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Blazinghand
United States25553 Posts
[b]Ok so if you do a little math, you'll realize that it's super important that we A) lynch an angel today and B) shoot a demon overnight. The angels might even be interested in doing it. If we fail to kill a demon or a corrupted townie before day 5, the demons will enter day 5 with 4 votes, and there will be as few as 7 players left at this point if we lynch a townie/angel, the angel stabs a townie, and the demon hunter kills a townie.
In other words, the demons could win as early as tomorrow if we do it wrong.
Alternatively, if we lynch one demon and have the demon hunter kill the other, the angels will kill a townie and we'll enter day 5 with 7 players, 2 of whom are angels, 5 of whom are town. if the acolyte is dead, it's a 1-kp single faction mafia game from that point out.
So, the real question is: Is the acolyte alive? because if the acolyte is alive, we could enter day 5 with 6 players, 2 of whom are angels, 4 of whom are town and may be vulnerable to corrupted kills or dark power kills from the acolyte.
I'm thinking the acolyte is dead because of the twisting yesterday. If the acolyte is alive, town is in serious trouble with the "let's try to get rid of the demons" plan. If the acolyte is dead, killing the AoD and puts us in a strong position, but only if the DH can shoot a demon.
Does this sound right?
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Blazinghand
United States25553 Posts
Oh and in the "ideal scenario", which is lynch an angel, demon hunter stabs a demon, we enter day 5 with:
2 corrupted townies, 1 demon, 1 angel, 3 townies
even in that scenario, we're forced to team up with the angel to try to take out the very strong demon faction.
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Blazinghand
United States25553 Posts
Suddenly this game doesn't seem so demon-disfavored after all.
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Blazing what do you think of seer claiming his reads? Town is pretty much at lylo today.
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Blazinghand
United States25553 Posts
It depends what he's got, honestly. I think if he had 2 angel reads he'd have claimed already. If he has 3 "not angel" reads, it depends on how scummy they are also, doesn't it? like if we can use these to identify demons that's great. If he has 1 angel read, that's possibly "good enough" at this point-- we could lynch that angel, have the demonhunter shoot layabout and the remaining angel go for one of the remaining demons, or if that can't be worked out, kill me so we enter tomorrow with:
1 live angel (AoD or the observer with the gun that can't kill the demonhunter), 1 corrupted townie from night 4, 1 live demon, possibly the wister, and 4 live townies.
This will put us in a situation where there are 2 demon votes, 1 angel vote, 4 town votes, and 1 angel KP.
However, it will require the cooperation of the last angel and the demon hunter to "split fire" so that we kill at least one demon vote between layabout and me, keeping the twister from using it to block a shot.
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Blazinghand
United States25553 Posts
Of course all this depends on the seer not being a dead syllogism.
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@BH what do you think of mass roleclaiming?
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Blazinghand
United States25553 Posts
The other option we have is to openly ask an angel to claim-- we lynch the angel then the remaining angel splits fire with the demon hunter between me and layabout. This can be done if Syllogism was the Seer. The angels *MAY* agree to this because if they don't, there's a high chance the demons just win. they probably won't if the acolyte is somehow alive, and just try to kill both me and layabout themselves tonight.
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I want us to lynch Dirkzor today imo.
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Blazinghand
United States25553 Posts
On January 16 2012 21:12 Bluelightz wrote:
@BH what do you think of mass roleclaiming?
It depends what roles are left in the game. We've had a couple masked flips, and I don't like the idea of some scum who saw the inside of a masked flip taking the town wherever they want, especially if the acolyte is alive. It might be more facile just to directly ask a faction for help in weakening another faction.
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Blazinghand
United States25553 Posts
On January 16 2012 21:14 Blazinghand wrote:Show nested quote +On January 16 2012 21:12 Bluelightz wrote:
@BH what do you think of mass roleclaiming? It depends what roles are left in the game. We've had a couple masked flips, and I don't like the idea of some scum who saw the inside of a masked flip taking the town wherever they want, especially if the acolyte is alive. It might be more facile just to directly ask a faction for help in weakening another faction.
On the other hand, we/someone shoudl sit down and work out how a mass roleclaim would work out with all possibilities of masked flips being X, Y, and Z, and also what possibilites there are for scum faleclaiming during this in different ways.
I doubt there's a safe way to mass roleclaim at this point.
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Blazinghand
United States25553 Posts
Am I the only one realizing how close we are to being bonerized right now?
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Reading through syllo's filter, I don't really see any breadcrumbs (unless you count his read against Zeph). So he's probably not the sage. And he's not the demon hunter either; on night 3, spaackle died. Syllo already said he thought Tyrran and Grackaroni are the last demons so he obviously would have hit the DH.
