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Newbie Mini Mafia II
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Cephiro
Finland1934 Posts
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Cephiro
Finland1934 Posts
When someone is killed, is only their alignment revealed, or will their role also be revealed? Is this the case whether it's a lynch or a nightkill, or is there a difference depending on the way the person got killed? Thank you | ||
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Cephiro
Finland1934 Posts
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Cephiro
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Cephiro
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Cephiro
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Even though none of us knows the exact set up, I would have to argue that we as town have a much better starting point. Considering the case that the mafia would have a role blocker, it will most likely be less useful until later game when people are starting to have better reads on each other. If the town has both the medic and detective, it is quite likely that they will be able to do something useful. (Mafia role blocker would have 9 persons to choose from, since he/she would know the 3 mafia.) That leaves a 2/9 = around 22% chance of roleblocking on the first day, since I'm quite sure there will be no roleclaims this early. On the other hand, the medic has a very small chance of blocking the first kill on N1 (1/11 * 8/9 ~ 8% chance), but the detective has a chance of as much as 27% finding scum on N1 if he doesn't die. (Which would be about 24% in total, which is still higher than the chance of mafia roleblocking.) Note: You may notice I'm into maths a lot.... Also, it might even be that the mafia has a roleblocker but the town has no power roles, which renders the mafia roleblocker useless, making the situation even worse for them. Anyway, I think that we should try to be provocative and try to raise as much discussion as possible. In my opinion we should aim to lynch someone (hopefully scum) on D1. A no-lynch would essentially give the mafia a free kill, and not necessarily get us that much more information. Also... On January 04 2012 10:12 Probulous wrote: Come on town let the streets flow with red red blood! What a lovely way to start the game... but on the other hand, I doubt even a newbie scum player would slip that early, even though it could be done on purpose to make us think even a newbie wouldn't slip such, but in fact being scum anyway? | ||
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Cephiro
Finland1934 Posts
On January 04 2012 10:49 AnxiousHippo wrote: I'm pretty sure scum are sometimes referred to as Reds, I guess he was trying to make a pun? I don't think it was a slip. Myeah, You're probably right, since as I said, I wouldn't expect even a newbie mafia slip this early. Gotta be careful about puns though, they could be misunderstood. Even though it actually could be good scumbaiting, fishing for the player's reactions for better reads? Well, in any case we'll have to get some discussion going on. Or random accusations to get people to talk. (Or maybe I'm just too eager regardless of the fact I know most people in Europe won't be awake at a time like this.) | ||
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Cephiro
Finland1934 Posts
On January 04 2012 11:05 Probulous wrote: Lovely maths, does it say anything  For one Mafia cannot have a roleblocker with no town power roles. The only setup with a roleblocker is one where we have both a medic and DT. Secondly, the maths doesn't help us actually do anything, unless there is something I am missing. Thirdly a no-lynch is better than a miss-lynch. I will be more happy to not lynch someone than lynch someone I think is town. Yes it was a bad pun, I am not sure how it could be a scum tell. So much for trying to be entertaining  Well, it was mainly some statistics to prove how the situation is better for town in case the mafia has a role blocker and we have power roles. Also, there is a set up which contains both power roles (DT+Medic for town), and the mafia roleblocker. You can check the opening post for the 4 possible setups. I'm not entirely convinced on a no-lynch, but I do agree that lynching a townie on D1 is a bad start. I think it comes down to how much information we'll have, if there are any seemingly scumreads I personally think we gain more as town if we try to lynch the scum, since if we hit, we are at a very good advantage. And even if we don't, it will raise much more discussion and easier reads depending on who has been voting for who and so on. | ||
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Cephiro
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On January 04 2012 11:27 Probulous wrote: My bad, I missed the second one in the list So essentially, there is a 50/50 chance of every role. How is this useful? I don't see how speculating over power roles helps. They don't change how we play. You still have to actively scum hunt and call out bullshit. Once someone claims or the night actions become apparent this info may be useful, but I don't like the idea of discussing it now.What do you want to do today? I am happy prodding people to post and then checking their response. Voting for those not contributing. Heh, such happens. But yeah, the statistics won't be very useful yet, but they are good to know anyway. (I study statistics at uni, and I love to try and apply them into everything.) I am quite sure it will become useful sooner or later, especially if we get the chance of backtracking roles. What I want to do today is covered in my post you already quoted. I would like us to be able to raise enough discussion and get a decent shot at who could be scum, since 2 mafia versus 8-9 townies (depending on if one dies N1 or not) would be an incredibly good situation for us. CookieMaker has a good point though, there is a 50% chance that there is a DT in the game, and buying him time to find the scum isn't a bad idea either. But we can't be certain if there is one or not, which why I'm still slightly favour for trying to lynch scum today, at least for now. We have quite a bit of time on us though, so if it seems like we can't get good reads on anyone and it's just a huge mess, we can still go for the no-lynch. Also, no problem for staying up late, I'm very bad at sleeping early and I'm so excited to play my first game of Forum Mafia! I will be going to sleep in 20 minutes or so though. | ||
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Cephiro
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On January 04 2012 12:11 gonzaw wrote: So this is your first forum game ever? Not just first game on TL? You seem to know quite a bit about the game though, may explain why? Also, I'm fairly good with statistics/probabilities myself (just ask Jackal58), and I use them fairly in mafia games. If the situation arises, it can be very helpful, as long as everything in the game is RNGed. I assume this setup is RNGed, right? The day is 48 horus long, right? I would suggest pressure voting lurkers/inactives after 24 hours or so are past. Although I don't know if you guys do that here or not. Yeah, it's my first forum game ever. Haven't played this anywhere else either. I've read through quite a bunch of advanced games on different forums though, and I generally consider myself good at mindgames or understanding what people think / why they do something etc. So I'm really excited to see if it's correlates to success in here. Yeah, you heard right, watch out mafia! I am going to sleep now though. I will re-read the thread (especially the new posts) a few times once I wake up and will try to join in as much as I can. If you have a hard time of trying to find out who is scum, then please do the town a favor and at least try to find some most-likely-town reads, since even that will help us narrow down the possible lynch. I do agree that we could pressure vote lurkers/inactives later on in D1, hopefully forcing them to defend themselves and give us better reads. | ||
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Cephiro
Finland1934 Posts
Also, my apologies if I'm wrong with someone's gender, I'll make a mean generalization and expect everyone to be a male until noted otherwise. Player List: 1.CookieMaker For now I'm leaning slightly towards town on him, even though he is quite in-favour of the no-lynch possibility. But I think that may be due to the fact that it's his first game, and he may not have read through/followed many mafia games before. So I'm thinking he's rather be safe than sorry, but hopefully he'll realize the amount of information even a possible mislynch will give us, not even mentioning the huge lead we can get if we nail a mafia on D1. His posts could have slightly more actual content, but he's trying so for now he's okay to me. 2.Liquid`Sheth Hasn't posted anything useful aside from welcoming people and pressuring CatsnHats. Sure, pressuring at this point has to be done, but deciding to pick on one person for no real reason at this point and providing no other content? Hopefully he means well and just tries to make sure CatsnHats plays pro-town regardless of being new, I mean, Sheth does have 2 previous games of TL mafia as a base of experience. But for now, I am reading something between neutral or slightly scum. I dare you to prove me your innocence, so I'll be waiting for your morning post. 3.AnxiousHippo Doesn't seem to have any idea of what he should be doing, but I guess it's understandable since it's only his second game. I am hoping to hear more from you, since you haven't posted enough content to make any kind of read on you. Neutral. 5.Tunkeg Good forewarn on not being able to answer at the start of the game. Appareantly was on the winning side in his first game. He seems like an aggressive type of person, wanting to start the accusations and pressure to get some discussion going on. Thinks that D1 lynch is a must, but backs it up with some very good points. Took the first vote playing it relatively safely, voting for a lurker who hasn't posted yet. Clearly wants something to happen, but I am for now unsure if his method will be very successful. Neutral for now, but if you keep the activity up I should be able to get either a slight-town or slight-scum read on you soon. 6.Jitsu Seems to want to actively participate, and most of his posts so far are convincing people to lynch on D1. Hasn't posted any actual content other than that though, so I will still stand on a neutral read. I am hoping to hear more content from you soon, I need to get more reads. 7.Xeris All I can say is, no content, not a good sign. Neutral. 8.Gretorp Same as above, neutral. 9.Gonzaw Answering people's questions, trying to explain some of the basic stuff that should be understood, looks good to me. I like the way he pushed to know more about how I seem to know about the game, so he seems like he isn't taking anything for granted. Also suggesting pressure voting to get things going. I have a slight town-read here. 10.Blurry Seems to be in favour of no-lynching, wanting to stay on the safe side. Hasn't talked about anything but different possibilities if a mafia roleblocker exists. Not useful. (Okay, I'll have to admit that my statistics post at start wasn't necessarily very useful either, but I've been at least trying to post other content as well.) Neutral for now, but if you won't be posting more, I would lean on slightly scum. 11.Probulous Being very active at the start, and the play seems really town-favouring. Constantly asking for opinions and explaining his reasoning. I like his opinion on lynching, definitely wanting to lynch mafia but still keeping in mind the possibility of being careful incase we don't get any reads on D1. Hopefully we will have some scum reads that we can go for so no-lynch won't be necessary. Pressuring the people that should be on according to timezone but haven't posted. I would have to say you are my strongest town-read so far, I want to hear more of your opinions when you're back. 12.CatsnHats Being a new player, it's understandable that he's a bit confused, but you really need to learn that you CAN'T TRUST anyone but yourself. Whatever you think about the situation or someone's reads, say it, don't just agree or disagree randomly. I'm kind of worried of the chance that you are a townie whom the mafia would be able to talk around easily, but I hope you'll prove me wrong. (about the convincing part.) Or you could be mafia that is pretending to be a super-newbie town on his first game... who knows. But you're neutral so far. Start posting your opinions! I'm not going to vote yet myself, but I will join the pressure voting in a few hours if Xeris and Gretorp aren't going to turn up. | ||
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On January 05 2012 01:10 Tunkeg wrote: What is it that makes you think CookieMaker is slightly town? You have listed alot of anti-town things about him but not one pro-town thing. He had a very good start in my opinion, posting actively and talking about the different possibilities. I also like the fact that even though he is (or at least was) in favour of the no-lynch, he didn't give up on his thoughts just like that, but was sticking up for himself and why he thinks it's a good idea. I do have to admit that his last posts are quite fluffy, which is why I'm only carefully and only slightly leaning towards town on him for now. Jitsu had a few very good points about him though, which I slightly agree with. But for now I will still stick to my opinion about slightly town, until he posts more. He is on the edge of neutral and slightly town to me though. Also, I am finding myself on thinking of Jitsu as slightly town now. His last post was exactly what I wanted to see from him. On the other hand, I am still not sure about you. I think you are going slightly overboard with how much you are asking other's opinions, but not providing as much of your own. You have been suspecting quite a lot of people this early, and to what I see, there are two possibilities. Either you are mafia and trying to confuse people by trying to accuse a bit of everyone, or then you are just playing aggressive town, fishing for reactions for easier reads. I certainly hope you are the latter. But I remain neutral on you for now. | ||
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On January 05 2012 01:13 Gretorp wrote: Tuneg, It doesnt make sense to vote me. If you have watched any NASL or seen me play mafia, you know i'm genius level but inexperienced with mafia. ALL times i've been in tl mafia, i've been a townie so my ability play townie is better than mafia. If you take my genius brain and then apply the situations, the EV for me in general is positive to the point where you dont want to vote me. But you probably know this, hence you want to kick me off because youre a mafia. SO I VOTE YOU, AND YOUR COUNTRY. #VOTE TUNEG To be honest, I find your post extremely confusing and absolutely lacking of any information. All that blabber about you being genius but inexperienced but still genius and having a high EV? (Expected Value for those who don't know). Start posting some content or I'll point my finger of suspicion at you. That is not a good post to start with, you better provide more analysis and opinions after reading the read through a few times. @ CatsnHats, slightly better. What do you think about Tunkeg's aggressive playstyle? | ||
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On January 05 2012 02:24 Tunkeg wrote: @Ceph and Cats You guys say I have been suspicious to many players allready. Well, then you missread me, I am only suspicious to CM atm. xeris and Gretorp I am not suspicious of as of yet, just saying I will vote for them if they don't step up. In my post to Blurry I didn't say I think he is suspicious, only that he haven't contributed greatly yet. Ceph you said you think I have made to many questions posts and to little content posts. Well, to me content is opinions and analyzis of others play, and in my opinion I have allready made more content than you, including your day one analyzis post. I will give you credit for putting it out there, and it might lead to some discussion, but I think your reads are to vague and therefor the value of it isn't the greatest. In closing I will say that I am not suspicious of you two as of yet, so there will be no missunderstanding. I see, good of you to clarify that. After re-reading your filter a few times, I personally think that you have posted a lot of opinions, but not that much analysis. I do see your point what you're getting at, and I also do understand your opinion about my analysis post. I do have to agree with you they don't tell that much yet, but I am trying to provide others an idea of my opinions at the moment, and raising dicussion to help me clarify my reads. Might also have to do with me still being excited to get this game started. Hopefully they will answer your question posts seriously so we'll get more content thanks to you. I am not suscpicious of you either, but your recent answer enables me to get a better understanding of your playstyle, which I thank you for. About your question as of Jitsu's post, it seems like he likes to concentrate his play on a few persons, which is very understandable. For me that post is making me lean to slightly-town on him, but I would like to see him take contact to more persons and his opinions about others too. If he isolates himself to only put pressure on these two it can have it's good sides, but at least I want to hear more of his thoughts before I say anything. He hasn't posted very much yet, but I still don't think he's scum. | ||
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On January 05 2012 03:05 Jitsu wrote: There are reasons for this. And there hasn't been a major reason to post a lot yet. I think I've spoken a fair amount in the posts I have written. Quality of quantity. I see what you mean. But regardless of what your reasons are, you need to be available enough so that we can get a read on you. Not being able to get any kind of read on you doesn't help your case at all. But I'll trust you... for now. | ||
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On January 05 2012 03:58 Liquid`Sheth wrote: Ahhh yea. Gretorp getting busy. I like it. Were going to get some scum. Ok, well, I'm going to analyse some games for a bit, as I have to work. However before I go, I geuss I'll point out one thing. Everyone seems to be accusing everyone. It doesn't help, because we know its just one persons pressure and honestly we assume its fake pressure, because after all its day1 and we don't have any great reads. So, instead of this I recomend we get behind one person and see if they can tell us why they ARE NOT mafia. I was planning on leaning on Cephiro, for his post here : + Show Spoiler + On January 04 2012 10:42 Cephiro wrote: I'll have to say CookieMaker provides a few good points to start with. Even though none of us knows the exact set up, I would have to argue that we as town have a much better starting point. Considering the case that the mafia would have a role blocker, it will most likely be less useful until later game when people are starting to have better reads on each other. If the town has both the medic and detective, it is quite likely that they will be able to do something useful. (Mafia role blocker would have 9 persons to choose from, since he/she would know the 3 mafia.) That leaves a 2/9 = around 22% chance of roleblocking on the first day, since I'm quite sure there will be no roleclaims this early. On the other hand, the medic has a very small chance of blocking the first kill on N1 (1/11 * 8/9 ~ 8% chance), but the detective has a chance of as much as 27% finding scum on N1 if he doesn't die. (Which would be about 24% in total, which is still higher than the chance of mafia roleblocking.) Note: You may notice I'm into maths a lot.... Also, it might even be that the mafia has a roleblocker but the town has no power roles, which renders the mafia roleblocker useless, making the situation even worse for them. Anyway, I think that we should try to be provocative and try to raise as much discussion as possible. In my opinion we should aim to lynch someone (hopefully scum) on D1. A no-lynch would essentially give the mafia a free kill, and not necessarily get us that much more information. Also... What a lovely way to start the game... but on the other hand, I doubt even a newbie scum player would slip that early, even though it could be done on purpose to make us think even a newbie wouldn't slip such, but in fact being scum anyway? It comes down to a wall of text that tell us nothing. It just makes it look like hes contributing a lot when in fact he hasn't come up with a new opinion and his others posts are very non-committal. Just like wishy washy, things, and I thought it was just weird. However this morning you posted + Show Spoiler + On January 05 2012 00:16 Cephiro wrote: Time for a D1 analysis! Obviously I'll leave myself out, but if someone wants to know more about my opinions / ask why I'm in favor of something, please go ahead, discussion is what we need at the moment. Also, my apologies if I'm wrong with someone's gender, I'll make a mean generalization and expect everyone to be a male until noted otherwise. Player List: 1.CookieMaker For now I'm leaning slightly towards town on him, even though he is quite in-favour of the no-lynch possibility. But I think that may be due to the fact that it's his first game, and he may not have read through/followed many mafia games before. So I'm thinking he's rather be safe than sorry, but hopefully he'll realize the amount of information even a possible mislynch will give us, not even mentioning the huge lead we can get if we nail a mafia on D1. His posts could have slightly more actual content, but he's trying so for now he's okay to me. 2.Liquid`Sheth Hasn't posted anything useful aside from welcoming people and pressuring CatsnHats. Sure, pressuring at this point has to be done, but deciding to pick on one person for no real reason at this point and providing no other content? Hopefully he means well and just tries to make sure CatsnHats plays pro-town regardless of being new, I mean, Sheth does have 2 previous games of TL mafia as a base of experience. But for now, I am reading something between neutral or slightly scum. I dare you to prove me your innocence, so I'll be waiting for your morning post. 3.AnxiousHippo Doesn't seem to have any idea of what he should be doing, but I guess it's understandable since it's only his second game. I am hoping to hear more from you, since you haven't posted enough content to make any kind of read on you. Neutral. 5.Tunkeg Good forewarn on not being able to answer at the start of the game. Appareantly was on the winning side in his first game. He seems like an aggressive type of person, wanting to start the accusations and pressure to get some discussion going on. Thinks that D1 lynch is a must, but backs it up with some very good points. Took the first vote playing it relatively safely, voting for a lurker who hasn't posted yet. Clearly wants something to happen, but I am for now unsure if his method will be very successful. Neutral for now, but if you keep the activity up I should be able to get either a slight-town or slight-scum read on you soon. 6.Jitsu Seems to want to actively participate, and most of his posts so far are convincing people to lynch on D1. Hasn't posted any actual content other than that though, so I will still stand on a neutral read. I am hoping to hear more content from you soon, I need to get more reads. 7.Xeris All I can say is, no content, not a good sign. Neutral. 8.Gretorp Same as above, neutral. 9.Gonzaw Answering people's questions, trying to explain some of the basic stuff that should be understood, looks good to me. I like the way he pushed to know more about how I seem to know about the game, so he seems like he isn't taking anything for granted. Also suggesting pressure voting to get things going. I have a slight town-read here. 10.Blurry Seems to be in favour of no-lynching, wanting to stay on the safe side. Hasn't talked about anything but different possibilities if a mafia roleblocker exists. Not useful. (Okay, I'll have to admit that my statistics post at start wasn't necessarily very useful either, but I've been at least trying to post other content as well.) Neutral for now, but if you won't be posting more, I would lean on slightly scum. 11.Probulous Being very active at the start, and the play seems really town-favouring. Constantly asking for opinions and explaining his reasoning. I like his opinion on lynching, definitely wanting to lynch mafia but still keeping in mind the possibility of being careful incase we don't get any reads on D1. Hopefully we will have some scum reads that we can go for so no-lynch won't be necessary. Pressuring the people that should be on according to timezone but haven't posted. I would have to say you are my strongest town-read so far, I want to hear more of your opinions when you're back. 12.CatsnHats Being a new player, it's understandable that he's a bit confused, but you really need to learn that you CAN'T TRUST anyone but yourself. Whatever you think about the situation or someone's reads, say it, don't just agree or disagree randomly. I'm kind of worried of the chance that you are a townie whom the mafia would be able to talk around easily, but I hope you'll prove me wrong. (about the convincing part.) Or you could be mafia that is pretending to be a super-newbie town on his first game... who knows. But you're neutral so far. Start posting your opinions! I'm not going to vote yet myself, but I will join the pressure voting in a few hours if Xeris and Gretorp aren't going to turn up. Which has some negatives and actually contribues some, so I'll back off for now. Kinda ironic that you wanted me to post my read today and my read was on you. @Tunkeg we shall see. CatsnHats what do you think about this Gretorp guys first too posts. Good / bad / scummy?!? Okay, I'll admit that my statistical starting post maybe wasn't the best opening post ever, but at least I tried, unlike many others... can't blame me for being excited and trying to contribute! To be honest, I don't understand your claim about me being wishy-washy at the start, when I was clearly trying to push for some points. For example: On January 04 2012 10:42 Cephiro wrote: Anyway, I think that we should try to be provocative and try to raise as much discussion as possible. In my opinion we should aim to lynch someone (hopefully scum) on D1. A no-lynch would essentially give the mafia a free kill, and not necessarily get us that much more information. On the other hand when I read your posts, I see almost nothing useful. You're trying to pressure CatsnHats, and trying to clarify some acronyms and such on D1. You're not posting any of your reads. And now you asked CatsnHats about his opinion on Gretorp when he already posted about it... you're giving surprisingly much attention to him to start the game with in my opinion. I'm pointing my FoS at you. I'll have my eyes on you Sheth. I'm not going to accuse you of being scum yet, but I suggest that you all watch Sheth's posts carefully. You'll have to try harder than that to convince me. | ||
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On January 05 2012 04:26 gonzaw wrote: + Show Spoiler + On January 05 2012 03:41 Cephiro wrote: I see what you mean. But regardless of what your reasons are, you need to be available enough so that we can get a read on you. Not being able to get any kind of read on you doesn't help your case at all. But I'll trust you... for now. You know, the problem I have with you for now is that you "trust" a lot of people and think a lot of people are town. Although finding out who's town is benefitial (since then it becomes a process of elimination to find scum), you should specially try to find scum directly. I see your point. I consider that you need to be able to trust some people to some extent in this game, and I am trying to find players which I can be fairly sure of to be townies. That does not mean I will analyze them any less though, I'm not taking anyone for granted neither am I setting anything in stone. I think that the first 24-hours of D1 in this game are quite hard to start pointing scum fingers at someone, but I assure you that whenever my scum sensor alerts, I'll let you all know. So I do get your point about finding scum directly, but I don't want to negate trying to find out whom are town. In my opinion, both is better than just the other. About Gretorp, I am certainly not liking his play so far. He has only posted twice, which of one was appareantly a joke, and the other being an explanation of the first message. The fact that he has posted but still hasn't said anything with content feels suspicious to me. What do you others think? Random Lynching is a retarded idea in my opinion, (since someone brought it up, I'll have my say in this as well.) because we still have more than a whole day on us to make reads, and since we don't have a mayor in this game, we can't use it in the way you were theorycrafting either. I still stand by what I said at start, I want us to be able to get enough reads on people to lynch a scum on day 1. Jitsu's post pretty much sums up my opinion. On January 04 2012 05:21 Jitsu wrote: Glean information from posts, sort it, filter it, analyze it. Posting and lynching based on evidence is a better theory than randomly trying to pull numbers out of a hat and hopefully snag mafia. I hope by Day 2, people will have enough reads and analysis where a random lynch wouldn't even have to be mentioned. I don't approve Xeris's play at all so far, all he has is two posts talking about the different ways of lynching, he hasn't provided any opinions about anyone, nor asked anyone else about their reads. Not very pro-town in my opinion. If he isn't going to step up soon, I am probably going to pressure vote for either him or Gretorp. My timezone is GMT +2, so it's around 15 minutes past midnight at the time of this post. I will probably stay up for at least 2 more hours. @Jitsu: I'm actually starting to be really suspicious of him at the moment. He had a very active start, even though his content was somewhat fluffy. I've changed my opinion about him since my earlier post, partly due to many people providing good reasoning about his play so far. I am actually wondering a bit as he hasn't said anything since yesterday's start, so I'm interested to hear if he has some actual opinions or reads to give when he comes back. | ||
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On January 05 2012 07:36 Gretorp wrote: cephiro, why are you trying to create outlandish narratives to make a decisive choice? You aren't' leaving much range for people to be townie. so interesting! :-) I am not entirely sure what you mean by trying to create outlandish narratives to make a decisive choice? If I understood that sentence right (I even checked an online wordbook just to be sure >.>), I still don't understand your point. So since you're accusing me of something, could you please be more exact about what you mean so that I can give you a proper response? I'm not either entirely sure on what you mean by me not leaving much range for people to be townies, but in my opinion less range is better than more range? I mean, we aren't here to try and let everyone off the hook for pretending to be townies. Anyone could be anything. And I still feel like you're not helping the case at all. Three one-two liner posts, not saying almost anything. If you are a townie you need to post more content or you aren't really helping us, the town. Instead we have to waste time on wondering if you're just a less active townie or maybe a sneaky scum. Do something useful and tell me what you think about Gonzaw? | ||
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On January 05 2012 07:14 Cephiro wrote: @Jitsu: I'm actually starting to be really suspicious of him at the moment. He had a very active start, even though his content was somewhat fluffy. I've changed my opinion about him since my earlier post, partly due to many people providing good reasoning about his play so far. I am actually wondering a bit as he hasn't said anything since yesterday's start, so I'm interested to hear if he has some actual opinions or reads to give when he comes back. I did not ignore your question. I will however give you an up-dated opinion once Cookie posts the rest of his reads, so please wait until that. (I am waiting for it myself quite eagerly) | ||
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On January 05 2012 09:16 Jitsu wrote: I will very much enjoy an updated opinion as well, after his new thing comes out. As for the moment, I will assume you are still suspicious of him as well. My bad for formatting the message badly, I just re-read it and understood how easily it could be misunderstood. So I'll be more exact the next time I respond to a question of yours! But yeah, I will post my updated opinion as soon as possible. But I want to hear his new thing before claiming anything, since in all honesty I'm not entirely sure on my read on him at the moment. | ||
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Cephiro
Finland1934 Posts
On January 05 2012 10:51 Probulous wrote: Cephiro You are one smart SOB, but not smart enough Mr Scum. I am going to go slowly because you have a lot of posts and you look like your contributing, but when you look closely, you ain’t saying nothing! Your first post + Show Spoiler + On January 04 2012 10:42 Cephiro wrote: I'll have to say CookieMaker provides a few good points to start with. Even though none of us knows the exact set up, I would have to argue that we as town have a much better starting point. Considering the case that the mafia would have a role blocker, it will most likely be less useful until later game when people are starting to have better reads on each other. If the town has both the medic and detective, it is quite likely that they will be able to do something useful. (Mafia role blocker would have 9 persons to choose from, since he/she would know the 3 mafia.) That leaves a 2/9 = around 22% chance of roleblocking on the first day, since I'm quite sure there will be no roleclaims this early. On the other hand, the medic has a very small chance of blocking the first kill on N1 (1/11 * 8/9 ~ 8% chance), but the detective has a chance of as much as 27% finding scum on N1 if he doesn't die. (Which would be about 24% in total, which is still higher than the chance of mafia roleblocking.) Note: You may notice I'm into maths a lot.... Also, it might even be that the mafia has a roleblocker but the town has no power roles, which renders the mafia roleblocker useless, making the situation even worse for them. Anyway, I think that we should try to be provocative and try to raise as much discussion as possible. In my opinion we should aim to lynch someone (hopefully scum) on D1. A no-lynch would essentially give the mafia a free kill, and not necessarily get us that much more information. Also... What a lovely way to start the game... but on the other hand, I doubt even a newbie scum player would slip that early, even though it could be done on purpose to make us think even a newbie wouldn't slip such, but in fact being scum anyway? Sheth rightly pointed out the lack of content in this post. It looks great from a distance but says nothing. I point this out and you eventually play down the stats. More damning from my point of view is your support for Cookie’s first post. His post was way worse than mine, but you call me out and my stupid pun and support him? You still haven’t explained how what I wrote was a supposed “scum-slip” but it was enough to paint me suspicious straight up. In addition, you like Cookie go on about blue roles. This is a scum tactic, there is no reason for town to discuss the possible setup until we have information from the night events. Anything else risks outing blues, but you keep on about it. As I already admit earlier, I did end up agreeing that the stats would not be useful in early game, which is why I didn't ramble on about them further. I do not agree with you on your claim that there would be NO reason for town to discuss the setup until information from night events. Why? Because even though we are all newbies, there may be people with more experience and others with less. This enables the more experienced players to ensure that if a total "idiot" townie would have got a power role, it wouldn't be misused. Regarding your joke, I took it up to fish for reactions and give you a poke. I wanted to see if you would try to explain yourself more in-depth, or just regard it as a joke and excuse yourself not needing to analyze it any further. Which was fine for me, since I knew that message had no real meaning, I got what I wanted. + Show Spoiler + On January 04 2012 10:11 CookieMaker wrote: Okay townies... we are presented with a dilemma. Disadvantage #1: There are few (if any) roles in this game, making identity confirmation scarce. However, that being said, the significant advantage we have over the mafia is their lack of killing power. They are only going to be able to snipe (at most, with any luck we got a doc) one person each night. This means the pressure is really going to be on them to avoid being lynched. I urge you, when voting time comes, do your homework, and proofread the homework of others carefully. Rash vote swings by emotional players only help the scum hide on their bandwagons. I am making an assumption here, but the other likely advantage we possess is the experience of a few key players. I'd be absolutely shocked if all three mafiasifarians were players who had (lots of) prior experience playing, but I'd also be surprised if they were three complete newbies. My impression is that one mafia will be a strong player and will deftly manipulate and lead the other two. So this is the first day. I elect #thefirstpersontocomeupwithaplan for mayor Why should I not support this post? In my opinion it provides a few basic, yet good points for people to remember. I do agree the latter part is just fluffy theorycrafting about someone leading the mafia, that doesn't really matter. To compare, this is your first post: + Show Spoiler + Probalous wrote on January 04 2012 10:12 I expect great things from those that have played before. It seems fair to me that they should be expected to contribute. Of course, everyone should be actively contributing, but I will be really disapointed if the guys who have played don't put in the effort. You know the cost and will be held accountable. With this in mind can the following people let me know how many (if any) games they have played? Jitsu Xeris Gretorp Gonzaw This is my first game and I intend to win. Come on town let the streets flow with red red blood! I bolded the single only thing in your post that wasn't just fluff talking. There's not really a big difference if the guys have played 0 games or up to 1-2. But fine, I'm not blaming you for wanting to know, since it may be part of your strategy on making reads. On January 05 2012 10:51 Probulous wrote: Then comes a nice filler post + Show Spoiler + On January 04 2012 10:54 Cephiro wrote:+ Show Spoiler + On January 04 2012 10:49 AnxiousHippo wrote: I'm pretty sure scum are sometimes referred to as Reds, I guess he was trying to make a pun? I don't think it was a slip. Myeah, You're probably right, since as I said, I wouldn't expect even a newbie mafia slip this early. Gotta be careful about puns though, they could be misunderstood. Even though it actually could be good scumbaiting, fishing for the player's reactions for better reads? Well, in any case we'll have to get some discussion going on. Or random accusations to get people to talk. (Or maybe I'm just too eager regardless of the fact I know most people in Europe won't be awake at a time like this.) I admit, this post doesn't have much content. If you didn't notice, you totally ignored my question (bolded) here. May I know for what reason? You are claiming me for having contentless posts at start, yet you should just see some of yours again. + Show Spoiler + On January 04 2012 10:21 Probulous wrote: There is no mayor and that is big assumption given this is a specifically newbie game with everyone on less than 3 games. To me, it is more reasonable that nobody is an assumed strong player and we will find out who are, as we go along. Of course previous experience is useful for setting activity expectations but deciding on scum targets based on possible non-random allocation is a big reach. I don't like it. Anyone that reads the rules knows there is no mayor. + The rest of the post is just your opinions about assumptions that are totally useless. + Show Spoiler + On January 04 2012 11:05 Probulous wrote: Lovely maths, does it say anything For one Mafia cannot have a roleblocker with no town power roles. The only setup with a roleblocker is one where we have both a medic and DT. Secondly, the maths doesn't help us actually do anything, unless there is something I am missing. Thirdly a no-lynch is better than a miss-lynch. I will be more happy to not lynch someone than lynch someone I think is town. Yes it was a bad pun, I am not sure how it could be a scum tell. So much for trying to be entertaining You join in the so-called useless power role discussion, yet you are providing false information about the setups yourself. That could easily be trying mafia to mislead, but in all honesty, I think you just did a newbie mistake which could happen to anyone. My point being: Try not to be too eager to call others on mistakes you have done yourself. + Show Spoiler + On January 04 2012 11:38 Probulous wrote: I agree with this. It is also why we need everyone to post. We can't catch scum if they say nothing. Sheth, you finished dinner yet? Gretorp, Cats are you guys around? Blurry and Cephiro, thanks for staying up so late. Were you talking about fillers...? On January 05 2012 10:51 Probulous wrote: Your response to my question about what purpose the stats offer is + Show Spoiler + On January 04 2012 11:21 Cephiro wrote: Well, it was mainly some statistics to prove how the situation is better for town in case the mafia has a role blocker and we have power roles. Also, there is a set up which contains both power roles (DT+Medic for town), and the mafia roleblocker. You can check the opening post for the 4 possible setups. I'm not entirely convinced on a no-lynch, but I do agree that lynching a townie on D1 is a bad start. I think it comes down to how much information we'll have, if there are any seemingly scumreads I personally think we gain more as town if we try to lynch the scum, since if we hit, we are at a very good advantage. And even if we don't, it will raise much more discussion and easier reads depending on who has been voting for who and so on. In other words, nothing. The rest is fairly decent. Again I pressure you on what purpose the stats offer and you finally agree that it means nothing. Nothing but fairly decent? I don't get you... And after this, as you pressure me on the usefulness of the stats, I finally realize that they aren't that useful earlygame, so after this I stop theorycrafting until later on. + Show Spoiler + On January 04 2012 11:44 Cephiro wrote: Heh, such happens. But yeah, the statistics won't be very useful yet, but they are good to know anyway. (I study statistics at uni, and I love to try and apply them into everything.) I am quite sure it will become useful sooner or later, especially if we get the chance of backtracking roles. What I want to do today is covered in my post you already quoted. I would like us to be able to raise enough discussion and get a decent shot at who could be scum, since 2 mafia versus 8-9 townies (depending on if one dies N1 or not) would be an incredibly good situation for us. CookieMaker has a good point though, there is a 50% chance that there is a DT in the game, and buying him time to find the scum isn't a bad idea either. But we can't be certain if there is one or not, which why I'm still slightly favour for trying to lynch scum today, at least for now. We have quite a bit of time on us though, so if it seems like we can't get good reads on anyone and it's just a huge mess, we can still go for the no-lynch. Also, no problem for staying up late, I'm very bad at sleeping early and I'm so excited to play my first game of Forum Mafia! I will be going to sleep in 20 minutes or so though. On January 05 2012 10:51 Probulous wrote: But then you go again about the setup. If the stats of the setup mean nothing, than the setup itself means nothing. We cannot get any info from discussing it until we have night actions. These posts are long but you haven’t actually said anything. You look like your contributing but you aren’t. Going on about the setup? Not really, I only mention the possibility of buying a possible DT more time, not going on about setups further than that. I am not contributing anything? I bold my statement which is along the lines of my original post. On January 05 2012 10:51 Probulous wrote: Your last post of the night was + Show Spoiler + On January 04 2012 12:21 Cephiro wrote: Yeah, it's my first forum game ever. Haven't played this anywhere else either. I've read through quite a bunch of advanced games on different forums though, and I generally consider myself good at mindgames or understanding what people think / why they do something etc. So I'm really excited to see if it's correlates to success in here. Yeah, you heard right, watch out mafia! I am going to sleep now though. I will re-read the thread (especially the new posts) a few times once I wake up and will try to join in as much as I can. If you have a hard time of trying to find out who is scum, then please do the town a favor and at least try to find some most-likely-town reads, since even that will help us narrow down the possible lynch. I do agree that we could pressure vote lurkers/inactives later on in D1, hopefully forcing them to defend themselves and give us better reads. Is there anything in there that helps town to catch scum? The only thing you say is that if you can’t catch scum, try and prove people are town, but of course you don’t do anything like that do you? Wishy-washy trash. How on earth can you claim this post is just wishy-washy trash? The first part may be, but it's because I answered Gonzaw's question about how I seem to know about the game. Why should I have left it unanswered? Nope, there is no reason why I should've skipped that. So don't blame it as wishy-washy trash. Skipping genuine questions would just wake up suspicisions, and why would I want that as a townie? Also, of course I wouldn't do anything like that, what is that bullshit? I was the first person to share all my reads. You certainly weren't. | ||
