On February 25 2012 07:10 VisceraEyes wrote: That singular post contained more effort and thought than your entire filter this game.
Was that unclear?
It was, you didn't state anything to that effect in your first posts, or your statement was so muddled I couldn't make it out.
In this game, unlike in the previous game, I've done good analysis, clearly delineated my reads, and shot down anyone making bad setup based assumptions. If I was more verbose in explaining my own policy in whether or not I'm pre-voting someone, and what conditions it takes to change that pre-vote, I was certainly not less consistent than I have been this game.
On February 25 2012 07:05 VisceraEyes wrote: Actually, I changed my mind.
I'm nay-voting this team. I reread BH's filter in Resistance 1. This isn't even the same guy -.-
wtf, I didn't even look because I thought I remembered, but after going back and looking he actually looked like have a shit that game about figuring stuff out. He didn't cast suspicion on people for trying to understand the setup. He didn't just auto-align with someone he thought was town.
Yeah, sorry BH. Not this time.
##Vote: Nay
I'm not sure I'd characterize my Resistance I town play as "good" but that's your perogative. I still think a VE/Sent/Dirk team is passable so we can roll with that if Dirk will suggest it.
There's no response I can make against a statement with that level of certitude, since that is in fact a true statement. If you think I've been off with my reads or pushing scum teams, or have anything more convincing, please, send it my way and I'll do what I can to convince you.
On February 25 2012 07:20 Blazinghand wrote: There's no response I can make against a statement with that level of certitude, since that is in fact a true statement. If you think I've been off with my reads or pushing scum teams, or have anything more convincing, please, send it my way and I'll do what I can to convince you.
Man Sent look at it this way: if you think VE and Dirk are town, and you know you're town, what's wrong with me calling for a VE/Dirk/Sent team? Assuming you, VE, and Dirk are on board we just need one more person to sign on and we can pass it-- or do you not think VE and Dirk are town?
In this case you're Chief and Navi is The Arbiter. You've just killed Palmar, the Prophet of Truth, but you've traded one villain for another, and that is Prplhz, the Gravemind.
Basically what I'm saying is your team replaces one scum with another scum, that's the only distinguishing thing between it and the Palmar team. That's why you can't hop on that gunboat thing that's flying away.
Alright, we finally have enough votes. Here's why we're gonna win this Resistance despite losing the last one: we spent plenty of time voting and getting people to commit to stuff day 1.
Now that we have enough data, I think I can positively figure out the scumteam. I have this covered you guys.
Alright guys, welcome to this episode of Blazinghand's Votecount Analysis!
Let's take a look at how things have gone so far:
Basically, we've got two factions at an impasse.
One one hand we've got Sent, VE, and myself who have voted together as a bloc. We've tried topass a team of Sent/VE/BH, offering Dirk as a substitude for Sent once. On the other we've got Prpl, Dirk, Nav, and Palm, who have voted together as a bloc (except for when Navillus missed the Palmar vote). They've pushed the Palm/Dirk/Nav team.
Kita supported the VE/BH team once when it included Dirk in place of Sent. Chaos liked it when it included Sent in place of Dirk. Otherwise these two players have only voted Nay.
This reflects the same information, with each players yay votes and nay votes so far broken down. For example, over the course of this game Sent has been willing to yayvote teams with BH, Dirk, and VE (and of course himself).
Looking at the setup, I think it's clear what's going on here. We need 5 votes to get a team to go forwards, right? Assuming the scum all go against the town, we're talking a 5/6 consensus among townies..
Now if we look at our existing "factions" (though even within the factions there is doubt amongst the members of each other's alignments:
BH, Sent, VE
Palm, Nav, Prpl, Dirk
Kita
Chaos
It's actually fairly unlikely that all three scum lined up into one faction and formed a voting bloc. Barring some colossal stupidity from town (we've been good about nayvoting teams that aren't perfect) a 3-member voting bloc like this will eventually get overridden. Here's what I think is going on, and is also the reason we've been having trouble putting together a good team:
1) Palmar originally picked his team (Palm/Dirk/Nav) to try to set up Nav as a "fall guy" until I called him out on it. It was going to be a one-saboteur group *assuming I'm correct about Dirk and Nav being town, which is what I'm beginning to think given my analysis so far*.
