CPR/Janitor and run into a medic, then the SK shot determines the role of the Copy Cat, which I'm also okay with. But the best way to deal with the Copy Cat is to get a lynch off on day 1. I already have a strong candidate in mind, in fact. However, I don't want to discuss that kind of thing until we have sorted out the number selections and the drafting phase. We need to remain focused on what is going on right now. You are correct about the Angry Vigi. Nice catch. I feel a little embarrased about missing that one. | ||
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On May 16 2012 07:55 Snarfs wrote: Catching up: I'm okay with either CPR Janitor CPR/Janitor 50/50 or CPR CPR Janitor Qatol, it looks like your argument against the second option was that it didn't prevent the Janitor power from being used (please correct me if I have this wrong). However, in either situation, if mafia gets the Janitor spot on the queue, they can use it in exchange for a member of their team. Either way if Janitor is used we lynch into the Janitor spot on the queue. I also don't really mind if people post their own rankings of the roles. It can be useful for newer players who haven't seen many of these roles, such as myself, to see the discussion. As long as everyone looking for advice doesn't take it as a "you have to pick these roles in these positions", it seems more beneficial than harmful. Yeah you're right. Either way, I'm standing by my earlier position of doing CPR, Janitor, 50/50. I'm okay with people posting opinions/rankings/tiers for roles, but I am NOT okay with us trying to force a tier or order system on people. I think that should be left up to the judgment of each individual player. | ||
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On May 16 2012 13:44 talismania wrote: If people are worried about being spammy with posting their numbers then just post them at the end of a non spammy post. As paqman says it can't hurt town or help scum. I'm okay with this attitude. Posting your numbers as part of something more constructive is fine. And to practice what I preach, I picked [5][1]. Regardless, a post such as this: On May 16 2012 10:24 talismania wrote: does nothing for the town except add one more post on that page. I want people to try and read the entire thread. I also want people to remain as active as possible. Spam encourages people to skim or not read the thread right now because "there are too many pages to go through." I don't want the thread to have that effect on people. I picked 15,1 On May 16 2012 13:21 PaqMan wrote: The problem is posts such as the one I pointed out don't even qualify as "discussion." The only thing worse than silence is spam. Spam allows the mafia to blend in but still remain completely useless to the town (which is what they want to do anyways in an ideal situation). Plus, like I mentioned before, then people are less likely to want to read the thread or read the thread less carefully and miss important posts.Yepp, I don't understand that. Some discussion is always better than complete silence. Makes it too easy for scum. | ||
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Palmar, please play the game seriously or don't sign up. You're just acting like a jerk at this point. I realize you're trying to make points by mocking/parodying other posts, but it really isn't a very nice way to play and it doesn't reflect well on you as a person or mafia player. You're better than this. Everyone, just stick to the plan. Risk, even if you don't buy that CPR is dangerous, you mentioned yourself that Janitor is extremely dangerous for the mafia to have. There's your reason to prevent the Mafia from having the ability to use it. Just take it, please. You don't even need to worry about CPR, so just don't. Marvellosity, don't let the discussion here confuse/WIFOM you. You should still be randomly generating (like random.org or dice if necessary) between Janitor and CPR. We want as little predictability as possible for the mafia in the role selection process. I agree with zelblade that we shouldn't be talking about scum reads right now. I also agree with hiro protagonist that too much discussion of roles will just reveal what we are planning to pick. I also agree with PaqMan that complete silence is bad for the town because it allows the mafia to hide too easily. So I offer an alternative discussion topic which should allow some discussion of roles without revealing much about what you want to pick. Unfortunately, I couldn't figure out how to involve the people with middle picks easily because there's such a huge variance in the roles they could be selecting. Proposed discussion topics for the day Deconduo, risk.nuke, and marvellosity, feel free to jump in on any of these discussion topics. [UoN]Sentinel, Mattchew, zelblade, Bluelightz, talismania, and misder: What two pro-town roles would you like to see taken for sure by someone in the queue? These can be roles you are considering taking yourself. The point is you want to see this role in the game for sure and you think there is a chance the role will be passed over entirely. hiro protagonist, Palmar, Snarfs, me, Sandroba, and Probulous: What two roles do you think the mafia/SK want to grab early? These can be roles which will help the town a ton which you think the mafia/SK will try to deny or these can be roles which you think will help the mafia/SK significantly. These can still be roles you are considering taking yourself. Players with the middle picks can consider the responses from both groups of players. I'd like to see some comments on this idea (until say, 19:00 GMT (+00:00), which would give us 6 hours to talk about roles still, and we can speed this up if there is an overwhelmingly positive or negative response) before anyone answers these questions. I realize that it may cause a little more predictability for the mafia/SK, but it should also be effective in making sure that people in various parts of the queue are looking at important roles. More importantly, I'm a little worried that my not-quite-awake brain hasn't considered a major drawback to doing this. | ||
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On May 16 2012 23:15 zelblade wrote: @Qatol Why do you want us to reveal what roles we would like to be taken for sure? All this does is give a decent amount of information for scum considering how most people would probably pick what they feel is best - AKA what they reveal in the thread to be the best for town. This seems like its going to give mafia a rough idea of what people are going to pick, allowing them to not only snipe important roles but also discourages town from selecting stronger roles in fear of clashes. For instance, if Sentinel states that he thinks, say, medic and JOAT are important roles, scum will know that he is probably going to pick either. This not only discourages town from picking one of these really useful roles up (since they think that sentinel probably is selecting one and dont want to become a VT) but also lets scum know that he is, more likely than not, one of these roles. The point was supposed to be that people with low picks can give advice to people with high picks and vice versa. The idea was that this way people can try to give advice to players in another part of the queue without revealing their pick. That was why I specifically left out the people in the middle of the queue. Notice that the question directed towards people higher in the queue says that the role has a danger of not being picked at all. This is an attempt to allow people give advice to people in the middle/bottom of the queue without too much danger of talking about your role choice or tipping your hand in any way. Notice I also said it can be a role you want to take yourself. | ||
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On May 17 2012 00:02 risk.nuke wrote: Qatol that sort of discussion will benefit the mafia more then town. That's why I asked for comments. Can you explain why in depth? | ||
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On May 17 2012 00:08 marvellosity wrote: You obviously aren't coming across very clearly then, are you? This reads as you think discussing scumreads will cause panick and confusion. If this isn't what you meant, then write better. Guys please stop insulting each other. It isn't helping anything. | ||
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On May 17 2012 05:09 Toadesstern wrote: We all agreed to a plan before the game started. If you are going to playing anti-town I will make sure you get lynched with everything I can do. Maybe I even got the dayvig :p Toad, it only makes sense to lynch him for playing anti-town if he is also the strongest candidate out there to be mafia/SK. Trust me, he isn't. Besides, we can adapt easily enough - just have [UoN]Sentinel take Janitor. He may or may not get it depending on what marvellosity takes. But at least we have insurance. It can be frustrating for something like this to happen, but this is the best we can do right now. | ||
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On May 17 2012 05:43 Toadesstern wrote: Do you really think he can possibly be town if he ends up being NOT janitor? Don't you think a townie would have just told us about that? If he told us about that this whole situation would be no problem. We could have made a Plan-B for this scenario or everyone else saying that they won't stick to the plan. But he did not. I am not trying to get him lynched. In fact I am the guy telling people (like deconduo) that it is very much possible Risk is town and has some weird plan that in his mind imagination will somehow end up helping town while still picking Janitor to not get him lynched d1 although he looks bad right now. Unless of course we got confirmation that he actually is mafia (read: if he ends up picking something other than Janitor). I don't dispute that what he's doing is very much anti-town. That being said, I don't think he's the strongest candidate for lynch/ day vigi on day 1 for several reasons: 1. Copy Cat. There is a role out there good enough that risk.nuke is willing to call all of this onto his head for the chance of taking it. I don't want to see whatever it is copied because it's likely a pretty strong role. I'd rather go after someone a little bit lower in the picking order. 2. I have found a much stronger candidate for the day 1 lynch. 3. Yes, I think it is possible that he is town but is stubbornly doing his own thing. It happens. Look at Bill Murray in PYP1 for example. He also decided to go rogue on the town out of nowhere, but was a townie himself. At least risk.nuke told us now that he isn't picking janitor so we can do something about it. I'm not saying that he doesn't merit watching carefully in the future, but I don't want to see him lynched right now. | ||
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As promised, I give you my strong lynch target: PaqMan First, he undergoes a stark change in attitude after the game starts. When the game is still in its setup stages, he's positively giddy about the game starting. On May 11 2012 12:00 PaqMan wrote: However, once the game starts, his posting undergoes a major change. He becomes much more conservative in his posting, to the point where he might be considered apathetic about the game. He spends most of the number selection phase lurking in the background asking a question or two here and there, but not really making much of an attempt to contribute. Where did the pregame excitement go?Woot! Pretty psyched about getting in! Notice this post: On May 15 2012 10:19 PaqMan wrote: The question to ask is "why would he post something like this?" Note that nobody at the time was posting any reservations about the number selection plan at all. So why would he ask this? Because he's trying to make it look like he's involved in the discussion and making useful posts without really advancing the main discussion at all. But what if the top three winners, regardless of alignment, simply choose to not follow one of the plans laid out? That's what I'm wondering, if nobody in the top 3-5 chooses CPR/Janitor/RB then should whoever gets that power claim? These posts made part of one of his next posts even more surprising: On May 15 2012 13:20 PaqMan wrote: Then what was that comment earlier? And why have you been asking questions up to this point without giving your opinion on anything? Up to this point, you haven't contributed anything at all! We literally know your opinion on nothing. But you are still highlighting different parts of the plan.I noticed it, Toad. I tend to not comment on things if I can't make any sort of contribution. I'm not really sure how to explain this but Qatol just seems more aggressive in asserting his opinion and getting the point across, or something. But yeah don't think that your posts are being ignored. Now let's compare this to another recent game where PaqMan was a townie: Mafia 'Area' LIII He started very similarly, chomping at the bit for the game to start. However, notice his posts once the game started: On April 21 2012 10:49 PaqMan wrote: There is a HUGE difference between how he acts here. He's comfortable asserting his opinion when questioning an idea. Notice that he has done nothing of the sort in this game other than pointing out that posting numbers doesn't hurt the town if done in the context of a larger post. I like Gonzaw's idea of the vig's claiming. Only problem with that is that Scum will have a list of vig's and won't have to do any sniping.. So now that I think about it, I don't really like that idea at all lol. Town can't keep assuming things this game. It'll make an ass out of u and me. We don't know how many of what roles there are and continuous speculation isn't going to help at all. Now look at one more post from Area LIII which draws an even bigger contrast to the posts he has been making in this game: On April 21 2012 12:01 PaqMan wrote: This is a wonderful pro-town post. He points out potential flaws in a plan and suggests an improvement. He hasn't even come CLOSE to doing something like this in the current game even though all we have done so far is talk about plans! He has the ability to do so, he just hasn't.But I do agree with you VE. Giving scum any more info puts them in an even greater advantage over us. A mass vig claim would be the same as handing them a hit list. some of gonzaw's points however are pretty valid (no late-game chaos with vig claiming before lynch, etc etc). Either way, I can't see a vig following either one of y'alls policies. He claims, town lynches him and nothing is gained. He claims, chance of mafia taking him out or keeps him alive, either way there's chaos. I suggest that our vigilante (if we have one) doesn't claim at all. If he's about to be lynched then he needs to defend himself as a normal townie because claiming vig is going to create a shitstorm for us, which gives scum the upper hand. If he's going to use his kp one someone, he doesn't need to claim before or after the kill. It's going to create too much confusion and WIFOM and finger-pointing and shit. So I think that vigilantes should not make any claims this game. So, in summary, PaqMan fits the profile we should be looking for as a mafia, we saw a dramatic shift between his pre-game and current posting styles, his posts show that he is scared to give meaningful contribution to the ongoing discussion, he clearly doesn't care about the well-being of the town, and his history tells us that this is completely out of character for him. All of this adds up to Mafia. | ||
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##Vote: PaqMan As a standing policy (like most other games), I propose the following: If you vote in the voting thread, you post it here as well. That way people can get a feel for how the voting is looking and votes can't come in under the radar. | ||
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On May 17 2012 11:03 risk.nuke wrote: Lol this confirms Mattchew. Qatol you can't seriously believe anything else. No it doesn't. I would be willing to consider him as confirmed if he hadn't shot the guy with the role we were most trying to deny before the copycat is assigned. Day vigging the CPR Doctor before the day 1 lynch is an incredibly anti-town act. I still think it is possible that the mafia got CPR, Day Vigi, and Copy Cat and now there is a hidden CPR doctor on the loose. And besides, how does this do anything for confirming him not to be SK? The SK needs the game to go by quickly just as badly as the mafia do, if not more badly. A CPR slipping into unknown hands can potentially further that goal. It isn't like I'm advocating that we lynch Mattchew right now. I still think PaqMan is the best lynch target by far. I'm just saying that we shouldn't consider Mattchew as 100% townie after this. This shot does not place Mattchew above all suspicion for the remainder of the game. | ||
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On May 17 2012 11:10 [UoN]Sentinel wrote: Why would you kill one of your own just so the copycat can get the same role? Makes no sense. I can see a decent train of thought to allow such an action (assuming that the mafia picked CPR, Day Vigi, and Copy Cat). We have been talking throughout the first day about roleblocking the CPR doctor. This way, that isn't going to happen. Plus it puts a mafia member into a position to heavily mislead the town for the rest of the game. | ||
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On May 17 2012 11:48 Misder wrote: lol. dat dayvig shot. I actually had him as town too~ We now know what role Mattchew is. I think a real easy way to clear him is if we have a tracker. If we do, we know that he does not have a role ability, so if mafia does shoot, Mattchew would go to the target (I'm pretty sure that's how the mechanics work anyways). And because of this possibility, it makes it unlikely that Mattchew is scum (unless, of course they overlooked it). Anyways, it would be best if we can do this. Thoughts? Tracker doesn't work like that. The Day Vigilante ability overrides Mattchew's alignment ability. Because the Day Vigilante will never move at night, neither will Mattchew. | ||
