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Alternately rookie44 is blue. Let's see: trying not to be noticed, yeah. Mafia or blue. Interested in what blues have to say, well, OK. Not really blue fishing - more interested in talking about the strategy for what our blues should be doing. That's my read on rookie44, a newbie blue.
I didn't want to out him cause if I'm right I painted a big, fat target on his back. But there's all of a sudden a bandwagon building on him, and with how spread out our votes are the mafia will be able to easily swing a lynch.
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I absolutely don't buy the "hunting for blues" nonsense on rookie44. I don't see at all how what he's been saying could lead to blues revealing themselves - one of the people voting for him should lay out the case a bit better.
On June 07 2011 06:01 Jackal58 wrote:Show nested quote +On June 07 2011 05:47 TranceStorm wrote:On June 07 2011 05:38 Jackal58 wrote:You guys want to vote for scum? Vote this guy - rookie44: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=9611408Has played before so he has an idea how it works. Very subtle in his fishing for blues. Only scum fish for blues. Wants to know what methods and tactics are used to catch scum. Wants us to share them with everybody. Claims it will help derail scum tactics. When it will obviously do the opposite. Has all but disappeared since this post. I'm sure he'll show up momentarily to tell me how full of shit I am. That's where my vote is going. I would recommend you all do the same. Would you mind doing a post-by-post analysis of rookie44's posts? (There are only 3) Right now I can't really see how subtly he is fishing for blues. After all, we don't know how experienced he really is, so I would like a little more clarification as to your accusation. We'll start with the post I linked: Show nested quote +On June 06 2011 04:22 rookie44 wrote: Hey guys,
This is all getting a bit out of hand, we seem to already be getting in each others faces over perceived (and real) sleights. I have only played mafia on battle.net, and this is going to be quite a different game to that. Only real difference is timing. Tactics are the same
What i believe is the crucial difference is that we have large amounts of time for discussion. This also gives us the time to create a solid plan for using whatever roles we have effectively (it would seem that way). This is role fishing. He's wanting people to post their roles and tell him how they intend to use them. At the very least he's hoping a noob would post something along the lines of I'm a DT. Who should I check
Maybe some of the more experienced players could expand on what investigative stratagies they have used; their pitfalls, and how we may evade those pitfalls. This is saying "I am scum. How are you guys going to catch me? It's called a scum slip
Perhaps an added benifit will be that it will be very tricky for a mafia to come up with a generalized stratagy that is grounded in reason, so maybe there will be some suspiciously quiet people. (I assume it will be difficult for a generalized stratagy becasue i can only see the mafia being able to take advantage of a specific stratagy by getting their peolpe in the right places). This is just bullshit trying to provide a townie reason for asking.
My analysis in red. This guy is scum. Point by point: 1. Irrelevant. And battle.net mafia is EXTREMELY different from this. 2. No, he isn't asking people to post their roles. He's asking what people think good strategy for blues would be - which is a reasonable question from town and even more sensible for a blue poster. 3. Alternately, he's honestly a newbie asking experienced players what they think we should be doing. 4. Or, he's giving his reason, as a townie, for asking.
The "analysis" is bullshit. This is bandwagonning at its WORST.
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On June 07 2011 08:56 Impervious wrote:Show nested quote +On June 07 2011 08:51 Treadmill wrote:I absolutely don't buy the "hunting for blues" nonsense on rookie44. I don't see at all how what he's been saying could lead to blues revealing themselves - one of the people voting for him should lay out the case a bit better. On June 07 2011 06:01 Jackal58 wrote:On June 07 2011 05:47 TranceStorm wrote:On June 07 2011 05:38 Jackal58 wrote:You guys want to vote for scum? Vote this guy - rookie44: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=9611408Has played before so he has an idea how it works. Very subtle in his fishing for blues. Only scum fish for blues. Wants to know what methods and tactics are used to catch scum. Wants us to share them with everybody. Claims it will help derail scum tactics. When it will obviously do the opposite. Has all but disappeared since this post. I'm sure he'll show up momentarily to tell me how full of shit I am. That's where my vote is going. I would recommend you all do the same. Would you mind doing a post-by-post analysis of rookie44's posts? (There are only 3) Right now I can't really see how subtly he is fishing for blues. After all, we don't know how experienced he really is, so I would like a little more clarification as to your accusation. We'll start with the post I linked: On June 06 2011 04:22 rookie44 wrote: Hey guys,
This is all getting a bit out of hand, we seem to already be getting in each others faces over perceived (and real) sleights. I have only played mafia on battle.net, and this is going to be quite a different game to that. Only real difference is timing. Tactics are the same
What i believe is the crucial difference is that we have large amounts of time for discussion. This also gives us the time to create a solid plan for using whatever roles we have effectively (it would seem that way). This is role fishing. He's wanting people to post their roles and tell him how they intend to use them. At the very least he's hoping a noob would post something along the lines of I'm a DT. Who should I check
Maybe some of the more experienced players could expand on what investigative stratagies they have used; their pitfalls, and how we may evade those pitfalls. This is saying "I am scum. How are you guys going to catch me? It's called a scum slip
Perhaps an added benifit will be that it will be very tricky for a mafia to come up with a generalized stratagy that is grounded in reason, so maybe there will be some suspiciously quiet people. (I assume it will be difficult for a generalized stratagy becasue i can only see the mafia being able to take advantage of a specific stratagy by getting their peolpe in the right places). This is just bullshit trying to provide a townie reason for asking.
My analysis in red. This guy is scum. Point by point: 1. Irrelevant. And battle.net mafia is EXTREMELY different from this. 2. No, he isn't asking people to post their roles. He's asking what people think good strategy for blues would be - which is a reasonable question from town and even more sensible for a blue poster. 3. Alternately, he's honestly a newbie asking experienced players what they think we should be doing. 4. Or, he's giving his reason, as a townie, for asking. The "analysis" is bullshit. This is bandwagonning at its WORST. If this was a day 2 or later lynch, I'd expect something more convincing. But it's not. If you have a better idea, I'd like to hear it.
Almost anyone else would be a better idea. I'm just bothered that wll of a sudden a bunch of people (xkcd, Kurumi, Senj) are jumping on voting for a guy, a handful of hours before the lynch. Especially considering: Senj is a lurker who's posted the bare minimum to be considered active amazingxkcd who's posted a whole lot of nothing - his only contributions have been posting one-liners about why other people's ideas are bad Kurumi - who's been posting a lot, and insanely aggressively, and accusing everyone flat-out of being scum, but when he decides who to vote for he posts a chort and uncertain post wihtout really explaining.
It just seems like the analysis is a lot worse on this case than it has been on a bunch of others - but a couple people started voting for him and set a bandwagon rolling.
As for scummiest posts, I still haven't seen anything to top this:
On June 06 2011 14:21 freeloader625 wrote:It's true. I spent most of the weekend watching MLG, both streams. I was keeping an eye on this for all mirror matches though, I just chose not to comment. Show nested quote +On June 06 2011 12:54 CjrNinja wrote:I can't confirm what the actual role PM said for mafia members. But looking back through this thread I did find: On May 30 2011 01:33 Varpulis wrote:On May 30 2011 00:34 blackone wrote:On May 29 2011 06:47 Meapak_Ziphh wrote: PMs PMs are not allowed in this game.
This confuses me because from the other Mafia threads I read I feel that PMs are a pretty important part of the game. In particular, how is the scum supposed to operate without PMs? To clarify: The no PMs rule does not apply to scum. They are still allowed to communicate outside of the thread. Town aligned and third party roles must keep everything inside the thread, however, for the sake of balance and to keep the game fun for everybody. So it's already been addressed during the signup stage. Freeloader was probably just lazy and didn't read through the entire thread. Yes, I'm ashamed to admit I let pages 2-8 or 9 go without reading it, I assumed it was all just full of "/in's." I only read the first post and posts since the game has officially started. Show nested quote +On June 06 2011 13:17 DeMorcerf wrote:On June 06 2011 12:47 Treadmill wrote:+ Show Spoiler +One really big point - if you're going to quote a really long post it'd be great if you could put it in spoiler tags (just a formatting issue but helps to clean up the page a fair bit). Meaning you, iGrok.
@CjrNinja Can you confirm that the role PM for mafia members spells out that mafia can communicate by PM? If this is true than obviously mafia wouldn't post that question and I'll change my vote from freeloader. Otherwise, though, he seems even more scummy to me now. I didn't vote for him cause he asked a silly question, it was how he replied to scrutiny. Since then, he hasn't posted in the thread at all. And I can confirm that he's been on TL - check his post history, he's posted a whole bunch in today's MLG live report. Either he's scum and waiting for suspicion to die down or he's town and has given up and resigned himself to getting lynched. Or he simply cannot extract himself from the excitement that is MLG, I know I couldn't for most of this weekend. I think that the reasoning that has come forth from some of the experienced players should convince us to leave freeloader for now and concentrate on others --- I agree with Alderan's suspicions of Amazingxkcd (posts that just repeat the description of the game) and Grush57 (confusing contradictions) and the strange hasty back and forth behavior of Jimboo pointed out by TranceStorm. On June 06 2011 11:43 redFF wrote:+ Show Spoiler +On June 06 2011 11:23 GMarshal wrote:Show nested quote +On June 06 2011 11:18 iGrok wrote:On June 06 2011 11:13 aprudds wrote:On June 06 2011 11:11 Meapak_Ziphh wrote:On June 06 2011 10:32 iGrok wrote:Mod Check Please I didn't catch it in time to see the original. I think flamewheel can see this sort of thing so I'll ask him. Because this is a noobies game I'll let you go with just a warning but the next time ANYONE does this they die, no exceptions. You've been warned I already reported it and the mod told me it was a typo fix. Lets get one thing clear here - do not Report anything to TL mods that isn't a direct violation of the TL Commandments (excluding spam - spam is legal here). We police ourselves, and only call in the authorities when we need them. Report to the Mod of your game, or Qatol if you have a problem with Mod. This. We self moderate. For the love of god, don't use the report button in this subforum. qft -___________- I quote this to point of that redFF's only post in the game is just this one-liner spam. Perhaps he is too busy in his other mafia game to contribute something more useful to his post, but then he should have waited until he had more time to post. Ohhh dirtay! I didn't not realize outside posts were fair game for this! I was under the impression (initially) that you can't click on ppls profiles/outside posts to avoid cheating or w/e. But I guess that's fair game. What do I honestly think and why haven't I really commented even though I threw myself under the bus? I'll give a longer explanation come closer to Day 1's end. Har har har, another "bad defensive" post by me :D Take it as you may.
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Sorry, EBWOP, that was @Impervious.
