EPTComplete newbie, be gentle.
Surprisingly Normal Mini Mafia II
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Palmar
Iceland22632 Posts
Complete newbie, be gentle. | ||
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That being said, while the 25% odds of lynching a mafia on the first day may seem steep, there are tons of things that we can do to increase our odds. The first part is that we need to get everyone to step up and talk. The more people talk, the more chance someone makes a mistake that can be taken advantage of. And as Mataza pointed out, no matter the setup, we do have available more than one mis-lynches, So even if we do stake a townie this first day, we aren't in any trouble really. And more importantly, even if the person that dies is green, then we at least already have very valuable information on the people that wanted him dead. | ||
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I'm more worried about the quiet people, it's only been 13 hours or so, but we're still missing half the town in the action. If people don't post people don't make mistakes. So please type in a few sentences so we know you're alive: Karshe Hiro Protagonist Skrammen DeepBlu2 Wunder | ||
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Again, preferably I don't want to lynch an inactive, because it's almost guaranteed they aren't mafia. But if there are still inactive people this time tomorrow and we've got nothing else to go on, I will seriously consider casting a vote their way, if nothing else just to get them talking. | ||
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On May 17 2011 02:25 nard wrote: dont forget we have an 48hour day cycle, so there is still plenty of time for everybody to post. i can imagine there are still some people thinking about what they could include in their first post which is not completely trivial - took me a while as well :p I don't quite understand that logic... Why would it take effort to create a first post? Even if you say something completely retarded it's fine as long as you have nothing to hide. Barring revealing a blue power role, anything you say in your first post will just be that... a simple first post. | ||
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Now, listen up. Mataza is pro town. He might not be the best at portraying it, but this guy is as innocent as a newborn baby. The worst way to play on the first day is to lynch someone this outspoken and willing to analyse, in addition giving the mafia good targets to bandwagon on. Plenty of people have band-wagoned after Gig and VisEyes, any number of them could be our scum. Luckily there is at least some improvement in voting for stefftastiq, seeing as "hi lol, i'm new" is basically a terrible first post. If you're pro-town, you're not careful. You don't give careful observations and tell people you're new. But instead you just cannon rush the fuck out of whomever you think might be red. He was also very quick to apologize, which is another sign of someone that is insecure. But the again... he might just be that new and naive... If you're town Steff: step up your damn game, because you're not helping us at the moment. Here's another option: As I don't have a proper red read on anyone yet should we consider just lynching someone that will get mod-killed anyway? That is probably the safest mislynch, as even if it's wrong, that person would've died anyway... Oh, and here is my FOS: DeepBlu2 On May 17 2011 05:41 DeepBlu2 wrote: I am here. This is off to a good start. I am active..Not sure who I think atm. Hi2u2 On May 17 2011 11:57 DeepBlu2 wrote: I'm leaning towards Mataza at the moment. I'm not positive yet but just the fact he's defending himself so aggressively and has been caught with a couple of contradictions while blaming others as well. I'm going to be keep looking at his posts but he's my only suspect currently. I'm not saying it's definitely Mataza just the way he's handling himself is very defensive. Oh, would you look at that... a band-wagon I can get on without providing a single line of analysis? I can even hop on and feign being uncertain... that's a good plan for the future! ##Vote: DeepBlu2 | ||
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On May 16 2011 12:11 Mataza wrote: At first i thought I would claim cop openly, but then I remembered that I just once saw a game where that ever worked. And boy how often it does not work. For the time being, I suggest we treat this game as if it was setup 4, with 9 vanilla no cop no doc. There are times to claim cop, but there are no times to claim doc. You see that? And now the mafia is bound to notice too, which is why I was hoping a strongly worded post would be enough to clear Mataza of suspicions. Hopefully Mataza will come in and tell us that this was a mistake, he is not the cop. If he does that I'll completely renounce my stance of him being innocent, and treat him as every other villager. But until he clears this up, we will treat him as a potential cop. Now the mafia is bound to shoot him in the first night anyway, but there is no reason for us to do the mafia's job. @DeepBlu2: you mention Giyg attacking two people? Who is the other one? I thought all his posts were mostly directed at Mataza? But then again, I sometimes can't even understand what Giyg is saying... so I might be wrong. Please explain your defense. | ||
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This also means I renounce all my previous claims that Mataza was innocent. I mean, I still have problems with the way you post, that post was made after the game started, so you must've known your role by then. In general lying as a townie is a bad idea, and given your previous experience you should really know that... I expect you to step up your play and be more consistent. | ||
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On May 18 2011 01:14 Karshe wrote: Then, his most eye raising act, he then takes it upon himself to defend Mataza, the town's biggest point of discussion, while pointing a completely random finger away from Mataza. And I mean, he really defends Mataza. Hell yes I did! I'd do it again... and you know what: I'm going to! @Mataza - Regarding Giyg I don't think he's mafia, and I don't think you are either. You're obviously the more experienced player of you two, and at least your posts make sense, something I haven't been able to decode from Giyg's posts. I really do think you're just two townies randomly pointing fingers at each other while the true scum sits back and enjoys the show. But this is just my gut feeling though, I don't have any evidence to back it up. Perhaps because I really just can't make anything useful out of Giyg's posts I mean, the logic is quite simple: Either he's spammy town or bad mafia. If he's bad mafia he's an easy lynch later on, and might even reveal more connections in the coming days. If he's spammy town... well then he's just spammy town. So yeah, if he's mafia, then he's actually so bad that we can use it against them. But I really don't think he is, I think the mafia lurks amongst the less active or moderately active players. But then again... maybe lynching him is worth just getting rid of the shitstorm of useless posts he conjures... | ||
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What I'm afraid of is going into day two with very little or no information about half the players in the game. How on earth are you going to analyse who is mafia amongst the people that have hardly said anything so far in the game? Any information is better than no information. This is why I don't want to just let everyone bandwagon you in the first place, and then Gyig now. I want one of the people that aren't contributing against the wall. On May 18 2011 02:01 Mataza wrote: Common sense: Active mafia will try to disrupt town conversation. Bad town might do that as well. Both are bad for town. This is very much true. But I'd rather have to filter through tons of bad information injected by mafia, than having no information at all and just playing a guessing game. Actually, here's a promise for you, if everyone comes into the thread, contributes and makes good analysis of the situation, I will switch my vote to GiygaS and help you get him lynched. Just so you know how I think in this game. Karshe recently posted an analysis on me, and accused me of being red. This only reduced the chance of me going after him, because he is at least trying to contribute. | ||
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On May 18 2011 06:20 prplhz wrote: So I'm asking everybody (and that include you, person who is reading this now) to post who they would like to get lynched on day2 in case they themselves will get assassinated during the night. I think that I might be a target (hoping for a cute nurse to help me out though!) so this is probably quite relevant. This will be great for town, we can have you analytical skills readily available for day2 even if you get killed during the night! prplhz... Why do you keep doing this man, most everything you post is fairly well structured and useful, and then you throw in some random comment that's basically useless for the town, and even directly harmful. I don't really give a shit about all the stuff VisEyes said, he's just building straw houses like he's been doing all game. I don't mind that at all. But this one quote really requires explanation. Why would you ever ask for doctor protection? That simply doesn't make sense from a logical point of view. I'll explain why... Scenario 1: You're green town You should _never_ ask for protection as a green townie. Your death during the night is great success for the town, because no blue role was harmed. Scenario 2: You're blue town (and thus cop, since none of the possible setups have 2 docs) Mafia _immediately_ knows the setup now (since they already know if they have a roleblocker or not). If they have a roleblocker, they'll just roleblock you, and if they don't have a roleblocker, they know there is no doc in the setup... so they just kill you. Well you might be meta-gaming hardcore... trying to reverse trick the mafia into going for you, and thus dying as green. But there is a term for lynching anyone that lies during the game (lal - lynch all liars). Lying is a big gamble for the town... I think the biggest possibility is that you simply didn't think this through well enough, so I'd like to you to publicly renounce your request for doctor protection. | ||
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My opinion remains that the greatest threats to this town are people like DeepBlu, Wunder, stefftastiq, Hiro and Skrammen. People who give us nothing to read them on. I mean, GiygaS is completely useless, so I'm not going to push against a lynch on him, hell... he might flip red and we're in good shape. But at some point this town needs to get aggressive towards those who just... don't do anything. Now keep doing what you've been doing, because it's a good thing you're doing it. | ||
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This definitely isn't a bad start. I still worry about the amount of information we have, but I guess that can be remedied in the coming days. First thing to do is try not to overthink the situation. There is a chance the mafia might have voted for Giyg as soon as they saw him as a potential target, but the obvious and much more accessible solution is to approach the problem from the point of view that mafia didn't vote for mafia. So unless any major clues get revealed, the first thing to do is to analyse and understand everyone that got on the wrong side of the vote, and try to find out who was genuinely wrong and who had malicious intent. Karshe Hiro Protagonist Wunder Nard Palmar It's more than likely that both the remaining mafia can be found in this list. I will break down everyone's posts in this list, except of course myself, that's a job for someone else, and provide analysis in the coming day. | ||
