Surprisingly Normal Mini Mafia IX
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On March 21 2012 00:47 Nova_Terra wrote: /in Ah so we meet again | ||
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On March 21 2012 01:39 sc2system wrote: /in First Time take it easy on me <3 Welcome to TL mafia, as long as you put some effort into reading the thread and posting, and vote every day cycle. Nobody will hate you AFKer's ruin newbie games. | ||
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On March 22 2012 15:06 Gossemerr wrote: Three hours is not cause for alarm at the start of the game ha. Lets get this rolling. ##Vote: Mementoss Only because you outplayed us so hard last game. Prove you are town this time! Lol no posts and you scurrred already. I cannot prove that I am town as its like half a day into the game lol. Here is the best I can do I am TOWN. I will further prove that I am town when I push a scum lynch day 2. For now im going to talk about the lynch today, basically my thoughts are anything but no lynch. This is my third game, and I have a new opinion about day 1 than before, check my meta if you would like. Im just letting you know so you don't say OMG he has different thoughts than before hes auto-mafia. I think its all fine and dandy to throw around accusations first day and put pressure on posters/lurkers, but at the end of day 1 its too hard to get a decent case off. (Eg, SNMMVIII - FirmTofu case based one 1 post) Therefore, I say we lynch a lurker/useless poster day 1, unless we have a significant scum slip. Why is this beneifical to us the town, even though there is a good chance it will be a townie? 1) Helps narrow down the field for scum hunting later 2) Keeps the active ratio higher for discussion 3) Attempts to keep replacements out of the game, which are always difficult to read and deal with as one persons scum meta =/= the other persons. That all being said, if this is your first game please make a good effort to read the thread, and not only respond to current situations/discussions. But come up with your own cases based on filter, and not gut feeling or OMGUS. The main reason I won as mafia last game is because out mafia team contained a good 50% of the active discussion, and could sway the town opinion with well thought out cases about innocent people. Or other people would do it for us and we could just agree with it or post an alternative case so the focus was kept on those two. We as the town have the number advantage if we are all active, this is advantage useless otherwise. This being said. No one is confirmed town until the flip green. Obviously if someone pushes a case for a scum lynch or two, they are most likely not bussing 2/3 of their team away. Since no one is confirmed town, pressure eventually needs to be applied to everyone at some point in the game. Last game as mafia I never had 1 case on me or 1 FoS or 1 Vote. Lets make this the first SNMM town win since SNMM I! GL HF ~ Let the scum hunting begin. | ||
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Mafia Terms ^^Not all are used here on TL, but can be used as a reference for some common ones, OMGUS, WIFOM, FoS, EBWOP | ||
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Rise of Fenix: On March 22 2012 14:14 Rise Of Fenix wrote: well, you posting first probably eludes you being mafia and drawing unneeded attention to yourself. That is not to say that this could be a fake out, but I am inclined to believe you are town. Who else would like to speak up? Confusing and weird way to say things. Trying to confirm town on one post? Really? If mafia knew posting first could confirm town they would be all over it. Could be a cover up for a fellow scum. Attempts to be pro-town by promoting activity. On March 23 2012 05:24 Rise Of Fenix wrote: Day one lynching is always a solid plan to move foreward, but no real tells are showing thus far. I will likely post my thoughts about 1 hour before the deadline. But not lynching anyone only benefits the scum. This is about the scummiest thing you could ever say. Im going to post my opinion when it's already too late to influence a lynch! At least I can say I had one, so people don't think i'm scum. Also, obviously there are no tells when everyone has 2 posts. On March 23 2012 07:27 Rise Of Fenix wrote: What I said was not that I wouldnt post until the End, I meant i wouldnt vote until the end. I feel that gossamer wouldnt post this much if he was scum Michaelthe has just said to get the inactives. Meh, could be either. Serivo pointed out that I said something stupid, and talked about the time. I say innocent Nova has talked about the time and how I said something stupid. Also innocent I think Artanis asked for my opinion. I am giving it to him. The scummiest person right now in my opinion is michaelthe, as he seems anxious to lynch someone who hasn't really said anything yet. However, I will keep my lynch for later. Still, not voting till the end is perfect for mafia, it shows you are not thinking for yourself. Your basing your vote off of what other people do, band wagoning, trying to blend in. Scum, scum scum. Everyone that pointed out you said something stupid, innocent? Great reasoning. Lists like this are useless, just a post or 2 ago you said you had no solid reads right now , and none of these are backed up by posts, just a half sentence reasoning. Why did you pick these random selection of people and not everyone? Especially if your not gunna back it up with anything. Everyone you said is town have the most quality in there posts. You trying to get in good with them so they don't put a case against you? Goss voted for you, and you didn't even respond to it... You just ignored it despite posting 6 times afterwards. On March 23 2012 07:35 Rise Of Fenix wrote: I prefer not to vote now because I think that until everyone has given their opinion, everyone else deserves equal suspicion. I prefer not to vote now or ever iniate a vote for that matter, because I don't want people to have suspicion of me, or to get on any ones bad side. It is much easier to stay out of the spotlight if I can just agree with a good case against a townie! On March 23 2012 07:39 Rise Of Fenix wrote: Trust me, my vote would be at you, but I will give everyone the benefit of the doubt. There is no unlynch in this game right? All lynch votes are final. On March 23 2012 07:48 Rise Of Fenix wrote: Oh I didn't know that. But I still have no person picked to lynch yet. WAT. Hey dude I would totally vote you if it wasn't permanent. Wait... it isn't permanent. Well it doesn't matter cause I have nobody picked out to vote. Wishy washy contradicting shit right there. On March 23 2012 07:58 Rise Of Fenix wrote: No lynch is LITERALLY the scummiest thing to do. No lynch only helps scum. Hey guys, since your considering lynching a lurker im going to post a total of 8 times. That way I will never get lynched, right? Also to prove im town im going to add in something pro town. Even though it was pretty much established by the majority of the players in the first couple posts. Biggest points: -Spammy posts -Consistently saying he's hesitant to vote -Contradictory behaviour I dont usually do this this early. But if he didn't respond to one vote, maybe he will respond to two. ##Vote: Rise Of Fenix | ||
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I know you were just stating your opinion on the case, but I don't necessarily think that is a good thing to do right away. It allows the accused to just slide by without defending their own asses, if a couple people just stick up for them. It's more interesting/can give a lot of information to see the player defend themselves/how they do it. If you come in first they can just re-write what you said in a different way. Even if the case doesn't seem the strongest in your thoughts, if it gets discredited by people other than the accused, the accused loses all pressure, and pressure = information/scum slips. Here is the most interesting part of the case in my opinion: On March 23 2012 23:55 Artanis[Xp] wrote: Agrees with another townie to gain cred, this is a trend in Seviro's posts; rarely comes up with any own ideas and mostly agrees with other townies to 'blend in'. Also jumps on the against the 1 hour bandwagon which is fairly obvious. Long post basically stating the obvious and agreeing with other people. Note the bolded/underlined, its both because its a very big mistake. A very big scum slip. Why is it such a huge deal? Because we have no clue if Nova_Terra is town. AT ALL. Here are the possibilities: 1) He is scum, he knows peoples roles, therefore he knows Nova_Terra is town. Slipped it by mistake. 2) He is scum, Nova_Terra is scum, he is quick to give the idea to the rest that Nova is confirmed town, when there is no proof behind it. Just saying it because Nova is active. 3) He is town, bad town play, making assumptions that lead to town not exploring all the possibilities, getting tunnelled away from someone (See me as mafia SNMM VIII) Dat scum slip | ||
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There are a couple of things that have recently been posted that I want to touch on but I have to go for now, will post in probably 2-3 hours. | ||
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@Nova_Terra: Why are you so quick to defend his(Aranis) slip? >_> Your meta is so off of last game. Also didn't you bring up voting deadline or at least agree to it? Where is your vote? @Seviro: I like this point against Artanis you made, that his case using your quotes to make things look scummy out of context, but in context they actually weren't. Making a weak case just to say you made a case is scummy, but not enough to warrant a day 1 lynch IMO. Just because he actually is active and responding back to counter points. Right now I would be happy with a lynch on either of these two: Sc2System, or Rise Of Fenix RoF because of the case I made on him, and him never responding. However it seems like no one is around to defend him, or point a case away from him, which seems odd for scum. Safe lynch because his quality of post is terrible, even if he flips green. Sc2System: A lurker. Has not said anything of value. Maybe not the biggest lurker post wise, but the way he posted just seems really scummy to me. Jumps into game with a couple of posts. Then bandwagons on what looks like the majority vote for the day. He bandwagons at a time which seems to try to be non-suspicious, does not iniate the vote, and does not wait till the end to vote. | ||
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Rise of Fenix, at least attempt to defend yourself. Everyone that didn't vote yet, get your shit together vote, and get some reasoning together, have your own thoughts don't just bandwagon others. | ||
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At this rate we are heading for a no-lynch town. We really need to just come together and agree on someone. | ||
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Nova, Mementoss, Virtu is supposed to be posting, michael, sc2system(maybe) | ||
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Im still thinking sc2system/RoF personally | ||
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RoF: 4 votes Sc2System: 3 votes Not voting RoF. | ||
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I think if Seviro or Artanis comes back they will change their vote, as I don't think there current votes will get majority. | ||
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On March 24 2012 08:04 sc2system wrote: Sorry I hit F5 (refresh but I was clicked out of the window) I am so sorry =S And I am not voting to kill Rise Of Fenix even though I would do becuase his comeback is bad. But I am felling that the mafia is manipulating us and I believe that ROF is the person to kill. I believe that he is a villager so if you want to kill the a person that is lurking but is a villager (i believe) then go ahead. Becuase if we dont kill him that is only a extra person for the mafia to kill. One more thing is that if ROF is mafia it is possible that the mafia are killing one of them so they seem to not to be mafia becuase their vote killed a mafia member. I cant decide so I am voting for a no lynch. ##unvote: virtu ##vote: no lynch No Mafia would ever bus their own team mate day 1, when there is only three mafia -_- | ||
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On March 24 2012 23:11 virtu wrote: I suppose this outcome is about the same as lynching an inactive green, as he was pretty much useless as far as pro-town posting goes...my big worry is that tomorrows lynch will be on sc2system who kinda seems the same as RoF, he could very well be another genuine case of a quite inactive and weak posting townie. If this happens the town numbers will be dwindling rather quickly... Will have a good read through the D1 activity and come up with some thoughts later on today. That is true, we can't commit to any votes based on day 1 opinions we need to make some new ideas based on day 2 activity as well. Sc2system was just so shitty during the end of the voting phase, he just seemed like he was taunting everyone. | ||
