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TL Mafia XLVIII - Page 112

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Barbiero
Profile Blog Joined September 2010
Brazil5259 Posts
December 11 2011 03:30 GMT
#2221
What are the exact numbers we'd need to consider the game lylo?


Assuming that annul is right and scum didn't stack at any point in the game, lylo should be at 9 town and 6 mafia(mafia kp = 2 for 6 players, possibly its constant 2 or #mafia/3).

We are currently at 13/6


Drazerk, explain your thought process on choosing sandroba to protect on night 2. I thought it made sense if it was night 1, but turns out I was wrong.
♥ The world needs more hearts! ♥
Barbiero
Profile Blog Joined September 2010
Brazil5259 Posts
December 11 2011 03:31 GMT
#2222
EBWOP
nevermind I just realized that drazerk isn't a medic.

scratch the last sentence, I'll reread last page
♥ The world needs more hearts! ♥
redFF
Profile Blog Joined November 2010
United States3910 Posts
December 11 2011 04:34 GMT
#2223
lol draz
##Vote Drazerk
redFF
Profile Blog Joined November 2010
United States3910 Posts
December 11 2011 04:35 GMT
#2224
im treating draz as nigh confirmed scum, and annul as very scummy.
bumatlarge
Profile Blog Joined October 2007
United States4567 Posts
December 11 2011 04:57 GMT
#2225
Well, I've been reading the past few pages a couple times an I can't really reach a verdict, so I have to go with my gut here.

Is drazerk normally like this? At least try to keep your line of play consistent yo. If you are trying to get shot, don't claim roleblock immune medic who post claim day 1. Reading your filter, Annul's analysis looks extremely solid. That said, this is completely different from the line of play I recall you play in the other games. You are still dead weight at this point as town, so it shouldn't be the least bit surprising that people are pushing you as town.

Drazerk would be the safe lynch. Annul seems to be the better lynch.

Annul's present play is very transparent. Obviously this lynch is very important, since scum will have na uphill climb if we lynch scum tonight with palmar zeph and toad (three people I'm fairly confident are not scum) still alive. Drazerk lynch or bust is very obvious, and drazerk has been playing awfully so I can see any argument against this. His line of play is VERY linear, but not completely desperate.

I would feel pretty bad if annul f flipped town at this point, but I have to go with palmar at this one, an trust drazerk is actually this dumb ....
Together but separate, like oatmeal
Drazerk
Profile Blog Joined September 2010
United Kingdom31255 Posts
December 11 2011 05:18 GMT
#2226
On December 11 2011 13:35 redFF wrote:
im treating draz as nigh confirmed scum, and annul as very scummy.


Your scum
Drazerk
Profile Blog Joined September 2010
United Kingdom31255 Posts
December 11 2011 05:18 GMT
#2227
also annul is town
annul
Profile Blog Joined June 2010
United States2841 Posts
December 11 2011 06:23 GMT
#2228
On December 11 2011 13:57 bumatlarge wrote:
Annul's present play is very transparent. Obviously this lynch is very important, since scum will have na uphill climb if we lynch scum tonight with palmar zeph and toad (three people I'm fairly confident are not scum) still alive. Drazerk lynch or bust is very obvious


you mean to tell me that my play only makes sense if i were red?

you dont think that a blue under constant pressure for two days straight should try to defend himself? lol

of course this lynch is important... because im blue and town shouldnt lynch a blue. is that all you see, that i am trying to get a lynch on an actual red instead of myself?
annul
Profile Blog Joined June 2010
United States2841 Posts
December 11 2011 06:23 GMT
#2229
shit even the guy im targeting says im town lol
TruthBringer
Profile Joined November 2003
United States578 Posts
December 11 2011 06:46 GMT
#2230
##vote redFF