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+ Show Spoiler + On May 17 2012 23:11 Mattchew wrote: @Barundar and Qatol and others who think I could be scum I would like to elaborate on my thought process behind shooting decon. 1. I voted (in the poll not in thread) for PYP. This is because before Palmar even spoke of it and before alignments went out, I wanted to dayvig someone 1 post into the game (as town, as scum idk what i woulda done). I firmly believe everyone voting PYP picked that setup not because they could come up with a sweet pre-game plan, but because they could almost guarantee themselves a blue role meaning they have some sort of control over the game. This is why I put so little effort into the pre-game after my first couple posts, mostly because I realized that I was going to pick the role I wanted (dayvig) so why would I expect anything else out of everyone else (I kinda hinted at all this here: + Show Spoiler + On May 15 2012 05:38 Mattchew wrote: not if i get there first... they call me quick draw mcgraw 2. The moment Decon said I am pick 1,1 I immediately thought of this + Show Spoiler + 3. I stand by what I said about the CPR Doc role. I think it leads to a lot of extra dead townies regardless of whether town or scum gets it. 4. When I saw I got the Dayvig role, I knew I was shooting immediately. To be honest, if Decon had not gotten the first pick, I would have been shooting Palmar, because I had said so. My numbers were 11,4 (11 is my favorite number, 4 is the number of Scott Stevens). I was the 5th pick so I sent in my dayvig selection literally as soon as I saw the picking order. I reared back and shot with the hopes of hitting scum, knowing that the reality was it was kinda unlikely but atleast I would probably saving the lives of a lot of others (kinda like the Batman's dilemma). Bonus :Here is a video of me (Scott Stevens) hitting Decon (Paul Kariya) + Show Spoiler + 5. The Copycat theory never entered my thought process because I had not read through the roles enough and didn't really partake in any pre-game plans. If I just gave scum a secret CPR Doc, woops! Qatol, I actually would really like to see everyone's numbers they picked. I think that contrary to your opinion there is alignment information to be extracted from the numbers. Another question I have for people is what are the chances a scum team picked copycat if I am town? Unless they were going to hardcore bus decon today to get him lynched I don't see any reason for a scum team to pick that role considering someone is most likely going to be lynched today that is mostly out of their control. 1. Not true. I definitely picked PYP for the planning aspects. I don't even like having a blue role when I get one. But this is a discussion best left for post-game or for another thread. 2. I understand the logic of this, but the reason I'm skeptical about whether or not you are actually innocent for sure is because this took a lot of thought. You clearly aren't stupid, and you clearly thought about the setup and the mafia's motivations carefully. It is just mind boggling to me that you wouldn't foresee the CPR going to the Copy Cat after your shot. Even if you hadn't thought of it, it was mentioned several times in the thread early on. I understand that you didn't really want to participate in that part of the game, but not reading the thread is simply irresponsible. It is now 15 hours after your shot and the Copy Cat hasn't claimed. I'm going to have to assume that either scum just got the CPR doctor at an undisclosed location in the queue or nobody took Copy Cat, and I'm leaning towards the former. If anyone tried to take copycat and missed, please claim it now. Copycat: you should still feel free to claim as a way of helping to clear yourself, but if you don't claim and a rolecop finds you, we are going to have to lynch you immediately. 3. I agree completely. The CPR Doctor role should never be used. It is too anti-town. 4. Now I'm confused. I reared back and shot with the hopes of hitting scum, knowing that the reality was it was kinda unlikely but atleast I would probably saving the lives of a lot of others (kinda like the Batman's dilemma). You say here it is "kinda unlikely" you were going to hit scum.But in #2 you say the following: I could not wrap my brain around scum not blocking out a townie at the top spot and trying to get the CPR doc (literally an extra KP) for themselves. This makes it seem like you thought Deconduo almost had to be mafia because of his plan and the role he would be selecting.So which was it? Did you think it was likely you were shooting scum or not? Under #2 you make it seem like you thought about deconduo's spot in the queue and its relation to the CPR doctor role very carefully. On the other hand, here you make it seem like you were just shooting to try and take the role out of the game, thinking that it was unlikely that scum had the role. Please explain. 5. How did you know that the CPR Doctor is so important to the game to warrant the thought process from #2 and #3 if you barely read through the roles and didn't look at the pre-game plans? As I mentioned earlier, I don't mind people posting their numbers, but I want it to be part of a content-filled post and not a one-liner post contributing only their numbers and nothing else. And this may be mostly moot because Barundar seems to have most of the numbers figured out (although there is a mistake - Probulous didn't send in numbers at all). Assuming you are town, I think there is still a chance the mafia had the copycat role anyways. I think there is a nonzero possibility that the scum were planning on trying for a no lynch for day 1 and then trying to grab a power role from early in the queue. Alternatively, they could have considered tricking the town into a stupid lynch on a player they think has a desirable role. Or maybe one of their members had a bad position and they figured a random role was better than the alternative. Any of the above are moves I would at least consider as scum if I wasn't entirely comfortable with the drafting positions of all of the scum members. Regarding the Janitor, there are 2 more things we need to know: 1. Marvellosity, what role did you try to take? We know you didn't get Janitor, but we don't know what role pick you sent in. 2. Risk.nuke, did you pick Janitor? If the answer is no, we don't need to know which role you did select, but if the answer is yes, it will save us from a wild goose chase. | ||
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On May 18 2012 02:16 marvellosity wrote: Qatol, I chose neither Janitor nor CPR That is what I meant in this post Understood. I misread that post. My apologies. On May 18 2012 02:36 Mattchew wrote: First of all, Quatol is the smurf player playing in Caller's game. No u in Qatol!@quatol I said that it was kinda unlikely that I were to hit scum because while I thought my logic was good and all (making me at the time relatively confident), I understood/understand that there was still only a 5(or6)/19 or around 1/4 chance of me hitting scum. The fact that it was almost guaranteed that he took the most anti-town role was what lead me to not second guessing my shot. It's kinda like my first posts in the game where I talk about everyone being assigned a pick. I thought that was logical at the time, but in retrospect realized it was bad for town and plain stupid. The CPR Doc was talked about in the sign up phase of the game and people were excited about it. It drew a ton of attention to anyone reading the thread at anytime and I had never heard of it. At somepoint when I glanced over the roles I probably read the copycat role, but in no way did it factor into my decision to shoot decon which is irresponsible i guess. In all honesty though, I know I am town. So even now, knowing about the copycat role, I think it was the right choice to shoot Secondly, if your logic is good, why don't your chances increase? You can't be relatively confident in your shot if you think it only has a 1/4 chance of hitting scum. That doesn't make sense. I realize that it is good for the town to kill the most anti-town role, but you can't say your odds are both good and bad. Thirdly, you make a good point about the CPR Doctor being discussed in the signup phase. I had forgotten that people did that. However, let me be specific, are you claiming that: 1. You didn't read between page 15 when you posted last and Palmar's appearance on page 18, when you started posting again. 2. You didn't read the roles very carefully at all beyond Day Vigilante and CPR Doctor. until after your shot? I disagree that it was the right choice to shoot. We had already planned to roleblock deconduo night 1. A day 2 shot probably removes the role from the game for good, rather than just passing it to an unknown mafia player. On May 18 2012 02:48 Mattchew wrote: I kind of want to lynch Risk.Nuke because he's the janitor and because of some numbers thing I worked out in my head Why is he the janitor over marvellosity or [UoN]Sentinel? [UoN]Sentinel, please confirm that you tried to take Janitor but did not get it. That is how I am reading your post. | ||
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Also, because I don't think lynching Mattchew is a good idea right now, I'm going to stop taking about him and focus on PaqMan. | ||
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On May 18 2012 03:59 Snarfs wrote: Not much to analyze in my vote. Sentinel said he would do one thing (which would benefit town), then did another (thus, benefiting mafia) while not making it clear that he didn't do the thing he intended to do (making it seem like he tried to benefit town, when in fact benefitting mafia). Why would town do this? What exactly did he say he would do which he didn't do? He said he would take Janitor. He tried to take Janitor. He claims he got vanilla instead. What about that is anti-town? Calm down a little and think this through, please. I'm not necessarily saying he isn't the best lynch target of the 3 (him, risk.nuke, and marvellosity), but I am saying that your logic for voting him isn't sound. This is why you need to do an analysis. And I still think PaqMan is a stronger target (sorry my post is taking so long - I'm at 6 pages in word and counting). All I'm doing is trying to get everyone to calm down and have an open mind about lynch targets. | ||
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+ Show Spoiler + On May 17 2012 12:44 PaqMan wrote: As I said, I'm not going to contribute if I have nothing to contribute. You yourself were just complaining of spam earlier. When the number selection started, by the time I had logged on and checked the thread, discussion was in full throttle. Plans were already pushed and people's minds already set. Am I honestly getting scolded for asking questions about plans that were discussed and settled on while I was absent? 1) "why would he post something like this?" I think the answer's quite obvious here. I was curious about what would be the best thing to do should that scenario occur. Should all three people choose to completely disregard the plans that everyone decided on and someone lower on the list, such as #8 or 9 or 10 or etc, ends up with CPR/Janitor, should they claim it? Am I really getting scolded for thinking ahead? My complete misunderstanding of how PyP works during the start of the game is better explained by the fact that I've never done a pyp. 2) That comment was a question on the plans that were laid out while I was away. + Show Spoiler [my opinions] + On May 15 2012 14:11 PaqMan wrote: If scum obtain the CPR role then it's definitely worth taking out of play, I don't understand how you could argue about that. They already start off with the upper hand and denying them one of the strongest roles in the game is a plus for town. On May 17 2012 09:20 PaqMan wrote: It's possible he's just trying to bait scum into picking janitor so that they end up being vanilla. You have a good point but I really can't imagine scum waiting until after the draft order is posted then purposely act against a plan that was agreed upon by everyone. Throw in the fact that he's making a huge deal about it as well. He could have just as easily not told us his intentions. On May 16 2012 13:21 PaqMan wrote: Yepp, I don't understand that. Some discussion is always better than complete silence. Makes it too easy for scum. That said, my numbers were [2,2]. I didn't give much thought when I was choosing my numbers. I was originally going to do [4,2] but risk declared that as his number and I didn't want to end up at the bottom. Also, lol at deconduo. Assuming that he went through with [1,1] I'm surprised no one else picked it. Idk why, I just thought that someone would troll him and pick the same number. Would have been pretty funny. Please tell me that those aren't opinions. I've contributed nothing at all? Well D1 literally just started only a few hours ago. Of course I'm not going to be slapping down cases and FoS's. If you mean contributing to plans, of course I had nothing to contribute. You had quarter-page long posts covering the role plans, so what the hell is left to say besides "I approve!". Believe it or not, but my questions did contribute. Perhaps they were a little idiotic but they kept the discussion from going stagnate and they raised a good point. I'm not sure what to say regarding this part of your case because I see no difference between my posting at all. It's already stated above but I'll say it again. My questions did contribute to discussion. I was looking for potential flaws in the plans and I was questioning possible scenarios and what would be the best course of action if said scenarios occurred. -not scared, didn't have anything useful to contribute to plans that everyone already agreed on. -I dont care? I lost the first mafia game I've played in over 6 months. My 2nd game is ongoing. And I'm definitely not down to start my 3rd with getting mislynched D1 because a vet pushed me for asking questions. TL;DR I'm town and you're wrong. If those are your only points for thinking I'm scum you need to do better than that. First of all, notice what PaqMan is really saying. He's just saying that I'm wrong, but he still isn't going to change what he has been doing so far this game. And like Sloosh pointed out, his way of saying that I'm wrong is by misrepresenting my words. I'm not criticizing him for asking questions. I'm criticizing him for not bringing anything material to the table despite acting like he's part of the discussion, which is a significant change from how he acted in a previous game, even though, by all indications, he was just as fired up about this game as he was the other one. As he says, he isn't going to post if he has nothing to contribute. Then why does he have 16 posts up to this point without a material contribution to the game? He has given us more updates about his schedule than he has given us opinions about what has happened so far! He says he is just asking questions about things which were discussed while he was absent. While this is true, I'm pointing out that this is a very big change in demeanor compared to how he was acting in a previous game (and other games he has played in as well for that matter - ignoring the ongoing game of course, but I figured the posts in Area XLIII showed my point well enough without forcing me to bring up his Cthsazsa posts which show the same behavior). However, that was not my only point, there was a HUGE change in demeanor compared to how he was acting before the game started as well! Before the game started, he was eager to be a part of it. After the game started, he's acting almost like a disinterested observer. Snarfs, I see you mentioned that the situation in which people didn't follow the picking plan actually happened. However, you can't read that post with this sort of backwards-looking logic. You have to look at it in the context of when it was made if you want to use this form of analysis. At the time, there was no indication of anyone dissenting to the plan at all. On May 15 2012 12:44 PaqMan wrote: So notice how he immediately dropped his objection in a relatively timid fashion and essentially dropped out of the conversation for the rest of the phase. Why didn't he push his question to trigger more discussion if he was genuinely concerned that it was a possibility? Because he didn't want to make waves and he didn't want to draw attention to himself. Who acts like that? Anti-town players trying to blend in and timid/disinterested townies. But we have already ruled out that he is disinterested because of the way he was posting before the game started. And we have ruled out that he is timid because of how he has posted in previous games. That only leaves Anti-town.