EPTYou said you're okay with lynching wiggles or hiro but your vote is on neither of them. Why are you showing so much indifference?
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wherebugsgo
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You said you're okay with lynching wiggles or hiro but your vote is on neither of them. Why are you showing so much indifference? | ||
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wherebugsgo
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On November 17 2011 10:08 prplhz wrote: @wherebugsgo Which of Mr. Wiggles points give you so much pause that you will not vote him over hiro protagonist even though most other people agree that hiro protagonist probably isn't scum? You said in a post that you were ready to switch to Mr. Wiggles over hiro protagonist unless Mr. Wiggles posted something of value, but you never said what exactly you thought Mr. Wiggles posted that convinced you not to switch your vote. His points on Erandorr make sense. Unlike Palmar, he provided some decent reasoning as to why he suspects Erandorr. IIRC Palmar didn't really expound on why Erandorr is scummy, even when Erandorr asked him to. Also, Wiggles didn't really post anything of value after I said that. My vote switch wasn't necessary, and I didn't like how hiro came in with this: On November 17 2011 08:43 hiro protagonist wrote: Ok, first off, Meapak: This is his first game relevint post: Solid in calling out people. aggresive. I make a point that my post was not worthless, arguing that posting it early in the day and when most people had not posted much the reason that it had worth. To "set the tone" i said. Meapak disagrees and we argue some back and forth when he responds to something I said with this: His logic his correct and I have to admit that my logic is weak, as well as hypocritical. something that WBG will later bring up. he then disperse's for awhile comes back with this: no changing his mind. My conclusion is that he is actively pushing a lynch based on solid logic. also comments about a few others like wiggles, Erandorr, giving his opinion on them. Giving him a second look, I less inclined to think he is scum, but will be watching him as the days go on. now, on to wiggles: so, other than his "throw out a lure" first post he has only posted twice. spolierd for length + Show Spoiler + On November 16 2011 10:36 Mr. Wiggles wrote: I wasn't active. I'm home now, and before that I was just on at school for a half hour at lunch, so I posted something in hopes of there being discussion when I came home, discussion which up until a little while ago has been largely absent. The "let's lynch random player X" train wasn't exactly full of content when it was completely off-hand and based on nothing. Until recently, no one has really produced any actual content, in my eyes. We had 4 pages which were basically Palmar asking to lynch WBG before he'd even posted and then for RNGing the lynch and people telling him no. Neither of those even needed a response, they were just bad ideas with no discussion value besides giving people something to bash on. It's like when someone comes up with a bad plan for town and we spend 10 pages attacking it. Everyone can do it and it doesn't produce real content. Basically, I wanted something to read (which I got), and my post drew out a few reactions which I liked. Erandorr: He's trying hard to be GMarshal. He wants to lead the town along with generic advice and constant appeals to do what's best for town (activity, etc.). This can be seen by the quick reaction to my post, pointing out that it was useless and wouldn't generate good discussion. This is good in and of itself, but he's someone who has to be watched to see if he actually starts to give concrete information on other players in the game, or just continues to act as the "advising townie". Basically, whether he keeps up with the generic advice or starts to contribute concrete and strong analysis. Meapak_Ziphh: Here's our aggressive player. He jumped on my post a lot more forcefully than Erandorr did, before quickly moving on to Palmar, WBG, and then finally Hiro. I'm interested in seeing how he plays after Day 1, because right now he's just cycling through targets, and that could either be him as a townie trying to pressure and find scum, or as scum trying to elicit a response from a skittish townie or blue and take us to a mislynch. He needs to be watched for how he forms his analysis and what the content of it is. jaybrundage: Right now, he's being a sheep. That's either due to the fact that he's new, or because he's trying to blend in. He got called out early, and after that he's just sort of been going along with majority opinion. Case in point: Something to be aware of as we approach LYLO. Wherebugsgo: This is interesting, because he comes in rather later than everyone else and puts effort into attacking my post after most people had left it. It's a case of people jumping on a bad post and repeating what had already been said, because bashing something bad is easy and gets you brownie-points from town. It was mostly left alone until he brought it up again, so I'm curious as to why he did so. He didn't contribute anything that hadn't been said already, so what's the motivation? I mostly see bad players and scum do this, and I don't consider WBG to be a bad player. So, my post got me some information that I consider valuable and more information on certain players than the rest of the thread did before that (besides maybe Hiro). Too bad no one was really dumb and actually responded to my question though, because most townies here are smart enough to know not to and it would have been an easy scum-tell. Now one thing has caught my eye, and thats the following: first in his post he talks about Meapak: Remember this bolded part. So when there is some heat on, says this: So instead of "watching for how he forms his analysis and what the content of it is" he votes on Meapak for disappearing . thats a bit of a jump from "watch this guys post" to "He is scum". the other thing that has bothered me about Wiggles is that he makes no mention of me at all, when the rest of town has put up there thoughts on me. Why leave me out wiggles when I was looking very scummy? So based on what others have said, as well as my own reads, I am be OK with lynching Wiggles. All the rest: I have a funny feeling about Prphz, and I would be OK with lynching him. WBG is slightly more readable and reasonable so far this game, which in its self makes me feel funny but I cant deny his actions have been protown so far. Ill