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On May 24 2012 01:16 marvellosity wrote:
Toad, I disagree. Snarfs comment explains why hiro is the superior lynch.
I think so to but not by far and people wanted to barundar lynched first.
I'm not exactly in a position were I can talk about 80% of the people and tell them to switch votes.
I said Barundars action makes less sense from an anti-town position as well earlier when I was talking with Zephird but he and zelblade disagreed and so I stopped talking about it because as mentioned I don't really have the platform to do that in this game anymore.
A hiry lynch is SLIGHTLY better but the important thing is that a lynch happens today so make sure we don't no-lynch please :p
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United Kingdom36161 Posts
On May 24 2012 01:24 Toadesstern wrote:
because as mentioned I don't really have the platform to do that in this game anymore.
As an aside, stop with this kind of posting. People get things very wrong all the time, and it's more of a townie trait than scum as townies have less information. If I stopped being assertive every time I was spectacularly wrong, I'd rarely post past Day 1.
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On May 24 2012 01:24 Toadesstern wrote:Show nested quote +On May 24 2012 01:16 marvellosity wrote:
Toad, I disagree. Snarfs comment explains why hiro is the superior lynch. I think so to but not by far and people wanted to barundar lynched first. I'm not exactly in a position were I can talk about 80% of the people and tell them to switch votes. I said Barundars action makes less sense from an anti-town position as well earlier when I was talking with Zephird but he and zelblade disagreed and so I stopped talking about it because as mentioned I don't really have the platform to do that in this game anymore. A hiry lynch is SLIGHTLY better but the important thing is that a lynch happens today so make sure we don't no-lynch please :p
Still plenty of time to get hiro lynched 
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As a bonus hero can tell us who the SK is. Pretty please <3
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If hiro is mafia medic, then Barundar is SK.
If hiro is mafia _____, then SlOosh or Barundar is SK.
If hiro is town medic, then Barundar is mafia or SK.
(Right now, believing scenario 1 actually)
##Vote: hiro protagonist
Also, remember we do have a Politician this game, so we cannot have a close lynch.
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On May 24 2012 01:06 Snarfs wrote:I'm switching my vote to hiro. As others have pointed out, it makes little sense for either of them to claim the way they did. However, it makes less sense for Barundar to claim that role second. The only goal Barundar could have is to get the doctor lynched so that he has a free shot at Qatol tonight, but then he still dies tomorrow and mafia lose. If Barundar is mafia, at the time of his claim, he had given his team a ZERO percent chance at winning.At least hiro, with his earlier claim, could have been hoping that Barundar did not pick doctor, in addition to knowing that if he causes a mislynch of a doctor he can shoot Qatol. If Hiro is mafia, at the time of his claim, he had a GREATER THAN ZERO percent chance of winning.In addition to this, hiro makes the most sense for mafia. I agreed with much of what Qatol said in his case and had come to similar conclusions before the whole roleclaim. Especially notice how he just says that he does not think we should lynch Sentinel without any reasoning. [ Link] Now, knowing that he is in the mess of things, I think that he is a more viable target than Barundar. Think about it from Barundar's and hiro's perspectives. Barundar just threw the game if he's either mafia or SK. This would be the last explanation I would give for anyone's play on TL. hiro at least had a chance that Barundar would not claim doctor. I suggest everyone switch to hiro as it makes more sense logically for him to be mafia. ##Unvote Barundar
##Vote hiro protagonist
I would like to emphasize one thing on top of this (I agree that resolving Barundar vs. hiro protagonist is the correct next move and hiro is the better lynch candidate). Barundar claimed doctor second. It makes a lot less sense to lie about your role and claim to have gotten it when it has already been claimed. If he were lying mafia, I don't understand why he wouldn't simply claim a reasonable role which hasn't been claimed yet like Bullet Bill or Veteran. Claiming doctor the way Barundar did is very pro-town and gives us a no-brainer lynch on hiro protagonist next. Obviously, if hiro flips town, then we have an easy next lynch.
##Vote: hiro protagonist
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On May 24 2012 01:43 Misder wrote:
If hiro is mafia medic, then Barundar is SK.
If hiro is mafia _____, then SlOosh or Barundar is SK.
