Pick Your Power Interesting!

The game has started. Anyone who is waiting till 'Day 1' to start posting is playing the wrong game. We all know our alignments, therefore the game has begun.

Today we have one very specific goal: Try to organize an effective picking strategy for town. This is my fourth PYP game, but that doesn't necessarily mean much, as this is a wildly different set-up. 15 Town vs 12 Mafia means that plans which were excellent for past games, no longer necessarily apply. Also, several roles which were extremely powerful in mafia hands, are now a much lesser threat to town(as mafia have a good chance of targeting each other).

My strength as a player is not necessarily coming up with iron-clad plans, and I don't expect this to be iron-clad. I need input, and I almost always need help with the details. Please don't nit-pick details at this stage, and if you see a problem then look for a solution.

First off, lets talk about previous plans and if they will work in this set-up:

A 'No Pick' List: The idea behind a no-pick list is we come up with a list of roles(mafia favoured roles) and put them on this list. Any player found with one of these roles(via use of power or role-check) is more or less treated as red. Originally this was combined with Bullet-Bill to give him maximum effectiveness. However, this type of plan was always somewhat flawed, and doesn't allow town players to take roles in an effort to deny mafia.

Role Denial: Having Town players take heavily pro-mafia favoured roles in an effort to keep them out of mafia hands(recruiting GF/CPR doc etc.). Typically this is achieved by assigning certain slots(top or mid-top) to prioritize and take these roles. By knowing which pick has taken a certain role, this allows us to keep tabs on OP roles like Inventor or in past games, CompVig. This is one of the most important things town can do in my opinion. Even if we organize in no other way, WE HAVE to have several top picks take certain roles as denial. However, the key is figuring out which roles are actually so dangerous as to worry about.

Ver's PYP Plan:

This is a good plan, but notice the bolded section. Given that there is a 15 vs 12 ratio in this game, we cannot guarantee by any means that more than a few of the top 6/7 roles will be town aligned. Also, Ver has picks 8-11 taking the 'accountable' roles(role denial) but that works less well in this set-up. If player 8 tries to take a role, only to wind up vanilla, he CANNOT blow the whistle without roleclaiming vanilla, opening him up to both the assassin, and Bloodycobbler roles.

Assigning Picks: In PYP2 I tried to organize a system which would land us as many investigative roles as possible by giving everyone a % chance to take a certain investigative/defensive or miscellaneous role. I'm not going to go into detail here, as with only 15/27 players town aligned, this makes a mediocre plan very bad.

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What are our picking strategy goals? How do they differ from past PYP games?

Goals:
* Accumulate as many investigative roles as possible into town hands.
* Use the top picks to take roles that need to be held accountable(first) and roles that are extremely powerful(second)
* Make a priority list of town roles

That's it. No complicated schemes, no major pick assignments or no-pick lists. Mainly townies will be choosing for themselves which role is best.

The main way in which this game differs from previous PYP incarnations is that most of the roles are far, far less scary for town. CPR Doc or Comp Vig(or any role which gives 2 or more KP) are normally heinously frightening roles for town to deal with, as they straight up double mafia KP. However, KP roles(in mafia hands) in this set-up have a decent chance of killing off other mafia players(1 in 3 chance of hitting mafia at beginning of game). While these multiple KP roles are still something to worry about, they are no longer game breaking.

Second, we no longer need to fear the killer combos that mafia can summon up. Assassin+Role Cop or Capitalist!? Politician + Kingmaker or America!? No longer all that frightening, because mafia have an excellent chance of overlapping their picks. Three teams are all vying for the same power roles and the same combos, which means the chance of Team A getting politician and Team B getting kingmaker fairly decent. At any rate they cannot guarantee them even if we ignore the combos.

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Accumulate as many investigative powers into town hands.

Blues don't win mafia games... analysis does. Don't rely on DT's to do the work. Right...RIGHT? Unfortunately... kinda wrong. In this game we have an inordinate amount of scum to catch. Every townie in this game is looking at 14 town players and 12 mafia..... it's brutal and it's precisely why we need investigative roles. Defensive roles are also important given that we will have at least 3 KP(probably more like 5) per night, for most of the game, but I expect players to mix these in on their own initiative.

There are two main reasons we need to prioritize dt type roles this game:

First and easiest: Mafia don't want them. Most of the investigative roles in this game are far, far more powerful for town than for mafia. Chances of mafia prioritizing them are low, which means town should have their pick of the litter. If a mafia team uses one of their picks to deny an investigative role to town, this puts them at an immediate disadvantage compared to the other two mafia teams which took all pro-mafia roles. Investigative roles, unlike Defensive or Offensive roles, are much less likely to be taken, and hence give us a greater chance to actually get blue roles. In no way am I suggesting we only try to take Investigative roles and ignore the others, that would be foolish. Instead I'm simply suggesting that we need to make DT-Roles a higher priority than Def or Off roles.