+ Show Spoiler + On May 15 2012 11:37 Qatol wrote: Who are you thinking wouldn't follow the plans? Nobody is even arguing against them right now. Are you suggesting that there are 3-5 people who think it is better to disagree and silently act on their own rather than talking about their concerns openly right now? That's pretty anti-town behavior on their part. If anyone has reservations about assigning the roles as we are discussing, please bring them forward now. However, if the plan isn't followed and someone lower in the queue happens to get the Janitor or CPR Doctor (as I mentioned earlier, you should consider all roles fair game just in case, no matter where you are in the queue - use your judgment based on your reads on the people above you and your location), then yeah, they should claim after the Copy Cat has been assigned. It creates accountability, which is never a bad thing. Note: this is only with regards to the CPR Doctor and the Janitor roles. This is not an invitation to claim your role (or lack thereof) for no reason later. It's possible that these plans won't work if the top 3 picks are all mafia/SK, but then we can figure them out via the KP numbers. And it isn't like they won't drop like flies once we figure out what happened. This is the whole point of slowing down the game - to give the town time to organize. That's why I said what if. I slightly misstated my point when I said that he doesn't give his opinion on things. He does. However, they're always extremely "safe" opinions, all of which have either been stated in this game, a previous one, or they doesn't help the town any more than the mafia. Note the 3 posts he points out: + Show Spoiler + On May 15 2012 14:11 PaqMan wrote: If scum obtain the CPR role then it's definitely worth taking out of play, I don't understand how you could argue about that. They already start off with the upper hand and denying them one of the strongest roles in the game is a plus for town. This was stated by pretty much every player in the game. This isn't an opinion, this is him parroting the logical course of action as agreed upon by everyone (at the time). On May 17 2012 09:20 PaqMan wrote: It's possible he's just trying to bait scum into picking janitor so that they end up being vanilla. You have a good point but I really can't imagine scum waiting until after the draft order is posted then purposely act against a plan that was agreed upon by everyone. Throw in the fact that he's making a huge deal about it as well. He could have just as easily not told us his intentions. Note that this post doesn't actually help the town or the mafia. This is because the post doesn't give any additional positive direction to the town or reduce any options for the mafia. All it does is tell us that PaqMan is thinking about players baiting the mafia into taking picks. It's pure speculation and may actually help the mafia more than the town by pointing out the potential mind game! Finally, he makes a post talking about posting our numbers. This has been done in every single PYP to my knowledge because "it can't hurt the town." I don't see how this is contribution at all. However, the one time he has a chance to voice a real opinion on something or at least make sure the town thinks about a potentially material issue, he backs off right away. In the next part, he discusses his posting from another game and mentions that he doesn't see a difference at all. I see a big one. Read the post again: On April 21 2012 12:01 PaqMan wrote: Notice the tone he takes in this post: it's assertive. It's helpful. He's standing by an unconventional idea. Once again, compare that to his attempt to join the discussion when we were talking about the CPR/Jailkeeper plan - he is the exact opposite! The major difference is he didn't give us his opinion on the best course of action if the scenario he mentioned (people not following the plan) happened. But I do agree with you VE. Giving scum any more info puts them in an even greater advantage over us. A mass vig claim would be the same as handing them a hit list. some of gonzaw's points however are pretty valid (no late-game chaos with vig claiming before lynch, etc etc). Either way, I can't see a vig following either one of y'alls policies. He claims, town lynches him and nothing is gained. He claims, chance of mafia taking him out or keeps him alive, either way there's chaos. I suggest that our vigilante (if we have one) doesn't claim at all. If he's about to be lynched then he needs to defend himself as a normal townie because claiming vig is going to create a shitstorm for us, which gives scum the upper hand. If he's going to use his kp one someone, he doesn't need to claim before or after the kill. It's going to create too much confusion and WIFOM and finger-pointing and shit. So I think that vigilantes should not make any claims this game. Finally, Sloosh makes an excellent point about his defiant tone while trying to turn his defense into an accusation of me. Where did that come from? Why wasn't he posting like that earlier? Because he's grumpy that he got shoved into the spotlight while trying to blend in. And because he got caught on day 1 in his first game with an Anti-Town role (unless I'm mistaken, and not commenting about the game going on, of course). He's Anti-Town. | ||
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On May 18 2012 06:15 Zephirdd wrote: I don't get it Qatol. Most of what I interpreted from your case is that PaqMan is going with common opinions rather than uncommon ones. Of course he'd be abrasive and assertive when he has an opinion different from town; he needs to convince town. On a game where his opinion is shared with most people, what use is there for him to be abrasive about it? That was why I mentioned his discussion of the situation in which people don't follow the plan. He was concerned about it but was anything but assertive. On May 18 2012 06:40 Toadesstern wrote: Qatol what's your opinion on Sandro? Anyone else willing to answer that one is welcome to answer that one as well. I still think he is by far the most scummy player we have right now but the decunduo flip really doesn't fit that read. Not that I think a Sandro + decunduo mafia team should be considered imba (at all) but it doesn't really fit. Qatol was very open when disagreeing with Sandroba before and while drafting and told us exactly where Sandroba was wrong in his (and my) opinion, yet he never said Sandroba is scummy. Now look at what Decunduo did: He posted no walls of text like Sandro did. He basicly agreed with it in a very useless fashion but he disagreed with Sandroba. He as well never said Sandroba is looking weird for it, too. However, given the flip don't you think he usually would have done it? Decunduo was mafia. He had all the reasons to say Sandroba looks weird after how I and ESPECIALLY after how Qatol dismanteled Sandroba in a way everyone agreed. What Qatol did was very clear, he explained his thoughts and why what Sandroba said is wrong and both know that Sandroba is a monster as town. So why didn't Decundo drop the m-word? Again, he had all the reasons to just say he thinks Sandroba looks weird but didn't, I think Sandroba is the best lynch for today and we need to get people like blue in here, which is the reason I voted him but I should have done so earlier and clearly a pressure vote at this point of time is not going to help anymore so I'm taking it off blue. If blue isn't going to contribute soon I'd say he's still a decent Plan-B but Sandro is the by far best shot we have today imo if it weren't for the dayvig that's confusing me SO HARD.... Sandroba is on my "look at later if he's still alive" list. Basically, he hasn't said anything that stood out to me as being blatantly scummy, but he also hasn't done enough to establish himself as innocent to me. I think he's his experience will make him a decently high priority target for either the scum or the SK (or both). I didn't like that he was emphasizing an early godfather pick, just like deconduo. That being said, his claim that he was taking the mason role made him a lower priority to me because it seems like a pretty pro-town selection which can be verified easily enough if we start a serious discussion of lynching sandroba. On May 18 2012 07:29 Palmar wrote: I'm thinking we should murder Qatol. Need to read a bit more before I make up my mind. I will post a few more things tomorrow. Sandroba, how do you feel about that? I'd like to hear your reasoning on that one. It would be the most useful/constructive post you've made all game by far. | ||
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On May 18 2012 09:38 Misder wrote: I think there is definitely mafia in between risk.nuke, marvellosity, and sentinel. I don't see how there is any benefit to town lying about having the Janitor role at all. I also think we should deal with the Janitor role first. Qatol: If you thought that Janitor is a really strong role for mafia that it warranted a denial, why is lynching Paqman more ideal? Because we don't know who between risk.nuke, marvellosity, and sentinel has the Janitor. I am more confident about my read on PaqMan than I am of the chances we find the scum member between risk.nuke, marvellosity, and sentinel, especially on day 1. I don't believe the mafia will allow the correct player to get enough momentum in a lynch situation for us to be successful. On the other hand, I don't believe the mafia can divert the town's attention if we focus on PaqMan because the only alternatives being seriously discussed right now are this mess of potential Janitor players and Sandroba, whom I've already discussed. | ||
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On May 18 2012 10:51 Snarfs wrote: One of risk.nuke, marv, and Sentinel is lying in a manner that is hurting town. This means that one of them is scum. That is a 1/3 chance, much better than any hunches you might have on PaqMan or sandroba or whoever else. To address some points: risk.nuke has voted Sentinel and Sentinel has voted risk.nuke; therefore, it is very unlikely that one of them is lying to draw fire from scum if they have actually chosen Janitor. Sentinel has claimed vanilla town; therefore, is probably the safest lynch of the three if we want to avoid accidentally lynching a blue. @Toad: We are not lynching blind into 3 targets. Read the thread. Read their filters. Make an educated decision. Don't lynch blind. My scum rank for the three are: 1. Sentinel 2. risk.nuke 3. marvellosity Any discussion of targets other than these 3 will only help cause confusion amongst the town and WILL ONLY BENEFIT SCUM. Qatol, I do understand the conviction to lynch a scum you think you've got pegged, but other people (myself included) just don't see the case as that strong. Here we have a 1/3 chance of hitting scum. Those are great odds. Help us out with some analysis of these 3 people rather than tunneling on PaqMan. To conclude: People should talk about Sentinel, risk.nuke and marvellosity because there is a 1/3 random chance that one of them is scum. Talking about other targets will only help mafia because it spreads confusion among a town which must be focused to win the game. Yes I agree. While I still think that PaqMan is our best lynch target, it's clear that he won't be getting lynched this cycle. Any further pushing I do on the subject will just further splinter the town and make a no lynch/mislynch more likely. I'll have to look at filters and histories more carefully for risk.nuke, marvellosity, and Sentinel before I make a final decision, but I'll make a few observations: 1. Unless we lynch Sentinel, we don't even know for sure that the Janitor role is among the first 3 players at all. For all we know, the first 2 players took something else and Sentinel is mafia and just lying. Sentinel is also, like Snarfs mentioned, the one of the three who is claiming not to have a role. If we assume 2 townies and 1 scum (if there were 2 scum, I can't imagine that they wouldn't just have one member claim the role to avoid giving the town incredible odds of destroying their team), that means that at least 1 of the townies has a role which is probably pretty good considering where they're picking. 2. I could definitely see risk.nuke acting like this as a townie. Notice that he wanted to post his numbers so nobody else would pick them before the game even started and posted them immediately when the game did start. This shows that he's impulsive and rather selfish in his actions. He's also the only one of the three who said he wouldn't be picking Janitor or CPR before the drafting phase ended. I'll do a more in depth analysis tomorrow, but for now, logic say vote Sentinel, so I'll preliminarily vote for him. ##Unvote: PaqMan ##Vote: [UoN]Sentinel | ||
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On May 06 2012 03:06 GMarshal wrote: Janitor - Busy always cleaning up after other people's mess. You love your job so much though that you'll even clean up dead bodies. During the Night you may PM me that you want to clean up all the dead bodies in Town. No player's role or alignment will be revealed upon death for that upcoming Day. You can only use this ability once. 1. The Janitor cannot be used on the day 1 lynch. He triggers his abilities at night. There hasn't been a night yet, so there has been no opportunity for him to trigger his ability. 2. I'm relatively certain that the Janitor's abilities don't even apply to lynch results. He cleans up bodies "for the day." That seems to imply that his powers work on day posts (which post the results of night actions), rather than night posts (which post results of the lynch). Does the Janitor's ability affect any posts other than the day post immediately following the Janitor's PM? | ||
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On May 19 2012 03:26 sandroba wrote: That was uber retardness picking mason at that spot, but oh well. There is another explanation I had not considered, which is sentinel is traitor. Kinda makes sense ensuring we would go in a wild chase after the other 2 players. I'd like risk to claim before I decide whom to vote. Risk doesn't need to claim, at least not yet. Zelblade needs to claim whether mason was the role he tried to select. If it wasn't, then we know risk selected the role zelblade tried to grab or sentinel is lying about whiffing on traitor, or both. | ||
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On May 19 2012 03:50 Misder wrote: Sigh, we did not need more people to claim green. Not really, because that would be way too risky for scum. When did Sentinel say he tried to get traitor? I do agree that zelblade should confirm first before risk roleclaims. Sorry, I meant Janitor. | ||
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On May 19 2012 05:01 Snarfs wrote: You claimed before risk.nuke did. And you did it in such a way that it left you open to either claiming not to have tried to get Janitor or to have tried and failed to get Janitor. Why would risk.nuke come in and see that both you and marv have claimed not to have gotten Janitor, then claim not to be the Janitor if he was scum? The only way that makes sense is if he is really scum and did not choose Janitor - a scenario which doesn't work based on yours and marv's claims. Your defense defends him more than yourself because of the order of claims. If he chose Janitor, he could "just sweep it under the rug and still play a VT game without consequence." Time stamps: Actually, risk claimed the first of the 3. On May 17 2012 01:18 risk.nuke wrote: If he takes Janitor after a post like this and claims it, the town probably policy lynches him.I'm Town. I still don't understand your reasoning to why you think I would pick traitor. You're just wifoming your own head dizzy. I'm not going to pick janitor. I'm not just saying I'm not going to pick janitor, I'm really not goin to pick janitor what are you going to do about that toad? It makes more sense for Sentinel to be mafia or traitor. Look what his claim has forced us to do. We're stuck in a situation in which we are lynching one of the top 3 living picks. If we mislynch, we probably wind up spending the next lynch arguing over the same people. And we still don't even know for sure that the Janitor role is even among these 3 players! | ||
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On May 19 2012 05:52 marvellosity wrote: I thought it might be Sentinel but my gut is saying risk atm. Look what his claim has forced us to do? Look what risk did by just not choosing janitor in #2 spot. That's worse. Hypocritical of me I know. I realize that what risk did was very arrogant and selfish, and obviously quite damaging to the town. That being said, I don't think he is the right lynch and I hope you can take a step back and come to the same conclusion. | ||
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On May 19 2012 10:56 zelblade wrote: Why did people assume I would pick janitor when there was a plan for pretty much 2-4 take janitor -_- Anyway I still think sentinel is town since I just cant wrap my head around a mafia being so dumb. Traitor seems like a plausible explanation, except that the fact that there is a JOAT in 2-4 makes it make no sense. Bleh lynch is locked anyway. So you believe that marvellosity AND risk.nuke are lying about their role selections? If Sentinel is town and you are town, then the other 2 roles taken were JOAT and Janitor. Sentinel as anti-town and risk.nuke taking JOAT makes a lot more sense. | ||
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On May 19 2012 12:02 Misder wrote: This also means that Janitor is not in those three hands, and that if there is a Janitor, then it's in scum's hand in a lower draft position. There is one way I can think of having one of those 3 having Janitor: it is possible that marvellosity is lying mafia and a scumbuddy (could only be mafia because a townie would have counterclaimed) after him but before toadesstern took mason. | ||
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On May 19 2012 12:07 Misder wrote: But that means risk.nuke is lying about having vigilante and has JOAT. Good point. You're right. If there's a janitor, it has to be outside of those picks unless we have multiple liars. | ||
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On May 19 2012 12:10 Misder wrote: Oh, my logic is assuming that only one of them is lying. If two of them are lying, then anyone could be anything (well, I haven't done the deductive reasoning, but I would assume so). Multiple liars also has to consider the chances that toadesstern and/or zelblade could be lying as well, so not all roles mentioned are necessarily part of the equation. | ||
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On May 19 2012 12:16 PaqMan wrote: I think it's much more possible that nobody grabbed Janitor and that role is out of play. If that's true, then Sentinel is the correct lynch (remember, he is claiming to have gone for Janitor). | ||
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If risk is JOAT (and is thus lying about taking Vigilante), we have multiple liars because either marvellosity took Janitor (and is lying about being mason) or Sentinel is lying about taking Janitor. | ||
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On May 19 2012 12:28 risk.nuke wrote: Insomnia and can't sleep. Qatol and Misder. Reading your conversation is... well the level of is it like watching two kids counting cones in the woods and one of the kids says wait this cone is actually two cones stuck together and the other bursts out in amazement. Oh, nice catch! You're discussing completely obvious things for even people who just glance at the thread. Drop the condescending attitude, please. Remember that not all of us have the same information you have. And besides, it is clearly necessary because a bunch of players aren't getting it. If it's all so obvious to you, why don't you walk us through it constructively rather than just sit on the sidelines and heckle us? | ||
