EPTLiar Game Mini Mafia
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Mr. Wiggles
Canada5894 Posts
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Mr. Wiggles
Canada5894 Posts
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Mr. Wiggles
Canada5894 Posts
Obviously, an optimal strategy for lynch choice would be for every person to vote the same way. Then, everyone makes it into Phase B, and no one is safe from being able to be lynched. This makes Phase B more complicated, but I think it's worth it for the choice. What do people think? Results are revealed afterwards, so we should know if someone's lying and made it into the minority. Anyone who does, we can lynch. I don't see a reason townies need to worry about being immune to lynch this early in the game. Perhaps in the later stages, where it's feasible scum rig the votes to kill them, but not now. If someone tries that now, we'll know about the ninja bandwagon, because again, the results are revealed. We should try to force scum to play by our rules. They'll be a lot more careful, because there's two scum teams, so I don't see them trying anything too ballsy. Any disadvantage going into the late-game will translate into the other scum-team having more influence than them. Also, because I can, and the name of the game, what do people think of LaL? :p | ||
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Mr. Wiggles
Canada5894 Posts
On April 30 2012 13:13 wherebugsgo wrote: how do you lynch someone who lies and then ends up in the minority pool, when being in the minority pool exempts them from lynch??!?! The next day? Or if there's vigs, we can shoot them. On April 30 2012 13:21 Cephiro wrote: Scum can do whatever they want, as far as I know. Of course it may be possible that there is some sort of vote-controlling/eliminating power-role, but we should not speculate about the setup and concentrate on working what we have. We will not be able to direct scum onto a certain vote unless we manage to fool them of town's intentions, which won't be easy. The thing is, most likely the scum will be splitting their vote to some extent to lessen their lynch candidates. Also, are you joking about the optimal strategy? I don't really hope you are even imagining that to happen. Let's assume some fairy-tale scenarios about your "optimal strategy". 1) Everyone votes for the same option -> Everyone is able to be lynched (What are you trying to gain by this? The town can also benefit from not being lynched.) 2) The majority votes for the same option -> Well, what are you going to do about those who didn't? They are safe from lynch, and unless you possess a KP role you won't be able to do anything about it, but have to wait for the next day and try to manipulate votes in such a way that the person will end up in a majority. 3) Clusterfuck of votes on both options -> Most likely to happen Considering 2), it is highly unlikely that only scum would try to achieve the minority. I do not see it beneficial at start, even for a townie, to try and gain trust by "voting with the majority". I just don't see it happening, and in the case all townies happened to vote for the majority, then there's just a huge bunch of townies (And maybe a scum or two), in line for getting lynched. Everyone able to be lynched means we are not limited in any possible way in who we want to kill. If everyone just votes for whoever, then we're only ever really going to have half of the scum team able to lynch in round B, and there's no guarantee any primary scum targets will make it that far. It means that someone who is incredibly likely to be scum can continue to be in the minority day after day without being able to be lynched. That's incredibly sub-optimal. Additionally, there's no particular reason townies need to be in the minority this early in the game. What's the benefit? I'm not here to hold people's hands. If they're that townie they need lynch protection on day 1 or 2, then they should prove it, and thus get enough votes to live through round B. I think of this voting system as a reverse lynch. We vote for who we want to keep alive. That means you should be putting effort into this game. Lurkers and inactives aren't going to be able to coast along, because I for one, am not going to throw any votes at them. I don't mean even bad townies need to become scumhunter extraordinaires, but they should be putting some kind of effort into the game, so that we can know they're actually trying, and hopefully, that they're town. For point two, it gives us targets to kill or lynch the next day. Like I said, there's not much reason to want to be in the minority as town, unless your game-plan is to just not play and coast along on a bare minimum of effort. To address point three, this would be a policy vote. Everyone would agree to it, and those who stray off the path will be put under intense scrutiny. If only a couple people try to get in the minority, we just kill them. If it's large number, then it just means the plan failed, but that doesn't really hurt us, as we should still hopefully have scum in the majority. I don't think they'd risk throwing every member into the minority on day 1, and then they risk the other scum team doing the same thing and actually becoming a majority, depending how many townies also followed suit. On April 30 2012 13:23 gonzaw wrote: If EVERYBODY arrives at Round B, it's very likely A LOT of townies will be killed. Think about it. All townies will vote for their 5 top town reads (or stack votes on someone). What happens to the "bad" townies that nobody will vote for? They will all die. Scum won't vote for them since they know no other townie will vote for them either. We could end up with various town lynches on D1. That's why I wanted to come up with something that will make only the scummy people on the mayority, or at least, have the players most likely to be town in the minority If everybody follows the plan, then those that vote different than they told are scum. After that, you can either get a vig to shoot them (if there is any), maybe luckily have the other scum team shoot them, or change the voting system on later days to ensure that player becomes mayority. The point is that either you have a claimed scum, or the plan goes through The first hours of Day 1 are there to come up with an epic strategy and have people to comment on them and take stances. You can't tell me "concentrate on scumhunting" 1 hour after the Day started. Trust me, I am trying to scumhunt by generating discussion and forcing people to take stances on it. Well, we could come up with a vote strategy for phase B as well, if we have to. Looking at the player-list, we hopefully shouldn't have too many weak or bad townies, so that no one will vote for them. Also, the chances of all of them dying are actually very low, so long as we're sure to throw some votes on some of them. Remember we have 5 votes, that can be split, so we can spread them around a bit if we have to. If you don't like my plan, what would you suggest in alternative? My plan is very easy to implement, since all everyone has to do is vote the same way. There's no ways to cheat the system besides doing so blatantly. There's no way to manipulate the result into one's favour. There's no way for it to mess up due to complexity. It's simple, forceful, and effective. | ||
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Mr. Wiggles
Canada5894 Posts
On April 30 2012 15:19 EchelonTee wrote: So upon reviewing the thread I have concluded that Mr. Wiggles' plan for "put everyone in the majority" is either gross negligence or a malicious scum plan. Why? If everyone is in the majority (assuming everyone followed the plan, which they wouldn't), that means there are 18 people up for lynch. Normally this would be no problem at all, as everyone is always up for lynch, but due to the rules of this game anyone with 0 votes, or tied for lowest is lynched. If this plan were to be followed, I can all but guarantee that we will have 3+ townies dying simply because no one thought they were important enough to be voted, while scum players can obviously get votes on them. This plan allows for suboptimal townies to be culled at no cost to the scum teams. Mr. Wiggles arguement is that if you're bad then it's fine if you die. I heavily heavily disagree with this. Honestly, I just want to randomly put my vote down and focus on scum hunting because whether I'm in the majority or minority, I don't plan on being mislynched. However, since it's starting to seem like scum may try to abuse the system, I'll follow any plan that has decent logic behind it. Meapak, do you not care about any of the plans that have been put forth so far? The thing about this, is I don't think there can be any other plan that will actually work, and doesn't have the possibility to be heavily abused. I agree that this could end up being somewhat swingy, but based on what you said, what's the difference between my plan and a plan that splits the vote another way? If no one's going to vote for those townies, and I think we could get a way to vote and save them, what makes you think people will vote for them otherwise? If they die in my plan, there's no reason they won't die in someone else's plan, so I don't really get your point at all, since it doesn't say anything. The only difference is I'll have a few deaths on day 1 as the worst case scenario, whereas other plans will simply have them die out over time whenever they hit the majority. Also, since we're only talking about hypothetical players so far, who are these people who nobody is going to vote to save at all? The only person I think you could make a case for would be Katina, but even then, that's only one person. So, please point out all these useless players who are going to be left by the wayside because not a single person will vote for them and thus we'll have multiple people at zero votes. The player-list is very strong in this game. I don't think there's any player who everyone will think isn't worthy of their vote. Every player on that list is capable of playing a strong game, and showing themselves to be town if they put in the effort. I don't see anyone there who'd be left without votes if they put in even a modicum of effort this game. So, it seems that so far people don't really agree with my plan, so here's my counterpoint: What's your idea? It's fine to disagree, but if you have nothing of your own to put up against it, we aren't really accomplishing anything. If no one puts up some other plan to go against mine, then if people don't agree we're going to just fall into random voting, which will be even swingier and unpredictable than any plan someone could come up with. It will wreak havoc with reads and scumhunting, since anyone in the minority is sure to have suspicion on them dissipate, and public analysis and discussion on these players will be squashed as we can't lynch them. All focus will go to players in the majority, making the minority a safe haven for scum, and a place where they can hide until any pressure on them goes away by itself. If you can think of a way to stop this, then I'm all ears, but as of right now, I only really see a mass majority as the way to be able to keep pressure on people and make sure we can lynch who we want. | ||
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Mr. Wiggles
Canada5894 Posts
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Mr. Wiggles
Canada5894 Posts