Second: Behavior analysis is going to be extremely tough this game. Typically when a player leads lynches against multiple mafia, or shoots a mafia in the face, we can (at least temporarily) cross them off the list of potential mafia. Not so this game. Voting lists, night actions and good reads will not prove a townie. Every mafia player has 8 other players to try to find and kill to buy town-cred. This is great for us as town in a way, but unfortunately makes it extremely difficult to find mafia. This is precisely why any role which can correctly identify mafia is extremely important to us as town. In this game, investigative roles are in many situations going to trump behavior analysis.


Use the top picks to take roles that need to be held accountable(first) and roles that are extremely powerful(second)

This is where we need a lot of discussion, and where I am most hazy about the optimum strat.

Roles that need to be held accountable: Inventor, Assassin, Thief, RoleSwapper. CPR Doc and Vote Rigger are on the outskirts. JOAT is so good it doesn't necessarily need to be held accountable, but needs to be talked about.

Inventor: Absurdly powerful. Basically won the game for town in PYPInsane by giving town a listcheck, and a Police Radio. I have no doubt that this role in mafia hands would be just as deadly. There is absolutely no way to ensure that this role ends up in town hands. None. Therefore, it is essential that we know who has it. All inventions are announced publicly, which means that if that player misuses the role, we can lynch/vig him. Unfortunately this leaves the Inventor wide open to be sniped immediately(1 minute into day 1) by the Assassin. Therefore it is important we know who the assassin is. PICK #1+ Show Spoiler +


Assassin: We need to know who has this role. First off so they can't kill the inventor. More importantly though is that the ability to roleclaim in a PYP set-up is very very important for town. Think of how many town players in PYPInsane roleclaimed: The listcheckDT, bulletproof, modern detective, tracker, role cop, both inventors, multiple vanillas, etc etc. This role directly hampers towns ability to organize and gather information, not to mention that if combined with Capitalist, Role Cop, NKVD or Extractor it becomes extremely powerful for mafia. PICK #2

Thief and Role Swapper : These roles need to be accounted for only because of the fact they can swipe the Inventor or Assassin. If we are committing to keeping tabs on those two roles, then by default we also need to assign the Thief and Role Swapper. PICKS #3 and 4

CPR Doctor: In a normal PYP set-up, this is an essential role to block, as it adds immensely to mafia kill power. However, in this set-up it is much less scary to town. First, there is a chance that any shot will kill mafia instead of town(~33%). Second, there is a chance that the CPR doc will actually SAVE someone. With likely 4 or 5 KP per night the CPR doc will get progressively more likely to start making saves. Combine that with the fact that separate mafia factions will be trying to kill the same strong townies, and the chance for a save climbs even higher. NOT WORTHY OF A PICK

Vote Rigger: In most set-ups a vote rigger is extremely powerful in mafia hands. Not this game though. Why not? We have a Pardoner in the set-up. Not only that, but Protactinum has stated the Pardoner has ability to set conditions on his Pardon in the event he is not around. This means the Pardoner can state he will always use his Pardon if a vote rigger's powers are activated. Poof, vote rigger is hard countered before the game has even begun. NOT WORTHY OF A PICK

JOAT Very Very strong. Excellent for either mafia or town and as such needs to be a top pick in the hopes it finds a home in town hands. PICK #5


+ Show Spoiler +

This plan means that we are allocating the first 5 slots particular roles:

1. Inventor
2. Assassin
3. Thief
4. Role Swapper
5. JOAT

Keep in mind however, that the top picks are very likely going to be mafia players. Each mafia team can co-ordiante their picks, therefore they are far more likely to wind up with with a unique number, and hence more likely to be near the top of the list(Which is why JOAT is down at #5). This is both a benifit to us and a detriment.

It's good for town because it forces mafia to take the picks we allocate to them or expose themselves if they do not. It's bad for us in that a mafia player can let a role 'slip' down the list for a buddy, and we'll never see it again. However I don't think this is a huge downside, since we get to kill the mafia player who lets it slip. Meaning the mafia have to abandon a player simply to get a strong role(putting them at a disadvantage to the other mafia teams). It's not ideal for town, but it's better than the alternative.+ Show Spoiler +



Make a priority list of town roles

As I see it, these are the strongest roles for town, in relative order, and by category:

Investigative:
5Jack
5Inventor
5Detective
5NKVD
4Parity Cop
4Capitalist
4Bullet Bill
3Role Cop
Watcher- NO
Tracker - NO