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On May 19 2011 01:24 VisceraEyes wrote: Here's my problem with your approach here Palmar. Everyone on that list voted for Skrammen for one reason: Because he's inactive and you (among others) were gunning hard for inactives the ENTIRE GAME. I don't even have to analyze your posts...they all say the same thing. "Inactives are a threat to this town, we must get rid of them first." What I find interesting is that after spending all game saying this, the very first post you make after we find some scum is "Forget inactives...let's start looking for scum now!" As Mataza pointed out, 2 of the 4 most inactive players voted rightly for who they thought was scum. The other 2 bandwaggoned on someone more inactive than they are. I mean, great success on the first day might render my approach irrelevant in this game, but you can't count on every game getting lucky with a loud-mouth the first day. Sometimes that same loud-mouth will be a bad townie. I don't want to lynch inactives. I want to threaten them with a lynch to the point they are forced to contribute to the game, and then we can start scumhunting. While written information for analysis is the best way to approach scum hunt, as I'm sure both you and mataza will agree with me in, vote patterns are also something you can base scum-hunting on. I am all for putting pressure on inactive people to step up and provide us with information, but I did not get much support for it last night, so I'll just admit... I'm kind of giving up on that approach, and gonna go with the ammunition I have at hand to get the baddies. I had a bad read on Gyig, looks like I had a good read on Mataza. I actually thought they were both townies pointing fingers at each other. But yeah, Mataza looks really clean now. But listen up here: I'm going to retract my first statement about only analysing the people who did not vote for Giyg. I went back and re-read all his posts, and he's so chaotic and bad, that there is a possibility of the mafia simply throwing him under the bus to gain trust, because he was always going to get lynched anyway. I'm not going to start pointing fingers just yet, but someone like purplehaze looks really damn safe now after being the deciding vote that got a mafia lynched. It's not far-fetched to think that any smart mafia would consider throwing their useless buddy under the bus to buy safety. Lastly: It is important to no end that VisEyes and Mataza leave their thoughts in this thread before day breaks, you two are by fare the most likely mafia targets. Of the townies that actually contributed on day one, myself and Kersha are probably safe, seeing as it'll be easy to convince the town to vote against us. purplehaze is in a weird spot, but I don't think he'll get murdered. Might post your thoughts anyway though. | ||
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I didn't change my vote because my strategy didn't work, and both the targets that you guys were going for were basically fair game to me. I didn't really care which one you lynched. How many times do I have to repeat this: I don't want to lynch inactives, I want to use votes to pressure them into action. On May 18 2011 09:21 VisceraEyes wrote: @Mataza Keep in mind that Palmar is ABSOLUTELY CERTAIN of GiygaS and prplhz' innocence. Here is one of your wrong quotes... I really think it's bad for the town if people keep lying, Only a few posts earlier I had posted this in a conversation with Mataza: On May 18 2011 02:23 Palmar wrote: if everyone comes into the thread, contributes and makes good analysis of the situation, I will switch my vote to GiygaS and help you get him lynched. (link to entire post: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=222568¤tpage=8#145 ) So yeah. You wanted explanation of my posting pattern... there you go. I just didn't really give a shit which one got killed. As I already stated, I couldn't really make much sense of GiygaS posts, so I didn't have a strong red read on him. And Skrammen was just being completely useless... so I wasn't gonna jump in and defend him either. | ||
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On May 19 2011 07:57 Mataza wrote: @Palmar, @Viscera Stop arguing. You are prolly both town. Vis, if you trust me at all, drop it. I can´t really say much more. Palmar, I think there are more obvious targets than Vis. You said yourself Vis is a bit random. On the other hand Karshe is calm, collected and utterly wrong. The more I read his post history, the more i am sure. Don't worry about it, I was merely doing the same thing as I did to you with your cop claim, and with purplehaze with his random doc request. I want to keep the town honest, because lying is almost never good for the town. It only makes it that much harder to find the really good stuff. | ||
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Your post analyses: What did Karshe say that could've gotten him killed I will now analyse: What does Karshe's death accomplish for the mafia The state of the town: After GiygaS got lynched last night, there was an interesting situation in the town. We got a correct lynch on the first day, but sadly, the mafiosi that got lynched was pretty much... insane. Let's have a look at how this death affects the active players: VisEyes: Karshe was on his short-list of suspects. Viseyes still strongly suspects me (Palmar) and Purplehaze. It is interesting to note that Karshe was not the only target VisEyes and Mataza agreed on. They also agreed that Purplehaze was suspicious. Did the mafia intend to break up the combination of VisEyes/Mataza? Mataza: Currently Mataza is pretty well trusted in the town. If he's playing mafia then he's at least being very subtle about it. But he was very convinced Karshe was mafia during the night. Mataza also fos'd purplehaze during the night. Did the Mafia want to discredit Mataza by proving him wrong? Purplehaze: Purplehaze was the one that sealed the deal on the GiygaS kill. This is important because no matter the fact that it could be a bluff, it should give him some credibility. Karshe's death did not change much for Purplehaze aside from the fact that he is now the prime suspect agreed upon by VisEyes and Mataza Did the mafia want to set Purplehaze up? Palmar: As for myself, I got fos'd by Karshe early in day1. I was the only active player along with Karshe that did not vote to kill GiygaS. Mataza had already cleared me of his suspicions, but Karshe's death proved that he was wrong there. I am not stupid, thus I can clearly see all the arrows pointing towards myself at this point. Did the mafia want to set me up? -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- And here is the big thing. Karshe was all for lynching and pushing inactives. Please note the pattern that Karshe's death discredited every active player in town. The more I think about it the more I understand what a brilliant way of causing confusion in the town it was to kill Karshe. Just imagine what you can do with one night-kill Discredit Mataza Break up Mataza/VisEyes Paint a target on Purplehaze Paint a target on Palmar I'd take this opportunity with open hands if I was the mafia. | ||
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My analysis still stands. I would like to see how Karshe's death has negatively affected the following players: Wunder Hiro Protagonist Nard Stefftastiq DeepBlu2 Skrammen Truth to be told. We know very little about them. I am going to try to find time to analyse each and every one of those during the coming day. | ||
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Your theory is based on the assumption that the night kill was simply used to kill whomever was the biggest threat to the mafia at the point. While essentially correct, it's such obvious logic to do that. The mafia knows, just as well as we do, that if player a FOS player b, and then player a dies during the night, player b immediately comes under suspicion. Like... it's inevitable. If Karshe FoS's Mataza and myself, and then he dies. Isn't it obvious that both of us will immediately be under fire from the town? Put yourself on the other side. If someone accused you in day1 and you were mafia. Wouldn't you think killing him was a bit too obvious? Wouldn't you think that as soon as he died people would go back and read all his posts, only to find that he was going after you? I don't buy it. Karshe's death was no accident. It was carefully chosen to cause maximum confusion in the town. | ||
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On May 19 2011 19:05 VisceraEyes wrote: Shouldn't take long. That's the long list of inactives.  Do you not see why I have a problem with that? Do you not understand why it bothers me to no end that we don't have any information to go on? How on earth will we prove those guys scum, when nothing of value has been said? | ||
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I wasn't suspicious of Purplehaze at the point, but I really wanted clarification on why he asked for a doctor protection out of nowhere? Your argument at this point is: Purple defended Mataza = Purple Scum I defended Mataza = Palmar Scum Mataza Defended me = Mataza Scum One thing is pretty damn sure, not all of us are scum. Thing is, you can read whatever you want from any of the three of us. You can go back and find "scummy" stuff from any of us. Hell, I can go back and find scummy stuff on you. But I don't think you're scum. I just think that you tunnel-vision way too much on the few people actually playing the game. What you cannot do is find "scummy" stuff from everyone else playing this game. | ||
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If I FoS you I'm letting it known that I believe you're mafia. | ||
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 Instead of writing "I currently have my eye on both Palmar and PurpleHaze" you could've written "FoS on Palmar and PurpleHaze". I think I've made my stand clear. I am not comfortable with the view that we only have to take a look at the outspoken players in order to find scum. But VisEyes seems pretty zealous in his witch hunt, so I'm not going to argue any more with him. He has at least shown the willingness to change his opinions in the past, which is in my opinion a good thing. My time is better spent trying to analyse what little information we have on the remaining sheep in the game. | ||
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The mafia want to fit in. If the town is quiet, the mafia wants to be quiet. If the town is loud, the mafia wants to be loud. My initial focus on getting everyone talking is that it's easier to spot loud mafia in a loud town, than quiet mafia in a quiet town. Obviously there are exceptions, but that's the general rule. | ||