On April 30 2012 20:02 prplhz wrote: I hope this doesn't end in Ace being shot again. We don't know how many (or even if) we have a vigilante, scum who want to avoid lynch will have like a ~40% chance each day of avoiding the lynch, and they don't even need their scumbuddies' help for this! If we go through with the pardon plan for days then they will even get 100% chance of avoiding lynch and we will need vigilantes to take care of them so potential vigilantes should not use their shot to enforce plans. I imagine that there are roles more related to the central game mechanic, maybe M/M inverters or people who can throw other people from one pool to the other, maybe some hidden votes for round B. I thought about how the vote trading panned out in Hammer Mini Mafia (for those who haven't read, everybody had 5 votes and we had to give some away to other people every night). In that game people might not give votes to the most townie player just because "he would already get a bunch" and then he would end up with none. Also, I think charismatic people might get relatively many votes compared to how "townie" they really appear but we still don't want people like me to die just because no one thought to trade me (goes for other people too). I'm unsure about what to think about big round B plans, I'm always worried about what powers scum may have and I think that just relying on people to do their best should suffice (at least in this game with this infinitely stacked player list). What I'm going to do is that I'm going to split my votes up and throw a bunch of them into people I think other people are likely to vote for, and throw some of them into people I think other people are more unlikely to vote for. If everybody else does this then we're not going to have any problems (and we're going to have a lot of information this way) but if only I do it then there's not really much harm in that anyway. I think it was gonzaw/syllogism who proposed that round B should be an unofficial vote and then we try to kill the "winner" of that vote, but I don't know about that. This is a game about finding townies and if we all agree that someone is scum then we're not going to need a huge plan for getting him lynched, people are just not going to vote for him or they're going to get into trouble. I have never seen an unofficial voting system in action either, at least not one that worked. It seems that there is already a big plan in place for round A and it's kinda alright with me, syllogism and Palmar have good reads on each other so I'm going to go along with whatever they feel like for now. Don't you think that if you just vote who you want and split all your votes up there's a good chance scum will be able to get just enough votes to not be lynched and we'll just end up having a townie die? I think the problem you're trying to address shouldn't come up if we hold everyone to placing their votes in public and not lying about them. Then, there shouldn't be a townie player who gets no votes like you're scared of. Just throwing votes around like that seems like we'll end up with no control over the lynch. So, I'm going to ask you, and also Chaoser since he suggested it as well, why do you support people just voting for whoever? Why do you think it will automagically sort itself out? | ||
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Mr. Wiggles
Canada5894 Posts
All votes are final and cannot be changed once submitted. So, no, people shouldn't be voting right away. Not if we want to do anything similar to the Palmar plan, that is. Also, if Palmar really wants to do his plan, he should be coming out with his list of reads pretty soon, or there will be no time for people to get on and vote. In the final vote counts, do we see who voted who, or just the final tallies? | ||
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Mr. Wiggles
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Mr. Wiggles
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On May 01 2012 04:00 Foolishness wrote: Plans should not be very relevant for the time being. Find a person who you think is mafia and make a case. This discussion will win us the game, not debating what plans we should enact to try to win. If the majority of the town agrees on a person to be killed we should kill that person. As I said it's really easy to get someone killed with the voting system. It's really hard to ensure that all the "townies" survive. No, I'm trying to get something concrete out of Chaoser instead of just "I think Palmar needs to be lynched". That post was directed towards Chaoser. Chaoser, explain why you want to lynch Palmar, and why you think he's scum. You're not going to convince anyone by just saying you want to lynch him. | ||
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Mr. Wiggles
Canada5894 Posts
Also, why did this thread go to Hell in the last two pages? Palmar posted his list of reads after extensive discussion about his plan, and suddenly a whole bunch of people come running out of the woodwork to oppose it, and not in a calm and logical way, but instead in a sort of raving and foaming at the mouth way. | ||
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Mr. Wiggles
Canada5894 Posts
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Mr. Wiggles
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On May 01 2012 09:41 Cephiro wrote: ... Really, I'll make sure the next game I join has a reading and english comprehension test before entering. As for trying to answer more seriously, you are right, I am probably not the most useful townie right now. Does that make me scum? No, it doesn't. There are many others that are not being useful in the way you want them to. Are they also all scum as well? I say tunneling because he admit he would be happy to tunnel if so needed, and tunneling is something you shouldn't do in any circumstances. Although, I guess each and every one of us have our own opinions and limits about what is pressuring and what is tunnelling. You can make cases on me every single minute for all I care, I'll respond each of them if that's what is required to get the fact I am a townie into those thick heads of yours. Why I don't want to be accused with bad cases one after another that are further continued with confirmation bias and exaggeration? Because it's a waste of good town (or scum) effort that could be directed to something useful. As for having secret reasons, sure, I'll come out of the closet since you all keep asking for my secret reasons. I am a vigilante, I breadcrumbed it when I was talking to Ace about how guns still work. Satisfied? You don't think I'm being serious about claiming vig? Why not? Standard D1 play no? + Show Spoiler + If you take the claim seriously, do me a favour and get yourself lynched. So instead of having a tantrum and screaming that you're a townie, why don't you show that you're a townie by doing something useful? Your response to Gonzaw's case so far is to yell over and over that you're town. That's not going to convince anyone more than someone yelling that someone's scum over and over as a case. Gonzaw said that you haven't done anything contributory. So, instead of doing something contributory, you waste a bunch of time having a back and forth with him. If his case is so horrible, and you're town, then why are you so worried about it? You say it won't stick, but instead of ignoring it, it looks like you're putting all your effort into fighting it. That doesn't seem like it fits to me. Instead, it looks like you feel inherently guilty and so you feel the need to address it. Also, you say you're going to keep responding to cases to convince people you're town, but doing so does nothing to convince anyone of anything. You can refute what Gonzaw says, or show his case is bad, but that in no way shows that you're actually town, just that Gonzaw's case is weak. So, if you want people to think you're town, give them a reason to think so! It's pretty simple, but you don't seem to get it. Crying that you're town doesn't make it so, playing for the town does. Your reactions to Gonzaw are just making you look scummy to me. | ||
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Mr. Wiggles
Canada5894 Posts
On May 01 2012 10:10 Cephiro wrote: Well, since you clearly know how to prove oneself as townie, as I believe at this point of the game you are confirmed town to everyone, would you please tell me how I should respond to that case? I've done more than yell over and over that I'm town, but if his case consists of yelling me scum over and over, why should I put any more effort in countering his case? If he is a townie, he should understand by now that repeating the same points over and over is not a proper case. Who says I'm worried? For all I care you can start making scum cases on me too. I just have a habit of answering accusations instead of running away or trying to sidestep them. I have nothing to be afraid of, why should I not defend myself? Do you think it would look better if I just ignored all your cases on me? Now that would make me look really towny wouldn't it? By refuting Gonzaw's case I am trying to get him to understand that he needs to step up his play as town if he wants to catch scum. Although if he's the scum, I guess that effort is all in vain. If you think I'm scummy, well, that's your problem for being on the wrong track. Maybe you'll see the light at some point. I'd respond to the case either by: A) Ignoring it if it's really that "horrible" B) Pointing out where I've actually been doing useful things or scumhunting C) Showing that I'm capable of scumhunting by actually joining relevant discussion in the thread As I just finished saying, if you think his case is so bad, why are you putting so much effort into arguing with him? It's not serving any useful purpose as compared to say, spending your time looking for scum or doing pretty much anything else. Instead, it's an excuse to shit up the thread and look like you're doing something when you're not. Also, you look pretty worried to me. For someone who's saying they're not worried, you seem to care a lot about one person's weak pressure on you. Is the whole town going after you? Are you even in danger of being lynched? It doesn't seem that way, so your posting looks like a gross over-reaction. There's nothing wrong with defending yourself from a valid case, but that's not what you're doing, or at least not what you claim you're doing. In your own words, Gonzaw's case is horrible, but you're putting in tons of effort to defend against it. If it's so terrible, you shouldn't worry at all because you shouldn't get lynched off it unless the town is very, very, bad. Also, the way you're defending against it makes you look irrationally defensive, given the way you've completely blown up over it. So, there's even more to it than the fact that you're making big defense posts in the first place; there's the fact that you've become incredibly emotional and defensive very quickly, and for almost no reason. If every person reacted the same way you did to slight pressure, the game would be completely unplayable. But, normally people don't react that way, and that's why it's a scum-tell. Finally, you don't seem to get that you have done nothing to refute Gonzaw's case. If you want to refute it, start scumhunting or commenting on the scumhunting going on in the thread. Stop being useless. p.s. Your sarcasm is cute. | ||
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Mr. Wiggles
Canada5894 Posts
"Votes will be made public after each phase. Thus at the start of round B the results of the Minority voting phase will be published, and after the lynch the " Where it just cuts off. Are the voting results of Round B revealed in public? I'd guess so after the initial wording, but if you can fix the sentence to make it explicit if that's the case, that would be nice. | ||
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Mr. Wiggles
Canada5894 Posts
