EPTSurprisingly Normal Mini Mafia VII - Page 51
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GMarshal
United States22154 Posts
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Mattchew
United States5684 Posts
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Mattchew
United States5684 Posts
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gumshoe
Canada3602 Posts
schorz and hawk at the moment are null votes, meaning they just sit there, right now we need a six vote advantage to win, so if there are 10 players, 6 town and 4 mafia, and two town aren't voting what does that bring us to? 4/4 and theres no more vig, we may already be in lylo and not even know it, (ironicaly I Thought everyone knew this :/ loooooool) thats why I was so desperate to hear about hawk, the reason I don't think were in lylo is because the Hosts don't seem like the kinda guys that would let us just hopelessly squirm at this critical point in the game because two townies decided to just sit there, (that said it also seems way too late in to the game to introduce replacements but I dont know about that). Which leads my optimistic side to believe two things, that the reason they are not intervening is because either hawk or schorz or both are scum and we not only have a chance but an advantage (because two of the mafias are absent) and we have at least a 50-100 percent chance to lynch scum if we vote for one or the other. Than again this assessment is not only Wifom, its wifom established on the grounds that the impartial mediators would not let one side suffer,( which is beyond wifom it is mega god wifom), regardless if the hosts do not intervene today, and both schworz and hawk are town, then there is no way we can win this vote. In fact come to think of it we are now at that point in the game were every single town has to vote if we want a majority, so if either schorz or hawk are town (not even both), we are already in lylo. We need 6 votes, their are six town players and if even 1 player is town but absent we cannot lynch scum. The only vote were securing today as things stand is a mislynch, unless both schorz and hawk are scum in which case we should vote for one of them because it is the surest thing we have. Tomorrow though if we opt to no lynch we might get a replacement for hawk or schorz (or both) and if that/those replacement/s is/are town we might be able to stage a comeback. Yet as things stand the only favourable outcome for town is a no lynch or if your feeling the wifome a hawk/schworz lynch. (Oh another thing I just realized, if you are voting for a town player there should be no way you can secure that lynch without mafia assistance because you are losing that town players vote and as I said we need every single town vote.) | ||
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gumshoe
Canada3602 Posts
what do we loss if we mislynch hawk? We lose an angry ex poster, and once again a potential replacement. Also none of this replacement business is probably going to be solved before todays vote, which means the only way we can secure a lynch against mafia is if both hawk and schorz are mafia, which would also mean that the only players really bussing hawk or schworz are town because I doubt only two active mafia would have much power in that regard. It's either that or we no lynch in my opinion, which still gives us hope tomorrow if we get a replacement, also if either hawk or schorz are town you wont have to worry about lynching anyone else, because regardless of who your accused is, be it matt or ech or track or whoever you think are mafia, you wont be able to lynch them without mafias help. tldr, only way I see us winning this game is if both hawk and schorz are mafia and we vote for one of them or we no lynch and hope for replacements. | ||
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gumshoe
Canada3602 Posts
On February 24 2012 23:09 GMarshal wrote: Anyone who hasn't voted at the end of this cycle (and for which we have been unable to find a replacement) will be modkilled Now we wait and see. Oh do I have to vote right now or die? | ||
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GMarshal
United States22154 Posts
nope, just by the end of the day. | ||
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gumshoe
Canada3602 Posts
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gumshoe
Canada3602 Posts
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Mattchew
United States5684 Posts
there is no way sloosh and ech are this unintelligent... they are pushing a "case" on me because I think ech is scum and I didn't vote the same way as sloosh. Sloosh has been doing this all game. At first I thought it was just tunneling but now i realize that it has gone too far. to write an entire case about me centered around me making reads and believing in them is terrible. I wrote a 10x better case on myself and I know that I'm not scum. Gum I completely understand why you want to vote in hawk or schworz but here's why i disagree with you. a. they might be mod-killed which would make our voting mean nothing b. even if they are 1 scum or 2 scum we still have to take a large risk on voting someone to win this game. Personally, I believe we should take that risk now so as not to waste our time 3 days from now when we are in the same exact situation with no one budging on their beliefs. ##vote EchelonTee On February 24 2012 15:36 EchelonTee wrote: I also find this amusing because when you say "I have to say don't lynch me because thats my win condition and I have to play to it", by saying that it is "my" win condition, it means that it suits you to not die (scum or town), as opposed to "our" win condition, which would be to not mislynch a townie. This is just plain untrue. I don't know who our is (I have an idea) so it is my win condition, somehow you're playing this as a team huh? There is only 1 team in this game. You actually condemned yourself more than you condemned me here. To mattchew's defense: you say that 90% of sloosh's case is you believing in your reads, but now the fact that you dont believe in your reads is weird. As town, all you have are your reads. I can see that maybe you have lost confidence after last night's flip; I did too, but if you articulated why your reads still have merit, it would be easier to see you as town. Your utter loss of confidence, as I said, reminds me of my own pullback D3 in GMarshal's Normal Mini Mafia. My reads have changed because I realized the faults in them. I actually went into detail about why they were bad in the post you mocked before. thats ironic I'll consider anyone but trackd00r, if everyone is dead set against the Mattchew lynch. Really showing that confidence in lynching me. How can people see this as anything but like me, please like me | ||
