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On December 23 2011 10:09 wherebugsgo wrote:Show nested quote +On December 23 2011 09:59 Jackal58 wrote:On December 23 2011 09:54 wherebugsgo wrote:
I don't; you really think BC's scum play would be that bad?
I've seen BC do some dumb stuff as town, so ya it's in the realm of possibilities. yeah, as town. I'm pretty sure one of the best scum players on this forum wouldn't fall to basic scumtells that prplhz pointed out. one of prpl's points was that "maybe BC doesn't enjoy playing scum," which is just ludicrous, given his reputation. What's bothering me more is not that prpl made the case, since prpl probably doesn't know BC's play that well, but the fact that Palmar said he agreed with everything he said. That's weird.
On December 23 2011 12:04 wherebugsgo wrote:Show nested quote +On December 23 2011 10:36 Palmar wrote:
Why don't you let BC defend himself WBG? Do you have a problem with him being forced to do something this game? nope, I just have a problem with bad arguments. prplhz's arguments for BC being scum are bad, but his effort is town-like. Your arguments have been bad and your effort is not town-like. You agree with bad arguments for BC being scum despite knowing BC better than prplhz. What gives?
bam son.
however, we lost a LOT of townies last night. We need to hit scum today. I say we kill Foolishness.
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On December 23 2011 14:39 kitaman27 wrote:Show nested quote +On December 23 2011 14:32 L wrote:
GM seems to have lied about his target in order to lessen the chance that his shot would be medic'd/intercepted/roleblocked/whatevered. His target was probably one of his greens to throw off suspicion, so he probably didn't shoot Jackal. Palmar's shot was claimed.
This means GM either shot VisceraEyes or SamuelLJackson
I'm gonna go back and look through his post list to see if he gave any indication of suspicion with respect to either of them. If that was the case, why in the world would GM not inform us who he really shot after the 12:00 deadline? He had around 20 minutes to share who he really would have shot, during a time which the scum team wouldn't be able to change their actions. Are you purposely trying to shift focus away from RoL or something? @RoL,did you receive any notification of receiving a hit?
Why wouldn't he? Withholding the information until the last second is a hyper pro-town move. Mafia don't need any additional information and his list is perfectly legible when you recognize that he lied about the RoL shot.
I mean, this isn't 100% certain, but if RoL WAS shot by GM, then it means that either:
1) GM lied about his role as a blue in a fucked up counter-roleclaim day 1.
No.
2) GM was shot by someone. RoL was protected. That protection came up within that same 12:00 deadline that you're claiming makes the play odd strange.
Alternatively a medic took a random 1 in 18 guess beforehand.
3) GM was roleblocked and shot by mafia. RoL is mafia. Someone else is missing a vig hit claim or mafia have 4(?) night hits.
Note how each of these scenarios is bullshit. 4 mafia night kp is fucking broken as fuck. Even if you assume an SK AND that Palmar had a hit, the numbers are ridiculous. 2 mislynches and a single missed vig hit end the game under that meta, nevermind the TWO self-explosive vigs that we've encountered thusfar. Ver and Ace aren't THAT bad at balancing.
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oh wait wtf RoL didn't die?
If GM shot at a townie does it mean he would kill both the townie and himself? Or would GM just die and the townie would live?
If GM would have simply died and RoL would've survived then we know nothing about RoL's alignment. However in the former case we have to lynch him.
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I think gm role is if he shoots a townie, he dies instead of the townie. Thus he is responsible for his own death. Which means there are three Kp unaccounted for
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On December 23 2011 14:56 chaoser wrote:I don't understand. Show nested quote +Oh, I guess I should announce that I'm shooting RoL. I'm not having a repeat of TMM where he gets away with being busy till the endgame. If I'm wrong then on my head be it (and by that I mean I'll be horribly dead). I know there isn't strong analysis supporting it, but I just spent 3 1/2 hours writing this post/coming up with who to shoot, and I just don't have time to flesh out a fully detailed analysis on anyone before the deadline. GM specifically said he shot RoL at exactly: There is no reason for him to lie at all. Why do you think he misrepresented his hit L?
RE: Misrepresentation.
Because he likely assumed that mafia would wait for his post because he called it out earlier. This forces any roleblock decision they have to the last minute, literally, of play.
Also, see my other post. The hits don't add up unless people are withholding information regarding their shots. My analysis will change substantially if other people step up and claim they've hit people. Until that point you have a choice between:
1) He lied.
and
2) World's most ridiculous chain of events occurred/Game is broken/He lied about something else.
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kitaman27
United States9245 Posts
On December 23 2011 15:01 L wrote:Show nested quote +On December 23 2011 14:39 kitaman27 wrote:On December 23 2011 14:32 L wrote:
GM seems to have lied about his target in order to lessen the chance that his shot would be medic'd/intercepted/roleblocked/whatevered. His target was probably one of his greens to throw off suspicion, so he probably didn't shoot Jackal. Palmar's shot was claimed.