So syllo is a VT.
Channeler is dead.
So we have the following roles now
Seer - outed, HoD, only read is Grackaroni as not demon though.
Demon Hunter - outing him does nothing for town, since it was clear who his targets were (Palmar/Cwave/Spaackle)
Sage - Potentially 3 angel reads, hopefully we have a live angel read among them
Corrupted townie - Outed, blazinghand, has one non-dark read for us to use.
If sage has 1 angel read and 2 other non-angel reads, with Blazinghand's non-dark read and HoD's Grackaroni non-demon read, as well as an extra read during this night cycle (assuming angels kill sage here, sounds like the most reasonable thing to do), we can lynch an angel tonight, have the DH hit layabout, and come out in a decent positon on day 5.
So yes, I think the sage should claim. Not the DH though.
Now, back to old fashioned scumhunting instead of talking about the setup. blazinghand, what do you think of Dirkzor as our lynch target today? I made a small case on him during night 3.
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Blazinghand
United States25553 Posts
sorry REfallen I haven't read his filter or your case in detail. It's 5 am here so I'm going to bed. I hope there's a new flurry of posts while I'm asleep :D
alright gentlemen I think we should look for a way to lynch an angel and shoot a demon / demon vote. nobody claim unnecessarily.
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On January 16 2012 20:49 Refallen wrote:
Jackal where are you?
Just got to work and getting caught up.
Layabout - Wtf is up with your vote. BH is so freaking town it's not even funny. Your vote hits me as a PSA from scum screaming "here I am"
On January 16 2012 21:13 Blazinghand wrote:
The other option we have is to openly ask an angel to claim-- we lynch the angel then the remaining angel splits fire with the demon hunter between me and layabout. This can be done if Syllogism was the Seer. The angels *MAY* agree to this because if they don't, there's a high chance the demons just win. they probably won't if the acolyte is somehow alive, and just try to kill both me and layabout themselves tonight.
If RoL was an Angel they might. If RoL was Channeler and there are still 3 Angels remaining I wouldn't count on it.
I'm gonna call it now. Dirkzor and Layabout are the Demons. Bluelightz is an Angel. I have no clue yet as to who the remaining one or two are.
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On January 16 2012 22:36 Jackal58 wrote:Just got to work and getting caught up. Layabout - Wtf is up with your vote. BH is so freaking town it's not even funny. Your vote hits me as a PSA from scum screaming "here I am" Show nested quote +On January 16 2012 21:13 Blazinghand wrote:
The other option we have is to openly ask an angel to claim-- we lynch the angel then the remaining angel splits fire with the demon hunter between me and layabout. This can be done if Syllogism was the Seer. The angels *MAY* agree to this because if they don't, there's a high chance the demons just win. they probably won't if the acolyte is somehow alive, and just try to kill both me and layabout themselves tonight. If RoL was an Angel they might. If RoL was Channeler and there are still 3 Angels remaining I wouldn't count on it. I'm gonna call it now. Dirkzor and Layabout are the Demons. Bluelightz is an Angel. I have no clue yet as to who the remaining one or two are.
I actually think Dirkzor is an angel, and Layabout is a demon. No idea about bluelightz.
Do you agree that we need to lynch an angel today? Also, following that, do you think sage should claim today?
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QUOTE]On January 16 2012 22:41 Refallen wrote:
On January 16 2012 22:36 Jackal58 wrote:Just got to work and getting caught up. Layabout - Wtf is up with your vote. BH is so freaking town it's not even funny. Your vote hits me as a PSA from scum screaming "here I am" Show nested quote +On January 16 2012 21:13 Blazinghand wrote:
The other option we have is to openly ask an angel to claim-- we lynch the angel then the remaining angel splits fire with the demon hunter between me and layabout. This can be done if Syllogism was the Seer. The angels *MAY* agree to this because if they don't, there's a high chance the demons just win. they probably won't if the acolyte is somehow alive, and just try to kill both me and layabout themselves tonight. If RoL was an Angel they might. If RoL was Channeler and there are still 3 Angels remaining I wouldn't count on it. I'm gonna call it now. Dirkzor and Layabout are the Demons. Bluelightz is an Angel. I have no clue yet as to who the remaining one or two are.
I actually think Dirkzor is an angel, and Layabout is a demon. No idea about bluelightz.
Do you agree that we need to lynch an angel today? Also, following that, do you think sage should claim today?[/QUOTE]
HoD already claimed sage???????? Whether he is telling the truth has yet to be determined.
If RoL was an Angel I see the Demons as being more of a danger to us than Angels. If there are 3 Angels remaining yes we need to lynch one today. HoD may still be the AoD but if he is the Sage we need to keep him around at all costs.