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Mattchew
United States5684 Posts
##vote EchelonTee | ||
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gumshoe
Canada3602 Posts
a) both schorz and hawk are mafia and we lynched a mafia: This is the best scenario but by far the riskiest, the odds of both schorz and hawk being mafia aren't great, and even then we have to just hope that the guy we lynch is 100 percent mafia, we lose one townie the next day bringing us to... Town 5 mafia 1 b) Both schorz and hawk are mafia and we no lynched: Still pretty good, no lynch is actually what I'm leaning towards because it allows us to survive in the most scenarios, we lose a townie at night bringing us to... Town 5 mafia 2 c)Both schorz and hawk are mafia and we mislynch: Still not that bad, but only an option if your sure schworz and hawk arent town: We lose one at night bringing us to 4 town 2 mafia d)Schorz is mafia and hawk is town or vice versa and we lynch mafia: not really possible unless the mafia turn against eachother. More likely we no lynch or mislynch E) schorz is mafia and hawk is town or vice versa and we no lynch: Pretty much the only way to salvage this scenario brings us to 4 town three mafia F) schorz is mafia and hawk is town or vice versa and we mislynch: GG G) Both schworz and hawk are town: ggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggg H) Scwhorz and hawk return and have found all the answers: Praise Cuthulu. As you guys can see a no lynch in all these scenarios (unless hawk and shcwhorz are town (in which case gg) or they've been hiding underground all this time so that they could build us a new detective and viglante) is the option that is most likely to keep us alive, in fact a successful mafia lynch is only possible if both schorz and hawk are mafia, is anyone absolutely sure of that? You will have to prove both their guilt to me before I am even willing to consider a lynch. ##Vote: No Lynch | ||
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gumshoe
Canada3602 Posts
On February 25 2012 01:04 Mattchew wrote: so heres my train of thought.. there is no way sloosh and ech are this unintelligent... they are pushing a "case" on me because I think ech is scum and I didn't vote the same way as sloosh. Sloosh has been doing this all game. At first I thought it was just tunneling but now i realize that it has gone too far. to write an entire case about me centered around me making reads and believing in them is terrible. I wrote a 10x better case on myself and I know that I'm not scum. Gum I completely understand why you want to vote in hawk or schworz but here's why i disagree with you. a. they might be mod-killed which would make our voting mean nothing b. even if they are 1 scum or 2 scum we still have to take a large risk on voting someone to win this game. Personally, I believe we should take that risk now so as not to waste our time 3 days from now when we are in the same exact situation with no one budging on their beliefs. ##vote EchelonTee Matt I dont care about your case or slooshes, we are one mislynch away from lylo, hell we could already be in lylo , please consider my next post and my motion for a no lynch. | ||
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Mattchew
United States5684 Posts
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Steveling
Greece10806 Posts
So if we don't lynch we will be down to 8 dudes. Best case scenario both lynched guys are scum. We will lose 1 more in the coming night, so we'll be down to 7 with 2 scum. Hard but doable from that position for town. Worse scenario both lynched guys are town. We lose. Most expected scenario, it's one and one for scum and town. We are down to 8 dudes, 7 with next nights kill. Takes 4 to lynch, with 3 scum, it will be nearly impossible for us to unite our votes. What I wanna say is we are in the exact same situation as today. | ||
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Steveling
Greece10806 Posts
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gumshoe
Canada3602 Posts
On February 25 2012 01:29 Mattchew wrote: yeah i was gonna post about a no lynch, you also have to remember that even if they are both mafia and we no-lynch scum still gets a kill.. so you gotta subtract 1 town from your list and we are right back where we are today, tomorrow I already do that. | ||
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gumshoe
Canada3602 Posts
On February 25 2012 01:35 Steveling wrote: Your suggestion is bad gum, cause we are already in mylo. So if we don't lynch we will be down to 8 dudes. Best case scenario both lynched guys are scum. We will lose 1 more in the coming night, so we'll be down to 7 with 2 scum. Hard but doable from that position for town. Worse scenario both lynched guys are town. We lose. Most expected scenario, it's one and one for scum and town. We are down to 8 dudes, 7 with next nights kill. Takes 4 to lynch, with 3 scum, it will be nearly impossible for us to unite our votes. What I wanna say is we are in the exact same situation as today. Listen, if one of them is town and one is scum WE CAN NOT SECURE A VOTE AGAINST MAFIA because we are 5 town, not 6. The only case its safe to lynch is if both are scum, so prove to me that hawk or schworz are scum and I will gladly lend my vote to whoever. | ||
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gumshoe
Canada3602 Posts
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gumshoe
Canada3602 Posts
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