EPTWe're short on time on today, no? Should I post my analysis or complete it? I'm like halfway done and it's already pretty long. I might just rush through the rest of it.
TL Mafia XLIV - Page 7
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wherebugsgo
Japan10647 Posts
We're short on time on today, no? Should I post my analysis or complete it? I'm like halfway done and it's already pretty long. I might just rush through the rest of it. | ||
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wherebugsgo
Japan10647 Posts
TLDR Anyway, my best conclusions. Again, bold=strong read, italic=lean, green=town, red=mafia, black=swings either way. Don't be offended if you're showing up as black/italic; it just means I don't have enough information on you. It may be due to lack of activity, or just uncertain behavior. I think that at least 1 of the italic red is mafia, and I'm willing to bet that 2 are. It'd be a miracle if all 3 are, but I'm not 100% sure. 1.Trotske replaced by iGrok 2. Lucidity 3. chaos13 4. ghrur replaced by Barundar 5. Jackal58 Liquidite (Vanilla Townie) killed night 2 6. Varpulis 7. xtfftc 8. hiro protagonist - Overly Inquisitive Liquidite (Wandering townie) lynched day 2 9. Erandorr 10. Munk-E - Overly Inquisitive Liquidite (Wandering townie) modkilled day 2 11. RayzorFlash 12. QuickSilver7 - Paladin (Vigilante) killed night 1 13. darkponcho replaced by VisceraEyes 14. Vain 15. chaoser 16. GreYMisT replaced by InserT_FreQ Liquidite (Vanilla Townie) Killed night 2 17. JeeJee - Necrophiliac Liquidite (Miller) killed night 1 18. supersoft 19. wherebugsgo 20. Navillus 21. Curu 22. Foolishness 23. nard 24. BrownBear - replaced by Bumatlarge 25. Mig 26. Sevryn - Liquidite (Vanilla Townie), lynched day 1 27. Pyo 28. Kurumi 29. Palmar Liquidite (Vanilla Townie) killed night 2 30.DropBear Guardian Angel (Medic) Killed night 2 Alright, so I'm in the process of rereading posts/votes since day 1. This one popped out to me (it's just funny as hell in retrospect) On August 20 2011 01:47 Curu wrote: youngminii Palmar why is DB scum over Sevyrn? He made a stupid policy post in Werewolves too and he was a Medic. LOL I guess when DB makes stupid policy posts he's always a medic. Anyway, moving on to the actual content of this post... I started with Day 1. My analysis this time around focuses on voting patterns and the reasons that players have given for votes. I'll try to spoiler as much as possible so this stays organized and minimizes scrolling. The first interesting vote of the game was made by Sevryn, early in the first day: + Show Spoiler [Sevryn's vote post] + On August 19 2011 23:39 Sevryn wrote: Right now DB is looking the scummiest imo and after what palmar did in Swedish house mafia I am inclined to trust him. That said if there is a good case against anyone else i would be willing to give DropBear another lookskie ## vote DropBear + Show Spoiler [vote analysis] + This comes off as scummy. In hindsight, we know that Sevryn was town, and that can actually be exemplified by some of his following posts (in particular, his calling out of Rayzorflash's ninja vote) Would I vote someone who wrote like this in a future game? Yeah, I'd probably vote them again. I'd certainly think twice about it, since I now know that townies are susceptible to coming off the wrong way, but I'd probably still consider it a scummy post. Let's forget for a minute why the post is scummy. We all "knew" it was. So then, with the majority of us thinking that Sevryn's first post was scummy, what was the effect? How would that affect the way a townperson would approach the post/vote, and how would that affect a mafia member? Next post should help answer this. + Show Spoiler [first vote on Sevryn] + First up is Curu's vote. The reason this is an important vote is because it was the first serious vote of the game, on a post a lot of us thought was scummy (just look at our one-line reactions). Curu's vote came roughly 45 minutes after Sevryn's. With the vote came a clarifying question, though, which provides me with a town read on Curu. + Show Spoiler [Curu's posts before vote] + On August 20 2011 00:01 Curu wrote: lol this is the scummiest vote I have ever seen. On August 20 2011 00:30 Curu wrote: Naw Thanks for drawing Sevyrn out though. So Sevyrn, because Palmar was a Townie in a completely different game, you decide to trust him and sheep his vote blindly? Note the times on these posts. Curu posted before he voted. This is another thing to keep in mind, it'll be of relevance in a moment. Bolded is the part that suggests to me that Curu genuinely voted Sevryn because he thought he was scummy. It's not much, and it's not conclusive, but at least it's there. Keep in mind that this vote and the explanation is too obvious/short to actually telegraph very much about a person's alignment other than the fact that they are potentially mafia. The vote will say little about a person's town alignment, and that's not really that