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On January 06 2012 04:39 bumatlarge wrote:Show nested quote +On January 06 2012 02:48 Meapak_Ziphh wrote: I obviously knew that kita was going to disagree with my analysis of him, but I'd like to hear what Bum and RoL think. Bum do you still think I'm most likely to be scum? If so, what problems do you have with me that you don't have with kita. Same with RoL, what is wrong with my kita analysis that makes bum a better lynch?
I've been reading the thread again and I'm feeling very confident that kita is scum at this point. No, you are not my top candidate for scum, and if RoL would just set off my role condition I would feel a lot better about him. I am town, no you fucking fuck.
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On January 06 2012 02:48 Meapak_Ziphh wrote: I obviously knew that kita was going to disagree with my analysis of him, but I'd like to hear what Bum and RoL think. Bum do you still think I'm most likely to be scum? If so, what problems do you have with me that you don't have with kita. Same with RoL, what is wrong with my kita analysis that makes bum a better lynch?
I've been reading the thread again and I'm feeling very confident that kita is scum at this point. I am going to read, collect my thoughts post my final decision and stick with that. I liked your analysis but I want to see how it fits in context of L/Syllogism/WBG Posting.
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On January 06 2012 08:51 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote:Show nested quote +On January 06 2012 04:39 bumatlarge wrote:On January 06 2012 02:48 Meapak_Ziphh wrote: I obviously knew that kita was going to disagree with my analysis of him, but I'd like to hear what Bum and RoL think. Bum do you still think I'm most likely to be scum? If so, what problems do you have with me that you don't have with kita. Same with RoL, what is wrong with my kita analysis that makes bum a better lynch?
I've been reading the thread again and I'm feeling very confident that kita is scum at this point. No, you are not my top candidate for scum, and if RoL would just set off my role condition I would feel a lot better about him. I am town, no you fucking fuck.
I think you read that the wrong way. I was implying that I think kitaman is the most likely scum. When meapak brought up the whole L thing, I read that day over again, and it doesn't appear as it did then that kita was breaching new ground here. While I was the only one to actually vote L, multiple townies showed interest in actually lynching L (prphlz, but is attention was on RoL, and sheth, who up until last lynch I thought he was scum). Kita had about an hour to realize that L had 3 serious townie votes behind him, while RoL had a whopping 2 townies on him while the other 2 were scum. It seems much more possible to Kita as scum that positioning himself for L getting lynched is extremely profitably at this point. Kita selling out L is now much easier to hear with alot of flipped fellows on the field.
We need to come to a decision some time, the worst I can be is wrong! Hopefully Mafia decides to shoot someone tonight. Maybe I might get roleblocked!
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On December 24 2011 08:29 wherebugsgo wrote: also, I should note, that because of this, I now very strongly believe either Chezinu is lying about that RB, or that there exist at least two roleblocking roles in the game. From what Foolishness has said, I am certain scum roleblocked GM.
Chezinu might have been roleblocked by a town roleblocker yesterday, if this is true. He could also be scum. As of now I don't believe Chezinu is scum.
To the players who believe Chezinu is scum: (i.e. prplhz) please provide a detailed case as to why you believe he is scum and not town. I will do my own rereading of Chezinu's posts, to see if I have missed anything. I don't think I have, though, seeing as I've read the thread at least 3 times now (not hard, seeing as no one is doing anything)
On December 28 2011 11:54 wherebugsgo wrote: feel better about him than I do about Foolishness or Chezinu!
Upon rereading I think RoL has been acting rather town-like. The GM business doesn't make sense unless GM was RBed. We don't know that for sure unless Chezinu is lying or trolling. This is the problem atm.
So, we lynch one of Foolishness/Chezinu tomorrow IMO. I guess if there's a convincing argument for RoL being scum I'd be willing to lynch him too. Chezinu very well could be lying/trolling. He did nothing today, though he did more day 1. His activity dropped off like a scum's would. At first I didn't believe he was lying. Now I'm more willing to entertain that idea.
also my bad, I'm playing LoL :p I got back from jury duty and I feel lazy.
On December 28 2011 18:50 syllogism wrote: Well at least one out of RoL and Chezinu is definitely mafia. I would like to hear from Chezinu first but the situation has been covered quite adequately above.
This confirms Meapak pretty much. You can all read for yourself and interpret, after reading all this I am lazy.
On December 28 2011 23:24 syllogism wrote:Show nested quote +On December 28 2011 23:04 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote:On December 28 2011 18:50 syllogism wrote: Well at least one out of RoL and Chezinu is definitely mafia. I would like to hear from Chezinu first but the situation has been covered quite adequately above. Are you claiming alignment cop or something? How do you know one of us is definitely scum? Chezinu claimed RB on n1, so either he is lying and thus scum or he was RBed and then there is no good explanation for you to be alive unless there is a scum medic. I guess it's possible that GM didn't actually hit you or his shot doesn't go through if the target is town, but both scenarios require poor play on GMs part; he specifically said that his role is the same as LSB's, who heavily implied that his shot goes through regardless of the alignment of the target.
On December 29 2011 07:01 syllogism wrote: Bum how does the scum team consisting of role blockers make sense considering that only one person has claimed RB so far and last night there were 6 deaths, of which only one was claimed. None of the living players claimed RB, so even assuming foolishness was RBed, that's three missing role blocks.
Given the weird n1 kills I think it's more likely that scum also has some sort of KP roles that punish "bad" play or something similar. A scum medic also makes more sense than more than 1 RBer due to the missing RB claims. Two role blockers is possible but lynching people or clearing people based on that assumption in LYLO is very weak/scummy.