I think annul and drazerk are both town. I think redFF is mafia. Of the people that I think are mafia, I think the only one that could actually carry enough votes to be lynched is redFF.
Carbon FC
annul
Profile Blog Joined June 2010
United States2841 Posts
December 11 2011 06:54 GMT
#2231
p.s. look at my sexy sexy dinner

+ Show Spoiler +
[image loading]
bumatlarge
Profile Blog Joined October 2007
United States4567 Posts
December 11 2011 10:10 GMT
#2232
On December 11 2011 15:23 annul wrote:
Show nested quote +
On December 11 2011 13:57 bumatlarge wrote:
Annul's present play is very transparent. Obviously this lynch is very important, since scum will have na uphill climb if we lynch scum tonight with palmar zeph and toad (three people I'm fairly confident are not scum) still alive. Drazerk lynch or bust is very obvious


you mean to tell me that my play only makes sense if i were red?

you dont think that a blue under constant pressure for two days straight should try to defend himself? lol

of course this lynch is important... because im blue and town shouldnt lynch a blue. is that all you see, that i am trying to get a lynch on an actual red instead of myself?


I think you're too smart to jump on drazerk for being stupid. I don't think drazerk is red, therefore you don't have a great record for targets this game. It's shame this stems off some lie, but it produced results. You would have played this differently as a blue. Immediately assuming drazerk is scum not it.
Together but separate, like oatmeal
xsksc
Profile Blog Joined February 2011
United Kingdom1044 Posts
December 11 2011 10:11 GMT
#2233
On December 11 2011 11:35 Palmar wrote:
We're still lynching annul.

Palmar
Profile Blog Joined July 2010
Iceland22634 Posts
December 11 2011 10:28 GMT
#2234
[image loading]
Computer says mafia
hyshes
Profile Joined December 2010
Belgium428 Posts
December 11 2011 12:14 GMT
#2235
I'm still on a annul lynch. I've masoned with drazerk in the past, i've experienced his thinking process during a game. And damn, this all fits very well in it.
How does liquid slide? Liquid horns Hero after the synonym. How can Hero return beside the driver? The moving feat expenses the mortal. Will Hero pause?
Drazerk
Profile Blog Joined September 2010
United Kingdom31255 Posts
December 11 2011 13:33 GMT
#2236
On December 11 2011 15:23 annul wrote:
shit even the guy im targeting says im town lol


Probably because I am the only player who knows what is going on now.
Toadesstern
Profile Blog Joined October 2008
Germany16350 Posts
December 11 2011 13:49 GMT
#2237
[image loading]


I'm going to quote what palmar said because I literally think some people did not read the case he did on annul. I'm quoting it within a spoiler to not bomb the thread (more than I'm already doing).
Please read it people, you need to read it carefully and not just skip it.
+ Show Spoiler +
On December 08 2011 22:00 Palmar wrote:
It's time.


You don't always catch scum in the same way. There is, for example, no traditional way of catching Kenpachi or Coagulation as scum, because they will not, regardless of their alignment, provide us with content that can be broken down and analyzed through post by post analysis.

That is not to say you can't catch people who play unconventionally as scum. While annul doesn't write long, well explained posts, no matter his alignment, it's the content and direction, as well as the intention of these posts that give a player away. I think annul is a good player, he doesn't give himself away every single post. But it's rather the overall playstyle that reeks of scum.

Let's look at why annul is scum:

For convenience, here is his entire filter: Clicky

There is not much to be had on annul's alignment from his initial posting. He is mostly correct in his thoughts, simply because arguing such mundane things as "should we use lists or not" is not something that can give away people's alignments. No matter their opinion on such things.

The first post that stuck out to me was this:

Show nested quote +
On December 05 2011 06:04 annul wrote:
im still waiting for purple haze to address his blue claim. if i saw it, mafia surely saw it too. and i saw it immediately. ;\


This is regarding prplhz's sentence: "Just want to sit around and wait for power roles to do our job"

Here's the deal, this is in no way a blue claim, and as soon as prplhz denies it being one, the issue should be ignored, yet even quite a bit later annul is still wondering about a trivial issue. The sentence can easily be read from the point of view of prplhz being town and "our job" referring to finding mafia, not blues using their abilities.

