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On January 07 2012 12:59 CatsnHats wrote:In regard to my martyr post, I'll admit that I felt pretty defeated when I was writing it, but then I realized that I could use your reactions as fodder for evidence and as a way of generating discussion, so I lurked and waited. I was pretty disappointed for the most part, a lot of "Don't give up for the town's sake" responses that came from the players with really town-y reads already (Prob, Gonzaw, Tunkeg), and this was meant to find scum, not confirm town. But then AnxiousHippo posted thank goodness, something I could make a read on. Show nested quote +On January 06 2012 16:31 AnxiousHippo wrote: @CatsNHats get your head back in the game if you're town you should be more focused on killing mafia than convincing everyone you're a dead weight. Just keep trying, your last paragraph was decent, try expanding on that. Thanks for the pep-talk, the thing is though, it's the exact same thing that Probulous wrote, just in less words. Bandwagon post to make yourself look town if you ask me. Show nested quote +On January 06 2012 11:40 Probulous wrote: Don't you dare throw in the towel! That is a shitty thing to do. Hell ask for a replacement if this is too hard for you.
If you are town, fight for your life. I am pissed at AKCT for his apathy. You at least have been posting. Take a break and come back later with a case on someone. You realise if you throw in the towel and you are green you are severly handicapping the rest of us?
You noticed that Hippo hasn't been contributing. Do what Gonz did and make people see your point of view. The argument against you is long and has substantial evidence. There isn't anything you can really do except be useful to town.
I hate it when people do this. It is so passive aggressive and weak. Grow a spine and take the heat. If you get lynched, well better luck next time. But this, is aweful. And why would you compliment my last paragraph? Because it points the finger at you. If I didn't include you, would that make it better than "decent"? Or are you just complimenting it because you think I would let you off the hook? And then this: Show nested quote +On January 06 2012 16:31 AnxiousHippo wrote:On January 05 2012 12:09 Gretorp wrote: And i will be doing a huge post otnight most likely just got to get caught up since it grew a lot When? Don't think we've forgotten. Really? After everyone else has already agreed that he needs to respond and has been pressured, you jump on the bandwagon and offer this filler BS? You're going to have to do better than that. You also say that Xeris doesn't look scummy because we have nothing to go on, but his posts are more questionable than Gretorp, a player you are bandwagon pressuring. Are you just trying to protect Xeris, a scum friend? 9 (excluding me) people left. 3 are mafia. AnxiousHippo, Blurry, Gretorp, and Xeris have all drawn suspicion for either lurking, contradicting themselves, shady behavior, etc. Do I think the whole mafia is in these 4? NO. Do I think at least one, maybe of them is? Yes. In light of recent events, AnxiousHippo has done the most to damn himself in my eyes, but we're kinda stuck on Gretorp and Xeris until they answer or get modkilled. That leaves Blurry, I'll analyze his filter and post later. Who's ProfBA? I thought you all were mistyping Prob but you kept saying it so I'm confused. @Sheth This is the definition of OMGUS from the TL Newbie Thread Cookie linked: "OMGUS: Oh my God! You suck! Voting for someone just because they are voting for you" Is this better guys? I'm really trying here.
Contrary to what you may believe when I say something is decent, I mean it is decent. I was complimenting you and the fact that for the first time in living memory you actually provided something. Geez man, way to take a compliment! I could care less if you are suspicious of me but this bit was hilarious.
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Before I lynch you i would like to apologise if you don’t like me using the photo. I will remove it if you give yourself up easily.The Baby-Faced Killer
First things first, I am sorry guys I failed you yesterday. I put together my cases and was part of the lynching of the innocent CookierMaker who was also proficient in the art of tea-making. I was wrong.
Worse still I had a null read on Sheth. Fool me once, shame on you, fool me twice ... Not likely
Here is Sheth's filter. I will be posting most quotes old school otherwise this will be too long. So here we go.
My initial suspicion of Sheth was raised when he let Cats off the hook for a shitty reason linky. He is the first to identify a particular person for scummy play but immediately backs off? If you thought Cats was posted badly then puts the pressure on him to stop. By undermining his own stance with " I'm picking on you for no real reason" Sheth provides an escape for Cats. My belief it was in the hope that no-one really noticed and would drop the subject.
This is my response to Cats and you can the difference in tone. I want him to actually change and I stand by my position.
Unfortunately no-else noted this at this point in time. Luckily for town Sheth had promised a revelation in the morning. Well this is the revelation (Linky for context). Here is the meat of it
On January 05 2012 03:58 Liquid`Sheth wrote: Ahhh yea. Gretorp getting busy. I like it. Were going to get some scum. Ok, well, I'm going to analyse some games for a bit, as I have to work. However before I go, I geuss I'll point out one thing.
Fluff
Everyone seems to be accusing everyone. It doesn't help, because we know its just one persons pressure and honestly we assume its fake pressure, because after all its day1 and we don't have any great reads. So, instead of this I recomend we get behind one person and see if they can tell us why they ARE NOT mafia.
Here we have something that looks fine at first glance but upon rereading makes no sense. As town, you want people to participate, you want information, any information. Pressure is what produces responses and responses produce things to find scum with. If you aren't pressuring everyone who are you pressuring and how can you be sure they are mafia? Choosing one person to focus on means you give mafia (at this stage) and 10/12 chance of not-being lynched. Who chooses who is the person to face the pressure anyway? No this gives mafia too much space to hide and is a really scummy post.
This is clearly mafia motivated. You assume we won't have any reads on day 1, implying we shouldn't bother. How can anyone prove they are not mafia on day 1? By being proactive and providing new information.Focusing on one person gives mafia an easy excuse to sheep.
I was planning on leaning on Cephiro, for his post here : Show nested quote +On January 04 2012 10:42 Cephiro wrote:I'll have to say CookieMaker provides a few good points to start with. Even though none of us knows the exact set up, I would have to argue that we as town have a much better starting point. Considering the case that the mafia would have a role blocker, it will most likely be less useful until later game when people are starting to have better reads on each other. If the town has both the medic and detective, it is quite likely that they will be able to do something useful. (Mafia role blocker would have 9 persons to choose from, since he/she would know the 3 mafia.) That leaves a 2/9 = around 22% chance of roleblocking on the first day, since I'm quite sure there will be no roleclaims this early. On the other hand, the medic has a very small chance of blocking the first kill on N1 (1/11 * 8/9 ~ 8% chance), but the detective has a chance of as much as 27% finding scum on N1 if he doesn't die. (Which would be about 24% in total, which is still higher than the chance of mafia roleblocking.) Note: You may notice I'm into maths a lot.... Also, it might even be that the mafia has a roleblocker but the town has no power roles, which renders the mafia roleblocker useless, making the situation even worse for them. Anyway, I think that we should try to be provocative and try to raise as much discussion as possible. In my opinion we should aim to lynch someone (hopefully scum) on D1. A no-lynch would essentially give the mafia a free kill, and not necessarily get us that much more information.Also... On January 04 2012 10:12 Probulous wrote: Come on town let the streets flow with red red blood! What a lovely way to start the game... but on the other hand, I doubt even a newbie scum player would slip that early, even though it could be done on purpose to make us think even a newbie wouldn't slip such, but in fact being scum anyway? It comes down to a wall of text that tell us nothing. It just makes it look like hes contributing a lot when in fact he hasn't come up with a new opinion and his others posts are very non-committal. Just like wishy washy, things, and I thought it was just weird.
