Mini Mafia X - Page 5

wherebugsgo

Japan10647 Posts

November 24 2011 23:37 GMT

#566

well like I said before, what's stopping scum from holding their hit?

We can no lynch for all I care. It's not going to do anything except delay.

wherebugsgo

Japan10647 Posts

November 25 2011 09:19 GMT

#571

On November 24 2011 11:35 wherebugsgo wrote:

For the townie between Meapak/sandro:

Show nested quote +

I highlighted my own name blue in the first post I made. Literally right at the top.

Show nested quote +

I said he isn't a doctor, and then in the spoiler said "jk jk jk". This is a breadcrumb. JK=jailkeeper.

Show nested quote +

Locked in=another jailkeeper breadcrumb.

Show nested quote +

I shot down Meapak's idea of people calling roleblocks almost instantly after he posted it. Why? Because I'm a jailkeeper.

Then note I mentioned Erandorr several times early that day, asking for his thoughts, mentioning how other than him nothing was happening.

Prpl, my breadcrumbs are in the quote above. They're nested quotes.

My breadcrumb that I had visited Erandorr:

On November 19 2011 08:01 wherebugsgo wrote:

Lastly, if I was trying to give Wiggles credit and then trying to draw Erandorr into the lynch conversation, why is it that I have not pushed Erandorr to be lynched? I don't find Erandorr suspicious, despite the fact that he agreed with my argument on hiro but attacked it on the grounds that he didn't like me.

Point being, when do I leave someone alone when I am town for using bad logic to attack me? I never do that, regardless of me being town or scum. Think about it, I get accused of OMGUS all the time, it's because when people use bad logic to attack me and I'm town I think they could be scum. In this case I didn't back off him just because (even though I didn't explicitly state the reasons). This was a hint that I knew more than you guys; I had visited him.

I've caught several scum that way in the past, it's not always reliable, but Erandorr was playing really differently.

On November 20 2011 08:07 wherebugsgo wrote:

Show nested quote +

On November 20 2011 06:50 prplhz wrote:

On November 20 2011 05:45 wherebugsgo wrote:

On November 20 2011 01:27 prplhz wrote:
@Erandorr

At the danger of being ever more of an idiot I don't think that hiro protagonist is scum. I skimmed some of his earlier games and he always looks like this.

This post from PYP:I looks the same as his posts here, he never says anybody is scum. He mostly just focuses on who is town. Now, I know that there was a mayoral election on day1 in PYP:I but people still had to scum hunt. Also his logic was way off as illustrated in posts like this. I think his posts in that game looks a lot like his posts in this game, he is trying, in his own peculiar way, to create what he think is is a good townie atmosphere.

The most townie tell for hiro protagonist in my opinion is that he voted for Mr. Wiggles as fourth. I don't think the lynch was certain at that point and I don't think that he bussed Mr. Wiggles. While sandroba had said that he liked the Mr. Wiggles lynch he had not voted yet and I don't think that anybody would bus their scum buddy on day1. I don't think scum would want any of them to die on day1 since that would give town 3 lynches to find the last scum, that's really uphill.

I would like to lynch wherebugsgo. The simplest explanation is that scum don't want to die day1, don't draw attention to each other, and that overly newbie play is probably because someone is ... very new at this game. This leaves wherebugsgo.

Also, I don't hate wherebugsgo's play, I think he's pretty good at mafia both as scum and as town, but whatever.

I don't like the no lynch idea.

I don't see what you are seeing in those posts, but hiro's posts in this game do not look like that. Also he's not focusing on finding townies in this game, and I don't even think the two games are comparable.

Lastly, if the bolded were the case then I am not scum. I wanted Wiggles to be lynched, but I thought hiro was a better choice. If I were scum, I would've acted upon the fact that there were four votes left and hammered Wiggles. I'm very decisive as scum and not afraid of starting arguments, but I am afraid of things that make me look bad long term. Not hammering wiggles, I admit, made me look really bad. I also straddled the fence because I was unsure between hiro and wiggles, though my gut kept saying hiro was the better lynch.

