Newbie Mini Mafia

On October 31 2011 07:11 Toadesstern wrote:


no the point is, that as a dt or medic you don't want to look like a dt or medic for mafia, because that would be an easy hint for them. So let's say we got 9 people and all of them are posting equally. In that case mafia will have a hard time figurering out who's a blue.
If we got 9 people, 6 of them are talking a lot and 3 are not, mafia will have a slight clue and have to decide if it's a guy who just isn't playing this game activ or if it's a guy who does not want to get killed for some reason.
I don't want to make a possible dt or medic stand out. I'm saying, that in my opinion posting nothing at all WILL make them stand out and vulnerable.
Just take into consideration when I actually made that post: About the time when 4 of us haven't made a post in this thread. Maybe it's 3 I don't know but you get the idea. I just wanted to make sure that there's nobody thinking "oh crap I have to do as little posts as possible as a dt to not give away my secret identy" because that's what came to my mind last game (which was my first game) and I was a dt. I had to change it pretty soon :p

Haven't read page 11, am reading right now and will maybe add something. This is just to clear up my "intentions" about that "make medics and dts" post.

On October 31 2011 07:50 Toadesstern wrote:


yeah but that's just what I said. We know each other a bit so I think both look perfectly fine. Zanfas does look a bit strange since he's posting so much but that's a good thing and I'm guessing he improved right now :p
Ciry is just like what he did last game and well ciry said something like that about me. So that is why I don't think a statement like "yeah I played last game with him and it kinda looks legit" is scummy and I got to disagree.

oh and yeah sry hyshes, will keep quoting from now on. I'm not used to such a fast thread :D
So this post was about harb and my last sentece was directed to hyshes. Those 2 before were more of a general post talking to everyone.

was directed to hyshes.
everything clear now?

On October 31 2011 07:53 IMABUNNEH wrote:


2 posts in almost 24 hours is almost as bad as 24 hours of nothing though, and as a reference, the people on both sides of the pond (myself and Toads for Europe, for example) have multiple posts. Have you been working all Sunday or something?

On October 31 2011 06:57 hyshes wrote:


You tend to say very little with very much words.. That seems to me like you are overcompensating for the lack of conclusive arguments.

On November 02 2011 00:48 Toadesstern wrote:
got home from university now and yeah let's get a little analysis what happened last day.

Let's just pretend we don't know a thing. In that scernario everything's possible. I could be green, I could be red, Skrammen could be green and Skrammen could be red. Same with Zanfa and risk but I'm going to talk about Skrammen and me since the two of us are the main subjects in this thread right now.

1) Both red
Let's start with the easy one and pretend both Skrammen and I am red. In that case the two of us are stupid and I'm blaming him to be mafia while he is blaming me to be mafia. I know we're not really blameing each other but I did vote for him so I guess that counts, too. That does not sound like a good plan for mafia imo.

2) Both green
Next possibilty: We're both green. If that turns out to be true towns horribly fucked. Not because of the fact that both of us are green but since we didn't even get a majority on a green while mafia is probably even helping us or at least spreading their votes and therefore we might have 1 or 2 mafias on Skrammen as well. And still we don't get a majority. If that's true we got a major problem because we're not going to get a lynch anytime soon (= free kill for mafia without having the chance to kill a mafia or at least get GRANTED information). => pretty much everyone could be mafia because they're able to vote whoever they want without having to manipulate votes at least a bit.

3) Skrammen green, I'm red
In that case town got a heavy problem as well. Skrammen was closest for having a majority and it's pretty much the same as the second possibility: I'm mafia and I went for a wagon issued by someone else and still town hasn't got a majority.
That would mean that out of those 6 votes probably 2 or 3 votes are issued by mafias (my vote at least + maybe my buddies) while 3 townies voted for Skrammen, 3 voted for me, 2 voted for Zanfa and 1 voted for Chocolate. That's not exactly what you want to do as town, no matter what.