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On May 19 2012 12:16 PaqMan wrote: I think it's much more possible that nobody grabbed Janitor and that role is out of play. On May 19 2012 12:37 PaqMan wrote: And what is that? That you two think sent is scum? I'm not going to sheep my vote, I trust my read over two people who I'm not even sure are town. Which part of your logic do you think you are wrong in? Is Janitor not part of those three picks or is Sentinel town? Who is lying among these players? If Sentinel is town, then two of marvellosity, risk.nuke, and zelblade are lying. Let me draw up the conversation Misder and I are having a little more comprehensively: 1. risk.nuke claims to have taken vigilante 2nd 2. marvellosity claims to have taken mason 3rd 3. [UoN]Sentinel claims to have taken janitor 4th but got vanilla 4. zelblade claims to have taken Jack of All Trades 6th but got vanilla 5. Toadesstern claims to have taken mason 12th but got vanilla Let's assume (like you just mentioned) that Sentinel is town. Let's also assume (as you mentioned earlier) that nobody picked Janitor. 1. [UoN]Sentinel CANNOT have tried to take the role and failed to get it (he claimed to have tried to grab Janitor). This means he is lying FOR SURE! Why don't you want to lynch him? I'm going to assume you want to reconsider the idea that Janitor isn't among those 3 picks (that way Sentinel is not a liar). Let's break that situation down a bit further: 1. Let's assume risk.nuke took Janitor and marvellosity took mason. Zelblade must be lying about not getting JOAT. (So risk.nuke and zelblade are liars.) 2. Let's assume risk.nuke took Vigilante and marvellosity took Janitor. This means that Zelblade must be lying about not getting JOAT and one of two situations happened: 2a. Toadesstern is not lying about mason being gone by the time he picked. This means that the mafia must have picked mason between picks 6 and 11 (remember, we have already established that in this scenario, zelblade must be lying). We also know that marvellosity and zelblade are liars. 2b. Toadesstern is lying about picking mason (marvellosity, zelblade, and toadesstern are liars). 3. Let's assume that risk.nuke took Vigilante and marvellosity took mason. Then Sentinel got Janitor when he selected it. He is still lying and we still want to lynch him. So which situation is the one you think is the most likely? By saying Sentinel is telling the truth, you are saying for sure that two or more of zelblade, risk.nuke, and marvellosity are lying, plus either toadesstern is lying or the mafia spent a mid-level pick on mason. Doesn't that seem like a lot of resources for the mafia to be committing this early? Meanwhile, if Sentinel is lying (mafia picking JOAT), nobody else needs to be lying. If Sentinel is lying, having picked traitor, then things get more complicated: We still have at least one liar out of risk.nuke, marvellosity, and zelblade. Once again, if marvellosity is a liar, Toadesstern is also lying or the mafia spent a mid-level pick on mason. Having said all of that, what is the most likely situation to you? Are you saying you think the mafia committed multiple members to this situation after already losing deconduo? Or is Sentinel a good lynch target? I argue that a lynch on Sentinel makes the most sense, if only to tell us whether we are looking at multiple liars or if we can move the discussion along and discuss other candidates. | ||
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On May 19 2012 13:27 Snarfs wrote: Looks like we had enough to lynch Sentinel whenever GM gets around to posting the night post. If Palmar pardoned Sentinel (which I don't think he did because he's intelligent), someone should probably shoot him for prolonging the debate). If Sentinel flips town, we shoot/lynch risk.nuke tonight and tomorrow. If Sentinel flips mafia, obviously risk.nuke has to shoot tonight so we should still discuss mafia targets throughout the night. Just waiting on the flip now. I disagree. I think if Sentinel flips town, we have to force marvellosity's mason buddy to claim before we go after risk.nuke. That way, if risk.nuke flips innocent as well, we have forced another liar out of the woodwork (giving us the whole scum team if I'm not mistaken - marvellosity, zelblade, the "mason target", and deconduo). If Sentinel flips mafia, why is risk shooting? Better still, who is he shooting? We want to take actions on as much information as possible. We also don't want to speed the game up. If Sentinel flips mafia jack, I don't think risk should be shooting at all. If Sentinel flips as some other form of mafia, I agree risk should probably shoot into the list of other liars. | ||
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On May 19 2012 13:39 Snarfs wrote: Sorry, I just figured risk would be a very high priority target for mafia being both a vigilante and very likely town so in order to use his power role he would have to use it tonight. The other option is for him to not use it and risk dying, but risk.nuke doesn't seem like the kind of guy who would want to get killed by mafia without using his KP . Honestly, risk is probably going to shoot tonight. He's that kind of guy. We should do our best to give him the best target, while at the same time, if we can't find a reasonable one, encourage him not to shoot Doesn't that just mean we should ask the Jailkeeper (if there is one) to protect him? The only problem with that is it would expose whether or not there is a Jailkeeper in the game (if risk.nuke lives, he can tell us if he was roleblocked. If he dies, there probably isn't a Jailkeeper). However, I don't think that hurts the town as badly compared to the potential benefit of blocking a hit or two (a potential mafia hit on risk.nuke + a likely miss on his vigilante hit). On May 19 2012 13:40 Snarfs wrote: Although, in saying that, I realize zelblade is also a very high priority target for mafia >.>. Either way, the point is not to avoid discussing mafia targets during the night phase. That is all. I agree. That being said, unless something changes dramatically or the lynch doesn't go as expected, my point is that I'd rather not see anyone shooting. | ||
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On May 19 2012 18:54 risk.nuke wrote: Sentinel going awol was the smartest thing he did. It made you guys to ignore how obvious he was the scum and caused 2 unnecessary roleclaims and he even nearly got away with it. Palmar the only excuse I "might" had been able to buy from you would have been a "sorry I haven't cared about this game". Your neglect to have any input on any plans, lack of scumhunting continuous support for bad plans and dumb actions just isn't possible from town a perspective. As much as I would love to kill palmar I think it's too complicated for me to do it when we don't know where the roles are. I think a better plan would be to say. Jailer, Roleblocker and Angry Vigilante should all go for him and see if they can manage to take him out. With 2 scum in the upper draft dead and the current situation I'm thinking about if maybe it would be good to do an organized mass roleclaim. I'm thinking we start at the bottom of the draft with Sandroba and after he's posted what role he sent in it's Qatols turn. When he have posted it's clear for snarfs to go etc. The manner of the roleclaim I think should be What role you sent in. OBS: Not if you got it or not. Thoughts? Angry Vigilante can't shoot tonight. In fact, tonight should be very illuminating about what happened with the Copy Cat. If I'm not mistaken, there are only 4 possible shots tonight because JOAT is dead: Vigilante, Copy Cat (CPR), Mafia, SK. Why on earth do you want to give the mafia/SK more information right now? A mass roleclaim MIGHT make sense if we need to hunt for the Copy Cat. But what value would it give us right now? All it would do is tell the Mafia and SK which players they should be gunning for. I'd like to keep the locations of roles like the Doctor, Role Cop, and Bullet Bill as hidden as possible, thank you. (Doctor is by far the highest priority target for SK right now, Role Cop is probably second, depending on what role the SK got. Mafia also don't want to see a town Doctor in the game, depending on their role selections, Role Cop could also be very bad, and Bullet Bill is definitely extremely bad for mafia.) On May 19 2012 22:40 Toadesstern wrote: hinthint: As you said, there have to be 2 liars OR risk is the liar because if Risk is the liar it all works with only one liar as well. Occhams razzor says we should lynch risk. No, if risk was lying, then zelblade or marvellosity must have been lying as well. Occam's Razor says lynch Sentinel, who only required 1 liar. On May 19 2012 23:37 Mattchew wrote: I think any townie with a gun should shoot barundar Why, exactly, is Barundar the best target? On May 20 2012 00:11 marvellosity wrote: Please protect me Is risk definitely telling the truth now? I think Doctor should use their best judgment on who to protect, considering the roles at stake as well as probable alignments of players. Jailer should jail Risk. Witch should consider using their ability tonight (it really should be used either tonight or Night 2), depending on the likelihood the witch thinks they will get shot/lynched before Night 2 vs. the potential chance to block the Angry Vigilante's shot. Risk probably isn't mafia, at least. It would be completely insane (as opposed to just incredibly gutsy) for them to pull a stunt like they did with Sentinel if 2 of the 3 players in that group were scum. That being said, he isn't confirmed either. | ||
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On May 20 2012 02:28 risk.nuke wrote: Yes thanks you three people have reminded us that the angry vigilante can not shoot tonight and I never even said he should. I ment if we're going to try to take out the serial killer with a vig then I am ill-suited for it. I'd prefer to lynch Palmar tomorrow so there can be no janitor shenanigans. And you avoided answering what you thought about roleclaiming. Ofcourse we're not doing it tonight. What part of what I said made you believe I wanted to do it tonight? I'm not asking you to roleclaim now. I'm asking if you think it's a good move or a bad move. I think it doesn't make sense to roleclaim right now. It might make sense in the future, and I'll address it again at that time. But for right now, I'm very much against it. I assumed you were asking for a roleclaim tonight because you proposed it right now. My apologies if that wasn't your intent. On May 20 2012 03:17 slOosh wrote: Is there a particular reason why we go bottom up rather than top down? Is it because the mafia are likely in the lower drafts so they have a harder time lying? I think the idea is that people don't know for sure if the role was taken by someone higher up if you go bottom up. But that only matters if you only do a partial mass roleclaim. Otherwise, the only rationale I can think of is that it's harder to claim you picked a role already picked but got vanilla. The second phase of the role claim would have to be a claim of whether or not you got the role you aimed for. On May 20 2012 02:32 marvellosity wrote: What do people think of Toad? I've often found him pretty confusing this game and he has a bunch of long-winded posts. In Wheel of Fortune he said he was making a specific effort as town to appear more townie and cut out the shitting up the thread, but he seems to have gone back to that here to an extent. He isn't the best lynch right now, in my opinion. At least he somewhat helped resolve the Sentinel/risk.nuke/you situation by coming out and backing up your claim on a role I don't think it's very likely the mafia selected. | ||
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[UoN]Sentinel: 9 Snarfs risk.nuke Qatol (from PaqMan) Misder Barundar Bluelightz slOosh (from PaqMan) sandroba marvellosity risk.nuke: 8 Zephirdd Mattchew [UoN]Sentinel zelblade Toadesstern (from [UoN]Sentinel) hiro protagonist Palmar PaqMan marvellosity: 1 talismania PaqMan: 0 sandroba: 0 Bluelightz: 0 | ||
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On May 20 2012 07:13 hiro protagonist wrote: One small corection to that vote list: talismania switched from marvellosity to sent. In fact, he was the hammer, as without him, there would not have been a majority. Im gonna have to reiterate what palmar said; I did not think scum do something like what sent did. He shot himself in the foot for no reason... well, whatever. I think we should lynch PacMan next, Thank you. I did miss talismania's vote switch. Vote counts are so hard to do correctly. On May 20 2012 07:26 risk.nuke wrote: I think marv should just claim. They are just going to help draw fire from blues. What is with you and claiming? Why can't the masoned player BE a blue? There is no requirement in the mason role that the player selected be a green and not a blue. It just says "Pro-town person." I agree with hiro protagonist that they should breadcrumb the masoned player though (there are lots of ways to do it, encryption is a good one). That way if marvellosity gets killed and flips town, we can determine the mod-confirmed innocent mason target. | ||
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First of all, anyone who took a hit and survived should claim it. It is very important that we get an accurate idea of how many shots were taken tonight. We NEED to know if there is an anti-town (probably mafia) CPR doctor in the game. Second of all, we need to know if risk.nuke took a shot at anyone and wasn't roleblocked. This will also impact our death count. Based on this, we should know how many people tried to take a shot night 1. Remember, the only roles left who can shoot night 1 are CPR and Vigilante (JOAT is dead). We should see between 2 and 4 shots, but the interesting numbers are 3 shots and 4 shots. If there is a CPR out there, the town's first priority has to be finding it. Copy Cat was discussed a lot during the number selection phase, and I would be surprised if the mafia allowed the role to fall very far. Talismania gave us a very convenient list of the voting order cross referenced with the players voting for Sentinel: On May 19 2012 14:51 talismania wrote: deconduo [1,1] - Mafia CPR doc (DayVigged by Mattchew) risk.nuke [4,2] - Vigilante marvellosity [7,2] - Mason [UoN]Sentinel [9,1] - Mafia Jack of All Trades (Lynched Day One) Mattchew [11,x] - Day Vigilante zelblade [12,x] - Vanilla Townie (Picked JoAT) Bluelightz [13,x] talismania [15,1] Misder [2,2] PaqMan [2,2] slOosh [10,x] Toadesstern [10,10] - Vanilla Townie (Picked Mason) Barundar [3,1] Zephirdd [3,2] hiro protagonist [3,x] Palmar [5,1] - Pardoner Snarfs [5,1] Qatol [5,1] sandroba [5,1] - Vanilla Townie (Picked Mason) Probulous - Vanilla Townie (Modkilled) Bolded players voted for risk.nuke, all others voted for sentinel or were already dead before the votes were tallied. I don't think the mafia were too keen on losing a member this early in the game, regardless of their gambit. I would be shocked if they didn't have at least 1 member and maybe both among the bolded players. Based on this list, look for potential CPR doctor candidates. I believe zelblade's claim because it was absolutely instrumental in catching Sentinel for sure. I also think that Toadesstern's claim is likely true because it lent credibility to marvellosity when he definitely needed it. The name that should jump out at you is PaqMan. He is definitely the best lynch target for today, even if you don't belive my earlier analysis on him. If anything, just consider how likely it was that he took the Copy Cat role at his position. However, there is one more thing you need to reconsider if you determine a Copy Cat is in the game and in mafia hands - Mattchew's innocence. I'm not saying that he's the best lynch target - he certainly isn't because he's already used his role's ability. I'm just saying you need to stop giving him "townie" credit for shooting deconduo and start looking at his posts and actions like you would any other player's. I still think it's entirely reasonable for the mafia to shoot their own member so they can get the CPR doctor at an undisclosed location in the queue without worrying about getting roleblocked. And beyond his shot on deconduo, he hasn't been a very pro-town influence in this game. On the other hand, if there is no CPR in the game, Mattchew should drop much lower on the priority list. However, I still believe that PaqMan is the best lynch target, mostly based upon my analysis earlier and how hard he pushed to lynch risk.nuke as opposed to [UoN]Sentinel. He also has the highest potential for a dangerous role for the mafia. As an aside, I found at least 2 mistakes in the numbers in your list, talismania - Snarfs claimed he picked [5][5], and Palmar didn't pick [5][1] as a result. Palmar's second number would have to be 2, 3, or 4. | ||
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On May 20 2012 11:38 Snarfs wrote: So there were only 10 votes on Sentinel with 10 to lynch? This means that mafia probably doesn't have a politician, correct? Yeah this is a pretty safe assumption. It's likely in SK hands or wasn't taken. I don't think the role is strong enough to warrant a denial pick from the town and I can't imagine the mafia not using it to save Sentinel. | ||
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Actually, 4 hours ago (well, more like 4 hours 45 minutes by this point). Deadlines for nights are 1 hour earlier than deadlines for days. | ||
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On May 20 2012 23:03 risk.nuke wrote: There is potentially missing kp but we should turn to that AFTER roleclaims. Don't rush. So PaqMan's death was your shot? And no, missing KP is definitely more important than roleclaims. I still don't think anyone should be roleclaiming unless it is adds something to the town. What do we get out of it? I think you need to give a case for why we should be roleclaiming before I'm even going to consider supporting such a plan. | ||
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On May 20 2012 23:27 risk.nuke wrote: I've been holding it of trying to encourage others to give some thoughts on it before I explained my reasons because only half of us are rowing or even trying and I got nullreads on far to many players. Which is very weird with three red flips. What I mainly hope to learn from it is what did Player try to go for and does that make sense from his point of view. Mafia and town might try to denie some roles from eachother but their agendas are not aligned so a roleclaim will for example let us see suspicous picks. No, please tell us now. It isn't like we're going to not discuss your idea if you give us this information. We need to know if there's a potential CPR doctor out there. Your shot affects that calculation. | ||
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On May 21 2012 00:49 risk.nuke wrote: Qatol what do you mean? Simple. I'm the Jailkeeper and I jailed you last night. Please explain why you haven't mentioned that the PaqMan shot wasn't your vigilante shot. You were roleblocked. | ||