I would also infer this to mean there is only 1 RB, he is assuming there has to be a scum medic and ignoring the 2RB scenario which isn't that unlikely, then just dismissing it.
But I have made a decision. I agree with you meapak, Kitaman is our last scum so I will be voting him tomorrow. My next post will detail a bit more, but upon reading all the dead mafia, they seem to implicate Kitaman way more.
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So this looks pretty unanimous then, we all are voting kitaman tomorrow anyway. After my next post I am not changing my mind or thinking about this anymore and am moving to purgatory mafia full time, so let me bang that out then post my vote at 12 and go AFK.
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Well you sure didnt waste anytime :D
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kitaman27
United States9244 Posts
What happened to this bum? Meapak's analysis wasn't groundbreaking. He was essentially summarizing the game, to support a conclusion he came to before the post was written. Does your reasoning about why you thought I was town the entire game suddenly no longer apply? I'm not scum.
On January 03 2012 06:27 bumatlarge wrote:Show nested quote +On January 03 2012 05:37 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote:On December 31 2011 04:22 bumatlarge wrote:On December 31 2011 03:59 Liquid`Sheth wrote:On December 31 2011 02:54 bumatlarge wrote: I doubt kita is scum. He has had extremely similar play to myself if you disregard the chez era. Sure L, could have been a bus, but if we were both scum, we could have simply unvoted without fear and won the game? If only one of us, then Chez obviously take precedence.
I never hinted at chez being confirmed town at all. Just the oposite. I just feel bad for meapak. He didn't hammer a vote on to L, which seems rather straightforward if there are already 5 townies on L. Anyone not pushing meapak tomorrow needs to share with the class. This is something that I disagree with. If you all took your votes off, there would have been a no-lynch on l. Then its 5-3 at night, you'll have two KP. However town now KNOWS who the 3 are. I didn't say this earlier, because I was hoping they would do this. So hopefully town has 1-2 shots of their own. So at the end of the night its probably 3-2 town ahead, which leads to a 3-1 town after the lynch and then 2-1, and town wins. Thats with only 1 kp vig shot. Just pointing out I think your logic is wrong bum, and you pointing that out as logic for why your not mafia is scary to me. Your reads are also a bit weird, why do you say "everyone else" : who cares. I care about each and every one of you. :/ Why would I care who is town? The object of the game is to oust scum, not figure out who is town. If they aren't on my radar, then I really don't see a reason to worry about them. Hopefully isn't a guaranteed town win. If town had no viable shots or mafia has more then 1 roleblocker, we would have got off scott free. And that doesn't explain how kita and I generated the L lynch. The L lynch would not have happened and you guys would have stuck around on the RoL wagon for the rest of the lynch. I don't think there was much reason to go through all this trouble and then have this conversation if we could have been having a post-game conversation. This is stupid. It is much easier to get a town read on someone then it is to get a scum read. By knowing who is TOWN you can narrow town your possibilities of who is actually scum. Scum are trying to not look scummy, but generally only that. They don't tend to jump to the other spectrum because that would start harming their win condition. So there is a huge purpose in recording and acknowledging your town reads, that way you can narrow down the gray area of mafia scumminess. Anyway bum, its pretty much me and you, which of the other two do you find scummy? One of them has to be hiding behind the hit, but its a tough decision. What do you think? I'm not certain on anyone right now. Kita has been constantly active this entire game, and reading his posts more, he has quite a few hiccups in his reads. He goes all over the place, calling Sheth, Foolishness, prphlz, BC, then actual scum in L. I think I need to read more into the L lynch to see if mafia were really "Fuck it, vote L", like syllo did as the 5th person on the wagon. Kita made his read on L very clear an hour after I voted L. Show nested quote +On December 29 2011 06:52 kitaman27 wrote: I'll write something up against L later today. This is a few hours before anyone even mentions L as a lynch target, and it was after a whole response to Sheth's kita analysis. Kita as scum could have just put his vote on Sheth after calling him scummy, but he decides to push L instead. If the scum team was Kita/L/syllo, I don't understand why kita didn't take the easy way out with pushing sheth which I proabably would have gotten behind or jumping on RoL. It explains sheth being roleblocked, if they feared him shooting Kita, but that's all I can reason out. I believe kita did shoot syllo, though Kita didn't mention that he had a strong read on syllo before the shot. Kita has not been posting scared, and all his actions have a very townie perspective, even though he only started getting results late-game, and then he posted everything I was thinking. I'm gonna say Town. Meapak/Chezinu has been a rough read, because a relevant part of the game was played by chezinu who I can't really decipher well, and I pride myself in being a good judge of random posters. Meapak's reads thus far in the game have been a claimed shot on syllo (there was no in-thread analysis, but there was only a night cycle for him to do this), and a sheth lynch, which all of us are guilty of. Other then that, I'm not mustering much townie points in his favor. The abscence of his vote at a lylo scum lynch; a non-refunded shot dual claim on, in my opinion, a less prominent scum; and a random Roleblock claim that has zero reason behind it. Suspicious shifty shit shapes scummy standards. I just need to review RoL again. I'm still hazy on the roleblock thing and what not. L went ballsdeep on RoL (sexy) the day he got lynched. I think we are basing RoL being confirmed based on his BC hit right? Hmmm. It does seem pretty straightforward if during the night you make me out to be superduper town and then shoot me because you aren't a roleblocker. If there was a scum medic, then that would explain both GM and Foolishness missing their hits. No, I am not content in throwing that in the trashcan. Mostly I'm certain Kita is town. If he's not he deserves to win. Kita, I think it's gonna be down to you deciding who is scum between Cheazpak and RoL. I'd probably go with Cheeseypak, because RoL being scum does require him to be a scum-vig (or some awful townie vig) and having a scum medic.
