EPTOn March 07 2012 16:59 Paperscraps wrote:
Don't forget we could have had medic saves!
Don't forget we could have had medic saves!
No-one has claimed an extra shot? Simpler to assume there was no shot until someone does.
Mr. Wiggles Mini Mafia II - Page 30
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Probulous
Australia3894 Posts
No-one has claimed an extra shot? Simpler to assume there was no shot until someone does. | ||
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Paperscraps
United States639 Posts
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Probulous
Australia3894 Posts
Simpler to just assume that there is no extra kill point until someone claims. | ||
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Paperscraps
United States639 Posts
1. Probulous is play very pro-town. I read his filter and can't find any faults 2. Adam's case against Probulous was just him trying to deflect attention onto Pandain, who I read as town at the moment. | ||
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Probulous
Australia3894 Posts
On March 02 2012 19:59 Probulous wrote: Jackal given you said this in Mafia L Would you shoot Sandroba if you had a gun this game. I agree with Palmar that he has been hiding which is scummy as hell. His case on Pandain is insubstantial and he isn't here. I have never played with him but since Jackal has a history of recognising Sandroba's scum, I think your opinion here would be useful. On March 03 2012 06:04 Probulous wrote: Sandroba, you're not helping yourself. The quote from Jackal in L corresponds very well to your current play. This is why I want Jackal's opinion. He shot you then, would he shoot you now? Toast is right to call you out for lack of contribution. Your response enforces his case. ##vote Sandroba On March 03 2012 11:11 Probulous wrote: Adam I am not sheeping Palmar. You hadn't produced anything of note until recently. Sandrona is actively lurking and seemingly has no interest in this game. When he is town he has shown skill in putting together decent cases. He isn't even bothering to try this game. He played like this L where he was scum. Add those together and you get mafia. This is for voting for sandroba Day 1. I was the second vote on sandroba after Palmar. If you have any questions about this, ask. On March 06 2012 08:12 Probulous wrote: I don't know why you say there is no resistance to him being lynched. Toast is screaming blue murder that you are scum. If my team is correct then blue is soft-bussing which is unsurprising. The way I see it these are the possible explanations for Sandroba "hit" Fake Claim
The implications of this are that there may not be a SK. The problem with the fake claim is that the benefit for him is minimal. The way he claimed makes him look less like a veteran than someone who got medic saved and no town medic would save him. I believe he was shot. Real Claim
The issue I have with the veteran claim is the manner in which he claimed it. Most vets celebrate when they get shot, they have achieved their aim. His was a BTW sort of admission. Combined with his lurky play I don't believe his vet claim. That leaves SK or mafia. I don't agree with Pandain that he isn't being defended. Toast is pretty vehement that Pandain is scum. Chainsaw much? A Sandroba lynch will confirm the existence of a Serial Killer if he flips Veteran (unlikely). If he flips scum we celebrate and we know they have a medic. If he flips SK we have removed a potential issue for town. He isn't playing well and I would guess would probably shoot town before he shoots scum. On March 06 2012 08:28 Probulous wrote: You reasoning rests of two assumptions
The first can only be confirmed by a flip. The second is big. He was scummy since Day 1 and was almost lynched. Then he was shot overnight. Despite all this he has not attempted to provide any analysis at all. Anyone straight up defending him would have to use really weird logic or a chainsaw defense. Surely it is better to let him swing and waste town's time on someone who is clearly not town. Plus they can gain a little cred for his flip and can hide amongst the rest of the votes. I don't see why this is unlikely. If he is mafia they have a medic and he clearly isn't it (he can't protect himself). This is my reasoning for my vote Day 2. I hope it is clear. I even persuaded Pandain to drop the idea of tracking sandroba instead of lynching him (or at least tried to). You see all other actions in this game can normally be explained from both a mafia or town point of view. It is just that normally one is more believable than the other. Does my voting and explanations make more sense from a town or mafia perspective. Voting is the ultimate power given to everyone, it is what separates the town from the mafia. I'll be showing you Adam's record next. | ||
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Probulous
Australia3894 Posts