If we had to choose one person to kill, I think VE would be it. All it seems like he's doing is running through the thread aggravating people and opposing any sort of organization and causing dissent on principle. He hasn't even said who he thinks scum is now that he's chimed in on Round B. His case on WBG was laughable, and besides that, I don't see any reads from him. Even when he talks about the Sandroba lynch, he doesn't say that he thinks Sandroba is scum, just that he's fine with his lynch. Also, just looking at what was posted recently, it looks like VE has given up. The lynch seemed like it would be between him and Sandroba, but instead of fighting it, he's just kicking dirt around. This is pretty uncharacteristic, and doesn't sit well with me. @VE: So if you have super good reads and have been scumhunting, and that's why scum want to kill you, what are they? Also, I see no scumhunting in the thread, so it must have happened in PM land. Obviously if you're telling the truth then, scum have them, but town doesn't. Withholding them does nothing for town, and is in fact an anti-town behaviour. Also, I thought you said you weren't playing the game in PMs, so why are you scumhunting there supposedly, and not in the thread? Or, you're just scum and I'm wasting my time. =/ | ||
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Mr. Wiggles
Canada5894 Posts
If we're only going after one person, I'd say VE. If we're going after two, then VE and probably Sandro, since he still hasn't shown up in thread with anything, and if Syllo is to be believed, hasn't started doing anything in PM land either. I haven't used my votes yet, and when I do I'll announce them in the thread. I urge everyone else to publicly announce who they intend to vote for, hopefully before they do it. There's not really a reason not to (A pro-town one at least), and this will let us keep a tally and hopefully kill who we want to kill. Just splitting randomly on who we think is townie seems pretty dangerous. | ||
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Mr. Wiggles
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Mr. Wiggles
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Mr. Wiggles
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Mr. Wiggles
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Mr. Wiggles
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Mr. Wiggles
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Mr. Wiggles
Canada5894 Posts
As for myself, I haven't decided exactly how I'll vote yet. I'd be willing to vote for a plan, but based on the results of Day 1 and the general attitude of people this game, I highly doubt it would pan out. So, if someone wants to organize something of some kind, feel free to shoot me a PM. Otherwise, I'm just going to vote however. Maybe I'll tell you I'm voting one way and vote the other just to see what would happen, if I'd be forgiven or not. :p + Show Spoiler [I've wanted an excuse to post th…] + | ||
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Mr. Wiggles
Canada5894 Posts
My current read on Cephiro is that he's bad town. Most of the things he says I see as being wrong or scummy, but he's very stubborn and how he expresses himself makes me think he actually believes what he's saying. So, this lends me to thinking that he's just bad town, because of his conviction in what he's saying. I somewhat formed this read after I argued with him a little. That's why I asked if anyone was voting him on Day 1. As for BC, I'm still waiting on him to come out with something, just like Sandroba and prplhz. Based on his complete lack of contribution before, I was leaning scum on him. He's come back now though, it seems, so I'm waiting to see what he does. I'll give a better read later on. prplhz: If you want to talk about something, why don't you answer my questions? | ||
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Mr. Wiggles
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On May 05 2012 05:51 sandroba wrote: Same goes for me. I want to kill bc but not cephiro. What are your reasons for this? Sorry for not being around much the last 24 hours, I was out shopping for my brother's grad next week, and had to stay out longer than I expected. | ||
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Mr. Wiggles
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On May 06 2012 00:19 slOosh wrote: wherebugsgo (15) Meapak_Ziphh (5), Liquid`Sheth (4), chaoser (3), prplhz (2), BloodyC0bbler (1) Foolishness (14) Katina (5), Mr. Wiggles (4), chaoser (2), EchelonTee (2), sandroba (1) Katina (10) Foolishness (5), gonzaw (3), Mr. Wiggles (1), sandroba (1) Palmar (8) syllogism (5), prplhz (3) gonzaw (7) EchelonTee (3), slOosh (3), sandroba (1) EchelonTee (7) gonzaw (2), slOosh (2), Liquid`Sheth (1), sandroba (1), wherebugsgo (1) Meapak_Ziphh (6) wherebugsgo (4), BloodyC0bbler (2) Cephiro (2) BloodyC0bbler (2) prplhz (1) sandroba (1) BloodyC0bbler (0) Nobody Do you guys think this is reflective of Meapak's alignment? Because the votes are hidden (opposed to D1 where there was a spreadsheet / VE just dumped a bunch on sandroba), scum are unsure of exactly how many votes they need to save their buddies if they are in risk of getting lynched. They have to run the gambit of if they put too much and it doesn't seem necessary it draws attention to themselves, but too little and it might not be enough to save a friend (or maybe even the opposing family scum as they want to survive town lynches). BC's two votes seem to fit that bill with Cephiro (whom I and most others think is scum) - and it looks like it could also be the case for Meapak. Are there PM's that can support either side? I don't think BC's votes say too much about either Cephiro or Meapak. Like you said, it could be that one of them (or both, though that seems unlikely) are on his team, and he wanted to save them. On the other hand, maybe that's what he wants us to think and they're really town, and so on into WIFOM Hell. I think it's better to just look at them based on their own merits and not factor in the votes. Even if they weren't on BC's team, and he is trying to incriminate them, there's nothing stopping them from being on the other team, so it's not like it clears them, and if we think they're scummy enough, we'll lynch them anyways. | ||
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Mr. Wiggles
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On May 06 2012 13:10 Liquid`Sheth wrote: I bet Syllogism died. Did you shoot him? | ||
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Mr. Wiggles
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On May 06 2012 13:23 Liquid`Sheth wrote: Did you? No, but I'm wondering why you're guessing Syllo died. I'm not sure what point there is in posting that, so maybe you were claiming vig or scum. Do you want to answer my question? | ||
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Mr. Wiggles
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On May 07 2012 01:34 syllogism wrote: Yes, I know meapak verified the story and I have seen your logs with him. You have provided no logs of your conversations with BC, unless he never replied and you randomly decided to PM him without talking to him at all about anything. It seems to me you should have PMed your #1 town read, Palmar instead if you wanted to keep that information secret so you could see how people react. | ||
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Mr. Wiggles
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On May 07 2012 11:22 Liquid`Sheth wrote: Already answered it, read a few pages back. Would you mind pointing it out for me? I don't see where you answer why you didn't PM Palmar instead of Meapak or BC anywhere. Also, all I see is one PM you sent to BC, that doesn't constitute logs. I'm asking you to reveal the correspondence you've had with BC, either that chain in it's entirety, or everything you've talked about too, if you're feeling cooperative. | ||
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Mr. Wiggles
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On May 07 2012 11:54 Liquid`Sheth wrote: Thats everything. And I PM'ed Palmar other things. Why don't you post all of your coorespondance with everyone. Sheesh this is getting ridiculous. Why doesn't everyone just post everything they've ever said in PM as you're asking me. - .-; So you only ever sent BC one PM, and that was the extent of all your communications with him? Also, I never asked you anywhere to post all your PMs with everyone, so I'm not sure why you're bringing that up. I'm also not the one in immediate danger of getting lynched and who should be trying to show they're not scum. | ||
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Mr. Wiggles
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Also, for how the KP works. I don't think that there's some third party who holds all the KP, and just think that's Cephiro trolling. Even if it's true, we'll just kill him. He'd have already shown he's anti-town with the kills, and I doubt he'd tell us who are the mafia that have contacted him, like he seemed to imply happened. My own views are that there's either a medic who's saved a likely target twice, or a bullet-proof third party who attracted shots twice, though that seems unlikely. I see the medic being a more realistic scenario considering it's likely scum would shoot into Palmar/Syllo/WBG to disrupt the town. If there isn't a medic, then I'm not sure why scum didn't shoot there, and it probably implies that one or more of them are scum. | ||
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Mr. Wiggles
Canada5894 Posts
On May 09 2012 08:23 Meapak_Ziphh wrote: Nope I assume he's afk What are your thoughts on the current proceedings Wiggles? I'm not sure what I think right now, and need to re-evaluate. If I'm still alive after the day post, I plan on going back and re-reading both yours and Chaoser's filters, among others. I think Sandroba is mafia, and most likely Cephiro is too. They both need to be killed next time they show up in the majority, unless something major happens that shows we need to act otherwise. I had few other ideas, but after thinking about them, they don't make as much sense to me anymore. There's some weird things going on, but it probably seems that way because I'm lacking a lot of information. I'll be able to make slightly better sense of it after the Day post, but I think it lies mostly in the fact that Palmar/Syllo/WBG are holding information back. | ||
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Mr. Wiggles
Canada5894 Posts
MZ, share the PMs where you and WBG came to these conclusions. | ||
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Mr. Wiggles
Canada5894 Posts
On May 10 2012 04:35 slOosh wrote: I will attest that Meapak & WBG's scum list is authentic and most likely accurate. If you want em ask Meapak, and you'll realize why WBG was so hesitant in calling Meapak scum. Are you saying that WBG also gave you this list? I can also tell you it's not completely accurate because I'm a townie. There's not even anything new here except for the inclusion of Palmar (which doesn't entirely surprise me), and a division into teams. So, what do you mean by saying you can "attest that Meapak & WBG's scum list is authentic"? I want some kind of confirmation MZ isn't making this up. That means someone else saying that WBG said the same thing to them. I want to know if WBG thought I was scum, or if MZ is just tacking his name to his own suspicions or making stuff up as scum. | ||
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Mr. Wiggles
Canada5894 Posts