Other players bringing up their willingness to lynch L doesn't mean I'm scum. I'm one of those town that was after L for his scummy play. It's not like I brought up L for the first time during the day three lynch. I was questioning L's play the entire game. You were the first to actually vote L, but I was the only player to ever post an analysis against him. If it were a bus, why did syllo get completely off guard? If we were trying to town cred, why does syllo get left out of the bus and come off looking awful after he is one of the last to finally vote?
On December 22 2011 05:53 kitaman27 wrote: lol what you are you two even arguing about? How is the percentage of games that scum get lynched day one even relevant? Who cares what the percentages are on MS or how the last 20 games have gone? Even if it was really poor odds, you still try to find scum regardless.
L, your Metric post is nice and all, but who exactly did you catch? It's not a very good trap if you don't mention anyone that has fallen for it.
On December 23 2011 01:15 kitaman27 wrote: There were also several other people who disappeared from the discussion, such as L and BC.
On December 23 2011 14:39 kitaman27 wrote:Show nested quote +On December 23 2011 14:32 L wrote: GM seems to have lied about his target in order to lessen the chance that his shot would be medic'd/intercepted/roleblocked/whatevered. His target was probably one of his greens to throw off suspicion, so he probably didn't shoot Jackal. Palmar's shot was claimed.
This means GM either shot VisceraEyes or SamuelLJackson
I'm gonna go back and look through his post list to see if he gave any indication of suspicion with respect to either of them. If that was the case, why in the world would GM not inform us who he really shot after the 12:00 deadline? He had around 20 minutes to share who he really would have shot, during a time which the scum team wouldn't be able to change their actions. Are you purposely trying to shift focus away from RoL or something?
On December 23 2011 15:07 kitaman27 wrote:Show nested quote +On December 23 2011 15:01 L wrote:On December 23 2011 14:39 kitaman27 wrote:On December 23 2011 14:32 L wrote: GM seems to have lied about his target in order to lessen the chance that his shot would be medic'd/intercepted/roleblocked/whatevered. His target was probably one of his greens to throw off suspicion, so he probably didn't shoot Jackal. Palmar's shot was claimed.
This means GM either shot VisceraEyes or SamuelLJackson
I'm gonna go back and look through his post list to see if he gave any indication of suspicion with respect to either of them. If that was the case, why in the world would GM not inform us who he really shot after the 12:00 deadline? He had around 20 minutes to share who he really would have shot, during a time which the scum team wouldn't be able to change their actions. Are you purposely trying to shift focus away from RoL or something? @RoL,did you receive any notification of receiving a hit? Why wouldn't he? Withholding the information until the last second is a hyper pro-town move. Mafia don't need any additional information and his list is perfectly legible when you recognize that he lied about the RoL shot. That doesn't make sense at all. GM knows he is a suicide vig, so why would he leave it a mystery to who he really shot? He knows that it is highly likely that he will die if his shot is wrong. He wouldn't leave us in the dark knowing that he would likely never have a chance to reveal his true target. That wouldn't be a hyper pro-town move in the slightest.
On December 27 2011 13:35 kitaman27 wrote: @L, have you been looking through posts for three days straight or do you just not care? Why does it matter who jackal was suspicious of? I want to know who you are suspicious of.
On December 28 2011 14:03 kitaman27 wrote: L- Seems to be discussing a lot of things that aren't very relevant distracting town. Hasn't given us any solid analysis.
On December 29 2011 07:25 kitaman27 wrote: I think L is scum, either chez or RoL is scum, and either you or syllo is the third.
On December 29 2011 09:22 kitaman27 wrote:Show nested quote +On December 21 2011 13:48 L wrote: Why would I ever give a blue read like that? Because there are 6 people in this game that I consider substantially better than me at reading roles (its really never been my strong point), and given that 25% of the game or more is anti-town, the probability of anti-town having 1 or 2 of those people is excessively high.
