A Game of Thrones Mafia - Page 2

On March 24 2012 16:31 Acrofales wrote:
I just woke up and am going out all day, but I just wanted a quick say.

Firstly, SLJ just soared sky-high in my scumometer. He was very hedgy about why he was voting for Layabout. In fact, I don't even know that there was ever a case against him, except for this:

and:

And that is the sum total for why SLJ started the layabout suspicion.

Another vote that jumped out was the last minute switch by MrZentor. His reasoning seems fatalistic and exactly the kind of reasoning a mobster would use to voteswitch at the last second, if needed to save his scumbuddy greymist.

Now I'm off. See you tonight.

On March 25 2012 02:49 Risen wrote:


What the dicks?

On March 25 2012 03:31 Acrofales wrote:
MrZentor, you're posting a cipher, and will later give us a magical key that will read whatever the hell you like? It is almost as transparent as WBG's RNG vote. Hey guys, if I F5 the RNG often enough it'll tell me to lynch myself, trololololol!

On March 25 2012 03:55 Acrofales wrote:
Okay. I'll start with my top scum targets of yesterday:

Mattchew
His posts last night actually sound to me like town, despite his trolling of me. Btw, I checked and my count was fairly right, despite being drunk. You didn't unvote your prior vote, so technically you were still voting for Oberyn. Not that it matters.

Reasons he is dropping on my scumometer: was trying to make sense of the clusterfuck of a lynch and seemed to be honestly concerned about the lynch target. I am neutral on his defense of Layabout, because it is really easy for mafia to defend a townie at the last minute: they know he's town and posting something in his favour is easy as hell.

I also like his final vote on Evantrees and regret my choice to try to get a lynch on Nicolas going just before I went to bed: that vote was wasted, and if I had chosen Evantrees, there's a good chance we would have lynched his useless ass, instead of Layabout who actually posted something useful from time to time.

VERDICT: suspicious, but no longer prime suspect (see below).

Gumshoe
Posted absolutely nothing during all of yesterday, but already had his vote on Layabout from the very start! It would be so fucking easy for mafia to organize a bandwagon and tell gumshoe to shut up, because he was for some reason flying completely under the radar. WTF. In fact, why the hell did we not lynch gumshoe yesterday? GRAFADSFADSAFGDFGA.

VERDICT: SCUM

Zealos
Was entirely absent all of yesterday. No change in opinion one way or the other.

VERDICT: suspicious.

Now for those who recently appeared on my radar.

Greymist: it is impossible to not take Greymist into account.
The problem I have with the case against Greymist is that it is almost exclusively built on derps misunderstanding sarcasm. This seems almost too easy for Mafia to jump on. I am therefore going to suggest a novel theory: Greymist is just as innocent as Layabout.
I guess that sorta nullifies my earlier post about MrZentor, because it cannot be that Greymist is innocent and MrZentor is trying to protect his scumbuddy Greymist. I previously had town reads on MrZentor and the only blip was his vote for Layabout. While I still think his reason for jumping on Layabout was bad, it's probably not a scumtell.

VERDICT: Greymist and MrZentor -- town.

SLJ:
Started the case against Layabout on wishywashy reasons. They then couldn't be bothered to hop off layabout when he was in danger, and are blaming sheeples for lynching him. This is either TERRIBLE town or TERRIBLE scum. Both seem highly out of character. My vote is actually to vig shot them and put Syllo at the very least out of his misery.

VERDICT: Suspicious (together with Alderan rapidly approaching Mattchew for 2nd place on the scumometer standings), but maybe just doesn't actually want to play the game and can't be fucked.

Alderan and Risen:

VERDICT: sheeples. Risen's posts today and yesterday seem okay, if replete with horrible analysis. Alderan was slightly dodgy to start with and his vote for Layabout did not improve my opinion for him. Risen is probably town and Alderan is competing with SLJ for the third place on the scumometer.

On March 25 2012 04:26 Acrofales wrote:
However, why do you read scum on Greymist?

On March 25 2012 07:49 Alderan wrote:


I read this in the voice of a 13 year old on Call of Duty.

On March 25 2012 08:03 wherebugsgo wrote:


Duuuuuuude don't be a killjoy, everyone can troll and be happy.

This IS Game of Trolls, anyway.

On March 25 2012 10:08 Risen wrote:
Also, wbg isn't going to leave his vote on me all day. Don't sheeple onto it if you're town, feel free to do so if you're mafia. When I flip as an eventuality of being lynched or shot at night everything I'm saying will be confirmed and hopefully town still has enough remaining to win. If you lynch acro tonight there will be 3 mafia left. If you lynch me tonight it will be 12 town to 4 mafia, going through a night with 2 kills will make it 10 town to 4 mafia, you'll lynch acro and make it 10 town to 3 mafia. Not a bad situation for town. This seems like it's a really tough game for mafia to win. Maybe b/c of wbg powers/trolling shenans it's more balanced than I can see.

