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On November 07 2011 00:38 Toadesstern wrote:Show nested quote +On November 07 2011 00:13 Ciryandor wrote:
Finally, I leave to anyone who wants to follow up on my Day 1 post why they think Skrammen is a good lynch. Right now, my suspicions are on Drem and Skrammen, with xsksc being a close third. Toad and Bunneh's scumminess depend on each other, if one flips green or red, chances are the other is the same. Zanfada relies a bit on drem's flip as well. Chocolate and sermo are both non-tells, while HoD is closest to confirmed town in my eyes. pretty much sums up my thoughts as well except for maybe xsksc. I would not put him on my 3rd place of my mafia list, maybe on 4 or 5. Could you please do me a favor and tell me what you think about what I pointed out about drem just before you started doing your analyses? Because that was actually the most flashing part for me when I searched his history because I thought it's just not fitting his usual style.
Well, when you add his later Day 2 posts (the November 3 timestamps that you quoted) to that post he did and the response to Zanfada you highlighted, it certainly reinforces the fact that he hasn't been consistent, and one could certainly argue that it's a clear scum-tell. In any case, the fact that we have you, drem and skrammen so linked to each other in potential green/red flips and suspicions (accusations/counteraccusations and defenses or lack thereof) means that we'd be wasting vote cycles if we look with the null-tells. I'll assume given the no kill that it's a medic and not some convoluted scum trick, and the medic only gets stronger in stopping scum KP the better he understands who scum want/need to shoot, as it certainly relies on probabilities as well.
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I've been looking a bit into Drem. I'm going to quote Ciry's analysis on his first posts, because I honestly have little to add to it.
+ Show Spoiler +On November 01 2011 01:42 Ciryandor wrote:Drem's post record is the following; and I feel he's worth looking at as well: Show nested quote +On October 30 2011 11:27 Drem903 wrote:
Whoever killed GMarshal must hate friendship, quite a bit.. and ponies. He is probably the worst type of scum to ever exist.
On October 30 2011 13:48 Drem903 wrote:
using extensive analysis, and some complex theory. I have decided to blame xsksc for the murder, because his name is impossible to pronounce, I see a parallel with the last mini game, where scum wanted to jump the gun a bit using some very speculative reason to create an FoS on someone; but in this case this is tempered by the fact that he did not vote on xsksc. Then when he realizes nobody really bit his bait: Show nested quote +On October 30 2011 15:39 Drem903 wrote:
If you're telling the truth that you're name really is just a random assortment of levels, then i will no longer blame you. I had assumed that you were possessed by some kind of devil, hence the inhuman name. He plays it off as an attempt to stir conversation... Show nested quote +On October 31 2011 00:53 Drem903 wrote:
The thing with xsksc was pretty much just a joke to try and get the ball rolling. The only person that has really garnered any suspicion from me is bunneh, and that's only because his posts seem to be "posts for the sake of posting" rather than trying to really get anything dones.
He only seems to post to try and appear active. Then goes on the offensive after someone does commit to a real vote on a person. Show nested quote +On October 31 2011 01:19 Drem903 wrote:
Are you able to change you're vote after you have voted?
If you're not able to change you're vote, then we also have to be very suspicious of zanfada. We both randomly chose a person to try and encourage discussion, but he actually voted. If you can't change you're vote, then that seems suspicious to me, as he seems in a hurry to lynch someone (anyone). If you can change you're vote, then it's no big deal, but it's still something to consider. After that post, he basically leaves the suspicion on Zanfada, which by now looks good enough for other people to lynch. Show nested quote +On October 31 2011 05:36 Drem903 wrote:On October 31 2011 05:04 IMABUNNEH wrote:There was no coming to each others' defense, as he has said nothing in my defense. Hmm good point, that'll teach me to reread better. We still haven't heard from Skrammen though, and I still think Toad is dodgy. Since other than telling people they should post more posts, he hasn't really said anything. Zanfada also has not posted at all since his initial accusation, so he should also be one to consider for now.
