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Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
People have pointed out all the time that I am looking like someone with a townie mindset. Trying to catch scum with that mason thing, confirming marv and all that, yet people come here and say "well that could be Toad doing that for towncred". Why the assumption that I do good things for towncred instead of the assumption "well that looks townish, he's probably town" ?!? I'd say we lynch into Barundar or hiro depending on the last claim and you'll see why :p | ||
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Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
On May 23 2012 06:43 marvellosity wrote: slOosh - don't forget the obvious conclusion - the claims lead to the fact that Barundar chose Politician. So we need him to claim atm. I don't think that's necessarily the assumption to go with. I have a few problems with the assumption that mafia shot the SK last night 100 %. I came to that assumption myself and said so a couple of hours before someone else pointed it out as well but I realized that it's not the only explanation. Same here. I find it hard to believe that someone would deny politician as town. I don't think that role is THAT strong except for the first lynch of the game. Ever after the first lynch the lynches tend to be pretty clearly in one direction. Not to mention that it would be a perfect claim for the real politician as well. He makes everyone on top of him (I'm talking about the list you kids :p ) look bad while he knows that noone else got that role because he himself has it. We don't have a role-Cop anymore to check that and there is no way to check it unless we lynch into something like 4 people to find out there never was a politician within the higher drafts the begin with. That all sounds really convenient imo. Not saying it's him. It just looks fishy imo. However we have to wait for barundars claim to figure this mess out, that way we at least know what happened with the missing night hit. | ||
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Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
On May 23 2012 07:18 marvellosity wrote: Toad, I just meant that if all the claims we have are true, then Barundar must be Politician. I know, it's just not telling us anything. You're basicly saying "if all that was said so far is right the only guy who hasn't said a thing so far has to be the one not telling the truth" which is kinda obvious considering the fact that we're massclaiming and there's probably one guy who's a politician :p If barundar is not talking with us we lynch him. If he claims as well we look at everything from a "complete" point of view rather than speculation what might or might not be confirmed under the assumption that X, Y or Z is probably right. | ||
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Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
On May 23 2012 19:19 zelblade wrote: I actually think that hiro's behaviour has been more scummy as compared to Barundar's. However, I also find it extremely unlikely that the SK/scum would be willing to claim medic at position 16 due to the fact that its rather likely that someone above them in the draft could have taken it, and doing so would obviously force them into a 1-1 trade at best, and when theres one scum/sk left that isnt exactly the best trade. Which means if we go by the assumption that hiro isnt making a (really bad) gambit barundar is the SK. And you think that what Barundar is doing is a good gambit from a mafia / SK point of view? I'd actually say what Barundar claimed makes less sense from a SK / mafia point of view because why the heck should he claim something wrong to get into a 1v1 ON PURPOSE. You're telling us that barundar is not a medic and told us he's a medic on purpose to get into the "it's either Barundar or hiro" position which makes just no sense. Problem here is that we're owning pretty hard right now and maybe mafia / SK want to give up like that. So either way, either hiro did a suicide attempt or Barundar just did a suicide attempt. Barundar fully knowing that one guy already claiemd medic (assumption: he is mafia / SK) which is nuts and playing against his wincon to just get over with this faster when he can't give up due to the other 2 factions still alive. Hiro did not know what barundar was about to claim so maybe he fakeclaimed hoping noone would claim medic. That would theoretically make sense if he's the politician. The politician-VT claim however was someone on a higher draft so that can't be the reason for a fake claim because as mafia he could have just claimed the truth. Only politician needs to fakeclaim in this situation. Fancy conclusion We lynch into one of those two and both actions are somewhat weird. I think barundars actions makes less sense from a mafia / SK point of view but maybe he did that on purpose after seeing how big of an issue that was when dealing with sent. So if the sent thing didn't happen (expectially the part about me being wrong) I would totally say lynch hiro first. However it did happen and therefore it could be on purpose. Not to mention that this could be a cheap "I give up" when a normal surrender is not possible with the other factions still batteling it out. | ||
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Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
##vote: hiro protagonist | ||
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Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
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Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