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My thoughts on the Nova_Terra case vs BlueyD felt very weak and forced. I read the points and it felt like he was trying to put some scummy behaviour into posts that weren't scummy to begin with. Since when is taking leadership a scum trait, it's a very risky thing to do as scum unless you are good at it as it gives you more connections to more players and allows most posts for people to analyse. Also a couple of the posts were taken out of context of what was happening in the thread at the time, eg, I tried to force BlueyD for an initial vote, before he left. Cause the town needed votes, and vote were not happening. Also I would kinda like prelim votes to start as early as second 24 hours of the day. As at least it provokes discussion and allows plenty of time for defense/ change majority. As we all live in different time zones. Im going out tonight so I probably will not post, until tommorrow. | ||
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Here is pressure: Im going to put a strong case/analysis on you and vote/FoS you Here is not pressure: Im voting you to pressure you, but im not going for the lynch. | ||
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On March 25 2012 06:54 Artanis[Xp] wrote: sc2system has posted plenty of bad posts, I'm fairly certain he won't improve on that any time soon. He's not going to be much use to the town imo. Ninja4ever mentioned he was going to be AFK today so I'll put pressure on him tomorrow. How come you didn't mention Gossemerr? Taking leadership without solid reasoning is a scummy thing to do. You're attempting to get people to follow what you say, and you can convince people by taking a position of authority, even if not earned. Posts can be taken out of context due to the filter option which is what people will usually use to analyze one person's posts, so an advice to anyone analyzing players; make sure to read the thread alongside it so you remember what was on the minds of town at the time. I'm good with the prelim votes starting as early as possible, as long as people will be present later too to change them should things develop. Yeah that is true, but it doesn't make the play any less risky, but even so the posts he quoted had no real showing of taking leadership anyways. I missed that from ninja4ever, thanks for the correction. I mentioned the first two that came to my head, as far as I remember Gossemer posted after the night post correct? He said he had some thoughts on Nova so I'm interested in hearing those when he came back. Imo Night 1 is such an awkward night to discuss things and I find it hard figuring out what to say as you don't wanna put yourself in the spotlight. I'm still trying to figure out the most beneficial things to discuss and how to do it as town. Everything I underlined in your post is a good point and I agree with it. | ||
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On March 25 2012 07:42 Nova_Terra wrote: Mementoss, what do you mean the posts i quoted didnt show much of taking leadership? for instance, 1 - "I'd like to see everyone at least post to confirm activity. Whoever doesn't start posting is already suspicious at worst, and useless at best. We don't want any mafia hiding among the lurkers. I'll personally support lynching an inactive unless something pretty big happens. " 2 - "This means we have to start thinking about who to lynch if there's no convenient lurker." 3 - " Of course we'll modify our opinions based on night 1 and day 2, but for the moment I still think my case against sc2system remains reasonably strong, and if there were a 2nd vote right now I'm sure he would get lynched on the spot." I may be misreading the second one wrong, but even so, the fact that he has been allowed to maintain an authoritative posture without pressure isnt good. Im pretty sure everyone in the thread has said 1 and 2 at the start of the game. 1 -> Be more active, inactives dont help scum hunting. 2 -> Lynch someone with a good case, if not lynch a lurker. 3-> A response to me saying, I dont want the the town getting hung up on day 1 opinions as better information to come, EG just cause we suspected RoF and sc2system, doesnt mean we should nessecarily lynch sc2system day 2. As better cases may come up. I didn't mean for this defense to stretch out for so long and so analysed, cause if he actually ends up flipping mafia my ass will be on the line. But I just think it was a weak case and I didn't really see where you were coming from, and usually on the good cases I do, without being like erm well that is possible I guess. Felt really forced. I;m not saying he's innocent. But this case hasn't made him more scummy in my eyes, no offense. | ||
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1. The focus is off sc2system, we can actually focus on scum-hunting and hopefully get one. 2. Mafia easily coulda killed artanis, hey I never woulda expected FroggyNoddy, then vig is wasted 3. We gain information from the vig claim, that Artanis is in fact a town player if the claim is correct. Im not saying we can confirm off the claim, but its a good tidbit. I need to look into FroggyNoddys death now, probably not too much posting later in day as barcraft. | ||
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Nova_Terra: His meta is completely different. He explained that he changing the way he plays to improve his game. As vanilla town, he had long thought out posts, and pressure posts. In this game I read through his first 2 pages of filter, it 50% spam. The other 50% is dedicated to either responding to people, or asking peoples opinions on things usually leading the town in circles. Honestly, I can't even find anything to quote because its all useless. He seems to be posting in fear and holding back. He posts a case about BlueyD, but it was very forced and weak. Things were taken out of context to make them look scummy, and things that weren't scummy were meant to look scummy. Such as the leadership thing. Here is another thing that makes him seem suspicious. He totally ignored talk about the vig shot, until after it was done. He didn't want to push it cause he knew it would make him suspicious, but he didn't want to stop it because he knew sc2system was town. Maybe I should be suspicious for bringing it up, but as a mafia wouldn't that be too risky to do? I think the people we should look at are the people who ignored the topic who were active, these people being: Nova, Seviro, and BlueyD (but he was defending himself) On March 25 2012 17:10 Nova_Terra wrote: Yeah, If you are the vig artanis you should have waited. We could have had a free mafia death at some point. At least, sc2system was relatively worthless, so it should be a bit easier to go scumhunting. BlueyD, i kind of think the point of the hit on froggynoddy is in essence exactly what you said. he was off the radar, and its hard to read anything from the hit. I will go into his filter today, but i really dont expect to find much, unless its based on WIFOM. Says you shouldn't have shot, yet didn't say anything during the night when it was actually important. Also in many instances in this game he is constantly apologetic. Doesn't want to get on anyones bad side, and is just slipping by. + Show Spoiler + On March 24 2012 06:47 Nova_Terra wrote: I am so sorry, i got caught up in a game of quake. I really feel bad. Mementoss, the main thing thats changed is that i am trying hard to not let behaviors bother me and change the way i play. I took a lot of flak last time around, and while i am still trying to be active and helpful i dont want to go all out aggression because i will get too caught up like last time. even to the point of deluding myself that i was totally right. I defended artanis because i think that it was an innocent mistake, albeit a bad one. For my reasons previously stated, i am voting for Rise of Fenix. his play is not helping us at all, and i do not find artanis or anyone else (until i analyze the filters hard tomorrow morning) more suspicious. ##Vote: Rise of Fenix On March 24 2012 06:52 Nova_Terra wrote: Wow, i really messed up the time. Once again, sorry all, I promise that i will stick to it for sure next time. I will be on for another hour or so. On March 25 2012 07:23 Nova_Terra wrote: Oh, sorry. I didnt read over the thread while i wrote it and was going by filters. I did understand that he had a reason for it. I just didnt think that the reason made much sense when he had said that he would vote for RoF if he didnt contribute. As Artanis just said, I do find the manner in which he tried to take leadership to be scummy. He has been guiding the town towards a certain lynch from this position, without being forced to post much analysis, which i think is a result of having made a couple posts that seemed to be from an authoritative position. Another thing that i did not like from this is that as he is seemingly capable, he isnt posting as much content as i think he could be, like what i should have noticed about you last game mementoss. Prelim votes is OK with me, but i think that as much of the town is relatively inactive getting a clear consensus right away will be a bit challenging. I also dont want people to leave a prelim vote and forget about it until relatively late in the day because of this inactivity. Please stay active! We cant just let scum lurk this out. On March 25 2012 05:50 Nova_Terra wrote: sorry, got ninja'ed, i meant that to be for BlueyD. Overall his play is just spammy, hes not taking the town forward, his meta is completely off his vanilla. He has had one unique opinion in 3 pages of filter. He seems to be just the one asking the questions, and apologizing. Rather than analysing play and applying pressure. He is taking the town in circles. He is probably in the scum QT posting huge plans, while in here just spamming up the thread. The only reason I would think he was town, is because he defended Artanis's scum slip, and now it is shaping up for Artanis to be town. Other than that, I would be very sure this guy is scum. Maybe he just defended Artanis, to stay away from the same opinion of his scumbuddy seviro, who quickly after Artanis's case on him OMGUS'd and voted Artanis. But that is just WIFOM. ##Vote: Nova_Terra | ||
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On March 26 2012 03:54 Nova_Terra wrote: Ok. I just went over last game briefly. Starting off with, i made an apparently "bad move" by FoS'ing somebody early. Then, i got mad and frustrated, and ended up spamming defense posts and some OMGUS. At least in the pages i read, i was responding to people calling me out and playing aggressively because i was lashing out at people. After last game, i learned that i wanted to play in a more "emotionless" manner where it wouldnt screw me up and cause me to post cases and analysis that goes totally incorrect because my mind wanted to lynch them for even daring to accuse something i did to be bad or wrong. I wanted to play more like Mementoss (which is a bad example as he was scum, but still accurate) but he really did seem like a helpful townie, and he just seemed like his behavior never changed when different things happened. His posts didnt have OMGUS, or terrible cases. I wanted to do just that. And that i feel accounts for my meta. My pressure posts made me feel like i didnt actually do anything. We ended up letting a mafia through and a townie die. Yet, I dont even get how it could have helped. We pressured a townie who posted and then left, and he didnt respond and so he died. Then i received flak for switching my vote off him when i thought he was innocent later. All that this reinforced to me was that i shouldnt play the way my brain thinks. because its suspicious, etc. Enter this game. It starts in a week where i am busy to begin with with many tests, and my brain was scrambled to begin with. And i knew that i wanted to change up my play and play without this emotion crap. Because it was making me scummy. I've been trying to let people know that i agree with them in some issues here, and others there, to make myself as transparent as possible. And then every now and again, when some posts went through me, I went a little into rage mode. Immediately to shut it down, i kinda held back on analysis so i wouldnt let it influence my play, which i realize now makes no sense because by shutting down the analysis it was influencing my play.I was kinda scared about how i would come across because of how i was feeling. Strangely enough, this weekend i have had a relatively busy social schedule. Thats kind of new for me, and i realize this. Then i started missing deadlines (that i myself had made) and just not posting on time, making stupid lapses in judgement (like not reading the thread alongside filters and taking BlueyD's post out of context) as a result of me being out and about and/or playing games with friends. And i feel so bad about it, because i really didnt want to come off as suspicious but because of these little things i found that i was coming across in that manner, at least to myself, and thats why i've been apologising. Its so hard to be transparent when i was screwing up these little things, and i feel bad for making it so hard on the other townies to read me. However, i was spending some time looking over filters. I still maintain that i find the leadership thing to be scummy. I cant remember if i explained why i did in a previous post, but please ask if you want me to again. Dont want to waste space if i dont have to. Looking over the case, it definitely felt to me like it was certainly warranted and some things were suspicious, but it also felt like my case on seviro last game. I dont get why my analysis is apparently so bad, but all i know is