Firstly note the use of the word "leaning". He states before his case that it is weak and only meant as faint pressure. This undermines his point before he even starts. Sheth points out an obviously bad post (one which i had been arguing with Ceph about all day 1). Ceph had already acknowledged the stats meant nothing so there isn't any point in regurgitating the argument now. But even if Sheth thought it was scummy, he doesn't say so. No it's weird. Casting doubt without actually calling him out.
However this morning you posted Show nested quote +On January 05 2012 00:16 Cephiro wrote: Time for a D1 analysis! Obviously I'll leave myself out, but if someone wants to know more about my opinions / ask why I'm in favor of something, please go ahead, discussion is what we need at the moment.
Also, my apologies if I'm wrong with someone's gender, I'll make a mean generalization and expect everyone to be a male until noted otherwise.
Player List: 1.CookieMaker
For now I'm leaning slightly towards town on him, even though he is quite in-favour of the no-lynch possibility. But I think that may be due to the fact that it's his first game, and he may not have read through/followed many mafia games before. So I'm thinking he's rather be safe than sorry, but hopefully he'll realize the amount of information even a possible mislynch will give us, not even mentioning the huge lead we can get if we nail a mafia on D1. His posts could have slightly more actual content, but he's trying so for now he's okay to me.
2.Liquid`Sheth
Hasn't posted anything useful aside from welcoming people and pressuring CatsnHats. Sure, pressuring at this point has to be done, but deciding to pick on one person for no real reason at this point and providing no other content? Hopefully he means well and just tries to make sure CatsnHats plays pro-town regardless of being new, I mean, Sheth does have 2 previous games of TL mafia as a base of experience. But for now, I am reading something between neutral or slightly scum. I dare you to prove me your innocence, so I'll be waiting for your morning post.
3.AnxiousHippo
Doesn't seem to have any idea of what he should be doing, but I guess it's understandable since it's only his second game. I am hoping to hear more from you, since you haven't posted enough content to make any kind of read on you. Neutral.
5.Tunkeg
Good forewarn on not being able to answer at the start of the game. Appareantly was on the winning side in his first game. He seems like an aggressive type of person, wanting to start the accusations and pressure to get some discussion going on. Thinks that D1 lynch is a must, but backs it up with some very good points. Took the first vote playing it relatively safely, voting for a lurker who hasn't posted yet. Clearly wants something to happen, but I am for now unsure if his method will be very successful. Neutral for now, but if you keep the activity up I should be able to get either a slight-town or slight-scum read on you soon.
6.Jitsu
Seems to want to actively participate, and most of his posts so far are convincing people to lynch on D1. Hasn't posted any actual content other than that though, so I will still stand on a neutral read. I am hoping to hear more content from you soon, I need to get more reads.
7.Xeris
All I can say is, no content, not a good sign. Neutral.
8.Gretorp
Same as above, neutral.
9.Gonzaw
Answering people's questions, trying to explain some of the basic stuff that should be understood, looks good to me. I like the way he pushed to know more about how I seem to know about the game, so he seems like he isn't taking anything for granted. Also suggesting pressure voting to get things going. I have a slight town-read here.
10.Blurry
Seems to be in favour of no-lynching, wanting to stay on the safe side. Hasn't talked about anything but different possibilities if a mafia roleblocker exists. Not useful. (Okay, I'll have to admit that my statistics post at start wasn't necessarily very useful either, but I've been at least trying to post other content as well.) Neutral for now, but if you won't be posting more, I would lean on slightly scum.
11.Probulous
Being very active at the start, and the play seems really town-favouring. Constantly asking for opinions and explaining his reasoning. I like his opinion on lynching, definitely wanting to lynch mafia but still keeping in mind the possibility of being careful incase we don't get any reads on D1. Hopefully we will have some scum reads that we can go for so no-lynch won't be necessary. Pressuring the people that should be on according to timezone but haven't posted. I would have to say you are my strongest town-read so far, I want to hear more of your opinions when you're back.
12.CatsnHats
Being a new player, it's understandable that he's a bit confused, but you really need to learn that you CAN'T TRUST anyone but yourself. Whatever you think about the situation or someone's reads, say it, don't just agree or disagree randomly. I'm kind of worried of the chance that you are a townie whom the mafia would be able to talk around easily, but I hope you'll prove me wrong. (about the convincing part.) Or you could be mafia that is pretending to be a super-newbie town on his first game... who knows. But you're neutral so far. Start posting your opinions!
I'm not going to vote yet myself, but I will join the pressure voting in a few hours if Xeris and Gretorp aren't going to turn up. Which has some negatives and actually contribues some, so I'll back off for now. Kinda ironic that you wanted me to post my read today and my read was on you.
Apparently this means that Sheth doesn't need to "lean" on Cephiro anymore. That terrible analysis which has some negatives (we never hear what they are) is enough for Sheth to back off. Essentially you undermine your case which is a repeat of our discussions from day 1 and then dismiss it because he posted his analysis which you say has negatives but won't tell us what they are.
Talk about wishy-washy. Again, this is casting suspicion without making it clear. A mafia would not want to call out someone who could defend themselves well. Much better to push a weak case and hope it catches fire.
Given my DAy 1 read it is a tad ironic that Cephiro was the first to pick this up (linky) but he deserves credit for it. Tunk (bless his townie soul) picked up Sheth's terrible reasoning for focusing on a single player (linky). Jitsu pointed out that Sheth was hyping his possible analysis but then failed to deliver (linky). So far that is three people (based on my current reads) that are either green or looking greeny, that have noted Sheth's scummy play.
At this stage the only people he has targeted have been Cats and Cephiro both of which he has let off the hook.
He was not suspicious of Cephiro at this point
He did not post anything after backing down on his "case" against Cephiro and yet as soon as he comes back to thread and has read my analysis this is his post in full
On January 05 2012 12:18 Liquid`Sheth wrote:Yea, thats same for me Andre. Ok, heres what I've got. I didn't actually take the time to read through Cephiro's List completely. I simply saw that a few things on it were pointing out scum and he was worried about me in perticular. Those were things I wanted to see and saw them. However after re-reading them I realize that they don't pressure anyone. Hes being so completely passive and neutral. This is a trick that scum use generally. They don't want to commit to anything because they think that as long as there not stand outish in one way or another they won't get lynched. They live for that center world where they don't contribute much, but seem to. Even fairly recently : Show nested quote +On January 05 2012 09:04 Cephiro wrote:On January 05 2012 07:14 Cephiro wrote: @Jitsu: I'm actually starting to be really suspicious of him at the moment. He had a very active start, even though his content was somewhat fluffy. I've changed my opinion about him since my earlier post, partly due to many people providing good reasoning about his play so far. I am actually wondering a bit as he hasn't said anything since yesterday's start, so I'm interested to hear if he has some actual opinions or reads to give when he comes back. I did not ignore your question. I will however give you an up-dated opinion once Cookie posts the rest of his reads, so please wait until that. (I am waiting for it myself quite eagerly) Its just so bad. He is just following "people providing good reasoning". This may seem like something we should all be doing, and it is. However on night one, if you are going to follow it, you follow it through. Because of this and because my first worry was about Cephiro I'm definetly liking Probulous. I say we lynch Cephiro.
Note how he twists Cephiro's words here. He says he changed his opinion partly due to other people's good reasoning. Sheth turns that into following people blindly. There is nothing wrong with following good reasoning. You should, that is logical, much better than following bad reasoning. But Sheth makes it look like Ceph is just sheeping.
