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Newbie Mini Mafia - Page 27

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Ciryandor
Profile Blog Joined May 2010
United States3735 Posts
November 05 2011 09:39 GMT
#521
Once again sneaking some net use.

Awesome work (read terrible for them) by scum by not doing a hit, or great work by a medic predicting the day's hit. Or we could be seeing a mind-fuck from them, which considering how we haven't been able to get a proper vote going (Skrammen no-lynch and hyshes self-wagon), can only mean a good thing for town. I still can't do my nitpicking on everyone right now; but it will arrive on this Day.
에일리 and 아이유 <3 - O Captain 박재혁 ・゚✧*:・*゚+..。✧・゚:*・..。 ✧・゚ :・゚* ゜・*:・ ✧・゚:・゚:.。 ✧・゚ SPARKULING ・゜・:・゚✧*:・゚✧。*゚+..。 ✧・゚: ✧・゚:*・゜・:・゚✧*::
Toadesstern
Profile Blog Joined October 2008
Germany16350 Posts
November 05 2011 10:26 GMT
#522
Big post from sermokala. I spoilered it to make it more readable.
+ Show Spoiler +
On November 05 2011 13:29 sermokala wrote:
First off It can't be me no mafia would go inactive

Exhibit 1.
Show nested quote +
On October 31 2011 17:31 Toadesstern wrote:
He just turned out to attack me and since I know I'm not mafia that does sound a bit strange to me


reasons a threat to onesself and then references that "he knows hes not mafia". his first moves in this very thread are counter to another instead of just srugging off and trying to elaborate on someone else. Smart scum moves proving his guilt.
Exhibit 2
Show nested quote +
On November 01 2011 01:54 hacklebeast wrote:
## vote toadesstern

I think his moves have been shady since the beginning. First tries to get the important figures to revel themselves (not explicitly, but if a lurker suddenly started posting significantly after it would give mafia a good clue), then follows it up with a lot of talk about the necessity to kill lurkers. To top it off he fingers chocolate only to rescind his vote after no one else follows suit.

Switches up his game then (this is page 13) going from randomly choseing someone rescinds this and then trys to get a lynch to happen without justifying it. simple slight of hand to remove any question to himself about anything while achieving his end goal as a scum.
Exhibit 4

Show nested quote +
On November 03 2011 20:21 Toadesstern wrote:
wtf is this hyshes. I am almost certain harb's green. I'm not going to stop voteing for you because of those 3 posts and to tell the truth all 3 aren't exactly looking town.

I've got my vote on hyshes as well
## Vote Hyshes

Also how do you know we got a dt? We don't have to have one. Yeah couple of people look blue but they could be medics as well or one medic one dt or whatever. And btw that could be a reason why mafia did not go for obvious lynches as well. Maybe they feared there actually is a medic who would get a hero safe on someone like ciry on day1.

A townie is just not going to say "yeah go ahead and lynch me" just because of one vote, no matter how strong the case. He would try to defend and tell the guy where his mistake is to make sure he's not getting lynched because after all, a 100% townie lynch is worse than a 90% townie lynch. After all you know for certain if you are town or not.
I did the same although I phrased it a little bit different. I told you to lynch either skrammen or me as I thought it's the only majoritys we're going to get today and since I know I'm not mafia I went for skrammen because I thought he's something about 50% town which is still better than a lynch on me.

Accepts bait

But guess what happened to one of the guys who voted for him? Risk is dead and he was a townie. easy clean mafia tactics by toad here.

Exhibit 5.

Show nested quote +
On November 03 2011 20:25 Toadesstern wrote:
Also if you REALLY know 3 scums + dt (however that's possible) there would be no problem to tell us. Yeah our dt would die but who cares if we got a 100% proof list of those 3 scums (which is never going to happen). So that last post just makes no sense. Maybe you got a decent idea, I think I got a decent idea of who might be blue and who might be mafia too but I'm not going to be as bold to say I'm 100% sure.
Additionally a DT really hasn't that much extra information. I'd say (that is if we got one!) he either checked skrammen or me on night1. So he either knows if I'm red/green or if skrammen is red/green but that's still 9 people left (11 - 1 he checked - himself) he's completly unaware of.


this is the most oozing post for me. If someone came out and said that they know who the scums and dt is they would be imediatly cast into doubt with little evidence and the real scums would pounce on that. then he goes on about his "idea" of whos scum and only gets away withoutsaying anything about it by saying that hes not "bold".

/vote Toadesstern

and thats all I'm going to do for my first couple posts. made a bunch of mistakes but I'm sure I'll get into this just fine.