important. A good mafia player will know this (and thus be able to blend in through a vote that is not suspicious) but a careless mafia player will not think about it and telegraph his/her alignment through the vote/vote post. This happens in vote #2 coming up. + Show Spoiler [Rayzor's vote and post] + Rayzor's vote comes BEFORE his post. This is really fishy. He votes 55 minutes after Sevryn posted, so not amazingly fast, but not slowly either. Sevryn calls out Rayzor (a hint that Sevryn is town, one that I think foolish picked up on but none of the rest of us did) and Rayzor posts an "explanation" 40 minutes after being called out, 2 hours after Sevryn's post. On August 20 2011 01:40 RayzorFlash wrote: Your post seemed like obvious scum to me, the scummiest post so far, and I will most likely be away for the rest of the day so I put in a vote against you... I'll check back later and see if I have to change it, but I doubt if I will :p Does he ask questions? Nope. Does he actually even intend to contribute? Nope. That, to me, is the hallmark of mafia. Rayzor votes Sevryn with no explanation, then when called out, provides an "explanation" that provides nothing new, and nothing other than, "you're scum and if you're not the majority target later I can change my vote anyway." A town player would be eager to contribute or discuss the lynch target. Rayzor here is more concerned about actually voting with the majority than anything else, as exemplified by his last sentence about checking back later to see if he has to change his vote. Selfish vote. Also, timing of the vote matters here. Note how he voted almost immediately after someone else did (Curu voted for Sevryn like 9 minutes before Rayzor did.) Obviously the first voter on someone always gets the most attention until someone else makes a post or a vote that is scummy. Rayzor was the second and didn't suffer from that type of attention. Let's skip forward a bit here. Xt's and BB's votes were slightly scummy to me (xt voted on Palmar and BB voted on JeeJee), with BB's vote rather scummier than xt's. He just had a bad reason for voting JeeJee, but we don't really need to focus on this; there wasn't much information to go on at the time anyway. Supersoft voted for xt for pretty good reasoning, giving me an inclination toward a town read on him at that point. Once he posted defending Sevryn I became suspicious, but reading his future posts, that wore off. Navillus had a couple posts that were like ?? but nothing that really stood out. + Show Spoiler [Mig's vote] + On August 20 2011 08:03 Mig wrote: Sevryn is by far the scummiest. His vote on DB had a ridiculously scummy reason behind it. After he got called out on it he back peddles and claims it was just a pressure vote. And he says he didn't see anything scummy about DB and his only reason for pressure voting was again because of something palmar did it swedish mafia. And then he says he took the vote off not really because he thought db was innocent but he didn't want to get lynched for bandwagoning lol. Sevryn is just lol scum. OH HERRO SCUM! Foolish was the first and only person to pick up on this post for a while. Foolish's votepost itself wasn't very detailed, but his quick two follow up posts were. He clearly described why he suspected Mig and why he didn't suspect Palmar or Sevryn. His posts had valid points; Mig didn't bring anything new. He didn't mention any of the other candidates. He didn't discuss any of the various other targets/topics that were floating around at the time. He went straight for a Sevryn vote, and it flew under most of our radars because Sevryn was really scummy to us. This is the mark of a good mafia player. His vote was ONLY readable through meta. When I went back and read some of Mig's posts over the past couple days in his previous games, I came to find that Foolish's argument has a lot of merit. Mig doesn't play like this when he is town. At the time I saw this post, I didn't fully understand because I didn't know Mig's mafia history, his meta. Now, I have a little bit of a better understanding of it, and I agree with Foolish's initial suspicions. This post alone has made me value the use of meta arguments. + Show Spoiler [intermediate votecount] + On August 20 2011 17:13 sandroba wrote: Day 1 Vote Count: DropBear Palmar sevryn Curu RayzorFlash Mig Trotske wherebugsgo Munk-E JeeJee JeeJee BrownBear Palmar Navilus chaos13 Varpulis Mig Foolishness xfttfc supersoft QuickSilver7 Here I present to you the first vote summary. In bold red are mafia I highly suspect, while in bold green are those I am (almost) certain are town. Italic green text is leaning town, italic red is leaning mafia. Black is lack of information/uncertainty. Three of the mafia reads I have today voted on Sevryn early, immediately after he made his mistake. This makes sense to me; mafia want to capitalize on a townie mistake to mask themselves. By voting a townsperson who has made themselves