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Kohbee I agree with you that if you are not scum, then the people who switched their votes off of you after your last-minute claim should be considered probably town. They could have just kept their votes on you and then claimed afk after your lynch.
However we need to remember that people who were not already voting for you aren't cleared. Switching a vote to you after a blue claim would be an obvious scum tell when the claim turns out to be true. It would be much safer just to let you live and roleblock or shoot you.
So where does that get us? If you are town, then four face would be clean. However he's the only one who actually switche off of you. Hiropro and marvellosity also helped save you, so I suppose hiropro is also town, since he could have kept his vote on solohan and allowed you to die. However, marvellosity had to take an action. Therefore he could not have said he was afk for your claim and lynch. Therefore, if you claimed, were lynched, and flipped blue, marvellosity would have been the obvious next target - not worth it for him if he's mafia, when they can just roleblock you. So, if you are town then the scum would be two out of me, marvellosity, omnom, solohan, and kb. Since it's not me, then we have a group of four out of whom 2 are mafia; however, you obviously have no reason to believe I'm town, so call it 2/5.
However! This whole analysis is only valid if you are town. You could also be scum - a distinct possibility in my opinion. Next post will have that analysis. Sorry if I get ninja'd, I'm typing this on an iPhone.
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nope... just awesome or stupid.
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On April 02 2012 22:56 Kohbee wrote:
nope... just awesome or stupid.
More like herp or derp
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Can we please wait for the night to develop before we get deeper into analysis here? If there is a medic or jailkeeper, they will probably know what to do by now. When we have the additional information of who did or did not get nightkilled this may well be quite a bit easier to understand.
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On April 02 2012 22:55 strongandbig wrote:
Kohbee I agree with you that if you are not scum, then the people who switched their votes off of you after your last-minute claim should be considered probably town. They could have just kept their votes on you and then claimed afk after your lynch.
However we need to remember that people who were not already voting for you aren't cleared. Switching a vote to you after a blue claim would be an obvious scum tell when the claim turns out to be true. It would be much safer just to let you live and roleblock or shoot you.
So where does that get us? If you are town, then four face would be clean. However he's the only one who actually switche off of you. Hiropro and marvellosity also helped save you, so I suppose hiropro is also town, since he could have kept his vote on solohan and allowed you to die. However, marvellosity had to take an action. Therefore he could not have said he was afk for your claim and lynch. Therefore, if you claimed, were lynched, and flipped blue, marvellosity would have been the obvious next target - not worth it for him if he's mafia, when they can just roleblock you. So, if you are town then the scum would be two out of me, marvellosity, omnom, solohan, and kb. Since it's not me, then we have a group of four out of whom 2 are mafia; however, you obviously have no reason to believe I'm town, so call it 2/5.
However! This whole analysis is only valid if you are town. You could also be scum - a distinct possibility in my opinion. Next post will have that analysis. Sorry if I get ninja'd, I'm typing this on an iPhone.
For not being stupid you can get lynched 2nd. unless omnomnom posts more dumb shit and jumps ahead of you in line. (very possible)
k? k.
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This post is going to be a bit shorter, since there's less analysis to do IMO. If Kohbee is scum, then we know for sure that I'm not scum and solohan isn't scum. I pushed the lynch on Kohbee all day, and solohan voted for Kohbee when no one else was except therapist, and thus revived the Kohbee lynch as a realistic possibility.
This would mean if Kohbee is scum, the other scum would have to be one out of fourface, omnom, marvel, kb, and hiropro. Not very helpful IMO.
So all in all what do we have? No one absolutely confirmed town or scum, just relying on reads.
I'll post some of my current reads later today before the night actions happen, but right now I have to go to class.
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On April 02 2012 23:07 strongandbig wrote:
If Kohbee is scum, then we know for sure that I'm not scum and solohan isn't scum. I pushed the lynch on Kohbee all day
That is 100% true as I said. You&strongandbig impossible scumpair. You could both be town or either one of you could be scum, but not both. It's good that you confirm this
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United Kingdom36161 Posts
On April 02 2012 23:00 KharadBanar wrote:
Can we please wait for the night to develop before we get deeper into analysis here? If there is a medic or jailkeeper, they will probably know what to do by now. When we have the additional information of who did or did not get nightkilled this may well be quite a bit easier to understand.
The problem is there are so many possibilities.
1) A random townie gets killed. This could mean Kohbee is scum and they just decided to off someone. It could also mean that Kohbee is not scum, and mafia assumed that as town has a 2/3 chance of having a doc or jailer, they would just kill someone else and roleblock Kohbee.
2) Kohbee gets killed. This is clearest case as then of course Kohbee is not scum. It also PROBABLY (but not definitely) means we don't have a doc/jailkeeper as they'd likely protect Kohbee.
3) No-one gets killed. This could mean Mafia tried to hit Kohbee but he was protected. It could also mean Kohbee is mafia and mafia decided to hit no-one to make Kohbee less suspicious (that doesn't seem like a great outcome for mafia, not getting a kill).