4) I'm green, Skrammen is red
In that situation mafia is probably not going to vote for skrammen in the first place. They want to safe their buddy as long as it's possible without leaking information of who actually is mafia out of votingbehaviors right before the deadline. Also this would mean we got at most 1 mafia voting for Skrammen (that is if they got balls). I doubt they got the balls to put their mafia buddy on a 6-votes position themselves, just to make those other 2 mafias really hidden. There could always be a hero votechange 1h before the deadline which would have made a lynch. So in that scenario we probably got about 5 townies voting for Skrammen, maybe it's even 6, while mafia is trying to get us on someone else. Therefore they got either 2 votes on me, 1 vote on me + 1 vote on zanfa or 2 votes on zanfa (the third one is Skrammens vote on choc), while 3 townies did not choose to vote for Skrammen.


For me it's kind of clear. I can rule out possibilty 1 (let's face it, noone's that stupid).
I think 3 is pretty unlikely. I just think town should be able to get more than 3 votes on a single person without mafia therefore I think there's no mafia votes on Skrammen. If there are we're really fucked.
2 and 4 could be possible in my opinion. Having 5 or 6 townies able to focus their votes on 1 single person while 3 are not sure what to do sounds reasonable for me (compare with example 3: I don't think we got only 3 people being able to focus their votes while the rest is spreading their votes for whatever reason).
Therefore I'd say its 4 > 2 > 3 > 1

I'm still not saying I think Skrammen's 100% sure red, and if he's green than risk is green as well. But I think it's a better explanation than the two of us being green or 'me red + Skrammen green' or both red.

On October 31 2011 07:28 Toadesstern wrote:

Just to clear things up since you brought that statement last game too. Remember my summary last game? I defended you as well and said that I'm pretty sure you're town. Yeah I was a dt but I never checked you since I checked all 3 reds and still knew you where town. I just wanted to tell the other guy so because he might not find out himself.
You told me that looks like scum too and I just got to disagree here. Right now I think you posting little is normal because I saw the last game while a few think it's scummy.
A couple guys think I made a scummy post by telling dts not to look like dts and ciry said he doesn't think so, which is a defence for me as well and I haven't got something scummy from him until now.
So I got to say that logic is flawed :p

I still can't believe how that one guy thought I meant to make dts stand out of the crowd, looks a bit strange as if he wants to get town on someone, but that's just my opinion right now and I got to check what he posts the next couple days :p

Ok and now I read that thing from chocolate as well. I want you to explain that. Why is it a fos on ciry.
I could understand a fos on zanfa although I don't believe it's strange since it totally fits in his style.
Well and ciry is the only guy who started a real discussion. Everyone spammed a bit to get something going at all an he went for real talks, like "explain your thoughts" and stuff and from what I see it looks like he is trying to get people to make quality posts rather than spam. Totally fits in his style as well.
Go ahead, blame me for defending, which I still think is wrong at this point, but I want your explanation on this. We obviously got very little right now but given what we have there's definitly people around looking more scummy.

On October 31 2011 08:26 Toadesstern wrote:
Ok I still would like chocolate to explain why he got a fos on ciry. It might be right (I don't think we got a reason to think so but I won't say it's wrong on day 1 without information ) but if I had to make a list of people from 1 to 12 where 1 is the guy I think is the most likely to be town and 12 the guy most likely to be mafia in my opinion I'd place ciry somewhere in those top 50% spots.
I still think that this is strange. The only reason behind this, as far as I understood it, was ciry "defending" zanfa ?

Also, keep in mind getting agressive is kind of a town tell. At least that's what happens to me.
Just imagine you post something you think is ok or good, someone quotes it and makes it look like you're scum although you said something totally different, or at least wanted to do so.
In that situation I WOULD probably be pissed. At least that's part of the "paranoid-answer" I did on page 9 when you guys asked me about the my post about dt or medics. I just did not think someone could interpretate it that way and thought it's clear and therefore I don't have to explain it. Turned out I was wrong.
To sum it up: It might be something but I think it's more of a human nature thing getting into him.
Let's face it, if someone accuses you to be mafia and you know yourself you're not the first thing you think is wtf is up with you dude, just reread what I posted.
Also he did the exact same thing in the last game. He voted on day1 for me and switched later on his vote and only tried to make me talking.