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Another interesting point: Jackal58 makes his case against rookie44, it's pretty weak, the people posting aren't convinced. Nobody but him votes for rookie44. Then an hour later
On June 07 2011 06:28 Kurumi wrote: ##unvote ##vote: Rookie44
On June 07 2011 06:29 Senj wrote: ##vote: Rookie44
[B]On June 07 2011 06:31 amazingxkcd wrote: ##VOTE: Rookie44 Look at the time stamps, within 3 minutes of each other. And none of them posted for 2 hours previous to bandwagonning rookie. It looks liek co-ordination.
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+ Show Spoiler +On June 07 2011 10:13 Impervious wrote: Ok, I thought it through looking at a variety of different situations, and I believe that we need to push for a lynch of one of those 3, rather than rookie.
Why? Because, it's likely that all 3 (or 2 of them) are mafia, based on the timing (and assuming that rookie is town and we have 2 or so vigis in the game).
When that one flips, here's the outcomes:
Scum - We get vigis to hit one or both of the others overnight. Early knockdown to 3KP for the mafia.
Town - We get a vigi to hit rookie as an insurance policy for switching (although we can argue the merit of this move overnight, and should rookie turn out to be red, Treadmill would be a decent policy lynch tomorrow because of how hard he's been defending).
So, if we're going to hit one of them, we need to pick the scummiest one, in case it's a freak accident that they all voted at the same time like that. And we've gotta do it quick (I'm gone in ~1 hr).
Basically, if we switch - in the worst case scenario we give our vigis a good target tonight, and best case, we hit 2 or 3 mafia. Pretty damn good first lynch/night imo.
Now, I asked myself "have they been acting in the best interest of the town?", and the one that really stood out as a "no" was xkcd, so I'd agree with a switch to him right now.
So, I'm changing my vote. ##Vote: amazingxkcd
I've been defending rookie really hard 'cause I think he's being railroaded and that the lynch of him is an attempt to distract. But okay, I agree with your logic - hit one of those three and see.
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@iGrok: we're talking about amazingxkcd, Kurumi, and Senj who all out of the blue voted for rookie44 at the same time.
I don;t think that jackal is scum, I think that he believes he has a case against rookie44.
I'm not totally convinced on those three but considering that there're are already suspicions about Kurumi and amazingxkcd and that Senj has been a lurker it looks really suspicious.
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On June 07 2011 10:35 Impervious wrote:Show nested quote +On June 07 2011 10:16 iGrok wrote:On June 07 2011 10:13 Impervious wrote: Ok, I thought it through looking at a variety of different situations, and I believe that we need to push for a lynch of one of those 3, rather than rookie.
Why? Because, it's likely that all 3 (or 2 of them) are mafia, based on the timing (and assuming that rookie is town and we have 2 or so vigis in the game).
When that one flips, here's the outcomes:
Scum - We get vigis to hit one or both of the others overnight. Early knockdown to 3KP for the mafia.
Town - We get a vigi to hit rookie as an insurance policy for switching (although we can argue the merit of this move overnight, and should rookie turn out to be red, Treadmill would be a decent policy lynch tomorrow because of how hard he's been defending).
So, if we're going to hit one of them, we need to pick the scummiest one, in case it's a freak accident that they all voted at the same time like that. And we've gotta do it quick (I'm gone in ~1 hr).
Basically, if we switch - in the worst case scenario we give our vigis a good target tonight, and best case, we hit 2 or 3 mafia. Pretty damn good first lynch/night imo.
Now, I asked myself "have they been acting in the best interest of the town?", and the one that really stood out as a "no" was xkcd, so I'd agree with a switch to him right now.
So, I'm changing my vote. ##Vote: amazingxkcd which 3? Show nested quote +On June 07 2011 09:35 Treadmill wrote:Another interesting point: Jackal58 makes his case against rookie44, it's pretty weak, the people posting aren't convinced. Nobody but him votes for rookie44. Then an hour later On June 07 2011 06:28 Kurumi wrote: ##unvote ##vote: Rookie44 On June 07 2011 06:29 Senj wrote: ##vote: Rookie44 On June 07 2011 06:31 amazingxkcd wrote: ##VOTE: Rookie44 Look at the time stamps, within 3 minutes of each other. And none of them posted for 2 hours previous to bandwagonning rookie. It looks liek co-ordination. I was in the middle of writing up something a little more in depth on why I chose xkcd, but my "1 hr" has turned into "5 minutes". I've switched my vote, and I hope some others do the same. It's not that I think rookie is a bad lynch, it's just that I think this lynch will give us more info, and if I'm wrong, we got rid of a really negative townie (which can end up derailing us in the later stages of the game). PS, if they all show up as town, as does Treadmill, then you guys HAVE to lynch me. Not doing so would be completely suicidal..... No. No, no, no. I'll let [b]Ver make this point for me:
Now, what if by some miracle, Youngminii was lynched and flipped green, or worse, vigilante? What would that have said about Foolishness? Think hard and carefully here, because this is a logic issue that really has plagued the town in so many TL games, especially this one. At its core is the question: what does "lynching for information" actually mean?
The lynch outcome alone would have said nothing about Foolishness! If Foolishness is veteran, how does he have any definite knowledge of what Youngminii is? He doesn't, therefore he can only do his best and try to figure out YM's role from the tools he has. That in itself does not distinguish him from Godfather Foolishness one bit. The key distinction between the two is to look at how he got Youngminii lynched and his overall play, not that he got Youngminii lynched. The latter fact, while not entirely irrelevant, is nowhere near sufficient enough on its own to warrant a lynch (and everyone knows if YM had popped up vigi Foolishness would've been autokilled the next day).
Thus it would be nonsensical to lynch YM because you think it will give the most information (the information is next to useless). The only reason to lynch YM, or virtually anyone ever, is to kill mafia. That's it.
Thats from his Mafia XXX Analysis, which is definitely worth a read.
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(That was in reference to Impervious' last comment, btw.)
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On June 07 2011 06:34 amazingxkcd wrote:Show nested quote +On June 07 2011 06:16 Alderan wrote:On June 07 2011 06:03 Jackal58 wrote:On June 07 2011 05:56 Alderan wrote:On June 07 2011 05:47 TranceStorm wrote:On June 07 2011 05:38 Jackal58 wrote:You guys want to vote for scum? Vote this guy - rookie44: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=9611408Has played before so he has an idea how it works. Very subtle in his fishing for blues. Only scum fish for blues. Wants to know what methods and tactics are used to catch scum. Wants us to share them with everybody. Claims it will help derail scum tactics. When it will obviously do the opposite. Has all but disappeared since this post. I'm sure he'll show up momentarily to tell me how full of shit I am. That's where my vote is going. I would recommend you all do the same. Would you mind doing a post-by-post analysis of rookie44's posts? (There are only 3) Right now I can't really see how subtly he is fishing for blues. After all, we don't know how experienced he really is, so I would like a little more clarification as to your accusation. Wait so you're saying instead of voting for new players being dumb you suggest us to vote for a player who has never played before on the forums (admittedly so) for suggesting that veteran players toss out potential strategies? Sure it's a LITTLE scummy, but until I see some elaboration on your "very subtle in fishing for blues" I'm going to have to disagree with you. You his scum buddy? Just pointing out that I think your analysis is just as weak or weaker than all the others. Let's see how he responds. You seem to be in a position to defend rookie44 when he has made quite a lot of scummy posts, particularly trying to take advantage of noobs to slip up their roles with Show nested quote +What i believe is the crucial difference is that we have large amounts of time for discussion. This also gives us the time to create a solid plan for using whatever roles we have effectively (it would seem that way). Also, notices how already from the start of the game, he is asking for roles and wanted to lynch Treadmill without any sound proof besides making a suggestion about the freeloader wagon being loaded with mafias Show nested quote +Would it be a legitimate stratagy if we lynched treadmill with the thought that he and some other mafia got overzealous with voting for freeloader? Here, he is making assumptions about what the mafia should do, which is trying to divert attention away from him. Show nested quote +It seems like if someone got a role in the mafia then they would be more anxious to start the game, and would be much more active in the very beginning. This is a mafia game for less experienced players so maybe that means there will be some metagame mistakes? for these reasons and the ones given by jackal58 as well as kurumi, i am voting for Rookie44 on the basis of clear scummy post and trying to divert attention away from himself with circular logic ##Vote: Rookie44also alderan, I am very suspicious of you for trying to defend this guy. Elaborate as to why you think he is not a scum.
And this, here, is amazingxkcd's analysis of rookie44. There's the line about "trying to divert attention away from himself" when rookie's post was waaay before there WAS any attention on him. Also, the point about "asking for roles" is bullshit - he was asking what we thought blues should do, which is very different.
Also, Alderan basically says "rookie seems little scummy but I'm not convinced" and xkcd starts attacking him. That and the co-ordinated timing of the votes (which is enough evidence by itself, for me), and earlier stuff posted by Alderan. Also this stupid rookie bandwagon. amazingxkcd looks very very red.
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2 mafia getting modkilled is nice, means they're down to 3 KP. On the other hand, we're probably out of medics. Which means the mafia gets to kill pretty much whoever they want.
Hey look! rookie44 was a blue! What a surprise! I'm gonna point out that I totally called that. But not to brag - if I saw it, someone in the mafia probably suspected him of being blue too. In fact it's a little more obvious to them cause they could rule out rookie being red. So i'm even more convinced that the mafia managed to swing that lynch.
I'm pretty comfortable saying that Senj, amazingxkcd, and Kurumi are mafia. To a more experienced player (iGrok or Vain preferably) what would you think of out vigi's shooting at them tonight? I'm maybe 80 or 90% sure, but I'd want someone with more experience to comment.
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Errm. Lafali just did something rather unfortunate, which would be to vote for Rookie44 after the end of the day, where he was modkilled and shown to be mafia:
On June 07 2011 13:18 Lafali wrote: ##Vote Rookie44
So sorry if I was late, I was out tonight.
which increases my suspicion that rookie's lynch was scum-motivated.
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On June 07 2011 13:49 iGrok wrote: Jackal's push to lynch rookie came out of fucking nowhere, and gathered way too much steam. I thought about reasons why he would do that, and one possible reason is that he was drawing attention from freeloader. I'm not certain of course, but it would be a good play, particularly if Jackal is the Godfather and was worried about losing KP due to inactivity & the lynch.
Oh, and I'm sure there are arrows missing, those are just the ones I could remember off the top of my head. I'm not convinced that Jackal is scum. He advocated for Rookie's lynch, yes, but all day one everyone was advocated to lynch a different person. What I suspect is that the mafia saw it and jumped on it as an opportunity, about an hour later:
On June 07 2011 09:35 Treadmill wrote:Another interesting point: Jackal58 makes his case against rookie44, it's pretty weak, the people posting aren't convinced. Nobody but him votes for rookie44. Then an hour later Look at the time stamps, within 3 minutes of each other. And none of them posted for 2 hours previous to bandwagonning rookie. It looks liek co-ordination. when [b]Senj, amazingxkcd, and Kurumi all vote for rookie at the same time. It's the main reason I think all three are scum.