need more time to read over Sand and Palmar  Ill be around till slightly before lynch Pray tell, what in this post actually says anything? Other than that I just think hiro is a better lynch than Wiggles. Wiggles isn't a bad lynch, and like Meapak I'm fine with him dying. It's just weird to me that no one is defending Wiggles at all. Unlike Palmar, I don't believe scum would just autobus in a 2 scum game, particularly day 1. I mean think about it, one dead is half the scumteam gone. On day 1 that's a huge loss, because in this setup that means you have to play the rest of the game by yourself and struggle to catch up. Last game I was in that position, basically, since my other half was sick (<3 Radfield) and Kurumi/RoL were really inactive. Wiggles has received no defense at all and that's incredibly strange. However, while I was typing this post jaybrundage posted this: On November 17 2011 10:10 jaybrundage wrote: i was waiting for who it was decided we would vote for we were gonna vote i dont want to vote hiro for instance and then we cant reach a majority so ##Unvote ##Vote Mr.Wiggles He chose to wait all day until it was ensured that Wiggles was dying, then posted this. He has had no influence on today at all. This vote is meaningless since Wiggles already achieved majority. | ||
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wherebugsgo
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with this flip I think we need to look at jay carefully tomorrow. Hiro's probably still a good bet but I think jay looks worse now. Everyone go back and read with this flip in mind! | ||
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wherebugsgo
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If we use the assumption that scum don't bus then we should look at jay. Meapak why do you think we should consider hiro if we think that scum wouldn't bus? Hiro was the fourth vote on wiggles. Do you think that, if hiro+wiggles were scum and they knew the lynch would come between them, then hiro pushed Wiggles later? Because wiggles was goon? It's a possibility I suppose, but I don't understand why you would say hiro should be a consideration under the assumption that scum wouldn't bus another scum. If you hold that to be true then from your perspective the focus is on me and jay, and probably not hiro. Jay came in and voted Wiggles when it was irrelevant. You and I never voted him. At this point though, I understand why Palmar would say scum would be more likely to bus in this situation. If we subscribe to that notion then the scum is among the rest of the remaining players. At any rate I think this game is locked in. We shouldn't be cocky though, it certainly is still possible we can lose. | ||
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wherebugsgo
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+ Show Spoiler + jk jk jk :p | ||
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wherebugsgo
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On November 17 2011 18:52 prplhz wrote: I don't think that any of the first 5 people voting for Mr. Wiggles yesterday is scum. You just get too far behind if you start out by bussing your teammate, 1v7 is not a great situation for scum. This leaves wherebugsgo, Meapak_Ziphh, and jaybrundage. jaybrundage strikes me a genuinely new at this game, and I think a newbie would be more giddy about the QT, about making plans and talking to his scumbuddy before doing something crazy. I don't think a newbie as scum would overplay his newbieness in his very first game. I don't see him voting for wherebugsgo if he were scum, he'd be a lot more worried about getting caught and about his QT. This leaves wherebugsgo, and Meapak_Ziphh. I think this is very hard to decide but I don't think that Mr. Wiggles would have pushed for Meapak_Ziphh if Meapak_Ziphh had been his scumbuddy. This is again the "You don't bus your teammate 2v7 day1" idea, they wouldn't want the lynch to be between them as one of them would clearly get lynched then. I think if Meapak_Ziphh had been scum, Mr. Wiggles would have had better targets for lynch that day, such as hiro protagonist but also jaybrundage and Erandorr. This leaves wherebugsgo. I think it would be very hard to catch wherebugsgo doing anything overly scummy because, as Palmar stated, he is quite good at scum. - He doesn't hammer Mr. Wiggles on a flaky foundation of "liking his points about Erandorr". - He tries to make us focus on hiro protagonist and jaybrundage after lynch, two people who might appear as easy targets but I doubt that either of them is scum. - He needlessly softclaims power role in his very first post. I don't think that this alone is enough to pin wherebugsgo as scum but by the process of elimination, I think he's the player who is most likely to be the last scum. 1. Didn't hammer Wiggles cause I thought hiro was the better lynch. 2. Hiro/Jay are not easy targets, and I am actually not suggesting we pursue hiro. Did you not read my last post where I asked Meapak why he's ignoring the fact that hiro was one of the votes on Wiggles? 3. What? | ||
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wherebugsgo
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wherebugsgo
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On November 18 2011 11:26 prplhz wrote: ##Vote wherebugsgo I feel kinda good about it. I don't ^^ I still think Jay is the best bet. What do y'all think? ##vote Jaybrundage | ||
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wherebugsgo
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also Q: Do people get notified if they are roleblocked? A: No one gets notified, If the cop gets roleblocked his investigations will return no results. So we should treat any roleblock claims as liars unless they claim cop as well. | ||
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wherebugsgo
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Erandorr you here? I would like to hear those thoughts of yours. Sandro please explain about Meapak. | ||
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wherebugsgo
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On November 19 2011 06:50 jaybrundage wrote: And one more think i did call out Mr.Wiggles on his no content first post I really wish someone would explain to me why they think im scummy : ( problem is, everyone did that. Lol. Everyone who is in this game needs to post their thoughts. As I've said already, I think jay is probably our best bet still, but no one really has commented on anything, besides the post Erandorr made a little while ago. Sadly there's very little to discuss right now because everyone is gone. I can't talk to myself ^^ I don't want to be pursuing the wrong person today. Sandro I'd still like to hear from you about Meapak, and it would be good to see Meapak's thoughts as well. | ||