Ok I'm back and lol we got a hero medic :p
To answer those things above:

1) Yes it was day1 and I just did not think there was something that could get problematic at that point in time. I do realize that I should not have played it that easy the very first hours and should have explained everything better in the beginning.
Also this is half an answer to your second one. Yeah I figured those guys really think my phrase (that one where I told people to talk no matter if blue, green or red) was odd so I had to react to it and from that point in time I changed it up and explained EVERYTHING I wrote. So yeah I changed it up because I thought my play on day1 had flaws in it. Not those 'weird' phrases you guys showed but those 2 answeres. One of them you just quoted and the other one being that paranoid answer.

2) I still think lynching a maybe-mafia is better than a no-lynch + what I said at 1).

3) not found :p

4) Bait accepted? I did NOT vote for him before he started pulling that emo. Once he did it I had to vote for him. And someone else mentioned I was late on voting for hyshes (I think bunneh or I misread something). I was the 2nd (!) to vote for hyshes.

5) Look it up, I posted that list just some posts earlier because I was asked to make a list by harb so I figured I don't have to quote myself just to state that I actually made that list. And yeah what you said is what I did. HE SAID he got a list and is pretty sure he knows who our dt and those 3 mafias is, although we don't even know if we got a dt. That's just weird and you just explained yourself why my reasoning was fine according to you, you just ended up saying it's not. Either because you're under stress right now and have to compensate for hacks poor play and had to get something done quick or because you want people to lynch me and can't find a real thing.
<Elem> >toad in charge of judging lewdness <Elem> how bad can it be <Elem> also wew, that is actually p lewd.
Skrammen
Profile Joined October 2010
Norway195 Posts
November 05 2011 14:21 GMT
#523
So, I'm just going to share some of my thoughts and consider some scenarios here. First of all, welcome hacklebeast 2.0 Sermokala. You've probably been following this thread and already have some thoughts to share with us. With you being new its pretty difficult for us to get a read on you. I would love if you could post some more of your thoughts regarding who is scum and who is town.

Regarding the Me vs. Toadsstern thing, at this point two options seem to be possible:

1. One of us is scum. This seems to be the general consensus, and we've been in each others throat for most of this game.
But if toad was green then the mafia should have used this, because if Toad gets killed by mafia, I would have been lynched already. But if we consider Toad to be a mafia, the scum will not touch me, because if I die it gives you pretty good information on him.

2. Neither of us are scum. I'm not quite sure about this, but I've mentioned this previously. I think this is the least likely of the two.

Also, I noticed somthing Toad said:
+ Show Spoiler +
Ok I'm back and lol we got a hero medic


We cant be sure there is a medic, yet he automatically says there is one. A scumslip?

Although, to be fair, I do not think the mafia would abstain from trying to kill someone, so we might have one. I cant be for sure if this is a scumslip or just a lack of clarification, but it does seem a bit suspicious to me.

The muffin mare is seated at the labratory of the utility muffin research kitchen.
Toadesstern
Profile Blog Joined October 2008
Germany16350 Posts
November 05 2011 14:39 GMT
#524
On November 05 2011 23:21 Skrammen wrote:
So, I'm just going to share some of my thoughts and consider some scenarios here. First of all, welcome hacklebeast 2.0 Sermokala. You've probably been following this thread and already have some thoughts to share with us. With you being new its pretty difficult for us to get a read on you. I would love if you could post some more of your thoughts regarding who is scum and who is town.

Regarding the Me vs. Toadsstern thing, at this point two options seem to be possible:

1. One of us is scum. This seems to be the general consensus, and we've been in each others throat for most of this game.
But if toad was green then the mafia should have used this, because if Toad gets killed by mafia, I would have been lynched already. But if we consider Toad to be a mafia, the scum will not touch me, because if I die it gives you pretty good information on him.

2. Neither of us are scum. I'm not quite sure about this, but I've mentioned this previously. I think this is the least likely of the two.

Also, I noticed somthing Toad said:
+ Show Spoiler +
Ok I'm back and lol we got a hero medic


We cant be sure there is a medic, yet he automatically says there is one. A scumslip?

