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Alright I'm back from work alright and read through all you guys wrote.
I'd like to do some analysis of how votes were cast last night. Times are in KST, first player is voter second is votee, -> () is unvote. So here we go: + Show Spoiler + 18:01 VisceraEyes -> stefftastiq 18:59 Palmar -> DeepBlue2 19:54 DeepBlue2 -> GiygaS 01:00 Mataza -> GiygaS 01:39 VisceraEyes -> () 02:48 Skrammen -> GiygaS 07:25 GiygaS -> Skrammen 07:35 prplhz -> Skrammen 07:51 VisceraEyes -> prplhz 09:01 VisceraEyes -> () 09:01 VisceraEyes -> GiygaS 09:05 Karshe -> Skrammen 09:48 hiro protagonist -> Skrammen 09:56 Wunder -> Skrammen 09:58 stefftastiq -> GiygaS 10:08 nard -> Skrammen 10:55 prplhz -> () 10:55 prplhz -> GiygaS 11:00 Voting ends
First I want to say that while scum might have voted for GiygaS, I am sure that his demise was never intentional. After GiygaS was lynched it was 9-2 in favor of town, and if the scum had tried to kill someone who had gotten nurse protection, it would have been 9-2 at dawn on day2. This is not very favorable for scum.
This is why I am exonerating VisceraEyes. He cast the 4th vote on GiygaS at a time when Skrammen had only 2 votes. If VisceraEyes was scum it would not be good to put his fellow scum in such a dangerous position. You might say "Well at that point there were 5 votes missing, maybe he thought that in the event that GiygaS would almost get lynched he would do an 11th hour scum switch and send Skrammen home" but then he would almost certainly have been doomed himself the following day.
Another thing to note is that Palmar's last post before voting ended was at 9:18, at a point where GiygaS had 4 votes to Skrammen's 3. Palmar had been very critical of inactives all game at this point and he might have said "Okay I'm going to switch my vote from DeepBlue2 to Skrammen because I want an inactive to get lynched and Skrammen has more votes already" and it would have been in line with everything he had said so far. Hell, in that last post of his he even says that Skrammen is bad for town but he does not change his vote. If Palmar is scum why did he not do this, greatly helping to prevent an, at that time, impending lynch of GiygaS?
Before next paragraph I'd like everybody to know that I was roleblocked during the night. This means that the mafia has as roleblocker and that town either has Doc+Cop or all townies. Scum knew that all along, now everybody knows.
Now on to Mataza. To everybody's surprise this guy was not scum killed. I say that there are two reasons why this might be; either scum were afraid that he was gonna get nursed, he made several pleas during and they did not want to risk their night kill. After all that would put them at a 9-2 disadvantage which would be very bad. The other possibility is that Mataza is scum, and while the scum could have tried to kill Mataza and hope for a nurse save, that would have been very ballsy and I think that scum are playing it safe now. Mataza's voting pattern is that he put his vote for GiygaS to make it 2-0 which is a very risky move if he is scum.
Now if Mataza is scum I'd say that the scum played very risky on day1, and after getting burned very hard and putting themselves in a terrible position I'd assume that during the night they would agree to play very safe and also I would think that while staying with their personality their roles in the game will probably change to accomodate for their new safe strategy. If Mataza is scum, did they start playing very safe during night1? Did they play risky during day1?
Now lets start at day1. If Mataza is scum they played very risky during day1. Most important thing that happened during day1 was the trial of GiygaS. Mataza giving him the second vote was very risky indeed but it would have paid off immensely if town would lynch somebody else. I suspect that Mataza as scum might have advocated this to his fellow scums because he seems very savvy and apparently considered everybody noob in the beginning. So if Mataza is scum, scum plans looked like this in the beginning: We gonna impress the town first and see where the game goes. The game went in the direction of "lets lynch inactives" which fitted well into scum plans, Mataza in his fourth post even said that "it's not a bad idea to lynch them". I'd say if Mataza is scum, scum played risky on day1 and I think that fits with how Mataza appears; savvy and underestimating the town.