On June 07 2011 14:00 iGrok wrote: One thing I notice now is that Treadmill has the most arrows. Treadmill, you are an interesting person...
Everything he's done has been in the right. Everything. When it was unpopular, he stood by his ideas. He's defended those he felt were wrongly accused, and and accused those he felt were guilty.
IMO, Treadmill is Town. Aww, <3.
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On June 07 2011 14:24 GGQ wrote:Show nested quote +On June 07 2011 14:18 Treadmill wrote:On June 07 2011 13:49 iGrok wrote: Jackal's push to lynch rookie came out of fucking nowhere, and gathered way too much steam. I thought about reasons why he would do that, and one possible reason is that he was drawing attention from freeloader. I'm not certain of course, but it would be a good play, particularly if Jackal is the Godfather and was worried about losing KP due to inactivity & the lynch.
Oh, and I'm sure there are arrows missing, those are just the ones I could remember off the top of my head. I'm not convinced that Jackal is scum. He advocated for Rookie's lynch, yes, but all day one everyone was advocated to lynch a different person. What I suspect is that the mafia saw it and jumped on it as an opportunity, about an hour later: On June 07 2011 09:35 Treadmill wrote:Another interesting point: Jackal58 makes his case against rookie44, it's pretty weak, the people posting aren't convinced. Nobody but him votes for rookie44. Then an hour later On June 07 2011 06:28 Kurumi wrote: ##unvote ##vote: Rookie44 On June 07 2011 06:29 Senj wrote: ##vote: Rookie44 On June 07 2011 06:31 amazingxkcd wrote: ##VOTE: Rookie44 Look at the time stamps, within 3 minutes of each other. And none of them posted for 2 hours previous to bandwagonning rookie. It looks liek co-ordination. when [b]Senj, amazingxkcd, and Kurumi all vote for rookie at the same time. It's the main reason I think all three are scum. On June 07 2011 14:00 iGrok wrote: One thing I notice now is that Treadmill has the most arrows. Treadmill, you are an interesting person...
Everything he's done has been in the right. Everything. When it was unpopular, he stood by his ideas. He's defended those he felt were wrongly accused, and and accused those he felt were guilty.
IMO, Treadmill is Town. Aww, <3. You haven't addressed what I said about Kurumi attack lafali almost immediately in the day. Why would he do that if they are both mafia? You're right, sorry, I meant to address that one - it is the sticking point. I can see a mafia player accusing other mafia just to screw with people's heads, though, and Kumuri does seem to be likely to play like that. Also, he voted for Lafali, mentioned him once, and then started attacking everyone else. It would've been interesting to see what Kurumi would've done had Lafali ever been in any danger at all of being lynched but he wasn't, so voting for him remained "safe".
It's one piece of evidence for him compared to quite a bit against (see iGrok's massive post). I'm most comfortable on amazingxkcd but I do think we should watch Kurumi to see how he posts. I don't think a DT would be that helpful at this point, cause assuming that a more experienced player was chosen as GF its probably Kurumi (or maybe gtsrs but I'm only suspicious of him, there's adecent chance he's town).
In short, yes Kurumi voted for Lafali but considering his playstyle he seems likely to screw with us like that were he mafia. Also Lafali was never indanger of being lynched.
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Only two kills? What the hey? If someone took a hit last night let us know. I don't see them stacking KP when two medics died yesterday, and similarily I don't see anyone surviving a hit.
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@Impervious: *first game ever for me *read Ver's mafia XXX analysis and that game quite a bit *looked at a couple other games but not much - mostly PYP/PTP games
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I've just gone over the post history of GGQ's and DeMorcerf's to try to figure out why they were targeted by the mafia.
The overall theme with those two is that they weren't at the front of the arguing - they offered their unadorned opinions, and they looked into players on their own, but they never pushed hard for anyone's lynch or innocence. On reflection they were likely blues - which is probably the reason they were targeted. Luckily for us, neither of them were blue.
DeMorcerf's posts are primarily a defence of iGrok and support for his supicion of Drazerk. He also has a couple posts asking questions to the mods, and a number more criticizing lousy arguments and generally appealing for less haste. He also pointed out tdAdonis' lurking He voted Drazerk.
GGQ had a fair bit more posts, but like DeMorcerf he didn't get into any big arguments or do a lot of analysis. He also largely criticized lousy arguments and pointed out their holes. He was one of the first people to be suspicious of amazingxkcd and he was also supicious of Drazerk, Jimbooo, and Vain. He voted for Jimbooo.
*He also posted an argument about iGrok but too late for it to have affected the mafias choices (like 1 min before the night 1 post).
Because I think that they were hit cause they seemed blue, I don't think its worth reading too much into their posts. This might be helpful to someone else so I'm gonna post it anyways. But, please, don't say that [eg] "Jimbooo is scum cause GGQ accused him and got killed". I'm pretty confidant that they were hit for being suspected blues. If the mafia wanted to protect themselves/cause chaos/whatever, there are more obvious targets for them.
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On June 08 2011 13:26 Pyo wrote: Yay!!! I'm alive - wasn't expecting that. Too bad about GGQ, I guess they wanted to take out experienced town. The other hit has me surprised. I'll have to go through his posts and try to figure it out.
So they hit our vet? Or we have another medic who happened to protect the right person. I disagree with Treadmill. If you were medic saved or vet, DO NOT SAY ANYTHING!!!! Keep them guessing whether you are the vet or whether we have a third medic. Town doesn't need to know that information only mafia would want you to reveal yourself. Treadmill just outed himself as scum.
Bullshit. The mafia already know who the third target was. That person coming forward doesn't say anything about whether he was saved by being a vet or by a medic (in fact, its a good point, Pyo, to emphasize that whoever got shot shouldn't say anything on the matter). I just think town knowing what the mafia knows is a good thing.
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it's day 2 we get a lynch and I think we've got an obvious target amazingxkcd
A few others and I already suspected amazingxkcd of being mafia yesterday. The case certainly wasn't perfect, but there was enough for six of us to vote for him and a number of others to be suspicious.
And so I took the time today and went and had a look. That's right, it's analysis time. Here's what I found, with all 31 of xkcd's posts:
POST NUMBER ONE
On June 06 2011 02:56 amazingxkcd wrote: It is quite clear that it can be seen who are the main talkers for both side. The only question is now how to distinguish between the two sides and how to act upon it The first thing to notice is that xkcd isn't naming names. Instead he begins with the more vague "It is quite clear". A number of themes emerge from reading xkcd's posts and the first is that he is very wishy-washy. He avoids naming other players quite a bit and also avoids directly giving an opinion on the action.
This post simply doesn't say anything. "The only question" that he gives is basically a restatement of the premise of the game.
+ Show Spoiler +As a short aside, as Alderan pointed out this first post comes just after TheAwesomeAll posts a list of inactives. Alderan thought this was fairly important, but I'd tend to disagree - a townie would want to avoid being modkilled as much as scum would. I don't count this as evidence for or against xkcd.
POST NUMBER TWO
On June 06 2011 03:38 amazingxkcd wrote:Show nested quote +On June 06 2011 03:21 Alderan wrote:On June 06 2011 02:56 amazingxkcd wrote: It is quite clear that it can be seen who are the main talkers for both side. The only question is now how to distinguish between the two sides and how to act upon it It is posts like this (especially for your first post) that we are trying to avoid. All you did in this post was state the premise of the game, and make a likely incorrect assumption that there are mafia among the "main talkers" this early in the game. Very very scummy post. interesting first post there, all ready trying to set up accustation upon me for supposedly making a scummy post when in reality i am only simply making observation. You already got into my list of suspicious people by derailing a innocent first post when we still have around 30+ hours left to figure out each other. Alderan very quickly calls out xkcd for making a useless post. xkcd responds with... another useless post. Once again xkcd doesn't comment on any of the happenings in th thread, he doesn't engage with any of the other conversations that having been started. Instead he immediately gets defensive about Alderan's fairly benign accusation. Here we see the beginnings of another theme for xkcd - ignoring the content of other peoples accusations, and "straw-mannning" their arguments. This becomes more clearly a theme later.
I also want to point out the phrasing "interesting first post". You see, I have friends in community theatre. I have to go see their shows. Sometimes they suck. When they do, and I'm asked what I think, I say "interesting". Its a delightfully wishy-washy word. Perfect, in this instance, for calling somebody scummy without actually calling them scummy. Not in the least damning, but it fits the theme.
POST NUMBER THREE
On June 06 2011 04:16 amazingxkcd wrote:Show nested quote +On June 06 2011 04:12 grush57 wrote: Im not inactive, I just dont feel like anybody can accuse this early. But why did you vote for someone already? You provide no evidence, no stance, and your first post is stating something that can be interpreted as quite misleading. Post number three and xkcd still hasn't given an opinion on anything. He makes a fairly obvious comment on grush57 and never revisits it.
POST NUMBER FOUR
On June 06 2011 04:28 amazingxkcd wrote:Show nested quote +On June 06 2011 04:22 rookie44 wrote: Hey guys,
This is all getting a bit out of hand, we seem to already be getting in each others faces over perceived (and real) sleights. I have only played mafia on battle.net, and this is going to be quite a different game to that.
What i believe is the crucial difference is that we have large amounts of time for discussion. This also gives us the time to create a solid plan for using whatever roles we have effectively (it would seem that way).
Maybe some of the more experienced players could expand on what investigative stratagies they have used; their pitfalls, and how we may evade those pitfalls.
Perhaps an added benifit will be that it will be very tricky for a mafia to come up with a generalized stratagy that is grounded in reason, so maybe there will be some suspiciously quiet people. (I assume it will be difficult for a generalized stratagy becasue i can only see the mafia being able to take advantage of a specific stratagy by getting their peolpe in the right places).
Please refer to these guides on playing TL mafia. For town: aidnai, GMarshalFor mafia: bumatlarge, chaos13 LSB's Newbie GuideMafiascum Newbie GuideIntroduction to Mafia (Flash)Ver's town guideAce's Mafia ManifestoQatol's Town Guide Hey look! xkcd read the OP! Fourth post, and still nothing of substance. The only point to make here is that xkcd is apparently following the thread reasonably well, enough to provide a somewhat useful response to [blue]rookie44[blue]'s question.
