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On May 04 2012 15:49 paschl wrote:
fwiw, and i know this is my ego talking but i cant stop it, ive played >50 mafia games over the last 2 years. thats not counting turbos.
i just signed up for the newbie game because my regular forum is down and since i have played <3 games on TL i thought id see how different the games here are to what im used to.
and im not sure how much help the analysis you did will bring us.
the most important thing for the mafia is killing blue roles.
killing someone just for what they said about you on day 1 is a really, really, exceptionally bad play.
especially since nobody had been peeked at the time.
Some evidence is always better than no evidence. Here's an analogy for ya.
You have a multiple choice test in front of you. There are four choices and you're petty much stumped. You realize one answer is obviously incorrect
Do you:
a) Make an educated guess by choosing between the other three choices at random?
or
b) Not attempt to answer the question?
I'd say a) is the obvious answer. That's essentially what I've done here for you. I've narrowed down the list of suspects so that the likelihood of hitting mafia rises. It's the best I can do for now. Unless you have any better ideas, I suggest we go with this.
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On May 04 2012 16:16 paschl wrote:
im trying to say that the mafia shouldnt just kill him because of what he said. and they probably didnt.
he was a clear-ish player that made good posts. this singlehandedly is more of a reason to kill him than any of his posts alone.
I agree with your general sentiment. However, I don't agree with your conclusion(See bold). I think mafia should willing to take the risk of killing someone who actively suspects them, especially if said person wasn't particularly active but was decidedly pro-town. Furthermore, I don't believe that risk to be a bad move for the mafia to take. It's a risk that has a great payoff in the long run because they'll have one less person scrutinizing their play later on.
They are insured of their action because of WIFOM. Your theory that they just killed a good player regardless of his posts is perfectly plausible due to WIFOM, but we shouldn't rule out the possibility that the mafia went for their biggest threat because we think it would be a bad move for them to make.
It's hard for me to explain myself with so little sleep on hand. I'm going to get some shut-eye, so I'll be back later. Hopefully we can draw some info out of Ace and Ange today.
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On May 04 2012 16:58 dahdum wrote:
I would think they'd take a chance and try to hit one of 3 blue claims, but Demorcef as a target isn't too surprising. His posts made sense and he didn't stir up confusion.
Firm, your check on Matriarch confirms her as an inactive townie, I don't understand the reasoning to check her over the rest of us, she's not contributing at the same level and if she was scum, we'd learn nothing about anyone else. Regardless, we now have a confirmed innocent.
I don't know what to think on the Gummy/Claw v/v theory, seems unlikely to me but one *has* to be the medic. So even if the other is 100% scum, I don't think it's worthwhile to lynch on a 50% chance when the medic can continue to heal Firm.
It's late here so I'll reread in the morning for more analysis.
1) Possibility of framer on Gummy/Clawtrocity is relatively high.
2) Everyone else seemed relatively innocuous, but Matriarch seemed a bit passive/aggressive with a few lurking tendencies.
3) She was at the top of my list of suspects after reading Day 1. Aces was a close second, so I had a hard time deciding. I almost wish I had chosen Aces, but we'll see how things go.
Okay, NOW I'm going to sleep! ^_^
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On May 03 2012 07:44 Gummy wrote:
YOU WILL BE IN THE SAME SITUATION TOMORROW AS YOU WILL BE IN TODAY WITH ONE FEWER TOWNIE.
On May 03 2012 07:15 Gummy wrote:
@Demorcef. Your logic behind your No Lynch is flatly wrong. Rethink your logic and vote Clawtrocity please. Matriarch and Dahdum. Change your vote to me or claw now or your votes are equivalent to No Lynch. If you are a townie, and you apparently believe in LAL, just pick somebody. Your votes are complete cop-outs at this point.
![[image loading]](http://i0.kym-cdn.com/photos/images/newsfeed/000/200/420/BRTky.jpg?1321408042)
The Next Day...
On May 05 2012 01:20 Gummy wrote:
##Unvote: Clawtrocity
##Vote: No Lynch
![[image loading]](http://25.media.tumblr.com/tumblr_m39hgjpVBp1qe4uyao2_1280.jpg)
Oh, I get it. He's Mitt Romney.
![[image loading]](http://thedailysatire.com/mittromneyprofile.jpg)
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On May 05 2012 07:23 Mementoss wrote:
Don't spam memes/pictures, especially huge ones, they have there time and place, not three at a time.
Alright, got it. I rather enjoyed making it though :D
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On May 05 2012 12:56 dahdum wrote:
Would another no-lynch day be in our interest? According to Paschl we have 1 more no-lynch day, but we're likely to lose another town (unless medic risks not healing FirmTofu). If we believe there is a framer, the detection is suspect, but I assume we'd go through with a lynch on odds alone.
I'm fairly confident that Ange777 is scum after reading her reply to my accusations. Considering we don't have any other info to go on other than everything we had on day 1, I say we proceed with this lynch.
#vote: Ange777
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oh sorry
##:vote: Ange777
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I hate myself...
##vote: Ange777
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I don't know what's wrong with you people. I already explained to all of you that Gummy is a lunatic with fail logic that assumes everyone will play optimally.