List of people that I think are better than me at reading roles for future reference:
1. Foolishness 4. kitaman27 6. SamuelLJackson 13. Chezinu 16. BloodyC0bbler 17. LSB First off, when L is asked about fishing for blue roles, he responds that he did it because other players would have likely caught on. He then proceeded to list the six players better than him at role reading "for future reference". This list is completely irrelevant. He states that 25% of the game being scum means 1-2 of them on the list are probably scum. That is equivalent to selecting six random players and saying 1-2 are scum. He lists me and curu/sandro as being people with better blue reads than him, yet I've only ever played one game with him as a newbie and curu/sandro haven't even played any. He is likely just listing six of the most experienced players and immediately casting doubt on them from the start of the game. Show nested quote +On December 22 2011 00:47 L wrote: RE: Metric I was hoping to be able to say it when I woke up, but the thread's been confirming how I thought the game would roll out since I went to sleep, so I want the trap to sit out there a bit more. Give it another hour and a bit. Next L comes up with this extremely long post about some Metric he came up with for catching scum. He acts as if he set up a trap to catch scum. The one problem? He never mentions anyone that he actually caught. This reminds me exactly of my "trap" in LotR mafia, where I tried to explain that I was trapping scum with the knowledge that I was Radfield's mason partner, yet never actually brought up anyone that I caught. He then proceeds to argue with Palmar about the win rate of town on day one. This is a common theme of L's play this game. He is more than willing to argue about things that have absolutely no impact on the game, yet when it comes to scum hunting, he really doesn't seem to care at all. After that, L decides to give his reads on every single player in the thread. It looks as if he is making a contribution, but he never follows through with any of his reads. The weirdest point comes when L insists that GM lied about his vig target. This makes absolutely no sense. GM posted his shot target when night actions would have been locked. Scum couldn't react to his target, so there is no reason not to post who he was targeting. He argues with me and chaoser that keeping the town in the dark was a good thing, but in reality L is only distracting the town with misdirection. He cares more about figuring out the night actions than finding who is scum. He tries to get himself out of it by asking other people to present a valid explanation of night actions, while knowing that only scum have the ability to know how everything turned out. When pressed for delivering a scum suspect, he promises to contribute later, but never does. He says he was looking through jackals filter and explains who Jackal thought was scum, but never explains who he thinks is scum. He mentions me as a good vig target on night two, without ever bringing me up previously, with his only reasoning being that my posts are "careful". Overall, L is more than willing to talk about things that don't matter, yet has no interest in finding scum. ##Vote L
On December 29 2011 11:18 kitaman27 wrote:Show nested quote +On December 29 2011 09:55 L wrote: RE: Votes on me.
I just read through the thread, and the argument for shooting me is that someone crumbed a shot, then didn't shoot me, ergo I must be mafia.
This is odd for two very short reasons:
1) The exact same thing happened for RoL, who has a mountain of lies and bullshit to his name.
2) It would be very easy to RB foolishness if I was a townie to attempt to train on me the next day and secure the win.
So we're in a position in which mafia needs a SINGLE person from town to disbelieve an open and closed mafia case in front of them in order to defuse the lynch. Who steps up to the plate and tries to softpush me, then realizes he's an idiot and needs to go balls in because his case is terrible? bumatlarge. Who's his mafia cohort in this, a person who was ostensibly going to get vig hit tonight? Kitaman. Both of them have done relatively little for the entire game, both played very concilliatory day 1. Everything fits.
Welp, Kitaman/bumatlarge/RoL for mafia fits pretty well. If Sheth was mafia he'd probably have been replaced quite a while back. Thanks for outting yourselves, buddies. oh so now we're the scum team because we decided to vote for you? How about this one: Show nested quote +On December 22 2011 06:33 L wrote: 15. bumatlarge -- Huge content filled posts designed to spur discussion and an early vote. Very town. bum goes from huge content and very town to doing relatively little and playing very conciliatory? Do you have no comments on the case made against you rather than just calling us scum for bringing it up? You seem to try to pass it off as being the target of Foolishness's shot, but there has been much more than you never address.
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kitaman27
United States9244 Posts
On January 04 2012 01:51 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote: Then I look at Kitaman, he started the lynch on L, but that's not really the important part. Look at the mafias position going into that, it was a 5v3 situation and they needed one last mislynch, L was reaming into me hard trying to force my mislynch it doesn't REMOTELY look like he was setting himself up to get bussed, he was pushing for the end game right there. Instead Kita pushes his lynch and it gets flipped on L. I read him yesterday, but it would require an impeccable scum game from Kita for this read to be wrong and all the things he did be setting up the illusion of being town.
With those two reads I had the process of elimination and that leaves bumatlarge, I could only hope his filter didn't disagree with me, and it didn't. But I have work, so the rest of that comes later.
lol RoL, how quickly you change your mind, even though there has been absolutely no new evidence. Funny how you were suspicious of bum, yet when nobody decided to bite, you never followed through.
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On December 22 2011 06:33 L wrote:Show nested quote +On December 22 2011 05:53 kitaman27 wrote: lol what you are you two even arguing about? How is the percentage of games that scum get lynched day one even relevant? Who cares what the percentages are on MS or how the last 20 games have gone? Even if it was really poor odds, you still try to find scum regardless.
L, your Metric post is nice and all, but who exactly did you catch? It's not a very good trap if you don't mention anyone that has fallen for it.