This means GM either shot VisceraEyes or SamuelLJackson
I'm gonna go back and look through his post list to see if he gave any indication of suspicion with respect to either of them. If that was the case, why in the world would GM not inform us who he really shot after the 12:00 deadline? He had around 20 minutes to share who he really would have shot, during a time which the scum team wouldn't be able to change their actions. Are you purposely trying to shift focus away from RoL or something? @RoL,did you receive any notification of receiving a hit? Why wouldn't he? Withholding the information until the last second is a hyper pro-town move. Mafia don't need any additional information and his list is perfectly legible when you recognize that he lied about the RoL shot.
That doesn't make sense at all. GM knows he is a suicide vig, so why would he leave it a mystery to who he really shot? He knows that it is highly likely that he will die if his shot is wrong. He wouldn't leave us in the dark knowing that he would likely never have a chance to reveal his true target. That wouldn't be a hyper pro-town move in the slightest.
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On December 22 2011 11:47 GMarshal wrote:Show nested quote +On December 22 2011 11:42 LSB wrote:
Hmm... I just realized that deing is problematic, I'll claim
I am the Overly righteous Vigilante.
I have one bullet, however if I shoot a townie I commit suicide
What does this mean for you? Right before day tomorrow I will announce who I shot. If the person is townie and I'm still alive, feel free to lynch me. However I'm pretty accurate with my shots, so it will probably be red, and then you can judge me again.
What if I'm mafia?
Well either way there will be one dead red by tomorrow, so it all works out for town. Lies! Do you know how I know you are lying? I have that same role. Its not called Overly Righteous Viglante, its called Justice vigilante. I took the precaution of crumbing it earlier with the picture + Show Spoiler +which is the first result you get when searching "justice". Therefore you are lying scum. ##Unvote
##Vote: LSB
RE: GM's role
This is the quote wherein the claims are made about GM's role are made. I see nothing about his shot not going through and both his and LSB's imply that he takes his life out of a need for justice AFTER he has committed murder.
By contrast, if GM is honest about his shot choice and he DOES pick a mafia, he has the potential to have his shot protected by a doc, his powers blocked, or something else. The only question here would be why would GM call that he's going to call his shot, and you'll find that the answer to that is trivial.
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Foolishness
United States3044 Posts
I'm fairly confident that if GM lied about who he shot then he breadcrumbed the real victim in his post.
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On December 23 2011 15:07 L wrote:Show nested quote +On December 23 2011 14:56 chaoser wrote:I don't understand. Oh, I guess I should announce that I'm shooting RoL. I'm not having a repeat of TMM where he gets away with being busy till the endgame. If I'm wrong then on my head be it (and by that I mean I'll be horribly dead). I know there isn't strong analysis supporting it, but I just spent 3 1/2 hours writing this post/coming up with who to shoot, and I just don't have time to flesh out a fully detailed analysis on anyone before the deadline. GM specifically said he shot RoL at exactly: GMarshal United States. Dec 23 2011 00:00 There is no reason for him to lie at all. Why do you think he misrepresented his hit L? RE: Misrepresentation. Because he likely assumed that mafia would wait for his post because he called it out earlier. This forces any roleblock decision they have to the last minute, literally, of play. Also, see my other post. The hits don't add up unless people are withholding information regarding their shots. My analysis will change substantially if other people step up and claim they've hit people. Until that point you have a choice between: 1) He lied. and 2) World's most ridiculous chain of events occurred/Game is broken/He lied about something else.
This makes no sense, he posted at 12. There was nothing anyone could do about anything at that point. So there's no reason for him to lie to make mafia not RB him or anything since it would have been impossible to change actions to respond to his kill statement at that point. And he knew he was a suicide Vigi so if he fucked up he knew he was going to die and be unable to clarify anything.
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On December 23 2011 15:03 wherebugsgo wrote:
oh wait wtf RoL didn't die?
If GM shot at a townie does it mean he would kill both the townie and himself? Or would GM just die and the townie would live?
If GM would have simply died and RoL would've survived then we know nothing about RoL's alignment. However in the former case we have to lynch him.
The host isn't going to be able to answer that because he would be confirming roles in the game. And wow lol, why would you guys think Gmarshal was lying about who he hit if you knew what his claimed role was?
GM Couldn't of been roleblocked because then he wouldn't of been dead. So if he faked his hit to mislead mafia then changed it last minute to try to kill me and he was roleblocked then he wouldn't of killed himself, which means the mafia would of had to RB + hit him, which means there would be 4 hits unaccounted for, which is bad and probably not possible since we know someone claimed killing palmar, that would leave 4 other hits in mafia hands.