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Cephiro
Finland1934 Posts
On January 05 2012 10:51 Probulous wrote: Now my personal favourite, your analysis. I will you credit for being the first person to post one but god damn you could not have done a worse job. I am going to go through each person and see how wrong you can be. + Show Spoiler + On January 05 2012 00:16 Cephiro wrote: Time for a D1 analysis! Obviously I'll leave myself out, but if someone wants to know more about my opinions / ask why I'm in favor of something, please go ahead, discussion is what we need at the moment. Also, my apologies if I'm wrong with someone's gender, I'll make a mean generalization and expect everyone to be a male until noted otherwise. Player List: 1.CookieMaker For now I'm leaning slightly towards town on him, even though he is quite in-favour of the no-lynch possibility. But I think that may be due to the fact that it's his first game, and he may not have read through/followed many mafia games before. So I'm thinking he's rather be safe than sorry, but hopefully he'll realize the amount of information even a possible mislynch will give us, not even mentioning the huge lead we can get if we nail a mafia on D1. His posts could have slightly more actual content, but he's trying so for now he's okay to me. On January 05 2012 10:51 Probulous wrote: You lean town because ” But I think that may be due to the fact that it's his first game” Earth to Cephiro, it is everyone’s first (second or third) game. That is no excuse. Essentially you are saying that you disagree with everything he says but think he is town because this is his first game? BAD Cephiro! You do realize that different persons react differently under pressure? If we put 10 persons in a situation none of them has ever been in, I can assure you that they will not react the same way. And my thinking here is that CM would be the type of person that would react in such a way. I can admit that's quite a long shot, but it's my read. I at no point said I disagree with everything he said, so you are putting words into my mouth here. Bad Probulous! + Show Spoiler + 2.Liquid`Sheth Hasn't posted anything useful aside from welcoming people and pressuring CatsnHats. Sure, pressuring at this point has to be done, but deciding to pick on one person for no real reason at this point and providing no other content? Hopefully he means well and just tries to make sure CatsnHats plays pro-town regardless of being new, I mean, Sheth does have 2 previous games of TL mafia as a base of experience. But for now, I am reading something between neutral or slightly scum. I dare you to prove me your innocence, so I'll be waiting for your morning post. On January 05 2012 10:51 Probulous wrote: At this point he had done more than Cookie. He had attempted to out scum by pressuring Cats. A point you recognize. I want you to read this again and again an try tell me why a town would say this ” Sure, pressuring at this point has to be done, but deciding to pick on one person for no real reason at this point and providing no other content?” Sheth had a reason, he made it clear. Cats was being non-commital. Even if he had not reason, pressure outs people. It is always good at this stage of the game. For this you paint him less town than Cookie AND slightly scummy? BAD Cephiro! Maybe he had done more in your opinion. My opinion was that the only useful thing he had done (at that point), was that he had only pressured the new player, and then letting him off the hook just like that. The way he did it semt scummy to me, got a problem with that? I am just telling my genuine reads, don't like them, convince me otherwise. I was the first one to show everyone all my cards at that point, because I wanted to raise discussion. On the other hand, all you did is sat back and waited for everyone to talk, and came in with a huge-ass post later yourself. You left the scene since you were satisfied of most people considering you pro-town, and you slipped under pretty much everyone's radar, not many people were wondering why you weren't taking part in discussion. And when you came with your huge scumpost, all you did was provide very short explanation why you think some people are town, then stating "These are just neutral to me, that's it", and then moving all the attention into your huge scumpost. Effectively focusing everyone on your scumpost, and turning the attention away from yourself, to ensure people don't change their townread about you, but concentrate on believing on your accusations. + Show Spoiler + 3.AnxiousHippo Doesn't seem to have any idea of what he should be doing, but I guess it's understandable since it's only his second game. I am hoping to hear more from you, since you haven't posted enough content to make any kind of read on you. Neutral. On January 05 2012 10:51 Probulous wrote:¨ I’m fine with this Nothing to comment here. + Show Spoiler + 5.Tunkeg Good forewarn on not being able to answer at the start of the game. Appareantly was on the winning side in his first game. He seems like an aggressive type of person, wanting to start the accusations and pressure to get some discussion going on. Thinks that D1 lynch is a must, but backs it up with some very good points. Took the first vote playing it relatively safely, voting for a lurker who hasn't posted yet. Clearly wants something to happen, but I am for now unsure if his method will be very successful. Neutral for now, but if you keep the activity up I should be able to get either a slight-town or slight-scum read on you soon. On January 05 2012 10:51 Probulous wrote: Cephiro, Cephiro, I know you wanted to speak but damn, Tunkeg has had the best posting yet. Much better than yours. You even say ” Thinks that D1 lynch is a must, but backs it up with some very good points.” Voting for a lurker is pressuring them to participate. Sure it may have been a safe move, but you can’t say shit since you haven’t even voted yet. You cast doubt on how successful his pressuring will be but don’t offer anything else. In essence you are undermining his methods which you even admit that “He seems like an aggressive type of person, wanting to start the accusations and pressure to get some discussion going on” Please try and explain why a townie would try and discredit the way someone is trying to out scum without offering an alternative? Any effort is good effort and all your “analysis” does is undermine Tunkeg. You have no proof for why he might be scummy other than his aggressiveness but even that you say is because he wants to start discussion. You admit you have nothing on him, so why cast doubt on his methods? BAD Cephiro! Safe move yes, but why should I not be allowed to say that aloud? You're not any better at this point, having posted far less content than me, waiting for your town-saving newspost. So you can't go aggressive on me for not voting at this point either, unless you admit your play was even worse. I am here also giving my genuine reads, I am not trying to undermine him in any way, I just posted my feeling about his methods. Should I have said bullshit such as "I think what he does is awesome", if I didn't really think so? I gave him a neutral read back then. + Show Spoiler + 6.Jitsu Seems to want to actively participate, and most of his posts so far are convincing people to lynch on D1. Hasn't posted any actual content other than that though, so I will still stand on a neutral read. I am hoping to hear more content from you soon, I need to get more reads. On January 05 2012 10:51 Probulous wrote: Good lordy, he was the first person to pressure Cookie about the stupidity of advocating a no-lynch. That is a damn site more than you have done and far and beyond Cookie, but no Cookie is slightly town but Jitsu is null? BAD Cephiro! He had posted against the no-lynch in general, and called out on Hippo and Cookie in _ONE_ post by this point, which wasn't enough for me to get a solid read on him. If I am unsure, why should I not admit it? I also wanted to make him post more, so I was trying to provoke him with my claim of "Hasn't posted any actual content other than that". Which he then replied he has his reasons for. + Show Spoiler + 7.Xeris All I can say is, no content, not a good sign. Neutral. 8.Gretorp Same as above, neutral. On January 05 2012 10:51 Probulous wrote: Fine with these. Nothing to see here. + Show Spoiler + 9.Gonzaw Answering people's questions, trying to explain some of the basic stuff that should be understood, looks good to me. I like the way he pushed to know more about how I seem to know about the game, so he seems like he isn't taking anything for granted. Also suggesting pressure voting to get things going. I have a slight town-read here. On January 05 2012 10:51 Probulous wrote: This is where you sunk your ship. I agree that Gonz is town but put these two quotes together You give the first a slight scum/neutral read and the second a town read. BAD Cephiro! Gonz and Tunkeg had very different playstyle in my opinion. Here you are putting words into my mouth again, which I am finding quote offending at this point, trying to make look worse than what I am. The first was a statement considering taking the first vote, and Tunkeg didn't encourage others to pressure vote at this point even though he did so himself, unlike Gonz who also suggested others to do that. There is a difference between doing something yourself and encouraging others to do it as well. The difference in their playstyle and between keeping the pressure voting to himself/encouraging it to everyone was the main reason I ended up reading Tunkeg as neutral and Gonz as town at this point. + Show Spoiler + 10.Blurry Seems to be in favour of no-lynching, wanting to stay on the safe side. Hasn't talked about anything but different possibilities if a mafia roleblocker exists. Not useful. (Okay, I'll have to admit that my statistics post at start wasn't necessarily very useful either, but I've been at least trying to post other content as well.) Neutral for now, but if you won't be posting more, I would lean on slightly scum. 11.Probulous Being very active at the start, and the play seems really town-favouring. Constantly asking for opinions and explaining his reasoning. I like his opinion on lynching, definitely wanting to lynch mafia but still keeping in mind the possibility of being careful incase we don't get any reads on D1. Hopefully we will have some scum reads that we can go for so no-lynch won't be necessary. Pressuring the people that should be on according to timezone but haven't posted. I would have to say you are my strongest town-read so far, I want to hear more of your opinions when you're back. On January 05 2012 10:51 Probulous wrote: Fine with these (obviously). Nothing to comment here. + Show Spoiler + 12.CatsnHats Being a new player, it's understandable that he's a bit confused, but you really need to learn that you CAN'T TRUST anyone but yourself. Whatever you think about the situation or someone's reads, say it, don't just agree or disagree randomly. I'm kind of worried of the chance that you are a townie whom the mafia would be able to talk around easily, but I hope you'll prove me wrong. (about the convincing part.) Or you could be mafia that is pretending to be a super-newbie town on his first game... who knows. But you're neutral so far. Start posting your opinions! On January 05 2012 10:51 Probulous wrote: This says nothing about Cats at all. You say one thing then produce a nice WIFOM to discredit what you just said. You actually say anything about him at all. Whatever man, you are heading for a lynch ## Vote Cephiro I'll admit that I did not analyse CatsnHats in the same way as others, I ended up concentrating too much telling him what he should do in my opinion. This was partly affected by the fact that I still thought he was too wishy-washy even after Sheth's early pressure, and I wanted to make sure that for example Sheth wouldn't get a grip on him, since I had Sheth as slightly scum at this point. | ||
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Finland1934 Posts
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Probulous wrote: Thanks for nailing the coffin. In the same post, the very same post, you quote Jitsu as explaining your thinking clearly and then says he is suspicious because his content is fluffy? Surely, a normal logical response is just to ask Jitsu to provide more thinking, because what he has provided has been useful. Instead you cast doubt on him. Either you think he is suspicious and act on it, or you don't and act on it. Here you do neither, you give and take in the same post. The irony is that you berate Cats for not taking a stand but you do exactly the same thing. Here you totally disregard my post earlier about how I answered Jitsu's question, not blaming him. Did you do that on purpose? Liquid`Sheth wrote: Hes being so completely passive and neutral. Are you kidding me? Look at your own posts. Liquid`Sheth wrote: He is just following "people providing good reasoning". I am certainly not following anyone in this game, but if someone notices a very valid point that I don't, which I agree with, why shouldn't I change my opinion? It would be idiotic to play this game by your first-post-reads about everyone. This game is constantly changing, and you need to understand that. Also, you are accusing ME of following, when what you did is dropped the case against me altogether, and jumped on the bandwagon right after Probulous has posted his analysis. Are you sure you aren't talking about yourself? Probulous wrote: Think about it carefully, I have pushed my case based on his posts. If I am wrong, what does that tell you? Nothing! I have exactly the same information as anyone else. You don't like my analysis, show me why, but Cephiro's impending lynch says bugger all about my alignment. Trying to make yourself look innocent after going full speed with the Cephiro-train? That is such an outright lie. You are being so eager on lynching me and don't seem to be considering anything else to the slightest, and you say that would provide no information if I flipped town? For me, that would certainly look like a mafia player wanting to get an active town player out asap. Liquid`Sheth wrote: And as for your analysis, well I'm showing here why your analysis that his flip won't tell us anything. In honesty if he flips town, it makes you look a lot more like mafia. And if he flips Mafia it makes you look a lot more like town. For those reasons below. If hes town I'm under the same thing and maybe were mafia buddies starting a train on a poor little townie. Is it just me or are you contradicting yourself when talking about my possible flip? You're saying it wouldn't tell us anything and then you are saying it will cause the other side to look like mafia.... Just... what? Probulous wrote: I know this isn't scum-hunting but I have done a lot already so forgive me for this diversion. In short, no. If my analysis is good, and Cephiro turns out to be town, that means that Cephiro was a very scummy town. Right? It does not mean that I am mafia. I could be, but I could also be a town pushing who I think is mafia. How do you tell the difference? By the quality of the analysis. The same is true if he flips mafia, I agree it is unlikely that mafia would bus day 1. However, they could, the point being speculating about it gives us nothing. In my land, townie cred only exists from the scum you find. If I put together a thorough analysis on someone and they flip town, go back and read my analysis. Was I pushing something too far, was I focusing on some small irrelevant detail? That gives you clues to my alignment, not whether he flips green or red. IF your analysis is good. What if you're making a huge mistake? You are claiming that if I flip town, I was a very scummy town, only based on your fine analysis. You're just keeping trying to convince people about how you are not mafia or how they can't tell if you're mafia or not if I flip town. Goddamnit, stand up for yourself and admit you are certainly not looking too good when I would flip green in a lynch. "In your land" Well, this isn't your land, and neither is your analysis the only book of law we go by with. I'm still concerned by the fact that you aren't sharing any of your reads except the ones you claim to be scum. Liquid`Sheth wrote: Ok, because we have two good reads on scum CatsNHats and Cephiro, I'd like to talk about something else until they come back. There is a chance there is a detective. There is a chance there is a medic. If you are the detective, you should NOT choose the person who you think will die during the night. You should pick someone who you'd like to know about and isn't likely to be killed soon, and who would really help town to know about. If you are the medic, you should choose the few people who you think mafia might want dead on this night and WIFOM in between them. However this night you have an advantage, and you might for future nights as well. Mafia isn't sure you exist. The best % they have is that if they have a roleblocker, there's a 50% chance you exist. Because of this, I'd recommend if you exist simply use your ability on who you think is the most townie. Also, if you've found one mafia you should come out in the open and tell us about it. There are other situations where either medic or detective should come out, such as if you know 3 confirmed town and were nearing LYLO. Use your best judgement on those situations. Does everyone agree that if you find a mafia the detective should come out with them? At the start you discredit my statistics post, but a bit later on your start talking about power roles yourself? If you find a mafia you should come out in the open and tell it? Sheesh, could you be any more obvious mafia trying to fish out the players with power roles? CatsnHats wrote: Yeah I know I look scummy. People are holding my first two newb posts against me and it's clouding their judgement on the rest of my play. At this point in the game Cephiro is definitely more scummy than Gretorp, especially in light of Gretorp promising a long post and his being at work all day. If he follows through it would alleviate a lot of my concerns with him Jumping on a bandwagon to save yourself scum? Did Gretorp ever give you that long post? CatsnHats wrote: I just getting all the possibilities out there, and I said that you all being mafia was low probability, so if anything that would be taking suspicion from you. As I have said before from the beginning, my third (albeit a distant one relative to the others) at the moment is Xeris due to his no-lynch posts, lurking, and non-responses to player questions. He has left very little material to go on, but that is my third for now. For me it's Cephiro>CM>Xeris. I could see Xeris dropping off this list though when he, Gretorp, AH, Blurry, and others post again. Moar bandwagon, you are just blindly convinced by everything Probulous said trying to hide and save your own scummy ass. Xeris wrote: Meh. I'm not convinced of anything. I'll follow along with a lynch if people are convinced and just going to go for it- but I stand by my belief of not killing on the first day. Seriously, thinking people are scummy because of stupid analysis skills and bad/inconsistent posts is really silly. Still no posts after this, wants a no-lynch (Free kills for mafia anyone?), but at least he isn't jumping on bandwagons blindly unlike some others. Jitsu wrote: Also, there is a point where you are jumping back and forth between a miss-lynch and no-lynch policy I have been true to my first post statement the whole game, we NEED to lynch someone on day 1. "I'm not entirely convinced on a no-lynch, but I do agree that lynching a townie on D1 is a bad start. I think it comes down to how much information we'll have, if there are any seemingly scumreads I personally think we gain more as town if we try to lynch the scum, since if we hit, we are at a very good advantage." If you mean that, it was in response to CookieMaker's posts, since he was actively pushing for no-lynch at start. That I am not convinced on a no-lynch equals to I am not in favour of it. Liquid`Sheth wrote: I guess I should have brought all of this up earlier, but I thought Prob's post was good enough to get us lynching him. Again, not continuing your pressure, but letting someone do the dirty work for you. What on earth are you doing Sheth, at first you tell everyone that they should not trust you or anyone else, but think for themselves, and now you're bandwagoning hardcore. Probulous wrote: AS you point out Ceph pops into the thread and then disapears, we have less than 2 hrs to lynch, why do this? Considering your wall-of-text, you should know that it's not exactly a fast thing to compose a defense against all your accusations, especially if I want it to be in a readable format. What did you do yourself during the first 24 hours? Stick around for the start, come back after everyone else has provided enough content so you can make your analysis. Probulous wrote: Point to something useful in that post. You are still trying to discredit the whole post because I answered gonz's question about my experience in Mafia, trying to claim it's just fluff. Answering other players' questions is not fluff. If you didn't notice, "What I want to do today is covered in my post you already quoted." Which you seem to totally ignore. Reading through last page now and answering any possible posts that have come up in the meanwhile. | ||
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If there are some specific points anyone of you want me to answer, please point them out now. ##Vote A Killer Cuppa Tea | ||
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On January 06 2012 08:23 Probulous wrote: Two questions Ceph Would you vote for AKCT? From that post you think Sheth, Cats and myself are scum? Is that right? I don't want to put words in your mouth again so please label the three scum for me. Thanks for coming out guns blazing. Voted for AKCT. We need to get a lynch today. This will be a short post since I don't think I will have time for a full analysis, but at the moment the top-3 scumreads (in no particular order) for me are: Liquid`Sheth, CatsnHats, Gretorp. I am fairly sure that one of the lurkers is scum, even though I could be wrong. Gretorp has promised analysis twice, but nothing so far. Even though I do not like Xeris's overly safe play, I find Gretorp more scum than him at the moment. I was thinking about building a bigger case against you, since you seemed to go for me so aggressively, but even if I would like to see more of your reads on others, I think you have a reason to keep them to yourself for now, and you're just trying to pressure the hell out of who you think are scum. So I'm actually leaning town on you. | ||
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On January 06 2012 08:38 AnxiousHippo wrote: Votecount? If I am not mistaken: A Killer Cuppa Tea (9): Gonzaw, Tunkeg, Blurry, Probulous, Cephiro, CatsnHats, Liquid`Sheth, Jitsu, AnxiousHippo Should be relatively safe if everyone sticks to their votes, since the current vote would need 3 members to drop off to force a no-lynch (if none of the inactives post their votes.) And I think it would be quite a dumb move from mafia to pull all three members to force a no-lynch on the first day, so I doubt that is going to happen. | ||
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All of the following are by CatsnHats: If Cephiro won't analyze himself, I will. You've advocated lynching from the beginning and have added a lot of original content in the way of statistics and your recent D1 analysis. And even though you admitted earlier that you consider yourself good at mindgames, I still have a town read on you for now. RE: CookieMaker Even with recent read on Ceph, which I agree with. After Probu's analysis: Yeah I know I look scummy. People are holding my first two newb posts against me and it's clouding their judgement on the rest of my play. At this point in the game Cephiro is definitely more scummy than Gretorp, especially in light of Gretorp promising a long post and his being at work all day. If he follows through it would alleviate a lot of my concerns with him. I just getting all the possibilities out there, and I said that you all being mafia was low probability, so if anything that would be taking suspicion from you. As I have said before from the beginning, my third (albeit a distant one relative to the others) at the moment is Xeris due to his no-lynch posts, lurking, and non-responses to player questions. He has left very little material to go on, but that is my third for now. For me it's Cephiro>CM>Xeris. I could see Xeris dropping off this list though when he, Gretorp, AH, Blurry, and others post again. Two first seem like bandwagoning to anyone? Not to mention Xeris, even though he at any point didn't really get votes on him. Why aren't you suddenly totally okay with Gretorp? Because Probu was neutral on him? And to Gretorp: seriously where is your promised long analysis post/contribution? Don't think I've haven't forgotten. We're going to need everyone's contributions if we're going to rid the town of scum, so start POSTING. How convinient that you posted that, RIGHT AFTER I had pointed that out. (First post of this page) Take those 3 away, and what do you have? Gretorp, Xeris, and Cookie. Wow, I certainly dropped off your scumlist quickly after people started to agree on lynching Cookie/Tea. Or was I simply that convincing also? It seems to me that you are just changing your mind A LOT, but all your reasoning seems to be based on other players analysis. | ||
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On January 06 2012 08:58 Probulous wrote: I agree that Xeris, and Gretorp are looking bad, but that is mainly due to inactivity. At this rate they will be mod-killed for lack of a vote. You want more reads from me, fine, I will take a closer look at Sheth. Jitsu and Tunk are definitely town and I think Hippo is an unsure newbie town. Gonz is looking more green as time goes on. That leaves Blurry, Xeris, Gretorp and Sheth. The first three have posted virtually nothing, so Sheth it is. Do the others a favour and post your case on me. No-one else seems willing to do it. I know I am town but the others seem to have accepted it without question. Thank you, I appriciate that you're ready to share more of your reads. I re-read the rules and couldn't find a mention if we are allowed to post in the night phase. If we are, I will post my case then, otherwise I will post it as D2 starts. Simply because I don't have enough time (50 minutes), to comply a convincing analysis on you at the moment, even with all the information I already have. I am going to sleep right after the lynch is made, which is 3 AM my time. My sleeping rhythm is fucked up enough as is. Mind you, the original case was supposed to be much more aggressive and scum-blaming (before I had time to re-read and think about it more.), but I am going to base the analysis on my current read on you. (Because going back into a previous mindstate would be weird.) | ||
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On January 06 2012 10:02 CatsnHats wrote: @Ceph Jumping on the CatsnHats bandwagon I see. It seems like you trying to get people to spare you on D2 by shifting attention to me. You quoted me as saying "Even with recent read on Ceph, which I agree with." as evidence that I flip-flopped when I later included him on my scum reads. But you didn't quote the whole post. I said: I've never flipped on CM, you just didn't include this to make your case. It seems alot of people have a habit of doing that. And no, you didn't fall off of my list, if you actually read Jitsu's post you aren't mentioned on it, so I didn't include you. Don't worry you're still on it. You're actually at the top of it for D2. That's not OMGUS, it's just that you are top two with CM/Tea and once he's gone you're logically next on the list. My flip from Gretorp to you was to kill the greater of two evils a the moment, since Gretorp's inactivity had left him as a harder read when compared to you. And then I switched my vote from you to Tea because it seemed we were going to be deadlocked, and killing #2 on my list and letting #1 go is much better than letting both #1 and #2 go. I didn't quote the whole post, because it wasn't necessary. My point was that YOU AGREED with CookieMaker's pro-town read on me at that point. Not anything about flipping on CM, so don't make stuff up. What makes me a greater evil than Gretorp to you? You still haven't posted any original thoughts of yours against anyone you've accused of being scum. Lurking around at the beginning, writing a paragraph of text that amounts to nothing, and then OMGUS-ing the person that prods you... not a good look Gretorp. Pretty scummy if you ask me. You said this after Gretorp answered to Tunkeg's accusations. = Nothing original. You want accusations, here are my slight scum reads. RE: Xeris Inactive early and his only posted content centers on not lynching after much discussion has already taken place amongst the town about why that is a bad idea. That would seem to be a play for a mafia freekill on N1. RE: CookieMaker Even with recent read on Ceph, which I agree with. I cannot let you off the hook yet for shady opening play. The poem, Odin/Thor references, fluff posts, "jabbing and dodging" who you accused of jabbing and dodging, etc. All of this leans towards scum I think. RE: Gretorp He is the scummiest player so far. From the joke in post one to the back down in post two to this new third post, every response is just too cute and offers nothing in the way of analysis or contribution. Two to three sentence posts of no substance seem very suspicious. How original, you are repeating the opinions of others on your three scum reads. @Jitsu You have so much wrong about me I don't know where to start. I waited around 2 hours and 30 posts before I first commented. How is that lurking, especially for it being my first game? Others waited much longer and did not draw your attention. I was the second person to talk about Gretorp, and I was the first to call him out on his response to Tunkeg's prod. And how could I have changed my top 3 scum reads when that was the first time I posted them? Gretorp stayed on the list, Xeris advocated no-lynch, and CM had been very shady (as was explained in the post and echoed by others later). I kept pressing and pressing Gretorp because I stuck to my stance and he hadn't answered yet, but that is explained because he works all day for NASL. I await his response. I appreciate your concern, and like your aggression for me to explain myself. I have a town read for you, and I hope this clarifies things You were not the first to call him out on his response to Tunkeg. I WAS Nice try. You are trying to claim you were the first one to pressure a lurker's response, yet you weren't. And we're talking about a LURKER. What a risky move. Are you sure you didn't mean to type "echoed by me" later? When you were providing your first reads about CM, you were only copying the facts others had already said. Gretorp is explained because he works in NASL? Please. We others have lives too, and don't necessarily work any less. I hope "this clarifies things", means your whole post, and not "I have a town read for you". On January 05 2012 12:27 Jitsu wrote: Also, just so I have it here. I am willing to bet that if Cats dies and flips red, Cookie will too. Your response was this: Also why would Cookie flip red too? He's been on my scum list from the beginning and he has now voted for me. Wait...what do we have here. You say that you have him as scum from beginning, and that he is playing against you. BANG. You are trying to convince others that you are not in the same team with Cookie. What are you going to do now that he flipped green? Certainly isn't looking good for you. Yeah I know I look scummy. People are holding my first two newb posts against me and it's clouding their judgement on the rest of my play. At this point in the game Cephiro is definitely more scummy than Gretorp, especially in light of Gretorp promising a long post and his being at work all day + That being said, despite your circular theoretical talk, at this point I'm confident in your analysis of Cephiro and think he is more of a threat than Gretorp. So unvote Gretorp vote Cephiro You ACKNOWLEDGE that you look scummy, and the first thing you do is jump on my bandwagon, based on someone elses analysis. According to you, I am definitely more scummy than Gretorp, because Probu said so. And Gretorp promised to post after his hard working day. EBWOP: I know this makes me look even more bandwaggony to you Jitsu. But I can't worry about your thoughts about me. I just need to help find scum and let my play speak for itself. Your play certainly speaks for itself. You haven't helped to find ANY scum so far. Because riding on bandwagons without making a case against someone yourself is so much easier? For the record, I guess it is possible that Jitsu, Sheth, and Prob are the three mafia trying to pressure me from the beginning into voting for a target of their choice. I find it highly unlikely, however, that all three of you would be so vocal and hold such a majority of the spotlight, as this would certainly be a risky play. So I feel good about the vote switch. I just wanted to get this thought out there. + I just getting all the possibilities out there, and I said that you all being mafia was low probability, so if anything that would be taking suspicion from you. As I have said before from the beginning, my third (albeit a distant one relative to the others) at the moment is Xeris due to his no-lynch posts, lurking, and non-responses to player questions. He has left very little material to go on, but that is my third for now. For me it's Cephiro>CM>Xeris. I could see Xeris dropping off this list though when he, Gretorp, AH, Blurry, and others post again. So basically, you are theorycrafting how someone else than me could be scum, but it is unlikely, so I don't really think you are. Talk about fluff! Oh wait, you did something new, you're jumping on Xeris! Except his inactiveness has been pointed out already. Now let's see at your scumreads at this point. "For me it's Cephiro>CM>Xeris" Wow, 2 bandwagons and 1 lurker. So original.@Cephiro I was about to ask you to change your vote to Tea, but you did it before I could finish. Tea/CM was on my scum list the whole time (check my filter), so I'm fine with lynching him instead of a no-lynch D1. Yep, bandwagoning since the start indeed. And at no point did you provide own analysis. Because when others do it, it's enough, right? I think I've got my strongest scumread right against the wall now. Let's see how you'll convince your way out of this one. I'll leave this here and go sleep now. I'll be interested in seeing your response when I am back. And if you're trying to blame me for jumping on the bandwagon, try. I am providing my own analysis and reasoning as to why you are scum, unlike what you ever did. You got away due to the heavy case on me, but where are you going to go now? You won't be able to hide on a bandwagon until you try and defend yourself, I'll be making sure of that. | ||
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Just to clarify: This is not meant to be wishy-washy or filler, but to give you guys the legit reason why I haven't (and won't be able to post) until later. Wish me luck! (For the competition )And when I'm back... scums beware. Even if I would have to defend myself against a thousand accusations before nailing you against the wall, I will. | ||
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In the meanwhile, I am not going to vote for anyone else than Cats or Sheth today. Sheth lynch > Cats lynch > No lynch IMO. (Also, don't even think I am bandwagoning on Sheth, I would probably have posted my case even before Probulous if I hadn't been busy IRL.) First I will simply browse through the thread and reply to anything I feel necessary, and then I will re-read everyone's filters and post my analysis. | ||
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##Vote: Liquid`Sheth | ||