Although, to be fair, I do not think the mafia would abstain from trying to kill someone, so we might have one. I cant be for sure if this is a scumslip or just a lack of clarification, but it does seem a bit suspicious to me.



a scumslip? What other possibilities are there? :D
And no, Mafia deciding to /dance (deciding not to kill someone) is not an explanation I'm going with. So yeah I guess the only thing left is us havin a medic.
<Elem> >toad in charge of judging lewdness <Elem> how bad can it be <Elem> also wew, that is actually p lewd.
Toadesstern
Profile Blog Joined October 2008
Germany16350 Posts
November 05 2011 14:48 GMT
#525
but it's awesome. The very moment I post something that's so clear and I don't need to explain it someone shows up and yells at me that I'm scum because you can interprete it in a way nobody does until he's forced to do so by some magical power.
I don't know if that's a townie being overeager to find something where nothing's to be found or a mafia trying to get people on me again. I'm still kinda shocked since hyshes flipped green.
If I have to stop lynching people like hyshes I'm just not sure by what standars I'm supposed to go. A mafia yelling he's mafia? Yeah that happened last game and he got banned for that. But given those two things (mafia yelling he's mafia and what hyshes did) I'm just having problems imagining something you're able to do that makes you more mafia than hyshes actions and at the same time less than a mafia yelling he's mafia because that's a banreason.
<Elem> >toad in charge of judging lewdness <Elem> how bad can it be <Elem> also wew, that is actually p lewd.
Skrammen
Profile Joined October 2010
Norway195 Posts
November 05 2011 14:54 GMT
#526
On November 05 2011 23:48 Toadesstern wrote:
but it's awesome. The very moment I post something that's so clear and I don't need to explain it someone shows up and yells at me that I'm scum because you can interprete it in a way nobody does until he's forced to do so by some magical power.
I don't know if that's a townie being overeager to find something where nothing's to be found or a mafia trying to get people on me again. I'm still kinda shocked since hyshes flipped green.
If I have to stop lynching people like hyshes I'm just not sure by what standars I'm supposed to go. A mafia yelling he's mafia? Yeah that happened last game and he got banned for that. But given those two things (mafia yelling he's mafia and what hyshes did) I'm just having problems imagining something you're able to do that makes you more mafia than hyshes actions and at the same time less than a mafia yelling he's mafia because that's a banreason.


Everything you say will be analyzed and scrutinized, and thats how its supposed to be.
The muffin mare is seated at the labratory of the utility muffin research kitchen.
Toadesstern
Profile Blog Joined October 2008
Germany16350 Posts
November 05 2011 15:18 GMT
#527
Ok let's look back at what we know out of the voting from day1. I changed it a little bit do add who's dead and deleted those unvotes to make it more readable. The only people who changes votes were me ( I was on choc changing to skrammen) and zanfa who was on hack and changed to skrammen as well. So here we go:
On November 01 2011 10:02 kitaman27 wrote:
Day One Update

Hacklebeast

Chocolate
Skrammen

Zanfada
hyshes dead
Drem903

Skrammen
Chocolate
Ciryandor
Toadesstern
xsksc
Zanfada
HarbingerOfDoom

Toadesstern
hacklebeast
IMABUNNEH
risk.nuke dead


That was the most recent update on day1 and nothing changed afterwards, so it got to be right.
I'm not going to make it to complex here and will just talk about the skrammen-issue and what skrammen being red or green means.
So obviously we got 2 possibilties: He's either red or green (while being blue would be a subset of being green).
What does either one mean for us?
If he turns out to be read I'm 99% certain there's no mafia voting for him. I don't think they would risk that given we already got 6 votes for him and 7 would be enough to lynch him. As you can see we only got 4 people who are not voting for skrammen who are still alive. That would mean if skrammen's red probably 2 out of those 3 left are mafia (those 3 are former hacklebeast, bunneh and drem). So that would be awesome.
However if he flips green we probably got a bunch of mafias voting for skrammen as well. I'd say about 2 and one spreading his vote. If that's what's true we might have to reconsider who actually is town and who's not.
2 Days ago I went ahead and said I'm pretty sury ciry, zanfa and xsksc are town. Takeing into consideration what harb did the last days he's without a doubtt on my town list as well. What's left is choc and myself.
Frankly I'm considering myself to be townie :p Also I think a lot of people are still considering me to be a 50/50 because of what happened on day1 because from my point of view I made clear I'm a townie on night1 and day2 but yeah those 2 lynches which turned out to be green didn't exactly help my reputation since both wanted to get me lynched.
So for me that makes choc an easy target (that is ONCE and IF skrammen flips green) and I have to reconsider what I think of xsksc (haven't checkes his history but I got the feeling he isn't posting that much lately), ciry (same as xsksc although he got an excuse) and zanfa (same again).