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On May 21 2012 01:50 Zephirdd wrote: Question: did you send the action to chaoser? Its possible that he didnt get the action if GM was offline, and afaik you must send it to both hosts. this or risk is scum and thats fucking awesome because that means I wasnt entirely wrong. Yes, I sent the action to chaoser (as well as GMarshal, of course). I just went back checked the spelling to be sure. I've been thinking about this more and I'm not convinced risk is scum - why would he publicly announce a hit night 1 on his only remaining scum buddy? And why would he get caught in such a silly situation afterwards when all he has to do is claim it wasn't him who took the shot? It isn't like he was even under any pressure today. I want to hear from the hosts before we jump to conclusions. More coming in a bit. | ||
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Can you confirm you sent out any PMs to people who took a hit but survived (if there were any)? | ||
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I agree with marvellosity in that I think the Politician role is in Serial Killer hands, so risk.nuke claiming to have the Vigilante role (which I think is the 3rd most dangerous role and would have been my choice for denial purposes if I had been higher in the queue) would be extremely dangerous and likely counterclaimed. I think we still need to resolve exactly how the night kills worked themselves out, but I think we need to hear from the hosts before we can do to much on that front. If you tried to take Politician and are a townie, please claim it now (this does not apply to marvellosity's mason townie). I also believe that the Copy Cat isn't in the game (but this is subject to change, of course, if we see high number of kills during a later night). This means that Mattchew is off the hook for now. I'm sorry it took me so long to say that, but I tend to be a little more paranoid than most in these kinds of games (look at my ranting about things that might be used to kill in PYP1 if you don't believe me). Contrary to what Palmar said earlier, I don't believe anyone here is an idiot for treating him as probably innocent. (Sorry to sidetrack, but the comment has been bothering me ever since Palmar made it the other day.) I believe we are most likely looking for a Serial Killer with the Politician role and a Mafia member who could have one of many different roles, though Framer, Godfather, Angry Vigilante, and Vanilla seem like the most likely selections. There may also be a Traitor out there, but he is a lower priority because he does not control any kill power. It is also important to note that PaqMan was vanilla, so he went for a role and didn't get it. Day Vigilante and Vigilante seem like the most likely roles he could have tried for, at least out of the ones we know about so far. Just another reason to avoid worrying about Mattchew or risk.nuke right now. Because it is now night time, I do not believe that role claims are the best idea at the moment. However, we definitely need to reconsider this once the day starts. At the very least, marvellosity's townie probably needs to claim at that point so we can get a better idea of where we're looking for the Serial Killer. And if Bullet Bill finds someone with a gun, Parity Cop finds someone with the opposite parity from himself, or Role Cop finds someone with a suspicious role, they need to claim. As things stand now, my best guess for the remaining mafia member is Zephirdd. My best guess for the Serial Killer is Misder, SlOosh, or Barundar. I'm not anywhere near as confident about those reads as I was about PaqMan (none of these were deduced through behavior, only role choices and draft list ordering), but I should be able to narrow things down by tomorrow. Finally, because it looks like risk.nuke's shot on PaqMan went through, it looks like we have a hit missing. If you took a hit, claim it, please. Otherwise, we're going to have to assume the mafia shot the Serial Killer. Side note: I wrote most of this while it was still day, so if anything looks a little jumbled, that's probably why. | ||
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On May 21 2012 03:40 cherubael wrote: This is GMarshal's brother, posting because he asked me to: just letting you guys know, my brother had an eye problem on Friday and is still in the hospital. He should be ok, but he probably won't be out till Tuesday. He said that the other host should keep the game going as normal. Thank you so much for the update. I was really starting to worry about him. Tell him thanks for worrying about us and now he should just focus on getting better. | ||
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On May 21 2012 09:36 Bluelightz wrote: Here I propose something NON-CPR Doctors should protect Qatol I think they really should, Qatol right now has no reliable protection(by that meaning that he can be killed ezpz as he is not a vet but he is a jail keeper that can't protect himself I think) I disagree somewhat. I think they should be looking for the person they think is most likely to take a hit. If they think that person is me, then yes they should protect me. However, I don't think it is right to simply tell them to protect me no matter what, though I appreciate the thought. It isn't right to dictate their actions for them. There is a reason I emphasized that the person taking doctor should be comfortable with the idea of having that role. The role is a challenge to play, but is obviously incredibly strong if played well. Also, I'd like to point out that we still don't know what happened to the other hit last night. We really need someone to claim it. | ||
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On May 21 2012 11:04 Misder wrote: I'm fine with a roleclaim tomorrow, although I am wondering- are we hoping that scum trips up when we roleclaim or to organize town. Qatol, was the main reason you jailed risk to protect him or to roleblock him. Does risk get his bullet back if Qatol jails him again? I would say most likely, talismania saved someone last night, but there is also have the possibility that mafia tried to hit SK. Both, actually, which was why it was a rather easy decision to protect him last night. I had no idea whom he was going to shoot and his behavior regarding our earlier plans made me loath to simply trust him to shoot PaqMan. On the other hand, I also realized that he has an extremely powerful role which I would like to keep in the game, so I didn't want to see him shot. I'm obviously not going to say whether or not I plan to jail risk.nuke again. However, I'll say this: I don't think a shot right now is a good idea - we don't have any real leads at the moment, only a list of "maybes." I think it's better to let the mafia/SK shoot into the maybes for us or potentially allow a Bullet Bill/Parity Cop/Role Cop to hide within that group and put together pieces. If talismania saved a townie, why hasn't that townie claimed yet? The only other options are that talismania saved a mafia and that mafia is afraid to claim (seems unlikely), or talismania didn't save anyone and either the mafia and SK both shot talismania or the mafia shot the SK. | ||
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If the 4th member is a Janitor, how do they get around marvellosity's 50/50 chance of picking the role? I know he didn't actually do it, but scum wouldn't know that at the time unless marvellosity is scum (which I doubt). Do you think they just chanced it? I think the mafia could have gone a lot of different ways with that 4th pick and it's too hard to predict at this time what that would be. All we can do right now is rule out roles they were unlikely to pick which we know are in the game. I agree that it is very much possible (and probably quite likely) that the final scum member voted for risk.nuke as opposed to Sentinel. Losing the JOAT before he got his shot off was a huge blow to the mafia, and I think they did everything they could to keep that from happening. Where does marvellosity's townie's claim that the politician role was taken in front of him (and the fact that nobody stepped up and claimed getting it, which is why we think it's in SK hands - mafia would have saved Sentinel with it) fit in? If Sandroba is the SK, this is literally impossible because Sandroba had the last pick. And your analysis earlier points to the final mafia member likely being a risk.nuke voter, which Sandroba was not. I don't see any reason to put sandroba high on a suspicion list right now. Palmar is obviously a different story and more of a possibility, though I don't think he's particularly likely as a SK candidate either. He's too low on the list. However, we will know more after marvellosity's townie claims (which I hope he will once day 3 begins). | ||
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On May 22 2012 02:33 chaoser wrote: Are people informed if they are saved (by witch or doctor)? People are informed if they were shot and protected by witch or doctor. I wasn't sure if they were informed or not but I asked an outside player and they told me they were so I recently just informed the person they were shot. Please get all actions into me, Night ends in 7 hours and 15 minutes. What about if they are saved by being Jailed? Is the player doing the saving informed of the save? | ||
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On May 22 2012 03:52 risk.nuke wrote: Most of you got bloody butthurt because of that and nearly mislynched me despite I was the without a question the least likely to be the scum. If you had just been able to produce the slightest amount of common sense you had seen how Sentinel was clearly the most suspicious which I think snarf was the one to quickly point out. Please don't talk like this. It isn't an appropriate way to talk to people. Just because GMarshal isn't around doesn't mean this game doesn't have higher posting standards than most of the games on this site. On May 22 2012 03:57 Toadesstern wrote: We asked about 4 times in the first 48 hours that EVERYONE who does not agree with the plan to say it before alignment pm's are out. Noone disagreed but sandroba => everyone but sandroba agreed to it. You just completly bombarded it although we planned to go with it. If you would have just told us that you disagree with it there would have been no problem at all, but you didn't. That's the point. But you playing anti-town although you are town isn't even the point. The point is that a massclaim won't help us because we won't be able to figure out who picked what role with what reason. Mafia won't lie about their roles and simply say they tried to deny a town role. SK wil just claim something that's safe at this point (thanks to the marv / risk / sent thin it's already bloody easily to do that) and there's just no way to figure out that as well. Just lynch into scumreads instead of talking about massclaims when the chance to catch a scum like that is like 0,1%... Actually, I disagree that a massclaim has no merit. However, I don't want to say too much because I'm worried it will affect the night shots. So I'll just say that a massclaim tonight is not a good idea and look for my post in a few hours, which should explain more. Something coming on the "who to shoot at" topic sooner. | ||
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On May 22 2012 06:39 hiro protagonist wrote: Whoops, haha, did not see that Vig has two shots in this game. I guess risk can still shoot. I thought you were claiming bullet bill for a moment there, and it was completely blowing my mind and making no sense at all. By the way, I still think you are the best person to kill next at the moment. On May 22 2012 03:27 Mattchew wrote: you have another shot right? barundar seems like a good target Why? Explain your logic please. Barundar voted for Sentinel. Do you think the final mafia member was in the Sentinel voting list? I'm guessing if you're advocating a shot on Barundar, you think he isn't. I personally disagree. Barundar makes a lot more sense to me as a potential SK candidate, but Vigilante hits don't work on Serial Killers. Don't make these sort of accusations without backing them up with some substance. It doesn't help anything. I think the vigilante hit has to be chosen carefully. First of all, I still think the mafia did not vote against their scumbuddy. It's too dangerous in such a close lynch. So I think the best vigilante hit has to come from the risk.nuke voters. Here is the current list: Mattchew zelblade Toadesstern Zephirdd hiro protagonist Palmar However, we can narrow things down further. Mattchew can be eliminated because of his shot on deconduo. No way would a mafia do that without copycat as a backup. zelblade can similarly be eliminated because of his JOAT claim. The mafia have no reason to bring attention to their actual role selection in that situation. I think we can also eliminate Toadesstern. Looking back at his posts concerning his own role selection, I see him being extremely concerned about the mason role. In fact, he even asked Sandroba about whether or not Sandroba had gotten the mason role slightly before Sentinel claimed vanilla. I think this behavior reinforces my read that he actually did take mason. I was mistaken when I said that it changed anything in the day 1 lynch - I did not realize that sandroba had already claimed vanilla at the time. Regardless, I do not think he is the best target at the moment. As mentioned earlier, the most pro-town thing about Zephirdd is his reaction to the deconduo flip. It could have been staged, but I don't think it was. It seemed very genuine to me. Also, he has just claimed taking a hit night 1. This makes him more likely to be Serial Killer in my mind and less likely to be mafia. This leaves only hiro protagonist and Palmar. hiro protagonist was quite active during the number selection and role selection discussions. However, his activity levels have dropped off sharply since then. He supported a lynch on risk.nuke, but what is more interesting about that is that he didn't consider lynching Sentinel even for a second. On May 19 2012 02:52 hiro protagonist wrote: That is post is the closest he gets for explaining how he is thinking. He later votes to "force risk.nuke to roleclaim". risk.nuke does in fact roleclaim shortly thereafter, but hiro protagonist never comes back to revisit his vote or his logic for keeping his vote on risk.nuke. Instead, his next post is approving of Palmar's threat to pardon Sentinel. He later posted that he didn't think scum would do what Sentinel did and that was why he voted for risk.nuke. However, his posts scream that he's trying to hide on the sidelines but still quietly support Sentinel, just like I would expect from a mafioso.@talis: its not an uncommon strategy for scum to argue or scold each other in the thread, publicly distancing themselves form each other. Makes it harder for town to connect the dots when scum flip. So your points about risk/decondo are a null tell in my opinion. Doesn't help that risk has been very unhelpful all game up to this point, and adding those to things up, I give a reasonable chance that risk is scum. I dont want to lynch Sentinel today. @risk/marv : Its relatively certain that one of the two of you (along with Sentinel) is scum (Or 3 incredibly stupid townies, but I dont want to entertain that notion). Why you dont want to claim your roles at this point is stupid. Your role is not as important as you think. In fact, claiming your roles at this point would most likely net us a scum. so right now you essentially have a role that says "you can claim your role, and get a dt check that only checks for scum" not to mention that after lynching scum from your claims, you would be mostly confirmed town. add it all up, its dumb not to claim... Im gonna catch up on the thread, brb Palmar has not been anywhere near as useful as I had expected of him. He came into the game and spammed and cursed a bit before getting warned. He mocked zelblade's initial post in a way which makes me think Palmar was trying to point out that it was incredibly noncomittal and extremely wishy-washy. I actually agreed completely, but zelblade has since proven himself so we're not going to worry about that. The main reason why I don't think Palmar is the best shot tonight is because, as Palmar himself has mentioned, him taking the Pardoner role and then claiming it and not using it on Sentinel was very pro-town. I think if he were scum pardoner, he wouldn't have claimed the role. At the time he claimed, I had already accused PaqMan. The mafia clearly tried to use the Sentinel claim as a way to distract the town away from PaqMan and into lynching our top draft picks. Why not hold the pardon in your back pocket as insurance, especially when you stand a chance at losing a KP role before he has used it? It doesn't make sense. And if he hadn't actually taken the Pardoner role, claiming it is extremely risky - even assuming that sandroba would be taking mason (as he had announced), Palmar is still risking that Snarfs or myself had taken the role as well. No, I think it is more likely that Palmar actually has the Pardoner role, and I think that makes him a worse shot than hiro protagonist. TL;DR: I think we should be shooting hiro protagonist tonight. He makes the most sense as the final mafia member. Hiro, if you're town you should probably give us as much information as you have. | ||
