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TL Mafia XLIV - Page 95

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xtfftc
Profile Blog Joined April 2010
United Kingdom2343 Posts
August 28 2011 10:54 GMT
#1881
On August 28 2011 12:52 chaoser wrote:
Show nested quote +
If nard visited a person who died, he's almost certainly mafia. This is, of course, has to be what Foolish was saying, because he was a watcher and he was 100% sure nard is mafia.


There is also a possibility that nard isn't mafia and is just nosy neighbor or possibly blue.

If the person foolishness was looking at was killed by the godfather and nard also visited then foolishness would only see nard.

This is why I said I trust foolishness' call as much as I trust my own.

Yeah, that's what I was wondering about.

So, basically we have two very suspicious players (Nard and Vain) almost confirmed by two blues (I see no reason to doubt Chaoser's claim) and there is a relatively small possibility that either of the two suspects might be a miller. Which means that we have to decide between the two not because of the information the blues got on them but by everything else they have done.
wherebugsgo
Profile Blog Joined February 2010
Japan10647 Posts
August 28 2011 11:09 GMT
#1882
Just wait for the claims. Nothing needs to be said until the claims come.

nard
Profile Joined July 2009
Germany124 Posts
August 28 2011 11:56 GMT
#1883
Liquidite- Welcome to TL Mafia XLIV you are Lysander, the retired paladin, you used to be one of the toughest people around, exterminating cults, killing deamons, and generally fighting evil. That was a long time ago though, by now the arthritis has set in and your old wounds ache, not to mention the fact you are constrained to a wheelchair. Still, the true power of a paladin is in his iron will, and you still have that. Your unflinching resolve and your vote shall be your weapons against the cult.

so i guess i'm a nosy neighbor? of course anything i say now is kinda suspicious.please think it through though - a third townie lynch will hurt us so bad i don't think we can recover from it. do we have some other way of confirming me? maybe chaoser or better, somebody unclaimed as chaoser won't survive for long i guess.
anyway like i wrote yesterday, i will be actively monitoring the thread in the following hours and am ready to respond to your stuff.
chaos13
Profile Joined April 2011
Canada885 Posts
August 28 2011 12:55 GMT
#1884
On August 28 2011 12:48 wherebugsgo wrote:
Show nested quote +
On August 28 2011 12:27 xtfftc wrote:
Oh, and:

nard is 100% mafia. If I die it will be instantly clear how I know this information.


Can someone explain it for stupid me what was Foolishness' proof? As a watcher, he saw Nard visit someone or someone visit Nard or?


He probably watched someone who died on the previous night. He gets a report of everyone who visited that person.

If nard visited a person who died, he's almost certainly mafia. This is, of course, has to be what Foolish was saying, because he was a watcher and he was 100% sure nard is mafia.

Now, the thing about vain is that there is a TINY possibility he's not mafia. But we'll wait for his claim before anything is said.


nard is 100% mafia. Foolish would not have missed considering all the possibilities. He had to have watched someone who died, and nard was the ONLY person visiting them. There can be no mistake here. A 100% confirmed watcher has given us a 100% confirmed mafia


On August 28 2011 14:59 Varpulis wrote:
Guys, he's a claimed dt who's sure of his sanity. He's claimed his targets, how he knows his sanity, everything. Chaoser's fucked if he's mafia fake claiming, and I can't imagine why mafia would claim dt with no pressure on them.

##vote Vain

Also, Bumatlarge is scum. Without a shadow if a doubt, he's scum. Because we already have 2 good targets today, both very likely mafia (one called scum by a dead watcher, one called scum by a living dt) I'm not going to push for his lynch today, but I want to say it before I forget. I'll expand on these after I wake up, it's 2am where I am right now.


I'll go with a confirmed blue before a likely blue. We can take out Vain tomorrow, or tonight if we still have a vigilante. nard is a priority because someone we know has a power role that can prove people as mafia has stated that nard is mafia.
Curu
Profile Joined March 2010
Canada2817 Posts
August 28 2011 13:08 GMT
#1885
Vain claim.
wat
Kurumi
Profile Blog Joined April 2010
Poland6130 Posts
August 28 2011 13:18 GMT
#1886
Who cares about Vain's and nard's claims anyway? Nard's thinking he is noisy neighbour and saying he will actively lurk is scummy as hell. I asked GM if flavour indicates role, he replied in negative, thus, sorry, but it is all false assumptions.
I work alone. // Visit TL Mafia subforum!
supersoft
Profile Joined April 2010
Germany3729 Posts
August 28 2011 13:20 GMT
#1887
On August 28 2011 20:56 nard wrote:
Liquidite- Welcome to TL Mafia XLIV you are Lysander, the retired paladin, you used to be one of the toughest people around, exterminating cults, killing deamons, and generally fighting evil. That was a long time ago though, by now the arthritis has set in and your old wounds ache, not to mention the fact you are constrained to a wheelchair. Still, the true power of a paladin is in his iron will, and you still have that. Your unflinching resolve and your vote shall be your weapons against the cult.