The benefits for this are great. We can completely tell about Probulous being town or not (which actually isn't too great, as that means he will probably die, Medic shoould definetly include him in WIFOM if there is a medic though!). And hopefully me as well, as I think hes a good lynch. However if hes town we'll also have a good read on a few other people who are sticking out to him. Perhaps lynching Cephiro will just be who the mafia buss. However I think that its a percentage game. And right now, Cephiro is definetly my highest scum read, ##Vote: Cephiro
@CatsNHats -You seem oh so scummy. Whats your take on lynching Cephiro? Would you be willing to join in on this little train we're starting?
Anyone else willing to hop on board, don't forget to pack a vote.
Here we have his subtle linkage on Cephiro's possible flip and my alignment. Note the word use " We can completely tell about Probulous being town or not". By Sheth's thinking if Ceph was town I had to be mafia. This would be really beneficial to Sheth because he knows Ceph is town, which means he can hopefully get me lynched when Ceph flips green. Hell no you can't. Unfortunately this distracted me and I have "words" with Sheth. Note how he immediately assumes I might die night one. Well I didn't, Tunk did. One of the few that called him out on his back-pedalling.
But then the best bit, Cephiro goes from being Sheth's second read to nothing to highest scum read based on MY analysis. Note he has added nothing here except a weird twisting of Ceph's words to make a point that doesn't make sense. To me this reads like someone desperate to look like they had Ceph as their target all along. Sheth never says that his reasoning is based on my case, in fact he never mentions what his reasoning is.
At this point Sheth and I wonder off into diversion land about whether Ceph's flip says anything about my alignment. There isn't much there except in this post Sheth makes a big boo-boo.
Honestly all this talk is probably pointless as lynching mafia first round is pretty low. However I really like our reads on Cephiro and I'm pretty hopeful. Xeris / Gretorp whats your thoughts on this when your done doing stuff at work? Xeris is a REALLY pro-town read for me now. Andre I want you to be too, but your first post was bad. Give me your analysis and I hope I like it!!!
Read that first sentence again. Way to pump the team Mr Sheth. At this point, we may be against the odds but not heavily so. Unless of course you are Mafia in which case you know we won't be lynching red. He follows this gem with Xeris being REALLY pro-town.
Xeris had been seriously absent and then appeared with random comments about RNG and basically trashed all analysis done to date. He had (has) done nothing for this town and hasn't even hinted at being suspicious of someone. There is nothing pro-town about his play but Sheth is quick to defend him. OK, you're mates I get it, but why Xeris over Gretorp. At least Gretorp pointed out Cephiro waffling, that was a damn site more than xeris but no Xeris is REALLY pro-town. I don't like lynching lurkers but when Sheth flips red I bet Xeris will too.
The next post of consequence from Sheth is this beauty. Where he claims allegiance to Xeris because he played real life games with him.
quote]Well, the Xeris thing is based completely on the fact that I know him really well IRL and we've played mafia a bunch before. He is really bad mafia. Like he'd be lurking and mod killed if he was mafia.
And his posts about why he doesn't want to lynch someone this day are what I initially thought too when I went from IRL games to forum posts. So just the fact that he is usually terrible as mafia and whenever hes used that excuse in the past hes always been town + hes playing just how I imagine a townie Xeris playing gives me a good read. Hes one of the only two I know IRL, so its easier for me to get a read on him then the rest of you.[/quote]
This is Sheth's third game, he knows this is different. He even uses that as a reason for Xeris bad play when he says "And his posts about why he doesn't want to lynch someone this day are what I initially thought too when I went from IRL games to forum posts". But then he ends up saying he will have a good read because he has played with them offline?
No the reason Sheth has a good read is because Sheth is scum. There is nothing in his reasoning that suggest Xeris should be given special treatment but in Sheth's mind he deserves it for being REALLY townie.
After all this he decides to discuss outing the DT (if we have one) I thought by this stage we had made it clear that discussing blues only gives mafia an opportunity to work out if there is a power role. Worse Sheth suggests the DT claim!
That is terrible as this would almost certainly draw a counterclaim from scum and put town in a WIFOM situation where both end up getting lynched/killed. It is a trade of a DT for a mafia, which he supports! No way, DT can find mafia on his own then post his reads just like the rest of us.
It is 1 am and I need some sleep so I will this last bit quick. The vote and nightkill.
Sheth suggested I change my vote to AKCT because Cephiro was not going to get lynched. I was the fourth person to place my vote down at 08:15 (my time) by 08:26 the required seven had been reached by Sheth hammering it home. Those three votes were Cephiro, Cats and Sheth. There was no resistance to this lynch once I had placed my vote which means that people were sheeping. I had a strong case on Cookie from the start, but Sheth he went back and forth on Cookie. Only when the deal was sealed did he push really hard.
Finally the nightkill, here are Sheth's responses to AKCT questions
2) If you were a Doc (could save someone from a nightkill), who would you save and why? I would save one of Probulous, Myself, Gonzaw and Tunkeg. Note I am first and and Tunk is dead. Sheth knows I have been of value and would probably be a good medic save, hence he puts me first. But he puts Tunk last, he wanted the medic (again if we have one) to save me so Tunk could get shivved.
I am done guys, I was wrong yesterday but I am not wrong today. Sheth it seems you rolled red again, time for you to swing.
##vote Liquid'Sheth
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On January 07 2012 17:01 CatsnHats wrote: @Prob forgot about your question but it's 3 AM here so I'm going to bed. will answer when I get up and re-read filters.
Cats, I like the fact that you are fighting, keep it up. But for christ's sake, give me your read on Sheth and Cephiro. The reason I asked for these so long ago was I didn't want my analysis to allow people to sheep. Cephiro has specifically asked for my thoughts which is why I posted my case when I did.
Hell even Blurry managed to provide his two lines but you have dodged this question all weekend. So here it is again
What are your reads on Sheth and Cephiro and why?
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@Jitsu.
Nice work, I noticed your case earlier but unfortunately I can't comment on everything.
What made me focus on Sheth was that both people who I thought were town (you and Tunk for example) and those I thought were mafia (Cephiro) were pulling him up on stuff. It made him hard to read, but once Ceph started firing cannon shells and my read changed it became clear that Sheth was playing scummy but I wasn't paying attention.
So thanks guys, you really helped me notice his faulty logic.
With the case as it is would you be willing to lynch Sheth?
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On January 08 2012 05:46 gonzaw wrote:Show nested quote +On January 07 2012 17:19 Blurry wrote: I've been trying to figure out why someone would target Tunkeg rather than someone like Probulous (posted the most analysis and was one of the most assertive players thus far). I think this could potentially tell us certain things.
Probulous posted his reads on all the players in the game categorizing them by who he thought was town/neutral/mafia. While this does not make him seem any more scummy. My instinct on this is that a player who is mafia is categorized by him as being town and this cover would be useful to the mafia in some way.
My other thought is that Tunkeg was pressuring someone that was mafia in a way that made him the biggest threat. He was pressuring Gonzaw and Cephiro and also did a little bit on Sheth. Since Cephiro was already cast under so much suspicion by Probulous I infer that there is a high chance that either Gonzaw or Sheth, or both are scum and am going to re-read their posts thoroughly. My initial instinct is that Sheth is the more likely candidate as he has literally posted zero analysis and has simply pressured or challenged peoples points rather than helping us weed out scum. This is the biggest pile of WIFOM I've ever seen in my life. You still haven't responded to me, so as soon as you finish "re-reading their posts thoroughly", please post your findings AND respond to my post. I'll wait to see Sheth's response and how he reacts to make my read, although Prob's case makes sense. Show nested quote +On January 07 2012 16:40 Probulous wrote: To the rest of the town, please can I have your thoughts on Sheth and Cephiro? I am re-reading the thread over and over again and re-evaluating my positions on people. Null read on Sheth (until now at least), and Town read on Cephiro.Also people, what do we do regarding Xeris/Gretorp? Just wait?
