EPTbut i don't think it's likely
i think we need to hear viscera's DT check *now*
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gtrsrs
United States9109 Posts
but i don't think it's likely i think we need to hear viscera's DT check *now* | ||
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syllogism
Finland5948 Posts
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Palmar
Iceland22632 Posts
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gtrsrs
United States9109 Posts
for some reason i thought we were on a new day derp yeah i think it's likely that viscera is faking it by not revealing varpulis' role, and only breadcrumbing that he was blue (in fact i think he only said "varpulis is innocent" which mafia would obviously know), he was able to let the mafia hit varpulis, and if varpulis flipped green he could have said something like "nice! i baited the mafia into hitting a green, my breadcrumbs worked!" so then we've got drazerk dropbear and in my eyes, 3 of the following sinani201 hiro protagonist viscera GMarshal or maybe sinani206 who is now supersoft. pretty solid list to work with. i feel like it might have come too easily though. if GMarshal was scum i doubt he'd let his team make mistakes like they're making. but at the same time he HAS claimed to be busy, so that would explain his lack of leadership. anyways i guess the right thing to do is lynch sinani/hiro today, shoot GMarshal tomorrow, and lynch viscera tomorrow, right? | ||
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gtrsrs
United States9109 Posts
On July 02 2011 05:20 Palmar wrote: I'm not cool with killing VE atm. agreed, i'd like to hear from some vets the chances that we got 3x detectives and 1x vigilante before i decide conclusively that viscera is a liar | ||
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Palmar
Iceland22632 Posts
On July 02 2011 05:20 gtrsrs wrote: oh yeah herp for some reason i thought we were on a new day derp yeah i think it's likely that viscera is faking it by not revealing varpulis' role, and only breadcrumbing that he was blue (in fact i think he only said "varpulis is innocent" which mafia would obviously know), he was able to let the mafia hit varpulis, and if varpulis flipped green he could have said something like "nice! i baited the mafia into hitting a green, my breadcrumbs worked!" so then we've got drazerk dropbear and in my eyes, 3 of the following sinani201 hiro protagonist viscera GMarshal or maybe sinani206 who is now supersoft. pretty solid list to work with. i feel like it might have come too easily though. if GMarshal was scum i doubt he'd let his team make mistakes like they're making. but at the same time he HAS claimed to be busy, so that would explain his lack of leadership. anyways i guess the right thing to do is lynch sinani/hiro today, shoot GMarshal tomorrow, and lynch viscera tomorrow, right? In any case VE would never out Varp's role until in the last 6 hours. it'd be retarded to tell the mafia he was a hatter. | ||
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Mr. Wiggles
Canada5894 Posts
Possibilities include: -3 DTs -Lack of Killing Roles (Observable so far) or maybe -3 DTs -Multiple Millers I don't think it's enough to lynch visc on just because there were two other detectives, especially in a set-up where there's the possibility of millers, as well as a seeming lack of town KP. I'd rather we just keep him on a short leash and see how he acts on Day 3. As well, visc, I'd like you to start actually contributing beyond being a possible detective. Make analysis, scum hunt, and actually contribute. Just talking about how you're the detective isn't contributing, and if I'm going to lynch you for anything, it will be for acting scummy, which hiding behind being a detective as an excuse to not contribute anything else is. I'm washing my car right now, but after that I'm going to look at Chaos' posts and see if he bread-crumbed any suspicions or called anyone out as being pro-town, etc. I'll let you guys know what I find. | ||
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Palmar
Iceland22632 Posts
On July 01 2011 01:45 chaos13 wrote: The people I am most suspicious of right now: youngminii - Started off Day 1 with random accusations less than an hour in, attempting to disrupt a pro-town atmosphere. He still hasn't convinced me he is town. I'd like to see explanations for posts like this one GMarshal - Started off Day 1 extremely pro-town, but has had some weird things going on at the end into the beginning of Day 2. This will easily be solved by a smart vigilante. We either have dead scum or confirmed vet syllogism - Giving me bad vibes, and there was something specific that I or someone else had earlier (if I didn't mention it, somebody else did and I made a mental note of it and forgot to actually record it). I'll see if I can find it tomorrow OpZ - For a veteran player he's not doing too well. Ended up on the lurker list and hasn't been pro-town by any stretch of the imagination. He would be an excellent lurker hit today imo. People I think are town sinani206 - I was rather suspicious of his posts to begin with, so I checked over them. I think it is far more likely that he is town than scum, he has had some that can be construed as anti-town, but I do not believe that was their intention. Palmar - Sure, there are some people who are suspicious of him, but all I can see is that it revolves around him being too pro-town. He has shown that he is charismatic and can be a good leader, and he has had many opportunities to use this to completely derail discussion, but has instead used it to focus discussion when it begins to get scattered or off-topic. Uncertain VisceraEyes - Could be DT, could be a major bus. However, if he returns Varpulis result as town and viscera is scum, he'll easily be counterclaimed. Varp, if he claims you are vanilla town and you are a blue role, wait until the last six hours to refute his claim. Lanaia - I had an early town read on (him/her?) because everything posted was consistently solid and pro-town. However, since then I haven't seen much content, and I am growing more suspicious. Cthsazsa - Similar case to Lanaia. I already made an admittedly weak case, and he shot it down with no problem. It was such a good case that I was convinced he was town. However, a lack of content since then has disturbed me. Vain - I have seen nothing really pro-town, so I'll be keeping a close eye on him. He's leaning more towards scummy than uncertain. Anyone else I have no real read on at the moment. The uncertain players I mentioned are simply the ones I have no read on that stand out to me. | ||
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Palmar
Iceland22632 Posts
Btw, if you check last night's lynch, he never even brings 206 up as an opportunity for lynching. He's only focusing on Draz and VE. | ||
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syllogism
Finland5948 Posts
