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On July 21 2011 20:00 Palmar wrote:
yeah lol.
Let the 3rd parties deal with him
scenario a) Rol is joker, both batman and raas try to kill him, batman succeeds, we rid us of them all
scenario b) rol is batman, ra'as tries to kill him and succeeds, joker probably shoots at random. we rid us of 2 sks
scenario c) RoL is ra'as, batman tries to kill him, thus stalling his kp for the night, joker shoots at random. we lynch rol if he's alive tomorrow and rid us of all sks, while having tied batman's kp up this night.
Any holes in this?
I see one glaring hole. Namely that I am not third party.
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whatever, you go convince them in pms that.
We're discussing lynch targets here.
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I have not had a chance to read the thread in detail since yesterday and won't be able to till tomorrow afternoon since I got a job interview lined up for tomorrow morning. I am putting a placeholder vote on myself for now and won't post an actual vote till I am able to have sufficient time to read through and analyze the thread tomorrow afternoon.
Also, FYI I have not been in contact with anyone via PM's (Except an off-topic one to Palmar) so that people don't waste time trying to figure if I am/was active in PM-land or not.
Skimming over the thread, I have come up across three key things:
1. Did Curu confirm to anyone (apart from Mig) that
a. he was a compulsive vig
b. he was going to shoot Coag
2. Regarding decon's post - Is it usual that there are some so many clues in a day post. I would have thought there are clues pointing to 1 or 2 people in one day post. But your analysis suggests that the post is pointing towards 5 out of 8 anti-town people left now. My take on it is 'Are we reading too much into the post?'
3. Finally, I have found that several people are sure that RoL is black while at the same time not enough people want to lynch blacks tonight. If there is consensus that RoL is black, we should lynch him because that is 1 KP less straight away for night-time. It is better to minimize anti-town KP.
Also, decon's analysis (if taken at face value) suggests that it is highly likely that RoL is Joker. If that is true, lynching joker would remove all 3 3rd party's from the game and decrease the anti-town KP by 3 straight up. I can see the merits of not lynching II's but not lynching KP-enabled black's seems foolish.
Lastly, if the clues are removed from the day post by Batman/Joker, is that information also provided to the town or is it something we need to figure out?
Well that is my post for now. I won't be back till probably 3 pm EST tomorrow.
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FREEAGLELAND26782 Posts
Wait holy what Nazgul is playing??
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On July 22 2011 01:10 flamewheel wrote:
Wait holy what Nazgul is playing??
yup, Nazgul the Man himself.
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On July 22 2011 01:10 flamewheel wrote:
Wait holy what Nazgul is playing??
YES CERITOS!
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yo scum.
we're not lynching a black because blacks take care of blacks. If he is the joker, the batman will hit him tonight and kill him anyway. Sure, we may lose one extra townie from joker's kill, but that's just collateral damage. Ra'as will also hit RoL because RoL could just as well be batman.
if RoL survives until tomorrow we'll have wasted batman's hit, the joker will have killed one townie, and we need to lynch rol, as that means he's Ra'as
So, stop discussing it, it makes no sense to kill RoL with a lynch, when he's a problem that will solve itself.
I'd much rather discuss potential lynch candidates.
Nisani201 is looking really bad, Pyo is still playing anti-town, Mr. Wiggles is possibly a problem, based on notasmurf's plan.
These are the people we should be focusing on, not RoL.
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You're right, I just read through the thread and I no longer think that RoL should be lynched.
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Actually, if you are ra'as RoL, you should probably just shut up, as you know you'll survive until tomorrow.
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On July 22 2011 00:58 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote:Show nested quote +On July 21 2011 18:27 Palmar wrote:
Here's my logic.
RoL wasn't worth saving, no Medic would ever think he was some kind of a high priority target for mafia, as he was detrimental and not beneficial to town on day one. And I doubt any medics out there are trying to save random lurkers who they think might get sniped by vigis or 3rd parties.... that'd be insane.
No medic would protect you, and ignore great players like Curu, notasmurf and syllogism, people who have actively contributed in and out of the thread. It simply doesn't add up.
You see, I think one part is true, I think you did take a shot.
And I think you're afraid the vigi who shot it might point it out and come after you, so better claim it yourself.
Problem is, you didn't get saved, you're just immune to night hits, you see where I'm going with this? I think we can lower hostile KP's by one just by hanging you tonight.
Important
If you are the doctor who did indeed save RoL, you need to find a way to stop us from lynching him, as it's simply unreasonable to think he actually got saved at the moment.
Here's how you do that. You claim to the person you think is most pro-town in the thread, and he will then confirm in the thread that the Doctor has whispered to him and confirmed RoL did indeed get saved. Just go with your own instinct on finding a pro-town player.
The disclaimer is that any doc claims made by the Insane Inmates trio, will be ignored.
Conclusion
I think RebirthOfLeGenD is almost definitely third party. I think he did take a hit last night, and I think he's immune to night kills. I think he should hang.
