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Guys this is playing out exactly like D2 - we are going to be crunched for time and the chance of sheeping / bandwagoning or no lynch is a high possibility if activity is so stifled such as this.
Right now our mutual group of suspects lies within
- DYH, Alderan, TestSubject893 and ghost_403
ghost brings up a decent point in that DYH cannot respond and therefore pressuring and consolidating a lynch on people who are here will have a higher chance of success (as town suspects can clear their name / mafia suspects could slip)
I still think we have "enough info" on him (its D3 and he has one of the more weightier filters; I don't know what else you want), but if its general consensus that people don't want to vote him yet without waiting for him to give his defense, then it is a waste of time discussing that. 1st priority is agreeing upon a lynch.
We need everyone to post. Now if you have a strong case against someone else, bring it up now. Otherwise if you bring it up late (like k2hd D2) we will not have time to discuss and could make an avoidable mislynch.
As for now I'm voting my strongest read otherwise.
##Vote: Alderan
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On March 04 2012 03:50 Chocolate wrote:why are these people who haven't contributed that much least likely to be scum? I pointed out this in my summary (lol) but phagga really hasn't done too much. Nor has nightfury. Nor has sloosh. Zellblade has been active recently but before his DYH case he didn't post much content either. And dyh is at the top of the list... are you trying to just make zellblade happy or do you honestly believe this?
Who do you want to lynch today? Besides phagga.
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And J&H can you please quickly post your cases?
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In response to zelblade:
Despite the pressure on him, I am still not totally convinced that alderan is mafia. He stuck his neck out on day 1 with his case against chocolate (this is I believe the first case made in the whole game), and I don't see why mafia would do this. He drove a lot of discussion on day 1, and I don't see why mafia would want to do this, rather than letting discussion stagnate or focus on the wrong things (we spent a LOT of time debating the merits of a soft deadline). He was bringing the spotlight onto himself, increasing the chance that his posting would be scrutinised more closely (which happened).
The above paragraph alone isn't enough, but his voting pattern also suggests town to me. He voted steve day 1 and me for day 2. He did not want a chocolate lynch (who I still believe is town from my previous post), or an igabod/nttea lynch, who has since flipped blue. I obviously know I am town (still unsure about testsubject), but alderan does not. He could've helped in getting a lynch on an easy target in igabod/nttea (at the time there was a real chance of igabod being lynched), but chose steve instead. On day 2 he votes for me and keeps his vote on me when there was still the danger of a no lynch. I hope he can explain his absence when he gets back.
As for DoYouHas, I now find it VERY suspicious that after making these 2 posts (also used in sloosh's case):
post 1
post 2
He still has not responded to this post (in regards to the nightfury issue):
phagga's post
The only post he makes addressing phagga's post is this one:
+ Show Spoiler +On March 02 2012 02:45 DoYouHas wrote:Show nested quote +On March 01 2012 20:58 phagga wrote:
2 The question you should ask yourself here is: Is this something a townie would do? And if so, is it also something scum would do? I doubt scum would want to stay in the spotlight like that.
Also, If you are town, and you feel strongly about someone being scum, what are you gonna do?
- Try to push a lynch on that person even if people will not listen to you
- let the person of the hook because noone listens to you, and pick another target
I would be stupid to push his lynch so hard if I was scum and knew he was town. When he would get lynched and flipped green, everyone would be on my heels. You do not want that as scum, specially not so early in the game.
This is wrong. It is equally as possible that mafia would tunnel someone that hard. Tunneling someone into a lynch, on a green flip, makes it very hard for the town to determine whether it was just bad town play or scummy play. It is an easy way for a scum to get into and out of the spotlight without offering anything more than a null read on them. It also lowers the town's expectations for them for the rest of the game. Similarly, being willing to back off a case is just as often a trait of a townie who has changed their mind as it is a scum who wants a bandwagon. WIFOM my friend, WIFOM. I also find myself oddly comfortable with either a k2hd, gumshoe, or Alderan lynch. I think they all have good reasons to be lynched, but I will wait a little longer to see what people think before I make my preference clear.