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On January 06 2012 11:32 CatsnHats wrote: Ok guys. I don't really want to do this, but I'm going to since it really is the best for the town. I think all of you should vote to lynch me on D2. I've come to realize that I am a terrible player of this game, especially as a townie (with no role I might add!). I should have found the newbie forum or got a better idea of this game before i signed up to play it. My first few posts I made before I realized the psychological and analytical implications of this game handicapped me and I've been playing the defensive ever since. After the bad start I put myself in, my goal was to make it past D1, which I did, so I'm fine with getting lynched if it's agreeable amongst everyone (I'm sure the scum will agree). All I have really done is distract you all from the real the scum with my terrible play, and that's not fair to the town. I also admit, I haven't added much in the way of original analysis because I was afraid that it would put me in even more hot water. The obviously wasn't the right play. Maybe you all can get D2 sped up if the mods allow it so anymore scumhunting time isn't wasted. This probably isn't the correct time to do it since it's N1, but for the record. ##Vote: CatsnHats For the record: in light of CM/Tea turning up green, I think it takes some heat of you Ceph. You (and the rest of the town) should spend your time looking into Xeris and Gretorp (because of questionable/contradictory posting when not lurking) and pressuring AnxiousHippo, a player who has gone unnoticed to others because of all of the accusations going around. He's made filler posts, keeps making excuses for not reading through everything, and throws out a placeholder vote for Xeris and a very bandwagon vote for CookieMaker/Tea. Quoted below: My first reaction: Scum nailed! It could be a very desperate townie but I doubt it, since he didn't even try to defend himself against the accusations. Will certainly be checking into AnxiousHippo as well. On January 06 2012 11:41 gonzaw wrote: Okay, there are 2 basic reasons for voting Tea (or AKCT, whatever): 1-For previous reasons of certain players 2-A bandwagon vote to avoid a no-lynch. Players in the 1st category would include: Me, Tunkmeg, Blurry Players in the 2nd category would include: CatsHats, Sheth, Prob, Jitsu, Cephiro, Hippo *sigh*, not really much to go on on that 2nd category, almost everybody reasoned their vote for Tea to avoid the no-lynch. However, some of the players in the 2nd one did FoS him before. Here I would just like to point out, as you might know if you've been reading filters, I did have a town-leaning read on Cookie/AKCT. The reason I voted for Tea was to avoid no-lynch, as probably mentioned before. I felt like I did not have enough time to try and convince 6 people to change their votes into someone I found scummy (such as Sheth), since I had barely recently defended myself from heavy accusations. And even if I had a feeling it would be a mis-lynch, I knew we would gain information from the reactions of other players. On January 06 2012 08:36 AnxiousHippo wrote: I haven't been able to go through everything as well as I hoped but we need a lynch. There was a lot of discussion on Cephiro but I haven't been able to read through it thoroughly enough so I'm going for Tea ##Unvote: Xeris ##Vote: A Killer Cuppa Tea Since when have you been able to go through anything? I don't think I've seen a single useful post from you in the whole game. On January 05 2012 12:57 Liquid`Sheth wrote: Let me go re-read / filter cookie. His one post that stuck out to me was him defending Cephiro and saying he was extremely pro-town. Honestly though, with just remembering cookies lines I don't think anything really stuck out. Will go re-read now.. On January 05 2012 23:48 Liquid`Sheth wrote: I read through CookieMaker's / A K C T's filter. Cookie's filter looked a little bad. He talked a lot about his read on CatsNHats and then never posted it. A K C T I like that your asking questions, but could you please post a few reads you have as well? @Probulous my 3 scummiest right now are probably Cookie ( A K C T ) / Cephiro and / Maybe blurry... he hasn't posted much and I'm not convinced CatsNhats isn't just completely new to the game. I'm willing to give him the benefit of the doubt while we have better people to pressure. At the point where he says his scummiest reads, which are me & Tea & MAYBE blurry, he hasn't provided any analysis against Cookie, just said "I read through his filter and it looked a little bad". On January 06 2012 08:26 Liquid`Sheth wrote: If you haven't voted for him, please vote for him. ##Unvote: Cephiro ##Vote: A Killer Cuppa Tea And bang, look at the quick change. If he really found me as scummy as he did, how come he didn't try to pressure me more than that even though there was time till lynch? I'll admit there wasn't much, but his whole Day 1 sums up to pressuring to get me lynched, mostly because of Probu's analysis. Where was the content? On January 06 2012 16:31 AnxiousHippo wrote: At the moment Cephiro looks more like mafia than CatsnHats, partly because I don't know what to make of Cats' "I give up post". He was also trying to play it safe till the pressure came on. I look more mafia than CatsnHats because of what? Your splendid analysis: On January 06 2012 16:31 AnxiousHippo wrote: He says he sees Jitsu and CM as slightly town and he's neutral on Tunkeg. He also falls back on "being excited" twice He also says he doesn't think Sheth is mafia but asks everyone else to watch him closely, implying he wants other people to call him out first so he doesn't have to worry about it. His vote for Tea was also just a placeholder even though he said none of his top 3 scumreads is Tea. What do my reads have to do with anything? Just because I had a neutral read on Tunkeg at that point, or that I saw Jitsu and CM as slightly town, had nothing to do with anything. You call me out for being excited. Now, come on really, couldn't you find anything better? And here you are making up the best laughter of the day (bolded). As far as I remember, I was the first person to pressure Sheth, and been suspicious of him all the time. At no point have I said that I don't think Sheth is mafia. What I said in your quote was that " I'll have my eyes on you Sheth. I'm not going to accuse you of being scum yet, but I suggest that you all watch Sheth's posts carefully" If I am suspicious of someone, why should I not tell it to everyone? If you think someone is scum, you tell it and try to provide points that back up your claim. You don't just sit back and hope someone else does it. And my vote is already explained. On January 07 2012 05:24 Liquid`Sheth wrote: This post seems like its one of two things. 1. Hes honestly just a newb who isn't dealing with the pressure very well. It happens and this post is just his way of taking the pressure off of him. 2. His scum buddies helped him post something that looks good and will take pressure off of him. I just CANT see him posting this as scum by himself. And this post seems like it was written exactly by CatsnHats, not by an outside helper as far as I can tell. Things like "this probably isn't the correct time" then still doing it, just seems very like cats. So, as I'm not convinced hes not mafia, I don't think he should be a lynch for us in day 2. If he is mafia he will definetly make some silly mistakes as we go along or he'll be dead. = Don't lynch my scumbuddy please. Tunkeg & Gonzaw fighting back and forth for no reason whatsoever, blah. Probu's Sheth read: + Show Spoiler + On January 07 2012 06:00 Probulous wrote: Alright, my Sheth read. I am not going to post a massive text wall, it is 7:30am on a Saturday, give me a little break These things bothered me. He seems to really want to talk about blue roles, I don't see the value in this and the potential risk. If we have blues, discussing roles can lead to an outing which is bad for all. Despite my constant requests for this to stop, he has kept on about them. Most of his posts are fluff (admittedly discussions with me took up quite a few). He blatant support of Xeris with this as his reasoning That last line is particularly bad. It is clear that online and offline mafia are totally different, Sheth knows this from playing two games yet he is pretty certain that Xeris is town based on his offline play? The only reason you are certain of someone's alignment is when they flip or if you are scum. His case on Cookie amounted to Which was enough to put his scum list as Cephiro pointed out his dropping of the Ceph case until I posted mine. Points in his favour He is active and was the first to call out both Cats and Cephiro. He is happy to respond and get engaged in large discussions. He voted early for AKCT who was already on his list of scum reads. So in short my read is still null  I can justify what he says from both a townie and scum perspective which makes him hard to read. I am still suspicious and will have a reread later in the day when I have more time and am a little more awake  After this I was quite disappointed, since I was still sure of my suspicions against Sheth. But I knew I would make a case and prove everyone the scum he is as soon as possible. Then I see Jitsu pressuring Sheth and AnxiousHippo. I like. + Show Spoiler + On January 07 2012 06:20 Jitsu wrote: That doesn't fly with me. Let me explain why. Nice first post. You jump on CatsnHats for doing scummy things. Perfect, exactly what I would like to see from a first post from someone. You get him, jump right up there and pressure that little weasel... ...wait, what the shit is this? You start pressuring someone, than let off because you think he's new. Why does being new matter? So he can't be responsible for his own actions? Why are you letting him off the hook so easily without even squeezing him a little bit? This was the post right after you vote Cephiro. After Probu posts his analysis, you step right on that train, right away. The only form of suspicion you threw on Cephiro was more wobbly than a Jenga tower. Than as soon as someone else votes for him, you vote for him. You even say that you saw some things that looked like he was scummy, but you let him off the hook too. Weird. You are the IdrA of Mafia? Ok. So why did you stop putting all forms of pressure on Cats so early? + Show Spoiler + On January 05 2012 23:48 Liquid`Sheth wrote: @Probulous my 3 scummiest right now are probably Cookie ( A K C T ) / Cephiro and / Maybe blurry... he hasn't posted much and I'm not convinced CatsNhats isn't just completely new to the game. I'm willing to give him the benefit of the doubt while we have better people to pressure. 1) If you were a Cop (could determine the alignment of somebody during the night), who's alignment would you check and why? NOT Probulous, as I'd be worried he was going to die at night, I'd determine someone such as Gonzaw or Tunkeg. 2) If you were a Doc (could save someone from a nightkill), who would you save and why? I would save one of Probulous, Myself, Gonzaw and Tunkeg. 3) If you were a Vigilante (town-aligned nightkill) who would you kill and why? Probably no one, if I was forced to kill someone (Town CK) I'd probably kill A K C T (Cookie Maker) or Cephiro, depending on who we lynch. 4) If you were a Town-Aligned Roleblocker (could prevent someone from using their night action for a night) who would you block, and why? (Also, remember, an RB can act as a soft-cop. If you block someone and there's no nightkill, you may have blocked the mafia's kill! (Yes i know there's no Vig or RB in this setup.)) I'd probably RB either Cephiro or Cookie, depending on who we lynch. 5) If you have a vote on someone currently, please explain your vote. I have a vote on Cephiro. Its explained in two posts that I posted earlier + Prob's analysis. 6) If you don't have a vote on somebody, please park your vote on someone. Have an opinion. It doesn't matter if you're wrong. Abstainance lets scum hide amongst you! Now you're opinion went from Cats being scummy, to him being new? Than AKCT goes up for lynching, and you jump to that one with new real analysis posting. At that point, it was a bandwagon lynch, but what was YOU'RE Reasoning? RE: Hippo - I just realized how you worded this. You say that you will go over everything tomorrow morning and change a vote if need be. What? If it's not on time, you will just not vote, or leave it on Xeris? Wow. Stellar. So you jump on this lynch train and don't even bother to explain why. Not only that, but you pretty much indicate that you are going off of what other people have discussed, and not come up with anything concrete on you're own, pretty much re-leaving all pressure from you if it's a miss-lynch. Time for the first post-split. | ||
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Cephiro
Finland1934 Posts
On January 07 2012 09:02 Liquid`Sheth wrote: Ok then, you think Cats is scum. At the beginning I could have pressured Cats more, I agree. However it appeared he simply didn't understand the basics of Mafia. However shortly after, I started putting most of my attention on looking at Cephiro. I didn't just stop all pressure on him though however like you assumed. It was just a temporary relieve to let him relax and get comfy again before taking away that relaxed state really quickly. The next post saying that he looked "oh so scummy" was merely a way to get some pressure back on him. Also, its the first day. I'm not letting people go. I'm simply moving on to different people, it doesn't mean I can't and won't bring it back up. As you've noticed I'm currently pro lynching Cephiro. In fact I think he should be our #1 lynch target tomorrow. As for me going to the A K C T bandwagon your welcome to read my filter. Considering you made me read yours instead of just saying "I think hes scum" have fun reading mine again. And yes, right now I'm leaning Cats as town. I've also posted my reasoning for that. However I'm not "letting him off the hook". If he doesn't stay active then hes an obvious lynch target. However as of now hes posting and hes posting a lot. You say at the beginning that we shouldn't just wait and let him make more scum slips. Well, I don't think he should be our lynch target today, you think he should be sense you think hes scum? You temporarily stopped pressure on me to let me relax? Come on, why on earth would a townie do that to his strongest scum-read? And your way of pressuring me again: "He looks so scummy", are you serious? And yet you are saying I should be the lynch target #1. Nice try on dodging the fact you joined the Tea bandwagon without providing close to any content yourself. "Read my filter". Well I did and I didn't find you pressuring nor being even very much against Tea at all, just sheeping "He is scum", after reading Probu's analysis. Why do you find Cats down? Because you want to save your scumbuddy! But now you are both being revealed, how does that feel? On January 07 2012 09:43 Liquid`Sheth wrote: Night ends soon and I don't have time now. Ends in 22 minutes. I'm still working atm and when I'm done I'm going to go to sleep. I want it to be perfect and make sense completely. I'm upset we didn't lynch him last day and I think its because of sloppy posts not explaining all there is on him atm. Will also be interesting to see who died. If its me then sorry, and you already know my read on him is scum, and me dieing should give you clues too. So, as much as I'd like to give my full read on him before the end of night I'm not going to have time. You posted your entire read on me, I bet that took a while. I just don't have time to do that atm and want to do it right. I certainly hope I get to see this and use it against you scum. On January 07 2012 09:48 Liquid`Sheth wrote: + Show Spoiler + On January 07 2012 09:36 Jitsu wrote: I'm not back and forth'ing with Tunk. XD RE: Sheth - What kind of question is that? I post an analysis, than I vote for him, and than you ask me if I think he should be lynched? Does that look like a newbie post to you? If I was being accused of Mafia, I would prove my innocence by finding scum. Not by trying the town to lynch myself. In other words, having the town waste another day to lynch me if I was town is anti-town in and of itself. I think he's banking on the fact that he's trying to pull at our oh-so-tender heartstrings. Thoughts? Didn't notice you voted on him. Didn't realize you could vote on someone during night phase... And yes that post was really well done. Thats ONE post of his. (What is OMGUS?) Do the rest look like veteran posts to you? Like his gambit of trying to get himself lynched is stupid. When ProfBA did it, it was stupid too. ProfBA was a veteran though, he had a lot of good posts, he even got elected as something. In what crazy world would we elect this Catsnhats? I don't see him coming up with the same thing as ProfBA... And ProfBA isn't a coach for this. However I don't think it means hes not mafia, I just don't think hes our best read. Give him the rest of this day and I might agree that hes surely mafia, but can you at least agree to give him that time? IdrA is actually a lot nicer then people give him credit for. :[ "My scumbuddy is a newbie regardless that he made a good post, anyone could do a random good post!" He doesn't need to "come up with the same thing as ProfBA", someone else that knows the game of his scumbuddies could have suggested him that since they couldn't come up with a defense for him even together.... you maybe? You constantly ask more mercy for him.... then why don't you try to prove someone else is a bigger threat? Like me that you've been trying to get killed out of your way all the time? Too bad you didn't get the job done on the first cycle. And now we're going to LYNCH you before you can night-kill me on N2, how does that sound? On January 07 2012 10:30 AnxiousHippo wrote: I'm working on the bandwagon analysis ... Is he still working on it? On January 07 2012 12:59 CatsnHats wrote: In regard to my martyr post, I'll admit that I felt pretty defeated when I was writing it, but then I realized that I could use your reactions as fodder for evidence and as a way of generating discussion, so I lurked and waited. I was pretty disappointed for the most part, a lot of "Don't give up for the town's sake" responses that came from the players with really town-y reads already (Prob, Gonzaw, Tunkeg), and this was meant to find scum, not confirm town. But then AnxiousHippo posted thank goodness, something I could make a read on. Oh really? So in reality you're just a clever townie fishing for reactions. What a surprising turn of events..... And then you found one person even more wishy-washy sheepier than you! Congratulations. Now to blame him to get pressure off yourself? + Show Spoiler + On January 06 2012 16:31 AnxiousHippo wrote: @CatsNHats get your head back in the game if you're town you should be more focused on killing mafia than convincing everyone you're a dead weight. Just keep trying, your last paragraph was decent, try expanding on that. Thanks for the pep-talk, the thing is though, it's the exact same thing that Probulous wrote, just in less words. Bandwagon post to make yourself look town if you ask me. This has to be the best accusation ever. Do you really think this would distract us from you? + Show Spoiler + On January 06 2012 11:40 Probulous wrote: Don't you dare throw in the towel! That is a shitty thing to do. Hell ask for a replacement if this is too hard for you. If you are town, fight for your life. I am pissed at AKCT for his apathy. You at least have been posting. Take a break and come back later with a case on someone. You realise if you throw in the towel and you are green you are severly handicapping the rest of us? You noticed that Hippo hasn't been contributing. Do what Gonz did and make people see your point of view. The argument against you is long and has substantial evidence. There isn't anything you can really do except be useful to town. I hate it when people do this. It is so passive aggressive and weak. Grow a spine and take the heat. If you get lynched, well better luck next time. But this, is aweful. And why would you compliment my last paragraph? Because it points the finger at you. If I didn't include you, would that make it better than "decent"? Or are you just complimenting it because you think I would let you off the hook? And this is the time when you randomly start pointing small suspicions against everyone random, hoping to confuse people a bit. Seriously, calling Probu out on that? And then this: + Show Spoiler + On January 06 2012 16:31 AnxiousHippo wrote: When? Don't think we've forgotten. Really? After everyone else has already agreed that he needs to respond and has been pressured, you jump on the bandwagon and offer this filler BS? You're going to have to do better than that. You also say that Xeris doesn't look scummy because we have nothing to go on, but his posts are more questionable than Gretorp, a player you are bandwagon pressuring. Are you just trying to protect Xeris, a scum friend? Oh wow, you did find one more thing to blame Hippo for. At least you're trying... sorry, not enough. You're still scum. 9 (excluding me) people left. 3 are mafia. AnxiousHippo, Blurry, Gretorp, and Xeris have all drawn suspicion for either lurking, contradicting themselves, shady behavior, etc. Do I think the whole mafia is in these 4? NO. Do I think at least one, maybe of them is? Yes. In light of recent events, AnxiousHippo has done the most to damn himself in my eyes, but we're kinda stuck on Gretorp and Xeris until they answer or get modkilled. That leaves Blurry, I'll analyze his filter and post later. Who's ProfBA? I thought you all were mistyping Prob but you kept saying it so I'm confused. @Sheth This is the definition of OMGUS from the TL Newbie Thread Cookie linked: "OMGUS: Oh my God! You suck! Voting for someone just because they are voting for you" Is this better guys? I'm really trying here. "Do I look innocent enough already? Can I stop trying to look like a townie and just make you trust me?" I will comment mine in bolded in the post above since I am too lazy to make 5 split quotes. This is part 2. More coming up... | ||
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Cephiro
Finland1934 Posts
On January 07 2012 17:19 Blurry wrote: I've been trying to figure out why someone would target Tunkeg rather than someone like Probulous (posted the most analysis and was one of the most assertive players thus far). I think this could potentially tell us certain things. Probulous posted his reads on all the players in the game categorizing them by who he thought was town/neutral/mafia. While this does not make him seem any more scummy. My instinct on this is that a player who is mafia is categorized by him as being town and this cover would be useful to the mafia in some way. My other thought is that Tunkeg was pressuring someone that was mafia in a way that made him the biggest threat. He was pressuring Gonzaw and Cephiro and also did a little bit on Sheth. Since Cephiro was already cast under so much suspicion by Probulous I infer that there is a high chance that either Gonzaw or Sheth, or both are scum and am going to re-read their posts thoroughly. My initial instinct is that Sheth is the more likely candidate as he has literally posted zero analysis and has simply pressured or challenged peoples points rather than helping us weed out scum. I am yet not sure what to think of you, but at least you are right in one thing whether you are a townie, or mafia trying to gain town-cred. On January 07 2012 21:11 Probulous wrote: The only issue I had post his defense was his vote reason (a placeholder vote). He could have voted for one of his scum-reads but he chose to follow the crowd. This keeps him on my watch list. As for Sheth, I am almost certain he is scum. I have read and re-read the thread over and over and there are some things I cannot reconcile. His insistent early support for Xeris over Gretorp being the first that springs to mind. I am putting together my case on him but want people to take a good look and tell me why he isn't mafia. Full case coming soonish! I'll admit I maybe should have done that, but I didn't want to give the mafia a chance to no-lynch, nor give someone the impression that I was trying to jack the vote towards a no-lynch (pro-mafia play). But today, we lynch scum. Because we're going to lynch Sheth. Once I read the bolded, I knew we were going in the right direction today. Finally more people would realize the killer that hided behind the manner. And once I saw Probu's case of the D2 on Sheth, especially considering he is probably the strongest town read for many. (Which no-one should take for granted!), I got the feeling that today is the day the first scum falls. On January 08 2012 10:31 gonzaw wrote: ?? I had a null read on him until you posted your case, in which case I now have a scum read on him. You posted your case on him after you posed that question, so my answer was about what I thought of him at that point in time. I don't get how that could be misinterpreted. And yes, Sheth hasn't really been accused until now, his response can make us change our minds or make us more assured if he's scum. And I think we can notice if he's trying to "cast doubt" on what you've written. However I won't be around to see it. I'm going out now, and tomorrow as soon as I wake up I'll be going out of town for like 1-2 days, so I won't be around until that time. I hope I get back before it's too late on Day 3 though. So fuck Sheth, I was waiting for his response, but I need to make a placeholder vote, and the case against him is the best we have at the moment IMO, considering Blurry is ignoring me and Xeris just disappeared off the face of the Earth. ##Vote: Liquid`Sheth This is a very weird post for me. You have been trying so hard to provide content and analysis yourself earlier, but now you went from a null read to scum read just because of Probu's post? I admit that Probu posts good and convincing cases, but please people, think for yourselves too! If he's the one controlling the game with his analysis with everyone just jumping on the bandwagon, in the case he is mafia we're fucked. I am not saying he is, I got a town-read on him myself at the moment, but don't take it for granted! Anyway, this post made me more curious, I will have to read through gonzaw's filter again soon. Liquid`Sheth wrote: You keep him in your scum list, but you don't keep pressuring him. You just act meaner to a guy who is acting newb. This is the sort of non-stop pressure that almost caused him to try and "lynch" himself. I still don't think Cats is mafia based on his posts and what not. However I obviously want to keep pressure on him. Thats what I've been saying this whole time, but now I'm stuck responding to these posts. From your response to Probu's analysis about you. We're not acting extra-mean to anyone. Could you provide some back-up for your claims of Cats being townie? All you say is the bolded, which is basically nothing. His posts and what not? But you obviously want to keep pressure on him, when you just said that sort of non-stop pressure almost made a townie suicide? Contradictory. Protection of scumbuddy, failed. Liquid`Sheth wrote: This is horrible logic. Your logic has just been way off recently. Xeris' post just seemed townie at the time. Gretorps did as well, and I've explained about Xeris too much. And if you'd known Xeris in RL you'd understand. I really wish Gretorp would come on and explain this sometime, but sense hes apparently always afk your just bringing up a point I can't verify. I don't like how your taking something that I can bring to town (my knowledge of both of them in Real life) and trying to point it out as invalid. You think my one post of defending Xeris makes him mafia if I am? You've just created a lot of text here again, that doesn't say anything. + Yes its different, but all knowledge should be used? Again, why would you not want me to bring these things up? If you've known someone for 10 years both ONLINE AND OFFLINE, HOW IN THE WORLD would I not have a good read on them. No matter how well you know them, I doubt you can know if they are mafia or town by 3-4 pretty much oneliner posts about promising more. Or then you're one heck of a mindreader. I still don't get why you are protecting them so hard. Admittingly it's impossible to make a case on them on anything else than lurking, and if they are townies then they are making the game considerably harder for us :/ Hopefully we'll get replacements soon. Liquid`Sheth wrote: In a lot of the games I've played previously a DT for a mafia is a good trade. I think its a good trade here as well if they have a few people who are confirmed townies. You suggest here that DT can find mafia on his own then post his reads just like the rest of us. If the DT has 2 mafia he should for sure just come out and say it I think. So more just wrong information... A DT for a mafia is a good trade? Certainly not this early in the game. How can you be sure someone is DT if another person would counterclaim? You were fishing for blue roles earlier, are you afraid of the chance a medic could block your night-kills? On January 08 2012 11:23 CatsnHats wrote: Cephiro really impressed me with the way he defended himself against your analysis. His statistics post people got angry at him for isn't really that big of a deal for me since it was his first post and it's his first game of forum mafia. Ceph was also the first the post a write-up on all the town, although you picked it apart later. I still think that counts for something. He called out Sheth in his defense post for Sheth's wishy washy play, and later pressured me on my terrible play up to that point. His analysis was the reason I made the martyr post. There was no real way for me to defend my play up to the point, and seeing it written up that way I knew I was distracting from catching scum. His analysis is very good, and I hope he gets back from his sports tournament soon because he's an asset to this town. Cephiro is definitely a town read for me. Sheth endeared himself in my eyes for defending my newb-play in the beginning, and even after my martyr post he still had a town read for me. I'm starting to think that's because he KNOWS I'm town though. Prob's and Jitsu's analysis has definitely cast a black cloud on the nicest guy in esports. He has ghosted on Prob's analysis of Cephiro, basically promising analysis in the morning on someone's that bothered him. Prob posts his Ceph analysis, and then Sheth's like "oh yeah we was mine too." Just seems like he was waiting for someone to post original content so he can ghost it. And the way he has handled the Xeris situation is shady as well. Sheth is our best case so far, but I'm really holding out hope (albeit a faint one) that Xeris, Gretorp, or AH will talk before the lynch. I will at least do this: ##Unvote: CatsnHats I'm not going anywhere unless the town or mafia decides it. At this point you seem fairly suspicious of Sheth. Why do you suddenly find him so town? You keep changing your minds on everyone, I just don't understand what the hell is going on in your head. Either you are the most confused player ever, or then you're clever mafia trying to get back in by confusing everyone and trying to get on the right bandwagons in time. I suspect the latter. On January 08 2012 11:58 CatsnHats wrote: @Prob yeah I do think they are (Blurry too) better scum targets than Sheth. I think we are letting the terrible activity level of half this town make us point the finger at each other. @Sheth you're exactly right. I'm ghosting on Prob's analysis of you. Gonzaw ghosted on it too and has already put a placeholder vote on you. I REALLY don't like that. He says that your words in your defense could have an effect on changing his mind, but that he won't be around to see it. WHAT IS THAT? This is a really important time in this game. We really need a lynch on mafia. That doesn't sit well with me. @Everyone The phrase I bolded is really interesting to me. It seems like the town (including myself) has followed Probulous without much question. He has posted so much many long posts so often that we have written him off as town without thought and reanalysis. Do you think that Probulous is getting by without enough criticism? He's not a D2 lynch target by any means, but do you think that is true? This is NOT FOS, I'm just asking a question. The lurkers are better targets in your opinion. I admit it's certainly not pro-town play, but considering they are about to get modkilled or replaced, why would you not try to pick out the active scum? Even if they both would be mafia (Which I find very unlikely, and quite sure that's not the case), there would be still one scum remaining among the active players. Go and find that one! Then you talk about how people ghost Probu's analysis, even YOURSELF. But then you are getting suspicious on Gonzaw for doing the same. Do you have enough fingers to point in all those directions? I sure don't. Then you are "not suspecting Probu", but curious about if people are letting him by too easily. Sure, you can ask about it from others, but make a case on it yourself if you think that's what happening. I've seen at least me and Sheth critizise his analysis (admittingly, we were the ones being accused). On January 08 2012 12:44 Liquid`Sheth wrote: I've been too distracted by all of this pressure on me that I havn't done another full write up on Cephiro. That's no excuse, even to this point I haven't seen but smaller analysis from you, not a single "full write-up". Too distracted by all the pressure on you? That sure didn't prevent me from trying to catch scum when I was under pressure, even though admittingly delaying it a bit. Post 3. More coming up. | ||
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Cephiro
Finland1934 Posts
On January 08 2012 13:44 CatsnHats wrote: I don't feel comfortable voting for you Sheth. I think Xeris, Gretorp, AnxiousHippo, and Blurry all have had as much scummy behavior as you, just less activity. I think you are getting targeted because you have a higher quantity of posts, making it easier for you to be quoted/analyzed. My target right now would be Blurry or AnxiousHippo, mainly because they are the most likely to respond at this point. Blurry has made 11 posts overall (an amount big enough to be remembered, but not enough to be picked apart like you), 1post yesterday, which is WIFOM filler and one post today, which was WIFOM filler. His big analysis post was 1-2 sentences on each player. Not enough content. Thoughts? Seriously, your reasons to defend Sheth are horrible. Actually, they're non-existant. "The lurkers look scummy and I think you are being picked on because you're active". He took a risk by playing active, trying to look like a townie, and it backfired since we were able to get the real read on him. You're not going to talk your way out of yourself being scum, and you're not going to be able to save your buddy Sheth either. When either of you flips red today, we have our target for tomorrow. On January 08 2012 14:16 Liquid`Sheth wrote: @Cats / Blurry/ Anxious and even you Cephiro the proven townie of Probulous, are you willing to put your vote on me? You should answer this one way or the other. Please don't just say "because Probulous says so" though. Find your own reasons for lynching me, and just please check my answer for it, if I've answered whatever problem you may have with me. We should be looking at others and I really wish I had the energy to write up a huge post tonight on everyone. Responsibility just ended, G'nite guys, cya in the morning. Yes, I certainly am. I find it hilarious how you're trying to make me look scummy by making a sarcastical remark about Probu's current read on me. It's not like he determines who is town or scum, we all do ourselves. And I'm certainly not voting for you "just because Probulous says so". I've had my reasons for lynching you for quite a while, and now I'm finally on the edge of getting to some results. On January 08 2012 22:40 Blurry wrote: + Show Spoiler + On January 08 2012 10:21 Probulous wrote: Terrible post, Gonz is right this tells us nothing at all. However you at least posted your thoughts on Sheth (Cats I'm looking at you). So to make it easy Blurry, would you vote to lynch Sheth? If not why not? Yes I would, and will. #Vote: Liquid'Sheth As to gonzaw's statement of me simply regurgitating information. For the most part that has been true but I've been going by my gut, which is not something you can post when convincing other people to take your side. I've been suspicious of Sheth from the start but don't have the analysis skills to back it up (I know that will read as scummy but bear with me) and write an informed post as to why. If I don't have the evidence to back up my feelings then there is no point in posting it. This post is just... I don't really know even what to say. Even if you have only a gut feeling, then try and try even harder to find those flaws in their play which can back up your gut feeling. There must be something that causes you the gut feeling. Reasoning that you don't have the analysis skills to back it up is not enough. Everyone may not be able to make 2000 word wall-of-texts, but you can certainly contribute even without doing so. You're not looking good... Step it up or be the next in line for a lynch. I finally find Sheth's analysis I've been waiting for! On January 09 2012 05:03 Liquid`Sheth wrote: 1. AnxiousHippo : Starts off stating he is a new player (2nd game) and doens't know what to do early on. Starts off with pressuring CookieMaker Not confident enough on his read on cookiemaker and puts a placeholder vote on Xeris. Then instead of reverting back to his own case on CM, he states he hasn't had enough time to read others cases on CM (A K C T) and votes on him to avoid a no-lynch. He then posts a nice argument against Cephiro : + Show Spoiler + On January 06 2012 16:31 AnxiousHippo wrote: When? Don't think we've forgotten. Xeris doesn't quite look scummy because we have nothing to analyse him on but he does look pretty dodgy, especially with Sheth's post in mind. He's already been warned, in a not-newbie game it'd be a modkill. At the moment Cephiro looks more like mafia than CatsnHats, partly because I don't know what to make of Cats' "I give up post". He was also trying to play it safe till the pressure came on. He says he sees Jitsu and CM as slightly town and he's neutral on Tunkeg. He also falls back on "being excited" twice He also says he doesn't think Sheth is mafia but asks everyone else to watch him closely, implying he wants other people to call him out first so he doesn't have to worry about it. His vote for Tea was also just a placeholder even though he said none of his top 3 scumreads is Tea. @Jitsu if you look back at where he said Tea you'd see that I talked right before and after. @CatsNHats get your head back in the game if you're town you should be more focused on killing mafia than convincing everyone you're a dead weight. Just keep trying, your last paragraph was decent, try expanding on that. Then says hes working on "bandwagon analysis" which he has yet to post. Null read. I like it how the biggest part of your analysis on him is about when he made his poor case on me, trying to accuse me for the worst reasons ever, but you lift it up as a "Nice case". Trying to get everyone's attention on me eh? More text coming up.. this is taking longer than I expected. Especially going to check up on a certain few of Sheth's analyses. | ||
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Cephiro
Finland1934 Posts
On January 09 2012 05:03 Liquid`Sheth wrote: I'm asking when is wise for blue roles to come out. As this is a newb game and it STILL hasn't been covered much I think its very valid. Your statistics just told us %'s, but nothing on when they should come out and help town. You take something that is pro-townie and call it "obvious mafia trying to fish out the players with power roles". Thats not something a townie would do. You keep up bringing my statistics which talk about chances in percentages even though I admit they were useless at that point and I dropped them since. On the other hand, percents come up in your filter a few times as well. Blaming me on something you do yourself? Trying to constantly fish on blues yourself, you try and claim that is trying to help them into realizing when they should claim. Now that's not something a townie would do. On January 09 2012 05:03 Liquid`Sheth wrote: He then calls me out for "bandwagoning" himself Your defense to this was putting "" these on the word bandwagoning. Not convincing. Couldn't take the truth? Liquid`Sheth wrote: I guess I should have brought all of this up earlier, but I thought Prob's post was good enough to get us lynching him. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Again, not continuing your pressure, but letting someone do the dirty work for you. What on earth are you doing Sheth, at first you tell everyone that they should not trust you or anyone else, but think for themselves, and now you're bandwagoning hardcore. My response is under the line. Check the bolded. You have thought of me as scum the whole game, yet you don't push for it. Bad Sheth, Bad. On January 09 2012 05:29 Liquid`Sheth wrote: 8. Blurry -- Havn't filtered you in depth yet, but can get into basics. You assume that mafia targeted Tunkeg for a completely different reason then I believe. You believe its because of his reads on people such as myself / gonzaw and cephiro. You feel like thats why it was him instead of Probulous. I think its just because up to this point Probulous was the most "town" feeling and mafia was worried there was a medic involved. Leaving out quite a bit since I'm not here to nitpick on his analysis about Blurry. Check the bolded. If anyone, wouldn't he as mafia know the reasoning why Tunkeg was targeted. On January 09 2012 05:33 CatsnHats wrote: @Sheth You aren't my best read on scum, I said the town had the best case against you because Prob had just made his long analysis post. Then you defended yourself, which I was waiting on, and because of it I'm not comfortable voting for you. I'm still convinced than when Xeris and Gretorp are killed one of them will turn red, and Hippo and Blurry have always been more questionable than you in my eyes. Honestly I would vote for myself with Jitsu and you if it meant keeping you alive, because you are obviously much better at making reads and are a bigger asset to the town than I am. Here you are, ready to save your scumbuddy. After your martyr post, you haven't really been making cases against anyone, but you've been defending Sheth a surprisingly lot since Probu's case on him. But you haven't provided any real reasons for that before this, and all you say is "because of his defense". You don't point out what made you lean town on him. Not convincing enough. I'll do admit Hippo & Blurry are questionable, but more than Sheth? No townie should do the bolded. No one. On January 09 2012 05:37 Liquid`Sheth wrote: Having re-read Jitsu's filter and Cats' filter a couple of times, I feel confident that Cats actually has been getting help from his mafia brethren on a few posts and that he actually is scum. I think he is our best bet at getting a mafia tonight, and when he flips red we'll have much more information to go on. ##Vote: Catsnhats Ah, the mafia sacrifices one of their members for their dear godfather. Could the bolded be because you tried your best to help him get back in the game, helping his posts and trying to gain him some town-cred? But that plan didn't work, so he has to save you instead. On January 09 2012 05:44 Liquid`Sheth wrote: + Show Spoiler + On January 09 2012 05:33 CatsnHats wrote: @Sheth You aren't my best read on scum, I said the town had the best case against you because Prob had just made his long analysis post. Then you defended yourself, which I was waiting on, and because of it I'm not comfortable voting for you. I'm still convinced than when Xeris and Gretorp are killed one of them will turn red, and Hippo and Blurry have always been more questionable than you in my eyes. Honestly I would vote for myself with Jitsu and you if it meant keeping you alive, because you are obviously much better at making reads and are a bigger asset to the town than I am. @CatsnHats Wowowowow what is this. You're just doing this really passive sort of thing and trying to self-lynch yourself. There is NO reason you should do this if you are townie. You should FIND someone you think is scum. THERE IS NO REASON FOR YOU TO VOTE FOR YOURSELF IF YOUR TOWN. It means its the lurkers, or one of the actives, people are good at hiding if there mafia and we need townies alive and fighting. I see no reason for a townie to try this a second time, but man if your town this is going to be really bad if we lynch you. Here, I'll try and steel internet from my friends house (where I'm watching the game) and keep watching this thread and what your saying. I'm not letting you off because of this though, we'll see if you can change my mind before then. Hilariously enough, this is your next post. Trying to make up for Cats' slip, so that no-one would think that Cats is dying to save his ass. On January 09 2012 08:11 CatsnHats wrote: EBWOP: and Prob I agree I have little to no influence on this town, but those are blatant mistakes that need to be corrected. Allowed, will check into them asap. Liquid`Sheth wrote: JUST BUSSING ME FOR NO REASON. YOUR SO MAFIA. LOL. No reason indeed. And you say I should read the thread? | ||
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Cephiro
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 Can't wait to see the first scum hanging. Don't you dare to change votes... | ||
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On January 09 2012 10:01 Probulous wrote: ROFL INDEED! :D Did we get enough votes to lynch him or not? | ||
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On January 09 2012 10:03 Probulous wrote: Only just, at first I thought it was an attempt to no-lynch but I see now it just meant that he didn't have to vote for himself. I like that  I already got scared for a moment. A no-lynch would have got the mafia a free kill. Now all that remains is to see Sheth flip red.... if he won't I'll be damned. | ||
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On January 09 2012 10:07 CatsnHats wrote: I have a feeling you're gonna be damned... just sayin'. And I have a feeling that your scumbuddy is going to be hanged... just sayin'. | ||
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Also.... You're looking quite bad Cats. The only thing that will save you is if we find the third scum during D3. | ||
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Hopefully the replacements will have caught up on the thread and join in the action asap. And a totally offtopic note: I realized I've written over 10k words on this so far. Could use all that productivity on studying... On January 09 2012 11:49 bkrow wrote: What is up town!? So when they say Newbie Mafia <--- that's me! But i will do my best to catch up as much as possible! (Only 30 pages LOL! Time to use that ALL button )Good lynch on Sheth - i just can't picture the manner bear being scum though :p On January 09 2012 11:50 bkrow wrote: Lol at the arrow point to mafia - i was meant to be accentuating the "Newbie" part Totally offtopic, but I laughed my ass off at this. Nice start! On January 09 2012 14:44 Paperscraps wrote: Hey Everybody, Glad to be here. I have been "semi" keeping up with the thread, but I will need to read through the filters to get a better read on people. I definitely plan on being more active than my predecessor. I seem to be leaning a bit toward scum on blurry and xeris (kronhjort). I can't stay up too late tonight due to school in the morning. I plan on providing some analysis and reads tomorrow. Your opinion about Cats? As for now, my positive reads: Probulous - Town Jitsu - Town Gonzaw - Slightly Town | ||
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On January 10 2012 06:46 Probulous wrote: How cursed are we? It has been 20 hours since replacement and kronhjort hasn't posted and all that Paperscraps has posted is a couple of welcome lines and @Ceph, I am still waiting on your reads. @Jitsu I am assuming you are sticking with Cats and Blurry? Talk about nice timing. Will get into the rest of my reads soon. For once this way around. | ||