Why does annul want to stick with this? Because it gives him an excuse to contribute nothing, which has been a hallmark of his play this game.

Show nested quote +
On December 05 2011 06:10 annul wrote:
people NEED to be aware that he blueslipped there. it changes everything.


What the shit is a blueslip, there is no such thing. He denied it referring to him being blue, and that should be taken at facevalue. It changes exactly nothing, annul is just staying on his road of "If I tunnel this, I don't have to contribute".

Just so I point it out, annul's vote on Drazerk, followed by his switch to Soap gives us no indication of his alignment.

Let's talk some more about how to avoid contributing and draw bad conclusions:

Show nested quote +
On December 06 2011 03:02 annul wrote:
im still waiting to see if soap actually flips from v7's shot or if this is a grand troll by everybody

if soap actually flips anything nonred i'm instavoting palmar and not unvoting


What has Soap's alignment to do with me? I called him my homeboy, so if I'm right I must be scum? Where's the logic here. I did not ask for Soap to be shot, the whole issue has nothing to do with me. I retracted my claim before the shot was fired, and confirmed it. The decision was a rash, bad decision from v7, against a person that I had no intention of getting shot.

As syllogism so brilliantly put it:

Show nested quote +
On December 06 2011 03:05 syllogism wrote:
So you are saying palmar is scum, vader is town and palmar used his psychic powers to determine that vader is a town day vig and would shoot Soap instead of, say, himself?


Of course, this doesn't stop annul with following through with his completely illogical train of thought, because that's a favorite thing of mafia, to not use logic and just run with stuff.

Show nested quote +
On December 06 2011 06:10 annul wrote:
wow. you have to be kidding me.

##vote palmar


Now, please recheck annul's filter ( here ) and scroll down to where he votes me. Notice how sharply his contribution rate has fallen. Not only that, but there is also NO effort at scumhunting at all. He literally hasn't accused anyone of anything since he decided I was red. There is no substance. I think the closest thing was calling Jackal a moron.

He hasn't even pushed a case against me today.

The bottom line, is that in addition to the complete lack of scumhunting, the complete lack of contributions, annul claimed to have been saved by a medic, from a shot I am all but certain was fired by syllogism, makes me have a very strong feeling this guy is scum.

Show nested quote +
On December 08 2011 01:36 annul wrote:
why the fuck is palmar of all people leading a wagon on ME of all people? did you all forget the shit he pulled yesterday? letting palmar run shit = outed jack and a dead green


Notice, there is not logical reason for not listening to me, it's just the fact that because I'm aggressive and v7 panicked, I must by extension not be trusted. Annul is clinging onto the notion that disregarding me by referring to the misfired shot yesterday, he can discredit me enough so that I won't be listened to.

I'm still waiting on anything that can count as contribution from annul today.

I think it's also very bad for town to try and push the issue aside. If we allow the mafia do deflect the annul lynch onto a random townie (Radfield, I'm looking at you), we both eliminate the chance that we hit mafia today, and we cause town to be in exactly the same situation tomorrow. It's probably a better idea to lynch me, because at least that will validate everything I'm saying, not like mafia is gonna let me live after the night if annul dies.

With 15 townies alive and 6 mafia, we need 11 townies to make the correct decision. The correct decision is to lynch annul today.

I was useless on day 1, please accept this scum as a token of my regret.

Annul is mafia

##Vote annul



Ok now that you've read it think about it and tell me what his case is about! Yes it's about annul not contributing or not taking a stance, it has a nice addition later (not within his actual case) about his claim of being shot to be a lie and even more later (when annul claimed joat) palmar said that the claim is bullshit (not within his case as well). That's basicly it, while not contributing is definitely the main issue palmar has.