Ofc, at this point we don't know if hiro is scum or not, so I could very well still be right. I reasoned after the flip that it was unlikely though, since hiro voted fourth on Wiggles. I was the one who pointed this out to Meapak, who said the focus should be on me+hiro. If I were scum why would I point that out to Meapak, and basically give him a free pass to attack me? If I were scum I would have no interest in giving information to town, that would work against my win condition. I could have simply let Meapak chase after hiro because he missed the fact that hiro was the fourth vote on Wiggles.

He is focusing on finding townies. Maybe this is because he doesn't trust his own scum hunting abilities and instead he tries to find townies that he can trust. I think he has more confidence as scum, since he knows he's wrong and that he can't possibly he right it's easier to be more assertive. You even complained about it yourself that his list of reads didn't contain a single scum read.

Yes, it made you look bad that you didn't hammer Mr. Wiggles. You can say that you wanted him lynched as much as you want.

You pointed out something that 6 townies would have figured out eventually (I knew it, I would have stated it if you hadn't). These are easy points for scum to get town credit, you point out something that's important but that's going to be figured out in a short while anyway.

There is nothing to suggest that hiro is looking for townies any more than he is looking for scum. I don't know how you can come to this conclusion when hiro hasn't even said anything about it himself.

Second, when the hell have you seen hiro play scum? How would you know how he would play scum, or what kind of confidence he would have as either alignment?

And I don't believe I complained that it contained no scum reads. He called meapak scum, but he didn't call me scum. That's what I pointed out. I pointed out the fact that he voted me despite never calling me scum. He said he thought meapak was red, so my concern was the disconnect between his thoughts and his vote.

Lastly, I wouldn't point out something like that as scum about my own scumbuddy before anyone else noticed it. That's dumb, since it wouldn't further my win condition. If I were scum with Wiggles I would have either bussed him when it was apparent he was going to die or I would have destroyed the thread in my attempt to cover it up and distract you guys. I'm not afraid of causing chaos when I'm mafia, because I know I can get away with it if I have to.

And, what's your point? I was the first to point out something important about wiggles, but your excuse is that it would've been figured out anyway, so I'm scum? Your logic makes no sense. I thought wiggles was scummy but hiro was scummier. So I voted hiro. You claim to adhere to Occam's Razor but you ignore the simplest explanation when it's staring you in the face.

Show nested quote +

On November 20 2011 06:50 prplhz wrote:

On November 20 2011 05:45 wherebugsgo wrote:

On November 20 2011 02:17 prplhz wrote:
Meapak_Ziphh is not scum because Mr. Wiggles wrote an analysis on him, I doubt that the scum wanted either of them to get lynched day1, so Mr. Wiggles wouldn't try to make the lynch between the two of them.

This is WIFOM, though.

I agree with you that Meapak doesn't look scum, but for different reasons than this. You can't simply assume scum won't make other scum look bad, because that's not always true.

Think about it, I don't think Palmar would've said he thought the optimal play for scum day 1 was to bus unless it actually has happened. I didn't agree with it earlier but it's certainly possible, we just cannot rule things out based on unbased assumptions. That's how, for example, town often falls into the trap of getting a "confirmed townie" and letting him live.

No, it is not WIFOM that two scum do not want a lynch to be between themselves on day1. They want both to make it through day1.

Palmar said to ignore everything he said during the night including his hard bussing theory, a theory that also surprised me as I wrote in the thread. I don't propose lynching only between those who didn't vote for Mr. Wiggles, but I think that it is very much more likely that we find scum there so that's where I'm looking. We can think about something else later.

On November 20 2011 05:45 wherebugsgo wrote:

On November 20 2011 02:17 prplhz wrote:
jaybrundage is not scum because I think that a newbie would not throw a crazy vote 5 minutes into the game without consulting his much more experienced scum buddy. I don't think Mr. Wiggles would have gone out without giving jaybrundage some advice and I don't think jaybrundage looks coached, his newbieness looks very real.

Wait again, how can you assume this?

One person thinks jay looks coached, you think he doesn't look coached. Don't you see that there is no room here to just assume those things? We can't have it both ways, since between you and Meapak there's nothing objective that furthers one argument over the other.

Yea, it's hard to be objective about whether someone looks coached or not. Same about whether someone looks genuine or fake or fabricate and all that. I can only say that I doubt Mr. Wiggles would go out without giving some advice to his newbie scum buddy. Mr. Wiggles put a lot of effort into the thread when he was about to get lynched, do you really think he just totally ignored jaybrundage in the QT? That would make no sense.