If he is AoD and Wiggles, RoL or Syllo was Sage we're pretty much fucked anyways.
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Quote Fail.
"I actually think Dirkzor is an angel, and Layabout is a demon. No idea about bluelightz. Do you agree that we need to lynch an angel today? Also, following that, do you think sage should claim today?"
Should be inside your quote.
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Denmark1944 Posts
On January 16 2012 08:30 Refallen wrote:
You know, I apologize if it seems like I'm not putting any effort into the game. I actually check this thread every 10-20 minutes when I'm awake. Perhaps it seems I am inactive because I'm asleep during the time where everyone is posting, and that's frustrating tome too.
Right now, I find many people suspicious, and it's kind of frustrating for me. Spaackle/Bluelightz/Dirkzor/Tyrran seem to me to be all good targets for a lynch or a night hit.
I'll focus on Dirkzor for this post though.
-> Goes ballistic at syllo after the Erandorr switch
And?
Show nested quote +I'm looking through Cwave's filter.
He looks fishy. Not only for saying he thinks i'm scum several times with the only reasoning is a weak ass "case" about my first post and because It found a difference in the OP and Zbot vote count post. But more so because he havent said anything else the entire first day. He have spend the entire day 1 pointing out the obvious:
RoL arent posting,
Jackal have done nothing but hate palmar (But i must admit i found his post on Jackal amusing =))
He haven't taken a stance on anything and voted Erandorr with the reason that he is lurking.
I'll keep an eye on him... Cwave was town, but whatever, this dosen't say much, many people thought Cwave was scummy.
But you added it anyway because?
Show nested quote +See, all i have is your word for it.
But i guess we can lynch him and if he flips town we lynch you... This is a really scummy statement to make.
Why?
Show nested quote +Hokay. Finally something i can actually respond to. Why would I defend palmar if we are on the same team? Especially when several people already want to lynch him. The chance for palmar to get lynched are relativly high as I see it, so if he flips scum and i defended him I could just aswell have voted to lynch myself.
I'm very unsure about palmar at the moment and i have yet to see a case which is not "This is not Town palmar". Besides that there aren't really anything against him. I don't know the meta on you guys so i have no clue. Thats why i asked syllo a few times about his opinion on palmar.
What does strike me about palmar is that he shifted gear mid day 1. He posted a lot more and became more agressive after being called out on not doing exactly that. The case wiggles made kinda fell a part because wiggles lied (intentionally or not, that was one of the few parts that were not meta).
Which leaves me with a null read on palmar.
And i don't see how my argument against syllo is stupid. If he knows him aswell as he saids then there are 2 possibilities if Palmar flip town:
1) Syllo don't know him as well as he thought
2) Syllo lied and he is scum. Tries to defend Palmar, and yet adds a disclaimer that he wouldn't defend Palmar if they were on the same scum team. What townie does that?
This post was not a defence of palmar. It was me saying that I did not know about palmer because all cases made against was purely meta at that point. Something I don't know about and can not argue for or against. The answer to your question: A townie that is very confused why the vets are saying "he is 100% scum" when i can't see that. If we took Palmars posts up until this point compared to, lets say, Bluelightz, palmar actually looked good. The case on Palmar was only because people knew from before which I dont.
I think RoL is a stupid lynch. I think it was syllo who wrote that you have to consider why a person suggest a plan. I honestly believe that RoL think it is a good plan and that is why he is fighting for it so much. The plan is well thought out and well delivered. RoL seems to think the blues are dispossable for 4 confirmed townies leaving us with a 5/13 scum scenario instead of 5/17. I disagree and would rather go 5/17 with blue support.
From this To this, when it is clear that everyone was hopping on the RoL/HoD bandwagon. Yup, I think he might be RoL's teammate.
Lets add timestamps on those quotes:
On January 11 2012 03:38 Dirkzor wrote:
I think RoL is a stupid lynch. I think it was syllo who wrote that you have to consider why a person suggest a plan. I honestly believe that RoL think it is a good plan and that is why he is fighting for it so much. The plan is well thought out and well delivered. RoL seems to think the blues are dispossable for 4 confirmed townies leaving us with a 5/13 scum scenario instead of 5/17. I disagree and would rather go 5/17 with blue support.
I agree that he was inactive the first day serving us excuses, but thats about all he have done wrong if you disregard his plan and defence thereof.
On January 15 2012 02:07 Dirkzor wrote:
The way I see it is that HoD and RoL is both a lynch i can support.
Are you kidding me? 4 Days between the posts and A LOT happened during those days regarding RoL. Also you only quoted the part where i gave my opinion of RoL. What about the rest of the posts where I point out my reasoning.
Your case is horrible which is why i never answered it in the first place.
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EPT