Foolishness, you seem more than willing to call certain people town, but who is scum? It's a lot easier to defend people, than to attack them. Sorry, got caught up with Palmar. Here's the list: 1. Foolishness -- Actively Hiding, but he's stuck his neck out a few times. Not sure yet. 2. RebirthOfLeGenD -- Quiet 3 . wherebugsgo -- Aggressive and Questioning. 4. kitaman27 -- Aggressive post analysis, but I'm not sure how long you had that liquid sheth picture around. Undecided. 5. syllogism -- Actively Hiding. Leaning towards red. 6. SamuelLJackson (sandroba/curu hybrid) -- I have no idea how to read hydra posts, but he has content posts + early vote. Greenish as far as I can tell. 7. Jackal58 -- Very short posts but lots of questions. Probably trigger hitter. 8. Liquid`Sheth -- BLARING WARNING SIGNS. 9. GMarshal -- Not enough information. Starts off quiet, moves to medium content posts. Early vote. Goes quiet again. Seems like a busy townie. 10. L -- This is me. I am super cool. 11. Mr. Wiggles -- Huge content filled posts. Aggressive voting after building a case. Lots of questions. Probably a trigger hitter. 12. Palmar -- Should be obvious that I am leaning towards mafia on this one. 13. Chezinu -- Proposes a HYPER aggressive roleclaim early, but no one bit. I assume he's town but maybe 20% potential for traitor based on the risk involved. 14. chaoser -- Lots of questions. Large analysis posts. Aggressive early vote on me. Probably another trigger hitter. 15. bumatlarge -- Huge content filled posts designed to spur discussion and an early vote. Very town. 16. BloodyC0bbler -- Not enough posts. I'd really prefer that he posted more and he's one of the reasons I waited. 17. LSB -- Probably the toughest call in the game asides from Palmar. His posts appear large but they're short replies to large quoted text. Additionally, he's been called out before for 'trying really hard to not piss people off' which is a warning light in metric land. He does, however, vote early, but his case isn't very strong. I lean red on him. 18. GGQ -- One substantive post. Same as BC. 19. prplhz -- Short avoidant posts early. RNGs, votes Viscera. Also has a very solid attack post on GMarshal. Aggressiveness indicates town. Post structure indicates busy. 20. VisceraEyes -- Super town. I wanted to put filter links on the names, but I have no idea how to do that quickly. Also not putting additional information regarding roles other than trigger hitters, because DANG BRO, THATS NOT HELPFUL. Also, everyone that's blue isn't blue because they're legit; its possible mafia has trigger hitters. Anyways, go through the list and see what you think. Anyways, I'm now at 22 hours left for 4k words in my term essay, so I will be taking off at the speed of light (meowth, that's right). I'll pop in in a few hours to see what's up, but other than that I can't spare much more time today. So I already said how I am pretty sure the Chez/Meapak combo is town. Then we have to look at this. We see 2/3 mafia exposed on this list, he calls WBG town and syllogism *slightly* red. Then we have BumAtLarge and Kita as green, and unknown respectively. We can assume he probably wouldn't list half his team red this early in the game, but would still want to distance. In that we have the red Syllogism. WBG he avoided going into detail on and called him down with some flatlined reasoning, understandable. But what would he do with pick 3? I think he wanted to go 1-1-1 with his reads and it would be WAY too blatant on BumAtLarge later on to say he is "very town" and obviously on Day 1 (when that post occurred) he didn't foresee our current situation. Also note how his Kita description is the only one with semblance of a joke.
If you read the filter Kita and L also chat a bit back and forth within short timespans of each other on around 2-3 occasions. You also see a much duller version between Syllogism/BumAtLarge but there is much larger time gaps.
On December 30 2011 13:24 L wrote: Oh, so there's a bunch of people actively lurking.
On the plus side, we don't lose immediately when I'm lynched now. So, for night actions: when I flip town, shoot some combination of RoL, Kita and Bum and lynch whomever remains the following day. If you don't hit 2 mafia during the night, we go from 5:3 now to 4:3 after the lynch, then 2:3 after mafia hits, so we'd lose. On the plus side, if people don't derp out and decide to read this post, we might win, but given how poorly the town's playing it would surprise me if we lose regardless.
Anyways, cheerio chaps. With this post he obviously knew he was dying and basically just confirms meapak while incriminating one of the three of us. I know I am town, I can infer bum is town, and I am fiarly sure meapak is town. Kita is the odd man out.
On December 27 2011 14:44 L wrote: RE: Activity.
Sorry, my Christmas plans multiplied pretty quickly because one side of my family had a second celebration on the 26th due to scheduling conflicts with other chunks of the family from which I just got home from.
If I had to push for someone yesterday I'd have gone after GGQ. I was pretty certain with my assessment, but I hadn't put together enough time to outline the full case on him.
RE: BC The recent few posts by BC have been oddly worded, but only if you don't bother reading the first day of the game. He is talking about the breadcrumbing that I (and one other) did early on in the thread. I fully agree with his statement (maybe not to the same extent that he put it), but every claimed role thusfar has been a form of conditional or weakened vig. This also fits with my initial prediction that the concept of responsibility will be a game accellerant.
RE: Night Either way, we might lose tonight if more guns go off in the wrong direction.
We've got four options:
1) Power play: We draw up hit targets and have people volunteer to hit if they can w/ accompanying roleclaims.
2) Hit discuss: We discuss hit targets and let people decide of their own choice if they wish to act on it.
3) Silence + NA: We refuse to talk about potential hits in order to neuter any potential RB action, then hit targets as per private tendencies
4) No night actions: We do any of the above, but hold off on shooting people tonight.
But to be honest we don't have very much time to deliberate over these options. The more pressing matter is who should we shoot and why. I personally don't think BC should be shot, but my gut is telling me that GGQ, Kitaman and Foolishness are probably our best choices for the night.
GGQ's posting contents look scummy on their own, and Jackal, an otherwise unimpressive kill target, points towards him. Kitaman asks a LOT of questions but offers very little content of his own. His posts seem careful and guarded, careful to prod, but not make opponents. Foolishness took day 2 off after a standard non-existent day 1; very atypical play given he normally springs into action D2, but hey, I was afk for the majority of D2 as well.
But see, here's my problem, the main criteria for catching mafia if I'm right about this format being hit driven is activity. Given that we just had ZERO activity out of anyone, I'm kinda up shit's creek about how to understand what happened. I'm going to go reread day 1, because the past 15 pages of the thread are trash. This is the post that did it for me though. Of those 3, two we now know are town, once again I feel he would never post a purely townie list, it feels suspicious to do as mafia, but even more so just three posts before that was his giant list where he didn't have a read on kitaman, yet somehow nothing has changed in his read yet he wants to kill Kitaman? It's not like Sheth and Syllogism someone started looking less scummy at this point.