Gonz man, what the hell is this shit? You call others out for wishy-washy play but then post this contortion. You think my case makes sense but Sheth's response will tell you more? If the case is solid, nothing Sheth says should change your mind. He can always cast doubt on what I have written.
I could forgive you for that, Ceph's defense for example shows what happens when a townie gets a case brought against him. But what is the null read (until now at least) Is he null or not? You either are waiting for more info (null case) or you think he is mafia (until now case). How can you have both positions in the same sentence?
Would you be willing to lynch Sheth?
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On January 07 2012 17:19 Blurry wrote: I've been trying to figure out why someone would target Tunkeg rather than someone like Probulous (posted the most analysis and was one of the most assertive players thus far). I think this could potentially tell us certain things.
Probulous posted his reads on all the players in the game categorizing them by who he thought was town/neutral/mafia. While this does not make him seem any more scummy. My instinct on this is that a player who is mafia is categorized by him as being town and this cover would be useful to the mafia in some way.
My other thought is that Tunkeg was pressuring someone that was mafia in a way that made him the biggest threat. He was pressuring Gonzaw and Cephiro and also did a little bit on Sheth. Since Cephiro was already cast under so much suspicion by Probulous I infer that there is a high chance that either Gonzaw or Sheth, or both are scum and am going to re-read their posts thoroughly. My initial instinct is that Sheth is the more likely candidate as he has literally posted zero analysis and has simply pressured or challenged peoples points rather than helping us weed out scum.
Terrible post, Gonz is right this tells us nothing at all. However you at least posted your thoughts on Sheth (Cats I'm looking at you).
So to make it easy
Blurry, would you vote to lynch Sheth? If not why not?
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On January 07 2012 10:30 AnxiousHippo wrote: I'm working on the bandwagon analysis
Thanks for taking the time to do this. I eagerly await the results. It has been 24hrs now so you should have something to post.
Whilst you are at it, please answer my questions about Sheth and Cephiro. In addition
Would you be willing to lynch Sheth?
I know I may look like I am spamming the thread, this is not intentional. I just want people to know that I am watching them and will be holding each individual accountable for how they answer that question.
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I've read it twice through...
##vote Liquid'Sheth
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On January 08 2012 11:23 CatsnHats wrote: Cephiro really impressed me with the way he defended himself against your analysis. His statistics post people got angry at him for isn't really that big of a deal for me since it was his first post and it's his first game of forum mafia. Ceph was also the first the post a write-up on all the town, although you picked it apart later. I still think that counts for something. He called out Sheth in his defense post for Sheth's wishy washy play, and later pressured me on my terrible play up to that point. His analysis was the reason I made the martyr post. There was no real way for me to defend my play up to the point, and seeing it written up that way I knew I was distracting from catching scum. His analysis is very good, and I hope he gets back from his sports tournament soon because he's an asset to this town. Cephiro is definitely a town read for me.
Sheth endeared himself in my eyes for defending my newb-play in the beginning, and even after my martyr post he still had a town read for me. I'm starting to think that's because he KNOWS I'm town though. Prob's and Jitsu's analysis has definitely cast a black cloud on the nicest guy in esports. He has ghosted on Prob's analysis of Cephiro, basically promising analysis in the morning on someone's that bothered him. Prob posts his Ceph analysis, and then Sheth's like "oh yeah we was mine too." Just seems like he was waiting for someone to post original content so he can ghost it. And the way he has handled the Xeris situation is shady as well.
Sheth is our best case so far, but I'm really holding out hope (albeit a faint one) that Xeris, Gretorp, or AH will talk before the lynch. I will at least do this: ##Unvote: CatsnHats I'm not going anywhere unless the town or mafia decides it.
So you think they are more likely scum than Sheth? I am not changing my vote here, are you with me or not?
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On January 08 2012 11:58 CatsnHats wrote:Show nested quote +On January 05 2012 12:57 Liquid`Sheth wrote:
Also, your crazy to not think that there is no relation between who you analyse and find scummy and whether or not you are scum. If the person we follow along with the most picks 3 town in a row, theres a solid chance hes mafia. If the person we follow kills 3 mafia in a row, theres a solid chance hes town. I don't know how you can't agree with that.
@Everyone The phrase I bolded is really interesting to me. It seems like the town (including myself) has followed Probulous without much question. He has posted so much many long posts so often that we have written him off as town without thought and reanalysis. Do you think that Probulous is getting by without enough criticism? He's not a D2 lynch target by any means, but do you think that is true? This is NOT FOS, I'm just asking a question.
Cats, you still aren't standing up for yourself. You are right to point out that everyone seems to have me pegged as town without thought. Why do you have to say I am not a day2 lynch target by any means and that this is not a FOS. Stop undermining yourself. Just ask the question and provide your own analysis.
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On January 08 2012 12:44 Liquid`Sheth wrote:Going to point out two of the main problems you have with my posting is my calling out Cats and then Cephiro. You say I ghost your read on him as well. You then talk about me not voting early on AKCT and following you again. Show nested quote +On January 07 2012 06:00 Probulous wrote:Alright, my Sheth read. Points in his favour He is active and was the first to call out both Cats and Cephiro. He is happy to respond and get engaged in large discussions. He voted early for AKCT who was already on his list of scum reads. I did remove the negative points you have on me in that quote, such as my defence of Xeris and defence of Cats and not completely training my thought on Cephiro early on. However I don't see whats caused you to change your mind so quick? I've been too distracted by all of this pressure on me that I havn't done another full write up on Cephiro. @Probulous what has caused you so suddenly to think Ceph is town? I'm going to do a write up on what I've seen recently, so hopefully you answer is good.
Here is is the entire post so you can see what I mean.
On January 07 2012 06:00 Probulous wrote:Alright, my Sheth read. I am not going to post a massive text wall, it is 7:30am on a Saturday, give me a little break These things bothered me. He seems to really want to talk about blue roles, I don't see the value in this and the potential risk. If we have blues, discussing roles can lead to an outing which is bad for all. Despite my constant requests for this to stop, he has kept on about them. Most of his posts are fluff (admittedly discussions with me took up quite a few). He blatant support of Xeris with this as his reasoning Show nested quote +Well, the Xeris thing is based completely on the fact that I know him really well IRL and we've played mafia a bunch before. He is really bad mafia. Like he'd be lurking and mod killed if he was mafia.