that im trying to put tons of effort on these cases and nobodys really agreeing with it and it doesnt do anything.it feels terrible to be putting all the time and feeling into it and having it do nothing. Last night i came in after an exciting day out in the city, and finished my case, and then decided to relax for a little while and watch some MLG. yeah, i did see something about vigilante shot on sc2system, but at the time wasnt concerned about it and actually thought that it made sense as we wouldnt waste the day arguing about him (which i didnt post because people were taking flak for making posts to just agree with people), and only when i was literally falling asleep did i realize that the vigilante shot is pretty much a free kill against mafia if its used right, and didnt feel like getting up to go post to state my opinion. Not because i knew system was town or anything like that, I was just too damn tired around 1 in the morning. Which was another thing that i apologized for as i should have gotten up to do that. So, to end this defense, I want to add my reads on everybody so far. Mementoss: Leaning far town, seems very inno which scares me as thats how i was thinking last game. Seviro: leaning scum, actually. I hope to provide analysis on him tonight or tomorrow during the day. artanis: most likely to be town, at least in my eyes Virtu: Relatively null. I havent really gotten any vibes from him at all. Posts some analysis (of last games play etc) but doesnt really seem to do much with it at least in my eyes. Nova_Terra (yes i am putting myself on my own list): null. hard to read because of not posting thoughts when they seem to arise. Michaelthe: null leaning scummy. makes some posts that i find were pretty good early game, but then he just randomly drops off and doesnt post much. One thing in his favor in my eyes is how he has been playing aggressively. Gossemerr: Null leaning town. I like the aggressiveness however. Ninja4ever.:Null. not a very active player, but he does come and post his thoughts a couple times a day. I dont like his activity however. BlueyD: Null leaning scummy. I still think my points on the position he has been taking in the game are valid, and i find that he got defensive pretty dang fast. Alright lets respond to this defense. First lets start off by underlining everything Nova_Terra said about IRL, and just not read it. Why? IRL stuff has nothing to do with the game, because it can be lied about and no one would know the difference. It is not acceptable as a defense in any form. You shouldn't be scared to post as a vanilla townie. The only way scum is found is through posting your ideas. Re-read your posts from a different perspective to see how it sounds. No excuse to not be posting analysis. Stick to your guns if you think your right, correct yourself if you think you are wrong and explain why the change of thought. No apologizing needed. While you maintain your opinion on leadership, I maintain my opinion that it is bullshit. Not only is it not a good scum argument, it could scare BlueyD and other newer players away from posting, because they don't want this "leadershit" stuff to come back and haunt them. And why BlueyD? I would consider myself in that role more than him. I put out a case that lead to a townie lynch, and was the first to suggest a vigshot on another townie. Would I rathered one or both of them to flip scum? Of course. Am I pissed at myself about it? Not really. It did its job at getting rid of 2 confusing shitty players. Confirmed a townie that was leaning scum in a couple peoples eyes. And took a lot of time that woulda been wasted pushing/pressure sc2system and Artanis. Now we can continue with the game. It gained time and added information, 2 very important resources. About people not agreeing with your case and putting time into it. This game is not being able to be right and finding scum. Its about being able to convince people to agree with your opinions. No matter how much your right about finding scum, if you cant convince the rest of the town, it will not matter. Don't let this discourage you, keep getting better. About people saying its a free kill against a mafia? No it isn't. You realize how hard it would be for Artanis to survive to a point where it actually would be this situation. Hell we mighta lynched him day 2. At least it wasn't wasted in a death, and helped the town and gave information. Which is helpful at anytime. Then to end your defense you post something scummy. Ugh. This list is not helpful to me. If your posting with purpose and concisely. You should be able to know someones read on everyone just by reading their filter. The list basically says who you think is scum and half a sentence explanation. Would it not make more sense to just post a post based on the explanation? This doesn't pressure the players, it doesn't generate discussion and is easy way for mafia to "contribute" while he can just put a townie label on his mafia friends and scum on the popular choices. Im not retracting my vote on you at the moment. Let the discussion continue. I want to see some opinions. We have a relatively good chance of killing a scum today, and it would be huge to do so. | ||
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On March 26 2012 10:20 Seviro wrote: Hey Mementoss, I'd like to hear your opinion on what have been said since your last post and if you feel like Nova's response to your accusation was satisfying. What are your thoughts on Nova/his defense? | ||
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If we lynch Seviro and Seviro flips town, Michael would be highly suspicious and so would Nova Terra. If we lynch Seviro and Seviro flips scum, Michael would be off my radar, and Nova would still remain suspicious. If we lynch Nova_Terra and he flips town, I would be highly suspicious, and ninja4ever would be partially suspicious. If we lynch Nova_Terra and he flips scum, I would be off the radar, and ninja4ever wouldn't be that suspicious. The thing that confused me is day 1 they both defended Artanis slip. Which is something scum I would have thought would jumped all over, if a town had a scum slip. Obviously all 3 mafia aren't going to connect themselves by jumping on it. But at least one would jump on it, and if the town went with it they would get that day 1 active lynch. Michael pushed this point hard, but it seemed like he really believed it, even though the lynch was really risky. The main reason I would pick a Seviro lynch over a Nova_Terra is to get information on Michael, who has a super Null read for me at the moment. I can't figure it/him out. I still think case-wise, the Nova_Terra case seems stronger to me, but Seviro is suspicious based on the context of his actions/posts, more than the actual post content. Gotta go back over the filter, and gotta recheck the meta, as this is a really close call in my head: Seviro (Vanilla Town SNMM VIII): http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=317174&user=188261 Seviro this game:http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=322222&user=188261 Nova_Terra (Vanilla Town SNMM VIII): http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=317174&user=255225 Nova_Terra this game : http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=322222&user=255225 @Michael, I feel like your tunnelling Goss hard, He defended the same case twice already. It is stopping you and him from providing further analysis. | ||
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Except there is some unique cases, if both Nova and Seviro are scum obviously they are going to vote for the opposite. Also it is possible that Virtu is scum and since hes not voting we can't really look into it. Mafia most likely has 3/8 active voters right now (if virtu is town) the fact that the Seviro vote is going a bit too smooth worries me. | ||
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If we lynch Seviro and Seviro flips scum, Michael would be off my radar, and Nova would still remain suspicious. If we lynch Nova_Terra and he flips town, I would be highly suspicious, and ninja4ever would be partially suspicious. If we lynch Nova_Terra and he flips scum, I would be off the radar, and ninja4ever wouldn't be that suspicious." This is what I said, and I still stand by it. However, lynch first who you think is scummiest, not by what information it can give you. Seviro is for sure the safest lynch, information wise. But either way, if we don't lynch a scum today its a huge loss, nothing can give us more information than a scum lynch. Right now Michael is kinda looking town but im not sure, he pushed the first case/vote against seviro today. Which would be ambitious for a mafia player to do, however he pushed Artanis really hard day one, this doesn't make him scummy. But it is possible that scum was taking advantage of a town slip to really kill an active townie day 1. Also WIFOM from the night kill leads me to believe mafia wanted us to go after Michael because Froggy put a case on him, then died. Only other significant thing Froggy did was point out an inconsistency on Seviro. So it kinda leads back to Seviro because at the first of the day Seviro put a case on Michael, to hope to get someone would agree with him and get a bandwagon on him, later on someone would surely mention the WIFOM to strengthen the case on Michael. But, this is all too WIFOM for me to base important decisions on. | ||
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1. Just looking at the people voting Nova_Terra, I trust them a lot less than the people voting Seviro. Nova_Terra voters: Seviro - No trust, Gossemer - semi trust, ninja4ever - No trust Seviro voters: Nova_terra - No trust, Artanis - almost complete trust, blueyD semi trust, Michael - Null. 2. Nova_Terra was the first person to defend Artanis, now the closest to confirmed town we have. On March 24 2012 02:20 Nova_Terra wrote: The gist of it: Ok, fair enough. I just feel that Seviro is in a position where myself or a few other posters here could be in. I feel a bit weird about that o.o nice catch on that slip, but seeing as this IS a newbie game, it isnt very telling. at all. I hate that it works that way, but yeah, i should think that scum slips (even if they are from townies) will happen relatively often. Anyways, as a general note to everybody, please dont make assumptions like this (even if they are about me.) i would prefer us to be looking at all the options than i would have us assuming peoples roles, at least in our minds. Artanis, can you tell me your thoughts on Rise of Fenix? if it came down between him and a lurker, who would you rather lynch and why? It was quick and reactionary, and wasn't a bandwagon opinion. 3. Nova's defense was bad yes, but so was Seviros. I feel Seviro has been just replying to anything even mentioning him from day 1, and responding in an aggressive tone. 4. Nova's reponse when time is running out/desparation. - Is posting analyses on people who were considered suspicious. Seems like he is genuinely worried for the towns well being after hes gone. As shown above. 5.Seviro is the safer lynch, if he flips town I think it gives us more of a direction on certain people he interacted with. This is the hardest choice I've had in this game by far, I hope it turns out for the best. I would like people to take the discussion from the scummy traits to why you think who you are voting for is the better candidate of the two. This could bring in some new good points I didn't think of. Please give me your opinion on this, I will be back in 2 hours, and am willing to re-look at the evidence and change my vote back. ##Unvote: Nova_Terra ##Vote: Seviro | ||
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Alright, michael is now officially looking scum for me. However, if michael is scum, why would Seviro as scum put a case against him? So this makes Seviro look less scummy. But why would Michael vote Nova if Nova is scum? It looks like he's trying to create confusion and get a no-lynch, directly after I changed my vote to Seviro. Note he waits till after I do this to say anything. It seems like 2/3 of these guys are scum. Why would he go for the majority on Nova if nova was scum, it would be so hard to get a majority lynch... If he got a no-lynch it would save a scum, if not, he could say he voted a scum off, making him innocent. So a safe bet? Last minute bus? Seviro's vote switch is really odd. But it isn't influenced by my vote switch as we both posted at the same time. Why would Seviro vote himself? As mafia, trying to add confusion and get a no-lynch, would only want a no-lynch if both him and Nova were mafia, as it coulda went either way. As town, he actually was looking out for the best of the towns interests and doesn't want a no-lynch to go through. Realizes this lynch will bring important information to the table. If 2/3 of these guys are mafia, what is the most likely mafia duo? Michael/Nova -> Most Likely Nova/Seviro Seviro/Michael -> Least Likely IMO. Keep the discussion up we need a solid choice. Artanis don't just shift to Seviro, we have enough activity that we can discuss this legit. | ||