Now onto your actual case. Let me start by saying that I think it's pretty bad, and you're stretching things with it. First point. The Plan: I don't want to get too into the actual merits of the plan because I don't think it will reveal anything pertinent. I'll talk about killing all the townies, mostly. You've played here for a long time, so obviously you understand how policy works, right? You come up with a rule, and then when people don't obey it, you kill them. How this normally works in practice though, is you come up with a rule, say you'll kill anyone who goes against it, and then use this as a deterrent to those behaviours. In normal games, you say, "If you lurk, a vig will kill you". People read this, and it scares them into not lurking, because they don't want to get vigged. Obviously people still lurk, and obviously they don't all get shot by vigs, but the fear of death should be enough to get people to not do those things for the most part. Saying you'll let all lurkers die isn't anti-town, letting them all die is. I hope you can understand the difference in saying you'll kill them all in the hopes of getting them not to lurk versus actually following through with it in round B and letting 8 people all die at once or something equally stupid. So, I don't see how this counts as a point against me, as there's no concrete actions behind it, only a threat. You'll notice when it actually came to voting, I gave votes to people I would consider lurkers. So strike one for your case, considering my actions contradict what you're trying to imply. Also, for how "horrifically bad" my plan was, not many people bothered trying to come up with alternatives. The most viable one was Palmar and co's, and it ended up being the same thing but we excuse certain people. Even you ignored me when I asked you to come up with something better: + Show Spoiler + To: Motbob is great [ Profile | Buddy | Report ] Subject: Re: Liar Game Date: 4/30/12 15:44 How else would you propose to vote this phase then? Everyone's quick to jump on my idea and bash it, but I haven't seen anyone suggest their own system yet. Realistically, I think this is going to end up with people voting whoever they want, which in my mind will cause just as much, if not more, chaos. By people just doing whatever they want, we get a random chance for who's in the majority or minority, as well their sizes. I don't like the idea of scum being able to make themselves safe, because I'm calling it now, anyone who gets into the minority is instantly going to have any suspicion on them dissipate, as they can't be lynched. This gives them a whole cycle before anyone can even think of lynching them, and I think it's going to make actually killing scum with the lynch a whole lot harder, since people will give up their cases, and pressure will instantly disappear. Original Message From Motbob is great: ugh yeah, I didn't realize they were gonna nuke the thread, I just wanted to observe the carnage . Ahh well, at least I've been immortalized in a screen shot lolol. Thankfully his excellency motbob let me make a smurf haha. Anyway, I guess I'll be blunt. I really don't like your idea of having everyone advance to the next round. It really makes a lot of chaos and imo would create a really easy situation for scum to influence the vote. Hide nested quote - Original Message From Mr. Wiggles: How's it going? I see you got temped in the ABL To which I received no reply. Second point. Questions and Playing Safe: People have brought up this same stuff against me in the last few games I've played. For someone who's brought up meta in your PM with WBG, you sure haven't done a good job researching it. I'm typically indecisive, and I like to play very conservatively. Asking questions are also typical because that's how I like to discuss with people and try to get information out of them. For examples of this, and for people calling me out for it, go read Death Factory 2, and JubJub (PM game). In both of them, I was essentially vanilla, just like this game. Here's my filters: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=324050&user=99050¤tpage=All http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=316574&user=99050¤tpage=All JubJub's also a good game to read, because we got into the same situation of having "easy" lynches, and I just sort of kicked around while waiting to clear out the scum, similar to this game. I ended up getting called scum for it, but like that game I don't see the point in bringing up every suspicion in thread when you have other people to clear out first. We've mostly focused on killing one person per cycle, so saying, "Hey, here's the whole scum team", isn't going to do much when we're not going to kill them all at the same time. Making big lists of reads is bad play, and that's essentially what that is. There's also no guarantee you can even kill the person if they don't show up in round B in this game, and I can change my mind or reform my read freely if I don't prematurely make a case or set the person off. Yes, I appear wishy-washy, because I am wishy-washy. I change my mind a lot, and I don't like committing to things until I'm sure of them. I always leave room for hypotheticals, and I'm not one of those people who run around raving about the "confirmed" scum or town who haven't flipped yet. If you want proof of this, I can bring up examples from previous games. So, I'm not evading things or avoiding taking concrete stands, it's simply an after-effect of not having my position on things set in stone and being flexible and open to changing my opinion. For an example in your last point, where I say “should something major happen.”, I mean if say, Sandroba comes in and claims to be a medic before he's lynched, and that he saved someone on Night 1, and that person comes in and confirms that he received a PM saying he was saved from a hit on Night 1, then I'd be forced to re-evaluate my read. That's something major. Third point. Your Case and Motivations: All in all, you seem to either be misunderstanding what I'm saying, or trying to twist my posts to fit your ideas. You also already have the idea that I'm scum when you go through my posts, so this post is mostly for the benefit of everyone else. I can tell this is the case by how you go about making your case. One thing you seem to like doing, is ascribing how I could accomplish scummy actions in the future from what I've written. So, what I've written isn't necessarily scummy by itself, but it could be, based on if I did something later. That doesn't make for a very compelling case, and shows that you're already convinced that I'm scum and need to think of reasons for why my posting is scummy. Nearly any post could be given a scummy motive based on possible future posting, so I hope everyone reading your case disregards all the stuff about how I'm setting myself up in a scummy way, since it really doesn't apply until I do it. Sloosh, can you tell my why exactly WBG was hesitant in calling MZ scum? I'd like to know if I have a reason to think MZ is just wrong, or if I need to consider that he could be scum, too. I'm also voting "Yes" again. Do what you want with that. | ||
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Mr. Wiggles
Canada5894 Posts
On May 10 2012 07:39 gonzaw wrote: So wbg didn't really give you the "magic pattern" thing that supposedly makes Palmar scum? Okay Meapak, do you have another analysis of Palmar's play that isn't just "his reads are basically mine"? Remember, you put sandroba, Wiggles and Palmar as the same scum team. I don't see much mention of sandroba on Palmar's filter, much less of Wiggles. What exactly do you think contradicts this? Also I agree, Wiggles is scum (cba to make a case, I already posted thoughts and shit on PMs, but Meapak's case sums it up nicely). What I found very odd about Wiggles is how he went full throttle against Cephiro on D1/N1 I think, even calling him scummy and his behaviour idiotic and stuff, but then he goes and says he doesn't want him lynched, and then even ignores him and just says he thinks he's "bad town" and never mentions him again. I didn't like how Cephiro was acting and thought it was scummy, so I decided to put some more pressure on him. After making a few posts and reading his responses, I thought he was bad town and decided to leave him alone. Even if I didn't like his play, that's a town read, so I didn't want to kill him yet and said so in thread. With time though, my read changed, and now I'm back to thinking he's scum. It's documented in these PMs as well. + Show Spoiler + Original Message From Foolishness: The whole VE case has my mind in a tizzy. His behavior is so trollish I can't tell if he just doesn't care or if he's trying to make us think he doesn't care so we will spare him. I was talking with him in PMs at the beginning of day 1 but we haven't chatted in a while. We mainly just talked about simple start of game things (what should our plan be? blah blah) same things we talked about, just less detail since you know how he is this game. In terms of contribution to the town there is no argument that he has done next to nothing. Nor is there any sign that he is going to change that. I find it interesting he seems to think that there is a role that revives people. For some reason he reminds me of Kurumi this game. However dangerous it might be worthwhile to try to get two people killed today. I'd still advocate sandroba, but there doesn't seem to be anyone who thinks Radfield should be saved either. As I said in my thread post I could be convinced to kill Radfield. EchelonTee is strangely inactive and as soon as he gets called out he comes in with a big analysis. This isn't how he played as mafia in JubJub though and I thought he was town at the beginning of the game when he was posting. Yeah I still don't know what to make of chaoser. He hasn't responded back to me. Does he have an agenda? Or was that PM sent in desperate frustration? I can see it going both ways. Cephiro I think is dumb townie for now. I'm certainly not going to put any votes on him unless the town has a collective plan where I need to do so. It seems like a few others are going to vote for him anyways. Original Message From Mr. Wiggles: The voting thing was a joke. I think VE's a good lynch, but I'm not sure about Sandroba. If I had to pick a second person to lynch, it would be him, but I'd like to see some more out of him now that he's in the thread. A lot of the case against him so far seems to be "he doesn't care", but that doesn't really say much about his alignment in my opinion, just that he doesn't care. It' uncharacteristic of him, sure, but I've gotten that same line thrown at me in games as town where I was more inactive like Death Factory 2 and JubJub mafia. So, I'd like to see something more substantial from him now that he looks, or at least claims, that he'll be active again. If we had to choose one person to kill, I think VE would be it. All it seems like he's doing is running through the thread aggravating people and opposing any sort of organization and causing dissent on principle. He hasn't even said who he thinks scum is now that he's chimed in on Round B. His case on WBG was laughable, and besides that, I don't see any reads from him. Even when he talks about the Sandroba lynch, he doesn't say that he thinks Sandroba is scum, just that he's fine with his lynch. I tried PMing with me, and all he asked was if I was PMing anyone else, and then he just dropped the conversation. As for the chaoser thing, that looks somewhat weird to me. He asks you to pressure her in thread, but he doesn't do so himself? The closest I can see is he says he wanted to push her lynch, but it's still weird he asks you to pressure her, and then does nothing himself. There's obviously nothing stopping him form pressuring her, so why does he need you? It's not like he said, "Let's both pressure her together!", he just said that he wants you to. The thing about Cephiro, is that he acted extremely strongly to weak pressure and became super defensive. So, I wanted to try to put a bit more pressure on him. Right now, I think he's just dumb more than scum though, and I want to ignore him. That's dangerous though, because I did the same thing with Acrofales in Death Factory 2, where I just wrote him off as a stupid townie, and then it turned out he was scum. So I guess