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TL Mafia XLIII - Page 53

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Lucidity
Profile Joined July 2010
South Africa603 Posts
August 10 2011 20:27 GMT
#1041
There aren't 6 Vets man :/
Valar Morghulis
Barundar
Profile Joined May 2010
Denmark1582 Posts
August 10 2011 20:34 GMT
#1042
I've had a clear town read on BC all game, but I honestly don't think we can take the chance not to lynch him after yesterday. I'll have a look at ghrur, sevryn and lucid tomorrow though.
Bartundar
syllogism
Profile Joined September 2010
Finland5948 Posts
August 10 2011 20:36 GMT
#1043
I find it curious day post got posted right when Kenpachi woke up, after being delayed so long. He is definitely among the people who need to die before LYLO
syllogism
Profile Joined September 2010
Finland5948 Posts
August 10 2011 21:40 GMT
#1044
He was also around for day 3 and day 4 posts, both of which weren't posted until mafia had submitted their actions.
Kenpachi
Profile Blog Joined August 2009
United States9908 Posts
August 10 2011 21:41 GMT
#1045
On August 11 2011 05:36 syllogism wrote:
I find it curious day post got posted right when Kenpachi woke up, after being delayed so long. He is definitely among the people who need to die before LYLO

so evil. It was a coincidence. im also confident in my Lylo (because i was there many times)
Nada's body is South Korea's greatest weapon.
syllogism
Profile Joined September 2010
Finland5948 Posts
August 10 2011 21:43 GMT
#1046
On August 11 2011 06:41 Kenpachi wrote:
Show nested quote +
On August 11 2011 05:36 syllogism wrote:
I find it curious day post got posted right when Kenpachi woke up, after being delayed so long. He is definitely among the people who need to die before LYLO

so evil. It was a coincidence. im also confident in my Lylo (because i was there many times)

We don't want you around because you are one of the few people remaining who can't be read and Sandroba did little to make himself look day 1.

I don't believe in coincidences; day post timing isn't conclusive, indeed smart mafia would realize that, but this mafia team hasn't been smart so far
syllogism
Profile Joined September 2010
Finland5948 Posts
August 10 2011 21:43 GMT
#1047
EBWOP: "make himself look town"
Kenpachi
Profile Blog Joined August 2009
United States9908 Posts
August 10 2011 21:44 GMT
#1048
On August 11 2011 06:43 syllogism wrote:
Show nested quote +
On August 11 2011 06:41 Kenpachi wrote:
On August 11 2011 05:36 syllogism wrote:
I find it curious day post got posted right when Kenpachi woke up, after being delayed so long. He is definitely among the people who need to die before LYLO

so evil. It was a coincidence. im also confident in my Lylo (because i was there many times)

We don't want you around because you are one of the few people remaining who can't be read and Sandroba did little to make himself look day 1.

I don't believe in coincidences; day post timing isn't conclusive, indeed smart mafia would realize that, but this mafia team hasn't been smart so far

that makes sense
Nada's body is South Korea's greatest weapon.
Kenpachi
Profile Blog Joined August 2009
United States9908 Posts
August 10 2011 21:48 GMT
#1049
Meh, i promise we wont get to Lylo. Im confident we will win before then
Nada's body is South Korea's greatest weapon.
Barundar
Profile Joined May 2010
Denmark1582 Posts
August 10 2011 22:50 GMT
#1050
I'm going to ##Vote sevryn

First of all I don't think BC is scum. He pushed the JeeJee lynch and was part of the town circle. Also he has appeared town in the conversations I've had with him. That said, I think he was/is wrong on syllo being mafia (not sure if you still think this?).

Second of all we have to prepare for a potential lylo. That means getting rid of people we don't have a read on. And while I agree Kenpachi is a lurker who can be hard to read, Sevryn has simply been lurking more hardcore this game. On top of that sevryn sheeped after BC on to Drazerk day one like chaos13 and JeeJee - in fact he didn't even comment on the varp case at all.
Bartundar
Lucidity
Profile Joined July 2010
South Africa603 Posts
August 10 2011 23:15 GMT
#1051
So we're accepting that there are 6 Vets now??
Valar Morghulis
Barundar
Profile Joined May 2010
Denmark1582 Posts
August 10 2011 23:25 GMT
#1052
On August 11 2011 08:15 Lucidity wrote:
So we're accepting that there are 6 Vets now??

It's silly to lynch solely based on guesses as to the setup. We now know there are at least 5 vets, but Munk-E got lynched because no one thought that was a possibility. If we lynch BC is it because of his actions yesterday, not his claim.
Bartundar
OriginalName
Profile Blog Joined July 2010
Canada1140 Posts
August 11 2011 05:13 GMT
#1053
Less Lurky more talky.