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On March 27 2012 08:13 Artanis[Xp] wrote: Or perhaps that's just exactly what Mafia wants us to think because they realize it's the only chance to save Seviro at this point. Too much WIFOM, and you're questioning it to the point that I'm starting to question your legitimacy. Artanis I am just really confused by Michaels play, he can't be town. How can anyone be that terrible? My last two posts were a reaction to me just getting back and reading this garbage, unproductive mafia propghanda confusion. Right now you are the only person I trust in the game. I would like discussion on this recent matter cause I want to pressure this ridiculousness. But in the end I think either Nova or Seviro would be a good lynch at least for information, and if we are lucky. They are both scum. In the end I'm gunna leave the call to you, because a no lynch is unacceptable. I will vote the way you think the majority vote, should and is most likely to go. | ||
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On March 27 2012 08:17 Artanis[Xp] wrote: There's just been too many mafia tricks this day. They're definitely doing a good job throwing us off. The only reason I can imagine for this is because there's a mafia on the chopping block. Seviro was the likely candidate to get lynched and him voting for himself makes more sense for scum then town, since it's basically just another trick in the book. Tricks are things mafia uses a lot more often than town. Too many attempts at confusion lead me to believe we've got the right target. You make a good point. Lets be confident in our analysis and go from there after the flip. | ||
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On top of that I looked like an idiot, cause instead of straight analysis I have been doing I was doing more of what if's piled on top of what if's with crazy master plans. I will go back to what works, good plain old logic. Depending on the flip/if we get a replacement will decide how our night discussion goes. I'm done posting in this game for tonight, I will come back to check the flip. | ||
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On March 27 2012 12:24 Gossemerr wrote: I need to post something before I go away for a while, as it REALLY bothers me: Mementoss, the apparently super green townie Mementoss did this EXACT SAME thing last game. For those of you whom didn't read it: He was a scum that game, and he basically said this "either Seviro (who was also in that game, was town) or Gossemerr (me, was also town) are scum, but NOT both." Basically it meant that if we followed his logic then we would lose two townies. It so happened that we lynched Seviro and the game ended because of mod kills, but you all should get my point. I don't like this shit. Its like adding connections where they should not be, in order to influence votes. Here look at this earlier quote: He clearly states that we should not be adding connections above, very clearly actually. Also he did this same thing last game at the same time, when the next day would be a lynch or lose situation. If we lynch wrong D3 we lose already, unless there are more blues (but I don't think so as there was only one last game). notice how, Seviro flipped town.. If he is scum, this would be another smart play to make sure the game is won. All of us remaining town really need to read and analyze tonight. If you are scared to post because you might be murdered, just post with like <5 minutes left or whatever before the night post (I will probably do the same in case I die tomorrow as well). ##FoS: Mementoss I'm town. Right now my opinion is that I could be off that they were one of them were scum. But I had more of a feeling Nova was scum than Seviro, but with Artanis (one of the most influencal players) keeping his Seviro vote, Seviro actually voting himself and running off, and virtu a player who would not be posting all voted Seviro. Seviro voting himself as town was a really stupid move. It basically made it impossible to get a majority on Nova if we wanted it. He made it seem as he wasn't going to post before nights end then made a good post before he died. -_-. If Nova was scum, with 3 mafia in play, Seviro, +3 mafia, + virtu. Made a majority for him almost no matter what. How is the above a connection? I did not connect 2 players, I basically said what information we could get from the flip. As for the lynch, I actually think going for a Nova lynch in a lynch right or lose situation is a really risky move. And would rather go for these new suspicions from the flip/Seviro's confirmed town last dieing words. All WIFOM though not a strong case leads me back to michael. Will go into this further later. From my experience in mini's the 3 person mafia team usually has the following team composition: The Controller (Tries to control the town's opinion) - This case Michael (SNMM VIII - Mementoss) The Semi-Contributer (Pops in with a opinion when its convienent) - This case BlueyD>Nova>>Gossemer (SNMM VIII - Janaan) The Semi-Lurker (Barely ever posts, but posts just enough) - This case Ninja4ever or Virtu (SNMM VIII - Cosine) Also I underlined your last opinion, how bout no. That is a scummy statement. We want people to keep the discussion up or the town is doomed. Don't worry about dieing, worry about saying something that leads to a scum kill after your death. Honestly, I don't think anyone should be worried about dieing. There are only two possible mafia kills in my eyes. 1. Artanis 2. Mementoss Probably not me anymore because I am thought of as less green than before by a couple townies. Lets not worry about confirming town, lets worry about nailing scum. Post your best analysis tonight, post what you think will get a kill tomorrow. We can still win this with good play, hopefully virtu was town and we get a good replacement. After the first one it should only get easier. | ||
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Alright off of the game balance talk, Nova, if you are town. Please step it up today. I want to hear some good analysis from you. As of late you have at least been putting logic into your play. Make your best analysis you ever made ever. We need everyone on board asap. That being said, I plan on doing a huge post later today on my thoughts on this game. Hopefully I can get some good analysis, and good cases and figure it out. | ||
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Im posting all of what I think in case I die tonight. You don't need to read it all at the moment, read parts and come back later, you can use it as a reference after I flip green if needed. I will be analyzing from most suspicious to least suspicious. 1. MichaelThe Filter Analysis: First couple of posts are standard in mafia game, so I won't quote them as they don't say much. Basically here is a summary: 1. Lets lynch a lurker, force activity 2. Town loses because of inactivity 3. Here are some guides I found helpful 4. I am a noob don't feel threatened by me I looked up OMGUS. (scum trait) Spends next couple of posts saying the same basic things. Lets post quality posts, while he just continues to post the same stuff he said. Lets jump into the first post worth noting: + Show Spoiler + On March 23 2012 07:19 michaelthe wrote: Actually, completely by accident. He should be below sc2system and ninja, but above froggy. I was tracking posts by quality and page by assigning a value to each post from 0 (greeting, basic chatter), 1 (very basic, but maybe an opinion), 2 (basic thoughts), or 3 (solid attempt at analysis for day1). Best I could do for day1... I suspect filters and exact content will matter more on day 2 or 3+ The scores are as follows: sc2system: 0,0 (a few posts on day1 I lumpped I think) Ninja: 0,0 Froggy: 0,1,1 And, as you said and I missed: Fenix: 1,1 (Argentina) So I will add him to the list, I guess in fairness I will give him 8 hours from this post, so an extra 40 minutes or whatever Revised list: 1. Sc2system 2. Ninja 3. Rise of Fenix 4. Froggy It is a list, of the least useful townies. It contains an ultimatum to post or be lynched, which is never followed up one. Note that 3 people on this list have been confirmed town. This leaves only 1 person left, Ninja4ever. It is common for mafia to say who they are suspicious of through lists, where they don't have to really have an indepth analysis of why. Along these same lines, its common to include a fellow mafia player on this list not at the first place position. In case that person does flip scum it doesn't bite your ass, and not putting them number 1 or analyzing anything doesn't bring a lot of attention to them. + Show Spoiler + On March 23 2012 15:23 michaelthe wrote: I couldn't help but laugh a bit, one of the main criticisms of your play is that when you wanted to accuse me then found out you could vote and change it off you still didnt.... You still arent! Anyways, I was going to post before I went to bed on the issues of the past few hours: On Fenix: The issue is whether he was legitimately confused or had some sort of contradiction. One of the things that caught my eye when Mementoss lined up Fenix's posts where these two lines: Someone pointed out that voting last minute appears scummy, but then he insists he meant vote and not post thoughts. The idea of him voting late became somewhat reasonable when we found out he didn't know you could change your vote, but the idea that he initially posted thoughts when he meant votes is still odd. Even with English as a second language, thoughts and votes are not the same. The other analysis of Fenix was based on a few other minor contradictions such as accusing without voting, saying he would vote for me but not (and again here...) and a few other minor things. The issue is simple- is Fenix just making bad plays, or is he scum making really odd contradictions. Some of the things I thought of when looking at Mementoss' criticism are 1) Most newbies games don't find a mafia in day 1, the analysis is too shaky, 2) Fenix made multiple mistakes with terms and ideas, reinforces the idea that Fenix is just making bad plays... This might be true, but we still have a few people that are lurking really hard. I was hoping to stop lurkers with my vote ultimatum, and it worked (or helped) with a few people. But we still have a few that aren't posting. After thinking about it, I think a vote for one of these is better. They are less helpful than "awful town" and also, it prevents them from being modkilled- which is real bad for the town. On Froggy You came out VERY defensive. I called for lurkers to post, and they did... But hey, that's not my strategy!: Your turn Euro's. See you in the morning. Mentions Fenix, but does not state a solid opinion on him either way. Mentions this is scummy, but the rest could be bad town. NEVER commits to either. Wants to be able to say he lynched a greenie to keep majority. Also I find it interesting to see Michael say voting last minute and posting last minute are both scum traits. Both, which he used before the end of last nights lynch, which we will get to. Mentions froggy, but it makes no sense, Froggy states a lynch based on information from pressuring is more strong than a lynch based on other information. Michael says I called out lurkers to post. I don't see how this is defensive. Onto Michaels case vs Artanis: + Show Spoiler + On March 24 2012 05:08 michaelthe wrote: I was 100% ready to come and vote for sc2system. He essentially had zero content in a few filler posts. Then he voted on a bandwagon without activity. BUT the slip from Artanis[Xp] is too severe. Mementoss pointed it out, but it is worth repeating: 1. ONLY scum know who the townies are. This is a simply point, they know who is mafia, therefore they know who isnt mafia. Even if a DT checks someone, the person could have been framed, or the miller, or the GF or whatever. The ONLY way to know someone is town is TO BE mafia. 2. To call this a newbie mistake I think is incorrect. Freudian slip is more likely. There is a natural hesitation in everyone's mind as they play this game. To post with certainty that someone is a Town, even in 3 words, is a massive slip. 3. His only defense is "oops, my bad, scum slips dont happen since I would vet every post". Doesn't convince me. If this were true, 90% of scum slips wouldn't happen! This is too severe to overlook! sc2system is a good lynch, I still don't think Fenix is a great lynch, but Artanis is the clear day1 lynch in my mind! ##Vote: Artanis[Xp] Says he was 100% about to vote sc2system, who was first on his list. All for lynching a lurker day 1 because analysis day 1 is too shaky to go by. Then completely changes his mind and puts down a vote on one of the more active players, who is now almost confirmed town. On point 1, re-states what I initially pointed out, then talks about a bunch of roles that aren't even in this game. Point 2, isn't a point against artanis, its just an opinion of what term it should be called. 