I have to keep reading what he says. What are your thoughts on the lynch right now? Original Message From Foolishness: Oh when I mean "I'm certainly not going to vote the way he told me to" I mean that what he said wasn't a factor. I realized I did vote NO which is what he said I should but that's not why I voted NO. I'm actually a bit concerned. With the exception of you all my town reads are in the minority. Problematic since there's at least 2 scum in the minority and I'm scratching my head at who they might be. But I'm just ramblin' I don't know what to think about chaoser anymore. From his thread posts I was starting to second guess myself about him. A few people are willing to kill him but not as many as I expected. I think it's better to turn our attention elsewhere. Preliminarily (by that I mean I haven't done concrete analysis yet) I say we kill sandroba/VE. Though chaoser did send me a strange PM right before day was half up I believe: Original Message From chaoser: Hey, I was wondering what you thought of katina? can you pressure him a bit for me? This is the first thing he's sent me in PM (I've never sent him anything). I thought it was a peculiar thing to send me especially since I was the first one to attack him. I'm not quite sure what his goal was when he sent it, and that bothers me. Also wondering why he chose me out of all people. Though I did give him the bad news in that Katina is one of my strong town reads thus far. At least she seems like she understand the game from her one post about mafia splitting 2-1, and that's a lot more than most people this game. I skimmed through all the posts/arguments about Cephiro. Honestly I don't see what all the hubbub is about there. Really looks like you gonzaw and him are just arguing over nothing; but I'll take a closer look tomorrow. As I said I'd say let's go for VE and sandroba. Original Message From Mr. Wiggles: Hey, what happened to this? The problem is is that it is very easy for mafia to just be like, "omg this plan is stupid for blah blah blah reasons". Anyone supporting it I feel is a reason to think they are town (e.g. Sheth). Truthfully I don't think any of us expected that we would go through with it or anything. At least I'm certainly not going to vote the way he told me to =P What are your thoughts on the lynch? Do you want Chaoser to die? What do you think of Cephiro? + Show Spoiler + From: Foolishness [ 2007 posts | Profile | Buddy | Report ] Subject: Re: Liar Game Date: 5/5/12 10:14 Leave it as an accusation. I unfortunately got really busy with life today. Very bad day for me overall. Original Message From Mr. Wiggles: So are you going to make a case against BC or Cephiro, or are you just going to leave it at an accusation? Hide nested quote - Original Message From Foolishness: More as in I trust the people who have scum reads on him. I'm a bit iffy on Cephiro, but he is a big distraction to the town. The majority of people I trust to be town all want to kill him. I would much rather kill BC and I'm trying to push for that with people, but ultimately when push comes to shove we need to agree on a lynch in order to get the votes to work out correctly. I'm not going to cause chaos by advocating he's town (though I wouldn't say I strongly think that now anyways) if the rest of the player base wants him dead. That will just mess up the votes. Original Message From Mr. Wiggles: So you've changed your read on Cephiro now? Why's that? + Show Spoiler + From: wherebugsgo [ 5529 posts | Profile | Buddy | Report ] Subject: Re: Liar Game Date: 5/5/12 06:43 I've had pretty much the same reads as you all game. When Cephiro and gonzaw were attacking each other I mostly ignored both of them because it seemed at first like two townies attacking each other. However, gonzaw approached me in PMs and was cooperative while cephiro was very recluse. In addition Cephiro said a few key things that made me really think he was scum. Also, he decided to vote VE I believe after VE gave votes to sandro, which was essentially like abstaining. All VE was doing was being loud and disruptive, and by supporting him it seemed that Cephiro wanted disruption. That was not at all what he did in DFM2 and I've never seen him encourage that type of play as town. That's what made me decide to stop ignoring him + gonzaw. BC has been very reticent in PMs and in thread; generally regardless of his actual alignment he's usually like this, which makes him harder to read. However, if you've noticed, instead of ever calling anyone scum or doing any scumhunting he's constantly shifting suspicion onto Palmar/syllo. In addition, he's trying to make people responsible for the VE lynch as if he knew VE was town when he was completely fine with killing VE himself. It's blatantly contradictory with his earlier behavior; if he were town he would have at least made some sort of comment to the effect that VE played badly or whatever. Foolishness has also been rather reserved in PMs, but for the most part he's been transparent about reads. The one thing I can't shake is that he keeps going back to the basic assumption that scum would 100% always do a 2/1 split in the A phase and I can't figure out why. I don't think he's scum for now though; if both cephiro and BC flip town then we'll have to seriously consider it at that point. Basically I say this because everyone in the minority phase from yesterday minus BC seemed like town to me. If you can talk to chaoser a bit, would you? He's one of those players that suspects palmar/syllo for no particular reason and he's pushing that agenda pretty heavily in PMs. I'm leaning scum on him but it's so hard to read him. His style has changed quite a bit since PYP:I and I can't figure out whether he's just being dense and stubborn or actually scum. His reads aren't making sense to me, and so that makes me think he's scum, but I'd love an objectivish opinion if that's possible. Same goes for sloosh; I had a leaning scum read on Radfield but the replacement wiped it clean. Sloosh said he'd be around with scumreads but I don't believe that ever happened. I also think ET is town based on the amount of effort he's put in and the fact that he approached me in PMs with his frustrations with the game. Unless he's faked that attitude well I don't think he's scum. In addition his posts match well to those he made in LI and not the ones in SOAF or JubJub or SS Mafia. He's been open with reads, which has also been nice. Original Message From Mr. Wiggles: I haven't voted yet, and when I do, I'll claim in thread. At first I thought Cephiro was scum. Then I thought he was just completely dumb and stubborn town. Now, there seems to be a lot of people calling him scum, so I'm not as sure of my read anymore. Something concerning is how he still hasn't done any scumhunting like he's said he would since Day 1 when me and gonzaw argued with him. I'm starting to swing back to thinking he's scum, since his act is starting to get pretty thin. I don't think a townie would really run around screaming at everyone this far into the game while giving us nothing useful. It's getting to the point where if he is town, I'm going to avoid playing with him, since it's just unpleasant to play with someone like that. BC I'm not sure on. Maybe you could help me. What does he always say? Is it that when he's scum he's an asshole? Or am I thinking of it oppositely? Basically, I asked him on Day 1 when he came back what his plan was. He said that it was to avoid talking about plans (which he didn't do). He also said he wants to spend his time scumhunting and finding viable lynch targets with good reasons, which it doesn't really look like he's doing either. If he wants to push foolishness or katina as lynch targets, I don't really get why he doesn't make an actual case on them. All he's doing now is yelling about how they're wrong or how they're attacking him makes them scum. He's bringing up some stuff against them, but it's always in response to the people accusing him, and it's not in a way that it seems like he actually wants to accomplish something. Also, I was talking to Foolishness, and he kept pushing that he thinks BC is scum. I asked him if he's actually going to post a case for it in the thread, and I'm waiting for a reply still. It seems weird that Foolishness hasn't actually made any public analysis yet, especially if he's trying to get BC killed. He also told me he thought Cephiro was dumb town, and then said he wants to lynch him today. I asked him if his read changed, and why, and he says that he trusts the people who have scum reads on him, and that he's really a bit iffy but doesn't want to screw up the voting. It struck me as a little odd, which makes me more hesitant on the BC lynch. I probably shouldn't be, though, since even if Foolishness were scum, his read on BC could be correct still. I don't have a great read on Chaoser. He's blending into the background a lot since Day 1. He might be more active in PMs, but I haven't been talking to him at all, so I don't know. Sloosh is also blending in a lot since he's been incredibly inactive. I don't think he's even posted any original thoughts in the thread since he's joined. I don't think he's someone I'd want around late-game unless he steps it up. ET I have a somewhat town-read on. I think the best way to see if he's scum is to keep talking to him and make sure he gives his own reads. In JubJub, he PMed me, and didn't give me anything. He always asked questions, but never responded in kind. I didn't figure it out until the end though, when he made some bullshit case against me, but by then it was too late and nobody believed me. So, he should just get pressured in thread or in PM to give reads with reasons, and we should be able to figure out if he's scum or not based on that. Just pressure him to be active and contribute, and if he doesn't he's probably scum. Like I said though, right now I'm leaning town based on his posting and a couple PMs with him. Sheth I'm going to pressure a bit in PMs. I was leaning town on him, but now he seems really hesitant, so I want to figure out why. For example, he makes a post saying he's surprised that people think BC is scum, which implies he has a town read on him. Then syllo asks him what he thinks of Cephiro's defense of BC, and he says he needs to read BC's filter since he hasn't read him that much. Then he says "Ok after reading through BC's filter I like him", which implies he wasn't sure before, because of the "after". So, why'd he make a post saying he has a town read on BC, and then 10 minutes later say he needs to read BC filter to get a read on him? It seems weird. What are your thoughts on all these players? Hide nested quote - Original Message From wherebugsgo: Yeah sorry I'm getting bombarded by PMs by basically everyone. Anyway it'd be nice if you claimed your votes; as long as they're not on Cephiro/BC I think they're fine. You agree with Cephiro/BC dying today? What reads do you have on chaoser/Sheth/sloosh/ET? Original Message From Mr. Wiggles: Hey, so what are your thoughts like right now? We kind of stopped talking for some reason, and it looks like you're hanging out in PM land a lot, so what's up? On May 10 2012 07:52 gonzaw wrote: @Wiggles: Could you link us to games where you've been scum? Also: Wait, you say you'll just sheep wbg's read then? You are even worse than prphlz. Why do you need wbg's words for there to be a reason for you to think MZ is scum? Can't you read his filter or PM him to find out? Where did I say that I'm just going to sheep WBG's read? I asked if there's a reason for thinking Meapak is town. Sloosh is implying that there was something that happened in secret/PM land that gave WBG a reason for thinking Meapak is town. It's either something with role, and his actions would show he's town, or it's something he said that made WBG think he's town. I'd like to see what it is to see if I draw the same conclusion as WBG or not, as I obviously don't know about it yet. I also don't see why it can't be put in the thread. Thanks for putting words in my mouth and ascribing motives to me, though. | ||