Lets see what has happened since dusk day1 and if Mataza is scum, was it safe?. Very most important is that Karshe has been killed. This is a very safe kill for the mafia as nobody expected them to target him. Mataza spent most of the night begging nurses to protect him. If Mataza is scum he was obviously trying to make himself appear more townie by being very afraid of his life, so the question is, did he overdo this? Mataza asked for something that would probably have been given to him anyway, and he asked for it several times in his night posts.
I'm also somewhat curious about Mataza's intended risky play that would be of great good to this town, especially because it is very long term. He promises us a scum if we do two lynches for him. Does not sound like a bad deal at all, and if Mataza is townie he will probably still be very high on the mafia hitlist, so why not immediately risk his already fragile existence for a guaranteed scum lynch? If Mataza is scum though he might try to lead us to two town lynches, which would bring us to 2v5 after night3. This is a risky, but LONG TERM risky. Short term I'd still consider it very safe play if Mataza is scum.
Some of these arguments came out in the wrong order but I'm done writing now :D I'll post more analysis tomorrow but for now I FoS Mataza and I am very curious to see his defense and what his cool plan might be. I'll probably be here for some hours for any questions
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Oh yea I didn't focus on the third scum at all. It should be apparent that I think it is someone far less active than Mataza but I do not know who. I think hiro protagonist, Wunder and nard are all candidates for obvious reasons, and I very much doubt that it is Skrammen or stefftastiq.
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Oh shit I need to do some roleblock discussion too.
Right, Karshe got killed and I got blocked. We either have Doc+Cop or we have vanilla town. The scum has known this all along.
Now Imagine this. Scum tried to block townie. Why on earth would they do that? Only makes sense if they are trying to do some mind games, but would it not be better to block someone other than me? Someone who is townie but who is acting scummy? Now imagine this: Scum tried to block Doc. If I am doc would their blocking me have helped in their assassination of Karshe? Not likely, I do not think I ever even mentioned Karshe before he was killed so why would they think I would try to save him? So scum tried to block Cop?
What are your thoughts on this?
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Hey
I just want to clarify that what GiygaS said after his lynching should NOT be considered by anybody as evidence of anything. The game ends when you die but as the rules state you can make a GG post and that's what GiygaS did.
On May 18 2011 13:07 GiygaS wrote:GG everyone. Almost had you
It is very unfortunate that he did not stop his sentence 3 words and a smiley earlier but I am sure that he did not mean anything by it.
I'll post more analysis later but I'm always up for questions directed at me.
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@VisceraEyes
You're gonna have to explain what you mean by 'Visceraness'.
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@VisceraEyes
Uh his risky secret plan appeared to be very poor and he apparently assumed stuff that was not true. Palmar tore it apart and now he's suddenly on a crusade against me. I don't really know honestly, but I am not too worried. Even if he succeeds, which I very much doubt, the mafia is gonna have a very hard time. I think that 'Visceraness' is a good word to describe what he's doing right now. It almost seem like he's panicking.
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Of course, tomorrow he might say that his erratic behaviour was his real secret and risky plan. I think he really dug a hole for himself and I'm curious to see if he can dig himself out of it again.
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@Mataza
On May 20 2011 11:29 Mataza wrote: That´s the most recent of prplhz lies.
So what other lies are you talking about?
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Alright
@Viscera
At this time last day, we only had 4 votes if we don't count your stefftastiq vote. I don't think you should worry too much. I'm gonna vote around 3-4 hours before deadline as I did day1 (and as I said I would do day1). This is in around 3-4 hours.
If I am lynched today and I flip green you should lynch Mataza on day3, no matter what kind of defense he puts up. After that I would look at hiro protagonist and nard, one of which will probably be the last scum. If I flip red then you will obviously be in a good spot.
I'll be happy to answer any questions but I'm not going to directly respond to any of Mataza's accusations unless someone else directly requests that I do.
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Alright since nobody else is asking any questions I'll respond to you anyway.
One controlling many is bad. Many controlling one is good. Everybody having each other under control is very good. That's how I see it. You even highlighted it in your post:
While he might not be scum this town has him very much under control.