Right know I'm leaning towards skrammen because of that. If we lynch a townie again it's 6v3 and if mafias succeeds in killing a townie it's going to be 5v3 which is almost lylo (it is unless our medic pulls another hero) and we have to lynch 3 mafias in a row to get this done.
<Elem> >toad in charge of judging lewdness <Elem> how bad can it be <Elem> also wew, that is actually p lewd.
Toadesstern
Profile Blog Joined October 2008
Germany16350 Posts
November 05 2011 15:22 GMT
#528
I really should proofread after changing phrases because if I don't a post like the one above comes out
I hope it's still understandable. Some spelling issues (do = to, read = red, that very first sentence just got no grammar or whatsoever :p)
<Elem> >toad in charge of judging lewdness <Elem> how bad can it be <Elem> also wew, that is actually p lewd.
xsksc
Profile Blog Joined February 2011
United Kingdom1044 Posts
November 05 2011 15:33 GMT
#529
sorry you feel I'm not posting enough toad, I just made a pretty big post updating all my thoughts/reads about people on the last page.
Toadesstern
Profile Blog Joined October 2008
Germany16350 Posts
November 05 2011 15:35 GMT
#530
oh yeah seems like I missed that because I was still asleep at that point in time. My bad :p
<Elem> >toad in charge of judging lewdness <Elem> how bad can it be <Elem> also wew, that is actually p lewd.
xsksc
Profile Blog Joined February 2011
United Kingdom1044 Posts
November 05 2011 15:36 GMT
#531
well it is saturday so I guess I'll let you off
Toadesstern
Profile Blog Joined October 2008
Germany16350 Posts
November 05 2011 15:39 GMT
#532
also just to add this: I am aware of that post ciry made earlier and it looks to be town no question it's just that other than those big analyses he's completly skipping the talk. I know he said he's buisy but I just wanted to mention it.
<Elem> >toad in charge of judging lewdness <Elem> how bad can it be <Elem> also wew, that is actually p lewd.
Ciryandor
Profile Blog Joined May 2010
United States3735 Posts
November 05 2011 16:38 GMT
#533
On November 06 2011 00:39 Toadesstern wrote:
also just to add this: I am aware of that post ciry made earlier and it looks to be town no question it's just that other than those big analyses he's completly skipping the talk. I know he said he's buisy but I just wanted to mention it.

Just got home, I'm fucking burnt out, and I'm ready to get back in this game with a PBP worth a damn when I wake up. I'll let you guys judge for yourselves what you think once it's done; it's probably going to be half a page worth of per-person talk.

I just wanted to make clear from you Toad, what are you expecting from me regarding this? Do you want me to weigh in on you looking like scum to most people? Or are you asking me why Skrammen ought to be the one lynched instead?
에일리 and 아이유 <3 - O Captain 박재혁 ・゚✧*:・*゚+..。✧・゚:*・..。 ✧・゚ :・゚* ゜・*:・ ✧・゚:・゚:.。 ✧・゚ SPARKULING ・゜・:・゚✧*:・゚✧。*゚+..。 ✧・゚: ✧・゚:*・゜・:・゚✧*::
Ciryandor
Profile Blog Joined May 2010
United States3735 Posts
November 05 2011 16:44 GMT
#534
As for looking like skipping the talk, the point is, right now, we're nearly back to where we were before we got railroaded by hyshes, with some obvious targets for town, and what I'm going to do (the PBP), will provide town with a lot of talking points while I also provide my own input, which is where I don't skip talking. Giving grounds for discussion is just as important as actually discussing the issues, as it allows people to defend or attack talking points more vigorously and convince them of one point or another.
에일리 and 아이유 <3 - O Captain 박재혁 ・゚✧*:・*゚+..。✧・゚:*・..。 ✧・゚ :・゚* ゜・*:・ ✧・゚:・゚:.。 ✧・゚ SPARKULING ・゜・:・゚✧*:・゚✧。*゚+..。 ✧・゚: ✧・゚:*・゜・:・゚✧*::
IMABUNNEH
Profile Joined March 2011
United Kingdom1062 Posts
November 05 2011 16:51 GMT
#535
On the SKrammen - Toad thing, I can't help but think we've spent the time since the failed lynch day 1 pussyfooting around the issue because we can't say for certain. If one falls down, then we have a massive amount of information that we've been clamouring for since Day 1, yet done nothing about. The subtext of most posts seem to be "X Y and Z are suspicious, and obviously one of Toad or SKrammen are scum".

If one of them are scum, we should do something about it, not dick around. If one flips green, we know with absolute certainty who we want to lynch the following day.