First thing, his contribution:
What palmar says about annul can be said about 50% of this thread. It's not that annul is a hardcore lurker. Now imagine you're on day2, get home, open the thread and realize you've got a bunch of votes on yourself almost enough to get yourself lynched. What do you do in that scenario? You're going crazy trying to defend yourself to prevent a townie-lynch.
Noone will just hop in this thread, ignoring those 6 / 10 / 11 votes, start contributing and post a big case yourself. The first thing you're doing is try to get at least some people off yourself with reasoning to try and prevent a 100% townie-lynch (if he is townie he at least knows his alignment). I've been in that situation as well with a bunch of people thinking I'm mafia day1 and I had to defend myself like crazy through day1, 2 AND 3 although I was town and I wasn't able to contribute that much, ask hyshes about it, I got him lynched.
Maybe this is just myself being stubborn because I saved him n1 but I can understand that he's got bigger problems than getting fancy contribution right now
Now the way more important part about his contribution: Remember my case about Erandorr?
Well I had a big case on him as well and Erandorr was WAY worse than Annul, still palmar kept saying his case was better for whatever reason (still don't think so). If you think Erandorr's case is not strong enough (and I think we all agree that it's kinda busted now with that replacement) than you have to admit that probably Annuls (lack of) contribution is not a 100% deal as well. Probably weaker than what we had on Erandorr and to be honest, as already mentioned I could probably make the same case on a couple of people in this thread. Just go to page 1, look at those people who are still alive from top to bottom and make a list of people who are contributing "little", sadly it's a bunch.

Annul being shot:
Annul got shot. I did not claim because there is no reason to claim. Yeah sure yesterday I could have claimed but there was no viable 2nd target around after erandorr got replaced and I would have just given me away to mafia for a person I thought to be a VT. Now with a 2nd Medic arround claiming it is not that much of a deal becaus we are getting a Mafia (I am not talking about annul here) and medics can protect each other => they have to doublestack => limiting Mafia KP no matter what.
Now the important part obviously is that Palmar said, that Annuls claim was bullshit, probably thinking it's a mafia-move to get town-cred when there is no information about how much KP mafia has and nobody knows if he got shot or not. He was wrong with that. Although he never said it was an important point for him it's what got palmar thinking about annul and got him tunneling.

Annul being a joat:
This is so ridiculous that I have to quote palmar instead of just telling what happened:
On December 09 2011 10:25 Palmar wrote:
chance of success: 0.2%
Chance of success 0,2%. Well guess what, those 0,2% happened and he's still not willing to rethink the whole thing? 0,2%? Second time he was wrong about Annul and kept tunneling.

In reality Annul is the new Hier. Sure there was a chance of Hier to flip red but saying the case on Annul is as good as palmar makes it sound is just wrong (again).
If you really read that case you can't tell me that that's a stronger case than the one we got on Drazerk and I don't even think it's stronger than the one I had on Erandorr and he (kind of) turned out to be green.
People are sheeping Palmar. There is no explanations, nothing, people are just not questioning a thing and keep voteing because well, if there's already something like 7 people on Annul, than I probably am better off voteing him as well.
That may be how you vote your government in reallife but it sure isn't how you vote in Mafia.
Read what the case ACTUALLY is. Ask yourself if it really is that strong as palmar tries to make it look and ask yourself if you really should sheep that or if we got a better target.

And yeah I'm sorry to claim another thing but I really don't want us to lynch a townie:
That's what V7 said to me when he read my case on erandorr
On December 08 2011 06:59 vaderseven wrote:
Toadesstern, I like your case on erandorr. I will make sure to look at him tonight.

That's probably the thing V7 is trying to tell us. He never thought of looking at erandorrs filter tonight, the 4th action is a dt-check. That's why he wants to look at him tonight (yesterday, I hope he did not after that replacement).
Do you really want to lynch someone that got a DT-action? I'm with V7 here, I do NOT want to lynch Annul.