Waiting for a Medic to prove me wrong, until then, my vote remains. You are advocating medic claims to defend me from a bad lynch? You are retarded.
people keep calling me retarded when I'm right 
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Palmar, is it a new trend of yours to just post ridiculous shit nonstop? First off let me preface this post by saying I am not third party, but I have put a considerable amount of thought into how the third party would act and how this influences the town/mafia status quo.
From a third party standpoint your entire goal is to kill the other third parties, everyone else is simply getting caught in the crossfire. Now who does that crossfire threaten? It threatens reds MUCH more than it threatens town.
See because essentially third party are searching for specific scummy players who are likely hiding as lurkers, and if not are just looking shady. This means the third parties targets are hiding among where mafia lurk, meaning each night there is basically +3 KP directed in the mafias direction. One example of that is the death of crjnina, our vigs missed, he was lurking and a third party took him out thinking he could of been lurking third party.
Now from a mafia stand point, you can't directly kill a third party. You have to get them lynched, meaning you have to get the town to do it, or let the third party situation resolve itself. The problem with letting it resolve itself is that you don't know how long it will take or how many of your own will die, so the natural alternative is to make it a town agenda to kill third parties.
So using that logic I wanted to see who was actively trying to push an anti third party agenda earlier in the game, and seeing which players when PMed would try to push third party as an inherently antitown existence. At the time I initially began using this the town was publicly talking about how the third party adds a lot of kill power that threatens to kill a TON of townies (IE: False reasoning)
So I used this to message people to see who would notice the obvious benefits of letting third party do its own thing. Generally I would approach them as "What do you perceive the third party threat to town as?" or something along these lines. Because a mafia would be thinking in a biased way on how to twist third party into something anti town.
For this I basically confirmed curu almost immediately, I believe in my 3rd or 4th PM I had a strong enough town read on him to just straight up tell him that I trusted him and explain what I was doing.
The biggest problem I saw with this was that morons would echo town sentiment of thirds being bad, and how to distinguish stupid people from scum. I got really busy later on, but the people who responded negatively that I remember off the top of my head were Amber[LighT] and Kavdragon. Kav explained that he hadn't put much thought into it however, which I am not sure if it clears him or not, but I felt it was important enough to note, along with him apparently reading town on redff.
On the topic of amber, he never posts enough to get an accurate read on imo and he isn't as active/good of a scum hunter as a previous post mentioned. I have some PM's with him, but he generally wasn't saying too much to read from.
So that is a bit of what I was doing day 1, and on top of being busy with real life stuff I fell behind on the thread, but I am going to make that up now. I feel the amount of information I have to work with is plentyful and I will come back with a few more suspects in a bit.
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I feel like the bandwagon for Nisani picked up steam very fast with very little reasons given. Can one of the people who just voted for him without giving a reason explain why they think he is the scummiest.
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On July 21 2011 23:36 deconduo wrote:
ROL is Joker, shot crjninja
Wiggles is Batman, shot me.
Youngmini is Raas Al Ghul, shot ROL
Mafia:
Mig killed notasmurf
VarysTheSpider killed syllogim
Other mafia killed curu
Curu killed Coag.
Justification:
Sad in kills denotes mafia kills.
ROL is 3rd party, no medic would save him. If he was vet, why lie.
Joker kill is clear, so either Raas or Batman shot ROL.
ROL is Joker, Batman shooting him would kill him so Raas shot him.
Clues:
Chest open indicates Mig, who has a picture of bender on his profile.
Joker uses Gasoline. Line from ROL's profile: 'Or does it explode?'
'Crow' bar, purposefully spaced. Feast of Crows -> everything on Varys' profile basically.
vigis and other townie KPs, plz take care of these.
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On July 22 2011 01:41 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote:
Palmar, is it a new trend of yours to just post ridiculous shit nonstop? First off let me preface this post by saying I am not third party, but I have put a considerable amount of thought into how the third party would act and how this influences the town/mafia status quo.
From a third party standpoint your entire goal is to kill the other third parties, everyone else is simply getting caught in the crossfire. Now who does that crossfire threaten? It threatens reds MUCH more than it threatens town.
See because essentially third party are searching for specific scummy players who are likely hiding as lurkers, and if not are just looking shady. This means the third parties targets are hiding among where mafia lurk, meaning each night there is basically +3 KP directed in the mafias direction. One example of that is the death of crjnina, our vigs missed, he was lurking and a third party took him out thinking he could of been lurking third party.
Now from a mafia stand point, you can't directly kill a third party. You have to get them lynched, meaning you have to get the town to do it, or let the third party situation resolve itself. The problem with letting it resolve itself is that you don't know how long it will take or how many of your own will die, so the natural alternative is to make it a town agenda to kill third parties.
So using that logic I wanted to see who was actively trying to push an anti third party agenda earlier in the game, and seeing which players when PMed would try to push third party as an inherently antitown existence. At the time I initially began using this the town was publicly talking about how the third party adds a lot of kill power that threatens to kill a TON of townies (IE: False reasoning)
So I used this to message people to see who would notice the obvious benefits of letting third party do its own thing. Generally I would approach them as "What do you perceive the third party threat to town as?" or something along these lines. Because a mafia would be thinking in a biased way on how to twist third party into something anti town.
