Mr. Wiggles Mini Mafia II

On March 03 2012 07:36 Snarfs wrote:
##Vote Paperscraps

I've noted the defence of Paper, namely that posting short lists of players with little analysis is something he just does. That being said, something else he does is back up his votes with some reasoning. So far, his reasoning for voting deconduo is:



Furthermore, Paperscraps' vote for deconduo came shortly after Palmar was grilling him, making him a seemingly easier target to jump on. The combination of the lack of reasoning and the fact that Palmar was grilling dec makes me think that Paper was trying to hop on a wagon while it was forming.

On March 03 2012 03:58 Jackal58 wrote:
misder and Papaerscraps both appear to be doing an omgus vote on Decon.

Why do you guys think Decon is scummy?

On March 03 2012 04:06 deconduo wrote:




Please explain how could you know my reads were bad if you are town?

We lynch Misder today and Paper tomorrow. I had a look at Pandain's filter and its nothing as bad as these two.

On March 02 2012 20:38 Bluelightz wrote:
I do agree that there is an SK here.

---

I Believe Paperscraps is scum.

Let's look at his posts.




The part I italiced is just fluff. The other part of this post is just voicing his opinion



List = Useless, he didnt even provide reasons for why X is town, his reason for voting deconduo, I don't agree how reads can be horrible unless you know other people's alignment.



Fixed his vote, his list is not useless this time.

and.........

No more posts! Also, he is not providing anything useful to town and not contributing to the discussion.

So, ##Vote: Paperscraps

On March 02 2012 09:19 deconduo wrote:
Scumslip much? I might have bad reads, but the only way you could know they were bad is if you're scum. Especially seeing as neither read was about you.

On March 04 2012 13:29 Pandain wrote:
AKCT visited rhtheschworz last night.

On March 05 2012 07:44 Probulous wrote:


What use does that answer provide to town? The only possible thing I can think of is that he didn't believe Pandain and was using this as a way of getting him to possibly slip up. Pandain had announced his suspicion of AKCT so it makes sense for him to follow him. I don't see why watching RG would necessarily be more likely. As I previously stated it was obvious that RG claims were bogus from a simple read of his filter.

Even if you disregard the above, why ask? I read guilty concience here. Mafia shot RG and wanted to find out if they had been caught. If Pandain claims he tracked AKCT, no harm done. If he claims he watched RG they can counterclaim because they know they were the one's who were shot RG. Thus Pandain was either lying or he knows they are scum. They know that he knows. Thus the only possible way out is to counterclaim as soon as possible with more information.

It is a scummy scummy question.

##vote Adam4167

On March 05 2012 07:40 deconduo wrote:


You do realise this doesn't work. The ploy tells us nothing about his alignment except that he probably didn't kill RG. Unless he actually did visit rg last night, he would know you are lying. All you've done is waste a day.

##Unvote

On March 05 2012 08:41 deconduo wrote:


Hi again mister tunnel.

On March 06 2012 01:06 sandroba wrote:
I'm busy as fuck right now and I'm already working towards being replaced. I'm veteran. I got shot last night. That's all the info I have good luck.

On March 06 2012 15:33 Snarfs wrote:
The town now needs something to discuss. With Sandroba gone, everyone should go back and reread the thread with his flip in mind (obvious, I know). Come up with some different conclusions. We have almost 3 days to discuss now (except for one or maybe two of us *sad face). I have done this and here is what I have come up with (I've spoilered the longer quotes):

Why Paperscraps should be lynched tomorrow:

To start off the game, we have a couple of not so awesome posts:



I point out the fact that his vote lacked any sort of his usual reasoning (something he still hasn't provided), and then add that it came after Palmar was hassling dec.

"Usual reasoning". Can you be more clear on what you think this is?

Are you trying to imply that my read came solely from the Palmar/Deconduo exchange?

Here is his reply:

+ Show Spoiler +

What does Paper focus on? He focuses first on attacking my credibility: Calling the irony in my post laughable and calling my post hypocritical. Then, he gives a short one-liner explaining his vote ("thought his reads were off base"), then justifying a reason for keeping it ("his reaction to my vote seemed overdone").

You are using the same meta on me in two different ways. You are saying that my posting makes me town, because that is how I played in werewolves mafia. Then you say that my posting makes me scum, because it differs from my posting in my newbie mafia game. I have been town in every mafia game I have played on teamliquid so far.

For reference, dec's response was this:

+ Show Spoiler +

Is that really an unreasonable response given the accusation? No, it isn't.
At the end of the above quote, Paperscraps again attacks my credibility, saying my last point makes no sense at all. Reread the thread. Palmar starts calling out deconduo for a bad read. Paperscraps jumps in with a vote and his reasoning is that deconduo's reads are bad. I make the connection. Makes sense.