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On May 22 2012 07:01 marvellosity wrote: I think it makes him less likely to be mafia. I'm going to assume that the protection came from talismania for right now, but I think we should confirm that talismania couldn't save himself. If this is actually the case, then talismania would only be allowed to save either Zephirdd or PaqMan, and that choice isn't too hard. If talismania could have saved himself, then Zephirdd is far more likely to be the Serial Killer. The other options are either that Zephirdd has a defensive role (a weird choice for a mafia), or Zephirdd was protected by a doctor (which someone else could claim to confirm). I think this situation is better left for day 3.Qatol - or anyone - what do you think of Zephirdd being shot at/protted? I don't understand why anyone would have been shooting at him, or why anyone would be saving him (especially the saving part). Can the witch save herself? On May 22 2012 07:03 hiro protagonist wrote: Hasn't anyone realized that zelblade claiming JOAT is very safe if he is scum because, surprise, his scum buddy has it and he knows that? He could have anything... I would love to say that BB should check zelblade, but he could be framer for all we know. so i think lynching/shooting him would be the best move atm. It's interesting that you mention this. I went back and checked the timing of everything and it turns out my memory is a little off on what exactly happened. zelblade made his actual claim after the hammer vote had been placed but before voting had closed. However, he was also the one to push for specific roleclaims because he had hinted very early on that he could confirm one of the roles taken, which led to us figuring out what happened before chaoser flipped Sentinel. I guess it's more possible than I thought for zelblade to be mafia. His other posts haven't been very constructive in general. That being said, he's definitely a weaker candidate for shooting tonight than you are right now. | ||
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First, you mentioned that your activity levels tend to fluctuate. Why did you come out of the woodwork so quickly after I called you out? Why hadn't you been contributing during the time period around when I called you out? You were clearly around. Second, the two quotes you posted were written almost three days apart, with one (zelblade's) being before the Sentinel lynch and one (yours) being written after. Why is it relevant to compare them? Third, I would still like you to tell us your role selection, and whether you got vanilla. If you grabbed an investigative role, please also include who you checked and the results. I recommend having all of this written out in a post which you can post in a little under 15 minutes, right after night actions can no longer be sent in, but before we get the next day post. Finally, I commend you for your reaction to my accusation. Not only did you try to address my points, but you also brought up someone you think should be given more attention and explained why you believe they are more suspicious than you are. I don't know if this weighs on whether you are town or mafia (I will have to think about it more), but I love to see such constructive play as a general matter. Excellent post. | ||
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That being said, any massclaim we do would have to be done a certain way, would have to be done once the day started, and I don't think risk.nuke's idea of claiming from the bottom up is the right way to do it. In my opinion, a better way would be to: 1. Have anyone who picked a role but got vanilla claim. 2. After that is done and everyone who hasn't claimed verifies that they got a role, then everyone who picks a role and got it claims. The reason the order is important is because it should minimize the number of false duplicate claims. Instead, players are forced to claim they took roles they hope are not in the game. Alternatively, they can try to claim early and claim a role we know for sure already exists. The point is that the heaviest scrutiny should be placed upon people who have claimed roles which someone else has already claimed. If only one player claims to have gotten vanilla for a certain pick and one other player claims to have gotten that pick, then they do not need to be scrutinized as heavily. The big perk claiming roles in this fashion has over claiming roles from the bottom up is that players don't have the flexibility to claim roles which people below them in the queue have already claimed. Also, we don't need to worry about everyone claiming in order this way, so it eases things from a logistics standpoint. To be clear, this information would not be used to look for these players in isolation. The rest of the information we have collected throughout this game remains relevant, as does behavioral analysis. However, this simply gives us one more piece of information to help further narrow down our search. | ||
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What this all means is that someone else needs to step up and direct the discussion. I know several of you could be contributing a lot more than you have been. Heck, just by looking at the other games, I know slOosh and Mattchew are around but simply aren't posting here. So everyone please try to give more meaningful, thoughtful contributions to the game. By the way, I protected marvellosity last night. He didn't take a hit. I'm thinking it's quite likely that either the mafia or the SK didn't send in a hit last night, which is why chaoser offered to extend the cycle and gave so many warnings that actions were due soon. However, if you took a hit, please claim it. | ||
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+ Show Spoiler [Snarfs] + On May 22 2012 14:20 Snarfs wrote: Qatol, with regards to your case on hiro, I actually came to many of the same conclusions separately from that post and it was good to see many of my own ideas in your head as well. Especially with regards to not providing a single reason for lynching Sentinel, while at the same time not really arguing against Sentinel's lynch. Not once, until after Sentinel had died, did he say that he thought no scum would do what he did. However, I think the problem I had with putting him at the top of my scum list though was this line here: We had just lynched Sentinel and the conversation had moved away from PaqMan; then, he throws his name out again without anyone else, and also puts the idea in vigs heads to shoot him. Seemed kinda risky mafia play to me. What are your thoughts on that? Now, to turn the page a little. I'm wondering if all you vets out there (Qatol, sandroba, Palmar, anyone else wanting to take a stab) wouldn't mind helping me out with a look at slOosh. I'll admit, he isn't really a mafia candidate in my books, but he deserves a look as a possible SK for sure. I'm getting a much more wishy-washy feeling from slOosh than I had in a previous game I played with him. None of his posts seem committal and he constantly seems to be deferring decisions in the game to other players: I.E.: Also, his "longer" posts have been more concerned with mechanics than scumhunting: [example] Compare this with the slOosh from C9++ mini mafia: Link to Filter He is quite a bit more assertive and more proactive in finding mafia in this town game: [click][click] @slOosh: What gives, man? Why do you seem so wishy-washy this game? Finally, my own opinion in regards to the roleclaims: I think we should come up with a list of most suspicious people and get them to claim first. People like hiro protagonist. I agree that the post you pointed out does make him a little less likely to be mafia. At the time I was obviously giong to push PaqMan again and talismania had listed the risk.nuke voters and suggested that we look at Palmar or PaqMan. However, the discussion certainly wasn't focused on PaqMan quite yet and that's definitely something strong pointing towards hiro protagonist being town. That being said, I think the final mafia member has to be hiro protagonist, zelblade, or Zephirdd (Zephirdd being a clear third right now because of him taking a hit night 1, but still a possibility). Hopefully we will see more discussion on the subject. I believe any of them would make a fantastic lynch target today (pending hiro protagonist's roleclaim of course). I had noticed that there was something off about slOosh as well. I agree that he probably isn't mafia (in fact, I would go so far as to say he almost certainly isn't mafia - his attack on PaqMan during day 1 was way too strong for that), but he's one of my higher SK suspects right now. This is mostly because I expected him to play a more active role in the discussion on day 1. I'm okay with giving you tiers of players I would like to see roleclaim. I'll explain what I would like to see in a separate section at the end of this post. + Show Spoiler [zelblade] + On May 22 2012 17:16 zelblade wrote: Regarding the roleclaim plans, I have stated n1 that I was comfortable with it. I maintain this stance. Qatol's suggested change seems good too, so I would like for us to follow it today. Now to the more important stuff. So you think im scum based off a few weak points. First off, you mention that I defended Paqman. What you dont mention is that I did this near the start of D1, wherein I felt that there was a reasonable explanation of a town Paqman, since I could symphatise with how he mentioned that he didnt contribute much to the plans due to the fact that the plans were already pretty much set when he entered the thread - something similar happened for me, not being able to access the thread till very late in the drafting phase. I never mentioned paqman again in the thread for the primary reason of day 1 being occupied with sentinel, and I didnt find it neccessary to reveal my reads during the night. Also, what the hell do you mean by a "soft" defense? Do you really want me to come out guns blazing and say that Paq is confirmed town D1 based on things that I werent certain of? Qatol's case was an excellent way to apply pressure, why would I bother giving Paq any more help? I was simply stating my thoughts on what I felt was going to be a townie lynch, how is that scummy? Have you never had a wrong read D1? You say I "scold" risk for not following the plan, and reference that I did something similar to decondo. The reason for "scolding" (I dont even know why you call it that when it was just a plea to ask him to follow the damm plan) was because I wanted janitor to be accountable, and felt his actions were really retarded if they were townie at that point in time, since he had the potential to cause a chaotic day 1 which might not have ended so well - (read: if sentinel simply claimed he didnt take janitor). Off you go to write your full case. Anyway, speaking of this, I find the way Hiro calls me out to be extermely suspicious. Im just rehashing a couple of Qatol's points - but why have you been lurking so actively? You say that your activity levels flactuate, but looking at the timestamps clearly indicate that you came out of lurking around 15 minutes after Qatol called you out. Coincidence? I think not. The way that you write suspicions on me are also suspect. You take a old post of mine compared to a recent one of yours and say that it is why I am a better shot and frankly thats complete bullshit as Qatol mentioned due to the time difference between them. Not to mention that your suspicions on me makes me feel that you are using said suspisions as a way to draw heat off yourself and onto me. And of course mafia can claim JOAT - but why do so, and a townie that actually picked it and failed (read:me) will do so too. I dont see your point here I would be rather happy to lynch him right now, though if we are putting the roleclaim plan into effect I am more than willing to wait a little to see what comes out of it. The roleclaim plan is more to help us narrow down who the SK is. I don't believe it will help us very much in finding the last scum (but I obviously could be wrong). The only reason I mentioned I want to hear hiro protagonist's roleclaim first is because I want an idea of what role we would be potentially lynching. Also, he may be able to narrow down our SK search some more. I'm glad to hear that you would like to lynch hiro protagonist, but could you explain why a bit more? Is it simply that you agree with my case on him? Is anyone familiar with hiro protagonist's history so we can compare it to this game? Sorry to be lazy about it, but I simply don't have time for research on the subject today. + Show Spoiler [hiro protagonist] + On May 22 2012 18:25 hiro protagonist wrote: First off, Im a little tipsy. Just a heads up. Ill address Qatols questions: First, for my activity, I had left the thread sometime after the PacMan flip, and did not check in for a while. When you had made your post on me I was in the middle of re-reading the thread and going though filters. I had been doing that for a couple hours by that point, and was not even planing on responding right away, but then you asked risk to shoot me, and I thought this was some sort trap because at the time I thought Vigs only had 1 bullet, and I brought It up. Had you not brought up a case against me,(and especially one that would have me die in the night) I most likely would not have posted at all until the day post, when I would have brought out my full case on zelblade, because I did not have the time to construct it out today. Instead, I made an half ass case because I thought I might die, an I wanted people to look at zelblade if I did die. Second, The two quotes are indeed at different times, and putting them side by side is slightly more pathos than I intended. I can see why zelblade thinks Im misrepresenting him at this point. I put up my quote to aid in my defense. I posted zels because I wanted to go into discussion about not just that he soft defended him but HOW he did. Its not just one thing hes done, but a set of actions that collectively draw me to the conclusion that he is mafia. I plan on addressing this with my full right up on zelblade come morning. Third, ok, roleclaiming, its all the rage i guess. But sense i did not die last night, Ill hold for now. Im down for any organized claiming. just let me know when its my turn One last thing: I was roleblocked last night. see you in the morning I look forward to seeing your full case on zelblade. Like I mentioned earlier, I really feel like the final mafia member is probably one of the three of you, so please persuade me that it isn't you and is zelblade if that is how you feel. On May 22 2012 19:55 Palmar wrote: We should just murder sandroba, it's a really nice and easy way to continue today. And it would be nice and easy way to lynch a probable townie. Could you please start putting a LOT more effort into this game? This is got to be one of the laziest performances I've ever seen out of a "veteran player". + Show Spoiler [Toadesstern] + On May 22 2012 20:10 Toadesstern wrote: Was Qatol shot? We're missing one KP again. SK has 1 KP and mafia has 1 KP but there's only one dead guy and I guess whoever shot blue went for a save hit rather than someone looking good to avoid protection. So unless somehow SK and Mafia (going to use "mafia" for both SK and mafia from now on...) BOTH had the same idea and BOTH shot the exact same guy we're missing one guy. I'd assume Qatol jailed risk or marv and I'm pretty sure mafia assumed something along those lines as well. Or at least someone like Risk / marv. The imortant part is that Qatol can't jail himself, even if he could he would probably RB himself before protecting rendering the protection useless :p The the interesting part here is, did mafia shoot into someone like Risk / marv and we'll probably never know because Risk / marv won't get confirmation on that one according to Chaoser, or did mafia shoot Qatol because that would have been the reasonable thing to do if you want to avoid protection, unless of course there's a real medic around, however I'd take that risk over shooting into risk / marv without a second of a thought as mafia. Right now I'd assume Qatol did not jail risk and rather went for his #2 "target" because he said something along the lines "vigs shoot into XYZ" yesterday, didn't he? So he probably wanted risk to shoot because there's not a fantastillion vigs around anymore. Risk could tell us if he was RB'ed but he can not tell us if he was protected and Qatol could just tell us who he jailed :p However the interesting part here is why Qatol is not dead. He is the guy able to save everyones life except for his own. So I'd actually say the 2nd hit was Qatol and he was protected by a real medic. Can't imagine mafia not wanting Qatol dead right now when he's even the save-hit if there's no 2nd medic. Confirmation on who was RB'ed / protected / hit would still be nice to figure this out. I wasn't shot last night. My guess is both the Mafia and the SK think the other will be shooting me, so they are both trying to shoot other players. If I had to guess, I'd guess that the SK shot Bluelightz (specifically hunting for a potential role cop, and finding him). I'd guess that the Mafia likely didn't shoot at all or shot the SK. But that is a pure guess. + Show Spoiler [Zephirdd] + On May 22 2012 20:25 Zephirdd wrote: TBH Barundar should be lynched. Bluelightz makes decent case for the first time in his life -> he is killed the day after. COINCIDENCE? I THINK NOT Now, on a serious note, I agree with the mass claim plan. And I'll agree with it by claiming. There is a Politician in game. I picked Politician and got Vanilla. I wanted to deny/confirm a possible Politician in game, and I didn't claim earlier to create suspicion for mafia(omg, maybe I would be a protective role right?). At this point, this information is better for town. I wanted marv's partner(who isn't me!) to claim because he could be higher up than me on the list, but if the politician(and probably SK) is Barundar as I suspect, I'm the one who should be claiming. Now, if you want a case on Barundar, I present you Bluelightz' best case ever. I think it would be premature to lynch anyone as a SK suspect until we get our roleclaims in order. Please withdraw your vote for now. However, I think it is interesting that someone else is also claiming to have whiffed on Politician. I wish you had claimed earlier - the suspicion isn't as valuable to us as getting a better feel for the location of such an anti-town role. + Show Spoiler [Toadesstern] + On May 22 2012 21:03 Toadesstern wrote: yeah exactly, however I only had the nested quote of this one in my mind, didn't see chaosers update until you just said that: so I thought he assumed he would get a notification when really he would not. But that statement makes clear that he would have gotten an notification which brings us to our problem again: We have a jailer who can protect people but he protected someone that didn't end up being shot and we're missing KP => we probably have a medic or someone shot into a vet / hider. Pretty sure a vet and a medic would get a notification as well, not sure about the hider though. I'm just mentioning that because it could be an issue for the massclaim and I would like Qatols thought on that before starting doing anyting because if we have a medic that could change some things. I'm going to do whatever Qatol says because clearly he's carrying town right now but I want his comment on