If what you think Wiggles did was effort, then I really have to question what you are talking about.

Wiggles rolled over and died, he did next to nothing to save himself. If you think he put a lot of effort into his case on Meapak then I don't really know if you're reading the same game I am.

Also, when and where did Palmar say to ignore what he said during the night? He died that night, he certainly couldn't have said it in retrospect unless I missed something.

Show nested quote +

What?

Your defense is that you don't push lynches hard, so...then what? lol. You should have no fear of pushing a case if you're town, your apprehension is what is setting me off. I don't understand why you would be apprehensive when I know as town you push ideas very strongly. Your ideas might not always make sense but you don't wait around for people to agree with you before pushing them, normally.

Show nested quote +

On November 20 2011 06:50 prplhz wrote:

On November 20 2011 05:45 wherebugsgo wrote:

On November 20 2011 02:17 prplhz wrote:
I don't like the no lynch idea because I don't think it is a good idea to blues. In case we don't have a detective there's going to be a ton of WIFOM involved, also it could all go wrong. And the way it looks, we're going to lynch jaybrundage, the guy who might be the hardest to get a concrete read on. Scum is never going to shoot him and we'll be left with your null tell still in 3 real days.

1 cop, 1 vt: Best case we win the game, worst case we lose 2 townies.
1 jail, 1 vt: Best case we confirm 3 townies, worst case we lose 2 townies without confirming anyone. There's a lot of WIFOM here.
1 doc, 1 vt: This case is laden with WIFOM as Scum can elect not to shoot to soft confirm doc's target. Most likely I think scum will just shoot two guys and we'll have wasted a lynch for nothing.
1 cop, 1 jail: Best case we win the game, worst case we lose 2 townies. Tons of stuff could go wrong, jailor could jail cop and scum could elect not to shoot that night. What would happen then?
1 cop, 1 doc: Best case we win the game, worst case we lose 2 townies.
1 jail, 1 doc: Best case we confirm 3 townies, worst case we lose 2 townies without confirming anyone.

I like the best case scenarios. I don't like the worst case scenarios. Imagine if we sit here in two days, our doc dead and another townie dead, no one claiming any other blue role and jaybrundage still alive. How would you like that situation? I don't like the idea of putting a huge responsibility on the blue(s) when we have no idea if they have the skill or ability to even further town's goal this game with an additional two nights to perform their actions. Ideally, we win the game but I'd much rather lynch jaybrundage than no lynch. If jaybrundage is at 4 votes at the end of the day I'll switch to him.

This isn't all thought out I admit but I'm not a huge statistics buff. I still think it's not a great idea to no lynch.

I hope you meant three votes and not four, since four votes means jay would already be hammered and you would be wasting your vote.

Most of the rest of the post is rather weird because the best case in all of the situations is that we win the game and the worst case is we lose! (lol wut) I mean, what was the point of all of that?

Yes, three of course.

Yes, it's a weird post. I just wanted to show that I'd thought about it, in the end I arrived at the same conclusion as a lot of other people: it's not worth it. I'm not a statistics buff so I can't give you numbers but it just seems to risky and town is in a good position right now so I don't think it's worth it.

On November 20 2011 05:45 wherebugsgo wrote:

On November 20 2011 03:56 prplhz wrote:
I had that feeling too Meapak_Ziphh, but I thought he'd actually read some guides and then, Mr. Wiggles isn't in the QT and he hasn't written several posts for jaybrundage. Maybe he pointed out some stuff for jaybrundage that he could do or say, but that doesn't make any sense when jaybrundage elects to go for sandroba, which is a crazy move and I really doubt that Mr. Wiggles told him to do that, I should think that he would have told him to go for somebody else.

I'd much rather see jaybrundage hang than a no lynch. He's the second most scummy by far, even though I'd still prefer wherebugsgo. If there are 4 votes on jaybrundage before deadline, I'm gonna switch to him.