appear scummy, and then get that vote in as quickly as possible (but not first) a mafia player can blend in by appearing to contribute/vote for someone who is scummy without actually having to contribute anything. This is exactly what Rayzor, Mig, and Trotske did. Trotske was a little different in that he put suspicion on Foolish while voting Sevryn; his suspicion on Foolish was substantiated by his vote for DB as mayor. This made him appear less suspicious at the time, because it seemed as if he was attempting to contribute something. If you read his post, however, it's clear that he isn't actually contributing anything. Is he trying to feign contribution? Maybe. You decide. I'm putting his post in the next spoiler. BB, on the other hand, voted for JeeJee, and that too was scummy. His posts since then have painted him even scummier. Not much of a voting pattern on JeeJee though, since clearly everyone else correctly thought (I'm assuming here) that JeeJee was town. We have seen JeeJee flip, and so we all know that now. + Show Spoiler [Trotske's vote post] + On August 20 2011 08:40 Trotske wrote: I agree I think Sevryn is looking pretty scummy but I am curious what you guys think about Foolishness this is his one post after the game started. he agree's with dropbears mayor plan which gives one person the power to decide between tow people and chooses someone who hasn't been acting super pro town. This scream scummy to me, inactive and then comes in with a single line to vote on a not very town plan imo. so until he defends himself some more i'm goign to vote sevryn but foolishness needs to post something more or I am going to start pushing for his lynch. Something else to think about here is that Trotske doesn't actually support his sevryn vote. He just says that Sevryn looks scummy. He doesn't try to discuss Sevryn, he doesn't try to ask Sevryn questions. He votes with the bandwagon, and then attempts to justify his suspicion of Foolish by saying that he's a lurker. Keep in mind, this was AFTER several people said that lynching lurkers is a stupid idea. My scumread on Trotske started here. + Show Spoiler [Palmar's first serious vote] + On August 20 2011 22:20 Palmar wrote: BrownBear So, I decided to try a new tactic this game. Most towns spend day one arguing casually about policies and then lynch a scummy lurker. This is sometimes effective, sometimes kind of weird. This game I decided to just tear up the thread with some super-awesome tunneling on the first scummy fucker I found, and read responses by other people. There are two people who stick out to me as scummy from their reactions to my tunneling. Namely Sevryn and BrownBear. I feel more confident BrownBear is the scum of the two. There are quite a few things in BrownBear's logic that really scare me. First off, let's take a look at the post that initially raised my suspicions of him: I immediately called him out on the scum logic in his posts. I pointed out that one wouldn't have to make a big stretch to understand the bolded sentence as a free pass to anyone who was being active in the thread. Which conveniently enough also clears BB of any suspicion. He also mentions the possibility of two townies just shouting at each other. The reason this jumps so much out to me is that I used exactly the same logic as scum on day 1 in SNMMII as scum. I pointed out that two loudmouths were probably just townies shouting at each other and then I suggested that the real threat are the inactive people. Deflecting lynches onto inactives is mafia's favorite way of playing day 1. BrownBear's defense of this, is that I'm twisting his words. But can anyone honestly says he understands the bolded sentence in any other way than BrownBear wants to kill off inactive people over people who are active, because the active people will reveal themselves as scum at some point. Next post, after demanding contribution from me: The first sentence is interesting. He makes a point that he did not say what I called him out for, yet he implied it? What's the difference? The mindset he's working in is the same. I ask that everyone reads the post above carefully, and preferably often. Look at what he's saying. He's basically throwing a one-line accusation towards JeeJee in an attempt to divert the discussion off himself and DropBear. The bolded sentence is another one of interest. I don't actually understand how he's going to scumhunt if he actively states that "mafia is amongst the semi-actives". Well sherlock, if you tell us that you're going for semi-active people, won't the mafia just stop being semi-active? And note that he himself is definitely not amongst the semi-actives, so he cannot be mafia, by his theory. This case against JeeJee is basically just a throw-away case, BB knows well enough that JeeJee is not going to get lynched based on this case, and he's happy to look like he's not supporting a town lynch while throwing an off-vote on some random "semi-active". Interesting