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Mr. Wiggles
Canada5894 Posts
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Mr. Wiggles
Canada5894 Posts
I don't think we can multi-lynch effectively right now. We have people who are supposed to get lynched as soon as they hit the majority, so they can screw with a multi-lynch without any fear, essentially. Also, we're at the point where we can't unnecessarily kill any townies, or we lose control of the lynch more than we already have. It's getting to the point where scum will have to shoot the other scum team, or they'll risk losing in a king-maker scenario where town gets to pick who wins, which I'm sure would be unsatisfactory, or to pure numbers of the other team if too much KP hits the town or town mislynches too many at once and gets their numbers wiped out. So, they should keep that in mind when they send in kills tonight. | ||
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Mr. Wiggles
Canada5894 Posts
On May 10 2012 23:17 prplhz wrote: I'm thinking that the only feasible lynches today are chaoser and Mr. Wiggles. If you lynch me you lose, since I have a 100% chance of flipping town. What do you think of Palmar? | ||
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Mr. Wiggles
Canada5894 Posts
On May 11 2012 01:36 slOosh wrote: 1st - who the heck is companion cube? 2nd Mr. Wiggles is fearmongering. Its 6 town, 3 scum and 2 scum. He proposes that we kill Palmar but still hasn't provided any case / reasoning at all. At all. He is considered a serious lynch candidate but is still using his time to ask other's for their opinions rather than convincing people that Palmar is scum. And the last line - looks seriously like scum team suggesting something to the other scum team. Why would town make a suggestion for scum team and think they would listen? Town agenda conflicts with scum agenda. Most likely scum teams aligning agenda temporarily. Also betrays some understanding of the KP system. It was 1 shot D1, D2 and 2 shots D3. Straight up he assumes 2KP again. I'm not fear mongering at all. If it gets to the point of something like 3 town, 3 scum, 2 scum, do you really think town will win? At best we'll get to be a kingmaker for which scum team wins. We can't mislynch anymore. That's a fact. If that scares you, well good, because it should. You shouldn't even be considering a mislynch as a viable option at this point as town. If you are, you're just not thinking about it. I'm going to tell you why Palmar is scum, but I highly doubt it will have any impact on the game. I can tell your little circle has already closed their minds off to discussion, because I made a response to Meapak's case, telling you why it was both wrong and bad. After that, there has been zero, 0!, response to what I said. No discussion at all. That tells me that you guys are just deciding what you want to do in private and are not interested in trying to actually discuss things or potentially changing your opinion. You're just going to do whatever you set your mind on already, and the town is going to lose. Palmar is scum, because of the way the game has played out, and his general attitude and play through it. To see this, ask, "What has Palmar accomplished throughout the game?". On day 1, he came out strongly with his plan, after he managed to gain Syllogism's trust. His plan though, put all of the power into his own hands. People opposed this, and the plan didn't end up being changed or modified, it just got dropped on subsequent days. Since then, Palmar has been riding the position of authority that being in the WBG/Syllo/Palmar trio had given him, but hasn't been doing much else. It was syllogism who was very active in the thread, and doing the most public scumhunting, and it was WBG who was organizing all the voting in order to get things done. So, WBG and Syllo were organizing the town and making sure that we actually acoomplished what we set out to do, but how did Palmar fit into this? From my perspective, he didn't. He gained Syllo's trust enough on Day 1 for him to get a town read on him, and has just been riding that for the rest of the game. Of the three, it looks like he was the one who was doing the least, or from my perspective, nothing at all. As well, I know that at least WBG was suspicious of Palmar last night, if not Syllo as well. WBG revealed this to me, here: + Show Spoiler + From: wherebugsgo [ 5534 posts | Profile | Buddy | Report ] Subject: Re: Liar Game Date: 5/9/12 11:31 yeah syllo and I have been a bit unsure on Palmar given that he hasn't done very much all game. But it's hard to fit him with any actual scumteam. I suppose we'll have to wait and see but yes, out of the minority group on d1 I'd say palmar fits the bill more than most to be scum. Original Message From Mr. Wiggles: Ok, that makes more sense, then. What do you think of Palmar? Personally, if only one between you three were scum, I'd probably say it were him, unless he's doing a lot more in private than I know of. It seems like Syllo got an initial town read on him, and now he hasn't been doing as much? Does that sound right? I'm pretty sure you're town, and like Syllo more than Palmar. Hide nested quote - Original Message From wherebugsgo: I would've certainly hit foolishness too if I were scum. I was closer to him than I was to syllo/Palmar anyway (and fairly more sure of him being town up to him not responding for a good 24ish hours) Anyway I think he was probably shot because he's Foolishness and he scares scum. He was also making quite a bit of sense as usual. He was also universally considered town (think about it; the only person who dared call him scum publicly while he was alive was BC) for a very long time. As my read (and syllo's) on him in private was changing it didn't affect the shot, which boded well in a certain way. Original Message From Mr. Wiggles: Ok, thanks. I was wondering if prplhz made a medic save or something on N1 and claimed it, because all I knew is it was out of the thread. I find it harder to figure out what's happening, because I have no clue how the KP works, and at least the N2 kill doesn't make much sense compared to what I think I would do as scum. Why do you think Foolishness was hit, instead of someone in the group of You/Syllo/Palmar? Original Message From wherebugsgo: Hmm, I thought I answered it. W/e, here it is anyway: For prplhz: I've sheeped syllo's read and accepted that in order for him to be scum at least one of those players needs to flip town first. Syllo thinks prpl is town based on how he acted when it came to his votes d1; he asked about where to put them and did so according to syllo's instructions despite not even understanding the rules fully. Syllo thinks that in such a situation he would simply ask his team how to vote and whom. I tend to agree, though I am less convinced than he is. I don't think prplhz is an issue until we reach such a juncture where he basically has to be scum. As for sloosh, I am still suspicious of him and for me those suspicions never disappeared. If you noticed, I didn't put a vote on him yesterday (I put 2 on syllo or something like that, don't recall now) he still hasnt come forth with any sort of case in thread and his responses to me in PMs for that still do not seem to impress me. He's not been proactive at all when it comes to the game, not something I'd expect from him as town. He used the excuse "it's my first PM game, idk what to do" Original Message From Mr. Wiggles: I asked: "Can you tell me why prplhz is considered "confirmed" town by syllo, or why all suspicion of sloosh seemed to disappear overnight?" I'm curious about that, since thinking or knowing they're town reduces the pool of players to look at. Original Message From wherebugsgo: Sorry, which PM? I had a town read based on comparing his filter to what I've seen in LI and several games where he's rolled scum. He also has put plenty of effort forward in PMs (particularly d2) with me in terms of talking out scumreads and whatnot. As he is decently open in PMs (he's PMed me to start with, for example) and as just recently in PMs he wasn't comfortable PMing as scum I think for now it's safe to call him town. The other problem I have though right now is: until chaoser/Cephiro/sandro die and flip it's hard to know what to do exactly or who to look at specifically. It's unfortunate, but we are heldup still by that I think. Original Message From Mr. Wiggles: Hey, are you going to answer my PM? Also, what do you think of EchelonTee? It seems like most of what he's doing is coming in after most people have decided on who to lynch and making a big unnecessary "case" on them. After the third time, it's looking like an empty contribution to me. Thoughts? So, last night's hits make a lot of sense in this framework. One, or both, of WBG and Syllo were beginning to question Palmar, and they either brought it up to him himself, or leaked it to someone on his scum team. As well, people were really questioning why no shots went into their trio, which implied that there was scum influence there. So, he decided to shoot whoever was coming on more strongly, and to make it look better for him. Unfortunately, someone else shot the other one, so it revealed him pretty brusquely. Also note how since Meapak "took over", he hasn't been trying to even live at all. He's probably just hoping that you'll kill myself or Chaoser, and he gets another try at getting into the minority. He's clammed up, because he doesn't want to give you any extra information, just like Sandroba's been since Day 1. As town, do you really think he would let someone else become ringmaster of "his" circus? Look at how he acted on Day 1 where he put up a facade of wanting to be the town leader, and how he responded to people who questioned his authority. Now contrast that to how he's acting now. Why do you think he's just taking Meapak taking control over him lying down? It's because he's scum. Next, your logic is flawed if you really believe it, because why would scum make a suggestion to scum and think they would listen? Their agendas conflict even more at this point. Also, as scum, why in the hell would I be asking the other scum team to shoot at me? Are you serious? That's a temporary alignment? I don't even think you're reading what I'm posting, or you're just being incredibly dense about it, or you're just scum and don't care about looking stupid. I'm telling scum that the best plan for scum right now is to stop aiming at the town. This helps the town, but it also helps the scum, especially the one with only two people which gives them incentive to do it. If I were a scum player, I think it would be pretty shitty to have the game decided by some terrible leftover townies put into a kingmaker position, especially if you have Cephiro on your team, because I don't think town would choose to let him win if they had the choice after how he's acted. As the numbers get smaller, the influence of each player and their votes becomes correspondingly larger. There's three (or more) parties, so kingmaker situations are possible, and the way this is going, probable. As well, if too much stray KP hits town, or scum keep trying for the mislynches, then it could be that one team gets enough of a numbers advantage they just win. The best thing for scum is to reduce numbers while keeping the ratios in their favour. Just eliminating all the town means one of them loses based on numbers. Letting it go into a 3 way numbers tie means town gets to pick who they want to win. So, they need to get rid of, or at least whittle down, the opposing scum team. It's their best option right now. If they think about the possible end-game scenarios, they should come to the same conclusion, it's simple math. Also, how do you get that I have extra knowledge about the KP from my post? If you've actually been reading what I've been writing, then you'll know that I've always assumed two KP with some sort of medic intervention, or vets, or a BP third party. It's right here in the thread. You've just revealed yourself as scum grasping for additional ways to get people to lynch me, or you're just not reading the thread at all. On May 11 2012 01:54 slOosh wrote: I think a better question, is "Why is Mr. Wiggles scum?". No one seems to be keen on discussing this, and meapak's case is incorrect and not very good. Why is Mr. Wiggles town? | ||