No mention of why he let nightfury off so easily.
+ Show Spoiler +On March 03 2012 04:10 DoYouHas wrote:Show nested quote +On March 03 2012 03:25 slOosh wrote:DYH:Before D2 I've been on the fence with DYH as on one side it does look like he is trying to contribute and drive discussion, but on the other he is flip flopping a lot and seems really unsure of his reads. I understand your desire to lynch the hard lurker - but I really don't want N2 and D3 to be dominated by discussion of the validity of policy lynches. My questions for you still remain:
Did you think that k2hd was a better choice solely based on comparison to gumshoe?
Do you still think that he is a good lynch suspect for tomorrow?
We need as much info as we can get and we can pick up discussion on nttea lynch if you still feel inclined to do during D3, but it doesn't make sense to do it now at night since you could die and mafia might WIFOM stuff up if your reads and stances aren't clear. No I didn't think k2hd was a better choice solely based on comparison to gumshoe. He was someone that I found suspicious when I was making my case against NightFury because he met many of the scum standards I was using to accuse NightFury. I do think he is a good suspect for tomorrow.
Or why I do not get the same treatment as nightfury. He left for his trip AFTER phagga made his post, and has ignored the nightfury issue.
As for sloosh, I am on the fence, but leaning town. I am ready to re-evaluate after today's lynch, if alderan or DoYouHas are lynched and flip green.
Btw, chocolate, can you not post like that (your phagga case). It was extremely hard to read. Still believe chocolate is town because I doubt mafia team would let him make cases like that...
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@k2hd
The first paragraph pretty much sums up why im having doubts about my Alderan read as of now. I dont agree with the first to make case = not mafia, but I generally agree that he wouldnt have been driving discussion like that if he were mafia, and it seemed really different from last game.
So I take it that you arent willing to lynch Alderan today, and instead want to push for a DYH lynch?
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That is what I intend to do zelblade, even if he's not around, because I feel he is our best case now. Ghost has a point about trying to hunt the other 3 mafia first, but I think we REALLY need a correct lynch today. If you have more questions, I'll answer them a few hours later because I'm going to be occupied for awhile again. I will post my actual vote before going to bed.
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EBWOP
Just so you all know, I'm delaying my vote on DoYouHas to before I go to bed at the latest because I will most probably be unable to change my vote before the deadline due to being out all day tomorrow (class and meeting recruiters, oh boy).
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On March 04 2012 13:35 k2hd wrote:
In response to zelblade:
Despite the pressure on him, I am still not totally convinced that alderan is mafia. He stuck his neck out on day 1 with his case against chocolate (this is I believe the first case made in the whole game), and I don't see why mafia would do this. He drove a lot of discussion on day 1, and I don't see why mafia would want to do this, rather than letting discussion stagnate or focus on the wrong things (we spent a LOT of time debating the merits of a soft deadline). He was bringing the spotlight onto himself, increasing the chance that his posting would be scrutinised more closely (which happened).
The above paragraph alone isn't enough, but his voting pattern also suggests town to me. He voted steve day 1 and me for day 2. He did not want a chocolate lynch (who I still believe is town from my previous post), or an igabod/nttea lynch, who has since flipped blue. I obviously know I am town (still unsure about testsubject), but alderan does not. He could've helped in getting a lynch on an easy target in igabod/nttea (at the time there was a real chance of igabod being lynched), but chose steve instead. On day 2 he votes for me and keeps his vote on me when there was still the danger of a no lynch. I hope he can explain his absence when he gets back.
I would disagree with the methods you are using to determine alignment.
You are comparing his actions to "optimal" mafia actions - excusing whatever he may have said or done on the basis that it isn't the best course of actions a mafia could have taken.