+ Show Spoiler +[QUOTE]On November 01 2011 03:28 Drem903 wrote:
I'll be the first to admit that i am not particularly talkative, although that's mostly because i don't have regular computer access at school.. I have been reading the thread through, and although i still hold zanfada in suspicion, i will also have to agree that SKrammen has not really contributed that much either.
His only notable post just recounts information that everyone should know (though some may not have read the thread too carefully and could've forgotten). Although i feel the need to point out, that SKrammen did call out Zanfada for being hasty to vote (even if he could later rescind the vote). If they were both scum, then it wouldn't make sense for them to call suspicion upon one another.
Zanfada also hasn't posted in a while, and the only notable parts of his posts were: asking the blues to post more frequently (though not to identify themselves), and to defend himself from hacklebeasts own accusations.
So, the people i'm currently very suspicious of are: SKrammen and Zanfada. When i get more time to really look at everyone's posts this might change, but it's just those 2 for now.
##vote Zanfada
Here he continues with his accusations of Zanfada and votes for him. But in his post ciry said this:
+ Show Spoiler +After that post, he basically leaves the suspicion on Zanfada, which by now looks good enough for other people to lynch.
Now, at this time other people had been making suspicion of Zanfada, myself including. Only after this did he decide to vote him. He attempts to stay under the radar by voting a secondary lynch target, and kept his vote when the bandwagon came and went.
His defence:
+ Show Spoiler +
@Harbinger. I voted for Zanfada because he, at the time, was the person i was most suspicious of. In retrospect i should have looked at SKrammen's posts more, but at the time he [SKrammen] wasn't the most suspicious to me. Now, although SKrammen is still suspicious (he completely ignored toad's analysis a page back, and only responded to defend himself from Zanfa), i am starting to put a lot more thought in the the claim that Toadesstern is a major suspect. (Zanfa i am now unsure of, and hope to see more posts from him before i say anything more on him).
Mostly because he seems adamant about convincing us that he is town, and constantly restates that point over and over again. Which seems like something mafia would do if they were desperate to avoid a lynch.
As I've stated more than once when I looked at the voting patterns; it would make sense for the mafia to avoid being on the list of voters when I got lynched and flipped green.
A second post where he defends his actions:
+ Show Spoiler +I guess i don't honestly have a good reason as to why i did not vote for SKrammen in the end. The thing was i was only suspicious of those 2, and the one i was suspicious of to the point of voting was Zanfada. Although i was reary of SKrammen, i did not see him as suspicious to the point of lynching.
Although it is noteworthy to say that Toad does have a point about Risk not really posting that much. He's actively defending SK, although he immediately tries to spurn attention back on SK when he is called into question, and a few of his posts are just updates on him lurking. He has also tried to get people to look at Toad.
So if Toad is mafia, then risk probably isn't. If risk is mafia, then toad isn't, and SKrammen is also mafia because risk wouldn't defend him if he wasn't.
Again, this does not really change anything as far as I am concerned. But I am not sure if these "If x is mafia then y is town"-arguments are always valid. What if we lynch toad only to find out he is a townie?
+ Show Spoiler +@SKrammen
If i had changed my vote to you, and you flipped green, everyone who voted for you would have been under heavy suspicion of being scum. So that's 7 people, of which i was 1, so what reasoning would i have to block you're vote if i was mafia? I wouldn't be that much more suspicious than any of the other 6.
For every towny that dies the mafia becomes stronger. If was mafia and had changed my vote to you, and i had said you were suspicious so it's not unlikely for a person to decide to agree with the majority if they had similar convictions, then why would i not vote for you to get you out of the way? The fact is, i didn't have enough conviction to accuse you as i didn't feel that you were necessarily scum. I wasn't convinced enough to take that risk. Bad townie play? possibly. Even worse mafia play? i would believe so.