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I promised to go hunt the scum instead of spending time arguing with VisEyes. I have done this now and I think I may be on scum trail. [r]Hiro Protagonist[/r] On May 17 2011 02:02 hiro protagonist wrote: good morning team. first timer here. I agree, this is off to a good start. there is no reason to suspect anyone right now, as there is very little to go on, so its a little wait and see  I agree with VisceraEyes, its important to ask alot of questions. I will want clarifications on posts I find suspicious, and please do the same for me!This is his first post. It contains nothing of value but some pointers about being new. There is no reason to state you're new to the game after it's started, but many other people in this game did so. I'm not going to get locked up on that. On May 17 2011 02:31 GiygaS wrote: What do you think of the whole inactive debate? I think first day we should give them a break, but as they are more and more inactive we may want to infer scummyness. Also, its boring when people don't actually play :-P This is a quote by the confirmed mafia in the game. His posting style was really damn random so there isn't much to read from it. But notice how friendly his style is toward his fellow mafia? On May 17 2011 02:58 hiro protagonist wrote: Its true that lurking round is a good place for scum to hide, as there is little evidence to indict them. how ever all but 3 of us have posted and I doubt that ALL of the inactives will be scum... best bet is a scum has already posted, so we should try to sniff em out! If we don't have a good lead by tomorrow, then we should ask the lurkers to step up and explain themselves... Another fluff post. Not much to read from this. On May 17 2011 12:23 hiro protagonist wrote: Ok, here are my thoughts so far, the first two people I gonna talk about are the ones i have the most read on/talked the most o far: VisceraEyes: He was the most active in the first few pages, with most of his post wanting simply for all active players to say hi. Also mentioning not to take suspicions of one another as a bad thing. I can agree with this line of logic, as it will foster a more friendly town, and get in on the scum hunting. His FoS of Mataza looks more like a call for discussion then an actual accusation. my worry is that he is almost TOO town, and is a likely prime hit for Mafia, unless of course he IS Mafia. Mataza: considered the most suspicious as of right now, and with good reasoning. His first post was one of feinting a cop role. and Has been very Defensive initially when VisceraEye ask a question. Then he points the finger right back at VisceraEyes. after that he claims that he "just wanted to see how you would react". However he made a good post about how he wants to talk about what everyone else thinks, and his post are in the vein of scumhunting (when his not busy defending himself). not sure what to think of him tbh. Next up GiygaS, nord, Palmar,: These 3 have the most posts with the least amount of Analysis. most likely town wanting to hang low or wait and see before going into to much discussion. GiygaS has done the most in getting discussion going, expesialy around what VisceraEye and Mataza have been saying. not alot to go on. prplhz: quite at first but then a solid post with good analysis. Deepblue, Steff, Karshe: still need to here more from them. deepblue has gotten in pretty late with just a one liner. gonna watch to see if he is gonna just slide under the modkill, as there are still some inactives, and is laying low(as in acting scummy) thats it for now. Ah finally, the first post where he provides real analysis. Granted it's very "safe". He doesn't point any fingers and he doesn't put his neck out there. Both the long analysis he gives are inconclusive. Then I bolded a part where he congratulates Giyg for getting people to talk. By this point almost everyone else was getting fed up with the spam. On May 18 2011 09:05 hiro protagonist wrote: Ok, LOTS to go on here, gonna give my take on things: The General feeling for the first day started like this: the town began giving intro post that most had no content. the exception to this is of course Mataza, who kinda claimed Cop, and then retracted it.( I still do not like is explanation). the first three people to really get the ball rolling where ViscaraEyes, GiygaS, and Mataza. Of the three, I liked VisEyes approach the most, and Mataza's the least. but these 3 started talking, there still talking, and its leading somewhere. the way I feel about it is the longer they talk, the long one will slip up, and for me that does not make them A high priority lynch. Is one of them Mafia? man it sure looks like it. the next list of people include me: Hiro, Karshe, Palmar, Prplhz, and nard. Of this group, Prplhz and Karshe have had the most helpful post in my eyes. Palmar and nard mostly made some general post about the situation. Im leaving me out because thats a job for someone else. Where does this leave me? I starting to look at inactives to vote for. but which one? The only one I feel right now that would be an ok vote would be Skrammen, and heres why. the only post by Skrammen is one of agreeing with Mataza, apparently for no reason, ether he is a terrible Maffia, or a terrible townie. Mataza, I want to believe your town, but the way you go about playing just rubs me a bit. I LOVE that you are taking swings at people, but as soon as some one wants to have a disscusion, you ether turn your finger on them, or call them a Bandwaggoner. I also dont like that almost every defense you say "I just wanted to see how you would react." that might be true, but it leaves me with no read on you... what would we get if we voted Skrammen? if he flips town, we got a good reason to trust Mataza. If he flips scum, well, Mataza has some explaining to do... will decide in a bit, to give more inactives time to post Surprisingly good post, considering his earlier post history. He wants to vote for Skrammen on completely logical basis. There is no arguing with the fact that at this point Skrammen wasn't being useful to the town. But the content of this post is really just... "I'm going to say intelligent things that make look pro-town, without actually taking a conclusive action" Note that he doesn't stick his neck out far enough to actually cast a vote against Skrammen... On May 18 2011 09:48 hiro protagonist wrote: gonna stay with my line of logic, and vote skrammen. I cant believe more people are not on him given his VERY little content, and insta bandwagon vote. Best case scenario: town votes GiygaS, and he flips scum. We got reason to trust one another and the hunt is in full swing. worst case: GiygaS flips green, and we have lots of suspicions. Very good chance of Mafia breaking up trust and getting us to turn on one another. good no mater what: voting Skrammen. we get ride of a terrible player, and we get a possible read on Mataza. I chose this one. Eather way, Im happy with day one. ##Vote: Skrammen Alright, this is where he finally casts his vote. His reasoning is similar to mine but there is a big... no... huge difference in the methodology. Which is what felt so alarming to me. Hiro wants to lynch Skrammen because it's safe. I want to threaten to lynch inactives to get them to post. (once again I refer to my promise of switching a vote toward Giyg if we got everyone posting). The entire point of voting inactives is not to lynch them, it's to get them to defend themselves. Hiro just... ignores that and goes straight for the kill. Hopefully saving his partner in crime. This is alarming. This is incriminating. ##Vote: Hiro Protagonist | ||
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Hiro Protagonist and my vote should have been bolded: ##Vote: Hiro Protagonist Sorry about that. | ||
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I meant to stop arguing with you... Look at the situation from my point of view. Skrammen was under heavy fire and he was about to get lynched, yet he hadn't provided any solid analysis or even attempted to reason. He knew why he was getting lynched, and he knew why he was getting lynched. Yet he failed to contribute anything. Bandwagoning him would have been against my methodology. I don't want to lynch inactives. Voting for GiygaS would also have been against my methodology, I want to use votes to force posting. GiygaS didn't need any encouragement to post. I have no illusion that I will be able to convince you that you're wrong. You have made up your mind, and anything I say will be twisted in your mind because you're reading my posts in the mindset I am scum. | ||
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On May 19 2011 21:58 VisceraEyes wrote: All of my opinions and theories are based on my analysis of the situation...I don't dislike you, as I don't know you. I didn't appreciate the comments you made to prplhz, but it's a far-shot to claim that my entire argument is based on simply 'Vis doesn't like me'. I've laid out all the facts and done the research. This is far more than I can say for you. EVERYTHING you've said from d1 can be grouped into 2 general catagories: "Why Inactives Are Bad for the Town" and "Why Everyone In Town Should Do The Opposite of What They Think They SHOULD Do" It's pretty apparent that you're now grasping at straws to save yourself, so I won't waste time trying to convince you of why you're coming off as very VERY guilty to me anymore. I'll focus instead on trying to find your accomplice. Cool, I think it's good that we two just back off each other and let the town decide. It's not beneficial for anyone that two townies shout foul at each other while the scum sits back and relaxes. | ||
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On May 20 2011 00:54 DeepBlu2 wrote: Hiro gave an explanation how he screwed up and was an error on his part to offvote Glygas. Could you provide a link to this explanation. I re-read from the lynch, but really couldn't find it. Are you perhaps confusing Nard with Hiro? Because Nard created a pretty substantial post with his thoughts. | ||
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Being wrong is not a crime. I mean... I failed day one when I said exactly the same thing about GiygaS, but I still stand by my notion that people who post frantically don't need to be policy lynched. And VisEyes is obviously trying a bit harder than GiygaS was. I mean, I already stated, there is plenty of things that point towards both myself and purplehaze, I refer to my analysis of what the death of Karshe accomplished for the mafia. I wish Vis would look beyond the obivous, but alas... he's annoying, but not dangerous. At least for now. I will not support a policy lynch on VisEyes. @DeepBlu2: Here's the thing. Your calm and cool response to my accusations last night, followed by your insight in voting GiygaS very early on has led me to believe you are one of my safest bets for a townie in this game. I am very much looking forward to hearing your analysis. Both the targets you intended to analyse are of great interest. I already found very suspicious stuff about Hiro, and I'm curious if you reach the same conclusion. Please continue posting actively. | ||
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Do not roleclaim under any circumstances. Will explain later, I'm busy at the moment. | ||
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First of all: Do not roleclaim. Here is what will happen if a cop claims: Mafia immediately knows the setup. If they have a roleblocker, they know there is a doctor too. If they don't have a roleblocker, they know there is no doctor. a) If they do have a roleblocker, they'll just roleblock the cop until the end of the game, making it useless. b) If they don't have a roleblocker, they know there is no doctor, so they just.... shoot the cop. The only situation a roleclaim is advisable, is if the cop actually found Mafia. And even then it'd be better to simply go back, read the post of whoever they found to be scum, and try to get them lynched the old way. | ||
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Didn't Mataza claim to be an experienced player? Is there a chance this unhelpful roleclaim idea wasn't a simple mistake, but an elaborate plan? I was pretty sure Mataza wasn't one of the people I had to really analyse, but I guess I might have to spend some time re-reading his stuff. | ||