On March 25 2012 10:46 Risen wrote:
Ok so mafia knows that acro is being lynched either today or tomorrow 100%. What are they going to do now? They can't just discredit me b/c they'll have to vote to lynch me, which will lead to acro lynch day3. They can't ignore me b/c then acro gets lynched today. Maybe they've already given up on acro living past today and just want to act as pro-town as possible since the discussion today will be entirely focused on whether I'm lying or not

If it's decided I'm lying, then I'm lynched and acro is gone tomorrow so all the discussion tomorrow will be useless as well, if it's decided I'm telling the truth acro is lynched today and tomorrow brings fresh discussion. Or the case I'm not bringing up because it's impossible, acro flips town and I'm therefor mafia and discussion today is pointless and discussion tomorrow is pointless as I'm the obvious lynch.

Therefor, I think the best possible outcome for us is lynching acro today. When he flips mafia I'm confirmed town and we're happy as shit and in a really good spot. (Even if he flips town it gives you a free mafia lynch tomorrow, again this won't happen but town is still in a pretty damn decent position)

Sums up any input I'll have today I think. Time for me to go to my movie, I'll be back later folks.

On March 25 2012 11:36 Mattchew wrote:
I'm down with ignoring risen wbg acro And mr zentos completely

On March 22 2012 01:50 DoYouHas wrote:
Acrofales reads exactly like newb scum to me from his first posts. His first post reads as already being defensive to me:


And then he pulls an OMGUS on 2 different people in a very short period of time.

##Vote: Acrofales

Gumshoe, wake up and read day1 carefully. We already know who Littlefinger is 100%. It is given information. Your posts are yet to actually be relevant to the game.

On March 22 2012 08:33 DoYouHas wrote:


1. No, not really. Acro's initial posts came off as scummy for reasons I've already mentioned. His posts since have not cleared him in my eyes but they are a big step up from his starting posts. I've left my vote on him because I think he deserves to be under pressure and that pressure produced decent posts from him. Of course, now that I have explained this my vote means very little.

2. I don't like the way mattchew is posting. It is ignoring the fact that not only does he have to prove to himself that he is right, he has to prove to all of us that he is right. His style is alienating people who might agree with him which inherently reduces the value of his posts. You will notice that I am ignoring whether he is right/wrong, scum/town. That is because I don't know. In that last game I was in with him, SNMM7, he had a very similar style and was town. It was equally unhelpful then. So on one hand his meta suggests to me townie, but I find his style to be anti-town.

3. Greymist has pretty clearly aligned himself against Gum/Matt, and for Acro. He has also called BS on a number of things that I think deserved it. Honestly, I expect more from him (also, risk.nuke). Right now I have a null read, but if his trend of small posts continues that will move towards a scum read.

4. I'm going to hold off on that list for a bit. Partially so I can have more time to figure it out, and partially so I can spend more time forming my suspicions and less time defending them.

On March 23 2012 08:40 DoYouHas wrote:
First off, we should stop talking about gumshoe like he is a noob, or that he is bad. He is neither. This is like his 4-5th game and in the games I have played with him he has shown he can make good analysis as well as be devious. At some point I draw the line and hold him accountable for what he says early on in a game in spite of his reckless streak. That being said, I do lean town for him currently. I just wanted to point out that, to me, it was not bad play from Grey to push gumshoe for his highly questionable early game.

Also, I think Alderan is scum. More on this soon, I'll get to writing up my case.

##Unvote: Oberyn
##Vote: Alderan

On March 23 2012 10:31 DoYouHas wrote:
Why we should lynch Alderan today.

First, what triggered my suspicion of him.

Last game (NMMIV) Alderan blamed himself for a fair bit of the loss, citing his lack of activity as what he regretted most:

I would think that this loss would be at the forefront of Alderan's thoughts this game and since he identified his activity as a major problem, I have been surprised at how passive Alderan has been so far in this game. This raised my suspicion.

This suspicion was confirmed when very quickly after gumshoe posts his wall of text Alderan jumps into the thread to defend himself after having been absent for a while. This read to me as active lurking from Alderan. Especially since Alderan stated in his first post: So, Alderan has been around in some capacity at all times, yet his filter is a little bit pitiful to read.

---

Alderan's posting this game has been an odd mix of stirring the pot and trying to cool the thread off.

In regards to Acrofales, he first cools, then stirs, then defends. The post I will draw your attention to here is this one.