More likely, the mafia was going to let GM kill himself/whoever else since it wasn't them, and as a result GM hit me and killed himself because I am town aligned. This would leave 3 hits unaccounted which could be an SK kill and 2 mafia, or just mafia kills. Much more reasonable.
Either way, we can be certain that GM was NOT roleblocked, otherwise it leaves an absurd amount of KP unaccounted for, so he must of killed himself. Any other explanation would be elaborate as shit and confusing therefore, we defer to Occam's and we have our answer.
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On December 23 2011 15:07 kitaman27 wrote:Show nested quote +On December 23 2011 15:01 L wrote:On December 23 2011 14:39 kitaman27 wrote:On December 23 2011 14:32 L wrote:
GM seems to have lied about his target in order to lessen the chance that his shot would be medic'd/intercepted/roleblocked/whatevered. His target was probably one of his greens to throw off suspicion, so he probably didn't shoot Jackal. Palmar's shot was claimed.
This means GM either shot VisceraEyes or SamuelLJackson
I'm gonna go back and look through his post list to see if he gave any indication of suspicion with respect to either of them. If that was the case, why in the world would GM not inform us who he really shot after the 12:00 deadline? He had around 20 minutes to share who he really would have shot, during a time which the scum team wouldn't be able to change their actions. Are you purposely trying to shift focus away from RoL or something? @RoL,did you receive any notification of receiving a hit? Why wouldn't he? Withholding the information until the last second is a hyper pro-town move. Mafia don't need any additional information and his list is perfectly legible when you recognize that he lied about the RoL shot. That doesn't make sense at all. GM knows he is a suicide vig, so why would he leave it a mystery to who he really shot? He knows that it is highly likely that he will die if his shot is wrong. He wouldn't leave us in the dark knowing that he would likely never have a chance to reveal his true target. That wouldn't be a hyper pro-town move in the slightest.
RE: Leaving us in the dark.
He didn't. Please read and account for the hits before you wander off into magical fairy land.
Account for every single one. Why did people die? Who killed them? What are people likely to be lying about? Why?
Its something like 95% certain he shot Visc, 4% potential he shot hydra, maybe 1% that he shot Jackal.
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On December 23 2011 15:11 Foolishness wrote:
I'm fairly confident that if GM lied about who he shot then he breadcrumbed the real victim in his post.
I could see him doing that, but why would he lie? He knew actions were final at that point.
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RE: People who argue like second graders.
Alright, here's a challenge to people who think GM did NOT lie about who he shot.
Give me a good explanation why every person who died, died. Do not bother trying to nitpick anything I've said until that point, otherwise it'll be pretty obvious that you're scum trying to muddy the waters because my analysis tells us WHO they shot, which allows us to go find out WHY.
I'll be waiting.
Annnnnd Go!
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VE was pretty fucking much a townie in most peoples minds. Mafia shot him. Sandroba/curu are both good townies and having them as a hydra against mafia would have been troublesome. Jackal died for reasons I cant explain yet cause I'm on the phone and unable to read his filter do I'll assume they hit him cause they thought he was blue. I killed palmar and gm tried to shoot rol, failed cause rol is townie, and died himself.
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RE: Chaoser
Just to make your life harder, I just remembered this post:
On December 22 2011 11:49 LSB wrote:
Because Ver would defiantly put a duplicate of the same role in a game....
Wana test? I'll shoot you tonight if you wish, if you're town, we both die, if your mafia, you're probably too scared to face my shot
A shot on a townie kills both.
You're claiming have mafia with 3 kp, still don't know why Jackal died and now can't explain why RoL isn't dead.
Try again.
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On December 23 2011 15:20 L wrote:
RE: People who argue like second graders.
Alright, here's a challenge to people who think GM did NOT lie about who he shot.
Give me a good explanation why every person who died, died. Do not bother trying to nitpick anything I've said until that point, otherwise it'll be pretty obvious that you're scum trying to muddy the waters because my analysis tells us WHO they shot, which allows us to go find out WHY.
I'll be waiting.
Annnnnd Go!
Alright, I read all their posts. To start off, one of the reasons I place holder'd on Chezinu was because I found him suspicious. I will elaborate on that a bit later.
But from what I read, here is how I imagine the mafia decided their hits. They hit SamuelJackson for two reasons I can think of, 1. Curu/Sandroba are both good players, and you are essentially killing two heads there. I explained earlier how mafia should be more scared of a hydra then the town should be. On top of this he was making some decent posts and he was virtually tunneling Chezinu all day 1 and didn't want to deal with his insanity. A lot of people put up with Chezinu's insanity because they are too lazy to read it and statistically there is only a 20-25% chance he is mafia, right?
So that's why I think they killed the Hydra.