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wherebugsgo
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On November 19 2011 07:17 Meapak_Ziphh wrote: Well the activity level is disapointing. Alright I'm going to vote WBG and here's why. I'll address the white elephant in the room. WBG and I are the two people who wanted to lynch hiro over Wiggles. I know that jaybrundage didn't as well but I just don't see him as scum. Wiggles flipped scum which obviously casts tons of suspicion on WBG and I. I know I'm town, the reason I thought WBG was town as well was because he called out the same things I saw in hiro and was generally playing what I considered townie. In hindsight that's because WBG has had some very similar reads as myself so I just assumed he'd be town if he was seeing things I saw. Okay, so right off the bat I can tell you probably don't know my scum play very well, since as scum I tend to push suspicions very hard. When situations like this occur, I jump all over them and waste no time in accusing the people with no thread presence. Also, as scum I'm not afraid of starting a fight. In that case why wouldn't I immediately turn on you, since the logical conclusion, as you state, is for the suspicion to fall on me and you? On November 19 2011 07:17 Meapak_Ziphh wrote: I reread WBG’s posts again and found that he soft defends Wiggles in much the same way I did, in particular this post: Let’s take a look at this post. WBG has now said twice that Wiggles is a good lynch. His reasons are that his first post was useless (generic) and that he doesn’t agree with his case on my. Now this comes up several times, WBG defends me. This felt strange to me at the time however, after thinking about it, it makes sense from a scum perspective. Day one I was the only person with an alternative lynch candidate to hiro, the more people I have subtly defending me the more credibility I gain and thus my lynch gains. At the end of this post WBG throws in the little tidbit that “surprisingly some of Wiggle’s points are valid which gives me pause.” This is a great way for a scum to again, subtly change the conversation. He’s again giving someone credit (Wiggles) while at the same time drawing another name into the conversation (Erandorr, who’s been mentioned before by Palmar so it’s possible that this lynch could take off). How does it make sense from a scum perspective? I gain nothing from defending you. I defended you against a case I thought was dumb. It had no merit, that's all. Occam's Razor. Lastly, if I was trying to give Wiggles credit and then trying to draw Erandorr into the lynch conversation, why is it that I have not pushed Erandorr to be lynched? I don't find Erandorr suspicious, despite the fact that he agreed with my argument on hiro but attacked it on the grounds that he didn't like me. On November 19 2011 07:17 Meapak_Ziphh wrote: Now here’s another post after Wiggles has achieved majority but before the end of the day: First he takes time to ever so delicately defend Wiggles while at the same time justifying his vote for hiro. Then he once again calls out hiro and restates that hiro is a better lynch and sows more doubt about the Wiggles lynch. He also ends this post attacking jaybrundage. Now I agree that jay’s vote is absolutely terrible, however if WBG is scum he gains two things out of attacking that post. Not only does he look protown by calling out bullshit, he also sets himself up for day 2 when people are going to be milling around for a target. Jaybrundage is a SUPER easy lynch for that vote and his poor play on day one, WBG is setting the lynch up here. Again, Occam's Razor. I was responding to prpl, that's why I clarified my stance on Wiggles and justified my vote for hiro. And yes, of course I would sow doubt about the wiggles lynch and reinstate that hiro was better, when I genuinely thought that. There is no scum agenda here, just my own thoughts. Lastly, I attacked jaybrundage because no one else seemed to notice what he did. Despite him being a noob, if he said hiro/wiggles were fine lynches all day then why did he keep his vote on me till AFTER wiggles was hammered? He essentially abstained yesterday. Again, you're stretching to call me scum. On November 19 2011 07:17 Meapak_Ziphh wrote: Boom more anti jay posting. This brings his earlier post back into mind. If he’s scum, he knows the flip and can start pressuring Jay before the flip essentially. With the flip he can now begin calling for jay’s death a lot more strongly. These are his response to prphlz’s points. Regarding his second point, hiro was the easy target day one, when he and I were arguing hiro slipped and slipped and slipped. Going after him is easy and gives you cheap town credit. Now on day two Jay is an easy target as well for his poor play and late vote on wiggles. If we assume that scum wouldn’t bus scum day one, then that really leaves WBG, jay, and I. Each of us has a very limited number of targets to choose from to advocate a lynch today. Undoubtedly though, jay is the easiest lynch for WBG to push. Now I understand that it's just as easy for WBG to make a similar case against me. Thus if the town decides to lynch me today I'd understand that and tbh I'd be fine with it as long as WBG is lynched tomorrow. tl;dr: WBG is scum. He pushed the easy target day one and soft defended Wiggles throughout, he set himself up to go after jay today, another easy target. He's actually the only player fully soft defend wiggles (the only thing I ever said was that hiro was a better lynch, I never said I actually agreed with some of Wiggle's points). I disagree that jay is easy to lynch. Think about it. Jay is new and almost no one thinks he's scum. Sandro is the only exception and sandro has not been around to really say anything; he has almost no thread presence. If jay were an easy target and I was scum, I would no doubt believe that other townies would suspect him. I don't believe you are scum, Meapak, so in that case you should reconsider your vote and take a second look at jay. | ||
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wherebugsgo
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wherebugsgo
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After I eat some breakfast I think I'll be set haha. I don't think we should no-lynch today, on skimming the last page I keep seeing this idea crop up. | ||