He has a point now. But I would like someone elses input on this here - to me it makes sense for him not wanting to be one of the people who voted for me, but would you consider it bad mafia play to block it? I'm not so sure anymore.
I would like for you to tell us what you feel about Zanfada, and who do you think is Town?
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So I thought I'd have more time now, as the original plan was my gf got back this evening, but instead she'll apparently be back within the next 15 minutes now. As such, I don't think I'll be able to make a big case post now (maybe I'll still get one up before the deadline? :-/), but I thought I'd make some contributions while I can.
@Skrammen regarding Drem, possibly a bit outdated, but: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=278558¤tpage=23#444
Might have the info you want.
Unless something comes up to change my mind, I am willing to vote for the following 4 people today: Skrammen, Chocolate, xsksc, Drem. With a preference in order of xsksc, Chocolate, Skrammen, Drem.
Should be back in time to change as somehow I doubt this one will garner enough votes to ensure a lynch, but for now
##vote xsksc
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On November 07 2011 04:23 HarbingerOfDoom wrote:So I thought I'd have more time now, as the original plan was my gf got back this evening, but instead she'll apparently be back within the next 15 minutes now. As such, I don't think I'll be able to make a big case post now (maybe I'll still get one up before the deadline? :-/), but I thought I'd make some contributions while I can. @Skrammen regarding Drem, possibly a bit outdated, but: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=278558¤tpage=23#444Might have the info you want. Unless something comes up to change my mind, I am willing to vote for the following 4 people today: Skrammen, Chocolate, xsksc, Drem. With a preference in order of xsksc, Chocolate, Skrammen, Drem. Should be back in time to change as somehow I doubt this one will garner enough votes to ensure a lynch, but for now ##vote xsksc
How did I miss that... Well, I guess that answers it then, unless you got something else to add, Drem? I've also been thinking about somthing else:
+ Show Spoiler +His only notable post just recounts information that everyone should know (though some may not have read the thread too carefully and could've forgotten). Although i feel the need to point out, that SKrammen did call out Zanfada for being hasty to vote (even if he could later rescind the vote). If they were both scum, then it wouldn't make sense for them to call suspicion upon one another.
Wouldnt it make perfect sense for us to FoS each other if we were both mafia? And wouldnt it make sense for you to put suspicion on Zanfada if you two were mafiabuddies?
I know this is nothing solid nor any evidence of anything, I'd just like some input on this, because I'm not able to make up my mind about this. The activity has really dropped here the for the last few hours, and the lynch deadline is coming up fast.
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On November 07 2011 04:23 HarbingerOfDoom wrote:
Should be back in time to change as somehow I doubt this one will garner enough votes to ensure a lynch, but for now
##vote xsksc
Do you have some form of argument for this? I don't think this late in a game a vote can exist without some reasoning posted.
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+ Show Spoiler +Toadesstern
IMABUNNEH
sermokala
xsksc
HarbingerOfDoom
SKrammen
Toadesstern
Drem903
xsksc
Who has votes on them from who. With the voting deadline not too far away, and myself needing to get to bed early today, I'd like to see some kind of decision. I don't want to end the day without a lynch. With votes this spread people need to make choices. There hasn't been that much discussion today (I'm as much to blame as anyone else for that), and we're still missing votes from people.
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I'd love to defend myself harb, but you haven't given a SINGLE reason why you voted for me. I'm really puzzled by this, if you want me lynched why wait so long in the day without giving anyone some reasons to vote for me? I'm EU so I cant be up until the deadline, are you trying to start a bandwagon on me when I won't be online to defend myself?
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My read on people other then toad is pretty simple.
Skrammen has been lurking enough to be scum to me with responding only to other people and heavily quoting other peoples posts. Its an opposite I know to toads more spammy amount of posts but I see effort to hide scum status by the both of them I'm just more sure of toad at this point. Hes been supporting the lynching of people who arn't popular to lynch which I totally think that hes doing to distance himself from the other scums and/or trying to block lynching on the whole.