On December 28 2011 14:58 L wrote:Show nested quote +On December 28 2011 14:35 bumatlarge wrote:3 scum left, so we need all townies on one wagon, so if it's a mislynch we lose? Or wait everyone is a vig :D 2. RebirthOfLeGenD 4. kitaman27 5. syllogism 8. Liquid`Sheth 10. L 13. Chezinu 15. bumatlarge 19. prplhz I'll believe prphlz because WBG ended up being scum and was hounding him. L I think might be a pretty good lynch, foolishness shot him, and because all townies are vigis, roleblocking is probably an issue. Bat sense tell me this makes L scum. People need to not shoot people so much  Wait, what? Who did what to me now? This doesn't feel like it was scripted or done purposely in any way.
On December 30 2011 14:31 L wrote:Show nested quote +On December 30 2011 14:16 bumatlarge wrote: Fuck L you know how to worry the shit of people. :D GL everyone! This just feels natural and unscripted as well.
With that, I'm outie yo. Ver end the day early so we can vote and finally end this.
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On January 06 2012 12:46 kitaman27 wrote:Show nested quote +On January 04 2012 01:51 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote: Then I look at Kitaman, he started the lynch on L, but that's not really the important part. Look at the mafias position going into that, it was a 5v3 situation and they needed one last mislynch, L was reaming into me hard trying to force my mislynch it doesn't REMOTELY look like he was setting himself up to get bussed, he was pushing for the end game right there. Instead Kita pushes his lynch and it gets flipped on L. I read him yesterday, but it would require an impeccable scum game from Kita for this read to be wrong and all the things he did be setting up the illusion of being town.
With those two reads I had the process of elimination and that leaves bumatlarge, I could only hope his filter didn't disagree with me, and it didn't. But I have work, so the rest of that comes later. lol RoL, how quickly you change your mind, even though there has been absolutely no new evidence. Funny how you were suspicious of bum, yet when nobody decided to bite, you never followed through. That was before I read Syllogism, WBG, and L and I didn't read the whole L lynch on context and I am not going to, Meapak's analysis of it also makes sense, especially since I doubt you guys assumed syllogism was going to get killed. If he didn't you would of been in a great position post bus with Sheth lined up to die and then you just needing one hit after that and it's game over.
Just so you get that math, it was 5-3, killing L makes 5-2, we aren't sure, but we can pretend mafia KP is 1 which makes it 4-2 by morning and Sheth as a free lynch makes it 3-2 going into night, meaning you win when you kill and tie it 2-2. But instead Syllogism went down and shit hit the fan.
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kitaman27
United States9244 Posts
You mention how bum's filter supported your idea that he was scum and you were going to post an analysis, yet now you're talking about how you can infer he is town.
Meapak/bum, you haven't really even commented on RoL, rather than just saying he is probably town. Could you please be more specific. If we mislynch me, the game is over so are either of you even willing to listen to my arguments? I'm town and if I'm going to lose my lynch virginity after 25 games, I at least want it to be as scum. I've gotten two of the four scum killed and proved that I'm active and care about town. What more do I need to do?
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United States2186 Posts
Day 6?
Chezinu dragged Meapak_ziphh into the Insane Asylum.
48 hours to lynch at max. However, as there's only 3 people left, we can certainly end day quicker. Let me know.
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kitaman27
United States9244 Posts
LOL kita must be scum! Meapak got shot! *wink wink*
Was that your hit bum or were you roleblocked again?
The most frustrating part is how much time I've spent on his game, compared to RoL who hardly seems to have read the thread. I've been keeping an updated spreadsheet of notes and connections, re-reading the thread multiple times, and openly sharing my reads. Yes, I wrong wrong the first two days, but eventually I came around and hit two in a row. I've helped kill 50% of the scum in this game. Is there anything that I can do to change either of your minds? I'll take the time to post one final analysis if you guys are willing to listen tomorrow.
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WE WILL GO WITH THE ZIPH. ##Vote: Kitaman27 I'd give your time to write Kita, but I said earlier I am not thinking anymore. We can assume bum will vote with me if he's scum, so if you want Ver just hammer it now and end this.
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kitaman27
United States9244 Posts
So you don't care, at LYLO? lol you are so not town.
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If bum comes back and decides he wants to hear you then I will pay attention, but until then I am keeping my vote here. If he hammers, he hammers and I won't change my vote. If in that time you want to write out your thing no one is going to stop you.
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Sorry, Kita. I actually shot at RoL last night, because if he was scum I think he might have not roleblocked me. Anyway, I don't think he can be a roleblocker and still have pulled off that BC shot without being a scumvig.
Since meapak is dead it makes kita's "hit" on syllo look pretty bad. ##Vote: Kitaman27 I haven't been keeping track of how many scum I've killed kita, and neither has RoL.
Basically if RoL is mafia, this is gonna be Insane Mafia 2 all over again. Oh well. Commence hammer Ver.
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kitaman27
United States9244 Posts
bum, look at it his way: Mafia has absolutely nothing to gain from not roleblocking you. RoL knows you are the only vig alive. With him being in such a strong position today, it makes little sense that he would risk being shot. Instead, he rb's you and goes for the safer mislynch today.
If you did indeed shoot RoL then at least you're willing to listen to a case if I wrote one? There must be a reason you decided to shoot RoL instead of me right?
Here are all the notes I have taken this game. It might not change your mind, but I'm desperate to prove that I'm really town. If you're the scum, please just let me know so we can save everyone some time. I'd be willing to hammer myself if that were the case. Otherwise, let me write up my final case tomorrow.