@sandroba

What do you want to do tomorrow then if jaybrundage flips green? You said you had a harder time reading newbies than more seasoned players, and I feel that your jaybrundage lynch isn't as much a scum read as it is a you-will-never-get-a-read-on-him-anyway read. Also, you could be dead tomorrow so I hope that you will be active tonight if jaybrundage doesn't flip scum.

As sandro pointed out (sometime yesterday?) sandro actually, from a scum perspective, probably doesn't have much thread cred.

Look at it this way; by the end of day 1 he was one of the most inactive players, he was relatively indecisive, and there was never any suspicion on him. Even now there has been no suspicion on him.

That's an excellent opportunity for scum to open up an attack, since they love players like that. It makes it look as if they are doing real analysis, they are obviously making an original attack, since no one else found that person scummy, and analysis can be fabricated because the player is relatively inactive.

When you think about it like that, it's not so far-fetched that a scum player would attack sandro. The bigger assumption is actually the one you're making, that a new player wouldn't attack sandro since he's a well-known good townie or whatever. That assumption relies on wiggles telling him that, and trying to figure out what scum would do in that kind of situation is very similar to predicting or making sense of night kills; only scum know that.

sandroba has a lot of town credit, he hammered Mr. Wiggles. I don't think you could pick a worse day2 target than sandroba, especially for a new guy since he's gonna get destroyed no matter what. It's a bit hard to judge since jaybrundage is new but I just think he strikes me as a new guy with a very misguided attack on sandroba. A lot of new players think they've figured it out and that they're batman, that's what he uses to explain his late Mr. Wiggles vote too, a crazy plan that makes no sense. I think newbies like these and it fits on him, while I think that it's hard to overplay the newbie card as a newbie.

I disagree with you, sandroba wouldn't be a terrible choice for a scum to attack.

He's not the best and I agree with you on that; so then why would we consider optimal cases? Since jay is new he's not going to play optimally regardless of his alignment. It doesn't make much sense to push sandro from either alignment but it makes more sense from a scum perspective.

Yes, sandro hammered wiggles, but look at how jay keeps talking about Palmar's idea that it's hindering our thought process to eliminate the possibility scum would bus.

This big post on that day, day 2, was the big "?" for me. I was beginning to doubt your townieness. I was having second thoughts about Jay, but in the end he was way more scummy. My second choice on day 2 was you, but I never explicitly stated this.

When I have scumreads I tend to do this because I can trap scum that way. If I set them off early then they will kill me. So I figured I'd check you that night and if the kill still went through then we'd lynch hiro.

On November 20 2011 08:11 wherebugsgo wrote:
We lynch Jay, and if he flips town we brush that off and reevaluate again. We'll probably need to look hard at who might have considered bussing scum, since if Jay is not scum, and since I think Meapak is pretty town, scum would probably be in the prpl/Erandorr/hiro/sandro side.

One thing I do kind of subconsciously is list my best scumread first in a list. The rest of the list tends to be arbitrary but my best read is nearly always listed first. You are listed first here.

On November 20 2011 08:19 wherebugsgo wrote:

Show nested quote +

I value Erandorr's opinion here because he's a confirmed town to me.

Now look at my first post the next day, after you called me scum and Erandorr had died:

On November 21 2011 14:24 wherebugsgo wrote:
Prpl I'd strongly suggest that you build a case, since I really can't say anything other than "I'm not scum" at this point. I've already addressed your earlier points and defending myself will be a further waste of time today. I'll answer any questions you have, but if you are town (which think you are) then you should weigh in on Meapak/hiro.

I tell you that defending myself will be a waste of time. I tell you that I'll answer any questions you have. I am completely complacent. I tell you that I believe you are town and that you should focus on Meapak/hiro.

This is almost a complete 180 from the previous day/night when I began attacking you and telling you that you didn't make sense. After jay flipped town I wanted to kill you. Then my check returned negative so I said, okay, let's go for hiro.

On November 22 2011 09:58 wherebugsgo wrote:
Meapak what do you think of prpl?

Baiting.

I didn't ask if Meapak thought you were scum. I could have easily phrased it that way if I wanted to.

On November 22 2011 10:27 wherebugsgo wrote:
prpl you just keep saying I'm scummy and your case is terrible. You're wasting our time right now.

Again, I don't attack you based on your bad logic even though I could. In fact, in any other situation, whether as scum or regular town, I probably would. But instead I tell you that you're wasting time.