He believes that Acro's change in attitude is the result of being reprimanded by a scumteam, but he doesn't cite what specifically in those posts made him draw that conclusion. What I find strange is that Acro's follow up posts which caused many people to back off are used by Alderan as a reason to be more suspicious. And yet after this post he attacks Mattchew for pursuing a shaky case against Acro, then ends up defending Acro after Samuel labels him as obvious lynchbait.

This whole sequence makes me think Alderan isn't actually scumhunting, just stirring the pot while trying to be on the 'right' side of early conflicts.


In regards to Gumshoe he stirs, cools, and becomes falsely ambivalent. It is the false ambivalence that bothers me here. Alderan's more recent posting has revealed that he has thought gumshoe is town for a while now, and that read is the basis of his suspicion of Greymist. He stated repeatedly that he wanted to wait for gumshoe to post before posting his case on Greymist, but I think this is fundamentally flawed. The core of his case (as I read it) is that Greymist is too veteran to fall for the clear lynchbait of gumshoe if he wasn't mafia. This case was clearly formed before gumshoe came back, and I am at a loss as to why Alderan needed to wait until gumshoe came back to post it. The case works under the assumption that gumshoe is town, and since Alderan is making a case with that assumption, he is biased in favor of gumshoe. Meaning that unless gumshoe came back with posts that looked completely scummy (very unlikely) Alderan's points against Greymist would hold the same value regardless of when he posted them. Then if gumshoe did come back with very scummy posts, it would be easy to recant his attacks on Greymist. So why wait? I think Alderan was playing super safe. Avoiding catching flak for posting a town read on gumshoe before gum came back. This also made Alderan's relative inactivity more palatable because he had already explained he was waiting for gumshoe before he posted more content.


Alderan has spread suspicion around on a number of players, but does not actually push any of them. Lyter, Mattchew, Zealos, and yes, even Greymist.

Lyter:
Mattchew:
Zealos:
Greymist:

Lots of suspicion, but no real attempts to push any of them.

---

TLDR: Alderan's meta from NMMIV suggests that he would be more active and proactive this game than he has been. Alderan's first post and quick response to Gumshoe's points against him imply active lurking, which I see as scummy. The way Alderan dealt with gumshoe and Greymist is strange. Alderan's play has been largely passive and safe, but he still manages to throw out plenty of suspicion. Alderan's lack of pushing his suspicions shows me a reluctance to take the responsibility and attention that pushing a lynch would garner him.

Let's lynch us an Alderan

On March 24 2012 07:03 DoYouHas wrote:
I'm willing to switch over to evantrees for today. He is the one being pushed I can support the most aside from Alderan. His early banter and focus on WBG, his unjustified vote on Mattchew, his lurking, and his acknowledging that he has been useless without showing a desire to change all make him a decent lynch choice for today.

##Unvote: Alderan
##Vote: evantrees

On March 24 2012 09:18 DoYouHas wrote:
-_-, Stop moaning about the mislynch, use the information to work out who was truly scum day1.

On March 25 2012 08:36 DoYouHas wrote:
I have cooled my jets a bit towards Alderan and I now believe that risk.nuke is SCUM (note the capitals).

I wanted to get that out before the day post. I'll expand on it later, but other things are getting in my way of devoting a chunk of time to case building until I get the day post for SNMMIX out there. I'll be sure to finish it before bed tonight, so stay tuned.

Some if-then statements to note.

If risk.nuke is scum then Greymist is likely town.
If Greymist is scum then gumshoe is likely town.

On March 26 2012 03:51 Acrofales wrote:
He did not even need me to react, looking at his D1 posts this was perfectly planned. It just seems I played right into his hands by doing so.

Okay, so Risen is SCUM. My vote today is in the right place. Now what can we learn about last night's kills?

Firstly, SLJ never visited Evantrees like he claimed he would.

However, I guess he might've been blocked. I am inclined to think both kills are mafia hits, because they have the same MO. I like MrZentor's analysis of DoYouHas' death, so I'll try my hand at SLJ.

On March 26 2012 04:59 chaoser wrote:
Doesn't matter, acro. due to the situation risen has created, the only way out is if both of you get lynched/shot. Anything else leaves too much WIFOM. Unless something crazy comes up, this is the most beneficial play. At the very least we should be getting one scum.

On March 26 2012 09:47 Alderan wrote:
Been running around like a chicken with my head cut off today with work.

I have a couple more hours to tie up some loose ends and I'll catch up on the past 5 pages.

On March 26 2012 10:19 MrZentor wrote:


I think you're scum.

How do you feel about that?

On March 28 2012 01:21 Jitsu wrote:
Also, real-life LOL at people who think I can sit down and read 50+ pages of a thread in one sitting after joining the game 12 hours ago when I worked last night.

Shit is jokes.