Defensive
4Medic
4Rock Star
4Witch
3Jailkeeper
3Bulletproof
3Doctor
3Meth Man
3Veteran
Martyr - NO
Hider- NO
Hero - NO
NRA Member - NO(unless you want to claim it night 1)

KP
4Vigilante
4Dreamflower
3.5Day Vig
3.5America
3.5King Maker
3Mad Hatter
3Bad Santa
3BC
3Ace

Other
Qatol
Copy Cat

The rest is basically non-optimal roles. This gives us a townie pick list that contains these roles. If you want to pick something else, that's fine, but I see these roles as the best roles for town(In very rough order):

Jack
Inventor
Detective
NKVD
Parity Cop
Doctor
Rock Star
Vigilante
Dreamflower
Capitalist
Medic
Witch
Day Vig
Bullet Bill
America
King Maker
Jailkeeper
Bulletproof
Bad Santa
BC
Ace
Qatol
Role Cop
Meth Man
Veteran
Mad Hatter
Copy Cat

This gives approximately 25 roles for the 15 town-aligned players. The rest of the roles are not really worth taking for townies. The further down on the pick-list you are, the further down this role list you would pick, always keeping an eye towards the investigative roles though(which are a bit too clumped towards the top for this strat). This presumably gives us a fairly decent chance of getting as many quality blues as possible.

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What does this plan do, and what does it not do?

*Assigns the top 5 players roles which are dangerous, and are essential for town to know their whereabouts.

*Gives town a general priority list for making picks, hopefully minimizing overlap and maximizing investigative roles.

* Does not attempt to block all strong mafia picks, instead allowing mafia to cockblock themselves and get more vanilla players, putting them at a disadvantage to town


Have a problem with the plan? Great! Lets talk about it. Don't pop in and snipe 1 little problem though. This is something that needs to be sorted out, and needs to be sorted out before the pick list is revealed. Input is needed.
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Some notes on various roles:

Janitor: Not in the least bit frightening. We already learn way less from a flip since mafia will be attacking mafia all over the place. Losing 1 flip is nothing to be afraid of. With an investigative role heavy line-up, town is strongest at night anyways.

Showtime! and Vote Rigger:Completely nullified by any competent pardoner. Neither of their abilities should ever go unpardoned.

Doctor: Excellent in this set-up as you are either normal, jailkeeper, or weak... And you are told if you are weak! A weak doctor can act as another investigative role. This doesn't work if you don't know your sanity, but in this case you do. Step 1, telegraph your protections "I think blank should be protected tonight", Step 2, you either die and get flipped as a weak doctor(implicating your breadcrumb), or you live and have a confirmed townie. Simply a fantastic role.

NRA Member If you take this role as a townie, you absolutely have to claim it day/night 1. The chances of tearing our blues apart are way too high. By claiming you do not even open yourself up to hits, as you cannot be roleblocked. This role should be treated as a buffed up BP Vest.

Politician Kinda scary, as there is a decent chance the mafia can team up a kingmaker/america with the politician. However, this means they are using two of their powers for 1 extra KP. I'm not sure how scary that really is considering the other potential powers. Not to mention they run the risk of overlapping with other mafia teams, and making themselves vulnerable to role checks once they activate their powers for evil.

Bomber Man Somewhat scary, but fairly likely to hit other mafia members, and fairly likely to explode prematurely and not do maximum damage. Not all that potent in this set-up.

Cupid Useful for mafia only to kill a strong defensive role. Other than that it only adds a single KP.

Vigilante With two shots, this is probably one of town's best offensive weapons.

Dreamflower Pointless for mafia to take, so players at the bottom of the list should think of taking this role(no need to take it high). Again, telegraphing here is important(but be subtle) as your death can confirm an innocent. Roleclaiming and asking for medic protection is possibly worthwhile in this situation.

Ace - Lie is the big word here
America - Spotlight role, causes confusion most of the time but puts a focus on America from all factions.
Assassin - Because you can't name GREEN, I think it's much better for town, as it has a safeguard if they repeatedly name RED. A less restricted CV role is better for scum.
Bad Santa - With more inherent KP, I think this is pretty good information grab for town that doesn't necessarily need to be used, while for mafia, it's maybe 1 kill or just some info that's more easily attainable with other roles.
Bullet Bill - Great town role, and I don't see mafia's use for this.
Day Vigilante - similar to america, spotlight and such.
Detective - alignment is useless to mafia, while this will be more sought after then other role finders
Dreamflower - Town will risk killing themselves instead of another townie, mafia will not :D
NKVD Agent - alignment no role
Parity Cop - alignment no role
Puppeteer - A strong scumhunter at the bottom of the list could make good use of this, and I believe you can PM the smurf?
Tracker - Information
Watcher - Information