I don't buy any of this drem is scum he seems just like a townie or maybe something more. but not scum.
What I don't think people have been putting enough focus on is a few other people.
HarbingerOfDoom
He seems really experienced. or hes putting way too much effort into being a "veteran" townie and has been leading a lot of the lynches I think to this point. With all of them being wrong and poorly supported I don't trust him and I think more people should be questioning him. He has too much confidence I feel for someone trying to find out whos going to kill him and I don't like that. He is the first to post and apologies for starting the wagon that killed hy? hy said that toad was scum and accused hod and was cast away for this.
IMABUNNEH
Hes british and I found out that I'm ancestrally from Belgium and that makes me suspicious on how he expects everyone to not think hes a lurker scum while other people have been called out for it. HOD has been calling out other people but not him while he supports the lynch votes of HOD and that has really been getting the bandwagon rolling.
Chocolate
Gets voted and then goes on a really active streak and then goes back to being a lurker. I don't want to go on a whichhunt alone but tomorrow I think we need to take a longer look at him if we don't get a mafia this time around.
I'm going to be honest if toad isn't scum I don't know what I'm going to do.
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kitaman27
United States9245 Posts
Day 3 Update
Toadesstern
sermokala
IMABUNNEH
Drem903
xsksc
Toadesstern
Skrammen
Toadesstern
xsksc
HarbingerOfDoom
You have a little more than 6 hours remaining. (Daylight savings)
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On November 07 2011 04:39 Skrammen wrote:Show nested quote +On November 07 2011 04:23 HarbingerOfDoom wrote:So I thought I'd have more time now, as the original plan was my gf got back this evening, but instead she'll apparently be back within the next 15 minutes now. As such, I don't think I'll be able to make a big case post now (maybe I'll still get one up before the deadline? :-/), but I thought I'd make some contributions while I can. @Skrammen regarding Drem, possibly a bit outdated, but: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=278558¤tpage=23#444Might have the info you want. Unless something comes up to change my mind, I am willing to vote for the following 4 people today: Skrammen, Chocolate, xsksc, Drem. With a preference in order of xsksc, Chocolate, Skrammen, Drem. Should be back in time to change as somehow I doubt this one will garner enough votes to ensure a lynch, but for now ##vote xsksc How did I miss that... Well, I guess that answers it then, unless you got something else to add, Drem? I've also been thinking about somthing else: + Show Spoiler +His only notable post just recounts information that everyone should know (though some may not have read the thread too carefully and could've forgotten). Although i feel the need to point out, that SKrammen did call out Zanfada for being hasty to vote (even if he could later rescind the vote). If they were both scum, then it wouldn't make sense for them to call suspicion upon one another. Wouldnt it make perfect sense for us to FoS each other if we were both mafia? And wouldnt it make sense for you to put suspicion on Zanfada if you two were mafiabuddies? I know this is nothing solid nor any evidence of anything, I'd just like some input on this, because I'm not able to make up my mind about this. The activity has really dropped here the for the last few hours, and the lynch deadline is coming up fast.
There's not much to really add, to that. I still think the same poeple are town as before, none of them have changed. To me it would only make sense for mafia to throw suspicion on one another if they felt confident neither of them would be lynched. In the first day, i guess it's not a big risk. Still, this could still lead to the problem where if two mafia indicate each other in an attempt to just look like they're contributing, then one of them gets looked at too closely, slips up, and gets lynched. Mafia indicating mafia, to me, should only happen after there's a strong chance for a lynch on a town, just to look like you're genuinely active.
@Toad You're bolded post isn't entirely misinterpreted, but that comment was made prior to me learning that there were only 3 mafia (up until then i genuinely thought there were only 2), so pointing out that someone posted something that should be obvious is only hypocritical in hindsight.
Also, the ability to change votes isn't covered in the rules posted on page 1 (or in any of the guides at a glance), so i can't see what's suspicious about asking a question about something that isn't covered.