[*]Foolishness's filter [*]RebirthOfLeGenD's filter [*]wherebugsgo's filter [*]kitaman27's filter [*]syllogism's filter [*]SamuelLJackson's filter [*]Jackal58's filter [*]Liquid`Sheth's filter [*]GMarshal's filter [*]L's filter [*]Mr. Wiggles's filter [*]Palmar's filter [*]Chezinu's filter [*]chaoser's filter [*]bumatlarge's filter [*]BloodyC0bbler's filter [*]LSB's filter [*]GGQ's filter [*]prplhz' filter [*]VisceraEyes's filter
Liars: bum: made up responsibility points chez: "Ver is not one to try and eliminate bad play" LSB: Fake claiming role, as evidenced by GM's counter claim hydra: "At this point I'd rather lynch Chezinu or Foolishness", yet still votes for LSB even after mentioning how LSB's claim makes no sense as scum Sheth: Claims to be on sleeping drugs, yet posting in other thread and streaming. Proof? syllo: "Leaning scum based on my last read, I'll probably have time to reread him later today...never mentions me as scum in an earlier read, setting himself up for mislynch at lylo" Meapak: "Hi all, I just got to the part where chez claimed rb. That was false just for the record. Chez never got RB'd"
Foolishness (vig) ### -trolling, lists Ver as giant wall of text, supporting BC -"Ignore Chezinu, silence bugs, kill L" -Soft defends L for his vote on palmar -http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=295384¤tpage=28#541 -Lists four people that will call him out. Traitor attempting to contact scum team? -"Please remember, mafia are given a list of blues AND their role description" scumslip? -Spammy -"I'm fairly confident that if GM lied about who he shot then he breadcrumbed the real victim in his post." -Distractionary tactic, why would GM lie if he posted when mafia couldn't change their actions? -Posts analysis against bugs -Breadcrumbs L shot
RoL -Never returns after placeholder on chez, never comments on LSB -Mentions multiple times how GM's missed shot means he is confirmed, attempts to argue that GM's role is different than LSB's -Analysis against BC
bugs ### -analysis against LSB, posting confident -talking about SK -Supports LSB lynch even after claim -Soft defends BC -OMGUS on foolishness
syllo -soft defends GM -calls bugs case stupid but votes LSB anyways -prpl looks exactly like his town play -non-committal on L lynch, votes him when forced to by rest of town http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=295384¤tpage=52#1035 -"Leaning scum based on my last read, I'll probably have time to reread him later today"
sandro/curu ### -random bible quote: Ezekiel 25:17 traitor? -drops case on chez rather quickly, jumps on bug's lsb analysis -hard defends palmar -supports LSB lynch, but not with confidence -Mentions how LSB's claim makes no sense as scum, yet still wants to lynch him ***
jackal ### -shoots down chez policy lynch -questions chezinu about possible scum slip -jumps on LSB for "no day 1 vet lynch", doesn't address bugs anaylsis -wants to kill Foolishness. GMarshall GGQ for information -Strongly opposing the GM lynch for LSB instead, even though he calls GM scum
Sheth -soft defends hydra/chez -posting in election mafia, but not here -weak vote on LSB at the last minute -mentions that he is sick multiple times and unable to post, yet he is streaming sc2 -Incredibly forced analysis against myself. Brings up several irrelevant points. Only real analysis all game. -After providing analysis against me, votes RoL. Doesn't vote me at all. *** -Last on L lynch
GMarshal (Justice vigilante) ### -hydra policy vote -useless setup wall of text -says this game perfectly matches my scum meta and compares it to my town play mini mafia, however in mini mafia he was certain my play was scum as well -supports and defends LSB in the same post "Fuck, my head hurts. This game is making no sense to me right now, and I feel stupid. " -Not pushing his read on my confidently, pleas to have the day off and contribute in the future -Counterclaims LSB, but isn't willing to believe the roles are the same with different names. -Claims to shoot rol
L xxx -metric? Claims it is a trap, but never mentions who got trapped -weird vote on Palmar based on day 1 scum lynch % -read on every player in the game: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=295384¤tpage=23#457 -claims blue -Insists GM lied about his shot *** -After people question him, asks others to provide an explanation of what happened -Claims that GM leaving us in the dark is "pro-town" -Promises to share his scum suspects later. Instead provides jackal's suspects rather than his own -Mentions me as a vig target, without providing a strong explanation -Pushes RoL for lynch -Changes his read on bum, after calling him clear town earlier
Wiggles ### -first post wall of text -noncommital on LSB read, seems to go both ways http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=295384¤tpage=33#650 -Presents scenarios in large post, yet never posts which option he prefers -another useless scenario post
Palmar (black...likely traitor) ### -not actively pushing a lynch on day one like usual -votes GM for hydra comment -weird vote on L based on day 1 scum lynch % -Hard defends me. Comes off as overconfident
Chezinu -traitor? "mafia know all of the blue roles" scum slip? "mafia knows how the blue roles are triggered." -defends bum, mason? -votes palmar without any strong reasoning -roleblocked -Lied about roleblock???