POST NUMBER FIVE
On June 06 2011 22:52 amazingxkcd wrote:Show nested quote +On June 06 2011 21:57 iGrok wrote: Hey Jackal, good to see you again. Mind going over my Kurumi analysis? As his post concerning kurumi 's behavior had helped, i am concerned with this statement. iGrok has listed a couple of seasoned players whom he reconizes for their experiences, but here he is already jumping to the conclusion that he had no reason to suspect them, especially jackal whom only made a post spectulating. It seems to be that iGrok is quite convinced that kurumi is a scum as he already asked for a dt check rather than trust the dts to make the right decisions. About jackal, i do not know much about him as he has not stated a lot yet, but iGrok is showing us that he is in league with jackal as from the podt above. As of now, i do not want to label iGrok as scum, and i'd rather wait until later to see what jackal says and how the game flows, but iGrok is still suspicious. If iGrok is convicted as scum, then that puts pressure on jackal to respond. We've reached his fifth post, and at last xkcd has given his opinion on something.... sort of. Well, he seems to be saying that iGrok and Jackal are somehow in league with one another. And are scum. Because if they were both mafia, iGrok would obviously ask for Jackal's opinion... in the thread. Its not exactly great thinking.
He's still incredibly wishy-washy about it. Also, for the most part his post still doesn't really say anything - the second paragraph is entirely without content, and his fourth casting aspersions without making accusations. Again there is that odd wording - "iGrok is still suspicious" rather than the more direct "I am suspicious of iGrok".
POST NUMBER SIX
On June 07 2011 00:15 amazingxkcd wrote:Show nested quote +On June 06 2011 10:47 Alderan wrote:Here's a list of a couple people who seem to be acting a little scummy. (Not saying for sure scum, just people that might not be) Lets get some meaningful conversation going. AmazingxkcdI've already kind of voiced this opinion but I'm going to expound upon my earlier analysis. Let's look at his posts. It is quite clear that it can be seen who are the main talkers for both side. The only question is now how to distinguish between the two sides and how to act upon it
This post, obviously vague, of little help to the town, and posted directly after he appeared on TheAwesomeAll's “Lurker List”. When I pointed out this was a fishy post he responded with this: interesting first post there, all ready trying to set up accustation upon me for supposedly making a scummy post when in reality i am only simply making observation. You already got into my list of suspicious people by derailing a innocent first post when we still have around 30+ hours left to figure out each other.
Obviously immediately went on the defensive, turned and pointed a finger at me, and suggest that the town take its time “figuring each other out” instead of having discussion that is inherently pro-town. In fact his only “contribution” to town discussion was this post:
Please refer to these guides on playing TL mafia.
For town: aidnai, GMarshal
For mafia: bumatlarge, chaos13
LSB's Newbie Guide Mafiascum Newbie Guide Introduction to Mafia (Flash) Ver's town guide Ace's Mafia Manifesto Qatol's Town Guide
So his only contribution to the town is copying and pasting something that is in the third post of this thread? Interesting. Show nested quote +On June 06 2011 23:10 Alderan wrote: Also, I'm going to ahead and voting for amazingxkcd, just in case something happens to me at work today and I won't be able to get a vote in.
@ amazingkcd, I'm really just waiting on you to refute the analysis I did earlier.
You are discriminating against me and you just voted for me right now just off the basis of my first post, which i made after i finished watching MLG. You do not provide evidence that i am a scum nor do you back it up should you have given any evidence. It seems that you want me to be lynched when i am trying to win for the town. @iGrok and @Jackal58; I can't analyze Kurumi either, since i take that he's acting as if he has multiple personalities disorder. He should be watched for sure. Also, @Jackal58, you stated that he had the same behavior in the previous games you played with him, what were his roles? That should at least help to give us a direction on him. I am not trying to label you two as complete scum, but i was just concerned about iGrok's request for help from Jackal58. About freeloader, I am currently leaning towards the scummy side as for the reasons others have put up front already, but i need more time to see if i do want to lynch him. There are others here who seem suspicious based on their posts and the tone of their post, but i am not ready right now to make a final desicion. I really love the line
You do not provide evidence that i am a scum nor do you back it up should you have given any evidence "You don't have any proof... and even if you had proof your proof isn't any good!" It's kinda lol.
In fact the wording of his defence (the first paragraph) is very strange. "You are discriminating against me". Yes, Alderan is racist against amazing people. Or something. Also I wonder why he felt the need to add "i am trying to win for the town" at the end. All in all he gets very defensive here, without really having anything to say in his defence.
In the rest of this post he finally responds to some of the other discussions that are happening in the thread. By which I mean he finds a fancy way of saying that he doesn;t have an opinion on anything. He says that freeloader is "leaning towards the scummy side". And calls others "suspicious based on their posts and the tone of their post" but doesn't give any names (as in his first post).
Then we come to Kurumi (or, perhaps, Kurumi). xkcd has an interesting relationship with Kurumi. There'll be more detail on that down the line - for now, xkcd mentions specifically that Kurumi is difficult to analyze, and is acting kinda crazy.
There are two other sentences that stand out, "I can't analyze Kurumi either" - didn't iGrok just do a massive piece of analysis on Kurumi and come out leaning scum? Also, "I am not trying to label you two as complete scum" - are there degrees of scum?
POST NUMBER SEVEN
On June 07 2011 00:20 amazingxkcd wrote:Show nested quote +On June 07 2011 00:17 Xedat wrote: Kursiv are the guys that voted but then unvoted and have not voted again.
Non voters: 1. Munk-E 2. blackone 4. amazingxkcd 11. Jimbooo 13. Lafali 16. Heist 20. TheAwesomeAll 24. grush57 25. Date_Reaper 26. CjrNinja 28. Senj 29. DeMorcerf 30. Vain 32. Jackal58 33. Clicker 37. iGrok 38. tdAdonis 39. aprudds 40. GGQ
Are you trying to say that this list are people who attempted to vote yet, cause the wording of your statement is quite ambiguous. I will vote when i have determined who is the most likely candidate, but i have never voted yet from what i have understood your post as. A post that again says nothing.
POST NUMBER EIGHT
On June 07 2011 00:21 amazingxkcd wrote:Show nested quote +On June 07 2011 00:19 Jackal58 wrote:On June 07 2011 00:15 amazingxkcd wrote:On June 06 2011 10:47 Alderan wrote:Here's a list of a couple people who seem to be acting a little scummy. (Not saying for sure scum, just people that might not be) Lets get some meaningful conversation going. AmazingxkcdI've already kind of voiced this opinion but I'm going to expound upon my earlier analysis. Let's look at his posts. It is quite clear that it can be seen who are the main talkers for both side. The only question is now how to distinguish between the two sides and how to act upon it
This post, obviously vague, of little help to the town, and posted directly after he appeared on TheAwesomeAll's “Lurker List”. When I pointed out this was a fishy post he responded with this: interesting first post there, all ready trying to set up accustation upon me for supposedly making a scummy post when in reality i am only simply making observation. You already got into my list of suspicious people by derailing a innocent first post when we still have around 30+ hours left to figure out each other.
Obviously immediately went on the defensive, turned and pointed a finger at me, and suggest that the town take its time “figuring each other out” instead of having discussion that is inherently pro-town. In fact his only “contribution” to town discussion was this post:
Please refer to these guides on playing TL mafia.
For town: aidnai, GMarshal
For mafia: bumatlarge, chaos13
LSB's Newbie Guide Mafiascum Newbie Guide Introduction to Mafia (Flash) Ver's town guide Ace's Mafia Manifesto Qatol's Town Guide
So his only contribution to the town is copying and pasting something that is in the third post of this thread? Interesting. On June 06 2011 23:10 Alderan wrote: Also, I'm going to ahead and voting for amazingxkcd, just in case something happens to me at work today and I won't be able to get a vote in.
@ amazingkcd, I'm really just waiting on you to refute the analysis I did earlier.
You are discriminating against me and you just voted for me right now just off the basis of my first post, which i made after i finished watching MLG. You do not provide evidence that i am a scum nor do you back it up should you have given any evidence. It seems that you want me to be lynched when i am trying to win for the town. @iGrok and @Jackal58; I can't analyze Kurumi either, since i take that he's acting as if he has multiple personalities disorder. He should be watched for sure. Also, @Jackal58, you stated that he had the same behavior in the previous games you played with him, what were his roles? That should at least help to give us a direction on him. I am not trying to label you two as complete scum, but i was just concerned about iGrok's request for help from Jackal58. About freeloader, I am currently leaning towards the scummy side as for the reasons others have put up front already, but i need more time to see if i do want to lynch him. There are others here who seem suspicious based on their posts and the tone of their post, but i am not ready right now to make a final desicion. Kurumi was town in XXXIX. Lynched day one for posting nonsensically for the first half of the day. He has improved significantly from that game believe it or not. He is also still playing in PTP mafia and is a self proclaimed SK. Thank you for your clarification. Another contentless post. A more notable lack of content, actually - xkcd specifcally asked what Kurumi's role had been to help town figure Kurumi out. He finds the answer to his question.... and draws no inferences from it. Considers the consequences not one bit. So why was he asking?
POST NUMBER NINE
On June 07 2011 03:06 amazingxkcd wrote:Show nested quote +On June 07 2011 02:53 iGrok wrote:On June 07 2011 02:43 Vain wrote:On June 07 2011 02:31 iGrok wrote:On June 07 2011 02:11 Vain wrote: Ok, i finally finished reading. Man, sleeping is bad for keeping up with a mafia game.
First off: Kurumi is probably town if he also spammed this much in a previous game where he was scum. I don't know his style very good but he is drawing way too much attention to be a comfortable mafia.
I don't quite understand this. So Kurumi is probably town because he's acting the same way he did when he was mafia before? Euh, i meant town. Jackal stated that when he was town he's just as hard to analyze. Iirc he was not scum the other games Jackal played with him. + Show Spoiler +On June 07 2011 00:19 Jackal58 wrote:Show nested quote +On June 07 2011 00:15 amazingxkcd wrote:On June 06 2011 10:47 Alderan wrote:Here's a list of a couple people who seem to be acting a little scummy. (Not saying for sure scum, just people that might not be) Lets get some meaningful conversation going. AmazingxkcdI've already kind of voiced this opinion but I'm going to expound upon my earlier analysis. Let's look at his posts. It is quite clear that it can be seen who are the main talkers for both side. The only question is now how to distinguish between the two sides and how to act upon it
This post, obviously vague, of little help to the town, and posted directly after he appeared on TheAwesomeAll's “Lurker List”. When I pointed out this was a fishy post he responded with this: interesting first post there, all ready trying to set up accustation upon me for supposedly making a scummy post when in reality i am only simply making observation. You already got into my list of suspicious people by derailing a innocent first post when we still have around 30+ hours left to figure out each other.
Obviously immediately went on the defensive, turned and pointed a finger at me, and suggest that the town take its time “figuring each other out” instead of having discussion that is inherently pro-town. In fact his only “contribution” to town discussion was this post:
Please refer to these guides on playing TL mafia.
For town: aidnai, GMarshal
For mafia: bumatlarge, chaos13
LSB's Newbie Guide Mafiascum Newbie Guide Introduction to Mafia (Flash) Ver's town guide Ace's Mafia Manifesto Qatol's Town Guide
So his only contribution to the town is copying and pasting something that is in the third post of this thread? Interesting. On June 06 2011 23:10 Alderan wrote: Also, I'm going to ahead and voting for amazingxkcd, just in case something happens to me at work today and I won't be able to get a vote in.