So how do we know anyone is anything when we are town? Certain towntells are obvious and Deconduo is either missing them or over looking them. Deconduo's response is loaded, because Deconduo is saying that the only way I can know his reads are bad is if I am scum. I could use this argument against you right now, saying that you read is horrible, because you think I am scum, when I am town. Just because his reads were on other people, doesn't mean I can't deem them bad. I can't know with 100% certainty if they are wrong or not, but mafia is a game of induction and deduction.

Then we see this:

Funny, he provided more reasoning for voting than Paperscraps did for his vote. Good attempt at discrediting him though.

Quality > quantity. Bluelightz says a lot of things, but there is really no substance behind anything he says.


At this point, Dec has mentioned Paper in two one-liners this game, the worst of which is to say "We lynch Misder today and Paper tomorrow. I had a look at Pandain's filter and its nothing as bad as these two." Hardly OMGUS when you consider that up until this point, Paper's filter is indeed pretty bad.

Not sure, what you are trying to get at here. You are saying that my voting of Decon is unjustified. Then Decon foses me with very little reasoning and that isn't OMGUS? Double standard.

Followed by some defending of himself:

+ Show Spoiler +

This part makes sense: Paper thinks Decon's reads are bad because he's getting town reads from the people Decon is calling scum.
This part doesn't: Decon has 2 bad reads a day into the game; therefore, he's scum.
Good analysis of Pandain and Palmar as well. Note who he claims who is playing more town and who might be scum; this might be important later.

Deconduo's read coupled with his reaction to my fos is what made me think he is scum

Next up, Paper attempts to defend himself. Nothing really to gather from here, except for the fact that Jackal is one of his top two scum at this point. Jackal who had 8 posts up until that point, none of which could possibly be considered either pro-town or anti-town. However, Jackal did mention that he was okay with lynching Paperscraps.

+ Show Spoiler +

Next, Paper tries to get rg to claim Vig.

At this point my read on rg was either Veteran trying to draw fire, or SK without a clue as to what he was doing. Am I going to try and get rg to claim his blue role though? No. Is any townie going to try and get rg to claim his blue role? No. So why is Paper trying to get him to claim his blue role?

LOL. Ok let me explain something to you here. rg was soft claiming Vig pretty hard. Why would someone do this? THEY WANT TO GET SHOT. Ok, so now that we all understand that, we have to try and decipher if the claim seems legit or not. rg was being pretty obvious and blunt about it. My assumption was that he was either a Vet or vanilla townie trying to take one for the team. How can I help rg get shot then? Try and make people believe that I think he is a real vig. (hint hint I really didn't think this) Thus, rg's plan worked out perfectly. I may have even helped.

Next up we see a great example of how to make a meaningful looking post without actually posting anything, followed by defending a scum buddy:

A) We can all see who voted Misder. Saying that at least one of them has to be scum? A terrible assumption. 3 out of 13 people (not including Misder himself). And at least one of them has to be scum? Hardly.

Misder was town. People voting him are stupid or mafia/sk

B) Summarizes Deconduo and Palmar's chat for us. Ends with a slightly weaker read on Dec. Now he's only "leaning towards Decon being scum". What happened there?

I was always leaning towards Decon being scum. I don't understand your implication.

C) Calls Jackal out for not posting much. Fluff.

Yeah definite fluff. Trying to get someone to be more active, help scumhunt and all that jazz. /sarcasm

D) More fluff about AKCT

Honestly this analysis on AKCT holds the same weight as people's read on Sandroba. Sandroba says he is too busy to post. AKCT says he is too drunk to post or post anything coherent. Maybe scum is playing the afk/lurk/not care game.

E)Now this is very interesting. Agrees that Sandroba is the easy lynch. Agrees that he's been posting nothing. Disagrees with Sandroba's read (sounds familiar to the Decon case). Then spends 4 sentences convincing himself that Sandroba is a bored vanilla townie? Not looking so good given Sandroba flipped scum.

I am not infallible. Honestly though I would be raging pretty hard if I were mafia this game, because Sandroba played horribly.

Next up we see Paper claim that he thinks Sandroba is SK and is claiming a fake hit.

Then, 9 hours later, his opinion is changed.

And finally, this beauty:

Followed by this:

Oh, and this:

To recap, first he states Sandroba is an SK with a fake claim. Then, he states Sandroba is not worth lynching. Then, he is worth lynching (after votes are 4-2 Sandroba over Bluelightz, with a single vote on Pandain, AKCT, Adam and his own on Dec). Then, the "lynch on Sandroba doesn't feel right".

The bandwagon on Sandroba went up very quickly and Sandroba was very scummy, that it was almost too easy. Like seriously I called it the night before how easy it would be to lynch Sandroba. So, I second guess myself and look bad. Not voting with the majoity doesn't make me scum. If I were scum, I would have just bussed Sandroba to make myself look town. See the contrast here? Scum obviously bussed Sandroba.