And his posts about why he doesn't want to lynch someone this day are what I initially thought too when I went from IRL games to forum posts. So just the fact that he is usually terrible as mafia and whenever hes used that excuse in the past hes always been town + hes playing just how I imagine a townie Xeris playing gives me a good read. Hes one of the only two I know IRL, so its easier for me to get a read on him then the rest of you. That last line is particularly bad. It is clear that online and offline mafia are totally different, Sheth knows this from playing two games yet he is pretty certain that Xeris is town based on his offline play? The only reason you are certain of someone's alignment is when they flip or if you are scum. His case on Cookie amounted to Show nested quote +Let me go re-read / filter cookie. His one post that stuck out to me was him defending Cephiro and saying he was extremely pro-town. Honestly though, with just remembering cookies lines I don't think anything really stuck out. Will go re-read now.. Show nested quote +I read through CookieMaker's / A K C T's filter. Cookie's filter looked a little bad. He talked a lot about his read on CatsNHats and then never posted it. A K C T I like that your asking questions, but could you please post a few reads you have as well? Which was enough to put his scum list as Show nested quote +@Probulous my 3 scummiest right now are probably Cookie ( A K C T ) / Cephiro and / Maybe blurry Cephiro pointed out his dropping of the Ceph case until I posted mine. Points in his favour He is active and was the first to call out both Cats and Cephiro. He is happy to respond and get engaged in large discussions. He voted early for AKCT who was already on his list of scum reads. So in short my read is still null I can justify what he says from both a townie and scum perspective which makes him hard to read. I am still suspicious and will have a reread later in the day when I have more time and am a little more awake
I even said in that post that I still found you suspicious and would take a closer look when I was more awake. Well I did and found scum.
That is in my case against you. For one he responded to my case in the best way possible. Sure some of it was OMGUS but he legitimately pointed some of the weaknesses of the case. But more importantly he really went after you. No-one else at that point had really been targeting you. Tunk and Jitsu had asked some awkward questions but only Cephiro went balls to the wall. Since then he has been aggressive with his analysis and focused as well. That is my reason for changing. If you read my filter you can see it pretty clearly.
Finally your full write up on Cephiro was this if I recall correctly.
On January 05 2012 12:18 Liquid`Sheth wrote:Yea, thats same for me Andre. Ok, heres what I've got. I didn't actually take the time to read through Cephiro's List completely. I simply saw that a few things on it were pointing out scum and he was worried about me in perticular. Those were things I wanted to see and saw them. However after re-reading them I realize that they don't pressure anyone. Hes being so completely passive and neutral. This is a trick that scum use generally. They don't want to commit to anything because they think that as long as there not stand outish in one way or another they won't get lynched. They live for that center world where they don't contribute much, but seem to. Even fairly recently : Show nested quote +On January 05 2012 09:04 Cephiro wrote:On January 05 2012 07:14 Cephiro wrote: @Jitsu: I'm actually starting to be really suspicious of him at the moment. He had a very active start, even though his content was somewhat fluffy. I've changed my opinion about him since my earlier post, partly due to many people providing good reasoning about his play so far. I am actually wondering a bit as he hasn't said anything since yesterday's start, so I'm interested to hear if he has some actual opinions or reads to give when he comes back. I did not ignore your question. I will however give you an up-dated opinion once Cookie posts the rest of his reads, so please wait until that. (I am waiting for it myself quite eagerly) Its just so bad. He is just following "people providing good reasoning". This may seem like something we should all be doing, and it is. However on night one, if you are going to follow it, you follow it through. Because of this and because my first worry was about Cephiro I'm definetly liking Probulous. I say we lynch Cephiro. The benefits for this are great. We can completely tell about Probulous being town or not (which actually isn't too great, as that means he will probably die, Medic shoould definetly include him in WIFOM if there is a medic though!). And hopefully me as well, as I think hes a good lynch. However if hes town we'll also have a good read on a few other people who are sticking out to him. Perhaps lynching Cephiro will just be who the mafia buss. However I think that its a percentage game. And right now, Cephiro is definetly my highest scum read, ##Vote: Cephiro@CatsNHats -You seem oh so scummy. Whats your take on lynching Cephiro? Would you be willing to join in on this little train we're starting? Anyone else willing to hop on board, don't forget to pack a vote.
Which was straight after my case and this
On January 06 2012 07:02 Liquid`Sheth wrote:Show nested quote +On January 06 2012 06:15 Jitsu wrote:+ Show Spoiler +On January 06 2012 02:30 A Killer Cuppa Tea wrote:Show nested quote +On January 05 2012 23:43 Blurry wrote:On January 05 2012 13:08 CookieMaker wrote:On January 05 2012 12:46 Jitsu wrote: RE: Cookie, Analysis
Damn, you're "Big Read" is of a suspected town player. And another suspected town player.
Instead of posting who you think the Town players are, why don't you actually give us some reads on who the Scum players are? I think that would be more beneficial in a game where finding Mafia matters. Especially since we're 24 hours in and I don't clearly recall you posting any scum tell.
At all. Then it's a good thing I caught up before posting #3. Your evidence was everything I had against Cats. My plan was to transition out of "Sheth should have put more pressure on him" into "... and this is why". I felt like I was getting unlucky after analyzing 4-5 players and coming up with zero good scum reads and only 1-2 town reads (despite the consensus against Ceph, I'm still confident in my read). Finally when I stumble upon a clear winner for wishy-washy of the year award, you've already beaten me to it. Cats was going to be my big expose'. ##Vote for CatsnHats The "I don't have to post analysis because he already said it post" Other than that most of his posts have contributed nothing and have just been filler. Didn't post his reads on any players until he was pressured into doing it. Don't you think these could just as easily be newbslips rather then scumslips? 'least, thats the way it looks to me. Show nested quote +On January 06 2012 01:49 Jitsu wrote:On January 05 2012 20:22 A Killer Cuppa Tea wrote:
1) If you were a Cop (could determine the alignment of somebody during the night), who's alignment would you check and why? 2) If you were a Doc (could save someone from a nightkill), who would you save and why? 3) If you were a Vigilante (town-aligned nightkill) who would you kill and why? 4) If you were a Town-Aligned Roleblocker (could prevent someone from using their night action for a night) who would you block, and why? (Also, remember, an RB can act as a soft-cop. If you block someone and there's no nightkill, you may have blocked the mafia's kill! (Yes i know there's no Vig or RB in this setup.))
5) If you have a vote on someone currently, please explain your vote. 6) If you don't have a vote on somebody, please park your vote on someone. Have an opinion. It doesn't matter if you're wrong. Abstainance lets scum hide amongst you!