that one before starting everything to make sure he just didn't forget about that part. Once again, I cannot carry the town any more this game. I'll be around, but I can't keep doing all of the heavy lifting. I would suggest doing a lot more of the thinking on your own and taking the time to make a spreadsheet for yourself. Alternatively, you can spend some time on various people's filters, starting with mine if you feel I'm on the right track, and then moving on to the possible suspects. There are several players in the game now who seem to have a pretty good idea of what we should be doing. If you read a little, you should be able to figure them out relatively easily. I'm relatively sure I know what he's going to claim, and if I'm right, it should take a lot of heat off him. On May 22 2012 21:47 sandroba wrote: I think barundar is the sk (he sugested the cpr mass murder thing, which seemed weird at the time, but I guess it makes sense as sk) and hiro is the mafia. @Palmar How come you are pushing me for not devoting much time to this game while you are yourself doing the same? Let me play diablo in peace. What I said for Palmar goes double for you. "Give me kp and I'll give you dead scum." Hmph. If you don't plan to devote the time to play properly (like because you're going to be spending your time on diablo), don't sign up, especially in a game where a bunch of newer players didn't get in. On May 22 2012 22:42 Mattchew wrote: what do you think about barundar and I think that snarfs/sandroba is the last scum You still haven't answered my earlier question. Do you think it is more valuable for the scum to bus their teammate than to use the JOAT's KP role and let the JOAT survive another day? Also, I bring up a different post than risk.nuke, which is the main reason I cannot see Snarfs as being anything but town: + Show Spoiler + On May 18 2012 10:51 Snarfs wrote: One of risk.nuke, marv, and Sentinel is lying in a manner that is hurting town. This means that one of them is scum. That is a 1/3 chance, much better than any hunches you might have on PaqMan or sandroba or whoever else. To address some points: risk.nuke has voted Sentinel and Sentinel has voted risk.nuke; therefore, it is very unlikely that one of them is lying to draw fire from scum if they have actually chosen Janitor. Sentinel has claimed vanilla town; therefore, is probably the safest lynch of the three if we want to avoid accidentally lynching a blue. @Toad: We are not lynching blind into 3 targets. Read the thread. Read their filters. Make an educated decision. Don't lynch blind. My scum rank for the three are: 1. Sentinel 2. risk.nuke 3. marvellosity Any discussion of targets other than these 3 will only help cause confusion amongst the town and WILL ONLY BENEFIT SCUM. Qatol, I do understand the conviction to lynch a scum you think you've got pegged, but other people (myself included) just don't see the case as that strong. Here we have a 1/3 chance of hitting scum. Those are great odds. Help us out with some analysis of these 3 people rather than tunneling on PaqMan. To conclude: People should talk about Sentinel, risk.nuke and marvellosity because there is a 1/3 random chance that one of them is scum. Talking about other targets will only help mafia because it spreads confusion among a town which must be focused to win the game. Scum has absolutely NO reason to refocus the discussion onto risk.nuke, Sentinel, and marvellosity when there is a chance they will lose their JOAT day one. None at all. Heck, they may not have even WANTED a lynch because it keeps the town busy with this situation longer and keeps us from looking for other accused members (such as PaqMan). Why would the mafia convince slOosh and myself to refocus onto the sentinel/risk.nuke/marvellosity discussion when they benefit from having a split vote? + Show Spoiler [Palmar] + On May 22 2012 23:10 Palmar wrote: I had initial reservations about him, but mostly just the "not-sure-if-town" type of thing. Like I would rather kill a few other people. I still think Toad might be possible scum or something in that lieu. I completely agree on Toad. He is definitely still a possibility. However, I agree that we have better targets right now. I just disagree that sandroba is one of them. + Show Spoiler [Zephirdd] + On May 22 2012 23:19 Zephirdd wrote: Lool! Yeah right. I'm a SK that just claimed vt-politician and is pushing the ass of someone just to be seen as a liar after his flip, RIGHT? Even if I was SK, I'd be dead as soon as you, sloosh and misder died. And this could be achieved as soon as the next night, if you consider lynch+vigi+mafia shot. Don't be silly mr SK. Woah, calm down a little, please. He said that it's possible you took politician and are lying about it. He even said he doubted it was true. I agree with him completely. We have already seen something similar to this happen in this game with Sentinel. Are you really getting on zelblade simply for being careful? As far as claiming tiers go, I would suggest the following: Tier 1: slOosh and Misder Tier 2: hiro protagonist and Barundar Tier 3: Snarfs First claim vanilla or role. Second, if vanilla, claim what you tried to take. Third, after the vanillas have all claimed, then claim your role if you got one. Within each step, do them in tiered order. So first slOosh and Misder claim vanilla/role. Then hiro and Barundar (though Barundar has already done this, so ignore him for this step). Then Snarfs. Then move on to the vanilla claiming step, etc. Also, marvellosity, who is your townie? (Here's hoping it isn't Snarfs.) | ||
Qatol
United States3165 Posts
1. Palmar, I realize now that my last post regarding you was extremely harsh. I apologize. That being said, it feels like your reads are completely different from mine even though I think you're town, and that is very frustrating to me. Maybe it's because you're trying to rely on behavior while I've been relying mostly on logic? Also, I think I'm still reacting poorly to the way you posted during the pre-day 1 phases. Regardless, I was out of line. You are clearly putting in an effort. That being said, I still don't think sandroba is mafia because I can't see mafia busing in that position. 2. Snarfs, you being the mason townie makes me sad, and not just because it means we have a bigger list of players to sort through to find the SK. You were my strongest townie read by far and I was hoping to confirm someone else I wasn't quite so sure of. I think you're mostly on the right track. The only thing I'm unsure of is voting for Barundar and assuming that everyone else is telling the truth about their picks (I know others are doing more of this than you are). Do you think we are better served by going for the people who are likely to be SK or the people who are likely to be mafia? Or maybe the one player who stands a decent chance of being either one (Zephirdd)? 3. Hiro, I really hope you're telling the truth, if only because it will be the second and third time I've ever been protected by a medic and that makes me feel warm and fuzzy inside. Regardless, I don't think you're a good target for a lynch with a claim like that. I think both the mafia and the SK have to seriously consider hitting you very quickly or risk having you stop their hits (your role is the most dangerous one out there for them right now), so a claim like that is extremely dangerous for you, and that's good enough for me right now. 4. Misder, I thought Barundar was going to claim roleblocker. That doesn't seem as likely now that you've claimed it. | ||
Qatol
United States3165 Posts
On May 24 2012 01:06 Snarfs wrote: I'm switching my vote to hiro. As others have pointed out, it makes little sense for either of them to claim the way they did. However, it makes less sense for Barundar to claim that role second. The only goal Barundar could have is to get the doctor lynched so that he has a free shot at Qatol tonight, but then he still dies tomorrow and mafia lose. If Barundar is mafia, at the time of his claim, he had given his team a ZERO percent chance at winning. At least hiro, with his earlier claim, could have been hoping that Barundar did not pick doctor, in addition to knowing that if he causes a mislynch of a doctor he can shoot Qatol. If Hiro is mafia, at the time of his claim, he had a GREATER THAN ZERO percent chance of winning. In addition to this, hiro makes the most sense for mafia. I agreed with much of what Qatol said in his case and had come to similar conclusions before the whole roleclaim. Especially notice how he just says that he does not think we should lynch Sentinel without any reasoning. [Link] Now, knowing that he is in the mess of things, I think that he is a more viable target than Barundar. Think about it from Barundar's and hiro's perspectives. Barundar just threw the game if he's either mafia or SK. This would be the last explanation I would give for anyone's play on TL. hiro at least had a chance that Barundar would not claim doctor. I suggest everyone switch to hiro as it makes more sense logically for him to be mafia. ##Unvote Barundar ##Vote hiro protagonist I would like to emphasize one thing on top of this (I agree that resolving Barundar vs. hiro protagonist is the correct next move and hiro is the better lynch candidate). Barundar claimed doctor second. It makes a lot less sense to lie about your role and claim to have gotten it when it has already been claimed. If he were lying mafia, I don't understand why he wouldn't simply claim a reasonable role which hasn't been claimed yet like Bullet Bill or Veteran. Claiming doctor the way Barundar did is very pro-town and gives us a no-brainer lynch on hiro protagonist next. Obviously, if hiro flips town, then we have an easy next lynch. ##Vote: hiro protagonist | ||
Qatol
United States3165 Posts
On May 24 2012 01:53 Toadesstern wrote: EBWOP: + Show Spoiler [clicky!] + On May 24 2012 01:51 Toadesstern wrote: if that would be the case it would be best to lynch Barundar, because clearly he is either mafia or SK according to you except for scenario two where he "only" got a 50% chance to be SK. The reason this is wrong is because the conclusions are wrong. If hiro is medic mafia anyone could be the SK. Yes Barundar could be the SK as well but it could be zephird, myself, or someone else as well. Same goes for if hiro is mafia _____ Actually, there are several mistakes, but the big one is treating them like they are equally likely. In fact, I think scenario 1 is nearly impossible, if not completely impossible. I don't believe Barundar would suicide by giving us a 50/50 lynch when we can afford to mislynch. However, the conclusion is correct. Townies have no reason to lie right now. If hiro flips mafia medic, then Barundar has to be SK. I think the most likely situation is that hiro is mafia ____ (not medic), in which case we have a few candidates for SK - Zephirdd, Barundar, Toadesstern, and slOosh. (Note: either Zephirdd is the lying Politician or he is town and the role is actually above him, so we don't need to consider Palmar or hiro for SK. zelblade doesn't make sense for SK because, while he would know JOAT was in the first 4 picks as mafia, he would have no way of specifically claiming that role had gone as SK unless he tried to take it.) However, I think Barundar should be the last lynch on that list (assuming hiro flips red) and Toadesstern should be second to last. So really it's probably either Zephirdd or slOosh. Misder's conclusions are correct for the case in which hiro flips town. Barundar is an easy next lynch. | ||
Qatol
United States3165 Posts
On May 24 2012 02:19 Zephirdd wrote: Well, I suppose we have enough time. I really want Barundar lynched because I'm sure about him, but after hiro's flip risk could always shoot him, we still have a town RB right? I don't want a no-lynch and even though we got plenty of time, there is a possibility I won't be around near the end of the day. Also, if hiro flips medic Barundar is SK Politician, be hiro a mafia or town. btw if you guys read the game, Politician can't be scum. Or else risk would be dead at this point. Does this mean that you're switching your vote to hiro? | ||
Qatol
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On May 24 2012 08:46 Qatol wrote: Misder, please don't get modkilled now. Hopefully you see this and vote in time. Never mind, Misder voted. Chaoser, I think you missed it. | ||
Qatol
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On May 24 2012 12:13 sandroba wrote: Wow barundar way to play against your wincon and fuck town over while you are at it. Srsly why would you ever do this. I hope you shoot toad tonight as a payback for town, since you are getting lynched either way tomorrow. No way did he play against his win condition. He survived a lynch he probably wouldn't have otherwise (considering the bandwagon on him at the time). Your accusation is very serious and I think you should be treating it that way. You do realize that we have permabanned people for playing against their win condition before, don't you? Is Barundar's behavior permaban-worthy? On May 24 2012 13:55 Snarfs wrote: Interesting... I'm not sure if shooting Barundar is the play here when we can lynch him tomorrow and possibly let risk get rid of someone he finds suspicious. Either way though, he should definitely be roleblocked. I'd probably shoot Toad or zephir here to clean up some of the unconfirmable roles who were on the wrong side of the Sentinel lynch. slOosh can check into the opposite one. I would rather shoot + roleblock Barundar right now so we know what we're aiming for (looking for scum or SK) during tomorrow's lynch. The problem with a shot on someone else now and then a lynch on Barundar is that I believe the candidate list is different for each and I'd like to be sure of which list we should be looking at. I don't want to shoot someone who is only likely a SK candidate and then watch Barundar flip SK or vice versa. Besides, I think the town would benefit from more discussion during the lynch. I agree that slOosh can check into one of the unconfirmable roles (Toadesstern, Zephirdd, and Sandroba), but I don't think he should tell us which one in advance for fear that the last scum is a Framer. | ||
Qatol
United States3165 Posts
On May 24 2012 17:00 Toadesstern wrote: Barundar is on the SK list himself making it pretty likely that he will indeed just flip SK and not mafia, like we already said. Hiro had a chance to flip mafia and about no chance to flip SK and Barundar had a chance to flip SK but about no chance to flip mafia. So I'd say we're looking for a mafia and I hope my d1 read about Sandroba was right :3 Don't try to get fancy. Take the confirmed anti-town kill. It doesn't make sense to try and kill anyone other than Barundar tonight. | ||
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On May 25 2012 02:49 slOosh wrote: Righto, will be RNGing my final check from Toadesstern, Zephirdd, and Sandroba (Qatol's recommended list). Hopefully it isn't too late to add zelblade to that list? I think hiro protagonist may have had a point about him, and he somehow slipped off my list earlier. Other than his roleclaim during day 1, his posting looks really suspicious. He hasn't attacked any player other than hiro protagonist (who was attacking him) and Barundar (when everyone else was picking on Barundar as well). He's been pretty passive and his posting has been extremely wishy-washy all game. | ||
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Qatol
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On May 25 2012 12:16 Snarfs wrote: Interesting.... Can't wait to hear this explanation. It says in the Q&A that a roleblock will remove SK bulletproof. I was roleblocked + shot at and saved (in other words Qatol successfully protected me). Glad I finally blocked a hit. Also, I agree. I don't understand what happened. Roleblock + vigi hit should have worked. Oh well, I think we still have to lynch Barundar right now. There really isn't another option. We can try to sort out why the vigi shot didn't work out via discussion, but the lynch has to be on Barundar. ##Vote: Barundar | ||
Qatol
United States3165 Posts
On May 25 2012 13:17 sandroba wrote: risk.nuke Claimed Vigilante shot paqman marvellosity Claimed Mason -> partner is townie who tried for politician Mattchew Dayvig shot deconduo zelblade Claimed VT tried for JOAT Misder Roleblocker Toadesstern Claimed VT tried for mason Barundar most likely sk soon to be dead Zephirdd Claimed VT tried for politician Palmar Claimed Pardoner Snarfs VT tried for politician Qatol Jailer -> Jailed risk n1 modconfirmed sandroba VT tried for mason Okay so basically this is what we have right now. Out of the guys not in green misder is the most likely to be town in my opinion. Palmar can prove he is town and not GF by pardoning himself. That leaves Toad and Zeph. We will have most likely 10(1) at the next day. Let's count the palmar lynch and if he is not scum he doesn't die so > 9(1). Considering only 3 people can really be mafia it's pretty much gg. Not considering risk shooting into those guys if somehow he forgot to send in his shot or something. I wouldn't color zelblade green just yet. However, he can't be traitor, he would have to be the final mafia member if he's scum. Also, Palmar can't pardon himself. | ||
Qatol
United States3165 Posts