On May 23 2012 21:07 zelblade wrote: Hey toad if you think that hiro is the SK that would mean that either 1) Theres a really really dumb townie who decided not to claim getting politician. 2) Zeph decieded to lie for no reason about his pick at a point he didnt need to. So unless you think zeph is scum and has decided to suicide, barundar is most likely the sk here. Even if im wrong (which I dont think I am) we could just lynch hiro tomorrow who would be confirmed SK and zeph who would be confirmed scum and win the game. I think we're lynching for mafia right now. Why is barundar most likely to be the sk here? | ||
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Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
Is that under the assumption that your claim (VT who went for politician) is true and therefore there has to be a politician higher on the draft than you are? If that's the reasoning yeah fine with me, I just don't take those things for granted because if I were to take something else for granted I could come up with another explanation that makes more sense. I just don't understand why barundar would claim medic (a role that was already claimed) instead of just something else. He was the last to claim and could have come up with something perfectly fine. If he really is mafia / SK he wants to end the game which is kinda hard to read because if that's the case he's trying to get himself lynched. But yeah, if barundar flips town medic we're lynching hiro and you. Hiro because he fakeclaimed medic and is SK / mafia. You if we still haven't found the SK by then and lynched into mafia. | ||
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Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
We have caught someone who wanted to be caught pants down. That's the thing right now and I don't know if that's his way to give up or if it's something weird. Anyways since I thought Barundar is the most likely to be SK (not mafia though) I am fine with the lynch based on the reads I had before claims went down. After claims went down it's just a coinflip. | ||
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Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
Could be a framer or a godfather as well. | ||
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Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
On May 23 2012 23:46 sandroba wrote: Framer doesn't matter. It doesn't hinge on sloosh not being scum, because as long as he is alive he has to confirm other players anyway. It hinges only on GF. well framer could frame someone else red making us lynch into that guy first and secondly probably lynch sloosh even if he tells the truth because everyone will be like "woooah, you lied, LYNCH HIM" after seeing a red check flip green. Which would be a NL followed by 2 mislynches. Yeah that's pretty much a worst case scenario but given that mafia has a good idea on who to frame it's like a coinflip if there really is a framer. And yes it is thinking about what could go wrong and not about what could go right but I think with out course of action we have right now we're fine because we're going to find a mafia/SK in either hiro or barundar. Pretty much no matter what. So it has some downsides (somewhat unlikely but totally scarry ones) but very little advantages imo. If hiro / Barundar is the SK we can't even shoot him that night and there's plenty of targets that could be shot right now, like risk, marv, snarfs, Qatol and so on. | ||
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Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
On May 24 2012 00:33 Barundar wrote: Didn't expect me to have picked doctor eh hiro? As I said it's smarter to kill Hiro first, since he is obviously lying to anyone who doesnt go by hear say but who actually reads the thread, but at least you are dead the moment I flip  yeah I'd usually say you can't be mafia / SK but the same was already pointed out about hiro. On May 23 2012 19:19 zelblade wrote: I actually think that hiro's behaviour has been more scummy as compared to Barundar's. However, I also find it extremely unlikely that the SK/scum would be willing to claim medic at position 16 due to the fact that its rather likely that someone above them in the draft could have taken it, and doing so would obviously force them into a 1-1 trade at best, and when theres one scum/sk left that isnt exactly the best trade. Which means if we go by the assumption that hiro isnt making a (really bad) gambit barundar is the SK. and here's what can be said about barundar: On May 23 2012 19:19 zelblade wrote: I actually think that hiro's behaviour has been more scummy as compared to Barundar's. However, I also find it extremely unlikely that the SK/scum would be willing to claim medic after someone else claimed medic already, and doing so would obviously force them into a 1-1 trade at best, and when theres one scum/sk left that isnt exactly the best trade. Which means if we go by the assumption that Barundar isnt making a (really bad) gambit hiro is the remaining mafia. Both make equally no sense. I think IF hiro tells the truth barundar is going to flip SK and we still have the mafia left who claimed something else. I think IF barundar tells the truth hiro is going to flip mafia and we still have the SK left who claimed something else. Both stories make equally no sense and one of you is aiming for the "hey this makes no sense from mafia / SK point of view, it's got to be the other guy!", especially after sents flip. | ||
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Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