For this I basically confirmed curu almost immediately, I believe in my 3rd or 4th PM I had a strong enough town read on him to just straight up tell him that I trusted him and explain what I was doing.
The biggest problem I saw with this was that morons would echo town sentiment of thirds being bad, and how to distinguish stupid people from scum. I got really busy later on, but the people who responded negatively that I remember off the top of my head were Amber[LighT] and Kavdragon. Kav explained that he hadn't put much thought into it however, which I am not sure if it clears him or not, but I felt it was important enough to note, along with him apparently reading town on redff.
On the topic of amber, he never posts enough to get an accurate read on imo and he isn't as active/good of a scum hunter as a previous post mentioned. I have some PM's with him, but he generally wasn't saying too much to read from.
So that is a bit of what I was doing day 1, and on top of being busy with real life stuff I fell behind on the thread, but I am going to make that up now. I feel the amount of information I have to work with is plentyful and I will come back with a few more suspects in a bit.
u mad?
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On July 22 2011 01:14 Palmar wrote:
yo scum.
we're not lynching a black because blacks take care of blacks. If he is the joker, the batman will hit him tonight and kill him anyway. Sure, we may lose one extra townie from joker's kill, but that's just collateral damage. Ra'as will also hit RoL because RoL could just as well be batman.
if RoL survives until tomorrow we'll have wasted batman's hit, the joker will have killed one townie, and we need to lynch rol, as that means he's Ra'as
So, stop discussing it, it makes no sense to kill RoL with a lynch, when he's a problem that will solve itself.
I'd much rather discuss potential lynch candidates.
Nisani201 is looking really bad, Pyo is still playing anti-town, Mr. Wiggles is possibly a problem, based on notasmurf's plan.
These are the people we should be focusing on, not RoL.
Hmmmm, so why is RoL third party becuse there's no way he'd attract a medic, but you give Deconduo an automatic bye?
As well, why ignore Mig in this post, calling me a problem, when he is also implicated?
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I guess I'll go look into mig when I get back from an interview. I feel like the third party side game can be solved night 2, so I'd rather do a little look-see at the clues which deconduo has brought to light and then see if we can shed light on some scum candidates. That's where real analysis will pick up.
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On July 22 2011 02:16 bumatlarge wrote:
I guess I'll go look into mig when I get back from an interview. I feel like the third party side game can be solved night 2, so I'd rather do a little look-see at the clues which deconduo has brought to light and then see if we can shed light on some scum candidates. That's where real analysis will pick up.
u better not ignore ladies while masturbating in the dining room
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On July 22 2011 02:18 Kurumi wrote:Show nested quote +On July 22 2011 02:16 bumatlarge wrote:
I guess I'll go look into mig when I get back from an interview. I feel like the third party side game can be solved night 2, so I'd rather do a little look-see at the clues which deconduo has brought to light and then see if we can shed light on some scum candidates. That's where real analysis will pick up. u better not ignore ladies while masturbating in the dining room
thats so good lol
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I wrote this up before RoL's big long post, but I'll post it anyway...
Can anyone who's played with Palmar before confirm that his excessively spammy style of play is not out of character? I don't get how you think you're being constructive in anyway shape or form. I'm reminded of the end of Closed (I didn't follow the whole game), this post in particular...
On July 09 2011 12:36 Ace wrote:Show nested quote +On July 09 2011 12:26 JeeJee wrote:![[image loading]](http://img691.imageshack.us/img691/2979/effdischiz.gif) If only I was better at this fucking game. Someone teach me how to convince people :< Well you made a solid case but Palmar just didn't read it objectively. Show nested quote +On July 09 2011 12:29 Palmar wrote:
could be. Really fucking sucks in that case how damn stupidly suspicious ILJ played the entire game. He messed up a few times but he wasn't that bad. Honestly the argument between you and VisceraEyes day 2 I think was REALLY bad. RebirthofLegend slipped up a lot of times in the midst of it and neither of you caught it. It was so bad that he made a post about Vigilantes and should have been brought up on it because it was honestly beyond stupid and Scummy when he said it. Luckily for the Town LSB and Fishball caught on to it because they were actually READING the thread and not tunneling everyone.
I don't get how you could possibly think I'm playing anti-town. Day 1, I was in a position where I had 3 choices:
- make up a random accusation that I didn't believe
- pick people who were already under FoS that I am suspicious of and go along with it
- tell the truth and say that I don't really know
This is like dumping a bucket of red paint on someone and calling them a Commie for wearing red. No matter what I say I come off being scummy. That isn't good scum-hunting since you're trapping a person into playing "scummy" no matter what.
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On July 22 2011 02:18 Kurumi wrote:Show nested quote +On July 22 2011 02:16 bumatlarge wrote:
I guess I'll go look into mig when I get back from an interview. I feel like the third party side game can be solved night 2, so I'd rather do a little look-see at the clues which deconduo has brought to light and then see if we can shed light on some scum candidates. That's where real analysis will pick up. u better not ignore ladies while masturbating in the dining room
What?...
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EPT