On May 25 2012 16:55 sandroba wrote: @Qatol Do you think it's possible zelblade outed the scum on top for no reason, by claiming that shit way early? Why would he do that as mafia? Because when he did that, the hammer vote had already been cast. He hinted that he tried for a role which lined up with something higher up earlier than when he claimed his missed role, but he didn't say the role he missed on was JOAT until 30 minutes before voting closed, when there were already 10 votes on Sentinel. He still kept his vote on risk.nuke even though the only way Sentinel could be town was if both risk.nuke and marvellosity were lying about their role selections. On May 25 2012 21:06 Toadesstern wrote: Ok, there are 3 possible Roleblockers in the game: 1)]Roleblocker: That's what misder claims to be, right? 2)Jailkeeper : That's Qatol right? 3)Traitor: that guy has a one-time roleblock I'm saying "right?" because I'm really in a hurry right now. I need to go but this eather means Misder is lying or that we have a Traitor. I'd usually say misder claiming RB and roleblocking risk would be to stupid for mafia to make but after I saw sent flip and we're about to see barundar flip I'm not going to use that argument anymore Anyways I think a traitor is more likely although I don't know why. Sandroba still looks like a nice target for me considering his uselessness this game and how he made no sense the first couple of day and was playing against EVERYTHING he told me he likes to do as a townie in skype when he hydrad in C9++. That being said we obviously lynch Barundar first but may as well start looking for 1 or 2 mafias around and I'm off for the next couple of hours, as mentioned. ##vote Barundar There are actually 4 possible explanations for what happened: 1. There is a traitor in the game and the traitor roleblocked risk.nuke (Traitor would have to be one of Sandroba, Toadesstern, Zephirdd, Barundar, and Palmar). 2. risk.nuke is lying about being roleblocked and he did not actually try to shoot Barundar. 3. Misder is lying about trying to roleblock Barundar and he roleblocked risk.nuke instead. 4. I jailed risk.nuke (obviously wrong because both Snarfs and I have verified that I saved Snarfs last night). What alignment does a traitor who was originally townie show up as to an alignment check? Pending the answer to that, we may be able to eliminate Palmar (remember, SlOosh checked him and claimed that Palmar was the same alignment as talismania) from #1. Sandroba is also unlikely as a traitor because he claimed he missed on Mason extremely early - well before anyone else claimed they had taken Mason. If Barundar is traitor, then the SK has to be either Zephirdd or Toadesstern. The final mafia would have to be Zephirdd, Toadesstern, Palmar (would have to be Godfather), or zelblade unless mafia bussed their teammate on day 1, sacrificing a KP to do so. I'm really hoping that #2 or #3 isn't what happened because there's no way to know which one happened without killing risk.nuke and Misder. | ||
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On May 25 2012 22:36 zelblade wrote: I doubt misder is lying since roleblocking palmar and hiro (as scum) makes little sense. Whilst it is possible that he did it in order to prepare for a claim situation later on, I am more inclined to think that hes town for now. Its not possible for barundar to be traitor, because in that case Misder would have roleblocked his roleblock on risk. (I think) Not really sure how the night actions resolve but this would seem to be the most logical...? That probably means that we have a traitor somewhere in the list. Well he cant do much at this point considering how a rolecop is absolutely useless except for lucking out into a fakeclaiming mafia, talk gets him lynched instantly unless he lucks out into a mafia again. The only problem is that he might have used his frame ability on Palmar or Tails n1/2, which would be problematic. Unlikely since that would require quite a lot of luck, but something to consider. The possible candidates for mafia/traitor are Misder, Toad, Zeph and Sandroba. Include myself if you so incline but I know im green so ill exclude me, and Palmar if you feel that its possible he got framed. Leaving him out for now as it is, as said, really unlikely. I shall be reading through the thread to come to some conclusions. @Matt I dont think traitors have to be dead for town to win. I didn't think of a frame on Palmar or talismania. I think you're right though - it's possible, but extremely unlikely. But that could mean that SlOosh's check of Palmar was tampered with. You are correct that Barundar can't be traitor because the roleblocks wouldn't line up. That situation in my earlier post is incorrect. The only way Barundar is traitor is if Misder is also mafia, which I think is unlikely. You aren't a candidate for traitor, only for mafia. As traitor, you would have no way of knowing that the mafia had picked JOAT. | ||
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On May 26 2012 22:01 chaoser wrote: Do you guys need me to post an updated list of links to the other day/night posts? I think we're okay. We can just find your filter for now and GMarshal can update whenever he's feeling better. Does the traitor take over the night kill if the entire mafia team is dead? Or is it possible that nobody has a night kill? Guys, calm down and be a little nicer. Remember, we're all friends here. Zephirdd, the only thing I can think of for why I'm still alive is because I was the medic target the first 2 nights (and mafia/SK saw this), and last night mafia thought that a parity cop would do more damage than I would. Who knows what SK thought (maybe that Snarfs was doing a good job of organizing the town and was thus a higher priority? maybe that slOosh was a potential mafia so the mafia might hit me?). As far as lynch prospects go, and assuming Barundar is SK, there are a few things I think we need to resolve. 1. Is there a traitor? If there is one, let's look at the players who could possibly have the role: Toadesstern, Palmar, sandroba, and Zephirdd. Toadesstern claimed his mason role only after sandroba and marvellosity claimed. Palmar has an unverifiable role unless we ask him to pardon someone (if he doesn't simply get modkilled). I'm unsure about sandroba. On the one hand, he claimed whiffing on mason very early. On the other hand, he was last in the draft order, so a whiff claim is much safer than it is at any other position. And he hasn't contributed much to the discussion until recently. Zephirdd claimed he whiffed on a role which someone else had already claimed a whiff on. It's unverifiable without a lynch. He took a hit, but that's irrelevant if he's traitor. If this is the case, the player I like the most as mafia is Zephirdd. He's the only player who really hasn't attempted to contribute much to the discussion while still being on the risk.nuke voting list. In fact, he could have even attempted to grab Politician as scum, so his claim of getting vanilla doesn't have to be unbelievable. 2. If there isn't a traitor, then either risk.nuke or Misder is mafia. risk.nuke shot PaqMan when many expected a shot on Palmar instead. I think this rules him out. Misder wasn't on the Sentinel voting list, so I don't like him either, but if there isn't a traitor, then I think he's probably our best bet between these two. TL;DR: I think we should be looking at either Misder or Zephirdd as our last mafia. If the mafia member isn't Misder, then we have a traitor to hunt for as well. | ||
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Anyways, with him flipping SK, we know for sure that we are looking for a mafia (Misder) or a mafia and a traitor (if Misder is not mafia). I think the latter case is more likely. We have 10 townies and 1 mafia or 9 townies, 1 mafia, and 1 traitor left. This means we have 2 mislynches and 1 missed vigi hit (assuming the mafia doesn't hit the traitor) to burn. This is obviously changed if we kill the mafia sooner. risk.nuke, please tell us who you will be shooting tonight. I recommend Zephirdd, however, I'd like to hear Snarfs's opinion on Misder. Who wins if we have 1 townie and 1 traitor remaining? Is it a draw? | ||
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On May 28 2012 08:27 risk.nuke wrote: I find it It is unlikely. That being said, I'm trying to make sure that nothing can surprise us at this point. And it definitely is in the mafia's best interest to roleblock you to protect the SK. | ||
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On June 07 2012 12:24 Mattchew wrote: this game (at no fault of the mods more the fault of qatol) was retarded chaoser I thought your modding was perfect. Thanks so much! ??? What did I do? Thanks for modding in such a tough situation, chaoser. PYP games are especially hard to mod and I thought you handled it well, all things considered. | ||
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On June 07 2012 12:59 Zephirdd wrote: oh and happy bday qatol Thanks! | ||
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On June 07 2012 18:08 Palmar wrote: I guess I owe you guys an explanation. I did not ragequit this game or anything like that like I saw suggested. Sure, I was wrong on one guy at the start, but my ego can handle that easily. I'm cocky enough to still think I'm awesome. The problem was that the night before I announced I'd be asking for a replacement my gf had a miscarriage after 11wks of pregnancy, which is fairly late. It's not the end of the world, but I just had other things to do than play mafia. Obviously a thing like this is much harder for the girl than the guy, so I had to be there for her, and not spend hours reading and analyzing forum posts. It's all good now, I even sent GM a message saying I could in theory rejoin the game the day before I got modkilled. But that probably wouldn't have been fair anyway, so with no one being able to replace in, I got modkilled. So yeah, sorry about disappearing, but shit happens. I'm so sorry. I hope both of you are okay. I completely understand you asking to be replaced. Don't worry about it. That very clearly takes priority. I hope both of you are able to move past it. I wish both of you the best. | ||
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I didn't find deconduo! I actually had him pegged as Serial Killer when you shot him, not mafia. And hiro protagonist is the one who found zelblade, not me. Also, Sentinel kinda gave himself away. I didn't really have that much to do with it. risk.nuke worked through the logic much faster than I did. That being said, I apologize to the town. I didn't play as well as I wanted to play this game, specifically starting during day 1 and for the rest of the game after that. I promise I'll be better next time. | ||
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On the other hand, I am disappointed in other players, specifically Mattchew and sandroba. Mattchew, it felt like you weren't putting in the effort necessary to play well during the whole game. You impressed me with the shot on deconduo (though I still think you should have saved it for day 2), but the rest of your game really left me feeling let down. I actually had you as a scum read going into day 1 because I thought you would be a lot more active in the discussion (which is one reason I challenged the conception that you were "confirmed" because of your shot - the other reason being because I come from an era where we actually had truly confirmed townies and PM circles, so the term means something different to me). And after that, it felt like you were relying on other people to make your arguments/do your analysis for you. I was hoping to see you make a few strong cases yourself. Sandroba, the reason I was disappointed in your play was because you had a reputation of being a decent player, but it felt like you put little to no effort into this game until very late. I realize that you were busy playing diablo, but this game had a waiting list, some of whom didn't get into the game at all, and I think you shouldn't have taken up a spot in the game if you weren't going to play it seriously. It isn't like you didn't know diablo would be coming out. Also, it frustrated me a ton that you accused Barundar of playing against his win condition when you came very close to doing the same thing with the way you played this game on cruise control. I was serious about not playing as well as I wanted to. I really should have pushed Barundar over hiro protagonist (I didn't look into the posting behavior as thoroughly as I should have) and I should have caught onto zelblade much sooner. I even had zelblade on my short list for scum before day 1 started but I went against my reads because of the whole role thing. Also, I provided a major distraction during day 1 with the PaqMan thing, and nearly split the vote resulting in a no lynch. Thankfully Snarfs was around to keep us on track. Oh well, something to think about when going forward. By the way, mafia/Barundar: why didn't you shoot me earlier? Were you afraid of a defensive role? If so, why no shot on night 2 (after I roleclaimed) or night 3 (after the medic was dead)? Radfield, GMarshal, Ver, and I were all very surprised that I survived as long as I did, especially with a protection role. | ||
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On June 08 2012 05:59 Mattchew wrote: And to qatol, I could have tried harder but after paqman went down it became a game more based on roles and numbers than behavior analysis as seen in the results (prOcess of elimination lynching should have killed zelblade and won for town) What about the time before PaqMan went down? I still feel like you were extremely lazy during the pre-day 1 process and during day 1 itself. On June 08 2012 06:32 Mattchew wrote: Cool beans dood keep arguing a decision you are the only one (so far) that has a problem with it... And keep calling me retarded... I'm sure this is gonna go well for you... I disagreed with taking away the vigi hit as well, though I understand chaoser's argument that he confirmed risk.nuke as the vigi and me as the jailkeeper. However, I just don't feel that it is worth arguing too much over. What's done is done and nothing we say about it now is going to change anything. Regardless, you aren't helping things by trying to provoke him further like that. | ||
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On June 08 2012 06:52 Mattchew wrote: I didn't care about any plans cause I knew I wouldn't partake in them so why would I expect others to? And then day 1 we had the sent situation... And by day 2 it was a numbers game... I did think barundar was scum so I pushed for him to get shot/lynched but I didn't need to push that hard Then why didn't you mention that? It's clear that others were expecting you to partake. You should have posted your reservations. Day 1 you barely contributed to the sentinel situation. Night 1 you didn't contribute, and you definitely should have. | ||
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On June 08 2012 08:09 chaoser wrote: A mistake on my part should not affect the standings of how well either team is doing. In this case, it did. Had I not made that mistake, the mafia team would have been in decent standings, especially since your shot got blocked by a townie roleblocker. If Paqman later flipped mafia due to a lynch, there would have been heavy pressure on misder for roleblocking a shot that was aimed at a mafia that mafia could have exploited. So I did the best that I could, as a mod, to mitigate the damage that I had done to the game. And it wasn't like I made the decision by myself. I was informed by Qatol that I should end the day early with a no lynch. In that case, since Paqman is dead, the only way he would be dead would be due to your shot. That is why I ended the day early and your shot was taken. Actually, I recommended (or at least was trying to recommend) that you end the day with a no lynch, treating it as if we had lynched PaqMan. I thought the shot should have been refunded. | ||
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On June 08 2012 08:59 chaoser wrote: From: Qatol [ 2925 posts | Profile | Buddy | Report ] Subject: as an aside Date: 5/21/12 03:01 I assume the mafia are whining about the PaqMan shot, or will be soon. If I were a host advisor in this situation, I would probably advise you to just go to night without a lynch and give risk.nuke to try and balance the mistake (assume the town lynched PaqMan). As a player I'm more greedy and more biased, though. I just thought I would throw that out there. It's obviously completely up to you and GMarshal. When I first read it I thought you meant give risk.nuke a chance to try and balance the mistake with his second shot, which he could use right away since day ended and it was night. Yeah, I meant to say "give risk.nuke his shot back to try and balance his mistake". I clearly missed a few key words, my apologies. But that was why I sent this one 40 minutes later: To: chaoser [ Profile | Buddy | Report ] Subject: Re: as an aside Date: 5/21/12 03:40 I'm a little confused about why risk.nuke doesn't get his shot back (assuming for argument's sake that he is one, even if he isn't actually one - to be clear, you aren't admitting anything about his role by answering). This PM conversation indicated that at least Janitor would still be able to use his ability during a future night if he was roleblocked the night he tried to use his ability. Is there a reason why Vigilante works differently? Is it just the different situation? Regardless, what's done is done, and this is a really tangential discussion which won't change anything now. I just wanted to make it clear that I thought you should have given him his shot back. | ||
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On June 08 2012 19:30 Barundar wrote: Really well done by town, town atmosphere was good and there was some good role picks as well. Mafia had 2 vanilla, town had 3. Personally I regret not saving Sentinel day 1 with politician power, but I wanted to keep the role a secret. Turned out Snarf not only confirmed it was in the game, he was also confirmed town, bah ^.^. I'm a little dissapointed how the activity fell after the key townies died, but I guess mafia needed all the inactivity help they could get. @qatol I didn't shoot you because I didn't feel like I was in danger from you, and you where more mafia's problem. So I focused on sniping blues the first few days (sadly mafia did same), and by the time doctor was dead I was already doomed and just shot the confirmed town. I guess emotionaly I didn't want to shoot you for standing up to sandroba either. GG everyone, thanks for hostig guys <3 I don't think you should regret not saving Sentinel. SK needs people to die as quickly as possible. If you had saved Sentinel, it would have been a no lynch, the worst lynch outcome for the SK. Besides, you couldn't have known for sure that Sentinel was the mafia or that he had a KP role until zelblade claimed. You just had a rough position this game because SK needs the mafia to do more early damage than they managed to do. I think you made a good game of it even despite that, so you have nothing to regret. | ||
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Unfortunately, posting a hint the way you did is probably what got you shot. I actually considered protecting you night 2, but I figured you likely had an investigative role and I didn't want to block it if you weren't shot at. So I protected someone I thought was pretty obviously town, made sense as a shot, and had a role which wasn't going to be blocked (Marvellosity). | ||
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