I just don't think there is a way to figure this out based on the role claims AT ALL. Both are equally mafia-esque. Barundars action makes a little less sense than hiros action from a not-town perspective but he could do that on purpose. I doubt getting the medic (if there is one) is a goal. I'd say the one who is not town out of those 2 gave up the game and wants to be lynched which makes it incredible hard to judge wether something makes sense or not from a mafia point of view. We should see to it that one of those 2 is lynched today, It makes no difference who get's lynched first except for the lucky factor if we hit mafia or town but there's just no reasonable way to figure this out. | ||
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Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
On May 24 2012 01:16 marvellosity wrote: Toad, I disagree. Snarfs comment explains why hiro is the superior lynch. I think so to but not by far and people wanted to barundar lynched first. I'm not exactly in a position were I can talk about 80% of the people and tell them to switch votes. I said Barundars action makes less sense from an anti-town position as well earlier when I was talking with Zephird but he and zelblade disagreed and so I stopped talking about it because as mentioned I don't really have the platform to do that in this game anymore. A hiry lynch is SLIGHTLY better but the important thing is that a lynch happens today so make sure we don't no-lynch please :p | ||
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Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
On May 24 2012 01:43 Misder wrote: If hiro is mafia medic, then Barundar is SK. If hiro is mafia _____, then SlOosh or Barundar is SK. If hiro is town medic, then Barundar is mafia or SK. (Right now, believing scenario 1 actually) ##Vote: hiro protagonist Also, remember we do have a Politician this game, so we cannot have a close lynch. if that would be the case it would be best to lynch Barundar, because clearly he is either mafia or SK according to who except for scenario two where he only got a 50% chance to be SK. The reason this is wrong is because the conclusions are wrong. If hiro is medic mafia anyone could be the SK. Yes Barundar could be the SK as well but it could be zephird, myself, or someone else as well. Same goes for if hiro is mafia _____ | ||
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Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
On May 24 2012 01:51 Toadesstern wrote: if that would be the case it would be best to lynch Barundar, because clearly he is either mafia or SK according to you except for scenario two where he "only" got a 50% chance to be SK. The reason this is wrong is because the conclusions are wrong. If hiro is medic mafia anyone could be the SK. Yes Barundar could be the SK as well but it could be zephird, myself, or someone else as well. Same goes for if hiro is mafia _____ | ||
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Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
On May 24 2012 02:19 Qatol wrote: Actually, there are several mistakes, but the big one is treating them like they are equally likely. In fact, I think scenario 1 is nearly impossible, if not completely impossible. I don't believe Barundar would suicide by giving us a 50/50 lynch when we can afford to mislynch. However, the conclusion is correct. Townies have no reason to lie right now. If hiro flips mafia medic, then Barundar has to be SK. I think the most likely situation is that hiro is mafia ____ (not medic), in which case we have a few candidates for SK - Zephirdd, Barundar, Toadesstern, and slOosh. (Note: either Zephirdd is the lying Politician or he is town and the role is actually above him, so we don't need to consider Palmar or hiro for SK. zelblade doesn't make sense for SK because, while he would know JOAT was in the first 4 picks as mafia, he would have no way of specifically claiming that role had gone as SK unless he tried to take it.) However, I think Barundar should be the last lynch on that list (assuming hiro flips red) and Toadesstern should be second to last. So really it's probably either Zephirdd or slOosh. Misder's conclusions are correct for the case in which hiro flips town. Barundar is an easy next lynch. Agree. I didn't realize that if hiro flips medics it makes barundar a liar lol. But yeah that one is really unlikely to happen. | ||
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Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
On May 24 2012 07:44 hiro protagonist wrote: @zed, A few posts up from yours, I point out that the last scum is one of you, zel, or toad. should none of those turn out to be scum, I guess looking at sandro would be my next guess. sandros scum meta is to be super useful day1/2, and then transitioning into apathy for the game. So far I think he is just bored townie this game, but He is following his scum meta some what. @Snarfs, whoops, sorry I missed it  he asked for scum. What you listed was zel, zeph and myself who all are a more or less reasonable guess for SK due to the politician claim and us being higher on the draft than the politician guy or being the politician guy ourselfes. So that's SK reads, not mafia reads. | ||
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Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
So I'd say we're looking for a mafia and I hope my d1 read about Sandroba was right :3 | ||
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Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
On May 25 2012 00:13 Qatol wrote: Don't try to get fancy. Take the confirmed anti-town kill. It doesn't make sense to try and kill anyone other than Barundar tonight. yeah I know. I just wanted to emphasize that shooting into one of the SK targets is really bad if we are (probably) going to lynch into the SK tomorrow :p | ||
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