Id like to lynch a vet today:

My choices are:

1. DrH
2. BC
3. Syllo

Each has his or her own merits.

DrH

Strong pro-town game early but hasnt spoken since D3ish.

BC:

Weird lurking passive style Early game but has been getting quite good up until his hard push on syllo.

Syllo:

Didnt really do much early game, appearently talked to Mig alot. Defense was kind of lackluster but his IRC presence has seemed quite similer to BC, in the fact that it was more town oriented in most ways.

Those are just my most general of all observations on all players.
ghrur
Profile Blog Joined May 2009
United States3787 Posts
August 11 2011 07:01 GMT
#1054
DrH might get modkilled so we might not actually need to kill him, lol.
darkness overpowering
syllogism
Profile Joined September 2010
Finland5948 Posts
August 11 2011 08:42 GMT
#1055
How about this order: Kenpachi, Sevryn, BC

Kenpachi - Sandroba didn't play very long, but look at his posts on day 1. There is only a single post that relates to scum hunting, and that is a very weak FoS towards Varpulis, in which he even states he doesn't have a problem with his posts. Further, later he goes on to say on skype he thinks Varpulis just a null read / dumb (?). Kenpachi hasn't done anything either, except vote along with every wagon. I'm not sure where his confidence that the game will end before lylo stems from when he obviously isn't putting much effort into the game. One of the few players who hasn't been active on irc.

Sevryn - Another person who hasn't posted enough to get a good read on and also hasn't been active on irc. I'm getting a townie vibe from some of the posts though, so I'd rather lynch Kenpachi first.

BC - I don't actually want to lynch him anymore, because I now realize we should lynch based on analysis rather than solely based on what we guess the role setup is. We know for sure there are at least 5 vets, so 6 isn't completely out of the question. His posts and irc behaviour look towny to me, I think I was tunnelling him a bit due to his case against me and the unwillingness to believe there could be 6 vets. If he was mafia, I don't see him offering that 1:1 trade yesterday, even to postpone chaos13 lynch, because if I had been lynched, he would have been lynched on the day after and then naturally chaos13. I'm only including him in the lynch chain in case some of you still aren't convinced; I'd rather not have him around as the autolynch if we get to LYLO. Can be replaced with any other vet of your choice, as long as you accompany analysis to support the lynch.

If the game isn't over by this point, things get more difficult to predict, so I'm not even going to try. Just lynch based on who is alive and who has done the least to make himself look towny. I'm suggesting this approach because it don't think any of the remaining players have made any apparent scum slips, so a simple process of elimination works better. I could do a list of almost-confirmed-townies, but doing it this early would just help scum with their hits.
syllogism
Profile Joined September 2010
Finland5948 Posts
August 11 2011 08:46 GMT
#1056
Oh and regarding sevryn; I've a hard time believing they were desperate enough to save varpulis to have 3 of their own vote in a block on a lynch candidate that didn't really have meaningful support from town
Barundar
Profile Joined May 2010
Denmark1582 Posts
August 11 2011 09:14 GMT
#1057
On August 11 2011 17:46 syllogism wrote:
Oh and regarding sevryn; I've a hard time believing they were desperate enough to save varpulis to have 3 of their own vote in a block on a lynch candidate that didn't really have meaningful support from town

Just wanna point out this is wifom and goes for BC as well.
Bartundar
syllogism
Profile Joined September 2010
Finland5948 Posts
August 11 2011 09:19 GMT
#1058
On August 11 2011 18:14 Barundar wrote:
Show nested quote +
On August 11 2011 17:46 syllogism wrote:
Oh and regarding sevryn; I've a hard time believing they were desperate enough to save varpulis to have 3 of their own vote in a block on a lynch candidate that didn't really have meaningful support from town

Just wanna point out this is wifom and goes for BC as well.

It's not, it's typical scum play. Wifom is such an overused term over here
syllogism
Profile Joined September 2010
Finland5948 Posts
August 11 2011 09:20 GMT
#1059
That is not to say scum can't all vote for drazerk, it's just that it's more likely that they did not. Obviously you aren't deciding whether to lynch someone based on something that minute, but it's one thing you should take into consideration
syllogism
Profile Joined September 2010
Finland5948 Posts
August 11 2011 09:23 GMT
#1060
I mean if we go down that road with wifom, we can literally apply the term to everything players do. The fact of the mater remains is that some actions are more likely than others. You might have a point if the TL scum play was good enough and they similarly thought townies were good enough to apply that line of thinking. That's only when this kind of levelling wars really start to become relevant.
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