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On November 19 2011 20:23 sandroba wrote: @Errandor I commented on that already in a previous post. I had a town read on hiro day1, but wiggles not going for him when his ass was on the line seems a bit strange. It can be explained if he thought he wouldn't be able to convince me/palmar hiro was scum OR hiro was indeed scum with him. Hiro is missing though, he said 12 hours but it's been way more than that =/. I wanna hear what he has to say about today's lynch.What's your take on today? Who you think is the best lynch? I noticed this as well; although at first I thought it was incredibly unlikely that hiro would be scum since he put the fourth vote on Wiggles, but then both players said some strange things that didn't quite add up either way. It's WIFOM and honestly I think you could make an equally reasonable argument either way. In such a situation I think we'd simply have to lynch him to find out, since, like you said about Jay, I don't think hiro will flip due to a scum shot. The question is, do we have that liberty? Right now Jay is the best bet for being scum. If he somehow flips town then we have: 5v1 after lynch 4v1 or 5v1 after night (medic prot/no medic prot) Then if we lynch someone and they are not scum again: 3v1 or 4v1, night 2v1 or 3v1 or 4v1 (no medic prots, one, two) On the assumption we have no medics/they don't manage to prot anyone we have two mislynches at our disposal. Of course, if we have no medics then we have a cop, if we mislynch twice and he lives to the last day all he has had to do is check one of the players who is left alive and we win. Keep this in mind if you are the cop. On November 19 2011 21:59 Erandorr wrote: Do you honestly think he would be dumb enough as Scum to draw our attention back to that fact?If he was playing his first game as scum, do you really think he would write something like that about you, an established player and specificly point out that he did not vote at the time you thought he did and that makes your supicion of him a lot stronger? Why would he point out that he held his vote? You think he is actually that bad? He's playing his first game as scum, what makes you think that he knows how any of us play? I really doubt he's gone out and read other games, and other than what people have said about my play in XLV I don't think he knows anyone's history. On November 19 2011 23:00 jaybrundage wrote: Ok well i think Sandroba misunderstood me I was ensuring we got majority. I see how you guys think Sandroba is town. Im curious btw can the mafia still talk to each other after one is dead about the game specifically? Well as i see it WBG and Hiro are the best candidates for mafia. Its wierd i wanted to go for Hiro but after Sandrobas read lots of people backed off. The assumption that mafia wouldnt bus day one is one we cant completely rely on. If Hiro was under suspicion and then Mr.Wiggles Hiro has to act quick to obtain town cred. And still the fact that Mr.Wiggles never once called out Hiro as scum. He did just about call out everyone else tho. Hiro seems like the next logic go for mafia. The only reason i have been so vocal is because i am town and all i got are my voice and my vote And i think the other reason people are defending me is because the DT prolly checked me and i showed up green. What's with the bolded question? What would drive a town player to ask that? I know he's new and all, but even curiosity aside, that's a strange question to ask. On November 20 2011 00:23 jaybrundage wrote: 1. 2. 3.Wherebugsgo 4.Meapak_Ziphh Ok so MZ went really strong after Hiro while we didnt find out if hes mafia or not had it been a mislynch it would of looked terrible on him. As he pretty went balls to the wall trying to lynch him. 5.Erandorr Erandorr was one of the first votes on Mr.Wiggles and has seemed like he is always posting pro town imo Erandorr would not be defending me as town because if he was mafia he would be pushing a mislynch 6.prplhz Again was one of the first votes on Mr.Wiggles and always seems like he is very protown putting in good posts active also defending me so there is not mislynch 7.hiro protagonist 8.jaybrundage 9.Sandroba (I guess ill trust you guys) and i do see what you said about changing the vote from hiro to Mr.Wiggles and because everyone else has seen you as town so gotta trust the vets judgment :p It would only be in the mafias advantage to have a easy mislynch thats also why i was suspicious of you and am also suspicious of WBG. Suprising Hiro hasnt said anything about it. Hiro what do you think of lynching me? Why are you calling people town so easily? This is really strange, I can't make heads nor tails of what's going on with this right now. Either he really is a new townie who is overly trusting of other players, and is now downplaying his confusion by sheeping our opinions so that he doesn't get lynched, or he's a new scum who is doing almost exactly the same thing, except it's a charade. As I've said before, distinguishing bad/new townies from scum is often my weakest point, so I really don't know what to say atm. On November 20 2011 01:27 prplhz wrote: @Erandorr At the danger of being ever more of an idiot I don't think that hiro protagonist is scum. I skimmed some of his earlier games and he always looks like this. This post from PYP:I looks the same as his posts here, he never says anybody is scum. He mostly just focuses on who is town. Now, I know that there was a mayoral election on day1 in PYP:I but people still had to scum hunt. Also his logic was way off as illustrated in posts like this. I think his posts in that game looks a lot like his posts in this game, he is trying, in his own peculiar way, to create what he think is is a good townie atmosphere. The most townie tell for hiro protagonist in my opinion is that he voted for Mr. Wiggles as fourth. I don't think the lynch was certain at that point and I don't think that he bussed Mr. Wiggles. While sandroba had said that he liked the Mr. Wiggles lynch he had not voted yet and I don't think that anybody would bus their scum buddy on day1. I don't think scum would want any of them to die on day1 since that would give town 3 lynches to find the last scum, that's really uphill. I would like to lynch wherebugsgo. The simplest explanation is that scum don't want to die day1, don't draw attention to each other, and that overly newbie play is probably because someone is ... very new at this game. This leaves wherebugsgo. Also, I don't hate wherebugsgo's play, I think he's