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On May 11 2012 04:00 gonzaw wrote: Wiggles, how do you come from: 1)Being neutral about the lynch, and just asking some things about Meapak To: 2)Wishy washy stance on Palmar Then to: 3)Being fully convinced Palmar is scum and making a huge case against him? Why is it that only now, when you are in danger of dying, that you actually make a case and take a strong stance on someone? It didn't take you too long to convince yourself that Palmar is scum and make a case against him, so why couldn't you do it before? First, I didn't make posts about the lynch, because we didn't have the majority yet. There's no point in making a case on Palmar if he's not going to be able to get lynched. The post you linked to, is my first post after the majority is revealed, where I could actually choose someone who's able to be lynched. So, I'm not being neutral about the lynch, I'm just waiting to know who I can lynch. If you actually read my last post, I was suspicious of Palmar last night phase already, so it isn't like this is new. Next, how is saying "I feel best about him being scum at this point." and that we should kill him a wishy-washy stance? It seems like basic reading comprehension, but please tell me how you think saying that is "wishy-washy"? "I feel best about" means that he's my strongest scum-read for lynch candidates, and saying we should kill him, means exactly that. So, there's no leap between saying that and my last post, unless you're not paying any attention to what's going on. That post says I think Palmar is scum and I want to lynch him, and my last post gives my reasons. On day 1, I wanted to lynch VE, I did so. On Day 2, I wanted to lynch BC, and did so, and on Day 3 I wanted to kill Sheth, and did so as well. I'm not sure how helping kill who I want dead is not taking a strong stance. My votes make my stance clear, and I also show it in thread for Day 1 and 3, if not as much on Day 2 because I didn't post a lot then while I was busy. The rest of it's in PMs if you need me to dig them up. Multi-lynches haven't worked, so why am I going to bring up cases on people when they aren't the ones I want to lynch yet? You call me out for not making a case on earlier days, but I didn't want to lynch someone else on earlier days, so there was no point in trying to make a push for it. Instead of asking why I didn't, why don't you explain why I should have? I'm making a case now, because I want Palmar to die, and need to get more people behind it. There are no other cases, except for on me, and people all saying Chaoser is scum without a case. So, if I want something to happen, I need to get support because it isn't there yet, and I need to do it myself, because nobody else seems to want to. If you can't see that I'm town, or at least that Palmar is scum, you're blind and we're going to lose. This is directed to whichever townies are actually left and still reading. | ||
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On May 11 2012 05:09 prplhz wrote: We kinda need to agree on something here. I'm planning on trying to keep Palmar alive so you're going to have a problem if you want to kill him. Why do you want to keep Palmar alive? There's no mention of him in your filter, so where did this come from? On May 11 2012 05:06 EchelonTee wrote: Wiggles, your opinion on chaoser? Palmar, your opinion on Wiggles? I'm not seeing it as strongly as everyone else is and think Palmar is a better lynch, and that's why I'd like it if someone bothered writing up a case on him who thinks he's scum. When I say there's no case, I don't mean that there's no reason to think he's scum, I literally mean there's no case that I can read to see why you think he's scum. If there's something I missed or forgot about that wasn't just from Day 1 or early Day 2, bring it up again so I can see it. That he hasn't been around recently, I don't like though, because it means that he's not talking now. Maybe he's just lying low to try to avoid the lynch? On May 11 2012 05:18 EchelonTee wrote: My final is in 3 hours. I can't spend any more time in thread and will be back ~1 hour before deadline. No matter what, chaoser needs to die today; we can't afford a mislynch. Why does Chaoser need to die as opposed to Palmar? What's your reasoning? | ||
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No one's really talking about much, so I'm going to bring up what I wrote about Palmar again, since no one talked about it the first time: Palmar is scum, because of the way the game has played out, and his general attitude and play through it. To see this, ask, "What has Palmar accomplished throughout the game?". On day 1, he came out strongly with his plan, after he managed to gain Syllogism's trust. His plan though, put all of the power into his own hands. People opposed this, and the plan didn't end up being changed or modified, it just got dropped on subsequent days. Since then, Palmar has been riding the position of authority that being in the WBG/Syllo/Palmar trio had given him, but hasn't been doing much else. It was syllogism who was very active in the thread, and doing the most public scumhunting, and it was WBG who was organizing all the voting in order to get things done. So, WBG and Syllo were organizing the town and making sure that we actually acoomplished what we set out to do, but how did Palmar fit into this? From my perspective, he didn't. He gained Syllo's trust enough on Day 1 for him to get a town read on him, and has just been riding that for the rest of the game. Of the three, it looks like he was the one who was doing the least, or from my perspective, nothing at all. As well, I know that at least WBG was suspicious of Palmar last night, if not Syllo as well. WBG revealed this to me, here: + Show Spoiler + From: wherebugsgo [ 5534 posts | Profile | Buddy | Report ] Subject: Re: Liar Game Date: 5/9/12 11:31 yeah syllo and I have been a bit unsure on Palmar given that he hasn't done very much all game. But it's hard to fit him with any actual scumteam. I suppose we'll have to wait and see but yes, out of the minority group on d1 I'd say palmar fits the bill more than most to be scum. Original Message From Mr. Wiggles: Ok, that makes more sense, then. What do you think of Palmar? Personally, if only one between you three were scum, I'd probably say it were him, unless he's doing a lot more in private than I know of. It seems like Syllo got an initial town read on him, and now he hasn't been doing as much? Does that sound right? I'm pretty sure you're town, and like Syllo more than Palmar. Hide nested quote - Original Message From wherebugsgo: I would've certainly hit foolishness too if I were scum. I was closer to him than I was to syllo/Palmar anyway (and fairly more sure of him being town up to him not responding for a good 24ish hours) Anyway I think he was probably shot because he's Foolishness and he scares scum. He was also making quite a bit of sense as usual. He was also universally considered town (think about it; the only person who dared call him scum publicly while he was alive was BC) for a very long time. As my read (and syllo's) on him in private was changing it didn't affect the shot, which boded well in a certain way. Original Message From Mr. Wiggles: Ok, thanks. I was wondering if prplhz made a medic save or something on N1 and claimed it, because all I knew is it was out of the thread. I find it harder to figure out what's happening, because I have no clue how the KP works, and at least the N2 kill doesn't make much sense compared to what I think I would do as scum. Why do you think Foolishness was hit, instead of someone in the group of You/Syllo/Palmar? Original Message From wherebugsgo: Hmm, I thought I answered it. W/e, here it is anyway: For prplhz: I've sheeped syllo's read and accepted that in order for him to be scum at least one of those players needs to flip town first. Syllo thinks prpl is town based on how he acted when it came to his votes d1; he asked about where to put them and did so according to syllo's instructions despite not even understanding the rules fully. Syllo thinks that in such a situation he would simply ask his team how to vote and whom. I tend to agree, though I am less convinced than he is. I don't think prplhz is an issue until we reach such a juncture where he basically has to be scum. As for sloosh, I am still suspicious of him and for me those suspicions never disappeared. If you noticed, I didn't put a vote on him yesterday (I put 2 on syllo or something like that, don't recall now) he still hasnt come forth with any sort of case in thread and his responses to me in PMs for that still do not seem to impress me. He's not been proactive at all when it comes to the game, not something I'd expect from him as town. He used the excuse "it's my first PM game, idk what to do" Original Message From Mr. Wiggles: I asked: "Can you tell me why prplhz is considered "confirmed" town by syllo, or why all suspicion of sloosh seemed to disappear overnight?" I'm curious about that, since thinking or knowing they're town reduces the pool of players to look at. Original Message From wherebugsgo: Sorry, which PM? I had a town read based on comparing his filter to what I've seen in LI and several games where he's rolled scum. He also has put plenty of effort forward in PMs (particularly d2) with me in terms of talking out scumreads and whatnot. As he is decently open in PMs (he's PMed me to start with, for example) and as just recently in PMs he wasn't comfortable PMing as scum I think for now it's safe to call him town. The other problem I have though right now is: until chaoser/Cephiro/sandro die and flip it's hard to know what to do exactly or who to look at specifically. It's unfortunate, but we are heldup still by that I think. Original Message From Mr. Wiggles: Hey, are you going to answer my PM? Also, what do you think of EchelonTee? It seems like most of what he's doing is coming in after most people have decided on who to lynch and making a big unnecessary "case" on them. After the third time, it's looking like an empty contribution to me. Thoughts? So, last night's hits make a lot of sense in this framework. One, or both, of WBG and Syllo were beginning to question Palmar, and they either brought it up to him himself, or leaked it to someone on his scum team. As well, people were really questioning why no shots went into their trio, which implied that there was scum influence there. So, he decided to shoot whoever was coming on more strongly, and to make it look better for him. Unfortunately, someone else shot the other one, so it revealed him pretty brusquely. Also note how since Meapak "took over", he hasn't been trying to even live at all. He's probably just hoping that you'll kill myself or Chaoser, and he gets another try at getting into the minority. He's clammed up, because he doesn't want to give you any extra information, just like Sandroba's been since Day 1. As town, do you really think he would let someone else become ringmaster of "his" circus? Look at how he acted on Day 1 where he put up a facade of wanting to be the town leader, and how he responded to people who questioned his authority. Now contrast that to how he's acting now. Why do you think he's just taking Meapak taking control over him lying down? It's because he's scum. Also, to put another nail in the Sandroba coffin, vote analysis says that he's on BC/Chaoser's team as well. Player | Day 1 | Day 2 | Day 3 | Day 4 | He votes in a block with Chaoser against BC until BC dies, and then he switches to voting against Chaoser. He's the only living player who votes this way. I'm probably going to vote yes again. | ||