On March 02 2012 12:58 Adam4167 wrote: I find Palmar interesting, as I do in every one of our games. I think his exchange with you from yesterday was an exercise in stating the obvious, something I don't expect from him. As I said to him yesterday, everything he was stating was stuff that townies should already be doing and the fact that he needed to stress it across 4 posts shows that he is either just talking for the sake of putting words on a page, or he has no faith in this town. Right now, I am leaning towards he is not town On March 03 2012 08:27 Adam4167 wrote: These reads are only a fraction better then the list Misder posted, useless and effortless. You label me as scum yet you never follow it up. Why aren't you pressing me to try and find out my alignment if you think I could be 'scummer'. I think its because you have zero interest in finding scum. Look at his town play: Hammer Mini Mafia He is aggressive, he presses his reads. He doesn't give a shit what the rest of the town is doing. Contrast that with what we've seen so far this game. ##Vote Palmar These are his reasons for voting for Palmar Day 1. Whilst this is alright it ignores the fact that Palmar also usually dies night 1. Palmar would kill me for this but I would rather keep him around for Day 2 unless he has done something really stupid. Anyway, this vote is fine given he didn't think Sandroba or Misder was scum and made that clear before he voted. On March 06 2012 08:55 Adam4167 wrote: I was occupied with life events yesterday, hence my inactivity for a large portion of it. Its far too late in the day to start pushing another case. Id like to see a resolution to this night-hit situation. ##Vote sandroba On March 06 2012 11:38 Adam4167 wrote: I'm posting from my phone so I can't quote stuff. Prob, I already stated why I'm on the sandroba lynch in that post. It's too late in the day for me to push the cases I want to push, so I'm bandwagon voting on sandroba to try and get a better grasp on what happened last night. I like other lynches better but convincing at least 4 people to move off of sandroba is something that would take more time then we had when I voted. It's a shit vote and I know it, but my vote going anywhere else is just as shit, considering the current vote tally. As far as I can tell he voted for sandroba because it was easy. Here is my response On March 06 2012 11:46 Probulous wrote: Well this is completely illogical. Your last sentence implies that sandroba is getting lynched regardless of your vote. The rest of your post suggests you want a conclusion to the night hit. Well combining those would suggest that you will get that conclusion regardless of how you vote. In this situation it would make sense to stick with your reads. If people switch to your reads then great, if not you get clarification on the hit. Either way it looks like you don't believe he is scum, so why vote for him? You're taking the easy way out and I don't like it. Town Adam doesn't do things the easy way. If you really think I am more likely to be scum than Adam you have rocks in your head. I am town, he is not. Vote for Adam. | ||
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deconduo
Ireland4122 Posts
-Probulous is definitely town, amd he's trying to push a case against him. -Defended Sandroba Day 2 -Voted Sandroba when there was no chance to save him. -Considered Palmar confirmed town Night 2, then Palmar dies. -Jackal read him as scum. Now obviously Jackal isn't infallible, but he did flip town and he's a decent enough scumhunter. Its certainly worth considering his opinion. Conclusion: Scum Paper: -Paper has been tunelling me since Day 1. He says he's convinced I'm scum -He thinks Jackal is scum by association -He doesn't shoot me Night 1 -He doesn't shoot me Night 2 -He shoots Jackal Night 2 -He claims the kill AFTER the day post This makes absolutely no sense to me. If he is a vig, why not shoot me? Why claim after the day post instead of before? If he is scum/SK, why claim the kill? Given the missing KP, I'm inclined to think Paper is SK, and was worried about being tracked. Jackal was a blue read for me, which would explain why Paper would go after him. When none of the bodies flipped Tracker, he claimed the shot figuring if he didn't he'd lynched on the spot if he had been tracked. Its a bit of a stretch, but I can't see anything else that makes more sense. It also explains why he would wait for the day post. Conclusion: SK I'm gonna go over Palmar's post in Day 2 to see if he breadcrumbed anything. Hopefully if he did it isn't too obscure. Back in couple of hours. | ||
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Probulous
Australia3894 Posts
I agree that Paper's decision to shoot Jackal over you needs explaining. Makes sense from a mafia point of view to keep you around if they think they can lynch you. I still think Adam is a better bet for today's lynch. From phone | ||
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deconduo
Ireland4122 Posts