The keyword here being "town". Town is many. Town controlling someone is good.
I also gotta say I find it really weird that DeepBlue2 is voting for me out of the blue and threatening Mataza that if I turn out to be green he will go after him. If I am lynched and DeepBlue2 does not throw his vote at Mataza one hour into day3 it is going to be very suspicious. I also think that it is weird that DeepBlue2 does not care the slightest about my defense he just rushes into voting for me.
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@Mataza
As I said before I don't really want to answer questions from you. If anybody else feel like asking me anything I'll answer them of course.
Since we're around though I think that we should consider what happens if the other dude is lynched and he flips green. What do you think would be the best thing for town to do during night2 and day3 if I'm lynched and I flip green?
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So here we go
##Vote Mataza
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@Mataza
I'd explain myself towards your analysis right now if anybody had any interest in it but apparently noone does. 90 minutes 'til dusk and we have like 4-5 votes missing?
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@Palmar
And that's been one of the main reasons I have been confident that Mataza is scum. I think that since I posted that I think he's scum he's been acting very weird in his defense and in his counter accusations. I think that if he had remained more collected I would have had serious seconds thoughts by now, like I had day1. But I just think he panicked a lot and VisceraEyes kinda reaffirmed that for me and this is going to be terrible if it turns out that he's green but for some reason not keeping himself together.
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Maybe it's because I'm new at this game so I consider him more savvy than you probably do, as you seem to be somewhat familiar with this game or at least "better" than I am. Anybody who is as good as I think Mataza is is mafia because he's not that bad a townie.
@stefftastiq
Weird timing for doing something that has no effect on the game at all
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@Mataza
GG - Regardless of your soon to be announced role it's been fun playing with you!
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I'm gonna go ahead and compile another list of votes and time here it is along with the first one.
Day1 votelist: + Show Spoiler + 11:00 Day1 starts 11:00 Day1 Half way through 18:01 VisceraEyes -> stefftastiq 18:59 Palmar -> DeepBlue2 19:54 DeepBlue2 -> GiygaS 01:00 Mataza -> GiygaS 01:39 VisceraEyes -> () 02:48 Skrammen -> GiygaS 07:25 GiygaS -> Skrammen 07:35 prplhz -> Skrammen 07:51 VisceraEyes -> prplhz 09:01 VisceraEyes -> () 09:01 VisceraEyes -> GiygaS 09:05 Karshe -> Skrammen 09:48 hiro protagonist -> Skrammen 09:56 Wunder -> Skrammen 09:58 stefftastiq -> GiygaS 10:08 nard -> Skrammen 10:55 prplhz -> () 10:55 prplhz -> GiygaS 11:00 Voting ends
Day2 votelist: + Show Spoiler + 11:00 Day2 starts 19:18 VisceraEyes -> Palmar 21:11 Palmar -> hiro protagonist 09:51 Mataza -> prplhz 11:00 Day2 Half way through 21:23 nard -> Mataza 23:11 Wunder -> Palmar 23:48 DeepBlu2 -> prplhz 07:27 prplhz -> Mataza 08:26 hiro protagonist -> Mataza 09:48 Skrammen -> Mataza 09:49 stefftastiq -> prplhz 10:44 VisceraEyes -> () 10:44 VisceraEyes -> Mataza 10:53 stefftastiq -> () 10:53 stefftastiq -> hiro protagonist 11:00 Voting ends
Some facts about the voting: Of the 5 people who voted for Skrammen on day1; GiygaS and Karshe are gone, hiro protagonist and nard voted for Mataza on day2, Wunder voted for Palmar on day2.
Of the 6 people who voted for GiygaS on day1; Mataza and DeepBlu2 voted for prplhz on day2, Skrammen, VisceraEyes and prplhz voted for Mataza on day2, stefftastiq voted for Palmar on day2.
Of the 1 people who voted for DeepBlu2 on day1; Palmar voted for hiro protagonist on day2.
People whose votes got somebody lynched on both days (lynching one scum and one townie): hiro protagonist, nard, Skrammen, VisceraEyes and prplhz.