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did you go back and check Wunder? I am very interested in what an analysis of him might reveal. | ||
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It should be clear to everyone by now that Mataza's plan for having blue roles reveal themselves would not benefit anyone but the mafia. The logic is simple enough ( http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=9347746 <--- for anyone that's interested), and no one ought to have any trouble seeing why the plan is bad. But this is after all a newbie game, shouldn't we expect a bad idea with good intentions? This was my initial reaction to his plan, thus I simply corrected it and moved on. I would've expected to be done with the issue, but there are two things that keep nagging me. First is that Mataza kept pushing his plan, even after the critical flaws in it had been pointed out. If the mistake was just a miscalculation, he'd have seen it refuted, and stopped it. The other thing that really bugs me is that Mataza seems to have some experience playing mafia, so he's the last person in town I'd expect to fall to such simple logical errors. Even further, Mataza is doing some blatantly anti-town things in his latest posts. Check out this one for example: On May 20 2011 12:00 Mataza wrote: Nope, this is what I did all game. You might remember back on day 1 when I put FoS on you for a couple hours. I dropped, as you also may remember. Because you are quite obvious green. And yes, Doctor didn´t claim but I KNOW WHO HE IS, because I have awesome observational skills. Why on earth would you post that you know who the doctor is? The same information is available to everyone, so now the mafia will go back, read the thread again and try to find whatever you found and expose our doctor. It does not help the town in any way that you're telling us you know who the doctor is. It doesn't further our purpose and it only creates confusion. My problem is that I had no scum read on Mataza before this incident. Even his randomness during day 1 seemed to be pretty town oriented, but this thing is definitely bad for town. I can't possibly see how pushing a bad plan might be good for town... except if he's hoping mafia jumps on his plan or something... Surprisingly enough, there is one person I'd really like to hear speak about the incident and the issue, and that is VisEyes. Assuming you followed up: On May 20 2011 10:01 VisceraEyes wrote: Maybe you can call us all sheep today too. -.- And I had just about cleared you in my mind. Back to page 3 I guess. *weep* Did you find anything of interest once you read Mataza's posts from the point of view that he was an experienced scum trying to lead the town awry? I just can't find any justification from a town point of view for what Mataza is doing right about now. | ||
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On May 21 2011 04:42 prplhz wrote: If I am lynched today and I flip green you should lynch Mataza on day3, no matter what kind of defense he puts up. After that I would look at hiro protagonist and nard, one of which will probably be the last scum. If I flip red then you will obviously be in a good spot. prplhz already answered that VisEyes. | ||
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I don't know about skrammen, steffastiq, nard, prplhz I'm very suspicious of hiro, mataza and wunder | ||
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If you do manage to get me lynched VisEyes, make sure you pick the right allies to follow through with. | ||
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My effiort for a hiro lynch seems to not be going anywhere. Deepblu2 is the other person I trust, and he voted for purplehaze, but between the two, I'm inclined to think Mataza's destructive behavior regarding the blue roles smells more of scum, than purplehaze's randomness. One thing I'm almost certain of, is that they're not both mafia. I have strong cases against both wunder and hiro protagonist, and I think one of those two must definitely be scum. Which one do you think is more likely to be scum? I want to say Mataza, but hiro voted for him which is something I find very suspicious, and is a reason for me to stay awake until the lynching so I can help counter any last-minute switches. | ||
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I have two reasons to believe DeepBlu2 is town-side. First, I accused him in day 1. He did not overreact to the accusation but instead calmly collected his thoughts and analysed the potential scum. Second, his analysis in the first day was correct. He was the first person to actually cast a vote against GiygaS, and he did not change it from there. His entire play seems consistent and town oriented, if a little inactive. If DeepBlu2 is mafia, he is at least playing a very well covered game. | ||
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One of the best scum-tells is that scum tend to overreact to accusation. Obviously the scum knows this, so they will try to stay calm when accused, but you can often pick up little signs of panic in even well constructed responses. One more thing DeepBlu2 did well, when he mistakenly said that hiro had explained himself, and I corrected him, he just accepted the correction and moved on. Mataza however seems intent on not getting corrected. Unwillingness to change your opinion is bad for the town. | ||
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On May 21 2011 10:44 stefftastiq wrote: of those three mataza are the one i least believe is mafia - so it would be no problem saving his lynch for later giving him more time to prove he is not. This is a very good point, I've been trying to spread the word, but to no avail. I'm glad someone understands it. Finding inactive mafia is always more important than finding active mafia, because it's so much easier to analyse someone that has 100 posts, than someone that has 3 posts. | ||
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Well that's one of my big problems with the Mataza lynch. He's either bad townie or mafia. If he's bad townie you can't read too much into the votes casted against him, because while I haven't voted for him myself, I fully understand anyone that makes the decision to vote for him. So yeah, I'm worried that this lynch will not give us enough information. | ||
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The mafia would never have been able to guess he'd set himself up so nicely. I have much more interest in the people who switched their votes to Mataza after he painted that target on his ass. The problem is that there's also townies who simply voted him because he was doing bad stuff for the town... which is not a bad idea! I would advise everyone to step up their activity in the thread. There are several people in the game that have yet to be analysed, and I think it's healthy for the town to get discussion going on every possible scum candidate. Another thing we should do is have a look back at is Mataza's posts. They may not be correct, but remember that he is now a confirmed townie, so we know everything he said was said with honest intentions. | ||
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You were never in any danger of dying VisEyes. As long as you keep up the crusade to get me lynched you're providing a great distraction. Just to quickly summarize. Your current argument against me is that I did not switch my vote day 1. But I wonder, where should I have switched my vote to? If I went for skrammen, I would be ensuring (remember, that at this point prplhz hadn't switched his vote) the death of an inactive, which I've told you countless times is not my goal. The other option was to go after someone who was really loud. At the time I didn't know he was a mafia. Here's the post where I explained to Mataza my reasoning for not switching to GiygaS. I honestly believed back then that everyone in the game would eventually step up and provide content. On May 18 2011 02:23 Palmar wrote: I want to keep him because I'm not afraid of him. What I'm afraid of is going into day two with very little or no information about half the players in the game. How on earth are you going to analyse who is mafia amongst the people that have hardly said anything so far in the game? Any information is better than no information. This is why I don't want to just let everyone bandwagon you in the first place, and then Gyig now. I want one of the people that aren't contributing against the wall. This is very much true. But I'd rather have to filter through tons of bad information injected by mafia, than having no information at all and just playing a guessing game. Actually, here's a promise for you, if everyone comes into the thread, contributes and makes good analysis of the situation, I will switch my vote to GiygaS and help you get him lynched. In hindsight, I of course wish I had listened to Mataza, because then I probably would be busy hunting scum rather than explaining why I am not one. Anyway, I'm much more interested in breaking down Mataza's lynch and DeepBlu2's death. | ||
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You are the one that did the original analysis on DeepBlu2. Your conclusion may have been wrong, but your effort is still valid. Re-do your analysis, adding in everything DeepBlu2 said from the point you accused him until the point where he got killed, and look at it all from the point of view we now know that DeepBlu2 was innocent. As for myself, I will be working on an analysis on prplhz. While I can't be certain he's guilty at the moment, when I go back and re-read the thread, knowing Mataza and DeepBlu2 had honest intentions and both accused prplhz, I feel there is desperate need to re-visit his entire posting history. Perhaps he's just unlucky, perhaps he got set up. But perhaps his lack of accusation towards myself has blinded me to his true intentions. It seems like a very dangerous thing to do... accusing prplhz. Mataza and DeepBlu2 paid with their lives. | ||