This is not a good way to find mafia as
1) Hindsight bias is huge. This kind of thinking neglects the context in which actions were taken (such as what information was available at the time)
2) Mafia play like town, choosing perhaps "2nd choice" and can gain unwarranted "town cred" by choosing such actions. For instance, if someone defended themselves saying "if I was mafia I would have done this instead but I didn't so therefore I'm not mafia", you wouldn't (or at least shouldn't) accept that. Flip side should be same - your reads shouldn't compare a player to your idea of "optimal" mafia, but should rather compare to town (now what type of town such as timid, newbie, over aggressive is different for each person but it is more objective and doable).
3) Mafia are undoubtedly playing as a team, but don't want to be caught as a team. For instance if the other members were instigating a bandwagon that was going to be successful, another mafia member might defend the suspect (knowing they will flip green) to gain "town cred".
That being said, I'm not here to argue whether Alderan or DYH is a better lynch.
I'm here because I want us to come to agreement.
I am willing to vote either unless someone can sway me otherwise.
Will be extremely busy this Sunday, so I might not be able to be there right before the deadline, but will try checking in to see how discussion is headed and address any questions / concerns if I can.
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The activity is depressing. More than half the day is gone and we don't even any real contenders for the lynch as of yet. A large portion of the players haven't even stated who they want a lynch on, and a few (Ald, j&h) are completely mia. We need to consolidate a lynch now, cast your votes ASAP please. I'll cast my own soon after a quick reread but its most likely to be on dyh or alderan.
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Sloosh, I understand the points you're making, and do accept that they apply to the second paragraph of my post that you quoted. However, I still believe the first paragraph stands, and am still leaning towards DoYouHas. I suppose I might as well cast my vote now then. If I am able to find some time to check up on this thread in the morning, I may consider changing the vote if a better target comes up or there is a high chance of a no lynch, but for now...
##Vote: DoYouHas
I will still be around for a few more hours though.
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I feel that DYH is the best lynch today.
##vote: DoYouHas
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Why is a game with 11 players alive turning yellow....?
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Sigh need to go sleep now, and cannot be online during lynch time as I have school. Please consolidate a lynch, I probably can switch my vote onto it if you guys dont want DYH to be lynched.
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The thing that really worries me at the moment is that there is a small subset of players who are controlling the conversation of today. If I was less suspicious of the two premier lynch candidates, I would be very concerned.
Also, lurkers, stop lurking. You're really hurting the town at this point.
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##Vote Alderan from my mobile.
I wrote d2 that he is a lynch candidate. I just got through his filter again, and stick with it for now. Will have to read through dyh filter later. Expect more from me in 3 to 4 hours.
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On March 04 2012 09:20 phagga wrote:
Remind me, why is confidence a bad thing as townie? Should not every townie be confident, as he has no reason to hide anything and is just trying to do his best? That does not mean that mafia can't be confident too, but saying that a townie should NOT be confident is a strange understanding of the game mechanics.
I never argued that being confident as a townie was a bad thing. I was arguing that his confidence was unfounded and he was letting on more than he should know. His confidence sounded like he knew what was going to happen or that he knows something he couldn’t know at that point in time. It sounded to me that he had additional information that a townie should not have access to.
On March 04 2012 09:20 phagga wrote:
How? Please explain me how you can find out with such a question if there is a vigilante? I always thought that I am good logical thinking, but I can't find a good reason why this shows that there is a vigilante.
Upon reflection, I do notice that my statement was not worded well. Allow me to clarify. Gumshoe flipped green and he could not have known if there was a vigilante present or not. Gumshoe also being green should mean that he should be targeting people who he thinks are scum (whether they are lurking or whatnot). So I don’t see a problem with gumshoe having his opinion. So why ask a vigilante question? Originally I thought this was to bait extra information out of him. At the time of phrasing the question, gumshoe already had 3 votes on him and the case against him was building up. If ghost knew at this point that gumshoe was going to be lynched, he could try to see who gumshoe thought was scum in addition to his usual accusations and use that information to help the mafia. From a gumshoe being green perspective, if he was suspicious of individuals he could just have made cases. No town would suddenly find anybody he mentions without evidence to be immediately more suspicious than gumshoe himself.