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EBWODP:
Okay that's not right, only Skrammen, VisceraEyes and prplhz got somebody lynched on both days.
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I think nard might be on to something with Wunder so I'm gonna revisit all of his 16 posts now.
+ Show Spoiler +LinkOn May 18 2011 09:50 Wunder wrote:Hey guys! Sorry I've been so inactive, didn't know the game moved so fast I'm reading through the pages now, so I will edit this post to cast my vote. + Show Spoiler +On May 18 2011 09:56 Wunder wrote: Wow, looks like I got in just under the clock. Whew.
I haven't played forum mafia before, and I've only played the SC2 mod of it, but that seems to take a few rules from F11's version and adds some new roles in it too. But I generally dislike having a lynch day one, although it seems to be mandatory, so I'm going to go with the safer option here and vote for
##Vote: Skrammen + Show Spoiler +On May 18 2011 10:00 Wunder wrote: I think there's one hour? Good thing I woke up early today.
His two first posts came 1 hour before deadline on day1. Judging from their timestamps he apparently read through 8 pages of posts in 6 minutes. The only posts inbetween his first two posts are; one from Karshe saying "welcome" and Mataza commenting on him arriving just in the nick of time.
Analysis I think his false claim to having read 8 pages of posts in 6 minutes is so blatant that he is not trying to trick us. I think he just doesn't want to say "Hey everybody, I'm gonna bandwagon because I didn't put any effort into this game at all so far" because that would pretty much ruin the fun for everybody else. So I really think he showed up late. In the third post he correctly answers the question "when do we have to vote?". I don't think there's a real scum-tell here so he'll get the benefit of the doubt.
+ Show Spoiler +LinkOn May 18 2011 18:18 Wunder wrote: Hi! Sorry, can dead people still post? Probably not, right?
Anyways, sorry for the wrong vote - decided to go with the safer vote rather than have a bunch of suspect innocents. I'll hopefully participate more tomorrow!
Just to clarify, we can PM anyone here right? To have like secret conversations?
This post was made 7 hours into night1. One of our awesome and lovely hosts GMarshal promptly answers his question.
Analysis You could say that Wunder was only wondering about this because he really did not know about this. I think that if he was scum it would be very likely that one of his scum companions had already PM'd him so in that case he should have known. I think this is a slight townie-tell.
+ Show Spoiler +LinkOn May 19 2011 19:52 Wunder wrote: I may have stepped too deep here, the level of analysis is quite mindboggling. I'd love to contribute, but I'm not sure how or where to start, even after reading a lot of the newbie guides... One thing that can be said though is that VisEyes, Palmar and Mataza are all very active, and I do believe at least one of them is Mafia.
Sadly, I don't have much proof and I'm not sure how all of you guys have to time to sift through and analyze everyone's posts :< what does FoSing someone actually do, other than make your suspicions more concrete?
I will try to monitor this situation more, but I think a lot of my opinions are siding with VisEyes right now, though I'm not sure why. + Show Spoiler +On May 19 2011 20:00 Wunder wrote: @Palmar: But what does that entail? Does it just mean that everyone knows you think that X is mafia? Is that all it does?
Also, I agree with VisEyes that all his calls, though a bit irrational, are somewhat based from the information in front of him. I do think that purplehaze could be suspicious, and that him and the other mafioso turned GiygaS in, in an attempt to throw a few people off their tail. I currently have my eye of both Palmar and PurpleHaze + Show Spoiler +On May 19 2011 20:17 Wunder wrote:@Nard: pretty nice post, and... pretty bad pun I agree somewhat with your analysis, however I doubt a lot of the inactive people would be mafia, especially since reading the newbie guide one would assume mafioso to be active, rather than inactive. + Show Spoiler +On May 19 2011 20:30 Wunder wrote:@Palmar: Oh. Ok That makes sense then. FoS on Palmar and PurpleHaze@VisEyes: I agree. Palmar's argument and evidence against you have been somewhat shakey, though I'd have to go through and analyze it word for word ><
These posts were made 9-11 hours into day2. Within 3 hours before both VisceraEyes and Palmar had posted some very comprehensive analysis with VisceraEyes FoS'ing Palmar and I quite heavily, Palmar somewhat calmly defending us both. Before the 3rd post in this series nard posted some analysis of hiro protagonist, DeepBlu2, me and Palmar, mostly suspicious of DeepBlu2.