After Night 1, we all saw that his prediction of optimal play did not work(None of the claimed people were attacked), yet you all follow him like a bunch of sheep. Apparently, I can't even get a few hours of sleep before you all bandwagon Clawtrocity with no legitimate reasoning or backing whatsoever.
Gummy is clearly scum at this point or is simply not playing to win. Gummy may sound smart, but he is manipulating you all with a clear objective to confuse and derail discussion. Everything he said showcased his single-minded illogical tunnel-visioning and it's sad that you all fell for it.
For the record, I was never trolling, I was pointing out the blatant hypocrisy of Gummy in a humorous fashion.
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Unfortunately, if we are to assume Gummy lied about his medic role, that means we have another medic in play. This is mind-boggling to me.
How would a medic react when a grand total of 2 other people claim medic? Why wouldn't they reveal their role? Wouldn't they want either Clawtrocity or Gummy dead?
I must think on this further. As for the rest of you, stop voting people randomly. Thanks.
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I think mafia has this game in the bag. Gummy is obviously scum, but their final member is so well hidden that they are willing to sacrifice Gummy to ensure the death of a few vital roles.
I need to medic hidden and on me for the remainer of the game. Our survival depends on the medic staying hidden. The longer he does, the better chances we have of winning the game going forward.
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##Vote:Gummy
Gummy returned as mafia. Thank god.
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I'd just like to shed some light on what Gummy did.
It all started when Claw claimed medic and I claimed Detective right afterwards. Gummy did not want to attack into either of the two roles because the risk of a heal going through was too great. He saw my plan's potential and had to figure out some way to discredit it(and me) before it could come to fruition.
Here's the critical part. He saw a hole in my logic and by extension in Claw's logic that he could exploit IF AND ONLY IF he could convince everyone that the mafia were going to play optimally. He used his game theory calculations as a veil to cover up the fact that he was basing everything on this primary underlying assumption--Mafia would act in their best possible interest.
But would mafia really always act in their best possible interest, or would they be swayed by emotions and what they perceive the actions of others to be? Is this a numbers game, as Gummy asserts, or it is more psychological?
I'll be the first to admit it. Gummy's logic wasn't fabricated. The problem was the underlying assumption. The assumption that should not have been assumed because the mafia:
1) May know anything about game theory (Information deficiency)
2) Could be Gummy himself, which he failed to acknowledge as a possibility.
3) May choose their actions based upon suboptimal play because of WIFOM. If Gummy can predict optimal play, then supoptimal play BECOMES optimal, does it not? No mafia wants their night actions predicted by a town member, and if they are forced to play suboptimally to circumvent that, they that suboptimal play becomes optimal because it turns into the best course of action.
So why did Gummy claim medic?
A short-sighted plan for a new guy who thinks he knows everything there is to know about mafia. He wanted to prove to everyone on this site that he was a force to be reckoned with and his deceptive skills in the art of persuasion were top-notch. A pretentious douchebag? Perhaps. I wouldn't go that far. I'd say he was looking to prove himself and made a critical blunder that overlooked basic logic in favor of making a spectacle of himself.
For all his knowledge of game theory, he couldn't run run a simple cost-benefit analysis to predict the repercussions of his actions.
What should have gone through Gummy's brain on Day 1:
+ Show Spoiler +If I claim medic and get Claw lynched...
what will people think of me?
He will either flip vanilla townie or medic and both of those flips would make me look bad. If he flips vanilla townie, I might be able to get out of a lynch, but if he flips medic, I'm screwed.
How sure am I that this guy is a medic? Is he worth a lynch if he isn't?
But what's the point? Either way I end up looking bad for no real gains for my team! Yeah, I might be able to get a medic lynched, but that would be at the cost of my own life!
Conclusion: I should NOT claim medic and try to get Clawtrocity lynched.
Remember that flip-flop thing he did on Day 1? That was your scum tell. I initially didn't believe it because I thought it was too obvious, and Gummy seemed like an intelligent guy, but that was my mistake.
I thought Gummy was town only because I assumed that he was logical enough not to make such a serious blunder. Claiming medic as mafia on Day is poor play by any standards because it invites your eventual death.
Hopefully the last mafia can keep this game interesting, but we are definitely far ahead at this point. We've only lost 3 vanillas in exchange for half of the mafia team. The medic is still safely hidden so if he survives one more night without me dying, we be able to safely investigate the rest of the town and clinch victory.
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EDIT:1) The mafia may not know anything about game theory(information deficiency)
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Aces is the last mafia and Gummy is already dead by now.
Votes on Gummy(Need 4 to lynch):
paschl
FirmTofu
Ange777
dahdum
GG.
I didn't even read his counter-arguments because they are all Gummy flailing at town hoping to appeal to emotion.
For the record, Claw's fallacies were quite on target this game. It's a shame you all killed him instead of Gummy.
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Ah, sigh. It was a coinflip. I bet against the possibility of framer because I saw a high probability chance that I would lynch Gummy if an innocent popped up had I checked someone else.
Honestly, I didn't believe Gummy was mafia until I got a guilty on him. Then, I forced myself to rationalize the check and convince everyone else to vote for him.
Like everyone was saying, you can't rely on the detective all the time, we've gotta be scumhunting too. Gummy threw me off completely and I never really recovered even though I had Ange high on my scum list day 2.
Any tips for me to improve?
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EPT