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I'm sorry, but this will be very, very long. I suggest you read everything in here. Prplhz - Well played sir, but the jig is up. ------------------------------------------------ Analysis of prplhz: As prplhz has created a significant number of post, I will only include those I consider relevant to my analysis. So, after quickly stating he was new, and asking some technical questions. This is the first post he voices a solid opinion. On May 17 2011 00:35 prplhz wrote: I kinda have to agree with Mataza, lets stop the blaming until everybody has posted once or twice. People should instead maybe just say how they're going to try to play out this first day. According to Mataza's math we need to kill a scum in the first 3 days which is a lot of time to get to know each other and I will probably be voting for those I am most unsure of, which will be those with least real content in their posts. But really, I don't think that people should blame anybody too much after the first 10 posts 'cause there's no real basis for it. Most of this post is just fluff. He seems to want to go for inactives at this point. He is really careful in his wording, telling us to not blame anyone. This may be a newbie mistake, but I think most of us are aware that the best way to get people to slip is to put pressure on them. + Show Spoiler + On May 17 2011 09:26 prplhz wrote: Sup guys Right now I am mainly suspecting Mataza, mainly because of something that Mataza said early on: Now this statement could very well be benign but it is doing two things: degrading the town to diminish people's confidence in their ability to play this game (overestimate) making them more susceptible to get influenced by someone (himself) and setting himself up as a "leader" of the town (my town). I do not know why Mataza is trying to set himself up as a leader of the town but there are two scenarios: 1. He's a scum: He wants to control people and mislead them to vote for innocent people and keep the mafia save. 2. He's a townie: He wants to control people and lead to to vote for guilty scum and keep the town save. Either way he is trying to be a "leader" of the town and this in itself is bad. A town should never have a leader and should instead have people thinking very independently forming their own opinion, this should happen through discussion and activity of course. Mataza is very savvy and probably knows that having a leader is not good for a town, so why is he trying to set himself up to be one? This is a question that everybody should ask themselves. Now stuff that might talk against this: First: Mataza is actually not pointing fingers at anybody, I think we should be very careful if he ever decides to "lead" "his town" to vote for someone. Second (as pointed out by Mataza himself): If he is trying to lead this town as a scum would lead it we would quickly find out (we would lynch innocent people). And since we can afford losing people, trading a townie (guy Mataza would want to lynch) for a scum (Mataza) is really a good deal for the town. Maybe he is setting himself and the mafia up for mid/late game? This is a question that everybody should ask themselves. Other than that I think that all the debate around Mataza is hurting the town (we are not talking about someone else). So to stop this I am going to talk about someone else: VisceraEyes and GiygaS It is very hard for me to argue against VisceraEyes and GiygaS because I am also suspicious of Mataza. This is very hard because, while these two guys have been on Mataza's back the whole time they claim that it has been for the sake of activity. This has worked alright since these three guys are arguably the most contributing players in this game right now so their claimed plans have worked out well. But why are they not directing any of this activity against each other? This is a question that everybody should ask themselves. This gets even harder to analyze because there are two of them and thus several scenarios: Two townies being suspicious of someone? Two scums targetting an innocent townie? Or maybe the hardest scenario to deal with, one of each. I'm not going to go in depth with these scenarios, I will only present my initial conclusion: If they are scum they are not thinking long term, if they are mixed they will turn on each other, if they are townies ... Well as I said, I am also suspicious of Mataza A final note on nard (something that Mataza cleverly pointed out too, removing some of my suspicions of him): While this might be a whole new game for everybody it should not be hard for an innocent townie to write a simple "hello" post. Maybe nard is having a hard time writing his first post because he is a scum with a hidden agenda and then he is thinking that everybody else is having a hard time too? This is a question that everybody should ask themselves. So, this is a post where he accuses Mataza. It is quite interesting that he's jumping a bandwagon after VisEyes with GiygaS, based on some very frail reasoning. He also points a finger at nard, and thus agrees with me. He talks about how having leaders is dangerous for the town. At this point Mataza looks like the weakest person on the board, but we now know his weakness was because he wasn't afraid to stick his neck out. A few posts later hiro protagonist gives prplhz a pat on the back, and GiygaS claims he isn't suspicious at all. Since those three are my best guess for a mafia line-up at the moment, this looks suspicious to me. But obviously to anyone that doesn't agree with my Hiro read, it will look less suspicious. + Show Spoiler + On May 17 2011 21:48 prplhz wrote: Yo people I see that people have started voting now, around 16 hours before deadline. This is not good people. Unvoting is very suspucious and there is still plenty of time for people to provide material to analyze. Of course some claim to do it for the sake of discussion but I still think that this is very bad. In addition to this I do not think that any of these votes are currently well founded, they are wild accusations at best. I also think that it is bad that people have removed focus from Mataza. While he might not be scum this town has him very much under control. He is very active and has agreed to answer every question directed at him. These are very useful qualities for town to find in a player, no matter if he is scum or townie. We should have tried to use these qualities to hunt scum. I would love to have waited with this post until GiygaS next post but lets just go ahead and do some analysis. I do not think that Mataza is harmful for this town just yet. He is under control so far, I would like him to be more harmful for the Mafia though. So I ask this: @Mataza : With the information available to you now, who would you lynch if you should lynch the player you think is most likely to be Scum? So I'm going to go ahead and do something that VisceraEyes has done several time. Point fingers at some random person for the sake of discussion. And this random person is going to be VisceraEyes himself. Some reasons (so it's not entirely random who I am pointing fingers at) for this: 1. He was the first person who point fingers at others. While he might have done this for the sake of discussion, I think that mostly scum would do this early on in the game. Townies would consider how the other person might be a townie and how unfounded accusations might harm the town, even if you made it clear that they are unfounded. 2. He is often analyzing his own actions. This is something I think you would (should) mainly do when you are scum. There is nothing to fear as a townie, only thing you have to consider is how the town can benefit the most from your actions. While we would all like to survive this game I think this is done best by being honest and only analytical of the actions of potential scum. 3. He has just something I would deem crazy to do if you were a townie. He suddenly said "this guy I have been bashing all game long, maybe he's not scum so I'm just gonna vote for someone and provide very limited rationale for this". This is not only very scum-like in my eyes, it is also harmful to the town. @VisceraEyes : Do you think that it is beneficial for the town that you suddenly make a 180 in letting Mataza off the hook and go full force against stefftastiq? Another player who has struck me as harmful to the town is Palmar. He has recently used some very questionable rhetorics to defend Mataza, and while it might be good that Mataza is not lynched, questionable rhetorics are always harmful to town. But on the other hand he also appears to be a very strong player who the town can make good use of later on, so maybe it is just a question of getting him under control @Palmar : Why do you think Mataza is "innocent as a newborn baby"? Gutfeeling is not an acceptable answer Think that was it for now. I will try to vote around 4 hours before deadline. Finals notes on what I think all townies should currently be aware of: Lurking townies make it possible for scum to play lurker style too. I think everybody should get up and post some analysis, if you are a townie this is absolutely the best thing you can do. We still missing a couple of you but this is making the game very much harder for town! I would consider any of the prospective modkills (Skrammen, Wunder) showing up in the nick of time to cast crucial votes for the lynching VERY suspicious. Even if they decide to show up now I think they will be very harmful to town if they don't post a lot in a very short amount of time. It is very good to have people under control; the more they post the more we can ask questions and the more we can make ourselves sure that someone is scum/townie. We will probably have two modkills but maybe it will be beneficial to town to lynch one of the least active players, to set an example, to make the game more fun, to maybe hit a lurking scum! Oh yeah and GiygaS; my nick is "purple haze" without any vowels or spaces This is his infamous "control" post. He suddenly tries to do a 180 from Mataza to VisEyes. Others have already analysed this post to death, so I will not spend too much time on it. It suggests some questionable methods like keeping the town in check, which really is a bad idea because you need all the creativity you can get to spot the scum. And here's the problem. Prplhz already agreed with me on that it should be easy to make first posts, and here he calls me a strong player. This continues through-out the game, blinding me to his true intentions. + Show Spoiler + On May 18 2011 06:20 prplhz wrote: Maybe we cracked down too much on people trying to create drama 'cause I have to agree with Karshe that there is too little discussion going on. So I'm asking everybody (and that include you, person who is reading this now) to post who they would like to get lynched on day2 in case they themselves will get assassinated during the night. I think that I might be a target (hoping for a cute nurse to help me out though!) so this is probably quite relevant. This will be great for town, we can have you analytical skills readily available for day2 even if you get killed during the night! So let me say that I've cracked down a bit on the active people, but in the end I think I am going to vote for an inactive player because the evil you don't know is far more scary than the evil you do know! This will most likely only be for day1 though and I'm sure the scums already know that. So if they eliminate me it will be because they might be afraid that I will try to rally people to kill off someone who I think is a scum, and who is active. People who fit this description according to my posts so far are VisceraEyes and GiygaS, I said that if they turned on each other they would most likely be one scum, one good guy. So if I happen to get mafia killed on first night I think these are people you should really watch out for, but probably only one of them is scum! So what about you people, if you had to write a testament to the town today, what would it say? And by the way, I am going to write a vote post in around an hour, so it will be up before two hours. ((OOC: Oh and Palmar, no hard feelings about the "idiot" thing ))This is his first post that is really incriminating. I did not suspect prplhz at the point so I wanted to harshly call him out for his nurse call, which was... well... either really stupid or a scumtell. I stupidly ignored a very strong VisEyes analysis on prplhz at this point, because I felt it was too frail. Now I realize prplhz was already playing me on flattery. link to VisEyes's post: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=9313612 <-- everyone should read this. + Show Spoiler + On May 18 2011 07:35 prplhz wrote: Yea I'm gonna go ahead and vote now. ##Vote Skrammen Reason for this is that he just comes in 8 hours before day1 ends, casts and vote with 2 paragraphs of resonable and does not respond to our pleas that he post some more content. I am going to be honest with you and say that maybe he's not the one who is most likely to be scum but I think he's the most harmful for the town right now. If I should have voted for most likely to be scum I would vote for VisceraEyes for reasons I have already