3.While his defense was bad, you are over exagherating it by a mile. -Says Fenix is a bad lynch, even though he ends up voting Fenix. -Goes on trying to convince me and Seviro that it was a huge slip and to vote artanis right away. Even after I explain why its not a good day 1 lynch. Tunnels Artanis pretty hard for 3 posts. This is important as it is consistent in his play to tunnel. + Show Spoiler + On March 26 2012 03:10 michaelthe wrote: I'm sorry I was inactive the past 24 hours, rl was busy (still is for the next 12 hours, but daughter is sleeping). I also didn't expect as much discussion in the night phases. This is going to be long post, we actually have a good bit to go over! Night 1 Results: I was initially surprised to see a vig shot on a townie, but it quickly became apparent that this was a great call by Artanis. I would have been going at his throat today due to his slip. Artanis basically proved it was a typo, as he claimed. Artanis is now pretty confirmed town. He also picked his target well. Sc2 was at best an anti-town townie. Initial Day 2 Thoughts At the end of day1, I reread the argument between Seviro and Artanis. While I was pretty sure Artanis was scum, I thought Seviro's reponse was absurd. I came to the conclusion that one of these two were most likely scum... Since Artanis is now mostly-confirmed, the attack on Seviro gained another look. I came today and read and took notes the last 3 pages or so. While reading Night1, I noticed that Goss was the only one to suggest before AND after that sc2 vig hit wasn't good. This was in my notes, but I actually didnt too think much of it until Artanis posted something. Artanis posted a list of 3 ppl. I am going to attack the other two on that list. I know this looks scummy (zomg, Im on a list of 3, look at them 2, not me!), but I think people will see me being reasonable rather than overly-defense on the attack on Seviro/Goss. I already posted that these two aroused my suspicion. My reasons above and below should be clear. Defense from Artanis Artanis makes two points: 1) I defended Fenix as probable town: There were two clear options: He was terrible town, or he was terrible scum. What made me think he was just terrible town is because he was confused on multiple issues regarding the rules and terms in Mafia. He wasn't playing scummy, he was playing confused. I made the case that sc2 was a better lynch, but it was clear we had two useless players, either of them wasn't bad. I think most people weren't surprised when Fenix flipped town, but everyone was fine with that. 2) You call it a change in play style when I went from analytical to jumping on you hard for your slip. I much prefer an analytical style- rather, thats how I think. I would suggest jumping on you was objective. Everything I know and have read about mafia points out that your slip was the largest scum slip in the book. I could imagine mafia vets coming and analyzing the game and saying “WTF, NO ONE CAUGHT ARTANIS' SLIP?!?!” You yourself admitted it was a giant slip. Jumping on it was objectively a good thing. If you want more, let me know. On Seviro: (This is based heavily on his filter, pull it up if you want to see specific posts, this is already long enough without them all) First substantial post after initial wave of basic crap: 1. He is suggesting a policy lynch based on not voting within an 8 hour deadline. The reason policy lynches are bad is because it removes analysis and focuses only on the policy. This one specifically means someone would be a lynch target simply for voting 4 hours from the deadline rather than 8. If you get scum to meet the deadline, the scum get a free town kill. 2. Seviro's reponse to Artanis Attack. I was fairly certain Artanis was scum, after what I saw as a strong slip. But I think the vig claim was great (more on that later). I reread the Artanis / Servio post and thought Artanis' attack was simple (based on day1 stuffs..) but Serviro WAY overreacted with his defense. He went on to vote for Artanis in his defense, which is a TERRBIE move! 3. FOUR minutes later he states a willingness to go after Fenix... After the Fenix train picks up some steam, he totally forgets about Artanis. Then he changes OFF Artanis and... onto Virtu, for not being active enough. His acusations are extremely fickle. He ends the day by jumping on the same train as everyone, Fenix. 4. After Day1, he posts that he thinks sc2system is town. He has defended bad play of Fenix and SC2 as town. ONLY MAFIA KNOW WHO TOWNIES ARE! He discusses the virtu vote as “pressure”. A vote with nothing behind it, with no case, nothing. He doesn't at all revisit his Artanis vote here. His most recent posts finally address the Artanis vote, his reasoning is ABSURD: He says it wasn't a chainsaw defense, but then pretty much describes a chainsaw defense. We have all been discussing the initial Seviro/Artanis issue, I think Seviro would rather see it buried. On Gossemerr: What really caught me off was him talking about the vig shot. Before and after the vig shot he thinks its a terrible idea. First, here is why its a good vig shot: 1) Artanis had a LOT of heat on him (at least in mind) due to a big mistake of calling someone a townie (which only Mafia could know). Artanis is now the most confirmed town we have. 2) sc2system was either a anti-town townie (useless posts, wanting to confuse ppl, etc.) or scum. A vig shot on him isn't bad in either case. A townie posting anti-town crap is useless. Even more useless if they get modkilled later for inactivity! Further more, it is particularly absurd that Goss would dislike this vig shot because Goss' ONLY attack has been agasint sc2system! Why would be pro-lynch on him and not pro-vig hit!? I think Goss thinks it's pro-town to frown upon a vig shot hitting a green, and therefore did. Everyone else was pretty much in consensus that it was a good vig shot. Conclusion I think this is terribly scummy from both Seviro and Goss. Seviro wanted his bad play buried, he ignored it mostly, and then defended it poorly. Goss made a big mistake of being the only person to go against the vig hit, despite making a case agasint the target! He went against the vig hit because he thinks it's pro-town to frown upon the vig accidently killing a green. Right now I would vote for either of these, I think they both made major mistakes. If I could vote twice, I would. I'm starting with Seviro because I think it's too his advantage to have more time past from his mistakes so he can bury them. Also, he has already tried, and failed, to cover up his bad play, Goss hasn't had a full chance to defend himself. ##Vote: Seviro Explains why vig shot was good. I already stated early why it was good. Second time posting the same thing relatively quick after I post this. Maybe because I look town and if he says what I say he will look town? Decides since Artanis is almost confirmed town, and he argued with Seviro, Seviro must be a scum. Poor poor logic. From this he is the first person Day 2 to post a case against Seviro, who ultimately ends up getting lynched and flipping green. Lets look at his case. 1st point - Takes words out of context, he mentioned people who don't vote before 8 hours may be good candidates to lynch. Not policy to auto lynch them. 2nd point - You used OMGUS, lets lynch him 3rd - In context, he did this because he didn't want a no-lynch day 1. 4 - He states who he thinks are town, even though its bad play. Never said confirmed town, this point is useless. Lets look at the gossemer case: Based completely on Goss opinion on the vig shot. Re-explains what I said. Using WIFOM to say you think its bad? You must think its pro-town to think its bad? YOUR SCUM. Obviously vig shot on green is worse than vig shot on scum. + Show Spoiler + On March 26 2012 14:48 michaelthe wrote: Re: Goss On the vig shot: -You had made a case against him. You had a high suspicion he was scum. This was YOUR case and YOUR suspicion which you later essentially deny. -You suggest that he might have “stepped up on day 2?” More likely he would have made it more difficult. I think that was clear on day 1. -Artanis basically confirmed himself town for day 2 when he was a good lynch target for day 2. He gave the town a valuable asset, while taking out a useless/bad/possible scum person. -Even AFTER you realized the above point, you still dont see it as good? You are pretty much the only person who sees the vig kill as bad, I still do not understand why. There has been a call for you to post some more substantial content. I would like to hear your thoughts on the current issues. Nova and Seviro would be a good start. -Tunnels gossemer case further basically re-stating what he said before, even after Goss defends it. Tunneling towns to get focus on them, or at least have the town doubt them. It makes the tunnelled player unable to post anything of use then makes them look suspicious later in the game. I doubt a mafia would tunnel another mafia. They would make a case, but not further tunnel it. Vote switching before deadline without reason, after scolding RoF for even bringing it up. + Show Spoiler + On March 27 2012 06:29 michaelthe wrote: I am changing my vote to Nova. He was already on my short list of potential suspects. I think the initial case against his meta shift was okay, but pretty much confirmed by his reponse and ppl from last game, in addition to analysis of his posts this game and weak defense. I would also hope we get 6 votes on him rather than 5. Why? Mafia benefit from a no lynch, as the same targets would remain with no new info. A mafia could quick switch from one target to make this happen, maybe even Nova voting for himself. After seeing Seviro vpte himself, the other option is that both of the two targets tonight are red. Seviro and Nova could be planning to swap votes last second in order to score the no lynch. They could both argue this is better for them, since they both suggest self preservation as the motive. (Although this may be weaker since I am posting this). Nova has been posting some random analysis in the past few hours. This could be a last ditch effort to prove useful, or he could also be doing this to try and get me hit tomorrow in the day lynch if Seviro comes up green and is killed tonight. If we killed seviro, and he flipped green, we would have two suspects, Nova and Me. Nova would obviously go for me. Again, I think we need 6 votes, if not 7, depending on which scinario we have (and who the third mafia is). ##Vote: Nova_Terra After tunnelling Goss and seviro so hard for the first 40 hours of the day, you would think he would switch from one to the other. Nope. He switches to Nova. Why? He doesn't switch because he agrees with the Nova case, actually he never commented on my case against Nova or Nova's defense actually. He switches purely because of some WIFOM ideas. Mafia last minute switch into no-lynch. Really contradicting of his earlier views, also, maybe trying to get his name off Seviro as he pushed it the hardest, when seviro flips green. + Show Spoiler + On March 27 2012 06:33 michaelthe wrote: This is turning into a clusterF*** tonight. I think its clear that either one or both of the targets are red, otherwise they would just lurk. We have to kill one with a large margin though, as the no-lynch is a big thing we need to be careful of. Read my above post, I think Nova is the target for tonight. You made it a clusterfuck. Re-enforces this idea, so maybe the town will tunnel the other leading in a mafia win the next day. If both targets were green mafia could lurk and let the town kill eachother. If both targets were red I think more cases woulda been thrown on the table rather then them bussing eachother. WIFOM Everyone that has posted a case against Michael is dead and confirmed town. Froggy Case: + Show Spoiler + On March 23 2012 10:07 froggynoddy wrote: Wow. Michaelthe, I'm not sure if you are bad town or bad scum. Regardless, you seem pretty bad. You're first post states (after day 1) that you are for lurker lynch: You're second post has no content: Your third point is some very weak finger pointing: There is pretty much nothing to go by. Your content is zilch, you are putting suspicion on people who have more content than you; I have argued that forcing lurkers to post is beneficial to town, more convincingly than you have (as has seviro and to a certain extent Nova_Terra), yet you put a really weak case forward against three posters. I'm not voting for you YET but you seriously need to shape up. Accusing players who have posted content in day 1 seems scummy to me as there is so little to go by. Make a better case dude. (for all three of us) Seviro Case: + Show Spoiler + On March 26 2012 03:04 Seviro wrote: My main suspect now is Micaelthe: Here is Froggy post about his early game so I won't have to repeat it. + Show Spoiler + On March 23 2012 10:07 froggynoddy wrote: Wow. Michaelthe, I'm not sure if you are bad town or bad scum. Regardless, you seem pretty bad. You're first post states (after day 1) that you are for lurker lynch: You're second post has no content: Your third point is some very weak finger pointing: There is pretty much nothing to go by. Your content is zilch, you are putting suspicion on people who have more content than you; I have argued that forcing lurkers to post is beneficial to town, more convincingly than you have (as has seviro and to a certain extent Nova_Terra), yet you put a really weak case forward against three posters. I'm not voting for you YET but you seriously need to shape up. Accusing players who have posted content in day 1 seems scummy to me as there is so little to go by. Make a better case dude. (for all three of us) I want to add on his ultimatum thingie. + Show Spoiler + On March 23 2012 07:19 michaelthe wrote: Actually, completely by accident. He should be below sc2system and ninja, but above froggy. I was tracking posts by quality and page by assigning a value to each post from 0 (greeting, basic chatter), 1 (very basic, but maybe an opinion), 2 (basic thoughts), or 3 (solid attempt at analysis for day1). Best I could do for day1... I suspect filters and exact content will matter more on day 2 or 3+ The scores are as follows: sc2system: 0,0 (a few posts on day1 I lumpped I think) Ninja: 0,0 Froggy: 0,1,1 