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TL Mafia XLIII - Page 54

Forum Index > TL Mafia
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Barundar
Profile Joined May 2010
Denmark1582 Posts
August 11 2011 09:26 GMT
#1061
Well ignoring him because 2 scum was on that wagon already seems about as pointless as lynching based on guesses as to setup. Saying "no scum team would place 3 out of 4 votes on same guy day one" is as saying "no mods would put 6 vets in a game".

Kenpachi was the first to break the wave of votes going on to syllogism yesterday and vote chaos13 instead. While I agree he is also unreadable and should be killed off before lylo, I think sevryn is way scummier.
Bartundar
syllogism
Profile Joined September 2010
Finland5948 Posts
August 11 2011 09:35 GMT
#1062
No it's not, it's typical scum play to spread votes like that, especially considering they weren't in a position to save Varpulis. If the vote had been closer, it would have been more likely that they were stacked on drazerk. Generally wifom only applies to late game situations, especially lylo. Until then, risking optimal (ie. logical) play to mislead town rarely happens. Further, I'm not saying Sevryn should be ignored based on that, it's just one thing you should take into account, as I said.
ghrur
Profile Blog Joined May 2009
United States3786 Posts
August 11 2011 14:48 GMT
#1063
Look, syllo, so far, all the mafia we've lynched have been on Drazerk's list. Given that BC tried to re-direct the lynch to Drazerk and Kenpachi (not just as a joke) on Day1, it's perfectly likely that BC could be the last mafia. He even played it "optimally" by switching over to GG at the end so the votecount was spread out with 2 on Drazerk, 1 on GG, 1 on Lucidity. If you think about that, BC's much more likely to be scum than Sevryn because otherwise it'd be 3 on drazerk, 1 on Lucidity, and that's not exactly optimal is it?

I'd say the order: BC->Sevryn->Kenpachi works better. Kenpachi isn't scummy per se, he's just unknown. I don't think we should start offing in preparation for Lylo now, but he should definitely be gone by the time Lylo hits.
darkness overpowering
syllogism
Profile Joined September 2010
Finland5948 Posts
August 11 2011 14:57 GMT
#1064
Well now you are only taking one thing into consideration, and based on other things that have occurred, and analysis of his posts and irc behaviour, I think he is less likely to be scum than the other two. Maybe Kenpachi hasn't been particularly scummy (this isn't actually correct as hardcore lurking is scummy), but Sandroba's play on day 1 was, in retrospect, quite curious if you know how he usually plays. Weak FoSs/pressure votes aren't his style. He promised a "huge case" on our skype chat, right before he left the game (this obviously is coincidental, just mentioning it because we never got the case), but didn't mention who the case was going to be about. Me and mig thought it was peculiar, but since he left the game we kind of forgot it.
ghrur
Profile Blog Joined May 2009
United States3786 Posts
August 11 2011 15:18 GMT
#1065
On August 11 2011 23:57 syllogism wrote:
Well now you are only taking one thing into consideration, and based on other things that have occurred, and analysis of his posts and irc behaviour, I think he is less likely to be scum than the other two. Maybe Kenpachi hasn't been particularly scummy (this isn't actually correct as hardcore lurking is scummy), but Sandroba's play on day 1 was, in retrospect, quite curious if you know how he usually plays. Weak FoSs/pressure votes aren't his style. He promised a "huge case" on our skype chat, right before he left the game (this obviously is coincidental, just mentioning it because we never got the case), but didn't mention who the case was going to be about. Me and mig thought it was peculiar, but since he left the game we kind of forgot it.


But I'm also taking into account the things Curu pointed out, that is, BC has tried to redirect the lynch off every mafia except JeeJee. BC was trying really hard to not lynch chaos yesterday, and pushed you/TAA as fodder. I also don't like the idea of having 6 vets in the game. :/ Then, of course, there's the BC who was so ardently against majority lynch yet never arguing against it in thread. There's the idea that one of you/DrH/BC must be scum or else why would mafia shoot into that medic mess?

Look, I don't disagree that Kenpachi should be lynched, but I don't think he's scummier than BC at this point. He lurks, but so does DrH. Kenpachi usually lurks anyway. :/ I never talked to Sandroba, but I thought most people found kenpachi less scummy because of his play, not more scummy.
darkness overpowering
syllogism
Profile Joined September 2010
Finland5948 Posts
August 11 2011 15:25 GMT
#1066
If the mafia was gullible enough to believe that BC and DrH are medics, they had to take them out before their rb dies or autolose. Roleblocking one and shooting the other makes perfect sense in that situation; indeed, the whole plan was to get them to waste their shot like that. Of course it's possible that they wasted a shot intentionally to gain town cred, but I don't think we can read too much into that either way.
BloodyC0bbler
Profile Blog Joined September 2004
Canada7876 Posts
August 11 2011 15:49 GMT
#1067
On August 12 2011 00:25 syllogism wrote:
If the mafia was gullible enough to believe that BC and DrH are medics, they had to take them out before their rb dies or autolose. Roleblocking one and shooting the other makes perfect sense in that situation; indeed, the whole plan was to get them to waste their shot like that. Of course it's possible that they wasted a shot intentionally to gain town cred, but I don't think we can read too much into that either way.


Why not read into that? That is exactly what I would have done as mafia, it is something drH would at least consider. Factor in how you were "confirmed' day 1, its also plausible for you to pull off as well.


I know based on my actions the previous day I am fucked. HOWEVER. If you start lynching into the vet list once you do not stop at me. When I flip vet you don't stop, syllo and drH must follow.