pretty good at mafia both as scum and as town, but whatever. I don't like the no lynch idea. I don't see what you are seeing in those posts, but hiro's posts in this game do not look like that. Also he's not focusing on finding townies in this game, and I don't even think the two games are comparable. Lastly, if the bolded were the case then I am not scum. I wanted Wiggles to be lynched, but I thought hiro was a better choice. If I were scum, I would've acted upon the fact that there were four votes left and hammered Wiggles. I'm very decisive as scum and not afraid of starting arguments, but I am afraid of things that make me look bad long term. Not hammering wiggles, I admit, made me look really bad. I also straddled the fence because I was unsure between hiro and wiggles, though my gut kept saying hiro was the better lynch. Ofc, at this point we don't know if hiro is scum or not, so I could very well still be right. I reasoned after the flip that it was unlikely though, since hiro voted fourth on Wiggles. I was the one who pointed this out to Meapak, who said the focus should be on me+hiro. If I were scum why would I point that out to Meapak, and basically give him a free pass to attack me? If I were scum I would have no interest in giving information to town, that would work against my win condition. I could have simply let Meapak chase after hiro because he missed the fact that hiro was the fourth vote on Wiggles. On November 20 2011 03:38 Meapak_Ziphh wrote: Sandroba I don't think no lynching is a good idea. Relying on blues just isn't something I want to do. We don't know for sure if we have any of those roles and even if we do they might get sniped and then that ruins the plan. Other things. Re hiro protagonist: I thought it was already established that he wasn't the most suspicious because he was the fourth vote on wiggles. I dropped my case against him when several people pointed that out. Re jaybrundage: After reading the thread this morning I'm starting to think you're being coached. You make these absolutely TERRIBLE posts but then you come back with one or two decent ones. I wonder if anyone else has this feeling? I'm going to have spotty activity today, I'll do my best to keep up on my itouch. Yes, this is why I thought hiro was not scum, but in rereading after seeing this post by Erandorr: On November 20 2011 00:37 Erandorr wrote:+ Show Spoiler + I think Hiro maybe the other Mafia we are looking for. There are a couple of points worth noting. He agrees with Palmar that he would like to vote WBG, but does not follow up. When I ask him about it he repeats "lets start this game off the right foot" and ignores my question. That is not very like a town player. He then proceeds to give us a generic game mechanic post. THat in itself is not bad, but combined with it being in the same post where he ignored my question, it did look kind of bad. Now everything that he did in the early parts of the game are excusable and in now way make him scum. But there are quite a few ties to Wiggles and some really bad behavior On November 16 2011 12:28 hiro protagonist wrote: OK, here are my reads so far: 1.Palmar - null read, nothing to go on really. curious how he will play the last half of day 1. 2.Mr Wiggles- null read. His first post was obviously trying to draw out reactions. both scum and town would can do that so it sheds no alignment. His second post has his reads on everyone one that responded to him. He does not give his opinion on the current lynch target. 3.Wherebugsgo- Ill get to him last... 4.Meapak_Ziphh- leaning Red. Its not anything that he said, more its his overall style in the game so far. He jumps on easy targets AKA both my "generic post" and Wiggle's first post. He undercuts my statement of trying to start things on the right foot by saying its worthless, something that is clearly a mafia agenda IMO. Will be watching. 5.Erandorr- leaning town. Wants to lead town. Im all for it. 6.prplhz- null read. asks me alot of questions, and has done very little else. Could be scum wanting to make me more skittish (which he is btw) last post makes me feel more townie about him. 7.hiro protagonist- townie. says scummy things, but has the right intentions ^_^ 8.jaybrundage- Null His last post is considerably better than those before it. His post are hard to read. Needs to be more clear. Needs to step up. 9.Sandroba- nothing. And now for my vote. and I will place it on WBG. here is why: -Bugs still has the same arrogant aggressive Behavior as every other game hes played. He is wrong most of the time as town, and It has cost the town the game on more than one occasion. -I dont think we should allow someone that can be so obtuse and grating a free pass. -I simply am gonna ignore WBGs for the rest of the game, but that will be easier once he is no longer in it. ##Vote: Wherebugsgo This was his only post with content, or somethign like that. Palmar gave me shit for a similar post ( correctly, although I did have other intentions behind it) but notice how little Hiro is actually saying ,. First of he has nullreads on nearly everybody and his best target at that point is WBG, still for the same reasons he stated at the start. He does not even seem to think that WBG is playing particularly scummy, just very annoying and he does not want to deal with him. Notice also that he soft defends Wiggles twice. He spins Wiggles first post in a pro-town manner and then defends him again when talking about MZ (I bolded those parts) filter + Show Spoiler + Ok, first off, Meapak: This is his first game relevint post: On November 16 2011 04:59 Meapak_Ziphh wrote: I guess this will be one of Palmar's off games then. Anyway, I'd feel good about lynching Wiggles right now. While it's true that the game has been slow there's still stuff to talk about. Wiggles decided to ignore the whole Palmar thing and told everyone to sit back and talk about completely irelevant things for no appparent purpose. Also I'd feel grand lynching hiro. Show nested quote + This post is so unbelievable worthless that my mind has a hard time comprehending it. This is like a textbook example of contributing without contributing and fluff posting. The part in red had me laughing it was so hypocritical. Solid in calling out people. aggresive. I make a point that my post was not worthless, arguing that posting it early in the day and when most people had not posted much the reason that it had worth. To "set the tone" i said. Meapak disagrees and we argue some back and forth when he responds to something I said with this: On November 16 2011 07:13 Meapak_Ziphh wrote: Show