that he calls out for other people to back up their accusations, yet your entire case against JeeJee is: Re-read his posts. Look at them from the point of view he is scum, understand what motivations he might have for posting like this if he's town. I think we have a great lynch candidate here town. BrownBear is scum ##Vote BrownBear Here we have Palmar's vote. In contrast to some other players' votes, Palmar has reasoned his vote out well, and provided substantial thought-out analysis of his target. I saw this vote initially, and it gave me a townread on Palmar. However, I did not take his vote seriously because of the way he had been spamming. I regret not taking Palmar seriously, but the doubts I began to feel on day 2 stemmed from my frustration with his posting habits. At the very least, it serves as an example now as to what makes a good vote/voting post. Contrast this with Sevryn's, Rayzor's, Mig's, Brownbear's, and Trotske's opening vote posts. Sevryn was town, but he just made himself look scummy with that first vote. + Show Spoiler [BB's second vote post] + On August 21 2011 01:37 BrownBear wrote: And since I should practice what I preach and back up my votes (that much is true, Palmar) here's my thoughts on our friendly neighborhood sevryn: His first post in game, seems rather silly, and is the post he's caught a lot of flak over. To jump in and insta-bandwagon is usually a poor choice. Also, trusting players based off of previous games is a poor choice in general. This looks to me like someone seeing an easy early bandwagon and hopping on it, hoping they can ride out the rest of the day cycle under the radar. Pretty obviously he gets called out on it quickly, and then after a few posts this happens: LOL PRESSURE VOTE JAYKAY GUYZ. Basically, I call bullshit on this for a few reasons: He says he "made up a bullshit reason" but that's not how you properly pressure vote. You pressure vote by building a legitimate case against a guy, try to get others to agree with you, then see how he reacts when there's pressure on him. Not by going "oh palmars right he was right in previous games ALL RIGHT THEN AUTOVOTEBOTS ROLL OUT". It was pretty obvious your vote on DB had no real teeth behind it, as was shown by you backing off the instant someone yelled at you. I don't think you care about catching scum, you just want to find a hole to hide in for the rest of the day. Since then, basically nothing except feebly trying to defend his "pressure vote", and nothing since like page 15 or so. Summary: He definitely wants to hide under the radar. THe instant he got caught in the spotlight he shriveled up and backed off. This to me speaks scum or traitor. Either one is a worthy lynch candidate, and is a hell of a lot better than our usual "fuck around and then lynch a random guy" first day strategy, as palmar so succinctly put it. Vote Sevryn. Hmmm...Okay, nothing immediately popped out to me on this one. On a second read, I felt like there were some things put in here deliberately to hide behind. First: And since I should practice what I preach and back up my votes (that much is true, Palmar) here's my thoughts on our friendly neighborhood sevryn: Red part=admission he basically voted for JeeJee for no reason. Scummy. Second: Since then, basically nothing except feebly trying to defend his "pressure vote", and nothing since like page 15 or so. Summary: He definitely wants to hide under the radar. THe instant he got caught in the spotlight he shriveled up and backed off. This to me speaks scum or traitor. Either one is a worthy lynch candidate, and is a hell of a lot better than our usual "fuck around and then lynch a random guy" first day strategy, as palmar so succinctly put it. Feebly trying to defend: this is classic illogical mafia thinking. Guy defends himself, it says nothing about his alignment. How he defends himself is more important. This is why I was up for a vote switch near the end of the day. Sevryn's defense of himself appeared to be genuine, and that became more clear to me very close to the lynch deadline. By then, of course, it was too late. The second part: summary text. Just fluff. If you read BB's post carefully, you see that all of it is regurgitated stuff from like 3 other people, most notably Curu, who reiterated the case for Sevryn right before BB posted. IMO, BB saw the opportunity to shadow Curu's call for Sevryn's lynch. In the process, he simply parroted Curu. Again, nothing blatantly scummy, but generally things that are blatantly scummy are probably townies fucking up by making mistakes (as I've come to learn by experience now...thanks hiro, sevryn :p ) + Show Spoiler [Sevryn's real vote] + On August 21 2011 05:13 Sevryn wrote: Rayzorflash im calling you out. Most of his posts before I become the lynch target are speculation on what mafia would or would not want and i view this is as slightly scummy. Then he ninja votes on me and when called out and then this last post