There is e secplenty of discussion in the mean-time where questions like these waste more logical thought than is required. If you want to WIFOM the proposed blue specials, do it later, but as of right now, there are better things to discuss, especially with the limited time we have left in the day to center our votes on someone. The DT and Medic are both roles that will need to be smart about who they use it for. Why are you even bringing in a Vig/Role Blocker when they aren't even in the game for the Town? I think there is a better question to be asked right now. Cookie subbed out at a bad time for you Tea. I don't think i'm the only one that is suspicious of the role that Cookie was given. Now, onto the second part that caught my eye. The bolded part at the end - the simple "you." I assume the "Abstinence lets scum hide among "you" refers to the town. However, since I was given the role of VT, I would have worded it as "us." Scum slip this early? Not a good start. I still think that if Cats flips red, you will too. But I also think that you're role is red. On the contrary, i find that asking questions such as these provide responses which can be most telling! I know that there isnt a vig or a blocker in the game right now, but those are the standard four questions i tend to ask in mafia games (i usually play closed setups). Its not so much what you'd do with your role, its your reasoning that proves to be interesting. Incidentally, it appears that you think i am asking these questions in order to wine the actual power roles and scums attitude towards them. This is not the case - i am asking because this is a tool i have always found helpful to help hunt scum! As for the part that you bolded - i thought it was clear that the "You" referred to the people who abstained, not town as a whole. It seems you are clutching at straws! Are you asking me to roleclaim? Because i don't want to do that regardless of what my role is. I've always considered Role Claims to be Bad (with a capital B!) and only to be used as a last resort. I'm nowhere near my last resort yet. After all, i just started playing! I understand that CM has left me in a bit of a poor spot...i'd like to remind you that Newbs often make slips that look scummy but are in fact newbslips. Too many times i've mislynched newbs for these slips! I'd further like to ask that you judge me on the posts that i make if possible (the quantity of which will hopefully rise soon). Whilst i of course understand that this slot wasn't played solely by me, its rather more difficult to defend CM then it is to defend myself, because i dont know what drove his actions, yknow? As for my reads...i'm getting a couple of light ones right now, but i'd rather do it justice and make one Big post (like my Mechanics post) so that i can both collect all my reads in one place and give ample reasoning behind them. I intend to sit down for an hour or so to do this properly later on tonight when i can have an unbroken hour of just mafia. I'll prolly end up writing a couple of paragraphs on each player stating what i think of em. Where did I suggest you role claim? If you view it as such a bad idea, why would you even bring that notion up? Really? It's rather hard to judge you based on you're posts now when we all have our own reads on players now. Just because you came in and subbed out doesn't mean you're role changed, similar to how if I subbed out now, people should still view my replacement as if it was me. Instead of telling us to disregard everything that was posted in you're capacity, come up with reasons now why we should disregard previous play. RE: Gonzaw - It's a scum slip that I said the proposed blue roles, and that DT and Medic need to be smart on who to activate their specials on. I think you're reading way too far into it. I'll say it again, as well as reiterate what has been said many times prior; talking about Blue roles at this point is stupid. We have no reason to even bring it up since this is lynch day, and we don't even know if they are in the game, as you said. RE: Sheth/Votes - Before I even decide to switch my vote to Cephiro, I want to see his response to the accusation post by Probu. That being said, I will have to re-read his entire filter again and make a judgement, but a lot of things Cephiro said early was pretty damning. I have a question Sheth - earlier, you went to sleep teasing us with a post about some posts that were worrying you. The next day, you let us down by not giving us the post you said you were going to because the person under suspicion (Cephiro) came out with a [not very strong] analysis of every player in the game at the time, pretty much saying everyone was town and no one was really scummy. Than you came out and in the next post in the thread, jump on the Cephiro bandwagon, and start trying to get others to jump on it too. Sheth, I've played two (including this game) games with you, but I do know you like to play logically. Can you post you're original feelings about Cephiro, and than how you're thoughts transformed throughout the game from newb null read to scum read? What do you have to say to Cephiro if he said you were slightly neutral to scum? Are you town, Sheth? @Cephiro - Along with you're defense, I have something to add as well. There are a lot of times early in the game where you are pushing the idea that you are town. A lot of what you said seems forced to me. Also, there is a point where you are jumping back and forth between a miss-lynch and no-lynch policy. Reading that from a scum point of view, it's almost like you are trying to put the idea back into the idea of the town. What do you think of Sheth at this time, and why? Yea, I went to bed with some good ideas and wanted to think about it before posting. When I woke up and saw the new post I wanted more time to look at it and I wasn't sure my original point was too valid because of his new post. Around this time Probulous made his full post before I could fully look at Cephiro's post. And after reading Prob's post it rang true with what I was thinking earlier and it invalidated a lot of my "well maybe he is just town and not scum after all" points. (The fact that he was being agressive back towards me, and towards others was what made me cautious These were some of the things that made me think he was scum : "Also, it might even be that the mafia has a roleblocker but the town has no power roles, which renders the mafia roleblocker useless, making the situation even worse for them." This post seemed off. Why would it be important that if a roleblocker from mafia isn't that good if we have no town roles. It just seems like something no town would think of. And the way its said just seems like hes trying really hard to insinuate that its "them" and "the mafia". Then : Anyway, I think that we should try to be provocative and try to raise as much discussion as possible. In my opinion we should aim to lynch someone (hopefully scum) on D1. This also rang bells. Town should never be "provocative", we should pressure. We don't want to create chaos we just want to use logic and pressure people. I geuss thats similar to provocative, but I think there's a difference. And saying that we aim to lynch someone "hopefully scum" just seems so bad. Obviously we want to lynch scum, why would you even say that? Its helpful either way, but clearly we want to lynch scum.. He then changes his opinion on no-lynch seemingly for no reason and says "I'm not entirely convinced on a no-lynch, but I do agree that lynching a townie on D1 is a bad start. I think it comes down to how much information we'll have, if there are any seemingly scumreads I personally think we gain more as town if we try to lynch the scum, since if we hit, we are at a very good advantage." Why would he say hes "not entirely convinced on a no-lynch. Just so many things that I think a mafia would make. Little things, but when added up they say a lot to me. Then he says "Or random accusations to get people to talk." You don't do random accusations, you find reasons and you accuse intelligently. Only mafia want things to be random as far as accusations go because they have a higher percent to not get hit. All of these posts had me really worried when they were added together. I guess I should have brought all of this up earlier, but I thought Prob's post was good enough to get us lynching him. And these are my points after going back and re-thinking about it. So jitsu, theres why I think hes scum. I am a townie, hopefully you'll see from my arguments. As to what I'd say to Cephiro if he says I'm null-scum, "Thats exactly what I'd expect scum to say"
First paragraph doesn't say anything other than my case was good. You were really stretching with the roleblocker thing. You seem to enjoy discussing blue roles, particularly townie ones. Cephiro writes a line about how mafia could have roleblocker with no power roles and that makes him mafia? Why would know town think of that? If nothing else this points the stupidity of discussing possible setups with no information. I stand by my original statement that discussing power roles adds nothing and is detrimental for exactly this reason. It gives scum the opportunity to cast doubt on pointless analysis.
Speaking of stretching, your point about him not being "entirely convinced" was acrobatic. He says we would prefer a lynch over a no-lynch in that same paragraph. Cephiro did himself no favours by being placatory on day 1 but this is hardly damning. Especially since you don't paint a picture of how this scum motivated. You acknowledge it is a stretch (little things) but apparently they say a lot to you. Thanks for trying to convince the rest of us. If you have scum in your sights, you push hard to get them lynched. Why would you give up? Especially since there are other strong cases against him.
Finally, I happen to agree with Cephiro that being provocative is certainly a townie trait. Responses are what sink mafia. Random accusations are all you have that early in the game. See the first Newbie Mafia for how they can out mafia. You say it gives mafia a higher percentage of not being hit, well that makes no sense. If mafia don't have to respond to anything they can easily move a vote to scummy townie. Much easier than if they have been asked questions, and have to take a stand.
In essence your case against Cephiro was based on mine and some serious reaching, which you even acknowledge. But that is enough to vote for him?
You didn't mind lynching Cephiro because you know he is town. From my reading it seems you hoped my case would be strong enough to convince people and when Tunk didn't want to budge you moved the vote to AKCT. You knew I was suspicious of him due to my case so of course I would vote for him and that my case (and others) could be used to convince others. I made a mistake there, which I regret. I should have known a miss-lynch was coming with the way that train got going. Unfortunately my major scum-read at the time was busy proving his townieness. That left Cookie and Cats, and I was more certain of Cookie than of Cats.
This time I won't be swayed, you will be lynched and if not I will hold the others accountable for their decisions to let you live.