@ amazingkcd, I'm really just waiting on you to refute the analysis I did earlier.
You are discriminating against me and you just voted for me right now just off the basis of my first post, which i made after i finished watching MLG. You do not provide evidence that i am a scum nor do you back it up should you have given any evidence. It seems that you want me to be lynched when i am trying to win for the town. @iGrok and @Jackal58; I can't analyze Kurumi either, since i take that he's acting as if he has multiple personalities disorder. He should be watched for sure. Also, @Jackal58, you stated that he had the same behavior in the previous games you played with him, what were his roles? That should at least help to give us a direction on him. I am not trying to label you two as complete scum, but i was just concerned about iGrok's request for help from Jackal58. About freeloader, I am currently leaning towards the scummy side as for the reasons others have put up front already, but i need more time to see if i do want to lynch him. There are others here who seem suspicious based on their posts and the tone of their post, but i am not ready right now to make a final desicion. Kurumi was town in XXXIX. Lynched day one for posting nonsensically for the first half of the day. He has improved significantly from that game believe it or not. He is also still playing in PTP mafia and is a self proclaimed SK. Ok, yeah that makes a lot more sense. Yeah, I'm starting to see how Kurumi could be a townie, but I could also see him as a scum who felt the pressure and is trying to change his tune. I still don't thing he should be lynched today. I'm trying to think of who should be, but I really don't know :/ Think of this as so: Kurumi asked for a DT check on himself, so he knows that he is going to be clean from the rolecheck. This means two things 1. He is a townie and his behavior is just the same as the one that jackal's game with him was or 2. He is the godfather and he's trying to mindfuck us since gf comes clean through DT check. You are right that his behavior cannot be analyzed at all, but why is he so adament that we check him? Could it be that he wants us to forget about him when his check comes clean and then he is free to do whatever he wants? Remember, he has mislead many people with his ramblings, so judge wisely. We're back to the saga of xkcd and Kurumi. First off is the instant inference that "he knows that he is going to be clean from the rolecheck". Now, iGrok had just made a big, long post calling for a DT on Kurumi. Kurumi turns around and welcomes it. xkcd's two points are two possible cases, or
3. Kurumi is scum, panicking, and hoping that people will only consider case 1 and case 2. Or is relying on how unreliable DT checks are (miller, godfather framer, and besides how do we know who the bloody DTs are anyways).
A case that xkcd misses out on, intentionally or unintentionally. This'll matter later, kids.
He also brings up this notion that "his behavior cannot be analyzed at all" which is antithetical to the game. Kurumi may be difficult to analyze but not impossible.
Minor quibbles, true, but what does he really say? To paraphrase: "Kurumi my be mafia or he may be town, there's no way to tell". Which is a great way of saying nothing.
His sign-off is interesting though.
so judge wisely. xkcd's learned a new trick! One that he uses extensively in posts to come. Judge wisely! xkcd sure as hell isn't gonna have an opinion, those are hard! It's all up to you guys! From here on xkcd starts explicitly putting the onus on making decisions on everyone else, and not himself.
POST NUMBER TEN
On June 07 2011 03:23 amazingxkcd wrote:Show nested quote +On June 07 2011 03:08 iGrok wrote:On June 07 2011 02:56 Alderan wrote:On June 07 2011 02:53 iGrok wrote:On June 07 2011 02:43 Vain wrote:On June 07 2011 02:31 iGrok wrote:On June 07 2011 02:11 Vain wrote: Ok, i finally finished reading. Man, sleeping is bad for keeping up with a mafia game.
First off: Kurumi is probably town if he also spammed this much in a previous game where he was scum. I don't know his style very good but he is drawing way too much attention to be a comfortable mafia.
I don't quite understand this. So Kurumi is probably town because he's acting the same way he did when he was mafia before? Euh, i meant town. Jackal stated that when he was town he's just as hard to analyze. Iirc he was not scum the other games Jackal played with him. + Show Spoiler +On June 07 2011 00:19 Jackal58 wrote:Show nested quote +On June 07 2011 00:15 amazingxkcd wrote:On June 06 2011 10:47 Alderan wrote:Here's a list of a couple people who seem to be acting a little scummy. (Not saying for sure scum, just people that might not be) Lets get some meaningful conversation going. AmazingxkcdI've already kind of voiced this opinion but I'm going to expound upon my earlier analysis. Let's look at his posts. It is quite clear that it can be seen who are the main talkers for both side. The only question is now how to distinguish between the two sides and how to act upon it
This post, obviously vague, of little help to the town, and posted directly after he appeared on TheAwesomeAll's “Lurker List”. When I pointed out this was a fishy post he responded with this: interesting first post there, all ready trying to set up accustation upon me for supposedly making a scummy post when in reality i am only simply making observation. You already got into my list of suspicious people by derailing a innocent first post when we still have around 30+ hours left to figure out each other.
Obviously immediately went on the defensive, turned and pointed a finger at me, and suggest that the town take its time “figuring each other out” instead of having discussion that is inherently pro-town. In fact his only “contribution” to town discussion was this post:
Please refer to these guides on playing TL mafia.
For town: aidnai, GMarshal
For mafia: bumatlarge, chaos13
LSB's Newbie Guide Mafiascum Newbie Guide Introduction to Mafia (Flash) Ver's town guide Ace's Mafia Manifesto Qatol's Town Guide
So his only contribution to the town is copying and pasting something that is in the third post of this thread? Interesting. On June 06 2011 23:10 Alderan wrote: Also, I'm going to ahead and voting for amazingxkcd, just in case something happens to me at work today and I won't be able to get a vote in.
@ amazingkcd, I'm really just waiting on you to refute the analysis I did earlier.
You are discriminating against me and you just voted for me right now just off the basis of my first post, which i made after i finished watching MLG. You do not provide evidence that i am a scum nor do you back it up should you have given any evidence. It seems that you want me to be lynched when i am trying to win for the town. @iGrok and @Jackal58; I can't analyze Kurumi either, since i take that he's acting as if he has multiple personalities disorder. He should be watched for sure. Also, @Jackal58, you stated that he had the same behavior in the previous games you played with him, what were his roles? That should at least help to give us a direction on him. I am not trying to label you two as complete scum, but i was just concerned about iGrok's request for help from Jackal58. About freeloader, I am currently leaning towards the scummy side as for the reasons others have put up front already, but i need more time to see if i do want to lynch him. There are others here who seem suspicious based on their posts and the tone of their post, but i am not ready right now to make a final desicion. Kurumi was town in XXXIX. Lynched day one for posting nonsensically for the first half of the day. He has improved significantly from that game believe it or not. He is also still playing in PTP mafia and is a self proclaimed SK. Ok, yeah that makes a lot more sense. Yeah, I'm starting to see how Kurumi could be a townie, but I could also see him as a scum who felt the pressure and is trying to change his tune. I still don't thing he should be lynched today. I'm trying to think of who should be, but I really don't know :/ But you agree that it shouldn't be freeloader? Yeah. Here's my "Don't Lynch" list (in no particular order): Me ^^ Jackal58 Vain GGQ Kurumi Treadmill 35spike1 CrJninja Xedat aprudds Actually, looking back, I'm going to put my vote on Drazerk, for twice voting without saying shit. (He might've posted once or twice, but absolutely no substance, only bandwagonning). It is intrresting that you list everyone who did not accuse you yet. Explain in great detail your case for each one in your list. Once again we see the wishy-washy "it is intrresting" [sic]. Once again xkcd doesn't give his own opinion on something. And once again he puts the onus for analysis on others - this time pushing iGrok to "explain in great detail" why he thinks certain people are innocent. Had iGrok followed his instructions he would've wasted a lot of time and the thread's attention addressing an unimportant question. It doesn't matter who's town, the focus should be who's mafia.
POST NUMBER ELEVEN
On June 07 2011 03:42 amazingxkcd wrote:Show nested quote +On June 07 2011 03:27 iGrok wrote:On June 07 2011 03:23 amazingxkcd wrote:On June 07 2011 03:08 iGrok wrote:On June 07 2011 02:56 Alderan wrote:On June 07 2011 02:53 iGrok wrote:On June 07 2011 02:43 Vain wrote:On June 07 2011 02:31 iGrok wrote:On June 07 2011 02:11 Vain wrote: Ok, i finally finished reading. Man, sleeping is bad for keeping up with a mafia game.
First off: Kurumi is probably town if he also spammed this much in a previous game where he was scum. I don't know his style very good but he is drawing way too much attention to be a comfortable mafia.
I don't quite understand this. So Kurumi is probably town because he's acting the same way he did when he was mafia before? Euh, i meant town. Jackal stated that when he was town he's just as hard to analyze. Iirc he was not scum the other games Jackal played with him. + Show Spoiler +On June 07 2011 00:19 Jackal58 wrote:Show nested quote +On June 07 2011 00:15 amazingxkcd wrote:On June 06 2011 10:47 Alderan wrote:Here's a list of a couple people who seem to be acting a little scummy. (Not saying for sure scum, just people that might not be) Lets get some meaningful conversation going. AmazingxkcdI've already kind of voiced this opinion but I'm going to expound upon my earlier analysis. Let's look at his posts. It is quite clear that it can be seen who are the main talkers for both side. The only question is now how to distinguish between the two sides and how to act upon it
This post, obviously vague, of little help to the town, and posted directly after he appeared on TheAwesomeAll's “Lurker List”. When I pointed out this was a fishy post he responded with this: interesting first post there, all ready trying to set up accustation upon me for supposedly making a scummy post when in reality i am only simply making observation. You already got into my list of suspicious people by derailing a innocent first post when we still have around 30+ hours left to figure out each other.
Obviously immediately went on the defensive, turned and pointed a finger at me, and suggest that the town take its time “figuring each other out” instead of having discussion that is inherently pro-town. In fact his only “contribution” to town discussion was this post:
Please refer to these guides on playing TL mafia.
For town: aidnai, GMarshal
For mafia: bumatlarge, chaos13
LSB's Newbie Guide Mafiascum Newbie Guide Introduction to Mafia (Flash) Ver's town guide Ace's Mafia Manifesto Qatol's Town Guide
So his only contribution to the town is copying and pasting something that is in the third post of this thread? Interesting. On June 06 2011 23:10 Alderan wrote: Also, I'm going to ahead and voting for amazingxkcd, just in case something happens to me at work today and I won't be able to get a vote in.
@ amazingkcd, I'm really just waiting on you to refute the analysis I did earlier.