Yes you do lose something you lose a townie when i flip green and going after the people who most aggressively tried to get me lynched is all WIFOM. Also MIG just from his meta he has normally caught the entire scum team by now yet hes nowhere to be found. ##vote RayzorFlash This was the post that began to mess with my head. Until this point I was sure Sevryn was mafia. Then he came along and did this, and I was like...whoa...he might not be mafia! Decent arguments throughout this post. He also adds that tidbit toward the end about Mig. When I read this, it explained to me what Sevryn had been afk doing; he had been coming up with decent analysis to post, to contribute, rather than sit around and "feebly defend" himself. After this point I began considering Rayzor as the lynch rather than Sevryn, but I was doubtful of our ability to push that to completion. + Show Spoiler [towncred to xtfftc] + On August 21 2011 05:54 xtfftc wrote: Your post was stupid. DropBear's campaign for mayor is something worth analysing but it's not like it was going to happen, ever. Foolishness was simply acting funny. If you want to go against Foolishness, don't base your post around such a worthless argument. Also, Supersoft, after crying out about how I was avoiding casting my vote for Sevryn, we are facing the possibility of a non-linch due to you (and Jackal) unvoting. I realize that this has little to do with voting, but I feel like no one else is going to go back this far, so I felt like I needed to point this post out. This is the post that made me think xt was town for a while. I still am unsure on xt; I tend to flip between slightly red and slightly green on him. I think this is worth a second look. If anyone can find or suggest analysis that will give us a consistent read on xt, that'd be great. + Show Spoiler [vain's ninja vote] + Right in the middle of the Rayzor switch, Vain voted for Sevryn. No legible reason whatsoever: On August 21 2011 10:31 Vain wrote: Ok, i think i'm gonna vote on Rayzorflash. I just don't believe a scum would vote that fast. No, wait scrap that.Sevryn voted as 3rd for DropBear. you can say what you want about his defence but he only started with the "pressure vote" after people asked what he was doing and that counts to me more than anything. I've mentioned this before, and that's that vain has gone under the radar despite many of us calling him out on being scummy. We should look at him at some point soon. Nothing else interesting in terms of votes really happened day 1. Vote summary: + Show Spoiler [day 1 rayzor vote] + On August 21 2011 10:19 GMarshal wrote: Day 1 Vote Count: DropBear(0) sevryn(12) Curu RayzorFlash Munk-E JeeJee BrownBear Kurumi Erandorr Varpulis xtfftc Pyo Lucidity Palmar JeeJee(0) Palmar(1) chaos13 Mig(1) chaoser xfttfc(1) QuickSilver7 BrownBear(2) Barundar nard Navillus(0) RayzorFlash(8) Sevryn Jackal58 supersoft Foolishness Trotske Navillus hiro protagonist wherebugsgo Hiro Protagonist(0) chaoser(2) Mig DropBear Less than 1 hour left, Only 28 people have voted, which leaves 2 potential modkills. Dont make me modkill anyone... Only reddish vote to me on Rayzor was Trotske. It's certainly possible he isn't red, anyway. Mig came in toward the end with a vote on Sevryn. Alright. Day 2 vote analysis. The following vote summary is important. I'm not going to go step by step with day 2 votes very much, but here's the vote summary before day 2 ended, when Mig was a serious lynch candidate. + Show Spoiler + On August 23 2011 07:35 GMarshal wrote: Day 2 Vote-count Mig(6) Foolishness chaoser Jackal58 DropBear Varpulis Curu chaoser (1) Mig BrownBear(1) Palmar Foolishness(1) chaos13 Palmar(0) Hiro Protagonist(2) RayzorFlash VisceraEyes xtfftc(4) supersoft hiro protagonist wherebugsgo BrownBear Vain(0) A little over 28 hours remain in the day. Bunch of people need to vote still, Mig leading the wagon with 6 votes, but is still short of a majority Then, this one is even better: + Show Spoiler [5 min, crossed out votes included] + On August 24 2011 10:54 GMarshal wrote: Day 2 Vote-count Mig(5) Foolishness chaoser DropBear Pyo Palmar chaoser (0) BrownBear(0) Foolishness(0) Palmar(0) Hiro Protagonist(13) RayzorFlash VisceraEyes Curu Varpulis wherebugsgo Kurumi xtfftc Vain Jackal58 Mig Lucidity hiro protagonist nard xtfftc(2) supersoft BrownBear Vain(0) nard(2) GreYMisT Erandorr DropBear(1) Barundar supersoft(1) chaos13 RayzorFlash (1) DropBear chaos13(0) A little over 5 minute remain in the day. Bunch of people need to vote still, Hiro leading the wagon with 13 votes, but is still short of a majority, (14 votes) Check it out. I think that not a single mafia member voted Mig all day yesterday. I italicized my leans, but even that I'm just unsure about because there isn't enough information. I'm confident that everyone who voted for Mig yesterday was town. I'll continue to add vote analysis as I get time, and as demand wishes. If this isn't helpful, or if something confuses you about my thought process, let me know. Also, criticize my thoughts/analysis! Unless, of course, it's too much to read...lol. | ||