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It really is a hard lynch and to be honest the decision whether to lynch skrammen or drems a comlpete gut feeling for me right now as they're both so close for me.
Chocolate might be on the same level of scumminess or slightly below but I think we're able to spot if he's mafia out of a drem or skrammen lynch way better than the other way around. That's why I'm not on choc for today (unless I really have to because we got a bunch of votes on him) and would rather see skrammen or drem lynched. xsksc is still kind of a 0-read for me. He got a a few posts which looked a little townie and I thought there might be a bunch that look a little scummy but those turned out to be mistakes I made. Right now I'd say xsksc is more likely to be town but it's nowhere near a clear read.
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Oh and my reasoning in drem over skrammen is that skrammen looks more scummy imo but drem looks less town.
So far I went for risk and hyshes because they looked awfully scummy and in both cases it turned out to be a nooby-mistake.
That's why I'm willing to change it up a bit and rather go for those who look like they're not town instead of going by people who look to be scum, because that could just be another nooby-mistake.
Don't get this wrong, I don't think that skrammen is looking town at all I'm just way more scared that he might actually be town and my feared scenario 2) from earlier on is the right one. I'm not that scared on drem to be honest.
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I think SK is scummier then Drem but both are on my scum list. I am going to be traveling for the next 4ish hours soon.
There doesn't seem to be support for the SK lynch right now but he is at the top of my scum list. So I am going to vote for drem.
Drem doesn't seem to be trying to get info, most of his posts are fluff and semi emotional reactions to other things. Also during day Toad and Drem had an interaction which was fairly odd. Both of them voted for each other and a little while later just unvoted each other. Very odd behavior. I am not sure if it scum or not, it is just odd behavior.
On November 05 2011 07:26 Zanfada wrote:
People I like are mafia or seem scumish to me
Toad – Every town that has died has problems him, it is hard to believe it is a coincidence. Defending the hyshes bandwagon
Drem – for day 1 stupidness, but looking at his day 2 stuff I am getting more of a town vibe, still on my watch list though, the hysh bandwagon saved his life imo something to look into
Skram – Still on my watch list from day one, he froze up under pressure on day 1 and night 1. He didn’t really start posting again till the hysh bandwagon
##Vote Drem903
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On November 07 2011 07:19 Zanfada wrote:I think SK is scummier then Drem but both are on my scum list. I am going to be traveling for the next 4ish hours soon. There doesn't seem to be support for the SK lynch right now but he is at the top of my scum list. So I am going to vote for drem. Drem doesn't seem to be trying to get info, most of his posts are fluff and semi emotional reactions to other things. Also during day Toad and Drem had an interaction which was fairly odd. Both of them voted for each other and a little while later just unvoted each other. Very odd behavior. I am not sure if it scum or not, it is just odd behavior. Show nested quote +On November 05 2011 07:26 Zanfada wrote:
People I like are mafia or seem scumish to me
Toad – Every town that has died has problems him, it is hard to believe it is a coincidence. Defending the hyshes bandwagon
Drem – for day 1 stupidness, but looking at his day 2 stuff I am getting more of a town vibe, still on my watch list though, the hysh bandwagon saved his life imo something to look into
Skram – Still on my watch list from day one, he froze up under pressure on day 1 and night 1. He didn’t really start posting again till the hysh bandwagon
##Vote Drem903
At that point in time I was very suspicious of drem and he suddenly said something along the lines "well and that makes is 6 townies vs 4 mafias which makes it even harder to get a majority". I figured a mafia would know how many mafias are in this game. However given what I posted today I think he might be tricking us.
That's why I unvoted instantly.
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##Vote toadesstern
sermo's reasoning is very good
he has jumped on every bandwagon and has played a little scummy and weird the entire game
the reason I have not been posting 1) my computer is broken so I have to use my phone and 2) i havent had much to add and 3) I have lost my beginning energy because this game is a little more boring than I thought it was going to be, obviously this is in part due to my inactivity. I might ask for a sub soon.