Jackal58 becomes a bit more complicated, but simply put he was a bit active, he has a bit of a reputation and had no one really suspecting him. Not a terrible hit since he wasn't likely to be getting protection either.
VE was a bit more complicated but I have two reasons. He was really active and seemed to be kind of making sense, at least compared to what I remember of him. But more importantly this post probably sealed his fate.
On December 22 2011 11:59 VisceraEyes wrote:
Sheth I swear to Christ if you don't put your vote back on LSB something horrifying is going to happen to you overnight.
Which brings me to my next question.
What's up Sheth?
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Ok, you bring up a good point. I'll have to retread the whole claiming part of day 1 tomorrow but I still don't understand why gm would feel the need to lie at midnight, when all the actions have been set in stone and a lie would just confuse the town instead of being clean and simple. I feel like a more valid reason for the kills would be that a bus driver bussed his kill but that's also just speculation.
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On December 23 2011 15:33 L wrote:RE: Chaoser Just to make your life harder, I just remembered this post: Show nested quote +On December 22 2011 11:49 LSB wrote:
Because Ver would defiantly put a duplicate of the same role in a game....
Wana test? I'll shoot you tonight if you wish, if you're town, we both die, if your mafia, you're probably too scared to face my shot A shot on a townie kills both. You're claiming have mafia with 3 kp, still don't know why Jackal died and now can't explain why RoL isn't dead. Try again.
They were both town... they both claimed different roles. It's possible there is more than one variant on a vigilante in this game. Unless you are saying LSB fake claimed for some retarded reason and just never corrected himself, and that Gmarshal also fake claimed.
But why the hell would they both lie? L that is so convoluted and ridiculous. They both most likely told the truth and they probably had different roles. I dunno why GM assumed LSB had to be lying, it would be a silly mafia fake claim.
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On December 23 2011 14:56 chaoser wrote:I don't understand. Show nested quote +Oh, I guess I should announce that I'm shooting RoL. I'm not having a repeat of TMM where he gets away with being busy till the endgame. If I'm wrong then on my head be it (and by that I mean I'll be horribly dead). I know there isn't strong analysis supporting it, but I just spent 3 1/2 hours writing this post/coming up with who to shoot, and I just don't have time to flesh out a fully detailed analysis on anyone before the deadline. GM specifically said he shot RoL at exactly: There is no reason for him to lie at all. Why do you think he misrepresented his hit L?
This is my issue, GMarshal's post was already past the deadline, so it doesn't make sense that he was cloaking anything (unless he didn't realise it was past the deadline, I guess, but that possibility is obscure and I'm discarding it).
So unless he was roleblocked, there should 100% have been a shot fired at RoL. Since RoL claims there was no shot (and I've confirmed with Ver that people saved would receive a PM), he must have been roleblocked (it's possible that RoL is lying and is mafia and mafia have a doctor that protected him, but again GM's post was after the deadline so the mafia doc would have been just guessing. Discarding that possibility for now). I've also confirmed with Ver that GM (or more strictly someone with the role that GM claimed to have) would not have died if he shot a townie but was roleblocked. So he died some other way.
I see two possibilities:
1) Mafia roleblocked and shot GM. This is a pretty simpleminded way of doing things for the mafia. It completely eliminates the risk that GM would shoot one of them.
2) Mafia roleblocked GM and someone else shot him. Let's examine the motivations for each action. If Mafia roleblocks GM, he survives the night and no scum is dead. GM looks super scummy day 2 and very possibly gets lynched. Why would someone shoot him? Several decent cases about why he might be mafia were made during day 1 and he counterclaimed LSB who flipped town. He posted nothing during the night phase that would discourage a shot until after the deadline. It's quite possible that a townie would shoot him.
I'm moving farther into speculation here, but I suspect VE shot GM. If you look at day 1, GM mentioned the possibility of suicide vigilantes in his post with the justice picture. VE then twice brings this up suggesting that GM seems to have hidden knowledge of roles in the game (GM had that knowledge because of his role but VE assumed that he had it because he was mafia which would mean VE assumed GM was right about there being a suicide vigilante. Why so certain? Because VE was one himself). Also he laters threatens Sheth that if he doesn't vote LSB something bad will happen to him overnight.
It's a bit more of a stretch to assume he shot GM, but if you look at his posts he certainly seems to suspect him overnight.
So this would explain two of the green kills, leaving the other three as mafia kills (possibly one as sk) and palmar obviously shot chaoser.
So what do I conclude from all this? If all of it is true, MrWiggles is super scummy for this post:
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=295384¤tpage=39#762
So am I a genius or an idiot, guys?
If true, this covers the problems with chaoser's explanation, RoL's explanation, and L's explanation. GMarshal didn't lie for absolutely no fucking reason, RoL has a reason for not dying, and the number of kills is reasonable.
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