On March 07 2012 20:08 Probulous wrote: Decon do you think it likely we have both a watcher and a tracker? Seems a stretch to me but could be true. That would give us a watcher, tracker and medic(probably). If you're assuming a SK too that is a lot of power roles in such a small setup but I guess they are more weak than usual. I agree that Paper's decision to shoot Jackal over you needs explaining. Makes sense from a mafia point of view to keep you around if they think they can lynch you. I still think Adam is a better bet for today's lynch. From phone In most setups like this the watcher functions as a medic role rather than detective. So you'd have a Tracker+Watcher or Tracker+Medic. That way if the Tracker claims, he can be protected by the Medic or Watcher. If mafia try to kill him he either gets saved or the killer gets seen by the Watcher. I don't think its a stretch to think we'd have a Tracker + Watcher but no medic. However, what I think doesn't really matter, its what Paper thought at the day post. He claimed exactly one minute after the post, so he didn't have time to think about his decision. He was obviously waiting for something, and was going base his claim on the contents of the day post. At this point I think lynching Paper might be a better choice. If he is SK: -We drop anti-town KP by 1 guaranteed. -It removes any kingmaker scenarios. -Scum are down one member already. | ||
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Bluelightz
Indonesia2463 Posts
First, I posted in Kaller Game because it was easier :p and thinking up a defense isnt easy when you have to leave for school soon :3 Day 1, I voted for rgTheSchworz because I believed he had the highest chance of flipping so called "scum", I botched up the sentence for voting by saying "scum" and not "third party" like I suspected him to be. I admit, I have been providing excuses for most of the time because im at school for most of the time of the day. And, I start posting at this ridiculous time because I went like School -> Pick-Up Dad -> Pick-Up Mom -> Dinner at a restaurant -> now Reading filters nao to look for anything interesting. | ||
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TheToast
United States4808 Posts
On March 07 2012 23:00 Bluelightz wrote: Okay guys im here, I'll explain a few things before my pitiful defense....... First, I posted in Kaller Game because it was easier :p and thinking up a defense isnt easy when you have to leave for school soon :3 Um.... what? The really stupid thing is, I've seen you post dumber things in games where you turned out to be town. I don't know what the hell your alignment is this game but at this point your just making things worse.... On March 07 2012 16:21 Paperscraps wrote: @Pandain: Why would I claim I shot Jackal if I was scum? There is no motivation as scum to do this. Unless I was tracked or something, in which I would have to cc of course. I really don't get your logic here. hmmm Q: If a vig takes a shot and the target is protected by a medic, does the vig get that shot back? That is, can they then hit another target? Just thinking about Sandro's claim and trying to determine whether or not an SK exists in this game. | ||
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Bluelightz
Indonesia2463 Posts
 And your question I think that the vig wastes his shot. | ||
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Mr. Wiggles
Canada5894 Posts
On March 07 2012 23:24 TheToast wrote: Um.... what? The really stupid thing is, I've seen you post dumber things in games where you turned out to be town. I don't know what the hell your alignment is this game but at this point your just making things worse.... hmmm Q: If a vig takes a shot and the target is protected by a medic, does the vig get that shot back? That is, can they then hit another target? Just thinking about Sandro's claim and trying to determine whether or not an SK exists in this game. If a target is protected by a medic, and a vig shoots them, the medic protection absorbs the shot. They cannot shoot another target. | ||
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Bluelightz
Indonesia2463 Posts
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TheToast
United States4808 Posts
On March 07 2012 23:48 Mr. Wiggles wrote: If a target is protected by a medic, and a vig shoots them, the medic protection absorbs the shot. They cannot shoot another target. Well crap. We're in WIFOM country again. So in all Night #2 didn't clear anything up at all, we're right back where we started. If Sandro was telling the truth, there is almost certainly an SK. If he was lying, there's no SK. I was hoping for something more difinitive after night 2 :/ I'm not sure at the moment where Paper stands (he has changed his focus pretty quickly to Adam), but I do know that if he is a vig he has the worst timing ever. On March 07 2012 17:31 Probulous wrote:
Simpler to just assume that there is no extra kill point until someone claims. Yes and no. If we have a medic who saved someone last night, it would probably be better they don't claim for the moment as it would probably just end up getting them killed Night 3. Plus since mafia could have a vig, right now a medic claim wouldn't help at all in determining whether there is an SK. If there is a real vet who got hit, then they should absolutely claim. A vet would be an unlikely target for mafia Night 3, and it would at least help us narrow down the options. Given that we have lost our watcher, losing a medic wouldn't be worth that information. The absense of a medic/vet claim also doesn't necessarily prove anything. As I mentioned before, SK could have decided not to submit a night kill at all in an attempt to convince us there is no SK. That seems unlikely given the odds against the SK, but then again that may be the very reason the SK decides to do it (welcome to WIFOM city). So unless there is a vet that got hit (which seems unlikely) we are exactly back at the start of Day 2 in terms of figuring out if there is an SK--all comes back to whether Sandro's claim was real or not. | ||
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Paperscraps
United States639 Posts
On March 07 2012 20:08 Probulous wrote: Decon do you think it likely we have both a watcher and a tracker? Seems a stretch to me but could be true. That would give us a watcher, tracker and medic(probably). If you're assuming a SK too that is a lot of power roles in such a small setup but I guess they are more weak than usual. I agree that Paper's decision to shoot Jackal over you needs explaining. Makes sense from a mafia point of view to keep you around if they think they can lynch you. I still think Adam is a better bet for today's lynch. From phone I shot Jackal over Decon, because I had doubts about Decon being scum and didn't have doubts about Jackal. People were saying Decon isn't scum, stop tunneling him, so I did. I am realizing though that those people telling me that Decon isn't scum are probably scum themselves though. Also everyone needs to look at TheToast's question very closely. I will restate again why I claimed the way I did. I wanted town to know as much as possible about how the KP was distributed. In hindsight I should have claimed before day post, but this is the first time I have been a vig in a forum game. A lot of people fosed Jackal at the end of the night. Jackal even posted right after me, so he was obviously around, but didn't post relevant material during the night. If he had scum hunted during the night that would have swayed my decision. Note Decon's hesitance to vote Adam, after he calls him scum. If you honestly think I am SK after reading TheToast's post, you need to get your head checked. | ||
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Snarfs
Canada1006 Posts
On March 07 2012 13:43 Adam4167 wrote: You asked Pandain for his reads on who he thought was scum, he named Bluelightz, Jackal and myself. This is a glaring contradiction to his stance towards me yesterday. He was actively defending me and pushing the lynch in any other direction. Yet you don't even bat an eye-lid at his complete 180. Town Probulous is better then that, he would call out the glaring contradiction. ##Vote Probulous I think rather than nailing Probulous on this assumption, it would be in the best interests of the town to explain why you are not voting for Pandain given that you noticed it. | ||
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TheToast
United States4808 Posts
On March 08 2012 03:09 Paperscraps wrote: Also everyone needs to look at TheToast's question very closely. I asked because I wanted to see if it was possible that vig (potentially you) could have taken a shot at Sandro night 1 as well as the shot on Jackle night 2. I wanted a clarification on the rule, as if vig gets their shot back you could claim that you took a shot at Sandro and claim that makes you town; or if you failed to claim one way or the other on that shot I would be looking into it a bit more. Either way it's completely irrelevant given that vig's only get one shot. (assuming you really are a vig) As I said before several times, I'm proceeding as though Sandro's claim was real. If it turns out he was lying we lose nothing (assuming we don't lynch anyone based on his claim) and if he was telling the truth it could lead us to the SK. | ||
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Paperscraps
United States639 Posts
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Snarfs
Canada1006 Posts
Adam has already had a case made against him. Pandain:
decon:
Obviously my case against decon is very weak. But who are our alternatives? AKCT's reaction to Pandain should pretty much clear his name, but he has disappeared since then. I would really like to hear a good reason for this. Bluelightz??? How the hell do you read this guy? Paper? Maybe, but his reasoning for hitting Jackal makes sense, he did think he was scum. Also, I do believe him when he admits that he should have called the shot before the deadline. I'm never afraid to admit when I'm wrong, and I definitely think I was wrong about Paper unless I see some sort of evidence to disbelieve his claim. My case against Pandain does revolve a bit around Adam being mafia. I think we have enough reason at this point to lynch Adam today though. | ||
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