nested quote + wow... just wow. This is the worst logic fail I've ever seen. I said your post was worthless because, news flash, it was. Me saying that your post is worthless =/= me promoting spam and tunneling and whatnot. Just because I said you're fluff posting doesn't mean I support "pro mafia ideas." Congrats on becoming a better lynch targer then Mr. Wiggles. His logic his correct and I have to admit that my logic is weak, as well as hypocritical. something that WBG will later bring up. he then disperse's for awhile comes back with this: On November 17 2011 06:22 Meapak_Ziphh wrote: So Wiggles, please show me where I "make multiple aggressive moves towards people before settling on hiro." Your whole little case against me is essentially a rehash of what hiro wrote. It was bad when hiro wrote it and it's bad now. Still, I don't think Wiggles is the best lynch for today. The case against Wiggles started when sandroba decided to start playing the game. Palmar jumped on board and those two got things started. Now the case isn't completely baseless. I've seen Wiggles play third party and scum and his current play does smell suspiciously like that. However I'd rather lynch hiro, who's scummy behavior has only increased since last time I brought him up. Notice that since the case against Wiggles was brought up, hiro has posted ZERO times. This is a huge scumtell in that once the pressure's off he goes back to lurking. A townie would still be contributing, however a mafia would want to get out of the discussion as soon as the pressure is off. no changing his mind. My conclusion is that he is actively pushing a lynch based on solid logic. also comments about a few others like wiggles, Erandorr, giving his opinion on them. Giving him a second look, I less inclined to think he is scum, but will be watching him as the days go on. now, on to wiggles: so, other than his "throw out a lure" first post he has only posted twice. spolierd for length + Show Spoiler + Now one thing has caught my eye, and thats the following: first in his post he talks about Meapak: Meapak_Ziphh: Here's our aggressive player. He jumped on my post a lot more forcefully than Erandorr did, before quickly moving on to Palmar, WBG, and then finally Hiro. I'm interested in seeing how he plays after Day 1, because right now he's just cycling through targets, and that could either be him as a townie trying to pressure and find scum, or as scum trying to elicit a response from a skittish townie or blue and take us to a mislynch. He needs to be watched for how he forms his analysis and what the content of it is. Remember this bolded part. So when there is some heat on, says this: On November 17 2011 00:52 Mr. Wiggles wrote: Meapak_Ziphh on the other hand, has shown that he's definitely scummy. He was trying to play the hyper-aggressive townie, but he hasn't played his role quite well enough. Notice that he makes aggressive moves towards multiple players in a short period of time, before settling on hiro. This is enough to establish himself as "scumhunting", but then he never follows up. There's barely any additional pressure on hiro after his vote, he doesn't try to convince anyone else in the town to vote for hiro, he doesn't respond to what I said about him, and he basically disappears from the thread. This is incredibly scummy, and contrary to everything a townie should be doing after early aggression. ##Vote: Meapak_Ziphh So instead of "watching for how he forms his analysis and what the content of it is" he votes on Meapak for disappearing . thats a bit of a jump from "watch this guys post" to "He is scum". the other thing that has bothered me about Wiggles is that he makes no mention of me at all, when the rest of town has put up there thoughts on me. Why leave me out wiggles when I was looking very scummy? So based on what others have said, as well as my own reads, I am be OK with lynching Wiggles. All the rest: I have a funny feeling about Prphz, and I would be OK with lynching him. WBG is slightly more readable and reasonable so far this game, which in its self makes me feel funny but I cant deny his actions have been protown so far. Ill need more time to read over Sand and Palmar Ill be around till slightly before lynch Then there is the timing of his vote on Wiggles. It was clear that you and Palmar especially seemed to agree that Wiggles was the best lynch. Me Palmar and Prplzh voted Wiggles already and then he decides to show up again with a pretty strong turn and jumps on the Wiggles wagon. He adds some okay-ish arguments and then says that he is "Okay with lynching Wiggles." Is is also "okay" with lynching prplzh but never follows up with that. It is also important to note that he turned on MZ and was considering that he may be town. Same goes for WBG And then there is this post : On November 17 2011 09:54 hiro protagonist wrote: Seems like some people have cold feet? MZ would love to lynch me. Seems like everyone voting wiggles is like "yeah, ok, Ill vote him" wishy washy except Palmar. WBG feels better about lynching me. Jay still has his vote on bugs that was there 5 min into the game lol. Sand has not voted. Anyone have any other thoughts. Meapak, If not me, who would you vote? Anyone here that would rather lynch someone other than me or wiggles? Notice that Hiro voted for wiggles and agreeing that he would make an okay lynch. He never speaks against the lynch directly but still wants to get support for a turnaround away from either him or Wiggles. That post sounds really , really bad to me. He also claims that no one really seems to believe in the lynch, thus carefully stating again that he does not really like it and wants to get it away from wiggles. Yet we never hear a word against the lynch from him. If he was town, wouldn't he still push the targets he believes in? Instead he sort of agrees with the lynch on Wiggles but still does want to get the lynch away from the guy. To me it sounds like a bus where Hiro still tried to get the lynch deflected to someone else. I'm unsure again. On November 20 2011 02:17 prplhz wrote: Meapak_Ziphh is not scum because Mr. Wiggles wrote an analysis on him, I doubt that the scum wanted either of them to get lynched day1, so Mr. Wiggles wouldn't try to make the lynch between the two of them. This is WIFOM, though. I agree with you that Meapak doesn't look scum, but for different reasons than this. You can't simply assume scum won't make other scum look bad, because that's not always true. Think about it, I don't think Palmar would've said he thought the optimal play for scum day 1 was to bus unless it