If we were to vote based on percentage liklihood (something subjective), then the only choices I'm seeing right now is a 50/50 on SKrammen/Toad, and a 50-70 chance on Drem. However that 50/50 immediately becomes "the other guy is 100% the other thing) if we get a lynch there.

For this reason, I'm making my vote the one that gets the most information for us. It's not a choice anyone necessarily WANTS to make, since we have a 50% chance of getting it wrong, but at this point I feel it's now or never to get that 100% chance next time.

##vote Toadesstern
"I think...now? No rival. Me world champion. Yeah. None rival." - oGsMC
HarbingerOfDoom
Profile Joined December 2010
United States508 Posts
November 05 2011 17:15 GMT
#536
Continuing with my usual information requests...
Zanfada and xsksc, I would be interested in hearing your reads on each other, as well as an explanation of the read of course.
Same for Zanfada and Bunneh.
Toadesstern
Profile Blog Joined October 2008
Germany16350 Posts
November 05 2011 17:59 GMT
#537
Well in that case I'm obviously on Skrammen.
Given what I said earlier I think the outcome is always better if we lynch skrammen. If he's mafia than fine, we just lynched a mafia (same if you lynch me and I flip red). However since we got hyshes and risk the green case is really fucked up. If I flip green you can't tell a bit about other people because risk and hyshes, who both targeted me were green. So a logic like "let's just lynch everyone who pushed for toad" would be flawed.
Plus I got to add that I still think the only reason you guys still think I'm 50% mafia is because of those weird lynches/kills by mafia. Yes both attacked me bot come on, noone could have THAT seen comming
<Elem> >toad in charge of judging lewdness <Elem> how bad can it be <Elem> also wew, that is actually p lewd.
Toadesstern
Profile Blog Joined October 2008
Germany16350 Posts
November 05 2011 18:51 GMT
#538
oh just to add it:

##vote Skrammen
<Elem> >toad in charge of judging lewdness <Elem> how bad can it be <Elem> also wew, that is actually p lewd.
IMABUNNEH
Profile Joined March 2011
United Kingdom1062 Posts
November 05 2011 18:55 GMT
#539
On November 06 2011 02:59 Toadesstern wrote:
Well in that case I'm obviously on Skrammen.
Given what I said earlier I think the outcome is always better if we lynch skrammen. If he's mafia than fine, we just lynched a mafia (same if you lynch me and I flip red). However since we got hyshes and risk the green case is really fucked up. If I flip green you can't tell a bit about other people because risk and hyshes, who both targeted me were green. So a logic like "let's just lynch everyone who pushed for toad" would be flawed.
Plus I got to add that I still think the only reason you guys still think I'm 50% mafia is because of those weird lynches/kills by mafia. Yes both attacked me bot come on, noone could have THAT seen comming


I'm still conflicted on that. It's not JUST the suspicion of who else have died/lynched, there are parts of your behaviour that still strike me as scummy. But then there is also behaviour that strikes me as townie. I get the feeling that mafia would be more active than SKrammen is being though, however I could be ENTIRELY wrong on that.

My initial vote remains on Toads, however I feel Toads or SKrammen have to go today. If there are more people jumping on SKrammen near the deadline, I'll swap my vote to ensure we get the lynch we need. My vote for Toads first is my feeling that Toads is more likely scum than SKrammen. I might also see something between now and then that changes my mind anyway, so who knows.


@Harbinger: Tomorrow (RL time) will have to be for a true look back through his posts, since I have friends shortly arriving for a party at mine. My initial answer to that post is earlier I thought he was suspicious, but it may have been the feeling of "everyone is suspicious to me wtf do I do?!". I don't think he's posted that much in the last day or 2 (real life days, not ingame days) so I'd like to see a bit more from him, and potentially what he thinks of me, by the time I reply tomorrow. If that doesn't come through I'll go ahead and PBP (assuming this is play by play?) what I think of him anyway.
"I think...now? No rival. Me world champion. Yeah. None rival." - oGsMC
Toadesstern
Profile Blog Joined October 2008
Germany16350 Posts
November 05 2011 19:01 GMT
#540
Just got a call. I'm going to be out playing poker today in an hour. So if you got questions for me, now would be the time. I'm going to be back at 02:00 am my time I guess (that's in 6 hours) and since it's saturday np to stay up for the deadline.
So if you can't wait 6 hours for my response go ahead and ask NOW or wait 6 hous.
<Elem> >toad in charge of judging lewdness <Elem> how bad can it be <Elem> also wew, that is actually p lewd.
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