On November 23 2011 14:30 wherebugsgo wrote:
prpl can you explain the point of that post?

You said all that stuff about sandro only to call him town at the end rofl

This is like the fourth or fifth time I address you and I don't attack you.

Didn't you find it weird that I was attacking you on day 2 and then suddenly I just stopped? I went from "dude I feel weird about you and none of this makes sense" to "stop wasting our time, I'm not scum."

Every single time I said something like that I was trying to telegraph to you that I was blue with a town check on you.

wherebugsgo

Japan10647 Posts

November 25 2011 19:54 GMT

#584

I have to think about this.

You're both scummy for almost opposite reasons. (ofc not decon particularly, it's all what Meapak did lol)

wherebugsgo

Japan10647 Posts

November 25 2011 20:51 GMT

#588

prpl can you please reread the thread and make an argument for one of sandro or decon?

Obviously asking sandro or decon will get them to simply attack each other. I need your input on this.

wherebugsgo

Japan10647 Posts

November 25 2011 20:56 GMT

#591

omg. I keep flip flopping today, it's like almost literally 50/50 to me. What sucks is that there are no outside opinions because everyone is dead and you have done nothing but focus me.

If we ask one of decon/sandro they just attack the other and there's no real progress. If I ask you, you just say "pick one."

Right now my brain says sandro is not scum anymore. 12 hours ago it was saying sandro IS scum. In 3 hours will it think the same?

god damn.

If you prefer Meapak/decon, explain.

wherebugsgo

Japan10647 Posts

November 25 2011 21:19 GMT

#594

What do you make of sandro trying to take credit for being the first to point out Wiggles' scumminess day 1?

I take it you think that Meapak was distancing?

wherebugsgo

Japan10647 Posts

November 25 2011 21:39 GMT

#596

alright. I think everything you've said makes sense; thanks for the clarity. I agree with you. I leaned toward Meapak being scum at the beginning of the day when sandro didn't CC me. Then I was confused for a bit since Meapak didn't either, but I realized that would still make sense from his perspective because he didn't know whether you were green or blue. (although he could've probably still jailor CCed me)

I guess he didn't come up with it or something, who knows. Everything else makes more sense now from the perspective that Meapak was scum than sandro. Sandro hammered wiggles, which you might think was a bus, but he was influential in getting Wiggles on the lynch candidacy for day 1, so that pretty much rules out a bus. Meapak all game has been soft FoSing me despite having the exact same reads as me, and that has been making me feel strange. It makes some sense but at the same time it's almost like he was setting me up for the fall this entire time.

Now of course he couldn't do that because I claimed jailor, so he switched off me into the only thing left that makes sense, attacking sandro. Okay. I'm good with that.

Let's lynch decon and win this game.

##unvote
##vote deconduo.

wherebugsgo

Japan10647 Posts

November 25 2011 21:48 GMT

#598

I don't think I'm going to change my mind at this point, anything further will just make my head explode.

Now we just wait till the flip.

wherebugsgo

Japan10647 Posts

November 25 2011 22:06 GMT

#601

On November 26 2011 06:57 prplhz wrote:
I am very uncomfortable with you listening to me. We all know that you're jailer now, you can start being KICKASS again, you can't hide behind your "Oh I'm trying to not attract any scum attention because then maybe they'll kill me and I'm blue!" anymore. I'm not really the best townie around and I can mention 5 things I missed on those points I just made, and it would surprise me if wherebugsgo couldn't mention 500 things more.

If deconduo and sandroba find out that they'd rather lynch wherebugsgo I'm still all for that, lol.

Also, this has been a very fun game. It's really hard to tie scum to somebody else when he dies night1. I think we wasted 2 lynches just blindly following sandroba on his crusade against newer players. These things have left us in a pretty hard situation here at mylo.

lol look at decon now.

he's voting me rofl.

wherebugsgo

Japan10647 Posts

November 25 2011 22:16 GMT

#604

lol prpl he just literally said, "I can't convince you sandro is scum so I'm going to vote with you to try and get the lynch off me."

He just said less than 12 hours ago that my claim was really solid and believable, and that sandro was sure scum. Now within an instant of me changing my mind he enters the thread and says he's voting me because he can't convince you that sandro is scum.