If hiro is town medic, then Barundar is mafia or SK.
(Right now, believing scenario 1 actually)
##Vote: hiro protagonist
Also, remember we do have a Politician this game, so we cannot have a close lynch.
if that would be the case it would be best to lynch Barundar, because clearly he is either mafia or SK according to who except for scenario two where he only got a 50% chance to be SK.
The reason this is wrong is because the conclusions are wrong. If hiro is medic mafia anyone could be the SK. Yes Barundar could be the SK as well but it could be zephird, myself, or someone else as well.
Same goes for if hiro is mafia _____
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EBWOP: + Show Spoiler [clicky!] +On May 24 2012 01:51 Toadesstern wrote:Show nested quote +On May 24 2012 01:43 Misder wrote:
If hiro is mafia medic, then Barundar is SK.
If hiro is mafia _____, then SlOosh or Barundar is SK.
If hiro is town medic, then Barundar is mafia or SK.
(Right now, believing scenario 1 actually)
##Vote: hiro protagonist
Also, remember we do have a Politician this game, so we cannot have a close lynch. if that would be the case it would be best to lynch Barundar, because clearly he is either mafia or SK according to you except for scenario two where he "only" got a 50% chance to be SK. The reason this is wrong is because the conclusions are wrong. If hiro is medic mafia anyone could be the SK. Yes Barundar could be the SK as well but it could be zephird, myself, or someone else as well. Same goes for if hiro is mafia _____
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Well, I suppose we have enough time. I really want Barundar lynched because I'm sure about him, but after hiro's flip risk could always shoot him, we still have a town RB right?
I don't want a no-lynch and even though we got plenty of time, there is a possibility I won't be around near the end of the day.
Also, if hiro flips medic Barundar is SK Politician, be hiro a mafia or town.
btw if you guys read the game, Politician can't be scum. Or else risk would be dead at this point.
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On May 24 2012 01:53 Toadesstern wrote:EBWOP: + Show Spoiler [clicky!] +On May 24 2012 01:51 Toadesstern wrote:Show nested quote +On May 24 2012 01:43 Misder wrote:
If hiro is mafia medic, then Barundar is SK.
If hiro is mafia _____, then SlOosh or Barundar is SK.
If hiro is town medic, then Barundar is mafia or SK.
(Right now, believing scenario 1 actually)
##Vote: hiro protagonist
Also, remember we do have a Politician this game, so we cannot have a close lynch. if that would be the case it would be best to lynch Barundar, because clearly he is either mafia or SK according to you except for scenario two where he "only" got a 50% chance to be SK. The reason this is wrong is because the conclusions are wrong. If hiro is medic mafia anyone could be the SK. Yes Barundar could be the SK as well but it could be zephird, myself, or someone else as well. Same goes for if hiro is mafia _____
Actually, there are several mistakes, but the big one is treating them like they are equally likely. In fact, I think scenario 1 is nearly impossible, if not completely impossible. I don't believe Barundar would suicide by giving us a 50/50 lynch when we can afford to mislynch. However, the conclusion is correct. Townies have no reason to lie right now. If hiro flips mafia medic, then Barundar has to be SK.
I think the most likely situation is that hiro is mafia ____ (not medic), in which case we have a few candidates for SK - Zephirdd, Barundar, Toadesstern, and slOosh. (Note: either Zephirdd is the lying Politician or he is town and the role is actually above him, so we don't need to consider Palmar or hiro for SK. zelblade doesn't make sense for SK because, while he would know JOAT was in the first 4 picks as mafia, he would have no way of specifically claiming that role had gone as SK unless he tried to take it.) However, I think Barundar should be the last lynch on that list (assuming hiro flips red) and Toadesstern should be second to last. So really it's probably either Zephirdd or slOosh.
Misder's conclusions are correct for the case in which hiro flips town. Barundar is an easy next lynch.
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On May 24 2012 02:19 Zephirdd wrote:
Well, I suppose we have enough time. I really want Barundar lynched because I'm sure about him, but after hiro's flip risk could always shoot him, we still have a town RB right?
I don't want a no-lynch and even though we got plenty of time, there is a possibility I won't be around near the end of the day.