2) Prplhz has been backing up Palmar to try to get a scumteam over the line. His vote is instrumental and has almost gotten the scumteam to get a sabotage through twice now. Having both scum players oppose Palmar would require him to get the help of 4 of the 6 town players, rather than 3 of the 6, making things much harder for him.
3) The third scum IS NOT in Palmar's voting block. This is the real crux of my argument. One of the scum players is playing a "long game" and trying to set up for being picked for a later team after the initial sabotages. He's voting against Palmar and setting himself up to earn town cred when a Palmar-backed team fails.
So where is this third scum? Well, he could be Kita or Chaos, who think Dirk and Sent are scum, respectively. Kita (now) strikes me as unlikely, though, due to the fact that Kita has been willing to listen to reason and suggest what is imo a good team. He could be Chaos, but we'll know if that's the case in a moment when Chaos suggests his team.
But where would the third scum really be? He'd be in my faction, if he's smart. He's trying to create a "win win" d1 scenario, where both of the major groups being pushed have one scum on it. It would explain why town is having such a hard time getting this through-- there are a limited number of town players on both sides of the issue, and the scum aren't gonna flip their flops. I'm positing that Sentinel is the third scum player. His level of activity and analysis has been acceptable at times, but I'm not sure he's really taken a hard look at the situation and offered good analysis. I think in part I was blinded by his buddying of me, and didn't take a close enough look. I think he was bluffing on the Dirk/BH/VE team, due to the anti-kita sentiment that infested the game at that moment, and he voted knowing that. A BH team wasn't going to pass with the Palmar group voting against me, and so he could safely vote Yay. And look at how he words it!
On February 25 2012 03:26 [UoN]Sentinel wrote: I'm going to yay and see what happens.
In the meantime, prplhz posted more shit math. If a team succeeds, that gives nothing about the number of scumplayers on the team because scum can elect not to sabotage.
In addition, if there ARE scum on the team, 2/2 can be scum as pointed out just above me.
TL;DR - don't trust someone just because they were on a successful team.
What is he saying here? Sentinel is voting yay, then setting himself up to make cases on the team members if it succeeds. This is a tell for his bluff. It fits with his posting patterns, and it's a shit reason for a vote. That and look at him bus prplhz. Look at him bus!
So as you can see, Sentinel is worried that somehow his bluff will go awry and the team will pass, and there will be no sabotages. He soft attacks people from a hypothetical successful team that he's only worried about because a town team has finally been suggested.
Chaos13, think about what's been said here. Take a look at the idea of a Palm Prpl Sent team, and you'll see it makes sense.
I think a reasonable team for today would be something like your option two: Nav, VE, Blazinghand. Given what I've seen, and that incredibly scummy bluff yay vote from Sentinel, I would like to see you propose this team. I would yay vote it.
And so should you, town. Dirk, Nav, think about what I've written here. It makes sense. It adds up. It's what scum would do, and it explains the voting patterns.
VE remains my strongest town read. Chaos really should rethink his scumread on Dirk, but I'm fine with Nav in his place.
TL;DR-- I think Palm/Prpl/Sent is the scumteam, and am pushing of a Nav/VE/BH team. My reasoning? there is no TL;DR for that. This is an analysis post. You need to read it and evaluate my thoughts, then read filters, count votes, and see if you agree.
VE, it's perhaps reasonable to say "I don't feel like BH is posting the same amount of words that he was posting in Resistance I" about how I'm playing right now. In fact, that's actually true. I think that I've been enormously more helpful in this game than in Resistance I, though, if we take a look at not "how much has BH written" but rather "how much helpful discussion has BH generated and how much info has he created for town?" I think I have been very helpful, in part because of the much better town atmosphere this game.