Now, you should all compare Paperscraps' posting to his previous games where he was town. The contrast is frightening.

Look at my last game in werewolves mafia. I have played the same. You are basing your meta off my game in newbie mafia, I don't play like that anymore with big long analytic posts, because they are unnecessary and anyone can contort peoples words to whatever they like. Just as you have done above.

There we have such great gems as:


And he can be reasoned with and isn't afraid to change is vote:


Finally, he has the ability to perform good analysis:
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=299955&currentpage=46#911

Does this look like the same Paperscraps? It certainly doesn't to me.

Let me bring up some points to you.
1. I have rolled town every game in tl mafia, thus you have no scum play to read.
2. You are using proof by contradiction off my town meta to call me scum. My town play has been evolving since newbie mafia, so this isn't valid.
3. I have played pretty similar to my last game in werewolves mafia, where my reads were decent when it came to finding scum. If you want to use meta to read me then use that.

And THAT is why Paperscraps is scum, and should be lynched tomorrow.

On March 06 2012 09:41 Probulous wrote:




Paper, decon doesn't read as scum to me. Your case was that he was pushing bad cases. Well when it was clear they weren't happening (me) he dropped it. That could be scum or town. Misder disappeared and never responded to anything so it would be monumentally stupid of decon to remove his vote without something to explain it. I mean if Misder could get off by just not saying anything then we would never lynch mafia. He followed through with his case and was wrong. At least he was clear on his intention to lynch Misder.

Compare that with Toast's actions. He chose to not to vote for his "SK" and let a townie swing. His actions are far more scummy than decon. Sandroba has been actively useless (is there such a thing?). He is around and posts enough to avoid the modkill but doesn't bother to add anything of use.

Is there anything more to your case than his bad reads?

On March 07 2012 04:04 Snarfs wrote:
By usual reasoning, I am referring to previous games where you've actually provided good reasons for going after someone. Whether you're right or wrong makes no difference, it is in town's best interest for people to back up their votes with good reasoning so that we can pull the bullshit away from the truth. If you're not going to back up your vote with good, logical reasoning, or at least a decent attempt at it, then I can only assume that you don't have a good reason and therefore are scum.

I am not implying, I am inferring. I am inferring that because of what I just wrote: You hadn't provided good reasons for your vote. If you still think your reasons for voting Deconduo the first time, and then reaffirming your vote were good, then we will have to agree to disagree.

I did not think werewolves was a good game to study because it utilized IRC a lot. Much of the discussion for that game appeared to have taken place outside of the forum.
Also, I do not say anywhere that this post makes you town, nor do I compare it to werewolves mafia. You are putting words in my mouth in an attempt to either discredit me or make yourself look better. Focus on what I actually say.

We know from logic and reasoning as you say at the end of this paragraph. Your argument lacked both and if you were to use the same argument against me, it would again lack both.
To clarify, this is good logic:
Deconduo thinks Probulous and Misder are scum
Probulous and Misder are both town (assuming Prob at this point)
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Therefore, Deconduo's reasoning for thinking Probulous and Misder are scum is bad

This is not good logic:
Deconduo's reasoning for thinking Probulous and Misder are scum is bad
-----------------------------------------------------
Therefore, Deconduo is scum

You mentioned deduction. Show me how you made this argument. I've taken logic and philosophy courses, I'll be happy to admit that I'm wrong when you show me what I'm missing.

I don't think he was soft claiming. I think he was slapping us in the face with the fact that he had killing power. Why would he do this if he was actually a vig? I don't think anyone would think he's actually a vig at that point. But you know who would want to make sure? Mafia.

Misder was contributing nothing and could easily have garnered 3 out of 13 votes without any of them being Mafia. Why would you discount the possibility that there were no mafia on him?

My implication was this: First you are certain Decon is scum. Now you are only leaning towards him being scum. If this is false, please correct me.

I don't think you can count calling out inactive people as a contribution either way.

I would like to hear more about why you still thought Decon was a better vote than Sandroba day 1. Surely you thought that Misder was town based on Deconduo's horrible read. That gave you the chance at the end of Day 1 of lynching Sandroba instead. My problem here is that if Sandroba has bad reads and is posting nothing, you assume he's a bored townie. If Decon has bad reads and is posting nothing, you assume he's scum. I can't make a good argument against you for why you left your vote on Deconduo instead of Sandroba without making any assumptions; but it would certainly help your case if you could explain it to me (preferably without taking it personally, but that's up to you).

Or maybe you would switch your vote so that later you can say that if you were scum, you would have just bussed Sandroba to make yourself look town. I don't know that I can argue with you here, scum could do either, always looking to get one step ahead of town in situations like this.