IF both of them flip town you would lynch lucidity then move onto ON. Provided no better analysis appears. I have no issues with how you guys opt to start lynching be it inactives or into the vet list, however if you start with 1 you finish it before moving on. However what baffles me the most is the longer you wait to clear out the vet list the more likely you will sit at lylo in a situation you don't know who is red and who isn't. The general fact people are discussing killing inactives before offing the vets screams to me that the mafia does not want you lynching there, trying to put it off.

I could be horribly wrong, but regardless, if you start with vets you finish clearing them before moving into inactives, regardless of how much that scares you to have people left that you don't want there.
#3 Member of the Chill Fanclub / Rhaegar fought nobly. Rhaegar fought valiantly. Rhaegar fought honorably. And Rhaeger died. --Ser Jorah Mormont TL MAFIA FORUM http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/index.php?show_part=31 go go !
syllogism
Profile Joined September 2010
Finland5948 Posts
August 11 2011 15:54 GMT
#1068
Kenpachi is still lurking, claimed that he his "confident in his LYLO play" and then proceeded to say we won't get to LYLO so we don't have to lynch him or something. You were suspicious of him day 1, what has changed? We've two players who we can't read well, and I think we can afford to take them out first. Then we can look into the vets/remaining players and lynch. You appear to be willing to lynch based on role speculation rather than analysis, which I now disagree with.
Kenpachi
Profile Blog Joined August 2009
United States9908 Posts
August 11 2011 17:59 GMT
#1069
whatever
Nada's body is South Korea's greatest weapon.
Sevryn
Profile Joined September 2010
698 Posts
August 11 2011 20:58 GMT
#1070
Okay so we either have two confirmed townies or a lying town and the other is scum. Kenpachi and BC have both claimed to be role blocked. so they are both town. or one is lying and the other is retarded. personally i think they are both town because with this many vets it makes sense for the setup to have 2 RB with this many vets.
GMarshal
Profile Blog Joined March 2010
United States22154 Posts
August 11 2011 21:03 GMT
#1071
*pokes the thread, with a pointy stick*
Moderator
Sevryn
Profile Joined September 2010
698 Posts
August 11 2011 21:07 GMT
#1072
*goo oozes out*
Curu
Profile Joined March 2010
Canada2817 Posts
August 11 2011 22:24 GMT
#1073
*resurrect Curu*
wat
GMarshal
Profile Blog Joined March 2010
United States22154 Posts
August 11 2011 22:56 GMT
#1074
I think its time we lynched Kurumi, the guy's been lurking hard core, he only posts around the day/night posts and never adds any arguments as to who is scum or town.

##Vote: Kurumi
Moderator
Curu
Profile Joined March 2010
Canada2817 Posts
August 11 2011 23:26 GMT
#1075
Says the guy with 5 posts in the thread. Nice try.

##Vote Gmarshal
wat
Sevryn
Profile Joined September 2010
698 Posts
August 11 2011 23:39 GMT
#1076
we have less than 24 hours left to kill someone i think we should wait for 48 hours and not hammer someone so we can get modkills.
Since I am pretty sure BC and kenpachi are town im going to say lucidity is scum because of how anti chaos lynch he was.
##vote lucid
Sevryn
Profile Joined September 2010
698 Posts
August 12 2011 00:11 GMT
#1077
sigh I'm retarded
Sevryn
Profile Joined September 2010
698 Posts
August 12 2011 00:29 GMT
#1078
[20:07] <Lucidity> do you realise that BC was the one who tried to move the lynch from chaos?
[20:07] <sevryn> except im like 90% sure hes town
[20:08] <sevryn> why would two people lie about being roleblocked when one obviously isn't scum
[20:08] <Lucidity> scum can choose not to RB
[20:08] <Lucidity> and then claim they were..
[20:09] <sevryn> well fuck
[20:09] <sevryn> okay im retarded time to go back to the drawing board
[20:11] <sevryn> can you still explain your reasoning as to why you thought chaos wasnt scum?
[20:12] <sevryn> and post it in the thread please so we get some activity in there
[20:19] <Lucidity> i never thought he wasn't scum
[20:19] <Lucidity> the reason you posted for voting for him wasn't scummy though
[20:19] <Lucidity> he voted for jeejee
[20:19] <Lucidity> it was over
[20:20] <Lucidity> so he just presented another case for the following day so long
[20:23] <sevryn> what an easy way for scum to say they arn't trying to distract from the lynch when they present an alternative case. distracting from the lynch
[20:24] <sevryn> sure its not as good of a derail but it makes him look alot less scummy when his buddy flips red
[20:24] <sevryn> if he had hard protected him he would have been lynched anyway
[20:24] <Lucidity> I don't agree that it was a distraction
[20:25] <Lucidity> but chaos is dead so it doesn't matter ;p
[20:25] <Lucidity> bedtimez
[20:25] <Lucidity> gnite






Lucidity posts a valid point about how even if there is a roleblocker they can just not roleblock and claim to have been makes my preivous two confirmed townie plan not work.
however The fact that he doesnt see how chaos was soft protecting JeeJee makes me think he is either scum or just poor townie play also with his claimed vet i think he is still the best lynch candidate.
TheAwesomeAll
Profile Joined January 2011
Netherlands1609 Posts
August 12 2011 06:18 GMT
#1079
On August 12 2011 08:39 Sevryn wrote:
we have less than 24 hours left to kill someone i think we should wait for 48 hours and not hammer someone so we can get modkills.
Since I am pretty sure BC and kenpachi are town im going to say lucidity is scum because of how anti chaos lynch he was.
##vote lucid

also day 1 no scum jumped on the lucid bandwagon, while it was their only opportunity to save varp.
##vote lucidity
dr Helvetica <3
Barundar
Profile Joined May 2010
Denmark1582 Posts
August 12 2011 08:03 GMT
#1080
I actually agree, lucid is a good lynch today, he is the only one of the vet claims im not sure of.
Bartundar
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