What is the alternative method of dealing/confirming him then? Make him do the same check tomorrow? Mafia could kill proposed targets and giving him too much leeway would allow him checking another mafia. Moreover, the target would likely be VT. Unless we get lucky, I don't think we can trust him unless he gives us a red. | ||
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syllogism
Finland5948 Posts
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PaqMan
United States1475 Posts
+ Show Spoiler + On July 01 2011 01:45 chaos13 wrote: The people I am most suspicious of right now: youngminii - Started off Day 1 with random accusations less than an hour in, attempting to disrupt a pro-town atmosphere. He still hasn't convinced me he is town. I'd like to see explanations for posts like this one GMarshal - Started off Day 1 extremely pro-town, but has had some weird things going on at the end into the beginning of Day 2. This will easily be solved by a smart vigilante. We either have dead scum or confirmed vet syllogism - Giving me bad vibes, and there was something specific that I or someone else had earlier (if I didn't mention it, somebody else did and I made a mental note of it and forgot to actually record it). I'll see if I can find it tomorrow OpZ - For a veteran player he's not doing too well. Ended up on the lurker list and hasn't been pro-town by any stretch of the imagination. He would be an excellent lurker hit today imo. People I think are town sinani206 - I was rather suspicious of his posts to begin with, so I checked over them. I think it is far more likely that he is town than scum, he has had some that can be construed as anti-town, but I do not believe that was their intention. Palmar - Sure, there are some people who are suspicious of him, but all I can see is that it revolves around him being too pro-town. He has shown that he is charismatic and can be a good leader, and he has had many opportunities to use this to completely derail discussion, but has instead used it to focus discussion when it begins to get scattered or off-topic. Uncertain VisceraEyes - Could be DT, could be a major bus. However, if he returns Varpulis result as town and viscera is scum, he'll easily be counterclaimed. Varp, if he claims you are vanilla town and you are a blue role, wait until the last six hours to refute his claim. Lanaia - I had an early town read on (him/her?) because everything posted was consistently solid and pro-town. However, since then I haven't seen much content, and I am growing more suspicious. Cthsazsa - Similar case to Lanaia. I already made an admittedly weak case, and he shot it down with no problem. It was such a good case that I was convinced he was town. However, a lack of content since then has disturbed me. Vain - I have seen nothing really pro-town, so I'll be keeping a close eye on him. He's leaning more towards scummy than uncertain. Anyone else I have no real read on at the moment. The uncertain players I mentioned are simply the ones I have no read on that stand out to me. The bolded sentences are people I think Chaos checked before he died. After reading what he said about Sinani, it looks like a pretty obvious breadcrumb. I also bolded Syllo's name. I think it's pretty fucking obvious that Chaos wanted to check syllo, but he was shot before he could get the results. Hmm. Chaos has also been on YM's ass for quite a while now. He's raised some good points against Youngminii, and as I've had scummy feelings from YM I'm going to look into it. MOAR TO COME | ||
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PaqMan
United States1475 Posts
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syllogism
Finland5948 Posts
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Palmar
Iceland22632 Posts
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Palmar
Iceland22632 Posts
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syllogism
Finland5948 Posts
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Palmar
Iceland22632 Posts
On July 02 2011 05:55 syllogism wrote: If you read Chaos' later post, he wanted to get Varpulis or VE checked. I'm not sure what that implies because he had ample time to react to the results, assuming he didn't waste his check on someone else earlier. VE can also be GF who shows up as DT, which would explain the bus and the gambit. It's possible, but I think we're in pretty good shape with Youngminii and Sinani201 up for a lynch tonight. | ||
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Mr. Wiggles
Canada5894 Posts
On July 02 2011 05:39 syllogism wrote: Viscera checking Drazerk frankly doesn't make sense. Mafia not killing him immediately after day 2 post makes no sense. Do you know why? It's quite possible medics would either send in their PMs too late or still be stuck with their previous targets due to it lasting 36h. These could be explained by mafia being inept of course, but it just to the suspicion. What is the alternative method of dealing/confirming him then? Make him do the same check tomorrow? Mafia could kill proposed targets and giving him too much leeway would allow him checking another mafia. Moreover, the target would likely be VT. Unless we get lucky, I don't think we can trust him unless he gives us a red. Well, we could just get him to start playing like a normal DT, as in he checks whoever he wants, potentially out of a list agreed on by town (maybe not as it's open to scum influence), and then doesn't reveal his check, unless the person he checked is getting pushed for the lynch and are town, or he can reveal if he checks red. I'd still like to see analysis behind any checks though, innocent or guilty. There's still a GF kicking around, and there's the distinct possibility of millers. So, any action we take based on a check, should be backed up by analysis, especially if it was proposed by visc. So basically, he doesn't announce checks unless it's a town being pushed towards the lynch, or if he finds a red. Then, all checks should be taken with a large grain of salt and backed up by strong analysis before we act on them. Anyone jumping on a bandwagon, or acting like his checks are 100% fool-proof, are either playing bad or are mafia. It actually makes sense for mafia to keep him alive if he's DT, as it would be very easy to throw suspicion on him and push for his lynch. Mafia are playing from behind right now, and every mislynch helps them, especially if it's a blue, and until we can figure out a way to confirm him, we can't actually trust any of his checks, similar to the situation with GM right now. However, if he's mafia expect him to either just announce checks as innocent (which is what a townie would do too, no need to our potential blues), or to claim being RBed. That's why I'm asking him to contribute, because if he's mafia, it's easy to hide behind being the DT and not act pro-town in any other way, whereas a real townie would be eager to scum hunt, in addition to any checks. Blue roles don't win games, analysis does. | ||
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syllogism
Finland5948 Posts
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