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The only thing which I am a bit surprised of is that Paper in his first post considers Xeris / Blurry scummy, but doesn't mention AnxiousHippo or Cats. We'll see soon enough. Xeris / Kronhjort = Null / Slightly leaning towards scum. Xeris was pushing quite hard (relative to his level of activeness) for his townyness, and no-lynching. Nothing from Kronhjort yet, so my opinion on this could change relatively easily. Also as Probu pointed out (yeah, go on and call me for ghosting on someone that doesn't have anything new to talk about), Sheth's comments about him aren't making him look any better. AnxiousHippo / Bkrow = Slightly leaning towards scum AnxiousHippo, I really don't have much new stuff to offer on him. His early game looks like a newbie town trying to contribute, but closer to the end of D1, it becomes more and more useless. On January 06 2012 16:31 AnxiousHippo wrote: When? Don't think we've forgotten. Xeris doesn't quite look scummy because we have nothing to analyse him on but he does look pretty dodgy, especially with Sheth's post in mind. He's already been warned, in a not-newbie game it'd be a modkill. At the moment Cephiro looks more like mafia than CatsnHats, partly because I don't know what to make of Cats' "I give up post". He was also trying to play it safe till the pressure came on. He says he sees Jitsu and CM as slightly town and he's neutral on Tunkeg. He also falls back on "being excited" twice He also says he doesn't think Sheth is mafia but asks everyone else to watch him closely, implying he wants other people to call him out first so he doesn't have to worry about it. His vote for Tea was also just a placeholder even though he said none of his top 3 scumreads is Tea. @Jitsu if you look back at where he said Tea you'd see that I talked right before and after. @CatsNHats get your head back in the game if you're town you should be more focused on killing mafia than convincing everyone you're a dead weight. Just keep trying, your last paragraph was decent, try expanding on that. This is probably his worst post. (In my opinion). First he pushes Gretorp... after everyone else did it already, we don't really need everyone to do that. Especially not trying to make it look like you're the first one doing it. Then he makes an insanely bad case against me. (Okay, I'll give him credit for trying, but in my opinion most of those points are so poor... I can't believe he didn't find anything more on me since he clearly tried, especially after Probu's case.) After that, all we see is a promise of bandwagon analysis into disappearance. Not good. Bkrow has a hilarious start. With the arrow pointing mistake. He is at least trying to look like he is providing content, but in my opinion he isn't looking very townie so far: On January 09 2012 12:21 bkrow wrote: Cats what convinces you about Blurry being scum? I am reading through his filter and the scummiest thing i have come across is him advocating a no lynch on day 1 - but he seemed to go back on that idea later on. He also voted for Sheth straight up (from what i can see) and with such little KP it would be hard to see him doing that without some sort of indecision. Sorry if i am rehashing old stuff i am just catching up still; i think we should be looking at: a) people who were hesitant to vote Sheth b) those who tried to offer alternate targets but once Sheth came up jumped on the "bandwagon" and c) the lurkers who make me angryThis is probably his best post. Questioning Cats's case, and providing his own point of view where we are likely to find scum. Note the bolded, I will get to it soon. On January 09 2012 12:49 bkrow wrote: To be honest, considering those posts i don't see the case against Blurry more convincing than the case against Gretorp (now replaced by Paperscraps) - either Gretorp is very busy or very bad at being scum. Neither of those 2 situations are beneficial for town; but he is the first one that really grabbed my attention as inactive and intentionally dodging questions. He even promised analysis and.. well yeah.. I would love to hear from Paperscraps after he has caught up on the thread Trying to focus attention on the other lurker, not providing analysis why he thinks Blurry is no more scum than Gretorp. You're allowed to have your own opinion, but please back it up with something. On January 09 2012 14:10 bkrow wrote: I can't really speak for my predecessor but i think the fact that he got replaced illustrates his involvement with the game and provides an explanation for his inactivity. As for the dodging questions - well again, if he was inactive enough to get replaced then i doubt he was actively dodging questions - if he was, well then lol he is bad. I looked through Xeris' filter - all 3 (?) posts? Lurkers are particularly dangerous not only because they add nothing, but they are just so hard to read as there is nothing to go off. Also because this is a mini mafia, a mislynch on a lurker can do some damage. I say we place FoS on Xeris (his replacement) and at the very least it will give him a chance to explain himself. For now i see Xeris as a more viable target based on Sheth's comments - but then again, to come out in such defence of a particular person when you are scum is basically tying your fates, so this may have been Sheth's attempt to latch onto a townie and at least secure some result if he was lynched. This slightly looks like trying to make up for the mistakes that Hippo did, to secure his own play further. (The first bolded part.) He talks about Xeris here which other people have already pointed at, but he keeps juggling "it could be or it could not be". Now he would like to hear more about Paperscraps (Gretorp's replacement), and FoS Xeris (The other lurker that is already under suspicion). He has only provided anything towards his c)-category, but nothing about the people that belonged to his a or b category. (Cats for example.) My current opinion on scum: AnxiousHippo(bkrow)/Xeris(Kronhjort) is one of the scum, and Cats is the other. | ||
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On January 10 2012 09:02 Probulous wrote: I'm an idiot. That is twice in one game!  I was confused at first but do you mean the fact daypost is coming in one hour, not yet? I think it's very unlikely that you, me and Jitsu would be alive after the night, but we'll see what happens. I certainly hope I don't die yet just as I got to celebrate the victory of hanging the first scum. | ||
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We will catch the mafia and avenge your death! | ||
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On January 10 2012 10:04 Probulous wrote: Anyone roleblocked? Is there a specific reason you are trying to find out? I really don't think the blues should reveal themselves yet unless they got something really useful that will pretty much win us the game. | ||
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On January 10 2012 10:09 CatsnHats wrote: Is this the proper time to announce it? I wasn't, but I've already said I don't have a role. I'm starting to think the mafia is afraid that we have a medic though. That's why they went for Tunk and Jitsu and not you Prob, for fear of the medic saving you (our "leader" of sorts). On January 10 2012 09:56 Probulous wrote: In fact if I had to guess, it would be either myself or Jitsu. Cephiro has enough of a bad filter to be pushed as a lynch (despite his catching of Sheth), Gonz could also be pushed given his posting habits. So I am going to go out on limb here and say that one of Me or Jitsu will be dead in the next five minutes. I think you two have good points here. The scums are probably thinking they will be able to convince the other townies that I am the scum, due to my bad filter earlygame. If there is a medic, I don't think he should claim. If there is a DT, I don't think he should claim either, unless they have at least 1 new mafia. For all we know, we could have one of them, none of them, or both of them (blues). :/ | ||
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On January 10 2012 10:23 Probulous wrote: I think Jitsu was on to something here. He was adamant that Cats was scum and had changed his position on Blurry. If we assume he was sure Cats was scum and believed Blurry is town that leaves one scum in the following list
Here is what he had to say about Xeris and Gretorp A solid null read and his thoughts on Bkrow amounted to Hardly suspicion. So what does this mean? It means taking a good look at Gonz and Cats. WIFOM alert, which is more likely? Scum knew I was iffy about Cats and that Jitsu would be the one pushing his case, so they shot him. Or Jitsu had correctly noticed in Gonz's filter and scum quickly shot him to stop suspicion of Gonz? Or We have no fucking clue and this is a waste of time? Bk, you are in that list and have at least been posting so, what do you make of this? Do you think it could be possible that BOTH statements would be true? As in the last two scum would be Cats & Gonzaw? I haven't read through Gonzaw's filter yet, but I will check it and post my opinion in the morning. (3:30 AM, gonna sleep now.) | ||
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On January 10 2012 10:33 Probulous wrote: I do, hence " It means taking a good look at Gonz and Cats. " But either way we have to decide on a single lynch, which for me is deciding between these two scenarios. On January 10 2012 10:54 Probulous wrote: + Show Spoiler + On January 10 2012 10:19 Paperscraps wrote: Blurry doesn't agree to vote up Sheth until you ask him if he will. All his posts previous to that have no read on Sheth or say he he may be slightly town. I guess you are right that it is stupid to jump from Cats to Sheth, but you, one of the best readers in this game, think he is town now. Maybe that is what he wanted to happen. I still think he is scummy. Yes, Blurry votes when I ask him to, with no hesitation at all. He could have simply stuck with his read that Cats was scum until it became obvious Sheth was being lynched. I don't think he is clearly town, just more town than Cats. It is possible that he is mafia but if so that is one hell of a bus. If I recall correctly he was the second person to vote for Sheth. Remember I had pushed Cephiro's case day 1 and failed, why would he assume I would succeed day 2? As mafia, it would have been a much safer play to just wait it out. See if the wagon starts to pick gain even a single vote and then jump. In addition to all this he was one of a handful of people who pointed out Sheth's mistakes in the very early game. Why do this if you are mafia? He plan has been to lurk, calling out your buddies is not lurking. Sure he didn't push the case hard but he definitely made one. We have very little to work on with Blurry but what we have seems more likely to be town than mafia. Either he is one hell of a mafia player, subtly bussing his team mate to gain town credit despite lurking, or he is simply a town lurker. See above. Given Jitsu's suspicions I would place Cats as scum. It fits with his back and forth with Sheth. Sheth called him out on a simple mistake (wishy-washy)and instead of changing his play like a townie would, he kept going. Sheth than backed off when he realised he was casting geniune suspicion on his team-mate. He only voted for Sheth after Sheth told him to and has been all round terrible. His "leaving" post caused confusion and he claims it was a gambit. In general he has been nuisance to town so I would not be sad to see him leave. On January 10 2012 12:26 Probulous wrote: @Blurry Thanks for your mildly amusing expose on Cats. Whilst it doesn't add anything new it is a nice summary of Cats wishy-washy play. However, sheeping is NOT a point in your favour. Don't do it. You can start by giving me your case on who the third mafia is. Assume Cats is scum, who is his last buddy and why. On January 10 2012 13:07 Probulous wrote: @BK, can you please respond to this. I would also like your thoughts on who the third mafia is, assuming Cats flips scum. Your thoughts on Gonz would be welcome too, try and ignore what I have written about him. Thanks! On January 10 2012 13:50 Probulous wrote: That is why I say your play has improved. Your gambit was terrible and created all sorts of mayhem, I hate it when people use passive aggressive stuff to gain emotional leverage. So yeah, no problem seeing you lynched. It is not meant as a personal thing, play better next time. I would happy to have another game with you. Anyway, are we the only one's reading the thread? On January 10 2012 15:41 Probulous wrote: Cats, you confuse me, so how about a deal? I will keep my position open on your alignment if you give me a thorough case on why I should vote for Blurry over you. The others seem pretty happy lynching you, which bothers me. This wagon is a little too easy to get going. Whether that is because your mafia brethren have given up on you or because you are town, is hard to say. Convince me. In particular, look at my reasons for thinking Blurry is town and poke holes in it. I want people to tear my analysis apart, right now the rest of the town seem content to just accept stuff that is well formatted. You will go a long way to redeeming yourself in my eyes if you can do that for me. I will try my best to read your case without bias, however if you are going to get this town to vote with you it will need to write a convincing case. Blurry hasn't done himself any favours so it should be a fair fight. Show me what you got! I understand being open to every possibility, but WHAT THE HELL Probu? This is a very surprising change from you this quickly. I do agree that he has picked up on his play, but enough to be your new bestest buddy? I am not even going to be wtf at Cats, I'm going to look WTF at you. You ask him to provide a case on Blurry and/or question your analysis. He does NEITHER. Instead he makes a case against da Lurker. How hard is that? I'll give that it's the best thing he's TRIED so far, but you are giving up on him way too easily not providing enough reasoning. Or is there some reason why you are very sure that Sheth could have set him up? On January 11 2012 05:23 CatsnHats wrote: Probulous you probably weren't expecting this, but I'm about to change up my read. The more I read Blurry's thread, and I've read through it multiple times now, the more I think he is just a lurker newb not sure how to contribute. Even when he sheeped against me so hard recently, he admitted that he was doing it immediately. He was the 2nd person to vote for Sheth (and he had a surprisingly good read on him for posting so little). And the WIFOM posts I called him out on earlier make more sense in light of the fact that he says he has been using his gut alot since he feels his analysis isn't up to par. Your gut is the only way to make a decision about a WIFOM situation. I feel like I can read newb play, being that I was/still am one, and Blurry definitely strikes me as a lurker newb town now. Thats being said, he still needs to post more. All of this reading wasn't in vain, because after perusing through filters I found a different target. Paperscraps: Being a Replacement Doesn't Make You Innocent ![[image loading]](http://ecx.images-amazon.com/images/I/51Pp9Bilr1L._SL500_AA300_.jpg) A replacement for Gretorp, Paperscraps wasn't done any favors by having a terrible predecessor. Gretorp was a shady, shady player, drawing the suspicions of everyone despite having a small number of posts. Tunkeg the night killed townie called out Gretorp for lurking and responded with this: + Show Spoiler + What is this other than OMGUS and an attempt to confuse the town? A very shitty move for a townie to make. After being pressured on this ridiculous post, Gretorp responds: On January 05 2012 03:20 Gretorp wrote: haha aws just kidding with the post but I will definitely once I analyze more ;-) In other words, "LOL jk guys if I promise to make reads will you stop pressuring me?" On January 05 2012 07:36 Gretorp wrote: cephiro, why are you trying to create outlandish narratives to make a decisive choice? You aren't' leaving much range for people to be townie. so interesting! :-) On January 05 2012 12:08 Gretorp wrote: I work for most of the day and this goes pretty fast while I do a lot of projects for NASL. That being said, I want to know how many people actually believe this knowing that assumption. And I'm assuming people are thinking that i have as much time as them, hence I'm interested if you change your position based on activity. On January 05 2012 12:09 Gretorp wrote: And i will be doing a huge post otnight most likely just got to get caught up since it grew a lot These are Gretorp's last 3 posts. Post #1 is an attempt to put pressure on someone else. Post #2 is an attempt to make an excuse to relieve the pressure on himself. And Post #3 is an attempt to make a promise to relieve the pressure on himself. And then poof, he was gone. This reads really scummy to me. Come on ._. These 5 posts have been analysed all over, and now days later you are giving your opinion on them? I called you out for the fact that you had asked Gretorp to post, but then dropped it. Then you tried to pretend you hadn't forgot about it. And now you think it's scummy that he promised but dropped it? He got replaced for a reason. Why can't you be consistent?!?! I think you've been a dog in a leash for others this whole game. First Probu, then Sheth, now Probu... On January 11 2012 05:23 CatsnHats wrote: Enter Paperscraps. Here's his first post. [spoiler] Much better than Gretorp, but that isn't saying much. His reads are pretty interesting though. He picks Xeris, a bigger lurker than Gretorp, and Blurry, a player already under an eye of scrutiny. This is an easy thing to do. And he doesn't give any reasoning for his picks. Sheeping/ghosing, call it what you will. It definitely isn't original though. Next post. Blurry stays scum. Xeris changes to null (probably because he's caught up with everyone's opinion Xeris by now), and I am town. Keep this in mind. He also posts the 3 clearest town reads as his own. Nothing original. When Probulous questions him on his reads, Paper agrees and changes his mind about me, claiming he will re-read my filter. Xeris is also off his radar completely. Most interesting however is the fact that he sticks to his case that Blurry is scummy. Paper claims that: "Blurry doesn't agree to vote up Sheth until you ask him if he will. All his posts previous to that have no read on Sheth or say he he may be slightly town. I guess you are right that it is stupid to jump from Cats to Sheth, but you, one of the best readers in this game, think he is town now. Maybe that is what he wanted to happen. I still think he is scummy." Blurry acutally did post analysis on Sheth. Even though it was scant, it was correct, and he was the only one up to that point other than Prob to question Sheth. Paper, as scum, knows that Blurry is town, so he's neglecting facts to cast a shadow on a suspected player. Paperscraps then busses Jitsu, using his death during N2 as evidence for Jitsu being correct about me being scum. This is sheeping against the most suspected townie. Paperscraps next two posts are further sheeping of Jitsu's analysis of me. There is no reason to quote them, they are one-liners and are easy to find on his small filter. With my new opinion that Blurry is town, I think Paperscraps is scum sheeping against the two questioned townies, me and Blurry. Because of all of this reasoning above: ##Unvote: Blurry ##Vote: Paperscraps I look forward to your response Paperscraps. And at this point I think Xeris/Kronhjort is going to get mod-killed, and if he flips blue/green, I will be PISSED. I approve you for making the continuing the case on Paperscraps, looks better than what you started on with Gretorp. What I don't like however is that you are totally skipping on some things that I've done, I'm not sure if you just haven't noticed or are you leaving it out on purpose to make me look worse. I hope it's the first. On January 11 2012 07:37 Probulous wrote: Fair point. So which one? Given that Cats is actively participating and providing analysis I am happy to leave him today. Even if we assume he is mafia (I'm not sure) there is someone else and I agree that it he is either Gretorp/Paperscraps or Xeris/kronhjort. Okay, let's assume that Cats is not mafia. Are you that certain on yourself that you will find the rest of the mafia today? If we mislynch today, and the mafia gets a night-kill through, we're in MYLO tomorrow, assuming they will get the N4 night-kill through also. I don't like how easily you are happy to leave him today just because he actively participates and ... provides analysis to some extent I guess. AND STILL HE KEEPS CHANGING HIS GODDAMN MIND ALL THE TIME, HOW IS THAT HELPING US? Another reason why I don't like the idea of lynching someone else unless we are suddenly really sure: Cats has already claimed that he is not a blue. If there are blues in the game, it is possible that we hit a blue if we mislynch. IF Cats actually happens to be a townie, we at least haven't hit a possible blue. On January 10 2012 10:23 Probulous wrote: Scum knew I was iffy about Cats and that Jitsu would be the one pushing his case, so they shot him. Or Jitsu had correctly noticed in Gonz's filter and scum quickly shot him to stop suspicion of Gonz? Or We have no fucking clue and this is a waste of time? Remember what you said earlier. The first bolded is just as likely as the latter, but somehow you are suddenly very certain it's the last choice. You don't even seem to have checked up on Gonz. (I admit, I haven't posted anything on him yet either since I'm still re-reading his filter, trying to make sure I don't miss anything.) It's most likely that Gonz is town, but it doesn't hurt to double-check at this point does it? On January 11 2012 08:00 CatsnHats wrote: Thanks Prob. And that is a really hard question. I wouldn't be surprised when Xeris/Kronhjort gets mod-killed if he flips red. But that is just wishful thinking because there really isn't any info to go on for him/them. AnxiousHippo's play was suspicious but bkrow has played much much better. That leaves Cephiro, Gonzaw, and Blurry (you and I are town). I'd say the 3rd mafia is between Cephiro, Xeris/Krohnjort, and Gonzaw. Hopefully it's Xeris and we can win this game in one more day!!! Just one question. Why have you been taking Probulous for granted this whole game? As it stands now, I would still like to see Cats lynched, unless someone provides me with a convincing case against someone else, or that I find something even more scummier than Cats myself. Call me out for still pushing for him if you want, but I've been doing it since N1 started. I think you've let him off too easily. I am open for the possibility I am wrong in Cats's case though, but at the moment I am finding it extremely unlikely, so until someone else provides me a better target: ##Vote: CatsnHats | ||
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On January 11 2012 13:04 CatsnHats wrote: @Cephiro I included Gretorp in my analysis of Paperscraps because they are the same person. I would be remiss to leave out my opinion on Gretorp and just analyze Paperscraps, that would just be throwing away half of the available information we have on him/them. What are the things that you mentioned you did? Have you already analyzed Paperscraps? If so I missed it and apologize for that. Can you requote it to me? Also, you say Prob asked for my case on Blurry and that I didn't write it. But I did, it's at the top of my post on Paperscraps. I came up with the same conclusion that Prob did about Blurry (town for now), but with separate analysis from him. I've been taking Prob for granted up to an extent, but remember I did ask the town if we were following him too blindly. I have an overwhelming gut feeling that Prob is town. With the sheer amount of posting he done (like 8 of the 36 pages), he is either a really good town or the most ballsy scum ever. I think it's the former. Yeah, I understand that you wanted to analyze them both to keep the case whole. It may be just me since I've gone through Gretorp's posts enough times to find nothing new that I just started thinking why do you even need to bring them up again, but to keep your case full and to keep your analysis as convincing as possible, I see your point. If you didn't even try there it would look more sheepish. "Blurry acutally did post analysis on Sheth. Even though it was scant, it was correct, and he was the only one up to that point other than Prob to question Sheth. Paper, as scum, knows that Blurry is town, so he's neglecting facts to cast a shadow on a suspected player." This, I think it's quite obvious that I have questioned Sheth.... And there was another line too but I can't seem to find it. I haven't provided my thoughts on Paperscraps, but I do have an opinion about him. I will probably post them slightly later, I want to see a few more reactions of him. If that doesn't happen, I'll pressure him and force him to respond. I know that you came up into the same conclusion as Prob, but I was kind of hoping since you made an analysis on Paperscraps too, that you would have analysed Blurry a bit more in-depth post-by-post if you felt that he was town. I slightly got the feeling that you took up someone else just to confuse everyone and get attention further somewhere again. I agree with you that Prob is town, at least for now, but I just want to make sure that everyone doesn't take that for granted. In the case he would be mafia, he would've had almost all of us like a dog in his leash, easily getting close to winning the game alone. On January 11 2012 13:05 Probulous wrote: He he, thanks Ceph. Ok, time to come clean. I know my play over the last day or so has been, how shall I say this, bad! My problem is that I would feel really bad for Cats if he was town because unlike others he has actually tried this game. Plus he was a little upset at me calling him terrible. I pushed my case day 1 and was horribly wrong, but then again so was everyone else. Day 2 I push my cased again, really hard and was right, but no-one was really offering counter arguments (except Jistu). I lost confidence today in my scum hunting abilities and wanted some contributions from others that I could read. I am still in two minds about Cats, I can't tell if he is just really bad town. If I can't make up my mind about Cats, that means the only option I have to find scum is to look elsewhere. Maybe it was a stupid plan, it was certainly not the most logical, but I felt I owed Cats something in return for his obvious commitment to this game. Finally when I took a step back I realised the reason we have been targeting Cats is because he has been active. He has been constantly changing his mind and his interactions with Sheth make him look really bad. Like I have said before there is plenty of evidence for him being scum. That very point illustrates why I am concerned about his lynch. The others have got away with posting nothing. If scum avoids the noose because a new townie posts a lot of stuff that looks scummy, I will feel real bad. He is clearly serious about playing. His posting is improving, the purpose of this game is help newbies get better. I am not saying I won't lynch Cats, I am just trying to look elsewhere. Okay, I understand what you mean in your first paragraph. This is certainly a very mind-intensive game and it's really hard to not get too emotional in this. You should've just known how I felt the first day after your pressure, but I'll have to thank you for that. If it wasn't for that, I would've probably continued to play much more wishy-washily. Your case made me understand how hard it is to be under pressure, and after all the effort I spent to defend myself as townie, I knew that pressure if something would make the scum do mistakes. So that's why my play stepped up quite a bit (at least in my opinion it has). I do agree it is a good idea to check into others though, even if we would end up lynching Cats today. Since we still need to find the third scum, and in the case that Cats is town, we have to find two scum. So obviously there's someone slipping under our radar for the moment. Let's make sure that won't last for long. I hope I didn't come out as too strict, I definitely understand your points, but this is a game which I want to win. And we're like halfway done. Just keep up the concentration now and we will make it till the end, lynching the rest of the scum. | ||
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On January 11 2012 13:48 Probulous wrote: I'll preface this with "I know this is a stupid idea but" I kind of want to lynch kronhjort just to get rid of that stupid lurking role. It is really fucking over town now. I have a scum read on Xeris which cannot be corroborated because kronhjort doesn't post. I mean the reasons we have for Cats could describe Xeris as well. His posting never took a stand on anything and he had some sort of connection with Sheth. I am almost certain that either Xeris/kronhjort or Gretorp/Paperscraps is mafia and I can't tell because one of them has been inactive for most of the game. Ceph, your game has picked up dramatically and if you can't see that Cats' is doing similar things, I am disappointed. Just look at his rebuttal of Paperscraps' case. Gonz is almost certainly town although he cannon-ball style posting makes it hard to get any real information from him. Blurry is useless but doesn't seem like scum to me. In short my brain is hurting and I don't feel like I am getting any closer to making a decision. I know it's fucking over the town now, but don't forget he will get modkilled today for sure. Most likely at the same time as the lynch. (If we get one that is, we need 5/8 (basically 5/7 because Kronhjort/Xeris is totally out)) So I don't think we should waste a lynch on him, since if he is red, he will flip that in the modkill. You are right that Cats is picking up his game even though not in the same pace and in a different way. And I agree with you on Gonz. Not that sure about Blurry. On January 11 2012 14:00 Paperscraps wrote: If worst comes to worst and we can't get a majority on Cats, then I wouldn't be against lynching Xeris(Kron). If you are sure that Xeris or I are mafia, then I am sure that it is him. This would help my case towards being town and we would be one less inactive.Lynching Cats or Xeris is win-win for me. The same for you, no point in killing Xeris since he will be modkilled at lynch, I am quite sure. Is there anyone else than Cats you would vote for today? I want to see all the possibilities for today's lynch. @ Cats: Give me a list of the persons you are willing to vote for today. (Based on your current opinion.) | ||
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WHY ARE YOU GUYS EVEN THINKING ABOUT LYNCHING XERIS WHEN HE IS GOING TO BE MODKILLED? If he shows up before lynch time, then we can check into that again. | ||
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And it's only 1h 15min -ish till lynch. Well this certainly doesn't make stuff any easier. I'll have to get back and re-read your filter, I don't really know what to think of that claim... | ||
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On January 04 2012 11:18 Blurry wrote: The thing to watch for initially is whether or not a role blocker reveals himself. I doubt a role blocker would do anything so early however as they have no idea who to target and successfully cause some harm. I would however advise against strongly pushing for a lynch without any concrete evidence or based solely off of speculation as with low killing power, lynching someone who is innocent would cause much more damage then simply not lynching at all. On January 04 2012 11:40 Blurry wrote: Not directly to everyone but lets say player A is a detective. Player A gets role blocked one night and now knows which of the setups is present. This may not be shared with the entire town but is useful information for the specific player to have. On January 05 2012 08:51 Blurry wrote: 10: Me I haven't contributed much other than the Roleblocker thing but I will stand by that. If someone gets role blocked they should immediately say it. The more information the better, and it would be risky for a mafia to claim being role blocked if it gets revealed that there really isn't he is automatically implicated. So guys, if you get role blocked: make sure you tell us. On January 05 2012 22:43 Blurry wrote: 2: Probulous is the obvious choice as he has posted the most solid analysis thus far. On January 06 2012 00:53 Blurry wrote: Other than that, I'm sorry I couldn't contribute more this first day as I am still new to this and am not sure what to look for in terms of reading players but by going over players posts I am getting a good idea and I'm sure my analysis quality will steadily improve over the course of the game. I am trying to find breadcrumbs backing up to your claim of medic. You seem to talk a lot about roleblocking which would make sense if you were the medic. If someone was roleblocked, and they told it, you would also know there is a DT in this game then. That last message looks like you are excusing the fact that you are "hiding", basically not contributing much, just carefully poking into conversations when you can, trying to confirm yourself as townie but not wake up too much attention. I think that at least slightly speaks for your claim. On January 07 2012 17:19 Blurry wrote: I've been trying to figure out why someone would target Tunkeg rather than someone like Probulous (posted the most analysis and was one of the most assertive players thus far). I think this could potentially tell us certain things. Probulous posted his reads on all the players in the game categorizing them by who he thought was town/neutral/mafia. While this does not make him seem any more scummy. My instinct on this is that a player who is mafia is categorized by him as being town and this cover would be useful to the mafia in some way. My other thought is that Tunkeg was pressuring someone that was mafia in a way that made him the biggest threat. He was pressuring Gonzaw and Cephiro and also did a little bit on Sheth. Since Cephiro was already cast under so much suspicion by Probulous I infer that there is a high chance that either Gonzaw or Sheth, or both are scum and am going to re-read their posts thoroughly. My initial instinct is that Sheth is the more likely candidate as he has literally posted zero analysis and has simply pressured or challenged peoples points rather than helping us weed out scum. This post of yours semt so out of picture, but if you are actually the medic then it makes sense. You would have tried to protect Probu N1, thinking he would be the main target considering he was the most pro-town read by many at that point, and he was providing good analysis. So when your protection ended up not blocking a hit, this kind of thinking is what a medic would start to consider indeed. Hard to say. :/ There seems to be small points pointing toward your favour, but it could have been intentional play since the start to fake-claim later. Under the assumption you are the medic, did you even consider protecting anyone else on N2 seeing that the N1 protection wasn't on spot? I do see the point in protecting Probu since he has been one of the most (if not the most) active seemingly pro-town players thus far. | ||
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On January 12 2012 08:56 Blurry wrote: ##Unvote: CatnHats Who do you think is the best lynch target for today? Also, your reasoning for the current unvote? | ||
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On January 12 2012 09:15 CatsnHats wrote: You role claimed after you were pressured by one person? OMG why?! Cephiro makes alot of good points towards you actually being a medic, and I'm about 85% sure you are. Well that leaves me and Paperscraps up for vote in 45 minutes. I would like to think I have done enough to redeem myself to live another day (I don't think I will be targeted in the night because of all of this new info). I think we should vote Paperscraps. Do you agree Blurry? bkrow? Probulous? Cephiro? Gonzaw? I'm having a really hard time deciding whether I should vote for you or Paperscraps, since you two are the only ones likely to get lynched today. You do understand that if we lynch Paperscraps, and he flips green, and you don't die during the night, you are pretty much lynched on D4 no matter what? Are you that sure on Paperscraps being scum? I'll have to re-read the filters of the both of you. | ||
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If he flips green and Cats is alive in the morning.... I'll vote for him and won't change my vote no matter what. I do this only because you've picked up your play and you finally stand by your case. I hope I am doing right in trusting you. | ||
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##Unvote Paperscraps | ||
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On January 12 2012 09:45 GreYMisT wrote: Vote Count! CatsnHats (2): Paperscraps, Cephiro Blurry (2): Gonzaw, Probulous Paperscraps (2): CatsnHats, Bkrow This is not the case, my vote is not placed on anyone currently. Double check your votecounts Grey! | ||
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Some of Blurry's posts genuinely point toward the fact that he would be the medic, but he couldn't have claimed at a worse time, look at all this chaos and mess! Which makes me doubt. I'll vote in just a minute or two, I need to think x.x | ||
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##Vote Blurry If he flips Blue, I am so going to check onto Prob and Gonzaw. Or whoever is alive in the morning. | ||
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What is Xeris/Kronhjort's situation? | ||
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If ever, everyone should step up their play now. Read through everyone. EVERYONE. MULTIPLE TIMES. WE CAN NOT AFFORD A MISTAKE. | ||
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On January 12 2012 10:13 CatsnHats wrote: Probulous I think I know why you did what you did. I still think you are town. Care to explain to me too? I'm missing something here or then you both look quite bad in my eyes. | ||
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On January 12 2012 10:36 Probulous wrote: It wasn't a good idea because Blurry actually was a medic. Mafia screwed us over from the start and I overthought things. I agree with Cats on Paperscraps. He gave up and then Gonz comes roaring in with his case on Blurry. The fact that Jitsu was suspicious about Gonz also makes Gonz look bad. Blurry really screwed us by claiming at the most retarded time. The way I see it, if Cats is town then the mafia are Gonz and Paperscraps. I am going to look into Gonz' s filter and do the same thing he did to Blurry. See who has been talking to and why. Who had he avoided and why did he tunnel him so early. It is not like other people's play was much better. Sounds reasonable. I need to sleep now though, I'll provide my thoughts when I'm back. | ||
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Probu accusing Gonzaw with a huge post and vice versa. (Even though Gonzaw is also pointing at Paperscraps.) This certainly isn't making my analysis any easier... but whatever happens during the night should tell quite a lot. | ||
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On January 13 2012 09:15 Probulous wrote: @Gonz, I don't think BK is mafia, simple as that. I don't have time to write up a full analysis. Why waste time on someone who I am pretty sure is town? Here is my issue people. I don't believe Cats is scum and neither is BK. I am not scum either. That means two scum in either Gonzaw, Paperscraps or Cephiro. How do I choose between Gonz and Cephiro? Gonz has been aggressive and forthright. He has pointed out issues with people's play however the only case he really pushed was Blurry's. Cephiro started badly but nailed Sheth. Since then he has been active and provided some pretty good cases. His finding of Blurry's breadcrumbs being one example. Gonz attitude is disruptive to town and has been since he went after Tunk. He reaction to Jitsu's comments was of useless. Of course you are going to be upset but as I pointed out that doesn't help town. Yet he continues to be be disruptive. His case presented today is alright. Gonz if you think I am scum come out and say it, posting a case like that makes me look bad but allows you to back out. The fact is at this point in time you have to make assumptions on who is town because otherwise scum win. We can't have everybody suspicious of everybody, that is fertile ground for a miss-lynch. Yes re-read people's filters but take a stand on who you think is scum or town. Ceph, where you at? On January 13 2012 09:20 Probulous wrote: Ceph, work backwards. Who do you think is town? A crucial point is Cats, do you think a Cats, Paperscraps team is likely? Then once you have that, it comes down to making a decision on who you think is the scummiest of the remainder. I still think you could be scum. You didn't exactly nail anyone to the wall yesterday and haven't presented your thoughts yet. The only thing really going in my favour is that I have been very open with you guys. I pushed Sheth's lynch and have been very open with my reads. I was the first to really go after anyone and I have changed my reads when new info comes to light. I'll make a short reply for now: My strongest townread at the moment is bkrow. That leaves Probu/Gonzaw/Paper/Cats as for the people to pick the 2 scum out of. I am fairly sure that 1 scum is in the pair of Cats / Paper, and the other is either Probu or Gonzaw. What happens during the night will tell a lot, at the moment I am suspecting that either Probu or Gonzaw is going to get killed tonight, with me or bkrow being the next in line after that. One point that I find interesting is that Cats and Probu have had a lot of discussion between them, whereas Paper and Gonzaw have been playing much more individually. Is it a tell of something? Maybe. It could be or it could not be. On the other hand, two interesting possibilities would be Cats + Paper or Probu + Gonzaw. Since these are the pairs that have been blaming each other lately, it could be a mafia plan of pressuring each other, and once the other is lynched, the other one would likely gain town-cred. | ||
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On January 13 2012 09:20 Probulous wrote: You didn't exactly nail anyone to the wall yesterday and haven't presented your thoughts yet. EBWOP: This is true, but I have my reasons for not doing that. And in all honesty, yesterday was really confusing. You can't expect me to nail someone to the wall every day. I did pressure you and Cats though, for a reason. The way you pushed for Blurry's lynch after Gonzaw's post didn't exactly go that well did it? Unless it's what you wanted... | ||
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On January 13 2012 09:40 Probulous wrote: "What happens during the night will tell a lot, at the moment I am suspecting that either Probu or Gonzaw is going to get killed tonight, with me or bkrow being the next in line after that." Why? See I don't understand this. If we are scummy as hell then surely it makes sense for us to be kept alive? That way one of us can be up for the lynch tomorrow. I would be more worried about yourself or BK (probably BK most of all). Think of it from a mafia point of view, confusion is what leads to a miss-lynch. What shot puts town in the biggest state of chaos? Well one where we gain no information, hence BK stay indoors. You have a point there, but have you thought of the possibility that mafia could also shoot a person to frame someone as well? Consider a situation like this: The 2 remaining scum would actually be in bkrow/Cats/Paperscraps. They see two townies (You and Gonzaw) fighting against each other, and they decide to kill the one to make the other look worse. This would be an effective way of working towards a townie lynch on D4, which would win the game for the scum. On January 13 2012 09:47 Probulous wrote: Yeah I did bad but at least I took a stance. If I get lynched for that, so be it. As you say I had my reasons. I was confused just like everyone else but I went with what made sense to me. I was wrong but that ok, I'm allowed to be wrong. Being wrong means I stood up for what I felt was the right thing to do, unlike others who just sheep. You did really well in the short time we had. I stupidly dismissed your breadcrumb evidence and that is why you are on my town list. I said I was playing badly yesterday and it was clearly true. Blurry did us no favours by claiming when he did but I made the situation worse. It's alright though, we will lynch scum today and then finish them off tomorrow. You are right that Blurry didn't play the medic claim very well. If you are town, I certainly hope you survive the night. In my opinion you've provided more useful content than Gonzaw. Also... I just realized that we three are the only ones posting. Where is everyone else? | ||
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On January 13 2012 09:56 CatsnHats wrote: I don't really know what to say right now... I just waiting for the night post. I have a lot to write, I'm just not posting it right now for timing reasons. I will say I think Gonzaw and Paperscraps are mafia (in case I get killed in a little bit). I'm more confident in Gonzaw than Paperscraps. Nice timing, just as I was wondering where everyone else is.... What makes you more confident in believing Gonzaw is mafia than Paperscraps? (I have a valid reason to ask this from you) | ||
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What I don't like is that you seem to be blindly trusting Cats. If he is scum, he has been playing pretty damn brilliantly, not being lynched even after all the suspicions on him multiple times. If he is town, then I can agree that he has definitely improved. We'll see what D4 brings us... | ||