You realize how bad that is?

wherebugsgo

Japan10647 Posts

November 25 2011 22:23 GMT

#607

On November 26 2011 07:22 deconduo wrote:

Show nested quote +

I have 2 choices:

-I die
-You die

I know I'm town. I THINK you're town, but I have no way of knowing. 5% chance to win is better than 0%

The fact that you're using this false dichotomy is hilarious.

Did you completely forget about the choice you had like an hour ago, to convince us sandro is scum?

Now you're not even trying to convince us sandro is scum, you're trying to convince sandro that I'm scum, since you know prpl will jump on that lynch faster than you can say "derp."

Thanks for making my job easy, now I'm 100% sure you're scum.

wherebugsgo

Japan10647 Posts

November 26 2011 02:11 GMT

#614

^^

sorry prpl lolololol

wherebugsgo

Japan10647 Posts

November 26 2011 02:33 GMT

#616

Wiggles why you roll scum all the time

made my job so hard lol

wherebugsgo

Japan10647 Posts

November 26 2011 22:00 GMT

#639

the claim served a purpose. It was to draw out the blue.

I couldn't force a lynch of sandro or decon if I didn't claim.

If anyone CCed me, I would've instantly pushed their lynch. I knew I could outargue them. I knew the likelihood of there being 2 blues was almost nonexistent. I breadcrumbed in advance because jailor was the only role I knew I could argue for and make it useful even if I had no useful information on the decisive day. It wasn't a useless claim. Without the claim it would've been very gimmicky and hard for me to outargue Meapak. Prpl was on Meapak's side and I couldn't afford having 2 auto votes on me. Sandro could easily at that point decide to attack me.

With the claim I put town in a tough spot. I knew prpl would probably still attack me but I knew that if I claimed correctly the argument would eventually come down to sandro+meapak.

Also I held my shot on n3, I roleblocked prpl two nights in a row because I thought he was blue. Also on n3 because I knew the argument had to come down between sandro+meapak I figured if either of them is blue it didn't matter so I roleblocked prpl again. I had the best blue read on him after I shot Erandorr.

I shot Palmar n1 because he was making sense, but also because I wanted to shift suspicion away from me+Meapak onto people who would've "bussed" wiggles. Chose to roleblock Erandorr because he was playing very differently and so I thought he was blue.

N2 I shot Erandorr and RBed prpl for the same reasons, basically. Those two were the only ones giving me a blue vibe so I only focused on them. Sandro and meapak were never really threats because they believed I was town.

wherebugsgo

Japan10647 Posts

November 26 2011 22:02 GMT

#641

also that reevaluation line is something I've said as town before.

Everyone needs to do it, not only scum or town. You reevaluate regardless of the flip.

Obviously in this game if hiro flipped scum it wouldn't be necessary.

Although I think that first quoted line was said day 1, where it didn't matter if hiro flipped town or scum. We'd have to reevaluate, always.

wherebugsgo

Japan10647 Posts

November 26 2011 22:08 GMT

#642

yeah actually I changed the protections at the last minute.

What I said happened was actually 100% true. I was planning on saying that prpl was confirmed town and sandro was confirmed town if I died, and that the players would see why if I flipped.

Instead, I was in a LoL game that lasted too long and I showed up in the thread at 6:05. I actually hadn't thought about who I would've protected if I was the real jailor, so I went with my reads of "who made sense" and when. Day 1 it was actually Palmar who was making more sense than Erandorr, but I switched it around because obviously Palmar died. (oops lol)

Then I said my n2 target was prpl because I thought I could make the most valid argument for him being scummy out of the remaining two players.

Only about 5 seconds after I posted did I realize I could've just said I protted sandro every night.

wherebugsgo

Japan10647 Posts

November 26 2011 22:19 GMT

#646

yup thanks to Rad+Chaoser for hosting ^^ fun game haha

playing scum is so entertaining. Although it must be frustrating to be misled over and over haha. This game was like a rollercoaster, at times I felt I was really close to being found.

Day 4 was the most nerve-wracking for me, I kept f5ing to see if someone had posted something new. Ultimately I had no idea who would get lynched, I just went with the flow.

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