And, as you said and I missed: Fenix: 1,1 (Argentina) So I will add him to the list, I guess in fairness I will give him 8 hours from this post, so an extra 40 minutes or whatever Revised list: 1. Sc2system 2. Ninja 3. Rise of Fenix 4. Froggy 2 thing I want to point out with this. First thing, 3 out of 4 on this list are now dead dead townies. Second, he post an Ultimatum than never happen: Which he emphasize as being an ultimatum. Then his first actual vote happen 23 hour after his ultimatum whereas he said an ultimatum of 8 hour more so that he vote for someone that is not on his list. Which lead me to talk about the "Feudian slip" as he calls it. He seems to insist a lot on this than needed, now that we already had ROS and sc2system under the radar he bring back a point that had been discuss hours before as if since ROS and sc2system where dead men walking at this stage if he could change day 1 lynch then day 2 and 3 would have been a big mess for the town. I'll point out also that he was not the first to vote for Artanis since my vote was still on him and most of his opinion were mostly reformulating. Then, at the end of the day he just follow the bandwagon as he see that Artanis won't get lynched. Sorry for the lenght of the post, longer than expected. Also the vote against Nova would give less information about Michael, and if Nova flips red it would make Michael look confirmed town. If Nova flips green we have less information on Michael and he says he just wanted to get a majority. Questions directed at Michael: What is your response to Seviro's last dying post involving you? Why are you such scum and how do you feel about being lynched tommorrow? Overall Opinion Gotta be Scum 2. BlueyD Filter Analysis: + Show Spoiler + On March 23 2012 11:44 BlueyD wrote: Just a quick summary of Rise of Fenix's behavior up to now... - Admits to not reading the rules and says some really confused stuff about voting as a result - Accuses michaelthe due to his eagerness to lynch an inactive, when many have argued we should do this - Tells michaelthe he would vote for him if there were an unlynch in the game - Doesn't actually put in a vote for michaelthe once he knows he can unvote later, says he has no reads instead - Uses really short posts frequently I don't know if the guy is awful scum or awful townie. All I know is he's awful. If he's town, he'll be absolutely useless to us, but if he's mafia, he'll quickly give himself out on the 2nd day, at this pace. I'm putting my chips on bad townie for the moment. To Rise Of Fenix: You better come up with some real information as to why you acted like you acted (see above points), or else I WILL put my vote in for your lynch. --- Ninja4Ever. and sc2system seem to be our 2 big time lurkers at the moment. They, together with Fenix, are part of my top 3 should lynch list. -Sums up my case on RoF. -Has same list as Michael almost, sc2,ninja and Rof. Only missing froggy. On March 24 2012 07:49 BlueyD wrote: We've really got no news on Rise of Fenix so my analysis from my last post about him hasn't changed. Earlier today, I was 50/50 on lynching Fenix or sc2system, since my 3rd top 3 pick (ninja4ever) started posting, but then sc2system started acting... Reaaaally scummy. I'll point to just one thing: Between his vote for Rise Of Fenix and his vote for No Lynch (due, according to him, to Rise now contributing), Rise Of Fenix has ONLY ONE POST. And it says: That's a contribution?! That's even more useless than the rest! I don't know why he chose to vote no lynch at that moment, but his reason makes NO SENSE. Maybe it had to do with him being under attack and trying to make us think he was just a little peaceful guy? ... And then he votes for Virtu out of nowhere. Pure bandwagon jumping, and not one that was going anywhere either way. Virtu hasn't been scummish at all, and while he had a few hours of inactivity, when he posts it at least makes sense. I don't know if we'd get more info out of a Rise of Fenix lynch, but it doesn't matter to me when I'm getting huuuuuge scumvibes from sc2master. -Just thought it was worth mentioning the defense on Virtu Alot of BlueyD's filter is that of a sheep. He is a follower, the opposite of Nova_Terra's case on him. + Show Spoiler + On March 25 2012 06:39 BlueyD wrote: On Rise and sc2system: Short version: Rise was most likely just stupid, not much of a loss if we lynched him and turned up green. sc2system seemed less stupid and just as chaotic as Rise, hence more scummy to me. Not gonna add more on this, it's taken enough space already. --- On Artanis and Seviro: I thought Artanis's case wasn't strong enough to consider a day 1 lynch, but I took notice of it. I'm not gonna clutter up the threat by repeating what he said, but Seviro hasn't shown a strong opinion all game that was really his. He seems to be able to appreciate other people's logic while never coming up with his own. I also didn't like that when he got voted on by Artanis, he just voted Artanis back. And I didn't like that he had a "pressure but no lynch" opinion on lurkers at first, but then switched his vote to Virtu for his period of inactivity, despite many ok Virtu posts before. "Flexible in opinion" is how I'd describe Seviro, and that's not a compliment... Waits for cases to be laid out, comes in and either re-states what they said, or says his opinion on it in a few quick sentences. + Show Spoiler + On March 25 2012 14:08 BlueyD wrote: On the sc2system hit: Ack! Well, he was just as green as Rise was... Given the suspicions many of us had and mementoss's + virtu's suggestion that a vigi hit him tonight, I think it's fair to assume he was vigi hit and froggy was mafia hit. On the froggynoddy hit: I don't know what to make of this. He was off my radar. He was neither the most scummy-looking, nor the most active or inactive, nor the most helpful. I can't read anything from this hit. On Artanis's vigi claim: I'll see whether anyone counterclaims then decide whether to believe you or not. Tomorrow is MLG finals, I'll be at a barcraft all day, should be back at night though. Well you obviously didn't look, or you don't want Michael to be noticed? Is that it? What you say is exactly what mafia wanted to do with this hit, a semi active contributer, that the town couldn't get information off of. You re-stating this information is suspicious, and tries to make it seem like you don't want people to look into it. + Show Spoiler + On March 26 2012 15:17 BlueyD wrote: The best cases by far right now are those brought up against Seviro and Nova. The case against Gossamer by Virtu was unconvincing, especially since he failed to post the whole thing... And the case against michaelthe is weak as well: He defends himself well against Artanis’s legit pressure, and Seviro’s case on him feels very forced to begin with. Nova: Not much to say here, just read mementoss’s post on him, he does an excellent job pointing out the inconsistencies, weak cases brought up, and different metagame of Nova this game... Nova’s defense, in return, is spectacularly bad: He makes the most unreasonably long-winded post in the thread full of real life spam, and explains his ‘new metagame’ as a way to get closer to mementoss’s play, even though he’s actually getting farther from it in my opinion. Scummy behavior in my eyes. I also think it’s funny that he’s leaning “scum” for Seviro and “null leaning scummy” for me, but I’m the one who got FoSed. Seviro: I think he’s scum too. Erratic voting record, most posts giving no new contributions, some stuff about ‘pressure but no lynch’ which was really silly, etc... It’s all been pointed out before me so I won’t repeat. But I will point out a few posts (or parts of posts): + Show Spoiler + “I had no position on this, and since it seems that I don't have opinion or I just use others argument I might as well just not post.” You had no opinion, really?! On a vigi hit?! How seviro’s case against mementoss begins: + Show Spoiler + On March 26 2012 03:04 Seviro wrote: He was the first one to make a real case against Rise Of Fenix which really started the train rolling in my opinion. While Rise was doing a great job of sinking himself into bad and bad post, peolple started to look more into it after this case. He also was the first one to point out sc2system lurkerness.These two people had already been mentionned beforehand, respectively by Gossemer and Ninja4ever. My point is, not that it mean anything since it was the same for a lot of people, his two main suspect flipped town which is worth pointing out I think. 1. These 2 were a lot of people’s first 2 suspects. Pointing out that they were mementoss’s as well is not worth it. 2. He pointed out the lurking of people who had been pointed out by Gossemer and Ninja4ever, which makes him the first to make these cases? Contradiction, anyone? And I like how you position yourself as a defender of Rise, twice... + Show Spoiler + On March 24 2012 05:44 Seviro wrote: Where in the world do you see in this post that I am following the Rise Of Fenix train? Hell i'm like the only one that is trying to defend him. On March 26 2012 03:39 Seviro wrote: What are you talking about?. Literally all the EFFING day I've been DEFENDING Fenix in hope that he would come up with something useful, which didn'T happen. When your only time specifically mentioning Rise day 1 is this: + Show Spoiler + On March 23 2012 06:07 Seviro wrote: And about Rise, posting your thought about 1 hour before the deadline is possibly the more scummy thing you could do as the deadline is relatively late and a lot of people are not around at the time. Voting at this time is basically a ninja vote and it is not right to do so since, as Nova said we wouldn't have enough time to discuss about it and change our vote if need be. He was commenting on Rise's "I will likely post my thoughts about 1 hour before the deadline." comment at that point... I get it now! That must be the old “defend him by pointing out his scummy behavior” strategy! Yeah, I don’t see it too often… I’d be fine with lynching any of these two at the moment. They may very well both be scum. But since I only vote once… ##Vote: Seviro Note the soft defense on Michael here. Also note he says almost the exact same thing as Ninja4ever. "Nova and Seviro are clearly the best cases, michael and goss cases should be disregarded". Does the same as usual, says hey look at this guys case. Its pretty good. I find him suspicious now too. His case against Seviro: His first point against Seviro's no opinion on a vigi hit is legit, but over exhagerated. He then goes onto discredit Seviro's posts about me, which in turn were decent points that shoulda been brought up. Scum trying to defend me to look townish, cause I will ultimately be murdered before I am lynched? Also note how Michael and BlueyD single handidly got the bandwagon on Seviro (townie) going. The only reason Nova_Terra was third on the bandwagon it seems was to keep himself from being lynched. + Show Spoiler + On March 27 2012 00:21 BlueyD wrote: Seviro, let me repost the 3 things you consider defenses of Rise, with bolded parts: Okay, so he plays poorly, looks suspicious, and feels like obvious scum to you. Great defense! It doesn't feel like you're defending him at all to me, since you bring up something I can bold in every single post. I'm not at 1/1 or at 1/4 now, I'm at 4/4. Truth is when someone looks this bad, we lynch him to know what he is. That's how the game is played. He was a decent lynch target from the start and the only defense you could have brought out was "someone else looks even worse", as I did. Never try to defend me, by the way. Bolding the wrong parts, to make it seem super contradicting, when really it wasn't. Initially when I skimmed this I thought it was a decent point. But re-brought to my attention by the late Seviro I realize it was terrible. 1. Basically says, I think he is a bad town. Which is a defense because ultimately we want to lynch scum 2. "more like I don't see him being more scummy than anyone else right now." should have been bolded. 