stated. Also his latest post is not really convincing me of anything else either. To answer the post VisceraEyes just made, the one that was mainly about me; No I don't control anybody Other than that I can't seem to find anything in your post I should need to comment on because mostly you're just saying that you disagree with what I said.Here is his Skrammen vote. After all he just went for an easy target, but the mafia must've realized later what weak position they'd have been in if the three of them all voted for Skrammen and got him lynched. He's very careful and doesn't full-out accuse VisEyes. On May 18 2011 07:55 Mataza wrote: The hell? You really think Skrammen is the best lynch? I can´t get my head around how anyone can think that. Also purples reasoning for that sounds a lot like giygas reasoning. He has posted only 2 paragraphs and already votes. Sounds eerily familiar to me. Especially if you consider that Giygas is just voting on some random inactive person and trying not to slip up. He is so silent all of a sudden. Including this because Mataza had honest intentions. He already spotted the similarities... the link between GiygaS and prplhz. On May 18 2011 08:10 Mataza wrote: prplhz will be top priority for the cop tonight, if we have a cop, that is. Another Mataza quote. Put yourselves in a position of the mafia. GiygaS was already under heavy suspicion at this point, and prplhz was getting heavily linked to him by one of the more analytical players in the game. I know I would've considered the gamble of throwing one under the bus to free another. On May 18 2011 10:55 prplhz wrote: Yea this may be a huge mistake but if I'm gonna make it, it is going to be in the first game. ##Unvote Skrammen ##Vote GiygaS My rationale: The whole "vote for skrammen" thing was never about him being scum, it was about him being inactive and voting out of the blue. I think that we are going to have a lot better read on VisceraEyes, Mataza and Skrammen if we flip GiygaS, while flipping Skrammen will really give us nothing. Inactive players have hopefully learned their lesson. Also I think it is very awesome that everybody voted, but it would be more awesome if everybody posted regularly too! If he does not flip red I think the VisceraEyes is the best bid for a scum next time. I'll probably be unavailable for the next 24 hours by way, and also for the first part of day1 but I will be here to answer questions just not to provide analysis. And here we are. Prplhz's one saving grace, one claim to fame in this game. This is where he won all his trust by gettin GiygaS lynched. I mean... it's obvious. Are we really going to lynch the person that ensured a mafia death on day1? But why did Mataza keep going after him, Why did VisceraEyes keep suspecting him, why did DeepBlu2 keep wanting him lynched? On May 19 2011 07:29 Mataza wrote: First: Analyze prplhz -His tone is very rational, yet he does an emotional response to giygas flipping scum. ("I can´t believe this.") -He looks methodical in his approach and suggests he is a high priority target for the nightkill, even after he has proven to have been pretty much useless up til now. Under that light, he increased his usefulness by voting for Giygas. Be very wary of him. I don´t have the time to analyze properly. The following night there are some exchanges between VisEyes and prplhz, both pointing fingers at each other. Mataza continues actually analysing the situation and reaching the conclusion that prplhz should still be under heavy suspicion. I ended up defending prplhz this night... Following this there is a fuckton of information and analysis done by both myself and VisEyes. He is certain that prplhz and I are the scum, and I try to defend both of us. Here's another analysis by Mataza: On May 20 2011 08:14 Mataza wrote: Also FoS prplhz. He still gives me a chaotic read. His behaviour overall seems a little.....off. Like he is planning spontaneous responses. He talks about leaders being obviously bad for town, while a few hours later talking about how good it is to have people under control. Literally. He doesn´t want to help lead the town, he only talks about control. + Show Spoiler + On May 17 2011 21:48 prplhz wrote: (Bladibla...) I also think that it is bad that people have removed focus from Mataza. While he might not be scum this town has him very much under control. He is very active and has agreed to answer every question directed at him. These are very useful qualities for town to find in a player, no matter if he is scum or townie. We should have tried to use these qualities to hunt scum. I would love to have waited with this post until GiygaS next post but lets just go ahead and do some analysis. I do not think that Mataza is harmful for this town just yet. He is under control so far, I would like him to be more harmful for the Mafia though. So I ask this: @Mataza : With the information available to you now, who would you lynch if you should lynch the player you think is most likely to be Scum? (Bladibla...) @VisceraEyes : Do you think that it is beneficial for the town that you suddenly make a 180 in letting Mataza off the hook and go full force against stefftastiq? Another player who has struck me as harmful to the town is Palmar. He has recently used some very questionable rhetorics to defend Mataza, and while it might be good that Mataza is not lynched, questionable rhetorics are always harmful to town. But on the other hand he also appears to be a very strong player who the town can make good use of later on, so maybe it is just a question of getting him under control (Bladibla...) It is very good to have people under control; the more they post the more we can ask questions and the more we can make ourselves sure that someone is scum/townie. We will probably have two modkills but maybe it will be beneficial to town to lynch one of the least active players, to set an example, to make the game more fun, to maybe hit a lurking scum! Oh yeah and GiygaS; my nick is "purple haze" without any vowels or spaces He mostly points out things that are bad or "harmful" for town, but never about things that actually help us. All that, while he goes out of his way and calls himself important enough to be the nightkill, because "they might be afraid that I will try to rally people". Him rallying people never looked probable or even possible to me. After rereading all his posts, there is only 2 explanations in my mind: 1) He is greatly holding back, while thinking he is absolutely invaluable. He doesn´t know in the least how he appears to the town 2) He is scum trying to be perceived as invaluable, a good analyst. With superior knowledge he has a deep understanding of what actually happens. But because he is Mafia, he cannot post why his maf buddies are suspicious. I really, really want to think he is town since he was quite active. It just doesn´t fit somehow. Day 2 is hell of a lot more frantic than day 1. There are loads of fingers pointing everywhere, so I will try to summarize it in order to keep this post a readable length. Mataza FoS'd prplhz quite heavily. VisEyes was unsure in what to do because his campaign against me didn't receive much support. He both defended and accused prplhz at points during day2. I attacked Mataza without voting him, and defended prplhz. Nard also defended prplhz. At some point prplhz claimed that he got roleblocked during the night. It is really interesting why he did not immediately claim this, because why on earth would you wait for such a long time if you're town? On May 20 2011 11:21 prplhz wrote: @VisceraEyes Uh his risky secret plan appeared to be very poor and he apparently assumed stuff that was not true. Palmar tore it apart and now he's suddenly on a crusade against me. I don't really know honestly, but I am not too worried. Even if he succeeds, which I very much doubt, the mafia is gonna have a very hard time. I think that 'Visceraness' is a good word to describe what he's doing right now. It almost seem like he's panicking. Here is another prplhz agree with me. I really got fooled by this shit. Everyone read this analysis by Mataza please: On May 21 2011 00:44 Mataza wrote: The big analysis of Prplhz Prplhz has been preceived as scummy day1. After Giygas flipped red, perceived suspicion against him dropped a whole lot, as we are seemingly back to hunting inactives. If I am right, he knew he was suspicious day 1. He also knew Giygas was even worse off. So he tried to make 2 bads into 1 good and voted Giygas off, so he is cleared off suspicion. 1) Now it has been enough time to relatively safely assume we have no cop in the game. If this is true, it means we have 1 doc and no roleblockers ingame. But prplhz claimed to have been roleblocked. + Show Spoiler + http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=222568¤tpage=19#364 On May 20 2011 08:36 prplhz wrote: Oh shit I need to do some roleblock discussion too. Right, Karshe got killed and I got blocked. We either have Doc+Cop or we have vanilla town. The scum has known this all along. Now Imagine this. Scum tried to block townie. Why on earth would they do that? Only makes sense if they are trying to do some mind games, but would it not be better to block someone other than me? Someone who is townie but who is acting scummy? Now imagine this: Scum tried to block Doc. If I am doc would their blocking me have helped in their assassination of Karshe? Not likely, I do not think I ever even mentioned Karshe before he was killed so why would they think I would try to save him? So scum tried to block Cop? What are your thoughts on this? My thought on this matter is he is Scum and there is no roleblock. He tried to distract us with talk about happy fun stuff like who the scum thinks is Doctor or Cop. That´s my stance on it. 2) Prplhz talks about leaders being obviously bad for town, while a few hours later talking about how good it is to have people under control. + Show Spoiler + http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=222568¤tpage=6#102 On May 17 2011 09:26 prplhz wrote: Sup guys Right now I am mainly suspecting Mataza, mainly because of something that Mataza said early on: Now this statement could very well be benign but it is doing two things: degrading the town to diminish people's confidence in their ability to play this game (overestimate) making them more susceptible to get influenced by someone (himself) and setting himself up as a "leader" of the town (my town). I do not know why Mataza is trying to set himself up as a leader of the town but there are two scenarios: 1. He's a scum: He wants to control people and mislead them to vote for innocent people and keep the mafia save. 2. He's a townie: He wants to control people and lead to to vote for guilty scum and keep the town save. Either way he is trying to be a "leader" of the town and this in itself is bad. A town should never have a leader and should instead have people thinking very independently forming their own opinion, this should happen through discussion and activity of course. Mataza is very savvy and probably knows that having a leader is not good for a town, so why is he trying to set himself up to be one? This is a question that everybody should ask themselves. Now stuff that might talk against this: First: Mataza is actually not pointing fingers at anybody, I think we should be very careful if he ever decides to "lead" "his town" to vote for someone. Second (as pointed out by Mataza himself): If he is trying to lead this town as a scum would lead it we would quickly find out (we would lynch innocent people). And since we can afford losing people, trading a townie (guy Mataza would want to lynch) for a scum (Mataza) is really a good deal