You are discriminating against me and you just voted for me right now just off the basis of my first post, which i made after i finished watching MLG. You do not provide evidence that i am a scum nor do you back it up should you have given any evidence. It seems that you want me to be lynched when i am trying to win for the town. @iGrok and @Jackal58; I can't analyze Kurumi either, since i take that he's acting as if he has multiple personalities disorder. He should be watched for sure. Also, @Jackal58, you stated that he had the same behavior in the previous games you played with him, what were his roles? That should at least help to give us a direction on him. I am not trying to label you two as complete scum, but i was just concerned about iGrok's request for help from Jackal58. About freeloader, I am currently leaning towards the scummy side as for the reasons others have put up front already, but i need more time to see if i do want to lynch him. There are others here who seem suspicious based on their posts and the tone of their post, but i am not ready right now to make a final desicion. Kurumi was town in XXXIX. Lynched day one for posting nonsensically for the first half of the day. He has improved significantly from that game believe it or not. He is also still playing in PTP mafia and is a self proclaimed SK. Ok, yeah that makes a lot more sense. Yeah, I'm starting to see how Kurumi could be a townie, but I could also see him as a scum who felt the pressure and is trying to change his tune. I still don't thing he should be lynched today. I'm trying to think of who should be, but I really don't know :/ But you agree that it shouldn't be freeloader? Yeah. Here's my "Don't Lynch" list (in no particular order): Me ^^ Jackal58 Vain GGQ Kurumi Treadmill 35spike1 CrJninja Xedat aprudds Actually, looking back, I'm going to put my vote on Drazerk, for twice voting without saying shit. (He might've posted once or twice, but absolutely no substance, only bandwagonning). It is intrresting that you list everyone who did not accuse you yet. Explain in great detail your case for each one in your list. LOL. Kurumi accused me. He recently has backed off of me, but he DEFINITELY accused me. I slipped up on kurumi, but his behavior so far was queer, so i really don't know his stance on you as of now. He is to capricious for me. First off, xkcd and Kurumi - Kurumi is behaving queerly, he's capricious, etc. Also, this is an oddly defensive post against an off-the-cuff comment from iGrok. Another post without saying anything.
POST NUMBER TWELVE
On June 07 2011 03:45 amazingxkcd wrote:Show nested quote +On June 07 2011 03:42 Kurumi wrote:On June 07 2011 03:40 TranceStorm wrote:On June 07 2011 03:34 iGrok wrote:On June 07 2011 03:28 gtrsrs wrote: iGrok did a 28000 character analysis and determined that kurumi was scum, and less than a day later, before he even had time to convince anyone to vote for kurumi, iGrok now has kurumi on his "don't lynch" list.
duly noted Because, as I noted in that post, I wasn't sure. Combined with Jackal's testimony and Kurumi's abrubt change in play, I'd prefer a DT check on him. You know, exactly what I said in that post Hmm. As amazingxkcd has already noted, a DT check wouldn't reveal much about Kurumi. If Kurumi were mafia, he certainly would be selected as the godfather given that the mafia select amongst themselves on night one who the godfather is. Therefore, regardless of whether he is or isn't mafia, we still will have no clue on Day 2 as to his alignment because he could have been town-aligned to begin with, or switched to town-aligned through his godfather powers. I'd kill myself as mafioso if I were GF. Why would you? I thought you wanted to win if assuming you were a mafia. Off topic and irrelevant.
POST NUMBER THIRTEEN
On June 07 2011 03:57 amazingxkcd wrote:Show nested quote +On June 07 2011 03:52 iGrok wrote:On June 07 2011 03:40 TranceStorm wrote:On June 07 2011 03:34 iGrok wrote:On June 07 2011 03:28 gtrsrs wrote: iGrok did a 28000 character analysis and determined that kurumi was scum, and less than a day later, before he even had time to convince anyone to vote for kurumi, iGrok now has kurumi on his "don't lynch" list.
duly noted Because, as I noted in that post, I wasn't sure. Combined with Jackal's testimony and Kurumi's abrubt change in play, I'd prefer a DT check on him. You know, exactly what I said in that post Hmm. As amazingxkcd has already noted, a DT check wouldn't reveal much about Kurumi. If Kurumi were mafia, he certainly would be selected as the godfather given that the mafia select amongst themselves on night one who the godfather is. Therefore, regardless of whether he is or isn't mafia, we still will have no clue on Day 2 as to his alignment because he could have been town-aligned to begin with, or switched to town-aligned through his godfather powers. Usually the GF has to be chosen by the end of D1. I would be shocked if Kurumi was chosen as GF, because a GF would NOT risk being lynched D1 - thats just crazy. That is why i stated if kurumi was chosen as gf already, he's trying to mindfuck with us. He already started day 1 with a bunch of controversial rants, so it more so than not likely he'll continue. Either mafia already chosen their gf if kurumi is mafia or he is playing a strange gamble here. More weird comments from xkcd about Kurumi that don't say anything productive at all.
POST NUMBER FOURTEEN
On June 07 2011 04:05 amazingxkcd wrote:Remember this is a newbie game, so they seem suspicious but that analysis does raise some questions about him. However, what are your thoughts on the other suspects in the current debacle? I don't know, xkcd, what are yours? You've yet to provide any. And "does raise some questions" is a classic way of saying nothing at all while appearing to comment.
POST NUMBER FIFTEEN
On June 07 2011 04:16 amazingxkcd wrote: Hello impervious!!
Also,
does impervious have the same role as benjef? I'll point out that xkcd notices that impervious is only just joining us (this too will come up). apart from that, nothing. Nada.
It's after this that the rookie44 debacle begins, so I'll save the rest for a part two.
To sum up to this point: xkcd has fifteen posts, but he's yet to offer a firm opinion on almost anything. In fact, all but one of Kurumi's posts fall into one of four categories: No Content 1, 4, 7, 8, 12, 14, 15 Defensive 2, 6, 11 Minor Accusations w/o Follow-Up 3, 10 Saying Nothing About Kurumi 6, 9, 13
Post 6 has two parts, so its in two categories. Note than all four categories are pretty much useless to the town.
The only exception so far is post 5 - and I'm being extremely charitable on that. He gives a half-assed argument for Jackal and iGrok being somehow in league.
There are some interesting themes developing about amazingxkcd already, though. For one, he's got some weird fixation with Kurumi. That one doesn't matter yet but it will. He's also gotten in the habit of posting his suspicions of pretty much everybody but not really following up or being decisive. Most fundamentally xkcd has, thus far, been characterized by posting a lot of essentially contentless posts.
One last thing to note is that xkcd has been following the thread quite closely. He notices grush57's early and unexplained vote, he comments on Impervious' entrance shortly after it happens, and most significantly he responds to any criticism or suspicion other player have of him.
More to come in part 2
|
it's day 2 we get a lynch and I think we've got an obvious target amazingxkcd
PART TWO
You thinking, hey Treadmill, I'm suspicious of this xkcd guy but not yet convinced? Well, here things get interesting.
THE rookie44 BANDWAGON One vote would be happenstance. Two coincidence. But three? Three seems like enemy action.
On June 07 2011 06:28 Kurumi wrote: ##unvote ##vote: Rookie44
On June 07 2011 06:29 Senj wrote: ##vote: Rookie44
On June 07 2011 06:31 amazingxkcd wrote: ##VOTE: Rookie44 This, in my mind, is the single most damning piece of evidence against not just xkcd but against all three. In case you missed it, I'm talking about the time stamps - 3 votes, for the same person, within 3 minutes of each other.
It comes down to what you think the probability of this being merely coincidence. Considering that there was no post at perhaps 5 to 10 minutes prior to the 6:28 laying out a convincing argument (such a post would indicate that the three read it and became convinced at around the same time) I believe that the odds are rather low. If you look over the voting thread you'll see that though the votes do get closer as the the end of day time comes around, there is no other case of three votes within 3 minutes. As well, before the rookie situation votes were on average half an hour or more apart, bar a few exceptions.
I am not discounting the possibility of this being chance. However, it seems more likely to me to be co-ordination, and only the mafia is capable of that. This is not the only piece of evidence against xkcd or the others but I believe it is a significant one.
Added to this is my belief that the mafia organized the lynch of rookie44. His post history indicated that he was a likely blue, and especially conisdering last nights murders of GGQ and DeMorcerf, who were not blue but in retrospect appeared to be possible blues, I believe that the mafia has been hunting for blues. It also bears mentioning that all three (xkcd, Senj, and Kurumi) voted before they posted their explanation - I believe it is usually in the otehr order, though I haven't checked.
I'm not going to delve deeper into rookie44's lynch because firstly a decent number of town must have voted for it, so however weak I may feel the case was it was apparently convincing enough for some, and secondly, there is enough other evidence in his posts to indict xkcd without getting into yesterday's lynch.
So, without further ado,
POST NUMBER SIXTEEN
On June 07 2011 06:34 amazingxkcd wrote:Show nested quote +On June 07 2011 06:16 Alderan wrote:On June 07 2011 06:03 Jackal58 wrote:On June 07 2011 05:56 Alderan wrote:On June 07 2011 05:47 TranceStorm wrote:On June 07 2011 05:38 Jackal58 wrote:You guys want to vote for scum? Vote this guy - rookie44: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=9611408Has played before so he has an idea how it works. Very subtle in his fishing for blues. Only scum fish for blues. Wants to know what methods and tactics are used to catch scum. Wants us to share them with everybody. Claims it will help derail scum tactics. When it will obviously do the opposite. Has all but disappeared since this post. I'm sure he'll show up momentarily to tell me how full of shit I am. That's where my vote is going. I would recommend you all do the same. Would you mind doing a post-by-post analysis of rookie44's posts? (There are only 3) Right now I can't really see how subtly he is fishing for blues. After all, we don't know how experienced he really is, so I would like a little more clarification as to your accusation. Wait so you're saying instead of voting for new players being dumb you suggest us to vote for a player who has never played before on the forums (admittedly so) for suggesting that veteran players toss out potential strategies? Sure it's a LITTLE scummy, but until I see some elaboration on your "very subtle in fishing for blues" I'm going to have to disagree with you. You his scum buddy? Just pointing out that I think your analysis is just as weak or weaker than all the others. Let's see how he responds. You seem to be in a position to defend rookie44 when he has made quite a lot of scummy posts, particularly trying to take advantage of noobs to slip up their roles with Show nested quote +What i believe is the crucial difference is that we have large amounts of time for discussion. This also gives us the time to create a solid plan for using whatever roles we have effectively (it would seem that way). Also, notices how already from the start of the game, he is asking for roles and wanted to lynch Treadmill without any sound proof besides making a suggestion about the freeloader wagon being loaded with mafias Show nested quote +Would it be a legitimate stratagy if we lynched treadmill with the thought that he and some other mafia got overzealous with voting for freeloader? Here, he is making assumptions about what the mafia should do, which is trying to divert attention away from him. Show nested quote +It seems like if someone got a role in the mafia then they would be more anxious to start the game, and would be much more active in the very beginning. This is a mafia game for less experienced players so maybe that means there will be some metagame mistakes? for these reasons and the ones given by jackal58 as well as kurumi, i am voting for Rookie44 on the basis of clear scummy post and trying to divert attention away from himself with circular logic ##Vote: Rookie44also alderan, I am very suspicious of you for trying to defend this guy. Elaborate as to why you think he is not a scum. Here we have xkcd explicitly giving his reasons for voting for rookie44. For the most part xkcd is simply reiterating the points made by Jackal - the major point being the bogus notion of "blue-fishing". I'm not really sure what to say about this, I found the case against rookie to be extremely weak anyways. The one point to mention is:
also alderan, I am very suspicious of you for trying to defend this guy. Elaborate as to why you think he is not a scum. Here xkcd is once again casting aspersions and attacking Alderan, and pushing for "elaboration" and more explanation - I'll touch on that later.