so i guess i'm a nosy neighbor? of course anything i say now is kinda suspicious.please think it through though - a third townie lynch will hurt us so bad i don't think we can recover from it. do we have some other way of confirming me? maybe chaoser or better, somebody unclaimed as chaoser won't survive for long i guess.
anyway like i wrote yesterday, i will be actively monitoring the thread in the following hours and am ready to respond to your stuff.


On August 28 2011 21:55 chaos13 wrote:
nard is 100% mafia. Foolish would not have missed considering all the possibilities. He had to have watched someone who died, and nard was the ONLY person visiting them. There can be no mistake here. A 100% confirmed watcher has given us a 100% confirmed mafia


game over nard
nard
Profile Joined July 2009
Germany124 Posts
August 28 2011 13:33 GMT
#1888
does this mean there is a godfather in the game? how many options are possible?

1: im scum.
2: im a nosy neighbor and the setup includes a godfather
3: ??
supersoft
Profile Joined April 2010
Germany3729 Posts
August 28 2011 14:00 GMT
#1889
On August 28 2011 22:33 nard wrote:
does this mean there is a godfather in the game? how many options are possible?

1: im scum.
2: im a nosy neighbor and the setup includes a godfather
3: ??


oh scum made their homework. Indeed if you randomly visited the poor guy who was killed by the godfather, there might be a chance that you're innocent.
But even if there was a GF, chances that you randomly visit the guy who gets killed by him are so low! Mafia also can't chose who visits whom.

mafia kills 3 people out of about 18. Depending which night foolish chose to check you.
one of them get's killed by the GF.
noisys randomly visit 1 guy out of 24 including scum?!
the chances that you're visiting someone who gets killed are like 1/8 and the chance that you visit the guy who gets killed by the GF are like 1/3*1/8=1/24

scum
xtfftc
Profile Blog Joined April 2010
United Kingdom2343 Posts
August 28 2011 14:02 GMT
#1890
Nard, care to share your thoughts on Foolishness' list?
supersoft
Profile Joined April 2010
Germany3729 Posts
August 28 2011 14:13 GMT
#1891
you think Foolishness also checked BB? he accused him pretty heavily. I believe he wouldn't do that without having him checked. I think he checked him night1 and nard night2... But why didn't he list BB as 100% scum if he checked him... hmm
chaos13
Profile Joined April 2011
Canada885 Posts
August 28 2011 14:16 GMT
#1892
On August 28 2011 23:00 supersoft wrote:
Show nested quote +
On August 28 2011 22:33 nard wrote:
does this mean there is a godfather in the game? how many options are possible?

1: im scum.
2: im a nosy neighbor and the setup includes a godfather
3: ??


oh scum made their homework. Indeed if you randomly visited the poor guy who was killed by the godfather, there might be a chance that you're innocent.
But even if there was a GF, chances that you randomly visit the guy who gets killed by him are so low! Mafia also can't chose who visits whom.

mafia kills 3 people out of about 18. Depending which night foolish chose to check you.
one of them get's killed by the GF.
noisys randomly visit 1 guy out of 24 including scum?!
the chances that you're visiting someone who gets killed are like 1/8 and the chance that you visit the guy who gets killed by the GF are like 1/3*1/8=1/24

scum



Even less than that, because you also have to determine the probability of the GF being the one who killed Foolishness' target.