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On January 13 2012 10:13 Probulous wrote: Ceph, compare my change of heart with you to Cats. I made a habit on constantly re-evaluating, it screwed me over with the Blurry thing but it certainly helped with Cats. Comparing Cats, Paperscraps, Blurry and Hippo and they look very similar. Obviously there is a scum in there somewhere but Cats did enough to redeem himself in my eyes. So if he scum, then well played. The only thing why I'm wondering is that you are so sure on your read on Cats even without investigating him that you are leaving him out of the list of possible scum. I know I'm town, so if you are right, that would leave Paperscraps & Gonzaw. Which brings up a few interesting points.. I can see that being possible. However I'm not letting anyone off the hook tomorrow if I survive. (Except bkrow if you die tonight) On January 13 2012 10:20 Probulous wrote: @ Ceph, what were your reasons? You mean for not nailing anyone against the wall yesterday? Quite simple. I was planning on pressuring Cats even further before the lynch, since I was (and I am still thinking), that he is getting off the hook way too easily, when he hasn't even defended himself against my original case. He even admit he can't. On January 08 2012 11:23 CatsnHats wrote: His analysis was the reason I made the martyr post. There was no real way for me to defend my play up to the point, and seeing it written up that way I knew I was distracting from catching scum. I just can't stop thinking that Cats is not scum. He approved of my play earlier, and was talking about how I am so pro-town. But once he realized that doesn't get points with me, he moved on to you. And I think that is the only reason he is still alive. For managing to convince you. Unfortunately all the drama with Blurry's poorly timed roleclaim messed up that totally. | ||
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On January 13 2012 10:31 Probulous wrote: Thanks guys! Good luck! Well played. If we win this game for town, you have certainly played a huge role in it. Thanks! | ||
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On January 13 2012 10:42 CatsnHats wrote: EBWOP: I don't really think you are scum, Cephiro. You have to be included because you weren't confirmed by Prob, but you were the reason he checked Sheth, so you're town in my eyes. Lynch Gonzaw, then Paperscraps and we win! But you weren't confirmed by Prob either any more than me. (I consider confirmed by Prob only the people that he checked) I'm still not sold on that you would be a townie. Could you provide YOUR cases on Gonzaw and Paperscraps, and include that why do you think the other is a bigger threat? I will be leaving in a few minutes myself, but when I come back, I'm going to post a lot. A LOT. (And it's not going to be useless fluff.) | ||
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No wait.... I'm still in the game! First case coming up soon. Should have all posted in < 4 hours. | ||
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CatsnHats On January 04 2012 12:34 CatsnHats wrote: Thanks CookieMaker for the link. And you're right Sheth, if I am leaning toward no lynch that would be a red flag for scum. But wouldn't emphatically being in favor of a lynch be a red flag for scum too since the odds are in favor of townie being accidentally chosen? Oh God this is gonna be so meta. Lé blah blah blah with the scumbuddy. Let's see who you have pushed for this game. Me. (Town), Blurry (Medic), Gretorp/Paperscraps (???, I am personally leaning on Town), Xeris (Town), Cookie (Town) And who have you protected? Sheth (Mafia) Hmmm.... Speaks for itself doesn't it? On January 05 2012 01:25 CatsnHats wrote: As for my flip-flopping of position, I hope you all can excuse it as my one noobie mistake. I want to clarify that this is my first game ever of mafia in any medium (forum or IRL), not just on TL. And you won't hear anymore noobie excuses from me after this. Yeah... right. You deserve the award for "Most newbie cards played in one game by scum" On January 05 2012 01:44 CatsnHats wrote: + Show Spoiler + On January 05 2012 01:13 Gretorp wrote: Tuneg, It doesnt make sense to vote me. If you have watched any NASL or seen me play mafia, you know i'm genius level but inexperienced with mafia. ALL times i've been in tl mafia, i've been a townie so my ability play townie is better than mafia. If you take my genius brain and then apply the situations, the EV for me in general is positive to the point where you dont want to vote me. But you probably know this, hence you want to kick me off because youre a mafia. SO I VOTE YOU, AND YOUR COUNTRY. #VOTE TUNEG Lurking around at the beginning, writing a paragraph of text that amounts to nothing, and then OMGUS-ing the person that prods you... not a good look Gretorp. Pretty scummy if you ask me. His first suspicion of scum. On January 05 2012 01:52 CatsnHats wrote: As for Tunkeg's aggression, right now I'm leaning towards overaggressive townie prodding for reads as opposed to a mafia running smokescreen for himself by accusing others. That being said, 3 accusations on 3 different targets in 3 subsequent posts is a little too much. If he keeps it up at that pace I'll be much more suspicious. Isn't that what you are doing pretty much the whole game... except you're not the one starting the accusations, until lategame. On January 05 2012 04:17 CatsnHats wrote: I said this earlier in regard to Gretorp's first post and I still stand by it. He backs off in his second post but adds nothing, just promising analysis later, which I look forward to seeing because right now I'm suspicious . @Sheth You would have a better read on Gretorp though since you have played with him before and invited him to this game. What do you think about his first posts? Translated: "Scumbuddy, what do you think about my suspicions? You know him irl, you know that he is scum right?" On January 05 2012 08:19 CatsnHats wrote: God you all type so fast. By the time I compose a post 5 more have popped up, including posts by AH and CM who were starting to worry me with their inactivity. The last of the lurkers have not posted. The day started about 22 hours ago and Blurry has said nothing. That certainly doesn't bode well for him. You want accusations, here are my slight scum reads. RE: Xeris Inactive early and his only posted content centers on not lynching after much discussion has already taken place amongst the town about why that is a bad idea. That would seem to be a play for a mafia freekill on N1. RE: CookieMaker Even with recent read on Ceph, which I agree with. I cannot let you off the hook yet for shady opening play. The poem, Odin/Thor references, fluff posts, "jabbing and dodging" who you accused of jabbing and dodging, etc. All of this leans towards scum I think. RE: Gretorp He is the scummiest player so far. From the joke in post one to the back down in post two to this new third post, every response is just too cute and offers nothing in the way of analysis or contribution. Two to three sentence posts of no substance seem very suspicious. My vote right now would be for Gretorp, but I'm not going to make it official cause I still want to hear more from the three I listed here and Blurry. I hope this is enough for you Jitsu. As I posted in my N1 case on Cats, blaming 2 lurkers and 1 poorly playing townie is quite easy to do. Especially when you're mafia and want them dead. Notice how he agrees on CookieMaker's pro-town post on me. (One bigger analysis on me, where Cookie read me as very pro-town, spoilered below: + Show Spoiler + On January 05 2012 07:59 CookieMaker wrote: My turn. This is my first big read. If you disagree with any of it, please raise the issue. Here are my "Strongest" town reads. Each section will have a brief summary and then reads for the player and reads against, with bolded sections of quotes being the evidence I'm presenting. This was originally going to be longer but I'm starving and heading for groceries asap so I just took the best of what I had. For this play the pro-town evidence feels significantly stronger. Cephiro: -This read is on the big assumption that he is not a highly experienced player disguising himself as a rookie. Otherwise: + Show Spoiler + Appeared nervous at the start with the majority of his math, but I'm chalking it up to newbie nerves. He then goes on to be both active and helpful (even though he may not realize it). Many of his posts seem very slightly hesitant, but my guess on that is because he's seen how these games can quickly bandwagon an innocent townie to hell and he's just slightly afraid. My gut feeling on him is by far the strongest, and if I had to pick anyone right now to be pro-town, it's him. Pro-town evidence: + Show Spoiler + On January 04 2012 10:42 Cephiro wrote: I'll have to say CookieMaker provides a few good points to start with. Even though none of us knows the exact set up, I would have to argue that we as town have a much better starting point. Considering the case that the mafia would have a role blocker, it will most likely be less useful until later game when people are starting to have better reads on each other. If the town has both the medic and detective, it is quite likely that they will be able to do something useful. (Mafia role blocker would have 9 persons to choose from, since he/she would know the 3 mafia.) That leaves a 2/9 = around 22% chance of roleblocking on the first day, since I'm quite sure there will be no roleclaims this early. On the other hand, the medic has a very small chance of blocking the first kill on N1 (1/11 * 8/9 ~ 8% chance), but the detective has a chance of as much as 27% finding scum on N1 if he doesn't die. (Which would be about 24% in total, which is still higher than the chance of mafia roleblocking.) Note: You may notice I'm into maths a lot.... Also, it might even be that the mafia has a roleblocker but the town has no power roles, which renders the mafia roleblocker useless, making the situation even worse for them. Anyway, I think that we should try to be provocative and try to raise as much discussion as possible. In my opinion we should aim to lynch someone (hopefully scum) on D1. A no-lynch would essentially give the mafia a free kill, and not necessarily get us that much more information. Also... What a lovely way to start the game... but on the other hand, I doubt even a newbie scum player would slip that early, even though it could be done on purpose to make us think even a newbie wouldn't slip such, but in fact being scum anyway? In this first post the sentence I like is bolded. Straightforward and to the point, and clearly trying to integrate what he read in other games before this started. + Show Spoiler + On January 05 2012 00:16 Cephiro wrote: Time for a D1 analysis! Obviously I'll leave myself out, but if someone wants to know more about my opinions / ask why I'm in favor of something, please go ahead, discussion is what we need at the moment. Also, my apologies if I'm wrong with someone's gender, I'll make a mean generalization and expect everyone to be a male until noted otherwise. Player List: 1.CookieMaker For now I'm leaning slightly towards town on him, even though he is quite in-favour of the no-lynch possibility. But I think that may be due to the fact that it's his first game, and he may not have read through/followed many mafia games before. So I'm thinking he's rather be safe than sorry, but hopefully he'll realize the amount of information even a possible mislynch will give us, not even mentioning the huge lead we can get if we nail a mafia on D1. His posts could have slightly more actual content, but he's trying so for now he's okay to me. 2.Liquid`Sheth Hasn't posted anything useful aside from welcoming people and pressuring CatsnHats. Sure, pressuring at this point has to be done, but deciding to pick on one person for no real reason at this point and providing no other content? Hopefully he means well and just tries to make sure CatsnHats plays pro-town regardless of being new, I mean, Sheth does have 2 previous games of TL mafia as a base of experience. But for now, I am reading something between neutral or slightly scum. I dare you to prove me your innocence, so I'll be waiting for your morning post. 3.AnxiousHippo Doesn't seem to have any idea of what he should be doing, but I guess it's understandable since it's only his second game. I am hoping to hear more from you, since you haven't posted enough content to make any kind of read on you. Neutral. 5.Tunkeg Good forewarn on not being able to answer at the start of the game. Appareantly was on the winning side in his first game. He seems like an aggressive type of person, wanting to start the accusations and pressure to get some discussion going on. Thinks that D1 lynch is a must, but backs it up with some very good points. Took the first vote playing it relatively safely, voting for a lurker who hasn't posted yet. Clearly wants something to happen, but I am for now unsure if his method will be very successful. Neutral for now, but if you keep the activity up I should be able to get either a slight-town or slight-scum read on you soon. 6.Jitsu Seems to want to actively participate, and most of his posts so far are convincing people to lynch on D1. Hasn't posted any actual content other than that though, so I will still stand on a neutral read. I am hoping to hear more content from you soon, I need to get more reads. 7.Xeris All I can say is, no content, not a good sign. Neutral. 8.Gretorp Same as above, neutral. 9.Gonzaw Answering people's questions, trying to explain some of the basic stuff that should be understood, looks good to me. I like the way he pushed to know more about how I seem to know about the game, so he seems like he isn't taking anything for granted. Also suggesting pressure voting to get things going. I have a slight town-read here. 10.Blurry Seems to be in favour of no-lynching, wanting to stay on the safe side. Hasn't talked about anything but different possibilities if a mafia roleblocker exists. Not useful. (Okay, I'll have to admit that my statistics post at start wasn't necessarily very useful either, but I've been at least trying to post other content as well.) Neutral for now, but if you won't be posting more, I would lean on slightly scum. 11.Probulous Being very active at the start, and the play seems really town-favouring. Constantly asking for opinions and explaining his reasoning. I like his opinion on lynching, definitely wanting to lynch mafia but still keeping in mind the possibility of being careful incase we don't get any reads on D1. Hopefully we will have some scum reads that we can go for so no-lynch won't be necessary. Pressuring the people that should be on according to timezone but haven't posted. I would have to say you are my strongest town-read so far, I want to hear more of your opinions when you're back. 12.CatsnHats Being a new player, it's understandable that he's a bit confused, but you really need to learn that you CAN'T TRUST anyone but yourself. Whatever you think about the situation or someone's reads, say it, don't just agree or disagree randomly. I'm kind of worried of the chance that you are a townie whom the mafia would be able to talk around easily, but I hope you'll prove me wrong. (about the convincing part.) Or you could be mafia that is pretending to be a super-newbie town on his first game... who knows. But you're neutral so far. Start posting your opinions! I'm not going to vote yet myself, but I will join the pressure voting in a few hours if Xeris and Gretorp aren't going to turn up. More of the same. He lays his cards on the table for all to see, and it's doing it for me. My gut tells me that while a mafia player might make the same post to gain trust, they wouldn't attempt to analyze as hard as he has. Rather, they would use it as more of a confusion technique and be even more wishy-washy. When Ceph isn't sure on someone, or has a weak gut feeling, he still says it, rather than trying to present two opinions and fuel a debate. Similarly, when he's sure of himself, he also is very direct in stating his point. Not only that, but he was dead-on when he said my posts thus far didn't have very much useful content. He was right, I had nothing to go on at the time and was still fishing. I have bolded sections in the above quote that reflect what I like about this. Even though his EBWOP was slightly apologetic, it had a very natural feel to me, out of genuine concern rather than fear. Maybe I'm reading too far into this, but the apology might be a gut reaction to himself having to read so much (a realization I also had as a first-time player). + Show Spoiler + On January 05 2012 07:14 Cephiro wrote: Hello again everyone! Got caught up watching a good movie, but going to catch up on mafia now: I see your point. I consider that you need to be able to trust some people to some extent in this game, and I am trying to find players which I can be fairly sure of to be townies. That does not mean I will analyze them any less though, I'm not taking anyone for granted neither am I setting anything in stone. I think that the first 24-hours of D1 in this game are quite hard to start pointing scum fingers at someone, but I assure you that whenever my scum sensor alerts, I'll let you all know. So I do get your point about finding scum directly, but I don't want to negate trying to find out whom are town. In my opinion, both is better than just the other. About Gretorp, I am certainly not liking his play so far. He has only posted twice, which of one was appareantly a joke, and the other being an explanation of the first message. The fact that he has posted but still hasn't said anything with content feels suspicious to me. What do you others think? Random Lynching is a retarded idea in my opinion, (since someone brought it up, I'll have my say in this as well.) because we still have more than a whole day on us to make reads, and since we don't have a mayor in this game, we can't use it in the way you were theorycrafting either. I still stand by what I said at start, I want us to be able to get enough reads on people to lynch a scum on day 1. Jitsu's post pretty much sums up my opinion. I don't approve Xeris's play at all so far, all he has is two posts talking about the different ways of lynching, he hasn't provided any opinions about anyone, nor asked anyone else about their reads. Not very pro-town in my opinion. If he isn't going to step up soon, I am probably going to pressure vote for either him or Gretorp. My timezone is GMT +2, so it's around 15 minutes past midnight at the time of this post. I will probably stay up for at least 2 more hours. @Jitsu: I'm actually starting to be really suspicious of him at the moment. He had a very active start, even though his content was somewhat fluffy. I've changed my opinion about him since my earlier post, partly due to many people providing good reasoning about his play so far. I am actually wondering a bit as he hasn't said anything since yesterday's start, so I'm interested to hear if he has some actual opinions or reads to give when he comes back. This recent post is another goodie IMO. Again very direct and unafraid of his position and stance on strategy, as well as attempting to offer genuine contribution. I've again bolded what he says that really ring a green bell with me. His consistency shines through. Anti-town evidence: + Show Spoiler + On January 05 2012 04:41 Cephiro wrote: Okay, I'll admit that my statistical starting post maybe wasn't the best opening post ever, but at least I tried, unlike many others... can't blame me for being excited and trying to contribute! To be honest, I don't understand your claim about me being wishy-washy at the start, when I was clearly trying to push for some points. For example: On the other hand when I read your posts, I see almost nothing useful. You're trying to pressure CatsnHats, and trying to clarify some acronyms and such on D1. You're not posting any of your reads. And now you asked CatsnHats about his opinion on Gretorp when he already posted about it... you're giving surprisingly much attention to him to start the game with in my opinion. I'm pointing my FoS at you. I'll have my eyes on you Sheth. I'm not going to accuse you of being scum yet, but I suggest that you all watch Sheth's posts carefully. You'll have to try harder than that to convince me. Really this is more town-evidence IMO, but some might say that the speed with which he flipped the accusation around makes it suspicious. I tend to think that it's just a bit of an instinctive OMGUS, otherwise he handled the pressure really well and without any trace of guilt. As well, I kinda like his read on Sheth and the way he's now using Sheth's own tactic against him :D -Slightly Bandwagon-ish: He is slightly following the bandwgon on the Xeris train, but I don't blame him at all here because I'm of the same mind. On the whole his contribution has really stuck out to me as useful (or trying to be) rather than "active filler". This is one of the few reads that I'm much more sure of. If there is a medic in this game, my recommendation would be on his protection because I think he will be one of the standards around which the town needs to rally. Gonna grab food, and compile more reads, and tonight I'm gonna hit y'all with some knowledge. Current Opinion: Very Pro-Town On January 05 2012 10:46 CatsnHats wrote: Hey Probulous. I don't know if you saw this before you posted. It was about 2 hours before you posted so it's in the time range you gave for not being able to read it yet. It includes my thoughts on CookieMaker you asked for. As for Xeris and Gretorp. I don't think not contributing at this point is an excuse for them being clean. In regards to make vote, I asked for clarification on the voting process and AnxiousHippo answered. I didn't want to be locked in because there are 23 hours left til the deadline. After I learned that I wouldn't be locked in, I voted for Gretorp to pressure him to add content. I even explained that in the post quoted below. I hope you just hadn't read these yet. Otherwise you just picked posts that supported your case and blatantly left off the one's that exonerated me. Two lines of text. That's... a lot. Spoilered below: + Show Spoiler + RE: CookieMaker Even with recent read on Ceph, which I agree with. I cannot let you off the hook yet for shady opening play. The poem, Odin/Thor references, fluff posts, "jabbing and dodging" who you accused of jabbing and dodging, etc. All of this leans towards scum I think. This screams "Hey strong townie, I am town too, please believe me, I can be your personal little helper". But in reality, behind this is a very devious scum, trying to find protection behind our DT. On January 05 2012 13:10 CatsnHats wrote: @Jitsu You have so much wrong about me I don't know where to start. I waited around 2 hours and 30 posts before I first commented. How is that lurking, especially for it being my first game? Others waited much longer and did not draw your attention. I was the second person to talk about Gretorp, and I was the first to call him out on his response to Tunkeg's prod. And how could I have changed my top 3 scum reads when that was the first time I posted them? Gretorp stayed on the list, Xeris advocated no-lynch, and CM had been very shady (as was explained in the post and echoed by others later). I kept pressing and pressing Gretorp because I stuck to my stance and he hadn't answered yet, but that is explained because he works all day for NASL. I await his response. I appreciate your concern, and like your aggression for me to explain myself. I have a town read for you, and I hope this clarifies things. This WHOLE post is just so... woah. First off: Drawing the attention to others. "I wasn't the last one to post, why are you picking on me!!??!?!" Then a blatant lie: He was the second to call out on Gretorp's response to Tunkeg, right after ME. His reasons for the 3 players: 1) Xeris advocates a no-lynch. (Short, although I'm pretty fine with this) 2) CM had been very shady (Your fantastic 2-liner analysis!) 3) Gretorp you were pressing and pressing on? Placing a vote on a lurker on the first day, and then excusing him with the fact that he works all day IRL isn't that much of a pressure imo. Also, the end is just what the hell. "I have a town read for you, and I hope this clarifies things." Translated: "I am not a threat to you, don't worry about me." On January 05 2012 14:01 CatsnHats wrote: Yeah I know I look scummy. People are holding my first two newb posts against me and it's clouding their judgement on the rest of my play. At this point in the game Cephiro is definitely more scummy than Gretorp, especially in light of Gretorp promising a long post and his being at work all day. If he follows through it would alleviate a lot of my concerns with him. That would leave CookieMaker and Xeris from my original list. They haven't done anything to be removed from it either. Prob's analysis of Cephiro is very well thought out and cited, and your follow-up is logical. But all of this talk back and forth between you too and "what happens if we lynch a green and I thought he was red, what does that make me look like to the town" talk is very circular and frankly unneeded at this point. It's just dead text to me. We should focus on who's the scummiest, not the repercussions of being wrong on your read. Be confident and we'll deal with the effects after the lynch, not before. That being said, despite your circular theoretical talk, at this point I'm confident in your analysis of Cephiro and think he is more of a threat than Gretorp. So ##unvote Gretorp ##vote Cephiro Scumbuddy blames you to make sure that anyone doesn't think you two are both Mafia. After Sheth and Probu make a case on me, that is ALL he needs to change his mind. He's like... case against Cephiro posted -> I'm convinced. I love it how Sheth even asks you "Would you be willing to join in on this little train we're starting?" Too bad your D1 plan to get one of the active townies killed failed, because I'm coming and taking you down now. On January 05 2012 14:04 CatsnHats wrote: EBWOP: I know this makes me look even more bandwaggony to you Jitsu. But I can't worry about your thoughts about me. I just need to help find scum and let my play speak for itself. Well it certainly has spoke for itself. Bandwagoning townies, protecting scummies. Is there anything more that we need to know? On January 05 2012 14:45 CatsnHats wrote: For the record, I guess it is possible that Jitsu, Sheth, and Prob are the three mafia trying to pressure me from the beginning into voting for a target of their choice. I find it highly unlikely, however, that all three of you would be so vocal and hold such a majority of the spotlight, as this would certainly be a risky play. So I feel good about the vote switch. I just wanted to get this thought out there. Random fluff filler and throwing out random accusations. "I guess you could be mafia but I don't think you are". Then what the hell is the point in posting that? To try and cause others to suspect them. On January 05 2012 15:13 CatsnHats wrote: I just getting all the possibilities out there, and I said that you all being mafia was low probability, so if anything that would be taking suspicion from you. As I have said before from the beginning, my third (albeit a distant one relative to the others) at the moment is Xeris due to his no-lynch posts, lurking, and non-responses to player questions. He has left very little material to go on, but that is my third for now. For me it's Cephiro>CM>Xeris. I could see Xeris dropping off this list though when he, Gretorp, AH, Blurry, and others post again. And now Gretorp has already dropped off the list, since Probu thinks that he is less of a threat than Xeris. "Fine, I'll just adjust my opinion accordingly." On January 06 2012 08:30 CatsnHats wrote: And to Gretorp: seriously where is your promised long analysis post/contribution? Don't think I've haven't forgotten. We're going to need everyone's contributions if we're going to rid the town of scum, so start POSTING. He does this.... right after I point out that he has totally dropped the subject. /facepalm, could you be any less obvious? On January 06 2012 08:41 CatsnHats wrote: You (Jitsu), Sheth, and Probu weren't on my scum reads, you put those in my mouth. Take those 3 away, and what do you have? Gretorp, Xeris, and Cookie. That's 3! How many mafia are there? THREE. Yep, you just randomly soft-accused them, but never said that you think they are mafia. On the other hand, you forgot to list me in that. On January 06 2012 10:02 CatsnHats wrote: @Ceph Jumping on the CatsnHats bandwagon I see. It seems like you trying to get people to spare you on D2 by shifting attention to me. You quoted me as saying "Even with recent read on Ceph, which I agree with." as evidence that I flip-flopped when I later included him on my scum reads. But you didn't quote the whole post. I said: + Show Spoiler + RE: CookieMaker Even with recent read on Ceph, which I agree with. I cannot let you off the hook yet for shady opening play. The poem, Odin/Thor references, fluff posts, "jabbing and dodging" who you accused of jabbing and dodging, etc. All of this leans towards scum I think. I've never flipped on CM, you just didn't include this to make your case. It seems alot of people have a habit of doing that. And no, you didn't fall off of my list, if you actually read Jitsu's post you aren't mentioned on it, so I didn't include you. Don't worry you're still on it. You're actually at the top of it for D2. That's not OMGUS, it's just that you are top two with CM/Tea and once he's gone you're logically next on the list. My flip from Gretorp to you was to kill the greater of two evils a the moment, since Gretorp's inactivity had left him as a harder read when compared to you. And then I switched my vote from you to Tea because it seemed we were going to be deadlocked, and killing #2 on my list and letting #1 go is much better than letting both #1 and #2 go. Me jumping on the bandwagon? Lol. Admittingly, Probu had a case on you already, but everything I posted was original and my own analysis. Unlike your play where you just jump from target to target to please others. On January 06 2012 10:14 CatsnHats wrote: First thing that pops up: Cookie thought Cephiro was very pro town. This is very interesting since a lot of people had Ceph pegged as scum before we switched to Tea/CM. I'm still reading the filters, just wanted to get this out there first. Oh they did? Why didn't I know of such. I only saw you, Probu and Sheth accusing me constantly. One mislead townie, and two scums. Way to go making me try to look worse than I do. On January 06 2012 11:32 CatsnHats wrote: Ok guys. I don't really want to do this, but I'm going to since it really is the best for the town. I think all of you should vote to lynch me on D2. I've come to realize that I am a terrible player of this game, especially as a townie (with no role I might add!). I should have found the newbie forum or got a better idea of this game before i signed up to play it. My first few posts I made before I realized the psychological and analytical implications of this game handicapped me and I've been playing the defensive ever since. After the bad start I put myself in, my goal was to make it past D1, which I did, so I'm fine with getting lynched if it's agreeable amongst everyone (I'm sure the scum will agree). All I have really done is distract you all from the real the scum with my terrible play, and that's not fair to the town. I also admit, I haven't added much in the way of original analysis because I was afraid that it would put me in even more hot water. The obviously wasn't the right play. Maybe you all can get D2 sped up if the mods allow it so anymore scumhunting time isn't wasted. This probably isn't the correct time to do it since it's N1, but for the record. ##Vote: CatsnHats For the record: in light of CM/Tea turning up green, I think it takes some heat of you Ceph. You (and the rest of the town) should spend your time looking into Xeris and Gretorp (because of questionable/contradictory posting when not lurking) and pressuring AnxiousHippo, a player who has gone unnoticed to others because of all of the accusations going around. He's made filler posts, keeps making excuses for not reading through everything, and throws out a placeholder vote for Xeris and a very bandwagon vote for CookieMaker/Tea. Quoted below: The big breakdown. I finally nailed you against the wall, and you weren't able to defend yourself. What's left for you? THE SUPER-NEWBIE CARD! Martyring and more martyring, maybe they'll believe me. Also as your "last favour" you point out at another townie. (Hippo/bkrow). In an advanced game you would have been killed right away, but in a newbie game you saw your chance to confuse enough to give you some more time. On January 07 2012 12:59 CatsnHats wrote: In regard to my martyr post, I'll admit that I felt pretty defeated when I was writing it, but then I realized that I could use your reactions as fodder for evidence and as a way of generating discussion, so I lurked and waited. I was pretty disappointed for the most part, a lot of "Don't give up for the town's sake" responses that came from the players with really town-y reads already (Prob, Gonzaw, Tunkeg), and this was meant to find scum, not confirm town. But then AnxiousHippo posted thank goodness, something I could make a read on. + Show Spoiler + On January 06 2012 16:31 AnxiousHippo wrote: @CatsNHats get your head back in the game if you're town you should be more focused on killing mafia than convincing everyone you're a dead weight. Just keep trying, your last paragraph was decent, try expanding on that. Thanks for the pep-talk, the thing is though, it's the exact same thing that Probulous wrote, just in less words. Bandwagon post to make yourself look town if you ask me. + Show Spoiler + On January 06 2012 11:40 Probulous wrote: Don't you dare throw in the towel! That is a shitty thing to do. Hell ask for a replacement if this is too hard for you. If you are town, fight for your life. I am pissed at AKCT for his apathy. You at least have been posting. Take a break and come back later with a case on someone. You realise if you throw in the towel and you are green you are severly handicapping the rest of us? You noticed that Hippo hasn't been contributing. Do what Gonz did and make people see your point of view. The argument against you is long and has substantial evidence. There isn't anything you can really do except be useful to town. I hate it when people do this. It is so passive aggressive and weak. Grow a spine and take the heat. If you get lynched, well better luck next time. But this, is aweful. And why would you compliment my last paragraph? Because it points the finger at you. If I didn't include you, would that make it better than "decent"? Or are you just complimenting it because you think I would let you off the hook? And then this: Really? After everyone else has already agreed that he needs to respond and has been pressured, you jump on the bandwagon and offer this filler BS? You're going to have to do better than that. You also say that Xeris doesn't look scummy because we have nothing to go on, but his posts are more questionable than Gretorp, a player you are bandwagon pressuring. Are you just trying to protect Xeris, a scum friend? 9 (excluding me) people left. 3 are mafia. AnxiousHippo, Blurry, Gretorp, and Xeris have all drawn suspicion for either lurking, contradicting themselves, shady behavior, etc. Do I think the whole mafia is in these 4? NO. Do I think at least one, maybe of them is? Yes. In light of recent events, AnxiousHippo has done the most to damn himself in my eyes, but we're kinda stuck on Gretorp and Xeris until they answer or get modkilled. That leaves Blurry, I'll analyze his filter and post later. Who's ProfBA? I thought you all were mistyping Prob but you kept saying it so I'm confused. @Sheth This is the definition of OMGUS from the TL Newbie Thread Cookie linked: "OMGUS: Oh my God! You suck! Voting for someone just because they are voting for you" Is this better guys? I'm really trying here. Lol.... just lol. Your clever comeback, where you were just fishing for people's reactions. And what do you come up with? Nothing. NOTHING at all. Just the worst accusations ever at Hippo. Further trying to divert attention from you. You blame Hippo for the same thing I blamed you for, ironic isn't it? And you're so happy that the townies pep-talk you, but when someone isn't the first one to do it and doesn't devote 5 lines for it, you just accuse him for bandwagoning. What the hell? Last line: "Am I looking more town already, am I safe?" On January 07 2012 17:02 CatsnHats wrote: EBWOP: And AH, whose bandwagon analysis are you working on? Your own? Nice ignoring that Probu just asked him to analyse the ones that were supposedly bandwagon voting on Cookie. On purpose? On January 08 2012 00:44 CatsnHats wrote: EBWOP: I'm going to make it more clear. I was using Prob's post to show that AH's post was very similar to Prob's, and since AH's was much later, it was bandwaggony. I don't want you misunderstand what I say again. So basically, if you're not the first one to have that opinion, you are bandwagoning. Says the king of bandwagons, who would know better? On January 08 2012 11:23 CatsnHats wrote: Cephiro really impressed me with the way he defended himself against your analysis. His statistics post people got angry at him for isn't really that big of a deal for me since it was his first post and it's his first game of forum mafia. Ceph was also the first the post a write-up on all the town, although you picked it apart later. I still think that counts for something. He called out Sheth in his defense post for Sheth's wishy washy play, and later pressured me on my terrible play up to that point. His analysis was the reason I made the martyr post. There was no real way for me to defend my play up to the point, and seeing it written up that way I knew I was distracting from catching scum. His analysis is very good, and I hope he gets back from his sports tournament soon because he's an asset to this town. Cephiro is definitely a town read for me. Sheth endeared himself in my eyes for defending my newb-play in the beginning, and even after my martyr post he still had a town read for me. I'm starting to think that's because he KNOWS I'm town though. Prob's and Jitsu's analysis has definitely cast a black cloud on the nicest guy in esports. He has ghosted on Prob's analysis of Cephiro, basically promising analysis in the morning on someone's that bothered him. Prob posts his Ceph analysis, and then Sheth's like "oh yeah we was mine too." Just seems like he was waiting for someone to post original content so he can ghost it. And the way he has handled the Xeris situation is shady as well. Sheth is our best case so far, but I'm really holding out hope (albeit a faint one) that Xeris, Gretorp, or AH will talk before the lynch. I will at least do this: ##Unvote: CatsnHats I'm not going anywhere unless the town or mafia decides it. Wouldn't you know, I managed to find all the flaws in your play. And what are you doing behind your screen at the moment you wrote this post? "Thanks Ceph, now I know how to make myself look even more town". Now you are suspecting Sheth. Because.... Prob posted an analysis on him. And the king of bandwagons is aboard. On January 08 2012 11:58 CatsnHats wrote: @Prob yeah I do think they are (Blurry too) better scum targets than Sheth. I think we are letting the terrible activity level of half this town make us point the finger at each other. @Sheth you're exactly right. I'm ghosting on Prob's analysis of you. Gonzaw ghosted on it too and has already put a placeholder vote on you. I REALLY don't like that. He says that your words in your defense could have an effect on changing his mind, but that he won't be around to see it. WHAT IS THAT? This is a really important time in this game. We really need a lynch on mafia. That doesn't sit well with me. + Show Spoiler + On January 05 2012 12:57 Liquid`Sheth wrote: Also, your crazy to not think that there is no relation between who you analyse and find scummy and whether or not you are scum. If the person we follow along with the most picks 3 town in a row, theres a solid chance hes mafia. If the person we follow kills 3 mafia in a row, theres a solid chance hes town. I don't know how you can't agree with that. @Everyone The phrase I bolded is really interesting to me. It seems like the town (including myself) has followed Probulous without much question. He has posted so much many long posts so often that we have written him off as town without thought and reanalysis. Do you think that Probulous is getting by without enough criticism? He's not a D2 lynch target by any means, but do you think that is true? This is NOT FOS, I'm just asking a question. The start is just blablabla with your scumbuddy, talking a bit to avoid suspicions. However, then comes the interesting part. Your scumbuddy provides you a nice line to make you look better, and you go on to soft-pressuring Probulous, but just "genuinely asking a question". Coincidence? No. Planned with Sheth? Yes. On January 08 2012 13:44 CatsnHats wrote: I don't feel comfortable voting for you Sheth. I think Xeris, Gretorp, AnxiousHippo, and Blurry all have had as much scummy behavior as you, just less activity. I think you are getting targeted because you have a higher quantity of posts, making it easier for you to be quoted/analyzed. My target right now would be Blurry or AnxiousHippo, mainly because they are the most likely to respond at this point. Blurry has made 11 posts overall (an amount big enough to be remembered, but not enough to be picked apart like you), 1post yesterday, which is WIFOM filler + Show Spoiler + On January 06 2012 00:53 Blurry wrote: Okay, my last post for the day: Staying on CM/Tea as I am still unsure about Cephiro. Other than that, I'm sorry I couldn't contribute more this first day as I am still new to this and am not sure what to look for in terms of reading players but by going over players posts I am getting a good idea and I'm sure my analysis quality will steadily improve over the course of the game. One thing that strikes me looking back at all this is CM voting for CatsinHats. If CM/Tea is indeed scum then I think this provides evidence towards cats not being scum as I dont think CM would have been that meta especially with the holes in his play he has already shown. This can't be assumed however so I would still be suspicious. and one post today, which was WIFOM filler. + Show Spoiler + On January 07 2012 17:19 Blurry wrote: I've been trying to figure out why someone would target Tunkeg rather than someone like Probulous (posted the most analysis and was one of the most assertive players thus far). I think this could potentially tell us certain things. Probulous posted his reads on all the players in the game categorizing them by who he thought was town/neutral/mafia. While this does not make him seem any more scummy. My instinct on this is that a player who is mafia is categorized by him as being town and this cover would be useful to the mafia in some way. My other thought is that Tunkeg was pressuring someone that was mafia in a way that made him the biggest threat. He was pressuring Gonzaw and Cephiro and also did a little bit on Sheth. Since Cephiro was already cast under so much suspicion by Probulous I infer that there is a high chance that either Gonzaw or Sheth, or both are scum and am going to re-read their posts thoroughly. My initial instinct is that Sheth is the more likely candidate as he has literally posted zero analysis and has simply pressured or challenged peoples points rather than helping us weed out scum. His big analysis post was 1-2 sentences on each player. Not enough content. Thoughts? You blame Blurry for 2 WIFOM filler posts, asking others opinions. + 1 more target, aren't you changing your mind a lot. Who do you think are even scummier than your scumbuddy? The 4 townies of course. Xeris, Gretorp, Blurry & Hippo. HAVE TO BREAK THIS ANALYSIS FOR NOW, IT'S GETTING HUGE. MORE COMING UP AS I FINISH. | ||
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Cephiro
Finland1934 Posts