I think those people desperatly trying to point at someone telling us to vote for those guys look way more scummy right now, which is why I still want that explanation from choc.

On October 31 2011 09:08 Toadesstern wrote:
Oh and a final note about all those fos things. I still think we should go for a lurker on day-1 unless we got something that sounds scummy and until now I don't think we got something.
If we lynch someone who's lurking we got a decent chance of hitting a mafia. Obiously not every mafia style involves lurking.

But the two most important parts are (one already mentioned earlier): We force mafia into talking. That's not bad for mafia because of talking but because of talking a lot means a lot of chances of slipping. That's exactly what we want. The more mafia talks, the more likely we're to find something decent out of an analysis. Especially post death. For those who are reading the thread of the last game, take a look at my last post (for those who don't want to read the whole thing just read that one post):
Klick me!
Just take a look at my analysis. We had 1 guy who made a total of 2 (!) posts and thats all and those other 2 guys made pretty much no posts, as well and STILL we got a decent analysis out of me, not because of what they said but because of what dead, confirmed mafia said (pretty much everything I said about zanfas is stuff from dead mafias except for his one analysis). Just as an example how important this is. That way I at least knew zanfas was 99% town last game.

A second point would be our town situation. Of course lynching a mafia is what we want but let's think about what happens if we turn out to lynch a town.
If we end up killing a lurking town that's bad because we ended up killing a townie instead of a mafia but killing an active townie is just really bad because killing a townie sucks and on top of that we're destroying townsituation by killing those guys posting.
At least as long as it's out of the blue like now.

On October 31 2011 17:31 Toadesstern wrote:
Times mentioned in this thread from hosts are in TL-time I guess? So saying day will end 03:00 means 3:00 tl.time right? Since there's nothing else I'm guessing so but would like to get a yes on that

Also, I'm voting for chocolate. I still think it's a bit strange but I don't like that fosing around like a mad man. Could have been someone else who did so. He just turned out to attack me and since I know I'm not mafia that does sound a bit strange to me :p
I'm at university right now, will be back in 4 hours so maybe we got something out of this when I'm back.
##Vote Chocolate

On November 01 2011 00:53 Toadesstern wrote:
sadly noone made a statement about my vote ;(
I actually did not want to vote for chocolate but I'd ve loved to see those reactions from people about that who are already suspicios.
first of all

Unvote## Chocolate

What do you people think about hyshes and risk? Risk is the one I'd like to see make a couple posts since he basicly said nothing and I don't know anything about him. While hyshes... I don't know, could be anything :p

On November 01 2011 02:29 Toadesstern wrote:
Ok I'm going with skrammen as well, we need to get a lynch and although I would have liked to get someone else I think going after him is fine, too.
##vote Skrammen

Just to get this clear since at least I did not know last game: It's not a simple majority vote, we need 7 people to vote on someone or it's a no-lynch.
Having 4 votes on someone and 8 votes spread out is not going to get the guy with 4 votes lynched.

On November 02 2011 02:03 Toadesstern wrote:
the problem with 3 is that it would mean that we're not able to get more than 3 votes focussed on someone and I think that is very unlikely because that's 6 (!) guys who are spreading votes. Not the fact that town would be screwed if 3 (pretty much the same as 2) turns out to be true is the thing that makes it the easiest / most likely explanation.
I don't know how you guys approach this game but I figured people know that we need to lynch people to get something going.

I got to add that I probably forgot one solution. Maybe people didn't read the first post in this thread carefully and did not read my post about it pointing it out again: This game has no simple majority rule. Having 6 votes on Skrammen was not enough to get him lynched although he was the one with the most votes on the list. If there's a couple of people who did not know that for whatever reason, it would be another explanation for why we're not even able to lynch a townie (talking about scenario 2 and 3) because they thought 6 on Skrammen is already enough to get them lynched and no need to change votes.