actually has happened. I didn't agree with it earlier but it's certainly possible, we just cannot rule things out based on unbased assumptions. That's how, for example, town often falls into the trap of getting a "confirmed townie" and letting him live. On November 20 2011 02:17 prplhz wrote: jaybrundage is not scum because I think that a newbie would not throw a crazy vote 5 minutes into the game without consulting his much more experienced scum buddy. I don't think Mr. Wiggles would have gone out without giving jaybrundage some advice and I don't think jaybrundage looks coached, his newbieness looks very real. Wait again, how can you assume this? One person thinks jay looks coached, you think he doesn't look coached. Don't you see that there is no room here to just assume those things? We can't have it both ways, since between you and Meapak there's nothing objective that furthers one argument over the other. On November 20 2011 02:17 prplhz wrote: I am never sure that anybody is scum. If I could lynch anybody right now I would lynch wherebugsgo, that's how sure I am but I kinda wanted some input from the rest of you before I made a case and none of you seem too hooked on the idea ... other than jaybrundage. Up till this statement you hadn't said anything scummy, but I find this really strange. You wanted to lynch me, but you didn't push it strongly because you wanted other people's approval? That's backward thinking, you make a case on someone you think is scum and THEN you see how other people react. Waiting to make a case because you want to hear other opinions is rather weird, because you won't usually hear much unless you actually make the case to begin with. On November 20 2011 02:17 prplhz wrote: I don't like the no lynch idea because I don't think it is a good idea to blues. In case we don't have a detective there's going to be a ton of WIFOM involved, also it could all go wrong. And the way it looks, we're going to lynch jaybrundage, the guy who might be the hardest to get a concrete read on. Scum is never going to shoot him and we'll be left with your null tell still in 3 real days.
I like the best case scenarios. I don't like the worst case scenarios. Imagine if we sit here in two days, our doc dead and another townie dead, no one claiming any other blue role and jaybrundage still alive. How would you like that situation? I don't like the idea of putting a huge responsibility on the blue(s) when we have no idea if they have the skill or ability to even further town's goal this game with an additional two nights to perform their actions. Ideally, we win the game but I'd much rather lynch jaybrundage than no lynch. If jaybrundage is at 4 votes at the end of the day I'll switch to him. This isn't all thought out I admit but I'm not a huge statistics buff. I still think it's not a great idea to no lynch. I hope you meant three votes and not four, since four votes means jay would already be hammered and you would be wasting your vote. Most of the rest of the post is rather weird because the best case in all of the situations is that we win the game and the worst case is we lose! (lol wut) I mean, what was the point of all of that? On November 20 2011 03:49 jaybrundage wrote: Maybe im getting better :D yay. MZ the assumption that scum wouldnt bus day one is a mind set thats hurting us. They had a choice either Hiro was going to get lynched. Mr.Wiggles and Hiro tried to get a case against you but it failed. So the only chance Hiro had was to bus Mr.Wiggles. Consider this If Hiro hadnt voted for Mr.Wiggles He would be automatically the next logical target. He didnt have much choice thank you for the compliment :D If you think that mindset is hurting us, why is your vote still on me? On November 20 2011 03:56 prplhz wrote: I had that feeling too Meapak_Ziphh, but I thought he'd actually read some guides and then, Mr. Wiggles isn't in the QT and he hasn't written several posts for jaybrundage. Maybe he pointed out some stuff for jaybrundage that he could do or say, but that doesn't make any sense when jaybrundage elects to go for sandroba, which is a crazy move and I really doubt that Mr. Wiggles told him to do that, I should think that he would have told him to go for somebody else. I'd much rather see jaybrundage hang than a no lynch. He's the second most scummy by far, even though I'd still prefer wherebugsgo. If there are 4 votes on jaybrundage before deadline, I'm gonna switch to him. @sandroba What do you want to do tomorrow then if jaybrundage flips green? You said you had a harder time reading newbies than more seasoned players, and I feel that your jaybrundage lynch isn't as much a scum read as it is a you-will-never-get-a-read-on-him-anyway read. Also, you could be dead tomorrow so I hope that you will be active tonight if jaybrundage doesn't flip scum. As sandro pointed out (sometime yesterday?) sandro actually, from a scum perspective, probably doesn't have much thread cred. Look at it this way; by the end of day 1 he was one of the most inactive players, he was relatively indecisive, and there was never any suspicion on him. Even now there has been no suspicion on him. That's an excellent opportunity for scum to open up an attack, since they love players like that. It makes it look as if they are doing real analysis, they are obviously making an original attack, since no one else found that person scummy, and analysis can be fabricated because the player is relatively inactive. When you think about it like that, it's not so far-fetched that a scum player would attack sandro. The bigger assumption is actually the one you're making, that a new player wouldn't attack sandro since he's a well-known good townie or whatever. That assumption relies on wiggles telling him that, and trying to figure out what scum would do in that kind of situation is very similar to predicting or making sense of night kills; only scum know that. | ||
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wherebugsgo
Japan10647 Posts
On November 20 2011 06:28 Erandorr wrote: Oh shit. I just noticed something. Could all of you guys look at MZ and explain to me why we are not lynching the shit out of him, too? ? | ||
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wherebugsgo
Japan10647 Posts