CatsnHats analysis continues: On January 09 2012 05:33 CatsnHats wrote: @Sheth You aren't my best read on scum, I said the town had the best case against you because Prob had just made his long analysis post. Then you defended yourself, which I was waiting on, and because of it I'm not comfortable voting for you. I'm still convinced than when Xeris and Gretorp are killed one of them will turn red, and Hippo and Blurry have always been more questionable than you in my eyes. Honestly I would vote for myself with Jitsu and you if it meant keeping you alive, because you are obviously much better at making reads and are a bigger asset to the town than I am. Ah, how nice. You would sacrifice yourself for the Mafia Godfather. Best case in your opinion: Whatever Probu makes a long analysis post on. Sheesh >_> Also, the upper bolded I find interesting. You were waiting on Sheth's defense. Of course you knew it was coming, since you had planned it all along with him. This way you could defend Sheth with a good reason, and if worst-case scenario for you would happen, meaning that Sheth would get lynched (as he did), you could just play the newbie card again. "Sheth was so devious and tricked me, guys I'm still town, I'm just really newb." On January 09 2012 07:16 CatsnHats wrote: + Show Spoiler + On January 08 2012 22:40 Blurry wrote: Yes I would, and will. #Vote: Liquid'Sheth As to gonzaw's statement of me simply regurgitating information. For the most part that has been true but I've been going by my gut, which is not something you can post when convincing other people to take your side. I've been suspicious of Sheth from the start but don't have the analysis skills to back it up (I know that will read as scummy but bear with me) and write an informed post as to why. If I don't have the evidence to back up my feelings then there is no point in posting it. Admission of bandwaggoning. You can't claim you were suspicious of him if you didn't post anything. That statement means nothing except "I'm sheeping Prob's content." + Show Spoiler + On January 08 2012 22:41 Blurry wrote: EBWOP: ##Vote: Liquid'Sheth Wrong format. If he flips something like blue or green however I think we should seriously look into Probulous. And what is this?I have a feeling you KNOW Sheth is going to flip green, and you are using this knowledge to throw suspicion on Probulous after that happens. And as I said in my other post you've really said nothing but WIFOM filler. You're playing exactly how I think a lurking mafia would play (making posts every once and a while, not committing in analysis, apologizing for not adding content, bandwagoning, etc). It seems like we are heading for a no-lynch, but I am not voting for Sheth because I think he's town. ##Vote: Blurry The king of bandwagons blames Blurry for bandwagoning. The last post is funny, Cats manages to find a flaw in the sentence which he can use against Blurry. I think you are suspecting that he could be the medic at this point, which is why you are pushing for him. What I find interesting here is your stance that "I am not voting for Sheth because I think he's town."... What happened the day after? KEEEL BLURREZ!!!!!1111 On January 09 2012 07:19 CatsnHats wrote: Ceph you better come through on your promise. And that statement I bolded is BS. That's sheeping and you know it. And why arent't you going to vote for anyone other than me or Sheth, cause you know we're the green targets? This was hilarious when I first time read it. Blaming me for sheeping? Lmfao. You are claiming me to sheep because Probu beat me to it. Well, I beat Probu to it on D1, how about that? You're trying to make me look bad again here on purpose. You two green targets? More like the most blood-red I've seen in ages. On January 09 2012 09:58 CatsnHats wrote: FUCK. I didn't want to do it, but Sheth told me too. ##Unvote: Blurry ##Vote: Liquid`Sheth ... LOL. Of course he did. He wanted you to gain a bit more of town-cred. Why would you else vote for him if you were so sure he is town, even when you claimed that you wouldn't vote for Sheth on D2 no matter what? On January 09 2012 10:49 CatsnHats wrote: You guys think I'm mafia, especially since I didn't vote for Sheth until the end, but I'm not. That's why I said "Well fuck I'm dead." Since I'm town and we lynched mafia, I said "Nice work Probulous and Cephiro." What isn't there to understand? "I've given up on this game even though I'm a townie, I just can't defend my claims". And the Newbie, King of bandwagons card has gained a special trait: Hopeless! (Has a chance of causing even more confusion among the townspeople). On January 09 2012 12:08 CatsnHats wrote: + Show Spoiler + On January 09 2012 11:49 Jitsu wrote: Mafia - Sheth Cats Blurry Next game.  I agree with you on Blurry (since I voted for him), but I sir am town. Of course you agree. You want rid of the townie, that you are even suspecting to be a medic. On January 09 2012 13:31 CatsnHats wrote: Probulous I agree Xeris>Gretorp in terms of scumminess out of the lurkers. I've stated my suspicion of Blurry a couple of times too, he hasn't been helping himself lately. If I had to pick 3 for the 2 spots remaining it would be Blurry, AH/Bkrow, and Xeris. I'll give Bkrow some time to prove himself though. Also, Gonzaw is null for me right now. The way he placeholder voted Sheth (even if he was mafia) didn't sit well with me. I need to recheck the filter to confirm. "I agree with the strong townie that I'll convince to make me look better in the endgame" Then cleverly planting the seed to cast doubt on Gonzaw.... THE OTHER SCUMBUDDY! Protect one, bus the other? On January 09 2012 13:46 CatsnHats wrote: Alright I rechecked Gonz's filter. Other than the bullshit back and forth between him and Tunkeg (poor tunk ), he's played very pro-town up to this point. He's really been on Blurry and Xeris, which I obviously like. And sure he ghosted your Sheth read, but I've been much more guilty of that offence so I can't hold it against him. Ah, wasn't the right time to awake suspicions on him yet? Obviously you like that your scumbuddy has also been trying to lynch Blurry, your suspect for the medic. And a lurker, who are basically free points for you. You name one bad thing (just incase to not look too good), about him ghosting his Sheth read, but you quickly nullify that by saying you've been even worse. On January 09 2012 14:46 CatsnHats wrote: Yeah I think Sheth new he could take me down with him I've screwed myself over so bad with my wishy-washy save myself play. Smart play on his part. ..... You do know that it's not allowed to have more than 4 newb cards in your deck? >_> But it's your gameplan, so cheating a bit doesn't matter eh. I haven't even bothered to count how many times you go back on your newbieness as an excuse, even though you said you wouldn't in one of your first posts. On January 10 2012 07:40 CatsnHats wrote: @Jitsu If I had flipped to vote Sheth you all would have just called me out for bandwaggoning again, so I decided to stick to my decision, even though I was in the minority. Obviously I was wrong about Sheth, but I switched from Gretorp to CM/AKCT last time and you called me out for bandwaggoning. Really though that's a situation where I'm fucked either way. If I change my vote, I must be mafia bandwaggoning. If I don't (like I did), I must be mafia defending a scumbuddy. I don't see how you can get a read on me from that. Jitsu is on to you. What to do you do? Plan: Eliminate Jitsu, activated. On January 10 2012 08:19 CatsnHats wrote: This is kinda getting into WIFOM territory, but do you really think Sheth would say this if I was actually his scumbuddy? Of course he would say that, to make you look better when he flips. Some more material you can use in your defense, no-one else brings this up anymore. Well... at least Sheth was honest On January 10 2012 08:55 CatsnHats wrote: Alright well I just thought I would mention it. Clearly everybody have their minds made up. Nothing I can do can change your opinions of me at this point. I'll keep posting until I'm lynched on D3 though (kinda waiting on the new people to post). That way when I flip green, you can first laugh at how bad of a town I was (don't worry, I've been laughing too ), and then you can look through my filter for some reads. Yeah right. Keep claiming you've given up on hope already, to cling to your last chances even harder than before. On January 10 2012 10:09 CatsnHats wrote: Is this the proper time to announce it? I wasn't, but I've already said I don't have a role. I'm starting to think the mafia is afraid that we have a medic though. That's why they went for Tunk and Jitsu and not you Prob, for fear of the medic saving you (our "leader" of sorts). Wouldn't you know..... On January 10 2012 13:10 CatsnHats wrote: @Blurry I have to admit that shit was hilarious, you picked one of my favorite "CatsnHats" pictures. But you literally add NOTHING new, and much off that is old material. The rest of the town has been on my case the whole game, why would you post that? It's blatant sheeping. You're just trying to make yourself look good to the town by picking the easiest target. I'm convinced your scum. This will be interpreted as OMGUS but I don't care, I voted for you last time until Sheth asked me to switch (hindsight is 20/20 but I really thought he was town you guys). ##Vote: Blurry Your suspected medic makes a bad case which is just blatant sheeping against you. You got a darn lucky jackpot right here. I can just imagine how happy you have been reading Blurry's case, knowing you can use it against him to get him lynched on D3. On January 10 2012 13:40 CatsnHats wrote: Nope, no hard feelings (except for this quote of yours: "He only voted for Sheth after Sheth told him to and has been all round terrible. His "leaving" post caused confusion and he claims it was a gambit. In general he has been nuisance to town so I would not be sad to see him leave." That kinda hurt .). When I do play again (which will be a while since I have college starting back Wednesday), I will play it SO much because of all that I have learned. That being said, I'm not giving up yet. I'll push for Blurry until I'm lynched, and if I am, hopefully you'll go after him next. Also, I only voted for Sheth after he told me to because I thought he was TOWN and he was only doing it because a mislynch is better than a no-lynch for the town. I don't see how that is hard to understand. When everything else fails, apply to emotions! You might've made it work on Probu, but that's not gonna work on me. On January 10 2012 14:02 CatsnHats wrote: Sometimes I feel like we are. People can say I'm terrible, but I least I've been active. I'm probably the 2nd most prolific poster now. And yeah my gambit was really bad. I was such a newb though. I thought that was an original/novel play, it didn't even occur to me that others have probably tried that before and were hated for it. Oh well, lesson learned. "I'm active and trying to contribute, don't you guys see that I'm town?" Now that Jitsu who was on to you is dead, you move on to phase 2 of your plan.... from newbie to the town-saving contributor! + Show Spoiler + On January 11 2012 05:23 CatsnHats wrote: Probulous you probably weren't expecting this, but I'm about to change up my read. The more I read Blurry's thread, and I've read through it multiple times now, the more I think he is just a lurker newb not sure how to contribute. Even when he sheeped against me so hard recently, he admitted that he was doing it immediately. He was the 2nd person to vote for Sheth (and he had a surprisingly good read on him for posting so little). And the WIFOM posts I called him out on earlier make more sense in light of the fact that he says he has been using his gut alot since he feels his analysis isn't up to par. Your gut is the only way to make a decision about a WIFOM situation. I feel like I can read newb play, being that I was/still am one, and Blurry definitely strikes me as a lurker newb town now. Thats being said, he still needs to post more. All of this reading wasn't in vain, because after perusing through filters I found a different target. Paperscraps: Being a Replacement Doesn't Make You Innocent A replacement for Gretorp, Paperscraps wasn't done any favors by having a terrible predecessor. Gretorp was a shady, shady player, drawing the suspicions of everyone despite having a small number of posts. Tunkeg the night killed townie called out Gretorp for lurking and responded with this: What is this other than OMGUS and an attempt to confuse the town? A very shitty move for a townie to make. After being pressured on this ridiculous post, Gretorp responds: In other words, "LOL jk guys if I promise to make reads will you stop pressuring me?" These are Gretorp's last 3 posts. Post #1 is an attempt to put pressure on someone else. Post #2 is an attempt to make an excuse to relieve the pressure on himself. And Post #3 is an attempt to make a promise to relieve the pressure on himself. And then poof, he was gone. This reads really scummy to me. Enter Paperscraps. Here's his first post. Much better than Gretorp, but that isn't saying much. His reads are pretty interesting though. He picks Xeris, a bigger lurker than Gretorp, and Blurry, a player already under an eye of scrutiny. This is an easy thing to do. And he doesn't give any reasoning for his picks. Sheeping/ghosing, call it what you will. It definitely isn't original though. Next post. Blurry stays scum. Xeris changes to null (probably because he's caught up with everyone's opinion Xeris by now), and I am town. Keep this in mind. He also posts the 3 clearest town reads as his own. Nothing original. When Probulous questions him on his reads, Paper agrees and changes his mind about me, claiming he will re-read my filter. Xeris is also off his radar completely. Most interesting however is the fact that he sticks to his case that Blurry is scummy. Paper claims that: "Blurry doesn't agree to vote up Sheth until you ask him if he will. All his posts previous to that have no read on Sheth or say he he may be slightly town. I guess you are right that it is stupid to jump from Cats to Sheth, but you, one of the best readers in this game, think he is town now. Maybe that is what he wanted to happen. I still think he is scummy." Blurry acutally did post analysis on Sheth. Even though it was scant, it was correct, and he was the only one up to that point other than Prob to question Sheth. Paper, as scum, knows that Blurry is town, so he's neglecting facts to cast a shadow on a suspected player. Paperscraps then busses Jitsu, using his death during N2 as evidence for Jitsu being correct about me being scum. This is sheeping against the most suspected townie. Paperscraps next two posts are further sheeping of Jitsu's analysis of me. There is no reason to quote them, they are one-liners and are easy to find on his small filter. With my new opinion that Blurry is town, I think Paperscraps is scum sheeping against the two questioned townies, me and Blurry. Because of all of this reasoning above: ##Unvote: Blurry ##Vote: Paperscraps I look forward to your response Paperscraps. And at this point I think Xeris/Kronhjort is going to get mod-killed, and if he flips blue/green, I will be PISSED. Here you go on to brainwash Probu even more, trying to ensure him that you are town. You do a surprising move by starting to blame Paperscraps instead of Blurry.... not. You had a clever plan, but not enough. You didn't find enough mistakes in Blurry's play, so you made a case on Paperscraps instead. But Blurry was your suspected medic...... well, no worries, since you know that your scumbuddy Gonzaw is going to make a case against him soon, and then you can jump on the bandwagon once again, riding into the sunset with another stain of innocent blood. On January 11 2012 08:00 CatsnHats wrote: Thanks Prob. And that is a really hard question. I wouldn't be surprised when Xeris/Kronhjort gets mod-killed if he flips red. But that is just wishful thinking because there really isn't any info to go on for him/them. AnxiousHippo's play was suspicious but bkrow has played much much better. That leaves Cephiro, Gonzaw, and Blurry (you and I are town). I'd say the 3rd mafia is between Cephiro, Xeris/Krohnjort, and Gonzaw. Hopefully it's Xeris and we can win this game in one more day!!! "Yess, plan worked, the strong townie I'm going to backstab tonight is going to make me look good." Of course you know the 3rd mafia is between Me, Xeris and Gonzaw, since Gonzaw has been your scumbuddy all along.... On January 11 2012 13:04 CatsnHats wrote: @Cephiro I included Gretorp in my analysis of Paperscraps because they are the same person. I would be remiss to leave out my opinion on Gretorp and just analyze Paperscraps, that would just be throwing away half of the available information we have on him/them. What are the things that you mentioned you did? Have you already analyzed Paperscraps? If so I missed it and apologize for that. Can you requote it to me? Also, you say Prob asked for my case on Blurry and that I didn't write it. But I did, it's at the top of my post on Paperscraps. I came up with the same conclusion that Prob did about Blurry (town for now), but with separate analysis from him. I've been taking Prob for granted up to an extent, but remember I did ask the town if we were following him too blindly. I have an overwhelming gut feeling that Prob is town. With the sheer amount of posting he done (like 8 of the 36 pages), he is either a really good town or the most ballsy scum ever. I think it's the former. Apologies, to try and not wake my suspicions, but to win me on your side also. You almost got me >.> Then praising the Probu, ensuring that he will make you look better as you deviously backstab him next night. Blurry is town for now, because you know Gonzaw is about to bring his case on Blurry. You're just waiting patiently... On January 11 2012 14:44 CatsnHats wrote: I think Paperscraps is the strongest lynch target right now, I've made my case and he is my #1. And I'll keep making it as he continues to post. I would vote for Xeris/Kronhjort but I fully expect him to be mod-killed, so that would be a waste of a vote/lynch. I think Blurry is town (and I've made my case for him being so), but there is enough suspicion surrounding him from others that I would vote for him if there was no other way to get a lynch. That would be a last resort though. Assuming Xeris is modkilled, Paperscraps>>>Blurry in my opinion. Reading town sentiment though, it sounds like it is going to come down between me and Paperscraps. And here you make the slick move to excuse yourself on voting for Blurry soon (in bolded). Very well played indeed, but not well enough. You keep pressing for Paperscraps, since you want him killed on D4 to ensure the win for scum. On January 11 2012 14:55 CatsnHats wrote: And of course lynching the lurker or me would be best for you, because neither of them are YOU. And that doesn't help your case towards being town. Alot of the grunt work analysis done on me was before you entered the game and I picked up my play, you have no claim to it other than bandwagon. And lynching a lurker gets no one town cred. From your response to Paperscraps. He is actually trying to provide his own opinions of you, but you quickly claim it as blatant bandwagoning. When he talks about Xeris's flip, you bring up how lynching a lurker isn't town-cred for him. Well... weren't you the one pushing for lurkers all early game long? On January 12 2012 06:22 CatsnHats wrote: + Show Spoiler + On January 12 2012 06:12 Blurry wrote: The idea that me immediately voting for Sheth was somehow a mafia plan to make me innocent in the town's eyes is rather stupid. I am not a good player by any stretch of the imagination so why would he sacrifice himself to try and help make one of the weakest players in the game look more innocent. It was not clear that he was going to be lynched. May I remind you that the vote for him succeeded by just one vote. If I had been scum I would have either feigned inactivity and not voted, or perhaps voted for Cats who was already under a lot of suspicion at that point. These are very good points Blurry, glad to see you are posting again. What do you think of my case against Paperscraps (my new thoughts on you are included in that post)? Would you be willing to vote for him, or are you dead set towards only voting for me this lynch? "Well hello there soon-to-be-killed Medic!" "What do you think of my case, haven't I improved a lot? Aren't I a clear townie?" At this point you've clearly picked up your play, and you're looking dangerously innocent. Here you are trying to convince Blurry off you, just to ensure his death further. On January 12 2012 08:41 CatsnHats wrote: WHAT THE FUCK. If you are telling the truth you just fucked us over. You are going to die tonight now if that's true. And your scumbuddy Gonzaw lands the big fish. And it wen't even better than expected, he claimed medic! This is the moment where you jump in and "Omg really no damn why did you do that?", when in reality you are laughing as your devious plan worked even better than expected. On January 12 2012 09:15 CatsnHats wrote: You role claimed after you were pressured by one person? OMG why?! Cephiro makes alot of good points towards you actually being a medic, and I'm about 85% sure you are. Well that leaves me and Paperscraps up for vote in 45 minutes. I would like to think I have done enough to redeem myself to live another day (I don't think I will be targeted in the night because of all of this new info). I think we should vote Paperscraps. Do you agree Blurry? bkrow? Probulous? Cephiro? Gonzaw? You are that sure of him being a medic? But you end up voting for him.... And isn't it surprising that you won't be killed in the night, since you're the player that kills everyone at night... On January 12 2012 09:22 CatsnHats wrote: Oops sorry Probulous I meant nightkill instead of lynch. That TOTALLY changes the meaning of my post. Thanks for catching it. Here you did an intentional mistake, just to make you look more newbie than you actually are. Damn you are tricky. On January 12 2012 09:26 CatsnHats wrote: I'm prepared for those consequences. Paperscraps is my scum read, I posted my case, and I will stand by it. His responses to my claims haven't done much to lift my suspicion of him, either. You will stand by it... for 15 more minutes. Then you can blame him for the whole D4 as you get the medic killed. On January 12 2012 09:53 CatsnHats wrote: bkrow/Cephiro we HAVE to have a lynch today. We can deal with the consequences after the lynch. Vote Blurry! Hurry! Why would you say this? Because lynching the medic gets your scum team in a very good position. No townie would say the bolded. Whew, almost finished.... | ||
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Cephiro
Finland1934 Posts
Final part of CatsnHats analysis On January 12 2012 09:55 CatsnHats wrote: WHAT THE FUCK. 5 minutes left. Make a decision. We don't have time. Here Probu brings up the logical town choice, rather be safe than sorry, since the medic is important. What do you do? Pressure him to lynch him of course. And unfortunately you succeed. On January 12 2012 09:57 CatsnHats wrote: Cephiro we NEED your vote! Indeed you did. And what a horrible mistake I made. I let you trick me too on top of outsmarting Probu. But that will not happen again. On January 12 2012 10:06 CatsnHats wrote: Paperscraps. Did anyone notice he went MIA during that last hour of shitstorm. And now that your plan was successful, you move on to finish your plan and secure the win by pushing for Paperscraps lynch on D4. On January 12 2012 10:11 CatsnHats wrote: GOD DAMN IT. After the night we are now in MYLO territory. You bring it up after the medic has been killed... LOL. A townie would have brought up that before, not dealt with this "consequence" later. On January 12 2012 10:25 CatsnHats wrote: Cephiro, I think I have the whole reasoning behind it figured out. But if he's going to explain before daybreak I'll wait for him to tell his reasons. I know this will make me look suspicious. On another note, I'm still convinced Paperscraps is mafia, and I think he should be our target for day 3. Did anyone else find it suspicious that he disappeared during that? And at this point you are on to the fact that Probu is the DT. "Nice, now I can kill the DT tomorrow, hopefully I've played wishy-washy enough that he hasn't checked me." And damn right, lucky you he didn't. And you've brainwashed him to the point where doesn't even consider you as scum. So devious. SO DEVIOUS. And you keep pushing for Paperscraps lynch here... On January 13 2012 09:56 CatsnHats wrote: I don't really know what to say right now... I just waiting for the night post. I have a lot to write, I'm just not posting it right now for timing reasons. I will say I think Gonzaw and Paperscraps are mafia (in case I get killed in a little bit). I'm more confident in Gonzaw than Paperscraps. Now you are afraid you might die during the night..? LOL. Also, now you're starting to bus on your scumbuddy, to make you (or him) look better if one of you gets lynched. On January 13 2012 10:02 CatsnHats wrote: Gonzaw never posts anything of substance. Just look at his defense post above. If you even FOS him a little bit, he goes into WTF fuck fuck fuck are you kidding me? mode. All of his post are just little incredulous statements that mean nothing followed by a question mark. And here it goes. And so the two scumbuddies start pointing fingers at each other, to make the other one gain town-cred in case things go wrong. On January 13 2012 10:09 CatsnHats wrote: Thanks Prob, you've been our MVP up until now. I knew you were DT because you said you HAD to lynch Sheth, even if you're arguments were irrational. I thought you had checked my N2 though, because you changed your opinion of me and I didn't think that was possible unless you had looked at me. Making up a story here aren't you. You know very well if he had checked you, you'd be hanging in a rope by now. I can just imagine the relief when you saw that he didn't have a check on you. On January 13 2012 10:24 CatsnHats wrote: Basically you're saying, "You didn't play detective the way I wanted you too, because I'm mafia and it made it hard for me to be sure that you were a blue." Another planned slip to make you look better? On January 13 2012 10:38 CatsnHats wrote: With me and bkrow as town, here are the possible scum combos: Gonzaw, Paperscraps Cephiro, Gonzaw Cehiro, Paperscraps I put these in order of probability in my eyes. And who is the most likely scum combo? Your scumbuddy (Gogogo more town cred if he dies), and your today's victim Paper. On January 13 2012 10:42 CatsnHats wrote: EBWOP: I don't really think you are scum, Cephiro. You have to be included because you weren't confirmed by Prob, but you were the reason he checked Sheth, so you're town in my eyes. Lynch Gonzaw, then Paperscraps and we win! "Trust in me, Probu did too, we can still win this!" Nice try, but no! I wonder whether you are planning on night-killing me or lynching me tomorrow. On January 13 2012 11:11 CatsnHats wrote: Cephiro: This was my case on Paperscraps. I've included the subsequent interactions between Paper and I as well. Sorry it's a little hard to read since there is so much, but if you open up all the nested quotes and really read it I think you'll see that this is a really good case against Paperscraps. + Show Spoiler + On January 11 2012 05:23 CatsnHats wrote: Probulous you probably weren't expecting this, but I'm about to change up my read. The more I read Blurry's thread, and I've read through it multiple times now, the more I think he is just a lurker newb not sure how to contribute. Even when he sheeped against me so hard recently, he admitted that he was doing it immediately. He was the 2nd person to vote for Sheth (and he had a surprisingly good read on him for posting so little). And the WIFOM posts I called him out on earlier make more sense in light of the fact that he says he has been using his gut alot since he feels his analysis isn't up to par. Your gut is the only way to make a decision about a WIFOM situation. I feel like I can read newb play, being that I was/still am one, and Blurry definitely strikes me as a lurker newb town now. Thats being said, he still needs to post more. All of this reading wasn't in vain, because after perusing through filters I found a different target. Paperscraps: Being a Replacement Doesn't Make You Innocent A replacement for Gretorp, Paperscraps wasn't done any favors by having a terrible predecessor. Gretorp was a shady, shady player, drawing the suspicions of everyone despite having a small number of posts. Tunkeg the night killed townie called out Gretorp for lurking and responded with this: What is this other than OMGUS and an attempt to confuse the town? A very shitty move for a townie to make. After being pressured on this ridiculous post, Gretorp responds: In other words, "LOL jk guys if I promise to make reads will you stop pressuring me?" These are Gretorp's last 3 posts. Post #1 is an attempt to put pressure on someone else. Post #2 is an attempt to make an excuse to relieve the pressure on himself. And Post #3 is an attempt to make a promise to relieve the pressure on himself. And then poof, he was gone. This reads really scummy to me. Enter Paperscraps. Here's his first post. Much better than Gretorp, but that isn't saying much. His reads are pretty interesting though. He picks Xeris, a bigger lurker than Gretorp, and Blurry, a player already under an eye of scrutiny. This is an easy thing to do. And he doesn't give any reasoning for his picks. Sheeping/ghosing, call it what you will. It definitely isn't original though. Next post. Blurry stays scum. Xeris changes to null (probably because he's caught up with everyone's opinion Xeris by now), and I am town. Keep this in mind. He also posts the 3 clearest town reads as his own. Nothing original. When Probulous questions him on his reads, Paper agrees and changes his mind about me, claiming he will re-read my filter. Xeris is also off his radar completely. Most interesting however is the fact that he sticks to his case that Blurry is scummy. Paper claims that: "Blurry doesn't agree to vote up Sheth until you ask him if he will. All his posts previous to that have no read on Sheth or say he he may be slightly town. I guess you are right that it is stupid to jump from Cats to Sheth, but you, one of the best readers in this game, think he is town now. Maybe that is what he wanted to happen. I still think he is scummy." Blurry acutally did post analysis on Sheth. Even though it was scant, it was correct, and he was the only one up to that point other than Prob to question Sheth. Paper, as scum, knows that Blurry is town, so he's neglecting facts to cast a shadow on a suspected player. Paperscraps then busses Jitsu, using his death during N2 as evidence for Jitsu being correct about me being scum. This is sheeping against the most suspected townie. Paperscraps next two posts are further sheeping of Jitsu's analysis of me. There is no reason to quote them, they are one-liners and are easy to find on his small filter. With my new opinion that Blurry is town, I think Paperscraps is scum sheeping against the two questioned townies, me and Blurry. Because of all of this reasoning above: ##Unvote: Blurry ##Vote: Paperscraps I look forward to your response Paperscraps. And at this point I think Xeris/Kronhjort is going to get mod-killed, and if he flips blue/green, I will be PISSED. On January 11 2012 13:26 CatsnHats wrote: Overall this is a poor rebuttal Paperscraps. My answers are bolded and underlined. On January 11 2012 14:55 CatsnHats wrote: Really? I know apologizing can be a scum-tell but I actually missed/misunderstood what he was referring too, apologized for it, and he cleared it up. You're reaching. And of course lynching the lurker or me would be best for you, because neither of them are YOU. And that doesn't help your case towards being town. Alot of the grunt work analysis done on me was before you entered the game and I picked up my play, you have no claim to it other than bandwagon. And lynching a lurker gets no one town cred. On January 12 2012 06:18 CatsnHats wrote: What out of this post am I dodging, exactly? There isn't really a question posed to me. For #1, it's good that you posted and are active, but you were just echoing the past (very vocalized) concerns of other players, so it doesn't really do anything to help you. I love #2. "As for your analysis of Blurry, I actually agree with it." Haha I thought you were going to shoot holes in it, but oh well. And in #3, you admit to skipping over the evidence that debunks your argument (that Blurry thought Sheth was town), that just doesn't sit well with me. As for #4, the WIFOM hypothetical is you saying this in the post where you vote for me (section bolded): This whole scenario is impossible to prove and is pretty outlandish if you ask me. WIFOM like this does nothing to help the town. It is a good way for scum to deflect pressure though. He hasn't really posted much since, trying to fly under the radar if you ask me. Him sheeping against Blurry makes him look pretty bad after the fact too. I don't have an official write up on Gonzaw yet, but I think we should lynch Paperscraps first because he is the safer of the two options in my eyes. That way we can extend the game another day and you/bkrow can make more reads on Gonzaw and me to make up your minds between the two of us. Him sheeping against Blurry? And what did you do.... I think you are avoiding to make a case on Gonzaw on purpose. To make him look just a little better. You think we should lynch Paperscraps first, because that would win you the game. Not gonna work. + Show Spoiler + On January 14 2012 02:13 CatsnHats wrote: Paperscraps, you seem to think that it is important what order I think we should lynch you and Gonzaw. I did flip-flop from Gonzaw to you 1st, but it doesn't really matter either way. If you want to lynch your scumbuddy Gonzaw first, then by all means I'll be down to do it. You're both scum in my eyes. Your argument makes me shake my head because you came into the game late and I can almost guarantee that you only read my filter, not the posts from other people that surround mine. You say this: "Cats has been posting a bunch of filler posts about Probu being awesome and sucking up to him pretty much. Cats claims he "knew" that Prob was DT and that we "HAD" to lynch Sheth, but this is after the fact and doesn't mean anything. Cats is using Probu to dissuade others from thinking he is scum." It's not sucking up because I said it when we all thought Probulous was going to die (himself included). This was like a goodbye post. For the record, Probulous is/was awesome. If we manage to win this, it will be because of him. That being said, I don't even think you read my post correctly. I didn't say "we HAD to lynch Sheth." I said Probulous HAD to lynch Sheth, even if he had to use irrational arguments to convince people. Why did I say that? Because I was quoting what Probulous said right here: Hmmmm... why would someone push so hard to get a person lynched, even using irrational arguments? Because they are the DT. Come on Paperscraps, read the thread, not just filters. As for my change of opinion on Gonzaw, why is that not allowed? Did you check the time stamps on those posts? Slight-town: 7th Null: 9th Very-pro town: 9th (I had just checked his filter, and said he "played very pro town up to that point." That doesn't mean I am certain he is town. You even agreed he had because of the way he bussed Sheth. This is a town read in my eyes, but I'll leave it as very pro town for the sake of argument.) Suspicious: 11th Scum: 13th That is 2 days in between most of those posts. 2 days is ALOT of posts and opportunities to make reads, especially for someone like Gonzaw who hasn't made a glaring mistake to completely change town sentiment on him. The reason I kept changing was his relentless aggression and cursing in his defense of himself. It kept throwing me off. I think he is mafia now though, and if we lynch him and he flips red, it shouldn't matter that I thought he was town in the early game, when reads are so difficult to make. You are also getting on to me for my posting before the lynch and nightkill posts. You say they are filler. They may look like that now, but the hour before each of those events was a flurry of posting. If you think I'm scum because I posted a lot during the most stressful period of the game to date, then so be it. "For the record, Probulous is/was awesome. If we manage to win this, it will be because of him." I laughed my ass off when I re-read your filter and found this. Indeed, if you manage to win that, it's certainly thanks to the fact that you managed to trick him into believing you are town. In the early-game you are obviously trying to avoid scum-reads on your buddy Gonzaw, so that he wouldn't get DT checked or lynched. But as the game goes later, you build up your bussing situation that has it's grand finale today. Clever play indeed. On January 14 2012 05:19 CatsnHats wrote: + Show Spoiler + On January 13 2012 10:48 Cephiro wrote: But you weren't confirmed by Prob either any more than me. (I consider confirmed by Prob only the people that he checked) I'm still not sold on that you would be a townie. Could you provide YOUR cases on Gonzaw and Paperscraps, and include that why do you think the other is a bigger threat? I will be leaving in a few minutes myself, but when I come back, I'm going to post a lot. A LOT. (And it's not going to be useless fluff.) I know I haven't responded to your analysis against me in the early game. But remember that I said I couldn't defend myself against it. Up until the Sheth lynch (I really thought he was town, it was a gut feeling, kinda like Prob's gut feeling on Blurry), I flip-flopped, I bandwagoned, I did everything in my power to not be killed (see martyr post lol). If I was mafia, don't you think Sheth (and possibly the mafia's coach if they're using one) would've taught me how to play better in the beginning? Sheth was the first person to subtly pressure me and I almost fell apart right there. I haven't used a coach and realized after the Sheth lynch (perhaps to late) that analysis and active contribution were the only way I was going to prove myself. You've admitted in multiple posts that I have stepped my game up, enough to where you even placed a vote on Paperscraps (until the Blurry incident). + Show Spoiler + On January 12 2012 09:40 Cephiro wrote: ##Vote Paperscraps If he flips green and Cats is alive in the morning.... I'll vote for him and won't change my vote no matter what. I do this only because you've picked up your play and you finally stand by your case. I hope I am doing right in trusting you. Ceph, I'm asking you to put your trust in me again. Think of me as Cats, the active contributor and analyzer of late, not Cats, the newb wishy-washy trash player of the early game. + Show Spoiler + On January 10 2012 10:23 Probulous wrote: WIFOM alert, which is more likely? Scum knew I was iffy about Cats and that Jitsu would be the one pushing his case, so they shot him. Or Jitsu had correctly noticed in Gonz's filter and scum quickly shot him to stop suspicion of Gonz? Or We have no fucking clue and this is a waste of time? I bolded the case that I think is correct. Probulous and Jitsu were suspicious of Gonzaw. Now both of them are not here, + Show Spoiler + On January 13 2012 10:48 Cephiro wrote: I'm still not sold on that you would be a townie. Could you provide YOUR cases on Gonzaw and Paperscraps, and include that why do you think the other is a bigger threat? I provided the Paperscraps case, but I haven't done a full blown Gonzaw case yet. I don't know if a full blown case is needed on him though. We have Prob and Jitsu suspecting him, and now they're both gone. That counts for something. I still post something about Gonz later though. As for who is more dangerous, I kinda think Paperscraps is. I don't think Gonzaw is capable of defending himself well other than cursing and rhetorical questioning, Paperscraps is beginning to be more active (although I don't think his arguments are that great). I could see Paperscraps convincing you and bkrow that he is just a newbie though, and that scares me. That being said, I'm fine with voting off either, because I think both are mafia. What do think Ceph? Playing the newbie card again at the start of the message. Then you are just saying you can't defend yourself, and try to skip it. A townie would never say they can't defend themselves. Then you're trying the emotion-way again, asking me to trust in you. I did that too much on D3, but it's over now. You then bolded the "correct" case, which is bussing your scumbuddy. In reality, BOTH of those cases are correct. And you keep saying that a case on Gonzaw isn't needed because both townies suspecting him are dead. You keep saying how he is obviously scum, and then keep trying to pressure Paperscraps as the more dangerous choice. I think you want Paperscraps dead, because a townie lynch would win you the game. I'm not gonna fall for that, it's you or Gonzaw today. ##Vote CatsnHats For the record: CatsnHats is my strongest scumread, second to none other than Gonzaw himself. But I really need a break now, will post my Gonzaw-case a bit later. (Will do it way before the deadline, don't worry.) | ||
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Just noticed that while skimming through >.> That does NOT make him any less scum though. Gonzaw is the other scum, I stand by that. | ||
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On January 14 2012 19:57 Paperscraps wrote: I've also been pondering some things. @CatsnHats: Question: Does it strike you as odd that Cephiro voted you up instead of gonzaw? Cephiro and gonzaw are still a possibility for mafia, even though it is slim. @Cephiro: I think you are town. However you can't be 100% certain that I am town and I can't be 100% certain you are either. Just making sure we cover all possibilities. I am very interested in your take on gonzaw. Question: Would you be willing to lynch gonzaw instead of CatsnHats? In the off-chance you are mafia, you are very devious haha. I can't find anything in your filter to suggest you are scum though. I am working on the gonzaw case at the moment, but it will take me a while before I post it. You should expect to see the first part in less than three hours or so though. It's good that you are keeping your mind open, even though I think it's starting to get quite clear that Cats and Gonzaw are the two mafia. Or at least that's my opinion, it makes perfect sense as multiple times proven in my analysis on Cats. I am willing to lynch Gonzaw as well, since at the moment I am very confident on both of my reads. But at the moment my read is stronger on Cats, and I would like to see him hanged for his devious tricks. You are not off the hook either, but after reading your filter multiple times, I just can't find nowhere near as many scum tells as in Gonzaw's and Cats's. Your play looks much more pro-town to me than Cats, but Gonzaw is a damn tricky case indeed. But yeah, in my opinion we lynch Cats, then Gonzaw. Both will do. | ||