I'll reiterate that much of werewolves appeared to be played in IRC. Also, I'll give you that you don't make big long analytic posts anymore. That's fine. But for the sake of the town, please don't stop giving good, logical reasoning for your votes! If you really are town, then you've certainly wasted a lot of my time by acting scummy.

What happened to this Paperscraps?


Or this one?


Or this one?

Just because you don't make big long analytic posts anymore doesn't mean you're throwing logic and reasoning completely out the window. Only scum would do that because they really have no logic or reasoning to back their suspicions.

If this is your town play "evolving" then you should really reconsider what your end goal is.

On March 07 2012 06:46 Probulous wrote:


I don't think you thought your case through very well. You have seven points all of which could come from a town or mafia agenda. What is with the bolded bit?

On March 07 2012 06:46 Probulous wrote:
As for this


I've explained my reasoning why I think the shot was real. Why would a mafia sandroba claim veteran with such a weak claim? If he wanted to get credit for it he would have celebrated the shot, make it clear to everyone he was targeted. Instead he responds to something else and then casually mentions the fact. It makes sense that he was shot given his reaction to it. This means scum have a medic and we have a SK. Vig would have claimed by now.

On March 07 2012 07:18 Snarfs wrote:

Meh, I don't think anything was lost here. I had fun typing it up if nothing else.

So which of these is the most scummy: Decon, Adam, Pandain, other?

On March 07 2012 12:02 Paperscraps wrote:
I shot Jackal58.

On March 07 2012 16:47 Probulous wrote:


Paper why did you shoot last night? Here is why I ask. You were on people's scum list, it was clear that there were other targets far more likely to get shot than you. You could have saved your shot and pushed Jackal today for more information. You hardly pressured him at all. Yes he was lurking but he always lurks. As for why you would claim the shot, to clear your name. You just did it wrong. I honestly don't know what to make of your claim. If you had claimed before the deadline and had presented a case before night ended I would trust it but now well it is hard to believe.

More importantly what is your opinion of Adam and his case on me?

On March 07 2012 16:57 Probulous wrote:


So someone was double-stacked last night then? You claim a shot, mafia obviously shoot and SK shoots. No-one else has claimed a shot so someone must have been double-stacked. After last night there is less evidence for a SK.

Night 1 sandroba claims a hit and turns out to be scum. Could be a gambit could be a SK with a mafia medic protect. Still only 1 confirmed KP.

Night 2 Palmar and Jackal shot. You claim a shot as a Vig. If this is true then surely mafia made the other hit. To me it seems more likely there is no SK than the SK double-stacked either yours or the mafia's hit. Still only one confirmed KP.

Now of course if you are lying about being a vig then it makes sense that there is a SK to account for the second KP.

On March 07 2012 20:08 Probulous wrote:
Decon do you think it likely we have both a watcher and a tracker? Seems a stretch to me but could be true. That would give us a watcher, tracker and medic(probably). If you're assuming a SK too that is a lot of power roles in such a small setup but I guess they are more weak than usual.

I agree that Paper's decision to shoot Jackal over you needs explaining. Makes sense from a mafia point of view to keep you around if they think they can lynch you. I still think Adam is a better bet for today's lynch.

From phone

On March 08 2012 12:55 Adam4167 wrote:
After rereading the thread with no assumptions i still get back to where I was before, a nagging feeling that Prob will flip red. That's my read, take it or leave it. If you are red Prob, then you've done a great job of convincing everyone else that you're town, so much so that I'd say this game is probably unrecoverable.

Upon second reading assuming Prob is town, it is probably the best move to kill Bluelightz. Toast is exactly right, he could flip either way, hes a permanent null read for me, but via process of elimination, he looks good to die. I don't want to lynch Pandain, Paperscraps, Snarfs, TheToast or Probulous (still operating under the assumption that he is town) which leaves me with Bluelightz, deconduo and AKCT.

On March 08 2012 22:07 Adam4167 wrote:



OK, I put to you a hypothetical. What direction do you plan on going tomorrow after I flip town? Obviously if I flip scum, you're going to want to go after bluelightz, but humor me for a minute and tell me what happens when I flip town.

On March 09 2012 12:05 Pandain wrote:
If we have a tracker, track Paper.

If we have a medic, protect decondou or me.

On March 09 2012 12:21 Pandain wrote:
I beileve you are SK.
ACKT is scum, bluelightz might be.

On March 09 2012 20:18 deconduo wrote:
Any medic that isn't on probulous is an idiot.

On March 10 2012 08:15 Pandain wrote:
I'm the only guy who pushes against lynching adam, and you guys suspect me more.

Oh my god........


I don't even know how paper scraps thinks that I have to be blue.