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THANK YOU, THANK YOU FOR NOT DOUBTING YOURSELVES MORE. THANK YOU. Also, I think my theory of Mig killing Jackal held up rofl | ||
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On August 27 2011 09:56 Vain wrote: Fuuuuuuuuuuu, i almost forgot this thing. yeah, Mig needs to be lynched and then BB i hope i'm right now:\ Vote: Mig What the eff is this? If this isn't lurking mafia, I don't know what is. Filter him. I think you just got worthy of being upgraded to BOLD RED. Also, I just took a gander at the voting thread to see if the day 3 voting pattern can shed any more light on mafia. I think my read on Trotske may be wrong, or the switch to iGrok is throwing my read off. At any rate, here's the day 3 vote count right before those last 3 Mig votes. On August 27 2011 05:39 GMarshal wrote: Day 3 Votecount Mig(14) iGrok (BB) chaos13 chaoser wherebugsgo Pyo supersoft Kurumi Curu Varpulis RayzorFlash xtfftc Erandorr Barundar Foolishness Supersoft(0) chaos13(1) Mig RayzorFlash(0) BrownBear/Bumatlarge(3) nard ????Navillus Lucidity??? Mig leading with 14 votes and a majority of the votes. It takes 12 to lynch Lucidity's and Navillus's vote are a little suspicious, Lucidity's less so because he actually had a reason for voting BB over Mig. Or at least, he gave one/showed doubts about why Mig is better than BB as a lynch target. I'm still black on him. However, no one has ever done analysis of Navillus. Is he possibly a lurking mafia member? Now, the final vote, with those last 3 votes: On August 27 2011 11:46 GMarshal wrote: Day 3 FINAL Votecount Mig(17) iGrok chaos13 chaoser wherebugsgo Pyo supersoft Kurumi Curu Varpulis RayzorFlash xtfftc Erandorr Barundar Foolishness Lucidity Vain VisceraEyes Supersoft(0) chaos13(1) Mig RayzorFlash(0) BrownBear/Bumatlarge(2) nard Navillus Foolishness(1) bumatlarge Mig to be lynched Bum's vote is either total ignorance or OMGUS. Since I was reading scum on BB I think we should keep a close eye on bum tomorrow. Let's ignore his vote for now. Lucidity, Vain, and Viscera all voted really late. Is one of them scum? I think at least Vain is scum. His voting pattern, inactivity, lack of contribution, etc. all point to him being scum. Lucidity I think is probably just a townie who thought BB was a better lynch target, but there isn't enough information on this guy to be sure. (Lucidity, if you're town, this means post more. Hell, even if you're mafia you'll probably post more, but at least if you're mafia we'll be able to pick you apart) Viscera seems to be town to me because he voted Mig earlier. It just seems like he forgot to put his vote in the vote thread. I can't really explain his inactivity, but I'm not being given any scum tells so I can't really accuse Viscera on any objective grounds. More time is needed, and of course he'll get it because there are MUCH better scum leads than him. So, I guess nothing really changes in my assessment except for the fact that I'm more confident of Vain being scum now, and although BB screamed scum to me we should probably give bum at least a day to live, just so we can ensure we don't mislynch. So, my focus list: 1. Rayzorflash 2. Vain 3. nard 4. bumatlarge 5. iGrok 6. xtfftc 7. Navillus 8. Pyo 9. Lucidity | ||
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1. Rayzorflash 2. Vain 3. nard 4. bumatlarge 5. iGrok 6. xtfftc 7. Navillus 8. Pyo 9. Lucidity | ||
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On August 21 2011 10:38 Foolishness wrote: Can someone remind me tomorrow that we should kill Vain? | ||
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On August 27 2011 13:26 iGrok wrote: @WBG: You still think I'm mafia? After I started the vote for Mig, shot down attempts to split votes between Mig and BB, and... well I haven't told you why Kurumi is scum yet. I've got to think about when to release that, I'm not sure if it'd be better far in advance or right before daypost. If you're worried about it, post it before the daypost. I thought Trotske was mafia. I used to be more certain of it, then I kinda reread some stuff and I was somewhat unsure. I left it italic red because I realized that second-guessing isn't always the best idea. From your posts alone I'd lean town on you. However, you don't have many posts; just about a page. That isn't really your fault, seeing as you're a replacement, but I'd just prefer to see you post more before I go back on that assessment. The problem right now, of course, is that there are still a few lingering lurkers. Mafia can be one of them. Pyo, for example. No one's really considered that guy at all. | ||
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Let's start with Rayzor. We can move on from there but I think vain/nard would be good choices. The other one I'd like to point out is Trotske/iGrok, but I'm sure by the time we finish lynching Rayzor (like 60 hours from now?) we'll have a lot more information about the lurkingish mafia. | ||