Actually now I've listed some options, information will be gleaned one way or another. Worryingly it seems 1) is the best mafia play, because it doesn't tell us much about who is mafia at all.
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On April 02 2012 23:15 marvellosity wrote:Show nested quote +On April 02 2012 23:00 KharadBanar wrote:
Can we please wait for the night to develop before we get deeper into analysis here? If there is a medic or jailkeeper, they will probably know what to do by now. When we have the additional information of who did or did not get nightkilled this may well be quite a bit easier to understand. The problem is there are so many possibilities. 1) A random townie gets killed. This could mean Kohbee is scum and they just decided to off someone. It could also mean that Kohbee is not scum, and mafia assumed that as town has a 2/3 chance of having a doc or jailer, they would just kill someone else and roleblock Kohbee. 2) Kohbee gets killed. This is clearest case as then of course Kohbee is not scum. It also PROBABLY (but not definitely) means we don't have a doc/jailkeeper as they'd likely protect Kohbee. 3) No-one gets killed. This could mean Mafia tried to hit Kohbee but he was protected. It could also mean Kohbee is mafia and mafia decided to hit no-one to make Kohbee less suspicious (that doesn't seem like a great outcome for mafia, not getting a kill). Actually now I've listed some options, information will be gleaned one way or another. Worryingly it seems 1) is the best mafia play, because it doesn't tell us much about who is mafia at all.
You are correct in your thought process however it is all WIFOM.
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"WIFOM is arguably the most misapplied term in the Mafia lexicon, and for years the standard approach to has been to throw out any ambiguous evidence. This is not optimal, as WIFOM situations are generally not purely random. However, WIFOM arises precisely because someone is difficult to read, and the possibility of being wrong is inherent in making a choice.
Many times analyzing night kills is considered WIFOM, as only the killers can say with certainty why someone died. This is especially true when the kill choices were unexpected. At present, NK analysis is considered simply another possibly-reliable piece of evidence, neither useless nor authoritative. "
I could be wrong but by guess it's only WIFOM if you discuss past events.
We are addressing possible developments and once again, predicting possibilities. And once again you are not helping one bit. At least stop quoting that chunk if you plan on saying only a sentence.
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EBWOP: did I just statter? LOL
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On April 02 2012 23:30 FourFace wrote:
"WIFOM is arguably the most misapplied term in the Mafia lexicon, and for years the standard approach to has been to throw out any ambiguous evidence. This is not optimal, as WIFOM situations are generally not purely random. However, WIFOM arises precisely because someone is difficult to read, and the possibility of being wrong is inherent in making a choice.
Many times analyzing night kills is considered WIFOM, as only the killers can say with certainty why someone died. This is especially true when the kill choices were unexpected. At present, NK analysis is considered simply another possibly-reliable piece of evidence, neither useless nor authoritative. "
I could be wrong but by guess it's only WIFOM if you discuss past events.
We are addressing possible developments and once again, predicting possibilities. And once again you are not helping one bit. At least stop quoting that chunk if you plan on saying only a sentence.
if i don't die it says nothing about my alignment. I could either be left alone so that I can be mislynched or I am scum (to everyone else as I know this is not the case)
If I do die it points fingers directly at solohan strong, and omnomnom. Scum could do this because they are town and can get mislynches out of them. However they could also believe that you would think that, and be hiding behind the argument of "why would we kill Kohbee if it points fingers at us."
This is why night kills are WIFOM in terms of determining alignment
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EBWOP: when i say they in the 2nd paragraph i am refering to solohan, strong and omnom.
It should read more like
If I do die it points fingers directly at solohan strong, and omnomnom. Scum could do this because solo, strong and omnom are town and can get mislynches out of them. However Scum could also believe that you would think that, and then solohan, strong and omnom can hide behind the argument of "why would we kill Kohbee if it points fingers at us."
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hhahahaa good one. Confirmed town. Just kidding. Why are you not trying to go into detail as to what happened minutes prior to the lynch. I think there's more there that we can discuss, don't you?
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On April 02 2012 23:53 FourFace wrote:
hhahahaa good one. Confirmed town. Just kidding. Why are you not trying to go into detail as to what happened minutes prior to the lynch. I think there's more there that we can discuss, don't you?
i did dive deep into that time period. I haven't seen anything new or relevant said since
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It's because you should explain it before anyone else does. Don't worry it's not boring at all.. it's what everyone is talking about.
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On April 02 2012 23:55 FourFace wrote:
It's because you should explain it before anyone else does. Don't worry it's not boring at all.. it's what everyone is talking about.
I already explained what happened. Townies got me off the hook and scum tried to lynch me
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So be it. Hey everyone, leave Kohbee alone. Let's find something else to talk about. This interrogation is over. Sleep tight Kohbee
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EPT