POST NUMBER SEVENTEEN
On June 07 2011 06:49 amazingxkcd wrote:Show nested quote +On June 07 2011 06:43 Treadmill wrote: Alternately rookie44 is blue. Let's see: trying not to be noticed, yeah. Mafia or blue. Interested in what blues have to say, well, OK. Not really blue fishing - more interested in talking about the strategy for what our blues should be doing. That's my read on rookie44, a newbie blue.
I didn't want to out him cause if I'm right I painted a big, fat target on his back. But there's all of a sudden a bandwagon building on him, and with how spread out our votes are the mafia will be able to easily swing a lynch. Theres a difference between voting for rookie44 based upon clear and concise evidence rather than bandwagoning to him for the easy lynch. His actions are already been quite suspicious and i already have referenced him to guides that he can use. However, he continued to post as if he ignored those guides still asking about strategies concerning blue hunting and how to act. Theres only 3 votes on him right now, so freeloader is still having the most votes. Those 3 votes (mine included) gave concise explanations for why he is a scum, all of them referring to the role fishing notions set forth by rookie. If you think that he is a rookie blue, then why does he still keep trying to ask for roles and strategies when guides were linked to him? Lets see an analysis on this subject that he could be a rookie blue, because i do not see much evidence to support that. Here's one of the longest posts from xkcd. First off - at this point, there were 4 votes for rookie. In fact, xkcd WAS the fourth vote. So seriously, what the hell? And he says
Those 3 votes (mine included) gave concise explanations for why he is a scum Oh, really? Well Jackal gave an explanation. And xkcd gave an explanation. But Senj had only voted, not posted, and Kurumi had only given a cursory (and uncharacteristic) "I agree with Jackal". Anyways, why is xkcd defending all the votes against rookie? In fact - xkcd has shown himself to have a good eye on the vote list and the thread. Did he just miss Senj voting but not posting? At heart the miscount of how many votes makes this all confusing rather than damning. xkcd's continued habit of referring to people without sating who they are doesn't help.
In fact, the only thing I get out of this is
Lets see an analysis on this subject which is xkcd once again putting the onus of making an argument on someone else. I want to point out - this is a trap. There is no such thing as absolute proof in this game. But from here on in, whenever xkcd encounters an argument he ignores its content and responds with "lets see you make more analysis". Which only stalls things out.
Also, if you're accusing someone of being mafia, the burden of proof should be on you.
POST NUMBER EIGHTEEN
On June 07 2011 08:09 amazingxkcd wrote: Kairo, you just switch your vote to rookie44. What is your reasoning since the last post you made was trying to draw votes away from freeloader onto cherubael. Are you attempting to bandwagon onto this guy now? Okay, this could be amazingxkcd being a good townie - or it could be him trying to look like a good townie, and muddy the trail. Ultimately he isn't actually saying anything, again, except once again casting vague suspicions on another player.
POST NUMBER NINETEEN
On June 07 2011 08:14 amazingxkcd wrote:Show nested quote +On June 07 2011 08:14 CjrNinja wrote: @rookie44 Hurry up and respond to Alderan's question. Do you still advocate voting for gtrsrs? If so, give us a proper explanation as to why. Saying 'for the reasons above' and 'refering to himself in third person' isn't good enough. If you're not going to vote gtrsrs, then who? And why?
Will re-read the thread again to try and get a handle on what's happened the last few hours.
Voting closes in 5 hours, right?
As of now, yes Another post that says nothing.
POST NUMBER TWENTY
On June 07 2011 09:00 amazingxkcd wrote:Show nested quote +On June 07 2011 08:51 Treadmill wrote:I absolutely don't buy the "hunting for blues" nonsense on rookie44. I don't see at all how what he's been saying could lead to blues revealing themselves - one of the people voting for him should lay out the case a bit better. On June 07 2011 06:01 Jackal58 wrote:On June 07 2011 05:47 TranceStorm wrote:On June 07 2011 05:38 Jackal58 wrote:You guys want to vote for scum? Vote this guy - rookie44: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=9611408Has played before so he has an idea how it works. Very subtle in his fishing for blues. Only scum fish for blues. Wants to know what methods and tactics are used to catch scum. Wants us to share them with everybody. Claims it will help derail scum tactics. When it will obviously do the opposite. Has all but disappeared since this post. I'm sure he'll show up momentarily to tell me how full of shit I am. That's where my vote is going. I would recommend you all do the same. Would you mind doing a post-by-post analysis of rookie44's posts? (There are only 3) Right now I can't really see how subtly he is fishing for blues. After all, we don't know how experienced he really is, so I would like a little more clarification as to your accusation. We'll start with the post I linked: On June 06 2011 04:22 rookie44 wrote: Hey guys,
This is all getting a bit out of hand, we seem to already be getting in each others faces over perceived (and real) sleights. I have only played mafia on battle.net, and this is going to be quite a different game to that. Only real difference is timing. Tactics are the same
What i believe is the crucial difference is that we have large amounts of time for discussion. This also gives us the time to create a solid plan for using whatever roles we have effectively (it would seem that way). This is role fishing. He's wanting people to post their roles and tell him how they intend to use them. At the very least he's hoping a noob would post something along the lines of I'm a DT. Who should I check
Maybe some of the more experienced players could expand on what investigative stratagies they have used; their pitfalls, and how we may evade those pitfalls. This is saying "I am scum. How are you guys going to catch me? It's called a scum slip
Perhaps an added benifit will be that it will be very tricky for a mafia to come up with a generalized stratagy that is grounded in reason, so maybe there will be some suspiciously quiet people. (I assume it will be difficult for a generalized stratagy becasue i can only see the mafia being able to take advantage of a specific stratagy by getting their peolpe in the right places). This is just bullshit trying to provide a townie reason for asking.
My analysis in red. This guy is scum. Point by point: 1. Irrelevant. And battle.net mafia is EXTREMELY different from this. 2. No, he isn't asking people to post their roles. He's asking what people think good strategy for blues would be - which is a reasonable question from town and even more sensible for a blue poster. 3. Alternately, he's honestly a newbie asking experienced players what they think we should be doing. 4. Or, he's giving his reason, as a townie, for asking. The "analysis" is bullshit. This is bandwagonning at its WORST. I gave him guides ti read after his 1st post concerning strategies. He ignored it and continued to ask about that topic then makes a sorry post about not reading too much in depth. Also, he wants to play for the lategame as if it is sc2 when we have to get the scums lynched now. This is not his first game, so he has experience already. I make a brief defence of rookie. xkcd reads it, quotes it, and rather than responding to my (admittedly short) arguments posts a bunch of different (and worse) reasons to lynch rookie44.
Also, note this:
This is not his first game, so he has experience already Sounds like he knows what he's doing, wouldn't need to ask for guides or strategies in the first place, right? Wrong. His "experience" is from battle.net mafia - which I dont think anyone in their right mind would equate with forum mafia.
I also want to mention something that xkcd doesn't post - anything else about rookie44. Were he a good townie he might respond to rookie44's halfhearted posts defending himself.
POST NUMBER TWENTY-ONE POST NUMBER TWENTY-TWO
On June 07 2011 10:17 amazingxkcd wrote: @impervious, you just switxhed your vote from rookie to me. I did not see explanation of ur vote for rookie but why the switch now? A double post. With no content. Well, he does see his mistake so this one means nothing.
POST NUMBER TWENTY-THREE
On June 07 2011 10:27 amazingxkcd wrote:Show nested quote +On June 07 2011 10:16 iGrok wrote:On June 07 2011 10:13 Impervious wrote: Ok, I thought it through looking at a variety of different situations, and I believe that we need to push for a lynch of one of those 3, rather than rookie.
Why? Because, it's likely that all 3 (or 2 of them) are mafia, based on the timing (and assuming that rookie is town and we have 2 or so vigis in the game).
When that one flips, here's the outcomes:
Scum - We get vigis to hit one or both of the others overnight. Early knockdown to 3KP for the mafia.
Town - We get a vigi to hit rookie as an insurance policy for switching (although we can argue the merit of this move overnight, and should rookie turn out to be red, Treadmill would be a decent policy lynch tomorrow because of how hard he's been defending).
So, if we're going to hit one of them, we need to pick the scummiest one, in case it's a freak accident that they all voted at the same time like that. And we've gotta do it quick (I'm gone in ~1 hr).
Basically, if we switch - in the worst case scenario we give our vigis a good target tonight, and best case, we hit 2 or 3 mafia. Pretty damn good first lynch/night imo.
Now, I asked myself "have they been acting in the best interest of the town?", and the one that really stood out as a "no" was xkcd, so I'd agree with a switch to him right now.
So, I'm changing my vote. ##Vote: amazingxkcd which 3? EBWOP: just saw your post, stupid itouch. Anyway, lets take a look at this. You are assuming that i am in league with jackal when i had made an eariler post stating that i was suspicious of him and iGrok together. If i was a scum and so was he, then why would i accuse him? I even tried to make a case against kurumi ( that case still holds) that he is too eager to want a dt check. Whats even worse is that you want to lynch either me, kurumi, or jackal for information. Really? That is quite a mafia statement "hey lets lynch random townsmen so we can lynch others for more information? What about me? Im not trying to draw attention, move along" Now, you haven't made much discoveries and analysis yourself, and you derail me from a basis of "it doesn't sound right". I am keeping my vote on rookie, but if you don't respond to this, i will switch my vote to you. Like post number 17, here he's either giving the runaround or he's just confused. The three being referred to are Senj, Kurumi, and amazingxkcd, and the reason being the weird timing of their votes. Bringing up Jackal is missing the point. I really don't know on this one, I'm less charitable than I normally would be as xkcd has been following the thread fairly closely - but it could just be a mistake. Setting that aside,
Whats even worse is that you want to lynch either me, kurumi, or jackal for information
it's likely that all 3 (or 2 of them) are mafia Here xkcd starts to get under some pressure and his response is to all-out straw-man (this means to basically claim that an argument is different from what it is, with your altered version being obviously flawed). xkcd starts screaming "lynch for information" whereas Impervious has straight out written that he believes xkcd to be scum. The grain of truth is that Impervious goes on to talk about what information could be gleaned from lynching xkcd, and considers the possibility that he could be wrong (something good town does but xkcd never did with rookie).
you haven't made much discoveries and analysis yourself This is significant cause as xkcd is aware, Impervious has only just joined the game.
xkcd also brings up his obsession with Kurumi and why we shouldn't DT him.