chaoser (Liar vig) ### -Defends L for metric post -Shoots Palmar, possible accidental mafia hit? liar vig explanation doesn't provide necessary proof -Questions L after weird post that GM lied about hits
bum (good manner vig) -responsibility points??? -soft defends chez, mason? -unvotes hydra, seems unconfident -claims trigger/blue -supports GM's claim over LSB's, doesn't want to let both shoot -Wishy-washy analysis of wiggles, no real conclusion -only person around before lynch -timing of role claim is weird
BC (vig?) ### -pushes palmar for uninspired play/neutral topics after talking about rng -"was only able to shoot gm, and the possibility of him claiming "i got rbed" was far too likely if he was red. As such I fired." -Claims vig late into the cycle, poor reasoning
LSB (Overly righteous Vigilante) xxx -green read on bugs, despite LSB anaylsis -red read on hydra, weak reasoning "I'm against the Foolishness lynch simply because it's a bad idea to lynch a vet day 1" (mentions BC also should be exempt) -Claims blue....scum have names of blue roles
GGQ ### -Several walls of text
prpl (spam vig, shoots bugs) ### -random votes VE -Waking up in middle of night for lynch, votes lsb with little reasoning, after shooting down the analysis against him *** -Provides an analysis on BC, comes to the conclusion "hostile"...doesn't directly imply he is scum -jumps on the chezinu roleblock (knows he wasn't as scum?), isn't willing to consider 2 rbers if gm was rb'd?
VE ### -talking about SK -moving his vote around a lot, pressuring players -"SLJ, Foolishness, and chaoser." -Makes a case against GM, changes his vote, then immediately changes back -Doesn't want LSB to get a chance to shoot -Pushes suspicion on GM being traitor, which doesn't make sense with blue claim since a kp would be missing -Casts doubt on anyone that wasn't on LSB
Foolishness
Foolishness is considered by a large number of people to be TL's strongest town player. His reads are almost always dead on and he is willing to put in the necessary time as town.
This game, Foolishness has displayed nothing that would lead me to believe he cares about town. Most of his posts are one-liners, many which are spam or trolling. He is putting little effort into promoting a strong town environment. In Ver's analysis thread, he mentions how important day one is in establishing oneself as town. I haven't seen one example where he is trying to do so.
In his most recent game as scum (Pick Their Power Mafia), Foolishness displayed similar behavior. He invented his own post restriction and trolled the entire game. As maifa, I also have a habbit of trolling because it is so easy to do.
On December 21 2011 08:34 Foolishness wrote: List of people who have made a post that's a giant wall of text:
wherebugsgo bumatlarge Ver L
On December 21 2011 13:51 Foolishness wrote: I will support BC in everything at this point because he used the word asshattery.
Neither of these posts promote a good town environment. He is trying to be a comedian, rather than hunt scum.
As for the reads he does have, he provides little explanation. He mentions we should "Ignore Chezinu, silence bugs, kill L", but never explains why. Foolishness has made little attempt to pressure anyone into making a scum slip.
On December 22 2011 09:51 Foolishness wrote:##Vote: LSBI will be back before day ends to change if necessary. I'm still against but as always I'd rather lynch than no lynch. + Show Spoiler +Estimated number of people who will quote this post and call me mafia cause of it: 4 Estimated people: Palmar, Jackal, Curu/sandroba, kitaman
On December 22 2011 13:33 Foolishness wrote: ##Unvote: LSB ##Vote: GMarshal
aaawwwwwww yeah!
His votes provide absoultely no explanation at all. Foolishness really doesn't care who town lynches. All he cares about is his own survival. He makes sure that he doesn't upset anyone the entire day. He does post an analysis finally against bugs, but that is only when he realizes he will have to make a contribution or he will be lynched. In PTP, Foolishness made a similar case against myself.
##Vote Foolishness
Day 1 Vote Count
With 20 alive, it takes 11 to lynch.
Current votes:
LSB (12): wherebugsgo, SamuelLJackson, Jackal58, BloodyC0bbler, VisceraEyes, syllogism, -VisceraEyes, VisceraEyes, Palmar, Foolishness, bumatlarge, Liquid`Sheth, GMarshal, -Liquid`Sheth, GGQ, prplhz, -Foolishness, Mr. Wiggles
GMarshal (2): Palmar, -Palmar, GGQ, VisceraEyes, -VisceraEyes, kitaman27, Liquid`Sheth, -GGQ, Foolishness, Mr. Wiggles, -kitaman27, -Mr. Wiggles
L (1): chaoser, Palmar, -Palmar
Palmar (1): VisceraEyes, -VisceraEyes, VisceraEyes, Chezinu, bumatlarge, -VisceraEyes, L, -bumatlarge, -Chezinu
Foolishness (1): VisceraEyes, -VisceraEyes, kitaman27
SamuelLJackson (1): GMarshal, bumatlarge, Chezinu, VisceraEyes, -bumatlarge, -VisceraEyes, -Chezinu, LSB, -GMarshal, -LSB, Chezinu
Chezinu (1): RebirthOfLeGenD
VisceraEyes (1): prplhz, LSB, -prplhz
kitaman27 (0): GMarshal, -GMarshal
BloodyC0bbler (0): Mr. Wiggles, -Mr. Wiggles
Liquid`Sheth (0): kitaman27, -kitaman27
Voting ends at December 22 2011 14:00. (It's over.)
Day 2 Vote Count
With 14 alive it takes 8 to lynch.
Current votes:
BloodyC0bbler (7): RebirthOfLeGenD, Mr. Wiggles, Liquid`Sheth, prplhz, syllogism, bumatlarge, kitaman27
wherebugsgo (1): Foolishness
syllogism (1): chaoser
Foolishness (1): wherebugsgo
Mr. Wiggles (1): bumatlarge, -bumatlarge, GGQ
prplhz (0): kitaman27, -kitaman27
Chezinu (0): prplhz, -prplhz
Voting ends at December 27 2011 14:00. (It's over.)
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