In a normal game mafia needs to dodge the lynch on days 1-2. It's on day 3 where things can start breaking up for them. However by day 3, half the scum team was dead, and one of their hits had been blocked. This should be a tremendous advantage to town, especially with the other one-shot vigilante hitting scum on night three (despite a day 3 mislynch).
At the start of day 4 these things worked for town:
Medic save night 1
Mafia lynch day 2
Mafia shot night 2
Mafia shot night 3
These were working for mafia:
mislynch day 1 (should be a given)
mislynch day 3 (game mechanics forced this on).
The fact that the game came even close after this shows how mafia favored the setup was. It is not normal to get a medic save correct in the first night. It is not normal either for 2 vigis to shoot correctly by day 4. It is however normal to lynch 1 scum before day 4.