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On August 27 2011 13:26 iGrok wrote: @WBG: You still think I'm mafia? After I started the vote for Mig, shot down attempts to split votes between Mig and BB, and... well I haven't told you why Kurumi is scum yet. I've got to think about when to release that, I'm not sure if it'd be better far in advance or right before daypost. Oops, I meant to add this to the post, but I had two windows open :/ I don't know if you're mafia, honestly. I think it's best to keep you alive for a day or two, and kill one of Rayzor/vain. | ||
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On August 28 2011 07:57 GMarshal wrote: flavor text's are just that, flavor. Noisy Neighbors and Millers are not informed of their sad condition Also, storm is getting pretty nasty out here, if I lose power expect the day-post to be delayed. Ah that sucks. I hope you're alright, stay safe! I feel bad, I'm here in California munching on my chocolate bread, it's sunny outside and my only worry is getting chocolate and crumbs all over my laptop  On August 28 2011 08:59 iGrok wrote: Well, that's good enough. So: The case against Kurumi. Read all of these quotes. Also, Kurumi had been going on for a while (4 days ago in real time) about having a bullet (he said it was a hammer repeatedly) - and yet he was neither blocked nor killed? Either supersoft is town (unlikely), or Kurumi is scum. Furthermore: Including hiro-protagonist in your list of a scum circle after he's already flipped blue. What the fuck? And then, finally, there's my pressure for a claim. Or more specifically, your response. You claim does call for you to have a knife. In fact, it fits perfectly. Some of you may have noted already that Kurumi's claim contradicts my first point. After I accused Kurumi of scum, I pm'd GMarshal asking if dayposts were pure flavor or not. He replied in the affirmative (I'm not posting a pm here), however after reading all the lists of roles and previous day and night posts, I'm afraid that GMarshal's brilliant writing may have revealed more than he meant to, and I believe that this perfect roleclaim is his answer to it. Filter Kurumi's posts. Every time his kp comes it, its a HAMMER. Now, what did Kurumi do at the beginning of the game? He pissed people off, got the town angry (well, most people ignored him to be fair). I'll finish later but I have to run. ----maaaaybe. I'm not convinced, but it doesn't matter, I think we'll have a day or two at least to build a case against Kurumi (if it exists). In the same time, Kurumi will also be able to show whether or not he is town-aligned with some more activity and contribution. Meanwhile, I say we lynch Vain, since we seem to have doubts about Rayzor. (I don't, but I'm only one voice, what can I say? :D ) I suppose I should reiterate that we can't second guess ourselves. Also, I've been taking a close look at bumatlarge/BB's posts over the past night. His vote on foolish was rather strange to me, but I guess it could be excused by the fact that he didn't know foolish was almost 100% confirmed town. I say we keep a close eye on bum. BAL, you should contribute to our scum hunting efforts. Otherwise, I can't say much for wanting to keep you alive in a day or two. | ||
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On August 28 2011 10:55 Foolishness wrote: nard is 100% mafia. If I die it will be instantly clear how I know this information. Yes it's 100%. I wanted to bring this information up yesterday but the timing never came, especially after Mig claimed. It should be clear why I had everyone write up what they thought about those 3 people. Make sure to look at the people who didn't respond to that (there are a few who did, and they are all on my suspect list). Kill nard today so that the mafia will have their KP reduced. Mafia list: nard, BrownBear, Barundar, Pyo, RayzorFlash. If one of those flip green then Erandorr. and vain? He's not mafia? | ||
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We can kill nard, vain, or Rayzor today I think. | ||
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On August 28 2011 11:11 chaoser wrote: Alright guys, since foolishness has fallen, I fear soon for my life... I am a DT Inquisitor - welcome to TL Mafia XLIV you are High Inquisitor Scarn, here in liquidia on independent assignment to lead the actions against the cult. You are perhaps the oldest living inquisitor, and with age comes experience and wisdom . You scorn weapons as below the dignity of an Inquisitor, instead you will use your investigative abilities to crush the cult.You may check a player each night and see if he is Innocent or Guilty . Be cautious however, ever since you took a blow to the head while facing off against the Deamon Lord Sepultus in the ancient abandoned temple