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3 for Drem, 3 for Toad, and a random vote from Harbinger on xsxksdkds.
How many people haven't voted? And I implore Harbinger to pick either one of them. I think voting Toad gives us far more information than voting Drem, but if we sit around with a no-lynch again we're going to be in trouble. Still waiting for an explanation to the xkskskcxkfd vote as well. At the moment it just looks like you're deliberately blocking a lynch for one reason or another.
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Alright, back again, but probably not for too long unfortunately.
First, to respond to Sermokala:
HarbingerOfDoom
He seems really experienced. or hes putting way too much effort into being a "veteran" townie and has been leading a lot of the lynches I think to this point. With all of them being wrong and poorly supported I don't trust him and I think more people should be questioning him. He has too much confidence I feel for someone trying to find out whos going to kill him and I don't like that. He is the first to post and apologies for starting the wagon that killed hy? hy said that toad was scum and accused hod and was cast away for this.
In regards to the part of leading a lot of lynches and all of them being wrong...we have had one lynch. If you think my case against Hyshes was poor, you're entitled to think that, but I believe it was a pretty strong case, and his subsequent martyrdom didn't help lower the suspicion at all. Yes, I was also one of the first people to pressure Skrammen, but we still can't say for sure whether or not he is scum, although I am now rather 50/50 on him. That case was certainly not the strongest, but at a time when most people had less than 10 posts to their name, and some as few as 2, I don't know how strong of a case you'd expect to have. For apologizing regarding the Hyshes lynch, I apologized because it greatly reduced our chances of winning and I was obviously largely responsible for that, seems reasonable to me...? As for hyshes accusing me of being scum, that is a complete lie. I challenge you to find a post where he does. I'll give you a hint: he never does. He called my argument against him a wall of shit, but he never once FOS'ed me or accused me of being scum. As for the confidence, it takes a majority to get a lynch, no-lynches are bad for town, you try convincing people without presenting your case confidently and let me know how that works for you. Additionally, I would like to remind you that you have addressed 0 of my questions/concerns regarding your case on Toad.
In regards to Bunneh, he voted with me on one lynch, the Hyshes one, he voted toad day one. The only person that didn't vote for Hyshes (besides Hyshes himself, although he tried to) is Ciry, so I think any argument based on that day's voting is an incredibly weak argument. As for me not calling him out at all:
+ Show Spoiler +@Bunneh
I thought you were going to look into my post history and make a statement regarding it? Am I not special enough for that? :-( Bunneh: I'm going to keep pestering you until you do post that analysis of me. Empty promises of analysis won't fly on my watch. Continuing with my usual information requests...
Zanfada and xsksc, I would be interested in hearing your reads on each other, as well as an explanation of the read of course.
Same for Zanfada and Bunneh.
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Well. If we dont get a lynch done it will get us nowhere, but if we lynch a townie it will probably be worse.
##vote Toadsstern
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WEll at this point, a vote for Chocolate or SK won't happen, and those are the people i've been most suspicious of. Going to look at Toad a bit more, but honestly i just don't know if he's scum or not.
The only really scummy thing that stood out to me was encouraging blues to post more frequently on day 1, and then being sure that we had a hero medic on night 2. But the thing is even if he was mafia, how could he know if we actually had a medic or any other blue? He really can't, so that's not really scummy at all.
From there, the only other thing is that his posts have a lot of fluff, and just seem to kind of meh. They do drive discussion, but a good portion of it is discussion against him, (although it has contributed to discussion of other major suspects).
So when it comes down to a vote, i guess we need to vote based on suspicion and what would give us the most information.
so ##vote toadesstern
some people have defended him, others have been a lot more active in accusing him. If he's red, we have a good idea who else is red, if he's green... then i guess i'm dead next since i seem to be the other prime suspect on everybody's list.
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maybe I missed it harb but you still havent explained your vote on me I think?
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EPT