3. Seems to obvious to be scum. So he basically said three times he said he wasn't convinced he was scum. Which means he was more comfortable with another lynch. Which is defending in a sort. You twisting his words against him out of context, and bolding the wrong parts to make him look worse is scum work Mr, scummy indeed. + Show Spoiler + On March 27 2012 06:59 BlueyD wrote: I don't know if we can see Seviro's voting on himself as town-favored, actually. We've already agreed that it's critical we lynch a mafia tonight, so if he's town the good move is certainly not to vote for his own lynching, especially since his take on Nova (our other target) is 'slightly leaning scum'. I would rather have seen a defense than this, or a "yeah, I haven't been great, but Nova is worse, lynch him and give me another chance". I still stand by my idea that both might be red, and they're playing against each other so that the survivor won't be suspicious, given that it seems obvious one of the two is about to get lynched. ------ I want to draw attention to michaelthe's voteswitch. Vote count at the moment of his switch: Seviro (6): michaelthe, BlueyD, Nova_Terra, Artanis[Xp], Mementoss, Seviro Nova_Terra (2): Ninja4ever, Gossemerr And then he switches to Nova, saying we need 6 votes on a guy - but we do before he switches, and not after! He argues that mafia benefits from a no-lynch, but he's actually getting us closer to that himself. Now Seviro just has to switch back at the last minute and we have a no-lynch... So we have here a nice case of "actions go left, words go right" by michaelthe. Same boat as michael here, thinks its most likely both are scum. Goes on to disagree with crazy Michaels shit storm, as it would distance him and michael as one of them would probably get lynched tomorrow. On March 27 2012 07:13 BlueyD wrote: Sure, michaelthe, we can decide we're not counting the 2 guys we suspect as mafia. Then the vote count was 4-2 and it's now 3-3. We're still farther away from a lynch than we were before. I think with BlueyD's most recent post he is trying to bus michael. To give mafia a chance to win after he is lynched. WIFOM: BlueyD helped the bandwagon on seviro. Initially always on the same side of the vote as themichael initially. Similar ideas to ninja4ever Nova Tunnelled BlueyD slighty, if BlueyD is town Nova is probably scum and vice versa Questions to BlueyD Reply to Seviros last post (guess you did now) Who do you think will die tonight/why? Who do you think is logically next to go after Michael flips scum? Overall Opinion Scum-buddies with Michael. The semi-afterthefact-contributer on the Mafia team. 3. Ninja4Ever Filter Analysis First 3 posts, I will try to post later I will try to post later I will try to post later Drunk Stalling, trying to let himself lurk early in the day. On March 23 2012 17:59 Ninja4ever. wrote: Some thoughts before going to school : About the kill lurker strategy : it can make sense, mafia are often lurking as it gives them a way to not be judged and therefore not make mistake. At worst a not so useful townie is killed. Seem like the best thing we can come up with with the lack of information we have on day one. Although, I'd like to say that, since from the very first posts, we said our strategy would very like be to hit on the lurker list. the probabilities of a mafia lurking aren't that great. It's also interesting to think about HOW a lurking mafia, if there is one, would react to such a strategy ? Two things come to my mind : an inexperienced mafia would all of a sudden start posting a lot more than he previously was, and a more experienced one would probably stop lurking just enough not to be considered a lurker anymore. Townies wouldn't change their behavior. I'll analyse more on the lurker list and on the rise of fenix case when I'm back from school, gotta go for now. You would know how a lurking mafia would act, cause you are one. Notes before he is on the list of inactivity lurker lynches. Then comes in and agrees with lurker lynch. Then says wouldn't a lurker mafia post a lot more? Which he does, he basically was posting for the sake of not being a lurker. + Show Spoiler + On March 24 2012 02:33 Ninja4ever. wrote: Ok I FINALLY have time to write everything I've been thinking. Rise Of Fenix case : Kinda hard to speak on it as most of the things have already been said. All his posts are either contradicting each other or not adding real content. The question is, is it just bad play or mafia play ? After going through all of his post, I didn't find a lot that could help mafia, only these two little things : Posts basically saying we HAVE to lynch, what ever happens. No lynch on day one when we have so few information might be the best find to do. A lynch on day one is, especially in a newbie game, a good way for mafia to start, as we have too little information and too little experience to get a mafia. Now, I know in the previous game town tried the no lynch on day one strategy and it failed, but the database if just too small to make any deduction from it. All in all, I still prefere our alternative to pressure lurkers (It is really important that we don’t end up like last game where all the mafia was active against a few remaining townies + lurkers), what I wanted to say is that trying to enforce a lynch strategy is something a mafia would totally do. I’d say it’s 60-40 beteween mafia and townie bad play. Still not enough for me to jump on the lynch band wagon. I still prefer to pressure lurkers, and switch my vote to Rise of Fenix if everyone is active enough. Therefore : ##Vote: sc2system (sorry bro, we're the 2 kind of lurkers left, can't vote for myself) The analysts case : People that actually seem tu put a lot of thinking into their analys are probably as important as blues. The thing is, if one of them is mafia he can screw the town pretty hard, making it really important to know wether or not they're townies. For exemple, two analyses in particular come to my mind : 1°) Mementoss on Rise of Fenix It made perfect sense and I agreed with mostly every thing. Really nothing suspicious there. 2°) Artosis on Seviro I don’t find your analysis based on strong enough evidences to warrant a lynch, your main argument being he posted too much redondancy and too little content, am I right ? Too me this is kinda natural when you have so few information, and it looks like every thing has been pretty much said. You could be trying to gain credit as a mafia and could also be a mafia that doesn’t want to look like he’s jumping on the Fenix wagon. By posting this analys you’d be killing two birds with one stone. As I said though, this is only really slight suspicion (around 55-45 mafia-townie, in my eyes) and even I is more suspicous at the moment, given my inactivity on the past couple days. Says no-lynch might be okay day 1. Leaving town with little to no information. Also again talking about the mafias situation, lynching wrong helps them get to a good start. Town not getting information day 1 and getting a free kill is also a damn good start. So much talk about the mafia situation makes me think you are mafia, also its very WIFOM. Pressures sc2system with a vote, but mainly to get the attention off himself as he notes. Only mafia would be scared of having attention on themselves this early. A townie can get rid of it by just posting non scummy things. Doesn't mention the scum slip by artanis. Probably because michael is working on his huge tunnelling case on it and doens't wanna be associated with that. + Show Spoiler + On March 24 2012 07:07 Ninja4ever. wrote: It seems that we don't really have any lurker left to be honest, with virtu posting soon every one seem to be active at least to some extent. We should really start voting based on who we find the most suspect. I already voted sc2system based on its inactivity, saying I'd switch to RoF if he'd become active enough. The thing is he did post more but in a very scumy way. (the confuse people part is very relevant). Therefore I'm keeping my vote for now. Although, as mementoss said (who looks the greenest of us all in my eyes) we really need to set on someone if we want to get a lynch Everyone is active, there is no lurker, but i want to kill a lurker, I will vote sc2system. If sc2system is active I will switch to RoF bandwagon. It seems like a mafia trait to say to not only say im green, but to agree with me, restate what I said, and over exhagerate how confirmed town I am, when I am only confirmed town from my own perspective. Then comes in to say Artanis is 100% confirmed town after vigshot claim. He seems to be more focused on confirming town and getting rid of lurkers, than actual scum hunting. + Show Spoiler + On March 26 2012 03:52 Ninja4ever. wrote: So let's look at who was brought up recently : seviro, Michaelthe, Gossemerr and nova. I find the cases on michaelthe and gossemerr to be very weak, while the one on nova and Seviro to be clearly the most appealing, with nova being slightly more suspect. The thing being, I have a two pages short story to write for tommorow, so I won't be able to correctly expand on why as I lack in time. here are some explanations though : Mementoss case on nova was great. At this point it doesn't matter even matter wether or not Mementoss is scummy, I find his explanation to be too good. Seviro lack of content in his posts and overall undeciveness make him look like someone that want to add chaos to the thread, very scummy like. Michaelthe, mostly suspected because he's " repeating too much stuff " which I find to be the least important tell when there's so few information to work with, in the beginning stage. He just seem like someone who doesn't have so much time and wanted to show he's active cause of the lurker pressure. Also suspected because he was quick to jump on artanis bandwagon, which was to me one of the two most logical thing to do at the time (the other one being voting against RoF) Gossemerr : mostly suspected because he wanted to lynch sc2system but not vigkill him. Don't think it's telling, as artanis said the fact that sc2system turned out green makes it kinda irrevelant, and he might have simply thought that sc2system wasn't suspect enough to waste one vighit. I won't be much more active tommorow sadly, but will be a lot more from monday night ! For now : ##Vote: Nova_Terra But it can greatly change depending on nova's and seviro's defense. Says something really similar to blueyD, Seviro and Nova cases are good while Goss Michael cases are bad. Leads the town into primarily focusing on those two cases for the day rather than exploring into Michael. Also agrees with my opinion once again. Stays away from bandwagoning the BlueyD Michael, Seviro vote. Than uses Seviro's self vote with some WIFOM to jump on the Seviro bandwagon with his scum friends. + Show Spoiler + On March 27 2012 08:52 Ninja4ever. wrote: I decided to simply ignore Seviro self vote, it can equally mean he's a townie trying to prove he'll do anything for town or a scum that wants us to think that. Well, putting more thought into that, it's an interesting move. Look at what happened earlier : Seviro is suspected. He seems to be a rather agressive player, and answer with his read on everyone. One could expect he would totally go all out on the most suspicious person of the moment : Nova. So what does he say about him ? + Show Spoiler + Nova_TerraDon't know at all, I'd say slightly leaning scum mostly because of the meta difference from last game as stated by Mementoss. That doesn'T mean much since it was his first game but I feel that his defense have been pointlessly long. He is helping the discussion by asking question which is good but he seems scared when it is his turn to answer which is a scum behaviour, if you have nothing to hide you shouldn't be scared This is weird to me. It looks like he's trying to avoid giving his opinion on Nova (slightly scum ? Remember that this is just after Nova's very weak defense), and prefer to go on the kinda weak michael case. Why would he avoid pointing his finger on Nova ? Well, I feel that : if seviro is townie, he'd jump on Nova's neck asap if seviro is mafia and therefore know Nova is townie, he'd jump on that very suspicious case BUT if they're both mafia, it makes sense that seviro is trying to avoid as much contact with nova. What kinda annoys me in this is the fact that nova didn't hesitate one second to say " I'll speak on saviro later " during his defense. May be they just didn't communicated before hand ? Seems kinda unlikely. May be nova wants to give seviro credit when he's lynched, seeing how strong his case was ? May be once again, but this become too WIFOM to be of any real interest. What's happening now ? Seviro self vote. What's interesting is that it happens just after mementoss said something among the lines " well they might bu just 2 mafia busing each other " and here we go : not busing anymore. All in all, it makes sense that they would be two mafias, which might be too good to be true. I'll personally go for seviro for two reasons : firstly he's the one with the most vote at the moment and I absolutly want a lynch. Secondly, there's basically two leaders here : mementoss and artanis. Artanis, the greenest of all people, say go for seviro. Then mementoss comes and tries basically a kinda last second and very slightly suspect switch. I trust artanis more, so I'll go with his plan, even though I think both are scum really. (nova and seviro huh ? not artanis and mementoss) Also agrees with what both BlueyD and Michael said. They are both scum. Hmmm maybe trying to get us to tunnel Nova day 3? Basically also says, I'll go with Seviro now cause im a bandwagoner. If seviro was town, which he was, he shoulda been pushing whoever he thought was scum the hardest, not automatically going OMGUS to Nova to save his own ass, not voting himself. Basically just a lot of agreeing, very safe passive play. A lot of fluff some WIFOM for ya. WIFOM Says similar views to BlueyD that leads town into Seviro vs Nova all day. Waits to bandwagon Seviro Questions/statements to ninja: Why don't you ever take the initiative to scum hunt? Why would you rather confirm townies all day? Why are you such a lurker? How come these similarities keep poking up with you BlueyD and Michael? What are your thoughts on Seviros final words/The michael Lynch day 3? Overall Opinion The Passive Posting Scum Lurker I don't give a shit if this gets me killed tonight if it can help the town get in the right direction for the win. Also, if I soak up a kill Artanis the confirmed townie stays alive which keeps the scum narrowed down. Was thinking of doing a shorter analysis on the other players leaning Town/Null for me. Might post later. Too tired now. I will at least give my list of most suspicious to least suspicious. 1. Michael 2. BlueyD 3. Ninja4ever 4. Nova Terra 5. Virtu 6. Gossemerr 7. Artanis 8. Mementoss | ||