I'm not saying he's a clear townie because he's not, he's a coinflip, palmar got some points, annul is not contributing as much as he should but so are a bunch of other people. If you really think the case on annul is the best we got you did not see what Drazerk is pulling off this game.
I do not know why, but Palmar is blowing up this case, makeing it look awesome way more than he should, if we would not have our dt confirming him I'd be all over him.
<Elem> >toad in charge of judging lewdness <Elem> how bad can it be <Elem> also wew, that is actually p lewd.
Drazerk
Profile Blog Joined September 2010
United Kingdom31255 Posts
December 11 2011 13:52 GMT
#2238
Toad your aware if redFF is telling the truth that mafia have 2 roleblockers and you didn't limit KP at all by claiming right?
Toadesstern
Profile Blog Joined October 2008
Germany16350 Posts
December 11 2011 14:04 GMT
#2239
I hardly think mafia has 2 RB, why would they RB redFF (if he is green) out of all the people?
I guess he's either a liar himself or we really have a townie RB that roleblocks redFF because he thinks redFF's scummy. Actually the case on redFF is something like the case on annul so it would not be strange for a townie at all no matter what alignment redFF actually has.
So no, I'm not scared about 2 roleblockers.
<Elem> >toad in charge of judging lewdness <Elem> how bad can it be <Elem> also wew, that is actually p lewd.
xsksc
Profile Blog Joined February 2011
United Kingdom1044 Posts
December 11 2011 14:08 GMT
#2240
Toad, you didn't quote Palmar's more recent case.

For reference:

On December 09 2011 20:09 Palmar wrote:
Let me point this out very slowly, because seriously, that was the dumbest thing I've ever seen in a mafia game.


Show nested quote +
On December 09 2011 10:30 annul wrote:
this is why i give the shot to the most town sensed person in the game. if i picked and missed i instadie.

at least now you see im not bullshitting.

get off of me; i have more useful things to do for future cycles.


Annul gave his shot to a townie who had been very, very open about his read on Erandorr as scum. Annul probably counted on Toad being terrible enough to only aim the gun at Errandor, but because prplhz was town too, Annul ran with it.

Does anyone with half a brain actually think that town annul would not pick his target himself? Notice he did not even consider prplhz's alignment. Annul hasn't accused prplhz all game, he was completely fine with killing prplhz at random.

At this point, I asked annul why he didn't just shoot me? After all, he has been pushing for my death since day 1, if we can call his half-assed attempts pushing. He obviously doesn't give a shit who dies as long as it's not him.

Show nested quote +
On December 09 2011 10:32 Palmar wrote:
No, that's retarded.

If you were town, you'd have had the balls to call your shot yourself, the best way to prove yourself town is to shoot mafia, they should be glaringly obvious by now. Why didn't you shoot me? I'm your number one scumread am I not?


And do you know what Annul replies with?

Show nested quote +
On December 09 2011 10:34 annul wrote:
because if i shoot you that says nothing about me whatsoever? but if i give power to the most town person that has consensus, then theres a chance i kill one of your partners AND i survive the day


What the fuck?????????

The only way this sentence makes sense is if annul already knows I'll flip town. According to him I must be scum. But how does shooting scum not say anything about him?

In non-crazy-world shooting scum is one of the best ways of clearing your name. In non-crazy-world you don't randomly shoot townies to save your own hide.

Seriously, read annul's explanation of not shooting me over and over again until your useless brains understand what the fuck is going on here.

Holy shit, now I don't just have a case he's scum, the guy fucking claimed scum in the thread and didn't get lynched. I can't express how fucking mad I am at this complete and utter incompetence. What the fuck.

In other news.

Feel free to randomly kill a few people on this list: TruthBringer, Risen, hyshes, redFF, sandroba, Zephirdd.



Annul is scum. Syllo shot Annul n1, mafia medic saved him.
Lynch Annul please xoxo
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