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On January 08 2012 13:04 Liquid`Sheth wrote:Show nested quote +On January 08 2012 13:01 Probulous wrote:On January 08 2012 11:58 CatsnHats wrote:On January 05 2012 12:57 Liquid`Sheth wrote:
Also, your crazy to not think that there is no relation between who you analyse and find scummy and whether or not you are scum. If the person we follow along with the most picks 3 town in a row, theres a solid chance hes mafia. If the person we follow kills 3 mafia in a row, theres a solid chance hes town. I don't know how you can't agree with that.
@Everyone The phrase I bolded is really interesting to me. It seems like the town (including myself) has followed Probulous without much question. He has posted so much many long posts so often that we have written him off as town without thought and reanalysis. Do you think that Probulous is getting by without enough criticism? He's not a D2 lynch target by any means, but do you think that is true? This is NOT FOS, I'm just asking a question. Cats, you still aren't standing up for yourself. You are right to point out that everyone seems to have me pegged as town without thought. Why do you have to say I am not a day2 lynch target by any means and that this is not a FOS. Stop undermining yourself. Just ask the question and provide your own analysis. Before I go, heres another post. I posted basically this same thing earlier, letting him out of saying something undermining himself and you got on my case over it. You're doing the same thing right now!!! How you can't see the hypocricy is beyond me.
It is not hypocrisy, I want him to take a stand so we can evaluate his decisions. I didn't tell him I had no reason for saying what I am doing. You did. He clearly thinks he should look into my play, which is something I have been telling people to do. I am not letting him out anything, I am forcing him to make himself heard. He wanted to know how to get some credibility, well here it is. Take a stand, I didn't say that I don't think he is scummy, or anything which undermines my earlier read. I am getting him to make it clear where he stands so others can see what I see.
There is nothing hypocritical about my post, I am telling him the same thing I have said since the start. If you want to prove you're town, take a stand, provide evidence and push it hard.
You did not do that, you told him grow a spine and then in the very next post said you had no reason to target him. That is undermining your position. That is letting someone go.
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On January 08 2012 13:44 CatsnHats wrote:Show nested quote +On January 08 2012 13:22 Liquid`Sheth wrote: I'm staying up till Responsibility ends. (My last game here). So please post while I'm still here Prob! Or Cats! I don't feel comfortable voting for you Sheth. I think Xeris, Gretorp, AnxiousHippo, and Blurry all have had as much scummy behavior as you, just less activity. I think you are getting targeted because you have a higher quantity of posts, making it easier for you to be quoted/analyzed. My target right now would be Blurry or AnxiousHippo, mainly because they are the most likely to respond at this point. Blurry has made 11 posts overall (an amount big enough to be remembered, but not enough to be picked apart like you), 1post yesterday, which is WIFOM filler Show nested quote +On January 06 2012 00:53 Blurry wrote: Okay, my last post for the day:
Staying on CM/Tea as I am still unsure about Cephiro.
Other than that, I'm sorry I couldn't contribute more this first day as I am still new to this and am not sure what to look for in terms of reading players but by going over players posts I am getting a good idea and I'm sure my analysis quality will steadily improve over the course of the game.
One thing that strikes me looking back at all this is CM voting for CatsinHats. If CM/Tea is indeed scum then I think this provides evidence towards cats not being scum as I dont think CM would have been that meta especially with the holes in his play he has already shown. This can't be assumed however so I would still be suspicious. and one post today, which was WIFOM filler. Show nested quote +On January 07 2012 17:19 Blurry wrote: I've been trying to figure out why someone would target Tunkeg rather than someone like Probulous (posted the most analysis and was one of the most assertive players thus far). I think this could potentially tell us certain things.
Probulous posted his reads on all the players in the game categorizing them by who he thought was town/neutral/mafia. While this does not make him seem any more scummy. My instinct on this is that a player who is mafia is categorized by him as being town and this cover would be useful to the mafia in some way.
My other thought is that Tunkeg was pressuring someone that was mafia in a way that made him the biggest threat. He was pressuring Gonzaw and Cephiro and also did a little bit on Sheth. Since Cephiro was already cast under so much suspicion by Probulous I infer that there is a high chance that either Gonzaw or Sheth, or both are scum and am going to re-read their posts thoroughly. My initial instinct is that Sheth is the more likely candidate as he has literally posted zero analysis and has simply pressured or challenged peoples points rather than helping us weed out scum. His big analysis post was 1-2 sentences on each player. Not enough content. Thoughts?
Cats, think of it his way.
Is Sheth scum?
Forget about the lurkers, they will get replaced or mod-killed and we and deal with them later. This question doesn't involve them. You either think Sheth is scum or you don't, I have presented my case do you agree with it? I am pushing for Sheth's lynch and will continue to do so because of what he has written implicates him as scum. We have a much better chance of lynching scum that have posted because we can make reads. Lynching a lurker becomes taking a shot in the dark which mafia can easily sway to a lurking townie. If you don't believe all mafia are lurking then it makes sense to find the one that isn't. That one is Sheth.
Can I get a simple yes or no as to whether you will be voting for Sheth or not? Thanks.
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I am not scared of Cats if he is mafia. He is so scummy now that he little to no influence on the town. He is not a threat (sorry Cats but that is plainly true). Sheth, clearly has influence.
He has played this game very well but not well enough. I would implore you that if you let him live tonight, he can take what we have written and change his game to suit. Cats play does not look like someone who has a team behind them. It is wishy-wasy and bandwagonny as anything, but it isn't dangerous. Hell he doesn't even know who he is voting for. No Cats, is not a problem.
If he is mafia, he is a mafia with no town cred. In all likelihood he will get lynched either today or tomorrow but he will never be listened to. He has had too many chances. Sheth however is dangerous. He has shown himself capable enough to sow doubt, let him live and he will do more.
Sheth is trying to push the lynch onto someone easy, someone who has not played this game well. I am willing to put my credibility on the line that Sheth is scum. Last lynch, I capitulated instead of forcing my case. I was certain that Cookie was scum but even more so of Cephiro. Then when Ceph showed how he can actually play I realised my mistake, I accepted Cookie's lynch because he was already on my list, but unfortunately it allowed others to sheep. There was no other lynch being pushed (a sure sign of a miss-lynch coming).
Well today we don't have that problem, everyone has a simple choice. Who is the better lynch, Sheth or Cats?
Clearly Sheth is more dangerous, and Cats play looks similar to Cookie's, except that he has tried to defend himself (terribly but the effort is there). If you accept that a mafia Sheth is more dangerous than a mafia Cats, the question is quite simple, is Sheth scum?
So far we have the following votes:
Sheth (4) (Probulous, Gonzaw, Blurry the blatant sheep, Cephiro)
Cats (2) (Jitsu, Sheth)
We are waiting the following to vote Cats AnxiousHippo Xeris Gretorp
Come on guys, don't do this last minute. Take a stand and lynch Sheth
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Sorry Ceph, didn't meant to split your analysis :p
Updated vote count
Sheth (4) (Probulous, Gonzaw, Blurry the band-wagoner, Cephiro) Cats (2) (Jitsu, Sheth) Blurry (1) (Cats)
@Jitsu, I am not switching to Cats and it seems neither is Cephiro. You said you have Sheth pegged as scum but Cats more so, well if that is true then please change your vote to Sheth. We must lynch today, and we must lynch Sheth.
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Thanks grey, any update on whether we will be getting replacements for Xeris and Gretorp?