for the town. Maybe he is setting himself and the mafia up for mid/late game? This is a question that everybody should ask themselves. Other than that I think that all the debate around Mataza is hurting the town (we are not talking about someone else). So to stop this I am going to talk about someone else: VisceraEyes and GiygaS It is very hard for me to argue against VisceraEyes and GiygaS because I am also suspicious of Mataza. This is very hard because, while these two guys have been on Mataza's back the whole time they claim that it has been for the sake of activity. This has worked alright since these three guys are arguably the most contributing players in this game right now so their claimed plans have worked out well. But why are they not directing any of this activity against each other? This is a question that everybody should ask themselves. (Bladibla...) While this might be a whole new game for everybody it should not be hard for an innocent townie to write a simple "hello" post. Maybe nard is having a hard time writing his first post because he is a scum with a hidden agenda and then he is thinking that everybody else is having a hard time too? This is a question that everybody should ask themselves. Note that he also likes us to ask ourself questions, derailing from the important things. http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=222568¤tpage=7#129 On May 17 2011 21:48 prplhz wrote: (Bladibla...) I also think that it is bad that people have removed focus from Mataza. While he might not be scum this town has him very much under control. He is very active and has agreed to answer every question directed at him. These are very useful qualities for town to find in a player, no matter if he is scum or townie. We should have tried to use these qualities to hunt scum. I would love to have waited with this post until GiygaS next post but lets just go ahead and do some analysis. I do not think that Mataza is harmful for this town just yet. He is under control so far, I would like him to be more harmful for the Mafia though. So I ask this: @Mataza : With the information available to you now, who would you lynch if you should lynch the player you think is most likely to be Scum? (Bladibla...) @VisceraEyes : Do you think that it is beneficial for the town that you suddenly make a 180 in letting Mataza off the hook and go full force against stefftastiq? Another player who has struck me as harmful to the town is Palmar. He has recently used some very questionable rhetorics to defend Mataza, and while it might be good that Mataza is not lynched, questionable rhetorics are always harmful to town. But on the other hand he also appears to be a very strong player who the town can make good use of later on, so maybe it is just a question of getting him under control (Bladibla...) It is very good to have people under control; the more they post the more we can ask questions and the more we can make ourselves sure that someone is scum/townie. We will probably have two modkills but maybe it will be beneficial to town to lynch one of the least active players, to set an example, to make the game more fun, to maybe hit a lurking scum! Oh yeah and GiygaS; my nick is "purple haze" without any vowels or spaces Where did this sudden change come from? 3) Voting affairs. His last 3 posts before his vote:+ Show Spoiler + http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=222568¤tpage=8#148 On May 18 2011 03:11 prplhz wrote: @Skrammen Hi, could you please, in a very short while, provide A LOT more content for us to analyze? I was kinda hoping you would get modkilled.http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=222568¤tpage=8#152 On May 18 2011 06:20 prplhz wrote: Maybe we cracked down too much on people trying to create drama 'cause I have to agree with Karshe that there is too little discussion going on. So I'm asking everybody (and that include you, person who is reading this now) to post who they would like to get lynched on day2 in case they themselves will get assassinated during the night. I think that I might be a target (hoping for a cute nurse to help me out though!) so this is probably quite relevant. This will be great for town, we can have you analytical skills readily available for day2 even if you get killed during the night! So let me say that I've cracked down a bit on the active people, but in the end I think I am going to vote for an inactive player because the evil you don't know is far more scary than the evil you do know! This will most likely only be for day1 though and I'm sure the scums already know that. So if they eliminate me it will be because they might be afraid that I will try to rally people to kill off someone who I think is a scum, and who is active. People who fit this description according to my posts so far are VisceraEyes and GiygaS, I said that if they turned on each other they would most likely be one scum, one good guy. So if I happen to get mafia killed on first night I think these are people you should really watch out for, but probably only one of them is scum! So what about you people, if you had to write a testament to the town today, what would it say? And by the way, I am going to write a vote post in around an hour, so it will be up before two hours. ((OOC: Oh and Palmar, no hard feelings about the "idiot" thing ))http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=222568¤tpage=8#160 On May 18 2011 07:35 prplhz wrote: Yea I'm gonna go ahead and vote now. ##Vote Skrammen Reason for this is that he just comes in 8 hours before day1 ends, casts and vote with 2 paragraphs of resonable and does not respond to our pleas that he post some more content. I am going to be honest with you and say that maybe he's not the one who is most likely to be scum but I think he's the most harmful for the town right now. If I should have voted for most likely to be scum I would vote for VisceraEyes for reasons I have already stated. Also his latest post is not really convincing me of anything else either. To answer the post VisceraEyes just made, the one that was mainly about me; No I don't control anybody Other than that I can't seem to find anything in your post I should need to comment on because mostly you're just saying that you disagree with what I said.More importantly notice how Giygas votes within 10 minutes of Prplhz.+ Show Spoiler + http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=222568¤tpage=8#157 On May 18 2011 07:25 GiygaS wrote: Hello everyone! On the subject of me having 3 votes, I'm more worried about who could slip by. Namely Skrammen. Skrammen hasn't posted at all until suddenly, he burst on the scene: Announcing his business the last few days very vaguely, Then jumps on the current trend of voting for me, without any reasoning behind doing so. This seems very dangerous to me, so I'm going to vote for him for the same reason that prplhz has reasoned: an evil unknown is far greater then a known one. ##Vote Skrammen First of all, this is out of character for Giygas. He somehow used great parts of prplhz reasoning before prplhz used it. Coincidence? I think not. Prplhz has been whispering into Giygas ear to write exactly that. And at the end, like I said at the beginning, Prplhz changed his vote. + Show Spoiler + http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=222568¤tpage=11#220 On May 18 2011 10:55 prplhz wrote: Yea this may be a huge mistake but if I'm gonna make it, it is going to be in the first game. ##Unvote Skrammen ##Vote GiygaS My rationale: The whole "vote for skrammen" thing was never about him being scum, it was about him being inactive and voting out of the blue. I think that we are going to have a lot better read on VisceraEyes, Mataza and Skrammen if we flip GiygaS, while flipping Skrammen will really give us nothing. Inactive players have hopefully learned their lesson. Also I think it is very awesome that everybody voted, but it would be more awesome if everybody posted regularly too! If he does not flip red I think the VisceraEyes is the best bid for a scum next time. I'll probably be unavailable for the next 24 hours by way, and also for the first part of day1 but I will be here to answer questions just not to provide analysis. http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=222568¤tpage=12#235 A little short, no? I thought we wanted to get answers. Why would you be shocked *at all* at giygas flipping red? You don´t know who mafia is, so you kinda suspect everyone. The solution: Prplhz puts up an act. This short answer is saying "I did not expect Giygas to be red" On the other hand, he put the nail in the coffin and cast the final vote on Giygas. A clear contradiction. 4) Little things. Example a: A long post that talks about Viscera and Giygas turning on each other. Did this happen? I can´t remember that this happened at all. He also talked about him being a target for the nightkill, because he "has been rallying people" all day. I did not notice any of his rallying. + Show Spoiler + http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=222568¤tpage=8#152 On May 18 2011 06:20 prplhz wrote: Maybe we cracked down too much on people trying to create drama 'cause I have to agree with Karshe that there is too little discussion going on. So I'm asking everybody (and that include you, person who is reading this now) to post who they would like to get lynched on day2 in case they themselves will get assassinated during the night. I think that I might be a target (hoping for a cute nurse to help me out though!) so this is probably quite relevant. This will be great for town, we can have you analytical skills readily available for day2 even if you get killed during the night! So let me say that I've cracked down a bit on the active people, but in the end I think I am going to vote for an inactive player because the evil you don't know is far more scary than the evil you do know! This will most likely only be for day1 though and I'm sure the scums already know that. So if they eliminate me it will be because they might be afraid that I will try to rally people to kill off someone who I think is a scum, and who is active. People who fit this description according to my posts so far are VisceraEyes and GiygaS, I said that if they turned on each other they would most likely be one scum, one good guy. So if I happen to get mafia killed on first night I think these are people you should really watch out for, but probably only one of them is scum! So what about you people, if you had to write a testament to the town today, what would it say? And by the way, I am going to write a vote post in around an hour, so it will be up before two hours. ((OOC: Oh and Palmar, no hard feelings about the "idiot" thing ))+ Show Spoiler + http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=222568¤tpage=21 On May 20 2011 11:09 prplhz wrote: Hey I just want to clarify that what GiygaS said after his lynching should NOT be considered by anybody as evidence of anything. The game ends when you die but as the rules state you can make a GG post and that's what GiygaS did. It is very unfortunate that he did not stop his sentence 3 words and a smiley earlier but I am sure that he did not mean anything by it. I'll post more analysis later but I'm always up for questions directed at me. My guess is that Giygas should have said something different. Nobody else cares about this little quip. I see no reason to even read something into that. So why does Prplhz do? If you read Prplhz post history, look especially for him asking questions that derail us away from the question who is mafia. He often goes to "why would mafia do this" and other stuff. He especially talk often about