of the burning flame you have been unsure of the reliability of your investigative abilities and even of your grasp on reality. I checked Mig night one and got back guilty which is why I've been on his ass for so long. To check my own sanity I checked Foolishness night two and got back green so I know I'm sane. When mig flipped red it proved it beyond a doubt. I checked vain last night and got back [r]red[/r]. I say we lynch vain today over since I'm more sure of his scumminess over nard's. EDITTED: in exactly how my pm looks wtf...why the hell did you reveal now and not later in the day? Alright. Anyway, I'm up for lynching nard or vain. However, I'm right now more comfortable with lynching nard based on what Foolish breadcrumbed us. I'm going to lead that lynch right now. ##vote nard Now, the (IMO) more important matter of today: If I'm not mistaken, mafia still has a KP of THREE. Only TWO people died last night. Therefore, SOMEONE got saved. We need that someone to identify themselves so that we can reevaluate our scumlists. Right now, there are 12 townies left and 5 mafia. It's potentially 11 townies and 5 mafia plus 1 traitor, but there's still work to do. I doubt we have a vig left, and we probably don't have a medic either, so we're going to be going down 2 at a time, while we can only kill mafia 1 at a time during day. IMO this means we need to be VERY careful about who we lynch for the next 3 days. If we can get mafia down to 2 then we'll be in a strong position to win, as at that point mafia will have a KP of 1 and we'll hopefully still be 6 or 7 on the day we have 2 mafia left. Nard is a sureshot, we lynch him today. I'm strongly suspicious of vain and bumatlarge still, so we can potentially look at them as well, but I'm for lynching them tomorrow/day after. That leaves 2 more to kill, which we can worry about in the coming days. In my opinion one of them is almost certainly [red]Rayzor/red], and the last one could be several people, so we need to take some time before throwing any names out there, because any distractions to us now could be fatal. Again, I implore town to be confident in scumreads and to NOT doubt yourselves. We cannot afford a mistake. Let's lynch nard today, it's an assured hit to mafia. ##vote nard | ||
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On August 28 2011 11:46 chaoser wrote: What's the difference between revealing now and later in the day? Later in the day everyone already has settled into a topic, I'd rather get it out of the way and have everyone talk about it rather than psot it midway through the cycle and break up conversation Fair enough. It can be perceived as a little scummy to claim so early. IMO the best time to claim is at the end of the day. Besides, why claim at all? The less information mafia have about our roles, the better. Since we probably don't have a medic now, you're probably dead tomorrow. You're the most useful player to us if you're indeed a DT. I would've been fine with this if DB never flipped medic. However, he's dead, and that raises some problems with power roles claiming. | ||
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I guess it's not as scummy as claiming 2-3 hours before the day ends with voting still in progress...that tends to come off really badly since people think you're attempting a vote switch. | ||
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On August 28 2011 12:01 Pyo wrote: why would you claim now of all times... you have a whole day to push for a vain lynch and now you're dead tonight. Oh well, I guess we should at least make use of your inevitable death and lower mafia kp to 2 and force them to double tap you. #vote: Vain Dude, you better start posting more before I start tunneling you into doing that. You're just BARELY staying under the modkill threshold. Either you're mafia or you're just absolutely lazy. Anyway, if over the course of the next 48 hours you don't become more active, you will CERTAINLY become part of my shortlist for mafia #6. + Show Spoiler + of course, the caveat is that posting more won't actually save you either, you gotta actually contribute stuff to help us hunt mafia lol | ||
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On August 28 2011 12:27 xtfftc wrote: Oh, and: Can someone explain it for stupid me what was Foolishness' proof? As a watcher, he saw Nard visit someone or someone visit Nard or? He probably watched someone who died on the previous night. He gets a report of everyone who visited that person. If nard visited a person who died, he's almost certainly mafia. This is, of course, has to be what Foolish was saying, because he was a watcher and he was 100% sure nard is mafia. Now, the thing about vain is that there is a TINY possibility he's not mafia. But we'll wait for his claim before anything is said. | ||
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You know what I mean? | ||
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