On November 20 2011 06:50 prplhz wrote: He is focusing on finding townies. Maybe this is because he doesn't trust his own scum hunting abilities and instead he tries to find townies that he can trust. I think he has more confidence as scum, since he knows he's wrong and that he can't possibly he right it's easier to be more assertive. You even complained about it yourself that his list of reads didn't contain a single scum read. Yes, it made you look bad that you didn't hammer Mr. Wiggles. You can say that you wanted him lynched as much as you want. You pointed out something that 6 townies would have figured out eventually (I knew it, I would have stated it if you hadn't). These are easy points for scum to get town credit, you point out something that's important but that's going to be figured out in a short while anyway. There is nothing to suggest that hiro is looking for townies any more than he is looking for scum. I don't know how you can come to this conclusion when hiro hasn't even said anything about it himself. Second, when the hell have you seen hiro play scum? How would you know how he would play scum, or what kind of confidence he would have as either alignment? And I don't believe I complained that it contained no scum reads. He called meapak scum, but he didn't call me scum. That's what I pointed out. I pointed out the fact that he voted me despite never calling me scum. He said he thought meapak was red, so my concern was the disconnect between his thoughts and his vote. Lastly, I wouldn't point out something like that as scum about my own scumbuddy before anyone else noticed it. That's dumb, since it wouldn't further my win condition. If I were scum with Wiggles I would have either bussed him when it was apparent he was going to die or I would have destroyed the thread in my attempt to cover it up and distract you guys. I'm not afraid of causing chaos when I'm mafia, because I know I can get away with it if I have to. And, what's your point? I was the first to point out something important about wiggles, but your excuse is that it would've been figured out anyway, so I'm scum? Your logic makes no sense. I thought wiggles was scummy but hiro was scummier. So I voted hiro. You claim to adhere to Occam's Razor but you ignore the simplest explanation when it's staring you in the face. On November 20 2011 06:50 prplhz wrote: No, it is not WIFOM that two scum do not want a lynch to be between themselves on day1. They want both to make it through day1. Palmar said to ignore everything he said during the night including his hard bussing theory, a theory that also surprised me as I wrote in the thread. I don't propose lynching only between those who didn't vote for Mr. Wiggles, but I think that it is very much more likely that we find scum there so that's where I'm looking. We can think about something else later. Yea, it's hard to be objective about whether someone looks coached or not. Same about whether someone looks genuine or fake or fabricate and all that. I can only say that I doubt Mr. Wiggles would go out without giving some advice to his newbie scum buddy. Mr. Wiggles put a lot of effort into the thread when he was about to get lynched, do you really think he just totally ignored jaybrundage in the QT? That would make no sense. If what you think Wiggles did was effort, then I really have to question what you are talking about. Wiggles rolled over and died, he did next to nothing to save himself. If you think he put a lot of effort into his case on Meapak then I don't really know if you're reading the same game I am. Also, when and where did Palmar say to ignore what he said during the night? He died that night, he certainly couldn't have said it in retrospect unless I missed something. On November 20 2011 06:50 prplhz wrote: Look through my games. I doubt I've ever pushed any lynch harder than this. What? Your defense is that you don't push lynches hard, so...then what? lol. You should have no fear of pushing a case if you're town, your apprehension is what is setting me off. I don't understand why you would be apprehensive when I know as town you push ideas very strongly. Your ideas might not always make sense but you don't wait around for people to agree with you before pushing them, normally. On November 20 2011 06:50 prplhz wrote: Yes, three of course. Yes, it's a weird post. I just wanted to show that I'd thought about it, in the end I arrived at the same conclusion as a lot of other people: it's not worth it. I'm not a statistics buff so I can't give you numbers but it just seems to risky and town is in a good position right now so I don't think it's worth it. sandroba has a lot of town credit, he hammered Mr. Wiggles. I don't think you could pick a worse day2 target than sandroba, especially for a new guy since he's gonna get destroyed no matter what. It's a bit hard to judge since jaybrundage is new but I just think he strikes me as a new guy with a very misguided attack on sandroba. A lot of new players think they've figured it out and that they're batman, that's what he uses to explain his late Mr. Wiggles vote too, a crazy plan that makes no sense. I think newbies like these and it fits on him, while I think that it's hard to overplay the newbie card as a newbie. I disagree with you, sandroba wouldn't be a terrible choice for a scum to attack. He's not the best and I agree with you on that; so then why would we consider optimal cases? Since jay is new he's not going to play optimally regardless of his alignment. It doesn't make much sense to push sandro from either alignment but it makes more sense from a scum perspective. Yes, sandro hammered wiggles, but look at how jay keeps talking about Palmar's idea that it's hindering our thought process to eliminate the possibility scum would bus. | ||
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wherebugsgo
Japan10647 Posts
We have two shots before we need to make a call that will make or break the game. That's a great position to be in, particularly as today and tomorrow will be our information days. We lynch Jay, and if he flips town we brush that off and reevaluate again. We'll probably need to look hard at who might have considered bussing scum, since if Jay is not scum, and since I think Meapak is pretty town, scum would probably be in the prpl/Erandorr/hiro/sandro side. | ||
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wherebugsgo
Japan10647 Posts
On November 20 2011 08:10 jaybrundage wrote: WBG whats your thoughts on lynching hiro? I don't think he's the best lynch for today. Erandorr made some very good points about him, but honestly being the fourth vote on Wiggles, and how he has played since then has given me doubt. When I reread the thread after wiggles and palmar flipped I wasn't confident in my day 1 read anymore. If you are indeed town though, we'll probably need to reconsider hiro again. | ||
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