Remember, we're still on Day 1 here. This is a bigger, more full, more evidence-rich Day 1 than we had in the other game. What distinguishes this from Resistance 1 is that town actually knows what's up now-- we're not just gonna yayvote in the first team that comes rolling down the block. Remember how "town" the Rad/Palm/BH team seemed on D1 in Res 1? Imagine if instead we had gone through a bunch of team suggestions and voting rounds like we did now! currently, it seems like we're far into the game, but really, this is D1. No teams have passed, but even just a cursory glance at my analysis at the top of the page should show that we're way beyond where we were in D1 in Resistance 1, or even D2 or D3. I think I've done more on this Day 1 than I did last Day 1, in which I mostly talked about setup and irrelevant potshots at Rad. We've created a voting history. A lot of it still doesn't make sense since we haven't passed a team yet, but we're creating a record. Imagine what things will look like on later days when we have even more information, plus passed succeeded/failed teams. I think overall people are getting too discouraged about this "no teams have passed yet" thing when really this is an indication of good, skeptical town play. The fact that we're doing this means that we're forcing scum to put out more and more information, or to bluff more and more. I couldn't have made an analysis like this a couple voting rounds ago, which is why I didn't. And now that there's a body of evidence, I'm able to do so.
Obviously this is just one man's point of view, but all the info I've used is available to you, too. See if I missed something! The Team Thread has all the votecounts and team suggestions, and it's super easy to read. most people in this game have relatively short filters. Voting histories are transparent. Take a look at people setting themselves up for busses, bluffs, and who they're willing to send (as I have done with Sent).
Don't get stir-crazy because we're 5 leaders in and haven't passed a team yet, guys-- this is how it SHOULD be. We may not be able to do the same stuff to find scum that we're able to in regular mafia, but by doing this we put scum under an enormous amount of pressure.
Don't be afraid to Nay-vote a team if you think it's not a good team. Right now, even if things seem slow, we're winning.
On February 27 2012 22:23 prplhz wrote: He also said "Town Palmar wouldn't take all the reponsibility for a team." while saying "He is scum because he is setting Navilus up to take all responsibility for this team.". I don't agree with either of those statements, but what's important is how self contradictory they are and how little he cared about that. He seemed panicky even though it didn't look like he had a clear scum read on any of the team members, instead just attacking with everything he could make up and then settling on actually believing in something later.
Man are you intentionally having bad reading comprehension or what? Let me lay it out for you again.
Originally: Palmar is picking a team. He picks himself (reasonably), dirkzor (also reasonably), then Navillus. At this stage in the game Navillus has like 2 posts, and either dodged making his own team or was otherwise busy / not paying attention.
My criticism with this team was "hey dude, why pick Navillus? It looks like you're setting him up to be the fall guy for when the team fails"
Palmar said, (paraphrased), "If this team fails, I'll take responsibility-- remove me from the team and figure out other dudes for D2"
My response is "given that you personally know that you are town, this would be unreasonable for you to do. If the team fails, I expect you'd fight to get dirk/navi or BOTH removed and keep yourself on the team for D2. If you're town, and the team fails, and both dirk and navi are on the D2 team, you're throwing away a mission for free. This strikes me as not solid town play, and I feel like Palmar is a player who understands this setup and would play solidly as town.
@Palmar: If you don't like the fact that I nayvoted first and stated specific reasons in the like later, let me refer you to my voting history on Radfield's D1 team on Resistance I. I am not afraid to shoot first and ask questions later in this setup, if "shoot first" means "nayvote a team".
Also giving how hard Palm and Prpl are buddying each other I may need to rethink my scum reads. It doesn't really make sense for them to be sitting on each other's laps so much this game. Or maybe wifom wifom who knows
EPT
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