Analysis He is continuing his newbie/bandwagon act. In his second post I think it's worth noticing that he is using the phrase "information in front of him". This sounds a lot like he knows about WIFOM. If he knows about WIFOM then how can it be that he asks silly questions about FoS? Both terms should be easily google-able anyway yet he goes out of his way to ask about it on the forums. Seems like he might be going out of his way to inform everybody that he is newbie and that he does not have too much time for this game.
+ Show Spoiler +LinkOn May 20 2011 16:05 Wunder wrote: Wait, so what's happening here? PurpleHaze is claiming he got roleblocked and so we have a potential roleblocker and with that, either 8 vanilla townies, or 6 vanilla townies, 1 doctor and a Detective.
Mataza is claiming he knows who the doctor is because of 'observational skills'. I doubt a mafia would openly expose himself to such a thing as the only guarantee he'd know is if he was a mafia and one of them roleblocked the doctor, thus sealing the only way Karshe could have survived.
Am I right in this analysis? o-o + Show Spoiler +On May 20 2011 16:06 Wunder wrote: Also, when do we have to vote? + Show Spoiler +On May 20 2011 23:11 Wunder wrote:Show nested quote +On May 20 2011 20:28 stefftastiq wrote: its also noteworth that Karshe also voted for skrammen - though he was town -which kind of proves that votingpattern isnt bound to make that player scum or town,
Aha, this is something important that hadn't been addressed. If mafia were apart of the offvoter group, why would they narrow it down further by killing off an innocent offvoter? That doesn't mean that all offvoters are suddenly innocent, but it does make it a somewhat level playing field. Unfortunately I won't be able to stay up to read the rest of the day's discussion, so I'm going to have to bandwagon again. The 4 votes already cast are all over the place, but I think there's one person here that currently stands out relative to the other active posters. ##Vote: Palmar
These first two posts were made 19 hours before deadline day2. The third was made 12 hours before deadline day2.
Analysis These posts are the first of his with any real content. He's very vaguely claiming that Mataza is innocent and asking a question to which he probably already knows the answer, as he's posted it before. In the end he votes for Palmar with close to no reasonable.
Link + Show Spoiler +On May 21 2011 11:41 Wunder wrote: Ah fuck. The people who voted for Mataza didn't really think of the implications. What does this achieve? That the doubters of Mataza are now all possible mafia? + Show Spoiler +On May 21 2011 22:00 Wunder wrote: you dun goof'd. + Show Spoiler +On May 22 2011 09:31 Wunder wrote: Hmm, I don't have time to do the analysis, but I'll say this much, looking at the votelist from two days ago as well as the general back and forth in the posts, I have a heavy FoS on Prplhz. This is due to the fact that he swung the vote against GiygaS, meaning the third scum convinced him to let GiygaS go as he wasn't a great scum player.
This is backed up by his vote against Mataza, who tried to come up with a plan to expose at least one scum in the process. Unfortunately it was stopped by a starting vote by nard, and then followed by Prplhz, hiro, Skrammen, and most importantly VisceraEyes. Now Vis, why did you suddenly change your vote from being so adamantly against Palmar?
These posts are from 40 minutes after deadline day2, 11 hours after deadline day2, and 22 hours after deadline day2.
Analysis First post here appears to be a townie flustered with the lynching of a townie. Second post is not worth my attention :D Third post is another bandwagon as well as somewhat shallow analysis.
Conclusion I do not think there is anything overly suspicious about this guy. He genuinely appears to be somewhat new at forum mafia. His analysis is short and shallow and he hasn't really attracted too much attention so far. Either he's a very good scum or a not too great townie (sorry dude ). I'm gonna go with the latter.
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EBWOP
Apparently nard wasn't accusing Wunder of anything btw :D But I only noticed that half way through my analysis and then I thought "what the hell, lets just finish this up".
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