Finally there's his closing:
I am keeping my vote on rookie, but if you don't respond to this, i will switch my vote to you. which is just ugly.
POST NUMBER TWENTY-FOUR
On June 07 2011 10:30 amazingxkcd wrote: Ebwop; this is directed at impervious
Also, drazerk is looking like a scum now that i start to evaluate him more in depth. I will do more work to see if i should switch my vote to him if impervious gives a proper response. The comment here is pretty much useless - another "I'm suspicious of this guy" that never goes anywhere. Also xkcd is making his vote somehow dependant on Impervious, which makes no sense.
POST NUMBER TWENTY-FIVE
On June 07 2011 10:45 amazingxkcd wrote:Show nested quote +On June 07 2011 10:37 GGQ wrote: Just caught up! Jackal's rookie lynch doesn't seem well-founded to me at all. It's possible that he's mafia but I highly doubt it.
I voted jimbooo; the first line on my mafia XL sheet is a scribble saying "Jimboo-words and actions say different things". His posts since then haven't convinced me to back off of him either. This is my preferred lynch.
I also would support an amazingxkcd lynch, he went on my sheet with his first post and since then he's been underlined twice lol.
Let's get our votes off of rookie and onto one of these two guys. I see that you are keeping a sheet too as well. In any case, i just want to point out that impervious is pushing for a lynch to get information rather than simply kill scum. He states in one of his posts that i seem to be the scummist because of my actions when in fact all of my analysis did not get based on feelings, but rather wordings and behavior shown. Another useless, non-contributing, defensive post. Still straw-manning about the "lynch for information".
POST NUMBER TWENTY-SIX
On June 07 2011 11:00 amazingxkcd wrote: @tdadonis,
You have not made a single and you voted for rookie. Care to explain? Another comment that doesn't say anything.
POST NUMBER TWENTY-SEVEN
On June 07 2011 11:08 amazingxkcd wrote:Show nested quote +On June 07 2011 10:58 CjrNinja wrote:On June 07 2011 09:35 Treadmill wrote:Another interesting point: Jackal58 makes his case against rookie44, it's pretty weak, the people posting aren't convinced. Nobody but him votes for rookie44. Then an hour later On June 07 2011 06:28 Kurumi wrote: ##unvote ##vote: Rookie44 On June 07 2011 06:29 Senj wrote: ##vote: Rookie44 On June 07 2011 06:31 amazingxkcd wrote: ##VOTE: Rookie44 Look at the time stamps, within 3 minutes of each other. And none of them posted for 2 hours previous to bandwagonning rookie. It looks liek co-ordination. This is very interesting. Good pickup. I don't think rookie or jimboo are anything other than inexperienced town. jimboo voting with the flow is certainly suspicious. But his defense is convincing (to me anyway) that he really has no grasp with what is going on. Drazerk is a little more suspicious, having little to no activity in the thread yet voting twice. Keeping my eye on him and his promised analysis. Which reminds me Freeloader please post your Day 1 thoughts, as you promised. Rookie is the most likely to get lynched at the moment. I wonder if a cause of this is due to the fact that an experienced player in Jackal was the one who made the accusation against him. Experienced players in this game will undoubtedly have more gravitas with regards to what they say in this game, and yeah, I can see how people are satisfied with his dissection of rookie's post (helped by the fact that rookie's defense has been terrible). To me, personally, rookie reeks of inexperience, not scum. Mafia would certainly take advantage of the potential answers people give, but I think he was under the impression he was helping town. But considering this is newbie mafia, I'm willing to give him the benefit of the doubt for now. So, who's most suspicious to me? amazingxkcdOn June 06 2011 02:56 amazingxkcd wrote: It is quite clear that it can be seen who are the main talkers for both side. The only question is now how to distinguish between the two sides and how to act upon it This was posted after he appeared on a lurker list, as pointed out by Alderean. A clear non contribution to appear active. (amazingxkcd later layed suspicions on when Alderean when he defended rookie). He attacks iGrok, who was contributing the most analysis to the game, while not really posting analysis of anyone else at all. Especially after Treadmill's post I quoted above, it appears that there was a bit of collaborating between the 3 of them (Kurmuri, amazingxkcd and senj). I'm finding this very suspicious and is my best reasoning to vote for amazingxkcd on a very chaotic day one. Impervious said it best: On June 07 2011 10:13 Impervious wrote: Now, I asked myself "have they been acting in the best interest of the town?", and the one that really stood out as a "no" was xkcd.
You've got my vote amazingxkcd. I didn't put forth analysis? Hey let's see, i analysised kurumi and his statement with wanting a dt check and i stated my positiob on that, i analysised iGrok asking help from jackal which against is suspicious given they hadn't talked much to each other, i analysised rookie's position as very scum like which has different premises than jackal btw, and right Now i analysied impervious's wanting to lynch for information, which i am sure you know is scum behavior. It is quite clear that 1. Rookie probably will die since so many people bandwagoned after mine and jackal's analysis. So, am i being not helpfull, crjninja? I sure am. It is quite clear that you didn't read any of my post after the first two and came to a decidion similar to that of impervious, a decision made by feelings. Another comment about [b]Kurumi and why we shouldn't DT him and it wouldn't tell us anything even if we did *check* Another defensive post that strawmans and doesn't look at the real argument against him (the vote timings) *check* Another post that accuses his accusers of being scum *check* Another post that doesn't actually say anything new or novel or at all really *check*
And as for his "analysis" - look back at post number 5. Does that really count as analysis? Look at post number 16. Are his arguments actually based on different premises than Jackal's? And "analysied impervious's wanting to lynch for information, which i am sure you know is scum behavior"? Just LOL.
POST NUMBER TWENTY-EIGHT
On June 07 2011 11:51 amazingxkcd wrote:Show nested quote +On June 07 2011 11:46 Varpulis wrote: SPELL HIS NAME RIGHT OR I BRING OUT THE THUNDER CjrNinja. happy? Another pointless post
POST NUMBER TWENTY-NINE
On June 07 2011 12:19 amazingxkcd wrote:Show nested quote +On June 07 2011 11:53 heist wrote: OK, this close to the end of Day 1, I'd like to ask everyone who voted for Freeloader, Drazerk, and Jimbooo to revote. I'm not saying they aren't mafia. They very well could be especially Jimboo who remains highly suspicious. However, THEY WILL NOT BE LYNCHED. You won't achieve majority and your votes will be meaningless.
I really urge you all to consider Impervious' plan. There's no real solid long-term plan if we do lynch Jimbooo no matter what he turns up. If you're voting based purely on suspicious behavior alone, Amazingxkcd has given off no pro-town vibe. His early posts contributed nothing useful and his latter posts are mainly defensive posts against a multitude of other people (i.e Drazerk, alderan, kairo,).
Also, why are people still voting for Freeloader..... u specify defensive posts about a multitude of people. The only ones i have directly accused so far is impervious, alderan and rookie44. All of the others i just simply asked what was their reasoning of their positions. It seems that there is a bandwagon move to take me out, no doubt by the mafia as all of the accusations made against me can only be summerized as "He seems fishy" and "his first post was god-awful". Yes, my first post was god awful because i made a critical error with my statement, but all of the other statements include the accusers to lynch me to obtain information about others, rather than to lynch scum. (Impervious directly said this, so this is why i directly accused him). If this commotion keeps going, it looks like i will die and i assure you that would be a bad idea. More straw-manning (his first post really isn't the major argument against him). Again, 'my accusers must be mafia'. And a sentence (well, clause) that I have yet to decipher as having meaning in the English language:
but all of the other statements include the accusers to lynch me to obtain information about others, rather than to lynch scum.
POST NUMBER THIRTY
On June 08 2011 01:05 amazingxkcd wrote:Show nested quote +On June 08 2011 00:39 Kurumi wrote:On June 08 2011 00:37 Xedat wrote: I want to remind everyone that it is night, don't post anything too critical or it will influence the mafia's hits. If you are concerned that you might die save your post for the last few minutes before day. I hope they target me. Best way to waste their shot <3 Well, you just confirmed my stance on you <3 Ummm... what? There are reasons to be supicious of Kurumi and there are reasons to think Kurumi innocent. This is neither. Cause, know what? Mafia members can pretend to be veterans!
POST NUMBER THIRTY-TWO
On June 08 2011 01:20 amazingxkcd wrote:Show nested quote +On June 08 2011 01:19 aprudds wrote:+ Show Spoiler +@rookie Are you serious? At least defend yourself man. Your the start of the Jackel tunnel and this is your defense? Step it up man. @ jimbo Hello Jimbo it seems your eager to jump on bandwagons. A BIT TOO eager no? First you jump on the freeloader bandwagon after "patting me on the back", and when the heat turns up a bit you jump off. You disappear for a few hundred posts (200s-500s) with little to no defense and when you pop back with this being your only defense. + Show Spoiler +Sorry for not replying to accusations against me , I really didnt know what to say. My vote was way to early , which was the reason i retracted it. I don't have anything else to say at this point. Next when Jackel starts to put on the heat on rookie you jump on that one as well. With not a single post explaining why. Not even a simple "I agree", or a "that makes sense". Just a simple silent vote. Someone is trying to avoid attention. + Show Spoiler + I accidentally posted my last post without finishing , sorry. Im not sure if freeloader was TRYING to be suspicious with his last post , but after thinking it through I think he is probably just new. That small amount of evidence got a discussion started , but I think people also voted slightly hastily. It looks very suspicious that so many people voted for freeloader right after he was accused. Yes, it looks very suspicious that people voted hastily. I guess you would agree I have ample reason to FOS you then eh? TL;DR (since I know you don't seem to like reading) Neither me nor Jackel had a very good case (my case on freeloader was not even a case at all) and yet you are more than eager to jump on bandwagons. You have almost no defense for your earlier behavior You don't justify your lynches. Your past self would agree that your suspicious You sir get my vote. I would like to restate my case and that the only person other than Lafali that voted freeloader and than jumped on rookie wagon is jimbooo Are you under the assumption that freeloader is a townie since lafali jumped on him as well as jimbooo? And, now that the fuss has died down, xkcd is back to his old tricks of posting completely useless things, writing comments on issues without commenting.
Hrrrm. Okay, this has taken too long and I'm going a bit screwy. All in all, though, I think that amazingxkcd is clearly mafia and is our best lynch.
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