On August 28 2011 23:13 supersoft wrote:
you think Foolishness also checked BB? he accused him pretty heavily. I believe he wouldn't do that without having him checked. I think he checked him night1 and nard night2... But why didn't he list BB as 100% scum if he checked him... hmm


It's possible that multiple people visited, and BB was one of them. Could he have crumbed this somewhere?
Barundar
Profile Joined May 2010
Denmark1582 Posts
August 28 2011 14:34 GMT
#1893
Seriusly. Foolishness flipped watcher. The way it works is you check someone you think will get hit, ie. someone you think is town, like as a medic. You don't get to choose a suspect to check, but if your target dies, and only one person visits, it's pretty much certain scum. Hence it's almost guaranteed that Foolishness didn't check BB. Why would he check his suspect? And if he had gotten a result where only BB visited someone who died, I'm sure he would have told us.
Bartundar
supersoft
Profile Joined April 2010
Germany3729 Posts
August 28 2011 14:38 GMT
#1894
On August 28 2011 23:34 Barundar wrote:
Seriusly. Foolishness flipped watcher. The way it works is you check someone you think will get hit, ie. someone you think is town, like as a medic. You don't get to choose a suspect to check, but if your target dies, and only one person visits, it's pretty much certain scum. Hence it's almost guaranteed that Foolishness didn't check BB. Why would he check his suspect? And if he had gotten a result where only BB visited someone who died, I'm sure he would have told us.


oh yes sorry. okay I have to reconsider that... maybe he watched himself and BB and nard roleblocked and tried to kill him?
Barundar
Profile Joined May 2010
Denmark1582 Posts
August 28 2011 14:41 GMT
#1895
I doubt a watcher can watch himself, but we can ask GM

Can a watcher watch himself?

But imo it's pointless speculating about it. Foolishness' case against BB is strong analysis by itself, it doesn't need a check on top of it.
Bartundar
Barundar
Profile Joined May 2010
Denmark1582 Posts
August 28 2011 14:43 GMT
#1896
Lol I just realised in that case he would be roleblocked and not get any check off. But my point stands, I don't think it's worth speculating about. Foolishness choose not to reveal this while pushing for Mig, so he was confident in getting scum lynched without relying on blue roles.
Bartundar
xtfftc
Profile Blog Joined April 2010
United Kingdom2343 Posts
August 28 2011 14:44 GMT
#1897
Uh... Foolishness got blocked on Night 1, fake-claimed veteran, checked Nard Night 2, died Night 3.
xtfftc
Profile Blog Joined April 2010
United Kingdom2343 Posts
August 28 2011 14:44 GMT
#1898
ninjaed by Barundar
Barundar
Profile Joined May 2010
Denmark1582 Posts
August 28 2011 15:07 GMT
#1899
So Vain? It's 17.00 in EU now.
Bartundar
Varpulis
Profile Blog Joined February 2011
United States2517 Posts
August 28 2011 15:27 GMT
#1900
On August 28 2011 21:55 chaos13 wrote:
Show nested quote +
On August 28 2011 12:48 wherebugsgo wrote:
On August 28 2011 12:27 xtfftc wrote:
Oh, and:

nard is 100% mafia. If I die it will be instantly clear how I know this information.


Can someone explain it for stupid me what was Foolishness' proof? As a watcher, he saw Nard visit someone or someone visit Nard or?


He probably watched someone who died on the previous night. He gets a report of everyone who visited that person.

If nard visited a person who died, he's almost certainly mafia. This is, of course, has to be what Foolish was saying, because he was a watcher and he was 100% sure nard is mafia.

Now, the thing about vain is that there is a TINY possibility he's not mafia. But we'll wait for his claim before anything is said.


nard is 100% mafia. Foolish would not have missed considering all the possibilities. He had to have watched someone who died, and nard was the ONLY person visiting them. There can be no mistake here. A 100% confirmed watcher has given us a 100% confirmed mafia


Show nested quote +
On August 28 2011 14:59 Varpulis wrote:
Guys, he's a claimed dt who's sure of his sanity. He's claimed his targets, how he knows his sanity, everything. Chaoser's fucked if he's mafia fake claiming, and I can't imagine why mafia would claim dt with no pressure on them.

##vote Vain

Also, Bumatlarge is scum. Without a shadow if a doubt, he's scum. Because we already have 2 good targets today, both very likely mafia (one called scum by a dead watcher, one called scum by a living dt) I'm not going to push for his lynch today, but I want to say it before I forget. I'll expand on these after I wake up, it's 2am where I am right now.


I'll go with a confirmed blue before a likely blue. We can take out Vain tomorrow, or tonight if we still have a vigilante. nard is a priority because someone we know has a power role that can prove people as mafia has stated that nard is mafia.

after a very refreshing rest, I think i'll switch my vote. chaos13 is right, in that foolishness knows what's up, and wouldn't go so far as to say that nard is 100% mafia unless he was absolutely sure.

also (though this is theorycrafty) 2 nosy neighbors have already flipped, so i think it's not likely for nard to be one to.
For he is the Oystermeister, lord of all the oysters.
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