Also, if hiro flips medic Barundar is SK Politician, be hiro a mafia or town.
btw if you guys read the game, Politician can't be scum. Or else risk would be dead at this point.
Does this mean that you're switching your vote to hiro?
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On May 24 2012 02:19 Qatol wrote:Show nested quote +On May 24 2012 01:53 Toadesstern wrote:EBWOP: + Show Spoiler [clicky!] +On May 24 2012 01:51 Toadesstern wrote:Show nested quote +On May 24 2012 01:43 Misder wrote:
If hiro is mafia medic, then Barundar is SK.
If hiro is mafia _____, then SlOosh or Barundar is SK.
If hiro is town medic, then Barundar is mafia or SK.
(Right now, believing scenario 1 actually)
##Vote: hiro protagonist
Also, remember we do have a Politician this game, so we cannot have a close lynch. if that would be the case it would be best to lynch Barundar, because clearly he is either mafia or SK according to you except for scenario two where he "only" got a 50% chance to be SK. The reason this is wrong is because the conclusions are wrong. If hiro is medic mafia anyone could be the SK. Yes Barundar could be the SK as well but it could be zephird, myself, or someone else as well. Same goes for if hiro is mafia _____ Actually, there are several mistakes, but the big one is treating them like they are equally likely. In fact, I think scenario 1 is nearly impossible, if not completely impossible. I don't believe Barundar would suicide by giving us a 50/50 lynch when we can afford to mislynch. However, the conclusion is correct. Townies have no reason to lie right now. If hiro flips mafia medic, then Barundar has to be SK. I think the most likely situation is that hiro is mafia ____ (not medic), in which case we have a few candidates for SK - Zephirdd, Barundar, Toadesstern, and slOosh. (Note: either Zephirdd is the lying Politician or he is town and the role is actually above him, so we don't need to consider Palmar or hiro for SK. zelblade doesn't make sense for SK because, while he would know JOAT was in the first 4 picks as mafia, he would have no way of specifically claiming that role had gone as SK unless he tried to take it.) However, I think Barundar should be the last lynch on that list (assuming hiro flips red) and Toadesstern should be second to last. So really it's probably either Zephirdd or slOosh. Misder's conclusions are correct for the case in which hiro flips town. Barundar is an easy next lynch.
Agree. I didn't realize that if hiro flips medics it makes barundar a liar lol. But yeah that one is really unlikely to happen.
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derp I went away without this
##unvote
##Vote hiro protagonist
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Also, it doesn't make sense for an SK to be giving up at this point so that train of thought doesn't work.
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A mafia medic hiro would have undoubtably protected PaqMan. We can rule that possibility out.
I still think hiro went with a really safe claim and the lack of promised case / findings puts him at anti-town for me.
And since he can't be SK (barring someone not sending in KP which I don't buy) he must be the mafia ____.
##Vote: hiro protagonist
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Its cool i guess.
roleblock Baurnder and shoot him tonight.
last scum is one of zel, zed, or toad. Im sorry I never followed through with a case on zel, but I became less sure of his scummyness. He still needs to be looked at. Zed needs to be grilled. If those 2 are not scum, toad should be considerd.
I cant argue that Baurnders claim from a scum/sk perspective would be stupid, and thus, It makes no sense to do that as scum/sk. Logicly, it makes sense to lynch me first, but its not the first time scum did something bad this game so, oh well.
Should Baurnder flip scum for some reason, Sandro should be looked at for sk. Im like 99.9% sure Qatol is town, but if he is still alive with 5 people left, he could be playing the SK game of a lifetime, altough very unlikely..
GL HF
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I just realized that Baurnders claim makes sense from an SK point of view IF he thinks Im the last scum. That way when I get lynched, It looks like hes the doc because as scum I would have lied. Would give him great town cred.
To bad for him, Im both town and the Doctor
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To sum up, Snarfs, I found a hole in your logic:
It makes sense for a SK Barunder to counter claim IF he thinks I am scum and lieing. IF that where true, then he would have A MUCH GREATER CHANCE AT WINNING.
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hiro, since you are supposidely town, enlighten us on who the possible scums are before your lynch.
And for the record, I'd much rather kill Barundar, but at this point hiro is going down anyway.
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EPT