Gretorp's last post was
On January 05 2012 12:09 Gretorp wrote:+ Show Spoiler + And i will be doing a huge post otnight most likely just got to get caught up since it grew a lot
and Xeris was
On January 05 2012 18:58 Xeris wrote:+ Show Spoiler + I've been quiet because I work around 15-16 hours per day, and realistically, I'll only get to check this thread probably: once in the morning, once or twice at work, and in the night (nowish).
I talked about the badness of random lynching because the first few pages of posts kept mentioning random lynching. This thread balloons crazily and I don't have the time to read in detail every post. So when I see 15-20 posts about random number generators and lynching people, I want to explain why I think that's bad.
Anyway, it seems like the suspicion points at Cephira and CM (who just got replaced?). Brb reading some of the posts more carefully
Meh. I'm not convinced of anything. I'll follow along with a lynch if people are convinced and just going to go for it- but I stand by my belief of not killing on the first day. Seriously, thinking people are scummy because of stupid analysis skills and bad/inconsistent posts is really silly.
Although perhaps I have no clue about online mafia, anyway that's basically it from me. Will check in the morning, glgl
Both more than 24 hours ago and after a warning for no vote. It is unfair on us to try and play with 20% of the players missing. Thanks heaps!
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On January 09 2012 05:29 Liquid`Sheth wrote: 7. Probulous -- Townie at the start. Sooo townie at the start. Has recently started making a few logical mistakes. (Both against myself and Cephiro). Implying that Cephiro is a confirmed townie has me looking at you so much right now, but as of now my brain can't make sense of you. Null
Just wanted to point out that Cephiro is by no means a confirmed townie. His play on Day 1 was terrible and deserved the case presented, however his play since has been incisive and focused. He was the first the really go after Sheth, which would be one hell of a bus if both were mafia. I know its WIFOM but I highly doubt both are mafia, it just doesn't fit the arguments presented. So it comes down to deciding between them. Sheth's play has been consistent throughout this game whilst Cephiro's improved dramatically after my case. Thus I think Cephiro is more likely to be town than mafia.
This does not mean that he is confirmed town, I wasn't even implying that. I simply said he looks more townie after his response to my case. The only confirmed town I have right now is Jistu, simply because of his play. Gonz I am almost certain of and Cephiro is looking good.
The rest of you, pick up your game.
Voting for Sheth would be one way to do just that.
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I admire your courage Cats, when Sheth flips mafia you are going to look really really bad. Not because you are pointing out mistakes in Cephiro's case (you are correct in that instance) but because you are pointing out small issues which don't address the whole argument. Ceph's point is simple, if your number one scum read is Ceph you nail him to the wall. Nothing Sheth provided looks like that, it is all soft pressure. This allows him to back off when a decent response is received without looking stupid.
You don't care about being in the spotlight if you are town. Look at my case, I pushed Ceph's case so hard that I look like an idiot for changing my position, but I don't care because he was my best read. Mafia however love to cast suspicion around particularly if it can lead to a miss-lynch of someone who has been posting a lot. But of course they don't want to create the case and take the responsibility for the miss-lynch, much better to follow on from someone else's analysis.
The motivation behind how the cases are presented clearly shows the difference between mafia and town. Sheth knows Ceph is town, so he has to choose between Ceph and other townies, so he soft pressures him on some obvious fluff. Then when my case comes up, he jumps on the wagon like it is nobody's business. If he was town he would have done that before my case was presented. Even afterwards he didn't attempt to convince others to vote for Ceph. he has to be asked to present his case. As town you want to prove your target is scum. When it appeared that AKCT was more likely to be lynched he switched courses. He knew I would vote for AKCT because I had presented my case already and he knew AKCT was town, so why not? He gets to lynch a townie either way.
I admit I should have pushed harder at that point. i should have questioned Sheth about his motivations, I let him go. Ceph response had me all confused and it let Sheth determine the first lynch, well not today. Today Sheth hangs.
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On January 09 2012 08:19 Liquid`Sheth wrote:Show nested quote +On January 09 2012 07:33 Probulous wrote: I am not scared of Cats if he is mafia. He is so scummy now that he little to no influence on the town. He is not a threat (sorry Cats but that is plainly true). Sheth, clearly has influence.
He has played this game very well but not well enough. I would implore you that if you let him live tonight, he can take what we have written and change his game to suit. Cats play does not look like someone who has a team behind them. It is wishy-wasy and bandwagonny as anything, but it isn't dangerous. Hell he doesn't even know who he is voting for. No Cats, is not a problem.
If he is mafia, he is a mafia with no town cred. In all likelihood he will get lynched either today or tomorrow but he will never be listened to. He has had too many chances. Sheth however is dangerous. He has shown himself capable enough to sow doubt, let him live and he will do more.
Sheth is trying to push the lynch onto someone easy, someone who has not played this game well. I am willing to put my credibility on the line that Sheth is scum. Last lynch, I capitulated instead of forcing my case. I was certain that Cookie was scum but even more so of Cephiro. Then when Ceph showed how he can actually play I realised my mistake, I accepted Cookie's lynch because he was already on my list, but unfortunately it allowed others to sheep. There was no other lynch being pushed (a sure sign of a miss-lynch coming).
Well today we don't have that problem, everyone has a simple choice. Who is the better lynch, Sheth or Cats?
Clearly Sheth is more dangerous, and Cats play looks similar to Cookie's, except that he has tried to defend himself (terribly but the effort is there). If you accept that a mafia Sheth is more dangerous than a mafia Cats, the question is quite simple, is Sheth scum?
So far we have the following votes:
Sheth (4) (Probulous, Gonzaw, Blurry the blatant sheep, Cephiro)
Cats (2) (Jitsu, Sheth)
We are waiting the following to vote Cats AnxiousHippo Xeris Gretorp
Come on guys, don't do this last minute. Take a stand and lynch Sheth This post is so bad again. I get your worried about me being "dangerous" and all. But I don't see how I am. Its all based on analysis and now your not even going to use your logic, your just calling me dangerous and trying to get people scared of me. You even in this post call Cats "So scummy now". If you think hes so scummy you just want me dead because I'm dangerous to you and not following along with you. If it comes down to it at the end, would you move your vote to Cats to stop a no-lynch Prob ?
Are you seriously suggesting that you are not more dangerous than Cats? Cats has zero town cred, you had plenty and the fact that Jitsu still hasn't moved his vote suggest the same. You have pushed arguments and swayed town. It was you who convinced me to change my vote after which remarkably, AKCT was lynched within half an hour. I am taking responsibility for my vote, I have explained it. In this particular instance I look as guilty as you, but I had my reasons. Like I said Ceph's respons confused the hell out of me, but you, your only reason for not lynching Ceph was to avoid a no-lynch. You still thought (and do) think he is scum but you didn't even try and convince others. You didn't even try and avoid AKCT lynch, why? Why, if Cephiro is your number one scum read do you just give up when two people vote in another direction?
I had a reason to change, I started to think Cephiro was not mafia. You still had him as your number one mafia pick and yet you suggested we switch. Given how many votes rolled in after mine, it would have been possible to lynch Ceph. But no, it was easier to lynch AKCT and then go into day 2 hoping Ceph was still looking scummy. That way you could convince us to lynch him Day 2. This had the added benefit that you didn't have to post your "nail him to the wall" read until much later.
Sorry Sheth but you had no real reason to give up your case on Ceph so easily. That was damning in my eyes.
When you're away for a while PLEASE READ THE THREAD. WTH!? JUST BUSSING ME FOR NO REASON. YOUR SO MAFIA.
You do realise the only way that Ceph could be bussing you is if your both mafia?
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