Now there are two things I would like to add. One being gumshoe’s mentality at that time may have not been ideal. He said he wanted to leave the game but could not. This may have influenced his day 2 actions such that he didn’t want to make additional cases when he was being accused. And two, ghost responded to my accusation and I did not consider that point of view when making my case. While I do believe there is rationale behind why he asked this question, I still have my doubts and will need to consider things at a later point in time.
On March 04 2012 09:20 phagga wrote:
Why do you think that gumshoe's answer is valid? What potential useful information could gumshoe give away at that moment? (speak hypothetically, if you think it might give away something for mafia)
If gumshoe wanted to provide useful information to town, he could make cases. I don’t think anyone will just suddenly take up gumshoe’s answers to go after somebody else without good justification. The way the question was phrased was to allow gumshoe to claim who he thought was mafia without having to make a case. I don’t see how whatever he says is going to help town. But it could help mafia since it tells them who else may be acting suspicious according to gumshoe and if they need to re-evaluate something. And in the question, it indicates that gumshoe will be silenced soon after. So whatever gumshoe says is of no use to town. And if it was really no use to mafia, then why ask at all?
Now for that last part ghost did reply. As I said before, I did not consider that perspective to asking that question. However, I don’t see how ghost asking that question in the first place helps town in the slightest. Therefore, whatever gumshoe says is a valid response because there is no consequence in how he answers. He cannot persuade town without a case. He can answer however he wants.
Now while I am still suspicious of ghost, the worst thing we can do today is have a no-lynch. So depending on how the day unfolds and there is not much time left, I may need to put this on hold for the time being.
A no-lynch right now is just as bad as mislynching. Both of these ensures that all the mafia survive another day and prolong the game. Without a medic, their night hits are almost certain to go through at this point. If we no-lynch, we will probably wind up 6v4 on Day 4 which is a MYLO situation. If we mislynch, we will probably end up 5v4 on Day 4 which is LYLO. In both situations the game can end on Day 4/Night 4. However, if we go for today’s lynch instead of opting for a no-lynch we can potentially get a mafia which leaves us in much better condition on subsequent days.
Today seems to be focused on DYH and Alderan. I need to go through their filters and check out the cases against them in depth. As I said before, today is probably our most critical day.
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On March 05 2012 01:46 ghost_403 wrote:
The thing that really worries me at the moment is that there is a small subset of players who are controlling the conversation of today. If I was less suspicious of the two premier lynch candidates, I would be very concerned.
Also, lurkers, stop lurking. You're really hurting the town at this point.
It's not controlling if there is no one else posting.
Seriously this town makes me want to cry. It's almost like everyone else has already given up or something.
I mean, 2 pages since D3 started?? C'mon! Even if it is preliminary, we should all be casting our votes. Otherwise the mafia can easily just hang back and choose to swing the vote without giving reason, citing "oh we need a lynch today *insert suspect* seemed like the best choice and I really didn't want no lynch".
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On March 04 2012 03:53 Chocolate wrote:
EBWOP those bottom three people (phagga, nightfury, zellblade) are the ones i'm most suspicious of right now. I'll finish my scum team with tessubject803. I think I have at least two right, but I'm on the fence about ghost, the hydras (need to reread their posts because I have them confused a little), and sloosh.
@Chocolate What makes you think that neither Alderan or DoYouHas is scum?
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I'm pissed at the moment because I have a lot of questions for a lot of people and none of them are here 
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Where's Alderan anyway? Guy posted a vote for nttea over 50 hours ago (that never made it into the vote thread) and disappeared.
Also anyone else notice how his activity dropped after N1? His D1/N1-Posts fill 3 pages of filter, from there on it's less than one page of filter for the other days/nights.
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EPT