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Gonzaw On January 04 2012 12:11 gonzaw wrote: So this is your first forum game ever? Not just first game on TL? You seem to know quite a bit about the game though, may explain why? If there are 3 goons, a goon can fake-claim being RBed. If we go by that "If someone claims RBed, there is a RBer", then it will fuck us up. If there is a Medic, then he will believe there's also a DT (when in fact there isn't), and viceversa, and that can help scum with fake-claiming the other PR First you are trying to paint me as "experienced", when it's my first time playing. A few others called me out for my bad starting posts, but for some reason you are trying to make me look dangerous, but not calling out on that mistake? In the latter part, I think it's because you know that there is a mafia roleblocker (for all I know you could be the mafia rb, it's you or Cats after all). You're trying to set yourself up for fake-claiming in case it's needed. Your only risk would be the counter-claim, but especially since your strong start you must've believed that you can convince everyone that you would be the real power role. On January 04 2012 12:35 gonzaw wrote: EBWOP: Interesting. If you are town, I really hope you are right about you being "good at mindgames". If you are scum I really hope you aren't. A nothing-saying wishy-washy filler, again trying to raise suspicions at me. On January 05 2012 04:26 gonzaw wrote: + Show Spoiler + On January 05 2012 01:44 CatsnHats wrote: Lurking around at the beginning, writing a paragraph of text that amounts to nothing, and then OMGUS-ing the person that prods you... not a good look Gretorp. Pretty scummy if you ask me. Is it scummy enough for you to vote him? Also, I'd like to see your thoughts on Gretorp. Setting yourself up to start pressuring Gretorp more once he shows up, also asking Cats to join the bandwagon if you decide to start one. Unfortunately that didn't quite work out since he was so inactive, you had to find another target. On January 05 2012 04:43 gonzaw wrote: Also, what do you think about Gretorp? + Show Spoiler + On January 05 2012 04:17 CatsnHats wrote: I said this earlier in regard to Gretorp's first post and I still stand by it. He backs off in his second post but adds nothing, just promising analysis later, which I look forward to seeing because right now I'm suspicious . @Sheth You would have a better read on Gretorp though since you have played with him before and invited him to this game. What do you think about his first posts? Again, you said you are suspicious of him and you think he's scummy. But you didn't vote for him yet. Is there a reason for it? Are you just "waiting" to see what he does or something? Keeping up Gretorp's name just incase anyone is about to forget, then soft-pressuring Cats about some more pre-planned "newbie" mistakes. + Show Spoiler + On January 05 2012 04:54 gonzaw wrote: EBWOP: Nobody mentioned RL yet, why did you? Anyways, just so we get the RNG lynch our of the way, this is what I think of it (feel free to ignore it if you want though, it doesn't really add anything new to the discussion): I think the point of random lynch is, first, to have EVERYBODY ABSOLUTELY AGREE to lynch whoever is chosen. Then, we somehow randomly choose someone (we can make everybody RNG someone, and the one that comes up the most is chosen). Although scum will surely choose themselves, and will surely not choose a fellow scum member for the lynch, so this gives us info too. Then, we decide to lynch the guy. If nobody objects and completely agrees, then we can be sure that player is town (scum would flip their shit if their team member is RLed on Day 1). If somebody objects, then maybe he's scum (and his scumbuddies are objecting), or it's just a townie changing his mind. In any case, you don't lynch anybody, you use it as a ruse to get information and get confirmed townies and stuff. The gist of it is not mentioning this to anyone though. Anyways, I don't know if this can work or not, so maybe in Post-Game (or now if you want) we can discuss it more thoroughly. Filler, but admitting it to excuse yourself. + Show Spoiler + On January 05 2012 05:37 gonzaw wrote: Yes, that's the point. You ACT like if you were going to make a lynch based on RNG, but in fact you don't. It's used to get info. If the guy chosen by the RNG is scum, I'm sure scum members will freak out. If the guy is townie, I'm sure nobody will freak out (except that guy obviously). After the guy to lynch is decided, and everybody voices their opinions, you just say "lol jk I wont' random lynch him" and just play normally. Of course I think this may be best suited for a Mayor for instance, since I think those choose the lynch on Day 1, or some similar role (it would be kind of impossible to pull this off in a normal setup). More of the same filler. On January 05 2012 05:46 gonzaw wrote: EBWOP: + Show Spoiler + On January 05 2012 05:37 CatsnHats wrote: @gonzaw I haven't voted for Gretorp because I thought we weren't supposed to vote until near the end of D1. Throwing a vote out with so many hours left to use for reads isn't very smart. Plus I was waiting for his response, as well as the first posts of Xeris and the return of Blurry, who seems to have fallen off the face of the Earth. Votes can also be used for pressure, and to see the reactions of other players (and the one you voted obviously). Specially on Day 1. Although if you are certain the guy is scum, then vote for him with all your courage and try to convince other people of so. Although okay then, that's fine.I expect you to make some "reads" on Gretorp/Xeris/etc soon though. More back-and-forth chit-chat w/ scumbuddy Cats, so that no-one can back to you about ignoring him. Here you are "learning him how to play", with the previously planned "newbie mistake". Also, what are these "reads" you are talking about? On January 05 2012 12:15 gonzaw wrote: [/b]+ Show Spoiler + On January 05 2012 07:59 CookieMaker wrote: My turn. This is my first big read. If you disagree with any of it, please raise the issue. Here are my "Strongest" town reads. Each section will have a brief summary and then reads for the player and reads against, with bolded sections of quotes being the evidence I'm presenting. This was originally going to be longer but I'm starving and heading for groceries asap so I just took the best of what I had. For this play the pro-town evidence feels significantly stronger. Cephiro: -This read is on the big assumption that he is not a highly experienced player disguising himself as a rookie. Otherwise: + Show Spoiler + Appeared nervous at the start with the majority of his math, but I'm chalking it up to newbie nerves. He then goes on to be both active and helpful (even though he may not realize it). Many of his posts seem very slightly hesitant, but my guess on that is because he's seen how these games can quickly bandwagon an innocent townie to hell and he's just slightly afraid. My gut feeling on him is by far the strongest, and if I had to pick anyone right now to be pro-town, it's him. Pro-town evidence: + Show Spoiler + On January 04 2012 10:42 Cephiro wrote: I'll have to say CookieMaker provides a few good points to start with. Even though none of us knows the exact set up, I would have to argue that we as town have a much better starting point. Considering the case that the mafia would have a role blocker, it will most likely be less useful until later game when people are starting to have better reads on each other. If the town has both the medic and detective, it is quite likely that they will be able to do something useful. (Mafia role blocker would have 9 persons to choose from, since he/she would know the 3 mafia.) That leaves a 2/9 = around 22% chance of roleblocking on the first day, since I'm quite sure there will be no roleclaims this early. On the other hand, the medic has a very small chance of blocking the first kill on N1 (1/11 * 8/9 ~ 8% chance), but the detective has a chance of as much as 27% finding scum on N1 if he doesn't die. (Which would be about 24% in total, which is still higher than the chance of mafia roleblocking.) Note: You may notice I'm into maths a lot.... Also, it might even be that the mafia has a roleblocker but the town has no power roles, which renders the mafia roleblocker useless, making the situation even worse for them. Anyway, I think that we should try to be provocative and try to raise as much discussion as possible. In my opinion we should aim to lynch someone (hopefully scum) on D1. A no-lynch would essentially give the mafia a free kill, and not necessarily get us that much more information. Also... What a lovely way to start the game... but on the other hand, I doubt even a newbie scum player would slip that early, even though it could be done on purpose to make us think even a newbie wouldn't slip such, but in fact being scum anyway? In this first post the sentence I like is bolded. Straightforward and to the point, and clearly trying to integrate what he read in other games before this started. + Show Spoiler + On January 05 2012 00:16 Cephiro wrote: Time for a D1 analysis! Obviously I'll leave myself out, but if someone wants to know more about my opinions / ask why I'm in favor of something, please go ahead, discussion is what we need at the moment. Also, my apologies if I'm wrong with someone's gender, I'll make a mean generalization and expect everyone to be a male until noted otherwise. Player List: 1.CookieMaker For now I'm leaning slightly towards town on him, even though he is quite in-favour of the no-lynch possibility. But I think that may be due to the fact that it's his first game, and he may not have read through/followed many mafia games before. So I'm thinking he's rather be safe than sorry, but hopefully he'll realize the amount of information even a possible mislynch will give us, not even mentioning the huge lead we can get if we nail a mafia on D1. His posts could have slightly more actual content, but he's trying so for now he's okay to me. 2.Liquid`Sheth Hasn't posted anything useful aside from welcoming people and pressuring CatsnHats. Sure, pressuring at this point has to be done, but deciding to pick on one person for no real reason at this point and providing no other content? Hopefully he means well and just tries to make sure CatsnHats plays pro-town regardless of being new, I mean, Sheth does have 2 previous games of TL mafia as a base of experience. But for now, I am reading something between neutral or slightly scum. I dare you to prove me your innocence, so I'll be waiting for your morning post. 3.AnxiousHippo Doesn't seem to have any idea of what he should be doing, but I guess it's understandable since it's only his second game. I am hoping to hear more from you, since you haven't posted enough content to make any kind of read on you. Neutral. 5.Tunkeg Good forewarn on not being able to answer at the start of the game. Appareantly was on the winning side in his first game. He seems like an aggressive type of person, wanting to start the accusations and pressure to get some discussion going on. Thinks that D1 lynch is a must, but backs it up with some very good points. Took the first vote playing it relatively safely, voting for a lurker who hasn't posted yet. Clearly wants something to happen, but I am for now unsure if his method will be very successful. Neutral for now, but if you keep the activity up I should be able to get either a slight-town or slight-scum read on you soon. 6.Jitsu Seems to want to actively participate, and most of his posts so far are convincing people to lynch on D1. Hasn't posted any actual content other than that though, so I will still stand on a neutral read. I am hoping to hear more content from you soon, I need to get more reads. 7.Xeris All I can say is, no content, not a good sign. Neutral. 8.Gretorp Same as above, neutral. 9.Gonzaw Answering people's questions, trying to explain some of the basic stuff that should be understood, looks good to me. I like the way he pushed to know more about how I seem to know about the game, so he seems like he isn't taking anything for granted. Also suggesting pressure voting to get things going. I have a slight town-read here. 10.Blurry Seems to be in favour of no-lynching, wanting to stay on the safe side. Hasn't talked about anything but different possibilities if a mafia roleblocker exists. Not useful. (Okay, I'll have to admit that my statistics post at start wasn't necessarily very useful either, but I've been at least trying to post other content as well.) Neutral for now, but if you won't be posting more, I would lean on slightly scum. 11.Probulous Being very active at the start, and the play seems really town-favouring. Constantly asking for opinions and explaining his reasoning. I like his opinion on lynching, definitely wanting to lynch mafia but still keeping in mind the possibility of being careful incase we don't get any reads on D1. Hopefully we will have some scum reads that we can go for so no-lynch won't be necessary. Pressuring the people that should be on according to timezone but haven't posted. I would have to say you are my strongest town-read so far, I want to hear more of your opinions when you're back. 12.CatsnHats Being a new player, it's understandable that he's a bit confused, but you really need to learn that you CAN'T TRUST anyone but yourself. Whatever you think about the situation or someone's reads, say it, don't just agree or disagree randomly. I'm kind of worried of the chance that you are a townie whom the mafia would be able to talk around easily, but I hope you'll prove me wrong. (about the convincing part.) Or you could be mafia that is pretending to be a super-newbie town on his first game... who knows. But you're neutral so far. Start posting your opinions! I'm not going to vote yet myself, but I will join the pressure voting in a few hours if Xeris and Gretorp aren't going to turn up. More of the same. He lays his cards on the table for all to see, and it's doing it for me. My gut tells me that while a mafia player might make the same post to gain trust, they wouldn't attempt to analyze as hard as he has. Rather, they would use it as more of a confusion technique and be even more wishy-washy. When Ceph isn't sure on someone, or has a weak gut feeling, he still says it, rather than trying to present two opinions and fuel a debate. Similarly, when he's sure of himself, he also is very direct in stating his point. Not only that, but he was dead-on when he said my posts thus far didn't have very much useful content. He was right, I had nothing to go on at the time and was still fishing. I have bolded sections in the above quote that reflect what I like about this. Even though his EBWOP was slightly apologetic, it had a very natural feel to me, out of genuine concern rather than fear. Maybe I'm reading too far into this, but the apology might be a gut reaction to himself having to read so much (a realization I also had as a first-time player). + Show Spoiler + On January 05 2012 07:14 Cephiro wrote: Hello again everyone! Got caught up watching a good movie, but going to catch up on mafia now: I see your point. I consider that you need to be able to trust some people to some extent in this game, and I am trying to find players which I can be fairly sure of to be townies. That does not mean I will analyze them any less though, I'm not taking anyone for granted neither am I setting anything in stone. I think that the first 24-hours of D1 in this game are quite hard to start pointing scum fingers at someone, but I assure you that whenever my scum sensor alerts, I'll let you all know. So I do get your point about finding scum directly, but I don't want to negate trying to find out whom are town. In my opinion, both is better than just the other. About Gretorp, I am certainly not liking his play so far. He has only posted twice, which of one was appareantly a joke, and the other being an explanation of the first message. The fact that he has posted but still hasn't said anything with content feels suspicious to me. What do you others think? Random Lynching is a retarded idea in my opinion, (since someone brought it up, I'll have my say in this as well.) because we still have more than a whole day on us to make reads, and since we don't have a mayor in this game, we can't use it in the way you were theorycrafting either. I still stand by what I said at start, I want us to be able to get enough reads on people to lynch a scum on day 1. Jitsu's post pretty much sums up my opinion. I don't approve Xeris's play at all so far, all he has is two posts talking about the different ways of lynching, he hasn't provided any opinions about anyone, nor asked anyone else about their reads. Not very pro-town in my opinion. If he isn't going to step up soon, I am probably going to pressure vote for either him or Gretorp. My timezone is GMT +2, so it's around 15 minutes past midnight at the time of this post. I will probably stay up for at least 2 more hours. @Jitsu: I'm actually starting to be really suspicious of him at the moment. He had a very active start, even though his content was somewhat fluffy. I've changed my opinion about him since my earlier post, partly due to many people providing good reasoning about his play so far. I am actually wondering a bit as he hasn't said anything since yesterday's start, so I'm interested to hear if he has some actual opinions or reads to give when he comes back. This recent post is another goodie IMO. Again very direct and unafraid of his position and stance on strategy, as well as attempting to offer genuine contribution. I've again bolded what he says that really ring a green bell with me. His consistency shines through. [bAnti-town evidence: + Show Spoiler + On January 05 2012 04:41 Cephiro wrote: Okay, I'll admit that my statistical starting post maybe wasn't the best opening post ever, but at least I tried, unlike many others... can't blame me for being excited and trying to contribute! To be honest, I don't understand your claim about me being wishy-washy at the start, when I was clearly trying to push for some points. For example: On the other hand when I read your posts, I see almost nothing useful. You're trying to pressure CatsnHats, and trying to clarify some acronyms and such on D1. You're not posting any of your reads. And now you asked CatsnHats about his opinion on Gretorp when he already posted about it... you're giving surprisingly much attention to him to start the game with in my opinion. I'm pointing my FoS at you. I'll have my eyes on you Sheth. I'm not going to accuse you of being scum yet, but I suggest that you all watch Sheth's posts carefully. You'll have to try harder than that to convince me. Really this is more town-evidence IMO, but some might say that the speed with which he flipped the accusation around makes it suspicious. I tend to think that it's just a bit of an instinctive OMGUS, otherwise he handled the pressure really well and without any trace of guilt. As well, I kinda like his read on Sheth and the way he's now using Sheth's own tactic against him :D -Slightly Bandwagon-ish: He is slightly following the bandwgon on the Xeris train, but I don't blame him at all here because I'm of the same mind. On the whole his contribution has really stuck out to me as useful (or trying to be) rather than "active filler". This is one of the few reads that I'm much more sure of. If there is a medic in this game, my recommendation would be on his protection because I think he will be one of the standards around which the town needs to rally. Gonna grab food, and compile more reads, and tonight I'm gonna hit y'all with some knowledge. Current Opinion: Very Pro-Town So, you made a great analysis of why a player is town. Is this game about finding townies? No. I already said this to Cephiro, our priority is not finding townies. Your priority is not posting walls of text of who you find townie. Your priority is finding scum. Now, apparently you forgot about that part. + Show Spoiler + On January 05 2012 08:13 CookieMaker wrote: + Show Spoiler + On January 05 2012 07:58 AnxiousHippo wrote: This is one of the worst posts so far. Cookiemaker points out that Probulous leaves right after making accusations, and later says that he's about to go to sleep too. He also talks vaguely about how people are trusting eachother but so far it's only been cephiro and catsnhats, there's barely any trust from everyone else. He then uses a fancy metaphor which always annoys me, like they're trying to sound better. Then he posts some more useless metaphorical stuff saying he wants people to be a bit more active. and then a poem. cookiemaker clarify what players seem to be trusting eachother sheth tell us what posts are bothering you Also, where did blurry go? @AH The players who I saw as "trusting" each other were Sheth, Probu, and Gonz, who seemed to be employing the similar tactic of applying "harmless" pressure to see what the responses would be. I was going to just come out and say it, but I didn't want to players under fire to be let off that easy, so instead I wrote the cute little Haiku Now really going for food, stay tuned for more action. What? If I pressure people the same way as another player, I trust him? I don't think that makes much sense. Also, I don't really "trust" people in mafia games. I either think they are town, scum, or I'm indecisive. Even if they are town, I may still not trust them. For instance, I may not trust their reads. I believe Probu to be town for instance (for now, he's been absent for some time and I find that worrysome), but even if that's the case I don't really trust him for now. If he finds some scum, then maybe I will. Also, you never explained that "I will vote for the one that has less votes" part, it seems you are trying to ignore that we pointed it out. I think you are scum bro. + Show Spoiler + On January 05 2012 07:14 Cephiro wrote: Hello again everyone! Got caught up watching a good movie, but going to catch up on mafia now: I see your point. I consider that you need to be able to trust some people to some extent in this game, and I am trying to find players which I can be fairly sure of to be townies. That does not mean I will analyze them any less though, I'm not taking anyone for granted neither am I setting anything in stone. I think that the first 24-hours of D1 in this game are quite hard to start pointing scum fingers at someone, but I assure you that whenever my scum sensor alerts, I'll let you all know. So I do get your point about finding scum directly, but I don't want to negate trying to find out whom are town. In my opinion, both is better than just the other. About Gretorp, I am certainly not liking his play so far. He has only posted twice, which of one was appareantly a joke, and the other being an explanation of the first message. The fact that he has posted but still hasn't said anything with content feels suspicious to me. What do you others think? Random Lynching is a retarded idea in my opinion, (since someone brought it up, I'll have my say in this as well.) because we still have more than a whole day on us to make reads, and since we don't have a mayor in this game, we can't use it in the way you were theorycrafting either. I still stand by what I said at start, I want us to be able to get enough reads on people to lynch a scum on day 1. Jitsu's post pretty much sums up my opinion. I don't approve Xeris's play at all so far, all he has is two posts talking about the different ways of lynching, he hasn't provided any opinions about anyone, nor asked anyone else about their reads. Not very pro-town in my opinion. If he isn't going to step up soon, I am probably going to pressure vote for either him or Gretorp. My timezone is GMT +2, so it's around 15 minutes past midnight at the time of this post. I will probably stay up for at least 2 more hours. @Jitsu: I'm actually starting to be really suspicious of him at the moment. He had a very active start, even though his content was somewhat fluffy. I've changed my opinion about him since my earlier post, partly due to many people providing good reasoning about his play so far. I am actually wondering a bit as he hasn't said anything since yesterday's start, so I'm interested to hear if he has some actual opinions or reads to give when he comes back. Yes that's fine, let's just hope you keep your word that you'll try and find scum though. I'm sure other players will remind you that though. Also, where the hell is Xeris? He ignores my vote and posts completely, then disappears? Wtf? *sigh* this won't get us anywhere. Probu is right about the inactives though, unless we install a "lynch lurkers" policy lynch (or should have installed it long ago), lynching them will not give us that much info, and if they don't post more we can't really get any good reads on them. The thing is that other than the threat of a lynch, how do you pressure lurkers/inactives into posting? If we just let them pass then they could be inactive the whole game or as long as they want. If they are scum they can just cruise through the game. *sigh* I'll just not pay attention to it for now then, unless they post, which I want them to. I suppose this applies to Gretorp too, even though he posted more (but more nonsensical things). ##unvote: Xeris ##vote: CookieMaker You know what Probulous? You remind me of how I see those mafia vets here play. You know, post images that follow giant walls of text, analyzing "behaviours" and such. Now, although I feel you are town, I mostly feel you are a good player, and a dangerous one at that. If you end up being scum I'm sure you will fuck us up. So I urge other players to take a good look at Probu, even if they think he's town, just in case. Also agree that Cephiro isn't actually doing that much in terms of actually contributing, just posting a lot of "town reads" and such, but I already said this to Sheth, I don't actually know if the whole "contributing without contributing" thing that's going on here can apply to newbies who haven't played the game before. Specially with someone as excited to post as Cephiro, he may just post whatever he thinks, even though it may be unnecessary filler or such. I may be wrong though, but I won't take that into account for now. He picks on Cookie here and votes for him due to his newbie play and mistakes. Yet he lets me off the hook for some of the same things. Taking one out, setting the other up for brainwash, trying to convince me into agree whatever your opinion is later. Also, the same mistake Cats did later. Soft pressuring Probu, not really blaming him for anything, but throwing around the idea that he could be scum. Just trying to cause suspicions here. On January 05 2012 12:30 gonzaw wrote: EBWOP2: Shit I feel so stupid, I had another tab opened with the response and didn't see it >_> + Show Spoiler + On January 05 2012 08:51 Blurry wrote: Part 2: (taking a long time to write this) I know I originally wanted to not lynch somebody but the benefits of information make it a more appealing option and I feel like we have some solid candidates 7: Xeris Has contributed absolutely nothing other than his stance against a lynch today. No analysis or contribution. Leaning on Scum. 8: Gretorp Has also not contributed anything + no stance on any issue presented. Unless he posts something meaningful in the next day he will get my vote. Leaning heavily on scum. 9: Gonzaw Likes to pressure people and prod them for feedback. Also posted his thoughts and took a clear stance on issues. Leaning on town. 10: Me I haven't contributed much other than the Roleblocker thing but I will stand by that. If someone gets role blocked they should immediately say it. The more information the better, and it would be risky for a mafia to claim being role blocked if it gets revealed that there really isn't he is automatically implicated. So guys, if you get role blocked: make sure you tell us. 11: Probulous Another discussion leader. Has been active in contributing and putting pressure on people (catsnhats). Leaning on town for him. 12: CatsNHats Although he may have flip flopped positions early in the game I still feel like he is town as he has not shied away from speaking his mind on who he thinks may be scum. We should pressure him but my stance on him is neutral. Ugh... I don't feel like I added too much with that so I'll go back over everything and post my overall feeling for the game so far. Hmm, I find it interesting how you use the same format Cephiro did for posting your analisis. Did you do that on purpose or is it a coincidence? Also, who are those "solid candidates" you speak of? If you had to lynch only one of them now, who would it be? Gretorp? Does the new events change your opinion or not? Also: + Show Spoiler + I haven't contributed much other than the Roleblocker thing but I will stand by that. If someone gets role blocked they should immediately say it. The more information the better, and it would be risky for a mafia to claim being role blocked if it gets revealed that there really isn't he is automatically implicated. So guys, if you get role blocked: make sure you tell us. Isn't this kind of obvious? Of course if a townie is RBed he should claim, why did you feel the need to state so? Fluff talk about using a similar format. Then you bring up Gretorp again. And.... CONTRADICTION! Here you are saying if a townie is roleblocked they should claim "of course". But earlier you go on about how a possible fake-claim could mess it up, making the town think there is a roleblocker when there isn't. You're being ambigious here, so that you can back up on yourself whatever someone thinks. On January 05 2012 13:04 gonzaw wrote: What's a smurf? 2 different accounts or something? No I'm not implying that (also it doesn't really matter), the fact is that you are playing like those other players, and that makes you dangerous in my book. Ehm, I prefer to discuss WIFOM in the early stages, preferably at the beginning of Day 1 where everybody derps and there is no discussion going on at all, than in the heat of an argument or something on Day 4 or Day 5 should the need arise. Imagine something happens in a night that makes people talk about WIFOM (maybe a Medic dies and someone claims RBed, or something). -If we hadn't discussed it before, then people would start doing it at that time. That would take away precious time to catch scum, could interfere with ongoing arguments, etc, specially if we are at LYLO or something -If we had discussed it before, then as soon as someone mentions anything you tell them "shut up and reread the thread, it was discussed before if you continue we lynch you" and bye bye WIFOM interference. For instance, if someone claims RBed, and another person says "Wait! He could be scum fake-claiming! bla bla bla" I will instantly shut him up and tell him to reread what I posted earlier. Also, just so the discussion about WIFOM doesn't become a WIFOM discussion itself (in the sense that it interferes ongoing discussions), let's just stop right here. Either agree or disagree, we can discuss it in Post-Game or Pre-Game of another game later. Blablabla WIFOM blablabla LYLO blablabla WIFOM blablabla RB blablablabla WIFOM. What's the point? On January 05 2012 13:36 gonzaw wrote: Okay, what is this? If he flips town or mafia (if he's lynched) it will tell alot about a lot of players. Isn't that the reason we were advocating a misslynch earlier? If he flips town, then it means your whole argument regarding him was false. It means that you "misread" a townie and advocated his lynch. Why would you do that? Were you honestly mistaken or did you do it intentionally? Regarding how you react to his flip, and looking at your filler, many players can conclude many things from this. You are basicly implying that if he flips town, then you are not suspicious and nobody should look at you. That would be pretty convinient if you are mafia, and pretty dickish if you are town. Soft-pressuring Probu again. Picking up on his mistakes, trying to punish him for that. On January 05 2012 14:57 gonzaw wrote: EBWOP: + Show Spoiler + On January 05 2012 14:43 Probulous wrote: Why Sheth Just when you are looking good you write something that comes across really scummy. You are also making the same mistake I originally did, here are the setup options. Set Up: 1 Mafia Role Blocker, 2 Mafia Goons, 7 Town, 1 Medic, 1 Detective 1 Mafia Role Blocker, 2 Mafia Goons, 9 Town 3 Mafia Goons, 1 Medic, 8 Town 3 Mafia Goons, 1 Detective, 8 Town They can have a roleblocker with no blue roles. It just means that if someone is roleblocked, there are either no power roles or both DT and Medic. No point speculating now. I know you are heading to bed but who are your top 3 scum reads, please before tomorrow morning. Can we got a vote count please? If someone is RBed (again, take the WIFOM I mentioned earlier into account), then if YOU are the DT, YOU know there's a medic, since the only possible setup with both a RBer AND a DT is the 1st one (which coincidentally also has a Medic). He says "Then it means we have a medic who can save you if you come out". He's clearly speaking to the DT here. I thought that was pretty apparent. Backing up scumbuddy Sheth. Then he has a longer post where he blames Xeris, Cookie, and Blurry. ( 3 townies ) + Show Spoiler + On January 06 2012 03:51 gonzaw wrote: + Show Spoiler + On January 05 2012 18:58 Xeris wrote: I've been quiet because I work around 15-16 hours per day, and realistically, I'll only get to check this thread probably: once in the morning, once or twice at work, and in the night (nowish). I talked about the badness of random lynching because the first few pages of posts kept mentioning random lynching. This thread balloons crazily and I don't have the time to read in detail every post. So when I see 15-20 posts about random number generators and lynching people, I want to explain why I think that's bad. Anyway, it seems like the suspicion points at Cephira and CM (who just got replaced?). Brb reading some of the posts more carefully Meh. I'm not convinced of anything. I'll follow along with a lynch if people are convinced and just going to go for it- but I stand by my belief of not killing on the first day. Seriously, thinking people are scummy because of stupid analysis skills and bad/inconsistent posts is really silly. Although perhaps I have no clue about online mafia, anyway that's basically it from me. Will check in the morning, glgl The problem is not that you are inactive, the problem is the content of the little posts you have. Things like this for intance: + Show Spoiler + On January 05 2012 04:22 Xeris wrote: I can guarantee you guys that I am not mafia -- I'm a townie. Anyone who has played mafia with me knows how terrible I am at being a mafia. I am a really good townie though, so you should definitely keep me in the game! I don't vote in this thread right?? When are the votes due (i.e. what actual time)? + Show Spoiler + On January 05 2012 18:58 Xeris wrote: I've been quiet because I work around 15-16 hours per day, and realistically, I'll only get to check this thread probably: once in the morning, once or twice at work, and in the night (nowish). I talked about the badness of random lynching because the first few pages of posts kept mentioning random lynching. This thread balloons crazily and I don't have the time to read in detail every post. So when I see 15-20 posts about random number generators and lynching people, I want to explain why I think that's bad. Anyway, it seems like the suspicion points at Cephira and CM (who just got replaced?). Brb reading some of the posts more carefully Meh. I'm not convinced of anything. I'll follow along with a lynch if people are convinced and just going to go for it- but I stand by my belief of not killing on the first day. Seriously, thinking people are scummy because of stupid analysis skills and bad/inconsistent posts is really silly. Although perhaps I have no clue about online mafia, anyway that's basically it from me. Will check in the morning, glgl Those seem like a contradiction to me, you can't say you are a "really good townie", and then undermine your own play, saying you'll just sheep along, and that you don't have any "clues about online mafia", etc. Actually, it is a contradiction assuming you are town. If you are scum, then it would be perfectly fine, even so since you said you were a horrible scum player, am I right? What's your response? + Show Spoiler + Seriously, thinking people are scummy because of stupid analysis skills and bad/inconsistent posts is really silly. Who exactly are you talking about here? + Show Spoiler + Although perhaps I have no clue about online mafia, anyway that's basically it from me. Will check in the morning, glgl Also, stop doing this. Even if you are a "newbie", you shouldn't "undermine" your own play. It will make other people underestimate you too, and you will have a more difficult time convincing them, etc. ...of course, if you are mafia this is actually pretty good for you, so don't do it (it's just like Gretorp's "joke", it's dumb if he's town, but works for him if he's mafia). If you have the time, I'd like you to respond to my questions to you, and of course give us your thoughts on the current events. + Show Spoiler + On January 05 2012 15:32 Blurry wrote: I posted in the same format as Cephiro because I'm new to this and I'm trying to pick up on how this game is played. Thus you will see me emulate some things that other players will do or how they format their analysis. This won't be the first time you will see this. Solid Candidates: Gretorp, Cookiemaker I would probably rather lynch Gretorp because he hasn't said anything To your last point: This is a newbie game, maybe its not obvious. I just want to make sure that people know to claim a RB. Emulating other players, just by formating your post in a similar way to make things more tidy and stuff is fine. ...but don't emulate players in other ways. Try to be yourself here. Also this could be the perfect excuse for sheeping or jumping on bandwagons and such "I was just emulating player X!". So try to be as "authentic" here as possible. + Show Spoiler + On January 06 2012 00:53 Blurry wrote: Okay, my last post for the day: Staying on CM/Tea as I am still unsure about Cephiro. Other than that, I'm sorry I couldn't contribute more this first day as I am still new to this and am not sure what to look for in terms of reading players but by going over players posts I am getting a good idea and I'm sure my analysis quality will steadily improve over the course of the game. One thing that strikes me looking back at all this is CM voting for CatsinHats. If CM/Tea is indeed scum then I think this provides evidence towards cats not being scum as I dont think CM would have been that meta especially with the holes in his play he has already shown. This can't be assumed however so I would still be suspicious. To be honest, CM's vote was formatted wrongly. Whether it was intentional or not, I don't know, but the point is that it won't count for the vote tally. There's the small chance both of them are scum, and he formatted wrong on purpose, so don't go assuming otherwise (of course he could have just bussed normally and forgot to format it correctly). Also, damn, this whole replacement thing is kind of a let down. I wanted Cookie to come and explain himself, *sigh* I suppose we can't do that anymore... I'll check Tea's posts in a moment. I also suggest all of you view Tea's posts in the same light you viewed Cookie's posts. If you thought Cookie was scum, then you think Tea is scum; if you thought he was town, you think Tea is town, that's irrefutable. On January 06 2012 06:24 gonzaw wrote: ...wut? You are admiting you scumsliped? Wtf? Should I just assume that was a question and you fucked up the grammar or something? Also, I was under the impression you were assuming there is a blue role, which is stupid at this point (even though there's 75% chance of there being at least 1 blue role, but again leave that to night 1 talk). And like I said, if scum have 3 goons, they know for sure that there is a blue role, and therefore can scumslip. Assuming there is a blue role, and this scumslip are almost impossible to distinguish, so if you are town just stop doing it (you and everybody else, specially the blue roles if there are any). Time to pressure the next townie a bit, Jitsu is under the gun this time. On January 06 2012 06:30 gonzaw wrote: I'm telling you to stop assuming there are blue roles. I was telling Tea to stop talking about blue roles (and Sheth, and those other guys that did so before, and the ones that answered Tea's questions). "I don't want the others to know if there are blues since they could use that information to check us or protect our night-kills." On January 06 2012 10:06 gonzaw wrote: Hmm.. Okay guys, now reread every town and scum read from Cookie/Tea and knowing they were green. Also check everybody's reason for voting them, just like we were discussing with Prob, etc. Hey Prob, a question regarding the inactives: You really think Xeris and Gretorp ONLY (hyperbole here, don't dwell on it) look bad because they are inactive? What do you think about Gretorp's "joke", "promise" of analysis' and failure to state so? What do you think about all the points I mentioned about Xeris? Him saying "I'm a good townie! Look at me!" and then undermining himself? Him posting thoughts about RL (same as Tea) when it was never discussed and failing to address any of these points when he was active?. "Blablabla, our kill went through, I'll post some filler." Re-read his reads knowing he is town and everyone's reasons for voting bla... isn't that obvious? You keep bringing Gretorp up again. You sure want this lurker townie lynched? And then pushing the other lurker too. Going for free town-lynches much? On January 06 2012 10:24 gonzaw wrote: I'm not actually saying they are mafia. They are just VERY scummy, inconsistent, and we NEED TO PRESSURE THEM AS SOON AS POSSIBLE. Ever since the whole Cephiro vs Cookie thing came up, we basicly ignored them. We can't do that anymore. We have to either threaten them with a lynch, or with a DT check (if there is one) or something, they can't go like that anymore. Also, like I said the point is not lynching them just because (that's stupid), the point is getting them to talk. Also, I'm very suspicious of Xeris at the moment. Even though he had 4 posts in which you say makes him "hard to judge", here's what he did: -He contradicted himself. -He talked about mechanics when it wasn't necessary nor was the current discussion -He ignored people's votes and pressure on him. -He played the "I'm a good town! You better not lynch me because I'm good!" and the "Maybe I'm bad at online mafia, don't take my reads into account" card (related to point #1) I can't just ignore him, I can't. "I'm not saying the lurkers are mafia so I can't be called out for that, BUT OH THEY ARE SO SCUMMY AND WE NEED TO GET RID OF THEM, THEY ARE DANGEROUS" Yeah. >.> Keep pushing for the lurkers. On January 06 2012 10:25 gonzaw wrote: EBWOP: For instance, I can't believe EVERYBODY ignored this: Keeps bringing up a quote that doesn't really mean pretty much anything. BUT IT'S A CLEAR SCUM-TELL ABOUT A LURKER!!!! + Show Spoiler + On January 06 2012 11:41 gonzaw wrote: Fair enough. Although remember that just because someone has similar views/reads to you it doesn't make him less mafia or more town. Well, don't we all? Okay, there are 2 basic reasons for voting Tea (or AKCT, whatever): 1-For previous reasons of certain players 2-A bandwagon vote to avoid a no-lynch. Players in the 1st category would include: Me, Tunkmeg, Blurry Players in the 2nd category would include: CatsHats, Sheth, Prob, Jitsu, Cephiro, Hippo *sigh*, not really much to go on on that 2nd category, almost everybody reasoned their vote for Tea to avoid the no-lynch. However, some of the players in the 2nd one did FoS him before. Tunkmeg was the first one to FoS him (I think), but he stated his reasons, and were actually good ones, so quoting him or discussing it any further wouldn't do us much good. About Blurry though: Here he just used Hippo's point to FoS him. Doesn't seem like he put too much effort in analyzing him. Again he's using other people's analysis as well (Prob pointed that out Cookie's sheeping of Jitsu first).. At least Tunkmeg came up with points of his own to FoS Cookie, Blurry seems to regurgitate things already said. Something I don't like here, same as Xeris, Cats, etc. DON'T.APOLOGIZE.FOR.NOTHING Need I remind you to read Ver's Guide, were supposedely the Mider guy was obvious mafia because of his constant apologizing and undermining himself? I already stated my opinion on this subject though (when I responded to Xeris). I pointed out that you don't need to assume unnecessary things. This is not actual WIFOM, but it's a false statement ragarding a WIFOM scenario, which is the same if not worse than the WIFOM itself (but yeah, we still all call it WIFOM nevertheless). You also have a very short filter (post more), and I don't like that "I will emulate other players" attitude: In fact, you didn't respond to me when I pointed that out either. I don't really have a red read on him yet, since he posted way too little. But I want him pressured next day, along Xeris and Gretorp. Some filler analysis which he even admit's is quite nonsense, then pressuring Blurry. 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Gonzaw analysis continues On January 06 2012 11:55 gonzaw wrote: EBWOP: ....what? Okay, first things first: this is a GAME Even if you say you "suck" at it and make "town" pay or something, try and get better at it. Make it like a New Year's Resolution: I'll be good at TL mafia. You are actually making it worse for us this way. You will make us waste all of D2 because you want us to lynch you there. If you are town, we will not find any scum because of it. If you are town, and you act "scummy" and such, it would be better to misslynch you if you fight and defend yourself than lynch you just because you are a burden or something. In the first case we can get more info actually. If you are scum, then maybe you just don't like being under so much pressure, so you acted like you "surrendered", and maybe even ask for a replacement because you are coming under too much fire. Whatever the case (if you are town or scum)., you are not doing us any favour, and you are not doing any favours to yourself, so regain yourself goddammit! Keeps going about on how Cats's game sucks whether he is mafia or not --> "Don't take notice of him, he's just bad" When in reality, the mastermind plan has just started... + Show Spoiler + On January 07 2012 05:34 gonzaw wrote: Tunkeg, I expected you to do better than this. This was already said, nothing new. So here you state that some people are lurking, and didn't post nor vote... Do you think we don't know that? Tunkeg, this info here is absolutely useless. You are not saying anything new This was stated by Prob and me too. Again, you are not saying anything new. Yes, this is WIFOM, and very bad at it. Do you know how many games I played where some scum forgot about the game, disappeared and was modkilled? It's not "scum always pay attention to the game". If a certain player is busy, or doesn't care about the game in the first place, he won't care about the game whether he's town or scum. They don't have to be "clever scum" to be inactive. Hell, that's even the opposite of "clever scum", they have all the pressure and eyes on them, they eventually have to get here to not get modkilled and they have A LOT to respond to. They also have a chance of getting DT checked, or even getting policy lynched. This sounds pretty stupid to me if they are scum (and doing it on purpose); so what you said doesn't make any sense. Really Tunkeg, you were giving me a town feel, but this post is a mess and screams fluff and regurgitation everywhere. What the hell? Time to start blaming the next townie. But he ends up being too clever -> He has to be killed. Then you keep posting back and forth with Tunkeg arguing useless crap to keep him occupied until you get him killed. Very pro-town play.... eh? On January 08 2012 10:31 gonzaw wrote: ?? I had a null read on him until you posted your case, in which case I now have a scum read on him. You posted your case on him after you posed that question, so my answer was about what I thought of him at that point in time. I don't get how that could be misinterpreted. And yes, Sheth hasn't really been accused until now, his response can make us change our minds or make us more assured if he's scum. And I think we can notice if he's trying to "cast doubt" on what you've written. However I won't be around to see it. I'm going out now, and tomorrow as soon as I wake up I'll be going out of town for like 1-2 days, so I won't be around until that time. I hope I get back before it's too late on Day 3 though. So fuck Sheth, I was waiting for his response, but I need to make a placeholder vote, and the case against him is the best we have at the moment IMO, considering Blurry is ignoring me and Xeris just disappeared off the face of the Earth. ##Vote: Liquid`Sheth Oh, the mighty Probu mindcontrols even the mafia. "I strongly believe that my scumbuddy is scum after reading your case." You all scum certainly kept sucking up to him trying to stay safer that way. And here you do your brilliant move. Placeholder vote so that you won't be suspected at all if your scumbuddy dies. I think you had planning on sacrificing someone all along? Unfortunately for you it came sooner than expected due to Probu's N1 check. (Brilliant move, thanks for believing in me!), but you managed to talk your way out of any responsibility. How are you supposed to get any kind of read on a placeholder vote? On January 10 2012 10:32 gonzaw wrote: Fuck yeah we got scum! Okay people, I'm back but only for 1 hour or less.. I'll try to reread everything that went on as fast as I can... Looks so genuinely happy.... not. + Show Spoiler + On January 10 2012 11:36 gonzaw wrote: FUUUUUUUUUU... Sorry guys, I don't have time, I'm almost on the hour mark and I've barely even finished reading the thread. I'll respond as I see fit though. Also, tomorrow I'll be back earlier (I'll go to the same cyber, for more time if I can), so I'll address everything else there. + Show Spoiler + On January 10 2012 10:23 Probulous wrote: I think Jitsu was on to something here. He was adamant that Cats was scum and had changed his position on Blurry. If we assume he was sure Cats was scum and believed Blurry is town that leaves one scum in the following list