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On May 13 2012 07:11 EchelonTee wrote: Oh, my bad, thought you were talking about Palmar in that instance. I agree that Sandroba looks very much so like their teammate. Wiggles, what do you think of Cephiro? I think he's scum right now. What do you think of Palmar? | ||
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Palmar is scum. I'm trying to still figure out who else is on his team. | ||
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On May 16 2012 04:07 chaoser wrote: ![[image loading]](http://gifsoup.com/webroot/animatedgifs7/2802026_o.gif) ![[image loading]](http://i.imgur.com/soDmU.jpg) So is no one going to tell me about this round A plan you've made up, or have you just abandoned it? I'd also like to know if you actually followed any round A plans on the previous two or so days, since WBG/Syllo died, and what they were and if you followed through on them. Who was involved in the discussion? Did people want to vote certain ways? I'd be happy if you shared it. | ||
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On May 17 2012 14:54 gonzaw wrote: You know people, you are allowed to talk and shit. Post your thoughts on the Palmar flip and our "plan" please. We may try something similar in a next day, or maybe we won't. Scum will just have to WIFOM about it every time we post a plan, and try to follow it and have the chance we'll fuck them secretly, or just out themselves by voting to save each other when they weren't actually in danger of dying. Of course, all of that after we kill sandroba, that's for real this time (if we try to do another "secret" plan he'll fuck it up again, so no way we are letting him live any longer) The palmar flip wasn't surprising at all. After syllo/WBG flipped, it was painfully obvious he was scum. I don't think your plan was very good. Sure, we killed Palmar finally, but there was absolutely no discussion on prplhz in the thread. I didn't have a strong feeling that he was scum, and if you had actually bothered to make a case in the thread, I would have said so. I don't like that you're ready to flip people based on your own suspicions and with no discussion, as it can very easily lose us the game if you're wrong. Why'd you keep your suspicions of prplhz out of the thread? | ||
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+ Show Spoiler + ![[image loading]](http://i.imgur.com/OxPqx.png) First, vote analysis says that Sloosh is more likely to be town, unless Scum decided to triple vote on day 4 or 6, which seems kind've ballsy for them that late in the game. So, that implies that on Day 2, Mafia did a triple vote of "No", because the only choices for voting "Yes" against Palmar are me (a townie), and Sloosh (who the voting suggests isn't scum) on that day. Of the people left who voted "No" on Day 2, I'm going to pull out MZ, since I have a decent town read on him. Of the people left (Gonzaw, ET, Katina), I think Katina is most likely to be scum. It also makes the most sense from the perspective of the triple "No" vote on Day 2, due to Katina pushing in the thread on Day 1 or 2 that scum would never triple vote because it's too risky. However, if this is actually the thought that's in the thread, then it makes a lot of sense to triple vote early on, because it will throw off voting analysis. Obviously the hypothesis that scum will never triple vote is false, since after taking myself out of the people who voted, it's impossible to avoid a triple vote. Either one happened day 2, or one happened later on with Sloosh. So, to me, it makes the most sense that it happened early, on Day 2 in this case, and that's also the day with the highest difference between the two groups besides Day 6, but no one has yet bothered to tell me if you were following a voting plan as a group then or not. Here's a couple of quotes I found of Katina pushing a 2-1 vote as the only viable scum move. + Show Spoiler [Katina talking about a 2-1 split] + On May 01 2012 08:00 Katina wrote: The mafia team will always be voting in the 2 to 1 method. However since there are two teams its a matter of figuring out where the two mafia are voting. On any given day each majority/minority will have either 2, 3 or 4 members. So for each faction, we need to figure out whether they have 1 or 2 members in the majority. Since mafia needs to save their allies they will always get at least some votes. So by comparing who is voting for who over the course of a few days it should give us some information. Furthermore it's unlikely that the same 2 Mafia members will be voting together every day most likely they will cycle through X and Y, X and Z, Y and Z, etc. As Ace said, this is a lot simplier than people make it out to be. <3 On May 01 2012 08:20 Katina wrote: There's no reason for Mafia to take that chance. You really think they can decieve people in PM's like that? Have you been deceived in PMs like that? People are flipping coins to decide votes, and I doubt anyone is actually listening to Palmar. Three votes for the same option is to obviously, especially so early where people are extra paranoid. They would try to leave a little of a connection as possible to each other. With that said, there is no reason mafia would take that chance. Thus we can always expect the 2-1 split. Then it's just a matter of looking at who is voting for whom and matching people up. In addition, Katina hasn't really done much this whole game. She's tunneled Palmar for a while, but that's pretty much it. The thing about that, though, is she never made a hard push to get him lynched. She kept repeating that he was scum over and over, but that's not going to convince anyone to actually lynch someone unless they're just being dumb. Also, since she started on Day 1 or 2, by the time it realistically gets to a point where people would lynch Palmar, no one's going to take her seriously because anything she says can be written off as just tunneling. So, though she called Palmar scum, it didn't seem like it was meant to actually accomplish something. In addition, it seems like she's been riding the fact Foolishness called her town pretty hard. A lot of people seem hesitant to call her scum because Foolishness had a town read on her, similar to how people acted because Syllo called Palmar town. From the starting point of Katina being on Palmar's team, that leaves us with ET and Gonzaw. ET fits into the voting pattern by only having the triple vote on Day 2. However, Gonzaw would only fit if scum triple voted on 3 separate days, which I find unlikely. So, that suggests that ET is the last scum with Katina. I've had some reservations about him, but I never thought he was scum so strongly I'd make a case. So, I'd rather flip Katina first and then see how that turns out before going more in-depth on ET, since the read on him is partially a continuation of the voting analysis under the assumption Katina is scum. In conclusion, looking at the voting suggests to me that Katina and ET are the remaining scum on Palmar's team. This was built on the assumptions that scum will avoid a triple vote later into the game, and never attempt multiple triple votes. If those are incorrect assumptions to make, then players like Sloosh, Gonzaw, and maybe even MZ need to be reconsidered. Posting behaviour also suggests that Katina is scum in this framework. Before proceeding with ET though, Katina should be flipped, or potentially Katina along with Sloosh, though one would very likely flip town and it would be a 1 for 1 trade. I haven't done the math for player numbers for this yet though, so this could be a terrible suggestion if we can't afford to make that trade anymore. | ||
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On May 21 2012 15:32 gonzaw wrote: Why would you ask me that question, and what does this have to do with the plan? You know, you can comment on it as well. You also seem to completely ignore sandro's flip and its repercussions. I remember you saying that ET and someone else would both be Harimoto, ONLY because of voting patterns. However I also remember you thinking sandro was Yokoya, so surely your reads would change by now, considering you ONLY used voting patterns to determine them, right? But well, I think you are scum Wiggles, so it doesn't matter actually matter what you vote. Although please vote NO to follow the plan so we can end the game earlier. For people that still ask me "Why do you think ET is town? bla bla bla bla". ET was part of our plans since Day 4 and has been in the loop ever since. He knew about every plan since then. He knew the plans when chaoser was lynched, the plans when Palmar got lynched and the one where sandroba got lynched. He never tried to stop those, so unless you say he just bussed all his teammates since Day 4 to win solo or something he's town. He is clear with his reads ever since the game started as well, and if you want to take meta into account, he seems to care about the game and is not acting to his scum meta at all (for instance, check SoaF). Now that we are over that, if any of you want to seriously consider MZ or ET as scum, then make a convincing case other than "oh he voted opposite sandroba/chaoser one day". If not, then you should have no qualms over following this plan. Even if you still think MZ/ET is scum, then still follow the plan and we'll deal with that once we get to D9. Why wouldn't I ask, and how is it not related to the plan, when he's one of the people you want to bring to the last three? You obviously think both of him and MZ are town, so if you don't win doing this plan, then you'll have to start to actually think about why you think they're town. Honestly, your circle you've had going on has doesn't exactly have the best record. If you don't count Palmar, you're 1 for 3, out of prplhz, Cephiro, and Chaoser. If you count Palmar, even though your circle originally defended him as town, then you're still only 2 for 4. Add me in when I flip town, and it's even worse. So, to say I don't exactly trust you to make a sound judgement in an endgame scenario is putting it lightly. Even now, you can't figure out anything, and just want to flip everyone at the same time. So, it would be nice if actually explained any of your reads when I ask, instead of going off on some stupid rant because you think you're the towniest town to ever town, when town is only even close to winning since it seems like the scum ran out of fucking bullets. I'm not claiming to have all the answers, but I'm not the one trying to make decisions for the whole town without giving any reasoning. So, if you want me to follow your plan, give me your reasons for wanting to flip the people you want to flip, instead of being a dick about it. Also, I never said people would be something ONLY because of voting patterns. Do you even read what I write? I thought Sandroba was on BC's team based on voting patterns, that was wrong though, so it doesn't matter. That wasn't the basis for my read though. I said Katina was scum, using voting patterns as a basis, but it's also supported by how she's acting, which I wrote. I haven't changed that read. The last scum is one of Sloosh/ET, probably, so that's why I'm asking why you think ET is town. | ||
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