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On March 27 2012 20:49 Mementoss wrote: We want people to keep the discussion up or the town is doomed. Don't worry about dieing, worry about saying something that leads to a scum kill after your death. Honestly, I don't think anyone should be worried about dieing. There are only two possible mafia kills in my eyes. 1. Artanis 2. Mementoss Probably not me anymore because I am thought of as less green than before by a couple townies. | ||
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By townies I meant the people I am leaning town towards are the ones at least analysing me. Worded poorly, Seemingly townies, or just others woulda been better. Only people I can think of off the top of my head to point out anything I said that seems off, or inconsistent are Seviro (town) Artanis (almost confirmed town). And I guess now you. So it was somewhat accurate as one actually flipped green. Mafia seem to be avoiding me, as I will be a night kill eventually and they don't want to be negatively connected to me in any way. Going out for the night. Be back tomorrow. Hopefully alive. | ||
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Right now its 5-3, in about 10 minutes it will be 4-3. We cannot no-lynch or town loses. Since there is a case on me now, I think mafia will definitly kill Artanis, gg, you were helpful overall to the town. Michael will then try to push me tommorrow. We need three correct lynches in a row. Focus on them one scum at a time. We can do this. Will brush my teeth and come back to see if I am actually still alive later. Will reply to posts on me tommorrow if nessecary. Night all. | ||
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Virtu seemed like the obvious pick. Why wouldn't you want to kill someone thought up as "confirmed" townie? This label helps town eliminate someone who is off there radar for scum hunting. A) Virtu's claim is fake, and/or mafia had a night vig for 2kp night one somehow. It seemed weird how the kill flavour were both identical. -> Our whole game thus far has been based on this one claim, it's closed setup and we have no idea how many of what roles there are. It seems like a mistake in a closed game to make this assumption. However, it is too risky to go back on what we have already decided to be truth. Therefore, if A) is true we the town have already lost. B) Mafia thinks we have a Medic. -> I don't why they think we have a medic but if they did they would know if they went after the obvious kills pointed out by the town the medic would have a 50% chance of saving them, putting them in an awkward situation. Mafia went with an unobvious choice to solidify there lead. C) Mafia is trying to confuse us. -> Mafia was in trouble after at least 2/3 of there members were labelled suspicious. Leading some sort of propaganda that puts doubt on Artanis a bit, but more than not me, Mementoss. I have been getting some heat lately, and Seviro mentioned a quick point out on some inconsistencies, and then was lynched. Gossemerr, mentioned me, and then was night killed. Its a little WIFOM that they are trying to put in the back of peoples minds to try and strengthen that I am scum. Most likely option. | ||
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" Also, why have you totally lost all suspicion in Nova? I have my reasons, but I will post them after you." -It would have been a good opinion to hear. -_-. To answer it now, I haven't lost all suspicion in Nova, I just find him less suspicious than the ones I labelled above. I am keeping on an eye on him, but will see if I find anything on him after we kill michael. And before I forget, ##Vote: michaelthe | ||
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EBWOP: Replace Virtu with Artanis. I had Virtu on my mind cause I wanted to mention that if possible could he read up on the thread and post some sort of analysis if possible. God Damnit brain. | ||
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You're whole argument is WIFOM, or quoting other peoples arguments against me. You think with your life on the line you would be able to make up some stuff to make me look scummy at least. -To saying my point on Artanis is weak is right, I even said it wasn't at all likely I was just bringing it up for the sake of completeness of why he wasn't targeted. He countered my point by pointing out a mafia vigilante isn't a role. Making what I said impossible and I accept that. I said this situation was most likely: On March 28 2012 20:49 Mementoss wrote: C) Mafia is trying to confuse us. -> Mafia was in trouble after at least 2/3 of there members were labelled suspicious. Leading some sort of propaganda that puts doubt on Artanis a bit, but more than not me, Mementoss. I have been getting some heat lately, and Seviro mentioned a quick point out on some inconsistencies, and then was lynched. Gossemerr, mentioned me, and then was night killed. Its a little WIFOM that they are trying to put in the back of peoples minds to try and strengthen that I am scum. Most likely option. If I was scum and you were town why would I kill Gossemerr? He would be the worst choice to kill. If the mafia just hit Artanis people would probably shift to the plan he laid out expecting his death. And his number one choice was to kill you, which would in turn, win me the game if I was scum and you were town. Killing Gossemerr would just bring negative attention back to me. Your whole case is based on this WIFOM and the WIFOM doesn't even line up. Your team is bussing you because defending you at this point would be suicide for the mafia team. The mafia kill is a desperation move that tries to lead the town to lynching me. I think the mafia acted out of desperation because either 2/3 or 3/3 of my scum cases are correct. If they just killed me, they had Artanis who already stated he agreed for the most part of my list. If they killed Artanis, I would just follow up on what I said/continue to scum hunt after Michaels death. On March 28 2012 23:41 michaelthe wrote: If I am scum, it would have been obvious to target Artanis or Mementoss. If I am scum and flip red, it means the town has pretty much 2 very strong greens. This would be a terrible plan. I should stress this with an underline! Yes it was a terrible plan. Gives us the town a better chance than we woulda had otherwise. | ||
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Time to defend the same stuff as before. 1. I already defended this. Couple of townies, I meant people who put cases on me, which at that point were Seviro (flipped town) and Artanis (accepted as almost confirmed town). "Couple of townies". Worded poorly and shoulda been worded differently. 2. On March 28 2012 03:29 Mementoss wrote: 1. Michael 2. BlueyD 3. Ninja4ever 4. Nova Terra Suspicions list. Nova right behind who I analysed.Not on my radar for lynch today (because of you), but definitely considered for next day. Also this: On March 28 2012 20:53 Mementoss wrote: I am so mad at myself for missing this before Gossemerrs death. " Also, why have you totally lost all suspicion in Nova? I have my reasons, but I will post them after you." -It would have been a good opinion to hear. -_-. To answer it now, I haven't lost all suspicion in Nova, I just find him less suspicious than the ones I labelled above. I am keeping on an eye on him, but will see if I find anything on him after we kill michael. 3. How is this the same "meta". Im not saying lynch these people if this happens, im saying look into them. Even though it seems like everyone is set on lynching michael, we need to keep up the discussion about the next lynch too. The more talk we can get out of our suspects the better. | ||
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Right now my feeling on the lynch tommorrow is either Nova_Terra or BlueyD Here is the list of remaining players with the top 2 being confirmed town (from my perspective): Artanis Mementoss BlueyD Nova_Terra Virtu Ninja4ever That means we have a 50% chance of lynching a mafia. I think we should stick to lynching either BlueyD or Nova_Terra while putting pressure on Virtu and Ninja4ever to post. Right now I feel like a lynch on virtu or ninja is a complete guess, because of there poor activity. Which is a shame. I am leaning BlueyD for tommorrows lynch > Nova Terra right now. WIFOM: When michael knew he was going down, you'd think he would just keep his mouth shut. Honestly I don't think his team would want him trying to bring them down with him. He tried to bring me down, but he also tried to bring a lot of attention back to the Nova Case, even though I already explained myself. Purely WIFOM This lynch will give us a lot of information I feel, because if BlueyD flips scum I doubt Nova is scum. Nova put the first case on him (seems super early to make an analysis case on team) as well as advocated another case on him recently. If nova flips scum, blueyd still could be scum but its less likely. Its possible that they're on the same team. But doesn't seem likely to me right now. Between Ninja4ever and Virtu its a complete guess. WIFOM, BlueyD flips scum, ninja4ever might be innocent, as BlueyD was already Bussing michael, I doubt he would risk throwing another team mate under the bus. Keep posting guys, the mafia kills have been random so post everything you think or you might die. lol. | ||
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Ninja4ever - Is lurking only to respond with shaky responses and bandwagoning (bad town or scum?) Virtu - Just not saying anything (lurking mafia, or IRL in the way?) Between you and BlueyD we can at least use your posts to analyse and decide who would be the best lynch. Also I think a successful lynch on one of you two would give a lot more information than a successful lynch on Ninja or virtu. Also I am excited to hear what Artanis was planning on responding to you after the lynch. Wonder what that is about. | ||
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As of recent Ninja4ever could also have real life in the way. (exams n such) | ||
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To answer Bluey's question why I am certain there is one scum between him and Nova is because of the cases I did on both of you, you both have scummy traits (you more than him) and the fact he made an early case on you makes me think you are not both aligned together in the mafia. The fact that Janaan (ninja) is voting nova, without a real explanation why to vote him over BlueyD, makes me think I was right about michael, bluey, ninja. No idea what to think on virtu, it is impossible to do anything with him because of his activity. If he is scum, we will have to catch him by almost pure luck. ##Vote: BlueyD | ||
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If you really are town, if you could provide some sort of new stuff against nova that anyone missed, or even how his discussion context is suspicious that would help. Im here now, and Im not locked on either you or Nova. That being said its too late for a Janaan or virtu lynch. | ||
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Then ends up voting Nova, contradicting his words. Very weird. | ||
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And you still are trying to push michaels plan to get the heat off you. You keep stating how you think Janaan virtu are suspicious but yet to have post a case on them. State Nova is probably innocent because of the way michael voted, yet you vote him. You said a couple days ago a case on me would come but never has. @BlueyD hypothetical - Me and Artanis together basically pushed themichael lynch. I posted the main case on him that finalized him getting lynched. If I was scum I coulda pushed a Nova lynch pretty easy, giving less information on michael and sway the case away from michael by convincing Artanis. I already have explained why every WIFOM doesn't make sense. Still a couple people not voting, could be scum last minute fucking the town, or otherwise could be just inactiveness. | ||
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Or your scum. Lol. If Nova is scum and you are town he won't come back to vote and will let you die. If we push a Janaan lynch and he flips scum it could be your brilliant plan to bus your teammate because maybe all three of the mafia have been spotted, and you are in desperation mode. That being said I am still not set in my vote, if other people other than me and BlueyD contribute to the conversationg I might be willing to switch. | ||
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GG | ||
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Also me going away for 2.5 days and the activity kinda got sucked out of the town -_-. I was almost convinced BlueyD was telling the truth. I was going to put my vote on Nova while I was gone, just so he would have to post and re-analyse the situation when I got back. Too bad I didn't QQ. | ||
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I would like to note espeically, If you are town and are at risk of being lynched. Please don't give up. RoF and Seviro both did this. Post a good case of your best scum read, early enough that town can switch. Don't just OMGUS to save your own ass, on the next closest lynchie, pick your best read. Seviro's last post would been 5 hours earlier he might have saved himself. PS Thanks alot for the analysis | ||
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