Here is what he had to say about Xeris and Gretorp A solid null read and his thoughts on Bkrow amounted to Hardly suspicion. So what does this mean? It means taking a good look at Gonz and Cats. WIFOM alert, which is more likely? Scum knew I was iffy about Cats and that Jitsu would be the one pushing his case, so they shot him. Or Jitsu had correctly noticed in Gonz's filter and scum quickly shot him to stop suspicion of Gonz? Or We have no fucking clue and this is a waste of time? Bk, you are in that list and have at least been posting so, what do you make of this? ...WTF is this WIFOM shit? Yes that's a waste of time unless you are backing it up with analysis. And now I was suspicious for wanting to take the WIFOM out of the way early so it doesn't clog up the thread later, sheez... + Show Spoiler + On January 08 2012 11:58 CatsnHats wrote:@Sheth you're exactly right. I'm ghosting on Prob's analysis of you. Gonzaw ghosted on it too and has already put a placeholder vote on you. I REALLY don't like that. He says that your words in your defense could have an effect on changing his mind, but that he won't be around to see it. WHAT IS THAT? This is a really important time in this game. We really need a lynch on mafia. That doesn't sit well with me. What about the "I'm going away from town" did you not get? Unexpected things IRL happen, I can't choose not to do them. I will come back tomorrow at around 6pm GMT or something, and around 1am GMT of the next day I'll be home so I can pay full attention to this game again. + Show Spoiler + On January 09 2012 08:48 Cephiro wrote: I am yet not sure what to think of you, but at least you are right in one thing whether you are a townie, or mafia trying to gain town-cred. I'll admit I maybe should have done that, but I didn't want to give the mafia a chance to no-lynch, nor give someone the impression that I was trying to jack the vote towards a no-lynch (pro-mafia play). But today, we lynch scum. Because we're going to lynch Sheth. Once I read the bolded, I knew we were going in the right direction today. Finally more people would realize the killer that hided behind the manner. And once I saw Probu's case of the D2 on Sheth, especially considering he is probably the strongest town read for many. (Which no-one should take for granted!), I got the feeling that today is the day the first scum falls. This is a very weird post for me. You have been trying so hard to provide content and analysis yourself earlier, but now you went from a null read to scum read just because of Probu's post? I admit that Probu posts good and convincing cases, but please people, think for yourselves too! If he's the one controlling the game with his analysis with everyone just jumping on the bandwagon, in the case he is mafia we're fucked. I am not saying he is, I got a town-read on him myself at the moment, but don't take it for granted! Anyway, this post made me more curious, I will have to read through gonzaw's filter again soon. From your response to Probu's analysis about you. We're not acting extra-mean to anyone. Could you provide some back-up for your claims of Cats being townie? All you say is the bolded, which is basically nothing. His posts and what not? But you obviously want to keep pressure on him, when you just said that sort of non-stop pressure almost made a townie suicide? Contradictory. Protection of scumbuddy, failed. No matter how well you know them, I doubt you can know if they are mafia or town by 3-4 pretty much oneliner posts about promising more. Or then you're one heck of a mindreader. I still don't get why you are protecting them so hard. Admittingly it's impossible to make a case on them on anything else than lurking, and if they are townies then they are making the game considerably harder for us :/ Hopefully we'll get replacements soon. A DT for a mafia is a good trade? Certainly not this early in the game. How can you be sure someone is DT if another person would counterclaim? You were fishing for blue roles earlier, are you afraid of the chance a medic could block your night-kills? At this point you seem fairly suspicious of Sheth. Why do you suddenly find him so town? You keep changing your minds on everyone, I just don't understand what the hell is going on in your head. Either you are the most confused player ever, or then you're clever mafia trying to get back in by confusing everyone and trying to get on the right bandwagons in time. I suspect the latter. The lurkers are better targets in your opinion. I admit it's certainly not pro-town play, but considering they are about to get modkilled or replaced, why would you not try to pick out the active scum? Even if they both would be mafia (Which I find very unlikely, and quite sure that's not the case), there would be still one scum remaining among the active players. Go and find that one! Then you talk about how people ghost Probu's analysis, even YOURSELF. But then you are getting suspicious on Gonzaw for doing the same. Do you have enough fingers to point in all those directions? I sure don't. Then you are "not suspecting Probu", but curious about if people are letting him by too easily. Sure, you can ask about it from others, but make a case on it yourself if you think that's what happening. I've seen at least me and Sheth critizise his analysis (admittingly, we were the ones being accused). That's no excuse, even to this point I haven't seen but smaller analysis from you, not a single "full write-up". Too distracted by all the pressure on you? That sure didn't prevent me from trying to catch scum when I was under pressure, even though admittingly delaying it a bit. Post 3. More coming up. For fucks sake. I'm away, I HAD to make a placeholder vote, what the fuck do you want me to do? I can't fucking believe I'm "suspicious" or something because of some shitty WIFOM from Jitsu's death and because I went inactive. IF YOU WANT TO MAKE A CASE AGAINST ME READ MY FILTER AND DO IT GODDAMMIT!!!!! I won't stand for this WIFOM shit, not at this point of the game. + Show Spoiler + On January 08 2012 22:40 Blurry wrote: Yes I would, and will. #Vote: Liquid'Sheth As to gonzaw's statement of me simply regurgitating information. For the most part that has been true but I've been going by my gut, which is not something you can post when convincing other people to take your side. I've been suspicious of Sheth from the start but don't have the analysis skills to back it up (I know that will read as scummy but bear with me) and write an informed post as to why. If I don't have the evidence to back up my feelings then there is no point in posting it. Wtf is this? So you won't even attempt to respond to my posts? You say you are going by "your gut"? Wtf? Also, I'll reread that "I've been suspicious of Sheth from the start" thing tomorrow when I check everybody's filter. I'll check the Cat situation too. Also, (maybe I'm late to this but whatever) everybody saying Blurry is town because he bussed Sheth "too early" or something is a fucking useless WIFOMist. Sheth's flip doesn't mean Blurry is town, doesn't mean I'm town, and doesn't mean Prob is town. Long story short: Accusing Probu & Blurry after Sheth's flip for different stuff, then OMGUS-defending when me and Cats pick on his placeholder vote. I'll give it that you've played well as mafia constantly picking each other for all kinds of small stuff but nothing that you could REALLY blame each other for. + Show Spoiler + On January 11 2012 07:43 gonzaw wrote: Omg, this is so awesome! Not only was Xeris inactive throughout the whole game, but his replacement is too! /sarcasm For fucks sake, you know what's actually annoying me? That if kronhort survives until LYLO (if we get there), then we are absolutely fucked. Deciding if he's scum or not is basicly the same as tossing a coin in the air. + Show Spoiler + On January 10 2012 11:49 Probulous wrote: Calm down matey. The only reason people were getting suspicious is because of Jitsu's post. I stand by my read on you based on a few things. The most obvious being you are aggressive and have called people on their shit. Contrary to what others might think, your argument with Tunk makes you look more town than mafia. I see no reason for mafia to call attention to their hit right before the day post. It is just stupidly and unnecessarily putting themselves in the spotlight. As for my WIFOM, I think it is pretty clear that there is no roleblocker, that is all I wanted to gain from it. No need to get all antsy about it. The WIFOM about you was to get people's thoughts on what is more likely. Clearly Cats is far more scummy than you, that is what I was trying to point out. I stand by my Blurry read. You have to make up your mind on limited information, Blurry looks a lot less scummy than Cats. He hasn't said or done much but what he has looks like a newbie town in my eyes. You don't agree, why? You can justify what he has done from both a mafia or town POV, but one is more likely than the other given the reads you have on other people and how they flipped. I don't see how Blurry bussing Sheth so early is more likely than him just being a sheeping town. Finally, anyone with half a brain knew you were away. You had a legitimate reason to put a placeholder vote down, and you placed it on a scum. You had been pushing Cats all game long, as mafia it would have been easier for you to just vote Cats as a placeholder and try to split the vote. In the same manner as Blurry, I think your early vote stands in your favour. *sigh* yeah, I kind of got a little bit carried away there. + Show Spoiler + On January 08 2012 22:40 Blurry wrote: Yes I would, and will. #Vote: Liquid'Sheth As to gonzaw's statement of me simply regurgitating information. For the most part that has been true but I've been going by my gut, which is not something you can post when convincing other people to take your side. I've been suspicious of Sheth from the start but don't have the analysis skills to back it up (I know that will read as scummy but bear with me) and write an informed post as to why. If I don't have the evidence to back up my feelings then there is no point in posting it. + Show Spoiler + On January 05 2012 08:28 Blurry wrote: 2: Sheth Theres one post by him that caught my attention: This for me could mean one of two things: A. A subtle claim to not being scum based on the logic that Jitsu would know immediately. Or B. I will be able to tell whether or not Jitsu is or is not scum. Other than this he has been aggressive in terms of trying to get people on the defensive (CatsnHats) which I like as holes will show in peoples stories. Right now I'm feeling like he would be town rather than scum but I think time will tell. . + Show Spoiler + On January 07 2012 17:19 Blurry wrote: I've been trying to figure out why someone would target Tunkeg rather than someone like Probulous (posted the most analysis and was one of the most assertive players thus far). I think this could potentially tell us certain things. Probulous posted his reads on all the players in the game categorizing them by who he thought was town/neutral/mafia. While this does not make him seem any more scummy. My instinct on this is that a player who is mafia is categorized by him as being town and this cover would be useful to the mafia in some way. My other thought is that Tunkeg was pressuring someone that was mafia in a way that made him the biggest threat. He was pressuring Gonzaw and Cephiro and also did a little bit on Sheth. Since Cephiro was already cast under so much suspicion by Probulous I infer that there is a high chance that either Gonzaw or Sheth, or both are scum and am going to re-read their posts thoroughly. My initial instinct is that Sheth is the more likely candidate as he has literally posted zero analysis and has simply pressured or challenged peoples points rather than helping us weed out scum. These were the only 2 times you ever mentioned Sheth. You even thought he was more likely town than scum the first time, that's a blatant contradiction of "I've been suspicious of Sheth from the start". So can you tell me wtf this is? You should be lynched just by this alone, it's a blatant lie. And now you are still emulating other people's formatting. Although I'm confused now, I don't know if you were making fun of Prob there or not. I also don't like your "I'm playing from my gut" attitude, I don't like your "I'll emulate other players" attitude either. These make it so easy for you to justify bandwagoning, sheeping, and whatever the hell you want if you are scum, which is what I think you are doing. I also won't dwell into the "it was early to bus him, maybe not" WIFOM. Sheth had already a static vote on him (mine), and 2 players already were intent on lynching him (Prob, Cephiro), that's half the votes needed for a lynch. You don't need more than half a brain to see that he was a very likely lynch candidate by then, so whatever WIFOM regarding that is useless. I also don't get what "town" thing he did by now. + Show Spoiler + On January 10 2012 12:11 Blurry wrote: I will say this to those that may claim that I have done a similar thing (which I have). I am, as Probulous so eloquently pointed out, a blatant sheep. I go where the grasses are the greenest and if someone has a good argument I believe them W...T...F? You know what does in fact make me more suspicious? The actual fact that Sheth and Blurry barely talked to each other at all This is the only time one of them talked to the other one directly in early game: + Show Spoiler + On January 05 2012 12:22 Liquid`Sheth wrote: I said this because in the last game we played together I was scum and he was town. Thats why its worded that way. Its just a claim that he has recent experience with me and I have with him. Now, after Sheth was pressured to being lynched, he posts this: + Show Spoiler + On January 09 2012 05:29 Liquid`Sheth wrote: Just going to post my thoughts on the others, as I am going to go watch Steelers v Broncos at a friends house soon, and I had some things come up today I didn't expect. 7. Probulous -- Townie at the start. Sooo townie at the start. Has recently started making a few logical mistakes. (Both against myself and Cephiro). Implying that Cephiro is a confirmed townie has me looking at you so much right now, but as of now my brain can't make sense of you. Null 8. Blurry -- Havn't filtered you in depth yet, but can get into basics. This post + Show Spoiler + On January 05 2012 08:28 Blurry wrote: About me being inactive: Sorry,I've been out all day since I'm on vacation in Montreal, and while it says I'm from Switzerland I recently moved to USA (EST) and have neglected to change my profile because I'm a little bit homesick+lazy. Anyways: back to the game, 1: Cookiemaker AnxiousHippo raised a very good point about Cookiemakers most recent post in his stating that trust has been developing amongst certain townies without providing examples. There was no reason for him to say this other than to try and fluff up his posts. Right now he seems scummy to me. 2: Sheth Theres one post by him that caught my attention: This for me could mean one of two things: A. A subtle claim to not being scum based on the logic that Jitsu would know immediately. Or B. I will be able to tell whether or not Jitsu is or is not scum. Other than this he has been aggressive in terms of trying to get people on the defensive (CatsnHats) which I like as holes will show in peoples stories. Right now I'm feeling like he would be town rather than scum but I think time will tell. 3: AnxiousHippo Cites his inexperience as a way out of having to provide much analysis but also hasn't said anything too scummy. I'm feeling neutral. 4: Cephiro Provided a lot of good points and has contributed a good deal to the discussion. I don't think think Mafia would be leading the discussion like he has been, especially at this level. Definitely leaning towards town on him. 5: Tunkeg Tries to get everybody to contribute which I like. Is very clear in his stance which is another good thing. Leaning towards town on him. 6: Jitsu I'm getting a town vibe from him as well as he asked for someones opinion on himself. This could however be a clever mafia play to try and discover where the holes in his play are. Leaning towards town as he has been pressuring people to contribute. Just shows that you havn't put much time into the game at this point. You proceed to say something here + Show Spoiler + On January 07 2012 17:19 Blurry wrote: I've been trying to figure out why someone would target Tunkeg rather than someone like Probulous (posted the most analysis and was one of the most assertive players thus far). I think this could potentially tell us certain things. Probulous posted his reads on all the players in the game categorizing them by who he thought was town/neutral/mafia. While this does not make him seem any more scummy. My instinct on this is that a player who is mafia is categorized by him as being town and this cover would be useful to the mafia in some way. My other thought is that Tunkeg was pressuring someone that was mafia in a way that made him the biggest threat. He was pressuring Gonzaw and Cephiro and also did a little bit on Sheth. Since Cephiro was already cast under so much suspicion by Probulous I infer that there is a high chance that either Gonzaw or Sheth, or both are scum and am going to re-read their posts thoroughly. My initial instinct is that Sheth is the more likely candidate as he has literally posted zero analysis and has simply pressured or challenged peoples points rather than helping us weed out scum. You assume that mafia targeted Tunkeg for a completely different reason then I believe. You believe its because of his reads on people such as myself / gonzaw and cephiro. You feel like thats why it was him instead of Probulous. I think its just because up to this point Probulous was the most "town" feeling and mafia was worried there was a medic involved. Then you post another bad post here + Show Spoiler + On January 08 2012 22:40 Blurry wrote: Yes I would, and will. #Vote: Liquid'Sheth As to gonzaw's statement of me simply regurgitating information. For the most part that has been true but I've been going by my gut, which is not something you can post when convincing other people to take your side. I've been suspicious of Sheth from the start but don't have the analysis skills to back it up (I know that will read as scummy but bear with me) and write an informed post as to why. If I don't have the evidence to back up my feelings then there is no point in posting it. Whats up with this? Can you explain what your "gut" is and what its saying. As I think someone already brought up (Jitsu?) is that if you can't explain it in reasoning then its probably not a good reason. You then say "If I don't have evidence to back up my feelings there is no point in posting it". Regarding evidence against me. So you don't have any evidence and just a gut feeling on me and your willing to vote so quickly on this. Just this here should have everyone worried. Aren't you finding it suspicious that these lurkers are coming out of no where and willing to just throw their votes onto me because of a gut feeling? Blurry :From what I can see, Leaning Mafia strongly. 9. Gonzaw -- I don't have time to re-read all of your posts. I will do you and Probulous together hopefuly tonight before the end of the day and if I don't, well I'm sure others will. Based on just what I've seen of your posting you seemed like you were posting a lot of fluf and not really taking too many sides. Then you post a "Placeholder" vote on me even though your not convinced. You don't even wait on me to argue my side at all. You and Blurry seem to both be doing this to me. I'm not sure if this is a coincidence, that you both just have to go and blindly will kill me off, but its so bad. Why are you voting for me if you aren't convinced I'm scum. Just from what I've seen I'll say Town-Scum, but I really need to re-filter you more indepth, so this is it for now. Everyone putting your votes on me, please look into Cephiro, Blurry and Cats/Gonzaw . Those are my four scummiest reads, without knowing more about Xeris/Gretorp. Blurry doesn't even respond to him. Seems like a planned bus to me, just a way for Blurry to gain town cred once Sheth flips. And don't come and tell me this is WIFOM shit or something, if you guys believe Cats is scum too then this has to happen too. In the UG games, there's one thing I do to find scum. I see which players don't even talk to each other when not pressured to. I don't mean talk as in just quoting and saying uninteresting filler stuff. I also don't mean mentioning each other, whether to make them suspicious or defend themselves. I mean talk as in arguing with each other, pressuring each other, etc. I think this happened in the previous Newbie game too. Hell, there's a UG game where I found the entire scum team just by doing this, without any other analysis. I'm pretty convinced that works, even more considerably in a newbie game. It is WIFOM, but shit, it's WIFOM that works, just like the ones in the guides all over this place. If you don't think this holds, then there needs to be other highly incriminating/saving evidence towards it.. ##Vote: Blurry Fuck, I'm already like 2 hours reading the thread, responding and shit. Also, I don't like this Cat bandwagon. It just seems so easy to lynch him. But I'll give my thoughts on that when I come home, I'm way in a hurry right now Even longer story short: Filler crap about how it's so bad that a lurker got replaced with another, when it's actually making the game easier for you scummies. This is the point where you've already suspected Blurry is the medic, and he starts pressuring him accordingly, to move on into getting him lynched D3. He also "Doesn't like the Cats bandwagon because it's so easy to lynch him." Nice defense for your scumbuddy there. + Show Spoiler + On January 11 2012 14:32 gonzaw wrote: Why would you assume that? How is it even a "sophisticated plan"? Shit, let's recap the "sophisticated plan": 1)Make a wishy-washy read on one of his scumbuddies 2)When his scumbuddy has a chance to be lynched, bus him 3)As for the reasons for doing it, just say that your previous wishy-washy read was a suspicion on him (1) Isn't even part of any "plan", it's just a regular scum behaviour of "not being sure" about your scumbuddies, in case you need to bus or defend them later on, and so you don't have to pressure them, talk to them, or have anything to do with them in the thread (2)Seems pretty straightforward, I don't need to explain to you why scum would bus each other when one has the chance of being lynched, right? (3)If this is "sophisticated" I'll eat my own ass. It's the easiest way for him to not make an effort in thinking up reasons to bus him. Actually it's stupid too, since eventually someone is bound to reread that and search for that "suspicion from the start" and figure out it's a bunch of fluff. .....what? You want me to "tell you a story"? Do I have to make wild speculations about "what they may have thought" or some shit? What's the point? I am not here to entertain you guys. I won't start my posts with cute images, or format my posts like a book or something, or "tell stories" or whatever you mean. If I do that I waste time doing something unnecessary. Also, what do you mean "where's the scum motivation"? Isn't "be wishy washy about your scumbuddy so you don't pay attention to him, then bus him to gain town cred" enough? Isn't all that sheeping and regurgitation to lynch a townie (cookie/tea) without actually making an effort enough? Isn't all that "I'll emulate how other players post", and "I'm following my gut" to strip away any responsability and pressure from him enough? I think I expanded enough. I already pointed out almost all communication between them (I may have left some bussing from Sheth out though, but all of that can be generalised with the single post I showed). So, what do I have to "expand"? Why can't you do that on your own? Sorry for the aggresiveness, but....really? Why are you so sure Blurry is town? Also, why don't you let him defend himself? You are acting like his babysitter or something, if he's pressured let him react to it goddammit! Your play has been very weird lately Prob, shit. Gonzaw goes on suspecting and pressuring Probu because he keeps defending Blurry from Gonz's accusations. And makes up the most wishy-washy explanations how Blurry is scum ever. + Show Spoiler + On January 12 2012 07:28 gonzaw wrote: + Show Spoiler + On January 12 2012 06:12 Blurry wrote: The idea that me immediately voting for Sheth was somehow a mafia plan to make me innocent in the town's eyes is rather stupid. I am not a good player by any stretch of the imagination so why would he sacrifice himself to try and help make one of the weakest players in the game look more innocent. It was not clear that he was going to be lynched. May I remind you that the vote for him succeeded by just one vote. If I had been scum I would have either feigned inactivity and not voted, or perhaps voted for Cats who was already under a lot of suspicion at that point. Omg lol. So instead of defending yourself against every point of the case against you, you just decide to cling unto WIFOM? lol nice try + Show Spoiler + The idea that me immediately voting for Sheth was somehow a mafia plan to make me innocent in the town's eyes is rather stupid lol no it's not, ever heard of "bussing"? + Show Spoiler + I am not a good player by any stretch of the imagination so why would he sacrifice himself to try and help make one of the weakest players in the game look more innocent You mean, why would Sheth, a scum under A LOT of pressure, who was heading for a lynch, sacrifice 1 vote from his scumbuddy, and bus him so he would make his weak scumbuddy gain town cred so he can try to survive longer? Hmm, let me see, I can't find any reason at all! + Show Spoiler + It was not clear that he was going to be lynched. May I remind you that the vote for him succeeded by just one vote. If I had been scum I would have either feigned inactivity and not voted, or perhaps voted for Cats who was already under a lot of suspicion at that point Great, did Sheth tell you to point this out later if somebody suspected you? This is the shittiest WIFOM ever, just like all the WIFOM you've been pulling out throughout the whole game Here, let me point them out for you: + Show Spoiler + On January 04 2012 11:18 Blurry wrote: The thing to watch for initially is whether or not a role blocker reveals himself. I doubt a role blocker would do anything so early however as they have no idea who to target and successfully cause some harm. WIFOM + Show Spoiler + On January 07 2012 17:19 Blurry wrote: I've been trying to figure out why someone would target Tunkeg rather than someone like Probulous (posted the most analysis and was one of the most assertive players thus far). I think this could potentially tell us certain things. Probulous posted his reads on all the players in the game categorizing them by who he thought was town/neutral/mafia. While this does not make him seem any more scummy. My instinct on this is that a player who is mafia is categorized by him as being town and this cover would be useful to the mafia in some way. My other thought is that Tunkeg was pressuring someone that was mafia in a way that made him the biggest threat. He was pressuring Gonzaw and Cephiro and also did a little bit on Sheth. Since Cephiro was already cast under so much suspicion by Probulous I infer that there is a high chance that either Gonzaw or Sheth, or both are scum and am going to re-read their posts thoroughly. My initial instinct is that Sheth is the more likely candidate as he has literally posted zero analysis and has simply pressured or challenged peoples points rather than helping us weed out scum. HOLY SHIT ENORMOUS USELESS WIFOM + Show Spoiler + On January 11 2012 07:27 Blurry wrote: There is no way that both Gretorp and Xeris were scum because they were totally inactive and it is doubtful that they would have submitted their night actions. My guess with no evidence to back my claims is that its one of those two plus one of the players that has been more active. More WIFOM. + Show Spoiler + On January 12 2012 06:12 Blurry wrote: The idea that me immediately voting for Sheth was somehow a mafia plan to make me innocent in the town's eyes is rather stupid. I am not a good player by any stretch of the imagination so why would he sacrifice himself to try and help make one of the weakest players in the game look more innocent. It was not clear that he was going to be lynched. May I remind you that the vote for him succeeded by just one vote. If I had been scum I would have either feigned inactivity and not voted, or perhaps voted for Cats who was already under a lot of suspicion at that point. And here's the epitome of WIFOM too + Show Spoiler + I am not a good player by any stretch of the imagination so why would he sacrifice himself to try and help make one of the weakest players in the game look more innocent Thank you for reminding me of that. + Show Spoiler + On January 06 2012 00:53 Blurry wrote: Okay, my last post for the day: Staying on CM/Tea as I am still unsure about Cephiro. Other than that, I'm sorry I couldn't contribute more this first day as I am still new to this and am not sure what to look for in terms of reading players but by going over players posts I am getting a good idea and I'm sure my analysis quality will steadily improve over the course of the game. One thing that strikes me looking back at all this is CM voting for CatsinHats. If CM/Tea is indeed scum then I think this provides evidence towards cats not being scum as I dont think CM would have been that meta especially with the holes in his play he has already shown. This can't be assumed however so I would still be suspicious. + Show Spoiler + On January 05 2012 15:32 Blurry wrote: I posted in the same format as Cephiro because I'm new to this and I'm trying to pick up on how this game is played. Thus you will see me emulate some things that other players will do or how they format their analysis. This won't be the first time you will see this. Solid Candidates: Gretorp, Cookiemaker I would probably rather lynch Gretorp because he hasn't said anything To your last point: This is a newbie game, maybe its not obvious. I just want to make sure that people know to claim a RB. You are constantly undermining your own play, saying you are a "weak player"; that you'll "emulate some things other players will do", saying you are "new to this", saying you are "not sure what to look for in terms of reading players", and apologizing yoruself... This is the "newb card" played so straight it hurts.. Of course, you are a "weak player" so we can just ignore you, right? You haven't even responded to any of the other points I made. You are still ignoring me. You have Prob being your babysitter, and nobody's listening to me. You may just think that ignoring me and let town focus on Cats can get you off the hook, since you just have 1 vote on you. But you won't People, it's obvious Blurry is scum, change your vote to him NOW. I'm not sure Cats is scum yet, for a while he's actually contributing, being active, and at least he's fucking trying. We can deal with Cats later, Blurry is far a better lynch, since I'm almost sure he's scum. Cats isn't scum because he is actually trying to contribute -> Plan painting the devious scum as a newbie town picking up his play goes on. This is an awesome quote: "We can deal with Cats later, Blurry is far a better lynch, since I'm almost sure he's scum." Er... yeah right. He just ignores everything Blurry says and calls it WIFOM. Easy analysis? Hell yeah. He then also picks on Blurry for playing the newbie card, but then he lets Cats away with it. Talk about bias.... + Show Spoiler + On January 12 2012 09:32 gonzaw wrote: Wtf is this shit? Just........what? First, does anybody counterclaim? We can't be sure of anything until nobody does. Second, wtf? Let's imagine you are the medic for a second: -You think the best way to deal with the pressure is CLAIMING when you only have 1 VOTE ON YOU!?? Also, everybody is ignoring me, hell even though I wouldn't stop pressuring you, you would have avoided today's lynch anyways, SINCE THERE WAS ONLY 1 HOUR LEFT FOR IT TO END W...T...F? Also, if you are the medic, then that means that you are town, so why on earth wouldn't you respond to pressure? Why wouldn't you respond to the points I made against you? And more importantly, why would I need to make those points in the first place? There is 50% chance there is a medic in this game, you could have easily fake-claimed without having any cc (if there isn't any). This seems unlikely, but my head is full of WTF right now. Until you respond to my points I won't take this into account. SO PLEASE RESPOND TO MY POINTS. Until you do, I'll keep my vote on you, so if you are actually the medic FUCKING DO IT. He keeps calling out Blurry for his bad claiming timing, and says that he won't even consider the possibility that he is the medic if he doesn't respond to his posts. = Easy way out of the responsibility of the lynch. = "I'm not giving up on my plan to get the medic lynched today!" On January 12 2012 09:45 gonzaw wrote: Wait, if my case makes the "most sense"; then why did you defend Blurry against it initially? Also fuck, this is way too unexpected and WE HAVE SO LITTLE TIME. BLURRY; WHY THE FUCK HAVE YOU DONE THIS????? ARGGGG, shit..... + On January 12 2012 09:58 gonzaw wrote: Like I said, until Blurry doesn't respond to me I won't take the medic claim into account. Fucking Blurry, if he's the actual medic this is all his fault. He fucking claims and then DISAPPEARS. FUCK If we don't lynch him, then I don't know who the fuck to lynch. It's too late anyways. "I iz cauzin some confuzions to meik it ezpz" - All over it. On January 12 2012 10:00 gonzaw wrote: It better fucking be I'll go take a shower, and come after the flip... Oh yesh, Probu is about to bow to the mafia. Isn't that what you wanted. On January 12 2012 10:23 gonzaw wrote: FUCK YOU Blurry, REALLY!! So 1 hour before the lynch YOU CLAIM EVEN THOUGH YOU WERE NOT BEING LYNCHED!!!??? THEN YOU FUCKING GO TO "DINNER" AND FORGET ABOUT WHAT YOU'VE JUST DONE!!!!???? Also, Xeris was green all along??? FUkcing shitl And we are at LYLO tomorrow NO MATTER WHAT!?????? ARGGGGGH, I'M SO FUCKING PISSED RIGHT NOW!!!! Enter fake-rage mode. I think you are so sure of your win that you aren't even concentrating here anymore.... + Show Spoiler + On January 12 2012 11:05 gonzaw wrote: You are still caught up in that Jitsu WIFOM shit I see, for fucks sake.. Also NOW you are going to look into my filter? For fucks sake can people please stop doing this? Everybody's "Oh, I'll look gonz filter", "Oh, the dead guy said he was going to look at gonz's filter". It's annoying as fuck. If you are going to read my filter DON'T FUCKING ANNOUNCE IT LIKE IT'S THE MTV AWARDS OR SOME SHIT, JUST FUCKING DO IT Yes you should, that's the reason I posted that in the first place, SO PEOPLE WOULD FUCKING USE IT!!!! And you should use it with every other player as well, and every other player should use it with you and everybody else... For fucks sake... Gonz's play from here on can be described with one word: "Fuck." On January 12 2012 11:32 gonzaw wrote: *sigh* I was fairly sure Blurry was scum, and had hoped Xeris would flip red too, I didn't pay much attention to everybody else by that point. Fuck, now I need to reread everything *sigh* Also, that whole filter thing does indeed annoy me. And Jitsu was fucking stupid for not posting his thoughts before the night ended. Fake depression time. "I r so desperatez bcuz I messed up " "Wai people blame me???" | ||
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On January 15 2012 09:17 CatsnHats wrote: There is nothing to post, Cephiro. It's up to bkrow to break the tie and decide who to lynch. If he doesn't vote, we (the town) lose. I hope he votes. I would rather lose because he voted for me rather than lose because he didn't vote at all. Well hell. I don't even know what to say to this ._. You're totally giving up? Why didn't you even try to respond my case at any point... | ||
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That's not something we should rely on, as there is only a bit over 10 minutes to go on. | ||
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On January 15 2012 09:48 CatsnHats wrote: I've already told you I can't respond to your case against me, especially with only 15 minutes left. It's an airtight case on how I flip-flopped in the early game. I've already explained why I did that. My early play clouded your judgement and now you see everything I do through the goggles of me being scum. It's easy to use WIFOM to prove someone's scum after they have so much early evidence against them. Instead of seeing how I improved, you see me executing an elaborate ruse as a mafia player. You are giving me way to much credit if you truly believe that. So this is the last option for me, force the tie and let bkrow decide. I have admit that you've improved, but as I said, I'm more confident it's an act than reality. Why am I so sure about that? Even if you think that the case is airtight and you can't defend yourself, you could still have tried to provide more content on others, but you haven't. You pretty much relied on the one case you made on Paperscraps earlier, and you didn't even bother trying to make a Gonzaw, just saying it's so obvious. That doesn't really make you look any better. Also, forcing a tie if bkrow isn't going to show up is basically a no-lynch = Mafia wins. | ||
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5 minutes to go. But bkrow, please rethink your opinion while you can. I think you're about to hammer the vote in such matter that we're about to lose. :/ | ||
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No hard feelings anyone! | ||
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On January 15 2012 10:07 Liquid`Sheth wrote: Well played guys <3 Cephiro our plan was perfect and you and Gonz played it perfectly. <3 Well played Sheth <3 Thank you for your sacrifice! Was a pleasure playing with you! | ||
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I hope everyone else had fun as well! | ||
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But since I chose to not read guides but learn the game by playing, Probu's first-day case on me actually helped my play a lot. I realized why pressuring people is much more important than finding town reads, a knowledge that I used to try to confirm myself as a townie later on. It's too bad there were some inactives affecting the result slightly, but it was a really enjoyable game indeed. It was also a lot of fun to read the observer QT afterwards. | ||
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On January 15 2012 11:12 wherebugsgo wrote: I caught Cephiro day 1 but I barely read the thread, to be honest. I'll come up with some thoughts once I've had time to read the last 10-20 pages or however many I haven't read yet. I think everyone caught me on day 1, but I managed to convince surprisingly many the opposite after that. Will be looking forward to your and the "game analysis", or thoughts of other experienced players as well. | ||
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On January 15 2012 11:27 gonzaw wrote: I don't think each scum member was any less or any better than the other. This. We played perfectly for the team. (Well, obviously we had flaws in our play, but pretty much all of our play was based on our plans as a team.) With anyone missing it wouldn't have worked out. So great job everyone! | ||
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