things being harmful to town, but he never spoke about something being good for town. That is a scumtell, known along the line of "bashing bad ideas but never bringing forth any good ideas". Prplhz is scum. I am as convinced as I was with Giygas. My vote stays ##vote Prplhz Help me help you help win the game. And another post from Mataza On May 21 2011 10:57 Mataza wrote: @Viscera I wish you luck going into day 3. @Palmar Your fear got the better of you. You should step up your game dramatically. @Prplhz I hope you die next. With this little interest from town, you might have already won. If our blue role was a vigilante, I could see why he is important. I cannot understand why Doctor did what he did. But the COP is only good if he works with the town before he dies without saying a word. GG On May 21 2011 11:43 DeepBlu2 wrote: You guys are retarded. Please listen to me. I said not to lynch him and to lynch purplehaze. Mataza has done nothing but help the town and I don't understand why you guys would lynch him. I honestly just gave up hope and I don't if I can provide analysis if you guys will just ignore it and make a bad decision. Vis, I'm incredibly dissapointed in you for being a frontrunner as well as the others. You decreased our chances of winning significantly. And here DeepBlu2, who has been very quiet, voiced his strong opinion that prplhz should have been the one hanging. He paid with his life that night. Day 3 begins with prplhz doing two analyses without actually reaching a conclusion that one of them if mafia or town. Just two more really careful posts about two people who might or might not be mafia in his eyes. No reason to anger anyone when you're about to get under heavy suspicion, I guess! And then finally, look at this: On May 23 2011 07:23 prplhz wrote: @VisceraEyes I think this is very weird because I'm like 98% sure that you're townie, and like 90% sure that Palmar is townie. So I think it is very weird that you're going at us like you are. But I've noticed that Palmar is clearly better at this game than I am and I want town to win so I'm gonna propose that you vote for me instead of Palmar, and then if I flip green you don't go for Palmar after me but instead work with him to find the remaining scum. This is not ideal as I'd like to be here all game but I think maybe it's the only way to convince you. And it's too late if you're convinced that you're not right AFTER you lynch Palmar because then I think town will have lost one of it's best players and that can't happen (again!). So I'd like you to consider either voting for me instead of Palmar and encouraging others to do so too, or to drop your silly crusade because as Mataza said before he died, Palmar is not scum. I might be but Palmar sure isn't. That's what he said VisceraEyes and I can find the quote if you don't believe me. This is what finally got me, and convinced me. prplhz is really advocating a lynch on himself over me? It's never a good idea to suggest a self-lynch as townie, because that way you're not mafia. This is him trying to overcompensate for the suspicions by claiming he's willing to take the axe "for the good of the town" And once again, he's buying my friendship with trust. I won't fall to that anymore, I'm not going to let VisEyes's crusade against me blind me again, like Mataza pointed out to me before his death. Let's not screw this up again guys. I apologize. prplhz has been playing me like a fool this entire game. ##Vote: prplhz | ||
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It's never a good idea to suggest a self-lynch as townie, because that way you're not mafia. This should of course read: because that way you're not LYNCHING mafia | ||
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VisceraEyes Palmar Skrammen Stefftastiq Nard Wunder prplhz Hiro Protagonist It'll take something colossal (bigger than Mataza's roleclaim idea) to change my mind from this point. | ||
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On May 23 2011 10:04 hiro protagonist wrote: Im going to go back through the game and see what I can dig up. I am gonna be looking at anyone who was suspicious of prplhz after day 1. I see no reason why his vote on day 1 doesn't make him a 100% townie. The only thing I can think of is if Skrammen is also Mafia, witch would make sense to vote of the suspicious scum in favor of the less suspicious. I ask that any one else to give me another reason why prplhz is mafia if they have a reason. i would be intrigued to hear. I see prplhz still has some allies... | ||
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1 hiro Stefftastiq (prplhz - hasn't voted, but presumably will be voting here) 1 palmar Wunder 2 prplhz Palmar VisEyes | ||
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I agree with you on Hiro Protagonist. Do you think I'm wrong on prplhz? I have no problem with voting for Hiro tonight. But I think we should try to align our votes so that we don't give the one we agree on a chance to escape. Prplhz seems to be the brain behind their plan, so killing him first makes sense to me. GMarshal: Are dead mafia allowed to keep communicating with their fellow mafia? But if Skrammen/Nard are more comfortable with killing hiro, and VisEyes agrees to switch, we can do that. Just remember it's 6 town v 2 mafia. This means we need 5 votes to ensure majority, and I don't see much help coming from Wunder. | ||
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My analysis of prplhz is largely based on Mataza's analysis... and his last post said that he wanted prplhz dead. So yeah... | ||
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On May 24 2011 10:40 hiro protagonist wrote: im here, I just cant decide... Trying to decide if you should bandwagon to try to buy safety or if you should vote me? | ||
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I kinda wanted to switch too... Hiro was always my original mafia candidate. Main reason I went for prplhz was Mataza and DeepBlu2. Guess we were all wrong. Sucks, see you tomorrow. | ||
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Prplhz wouldn't have been lying about being roleblocked twice, so the set-up is either one of those. Seeing how the game is flowing, I'm leaning towards 9 vanillas... | ||
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I kind of lead the crusade against prplhz this time, which really sucks. VisEyes really wants to lynch me, that's his main crusade. Hiro Protagonist has a pretty damn impressive voting record. He voted Skrammen on day 1, he voted Mataza on day 2 and he voted prplhz on day 3, despite claiming he was sure prplhz wasn't mafia. I did an analysis on the guy back on day 2, I guess I should've pushed his lynch harder at the time, but it seems like this town has a taste for active blood, so aside from stefftastiq I found it really hard to get much support. That and I will admit VisEyes's constant crusade against me has been really distracting. But it kinda fits... I couldn't place Wunder anywhere because his behavior was so damn scummy, yet I already had hiro and prplhz lined up as mafia. Looks like we know who the mafia is now. If I should not survive the night, I want you to take a really good long look at Hiro Protagonist. Nard saw it, I saw it, stefftastiq saw it and prplhz saw it. We just seem really keen on lynching active players versus passive players.... and look where that has gotten us. | ||
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Then he pulled some really silly "I'll martyr myself instead of Palmar" thing, and I was just... why on earth would you do that as townie? It just makes no sense. So yeah, bad read. The Mafia are Hiro and Wunder. If you don't believe me, just go through their post history. I would do an analysis on Wunder, but there's nothing to analyse. He's just been chilling and doing nothing while the we happily kill off outspoken players like Mataza and prplhz. I don't even care anymore, I'm not listening to some meta-game bullshit anymore. I will be crusading so hard on Hiro's ass tomorrow that he will feel sore for days. If I die during the night, well you know what happened. | ||
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On May 24 2011 11:16 hiro protagonist wrote: "you see, you SEE" - copyright held by Sen. ok, now that what I thought all along is for everyone else to see, lets move forward. If there are blue roles out there, then we know you have never been role blocked and there are 2 of you. or, more likely at this point, all townies. lets see what the night brings and start anew. So, you contribute to a lynch to a townie, meanwhile saying that you don't see anything scummy about him, you just don't want to vote against town. And then you come to us and say "I told you so". This is just a silly parade to try to reduce suspicion on yourself. | ||
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On May 25 2011 01:45 sinani206 wrote: This is my second game--I died in XXXIX It's ok, you're not scum. | ||
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We're pretty much all first-timers, so errors are to be expected. The problem is that we keep analysing the few people that actually contributed to the thread, and thus we lynch useful townies day after day. I mean, there is no question that Mataza's plan was pretty bad, and that prplhz's martyrdom was not the most intelligent thing to do. But the thing is, the people that don't post, don't make any of those mistakes. I'm pretty sure you're town at the moment, but it really bothers me how passive you were at the start of the game. That's just destructive behavior. I don't see no problem with VisEyes suggesting we take a look at you. Mind you, if the mafia successfully gets a kill tonight, it'll be 4 town v 2 mafia, so it only takes one townie to make the wrong decision, and it's game over. I'm going to write up my thoughts, in case I die during the night. | ||
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One more person might die before day breaks, so that'll bring it down to 4v2. That's basically a LYLO situation, meaning we need a correct lynch, or we're pretty much dead, barring a doctor save. And we don't even know if there is a doctor in the game. This also means, that we might be in a situation where the 4 townies need to vote together to get rid of mafia. It only takes 1 townie betting on the wrong lynch for us to simply lose the game. My first lynch candidate it Hiro Protagonist. It is absolutely vital that the four townies that survive through the night vote for him. He will shout foul, and he will try to paint someone else a target. Possibly me or VisEyes because there is a ton of posts by both of us that can be analysed and made to look "scummy". Here is a link to an analysis I did on Hiro: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=9339175 Before reading on, I suggest you take a good hard look at this post. All the way from day 1 Hiro has been acting scummy. Let's look at his voting record, for all it means. 09:48 hiro protagonist -> Skrammen 09:56 Wunder -> Skrammen 10:08 nard -> Skrammen This is from Deepblu2's analysis of votes after day 1. He, along with two other people voted for Skrammen in a very short timeframe. I don't think nard (sinai) is scum, but it's worth looking at for later. But I'm absolutely sure hiro is scum. here is his post where he votes Mataza: On May 21 2011 08:26 hiro protagonist wrote: Ok, I am at work, so I dont have a lot of time to explain my vote, but here it go's: Mataza has been less then helpful day 2. there is so much scumminiss going on with his actions that i dont have time to point them all out. i will just point out a few. 1. He used his trust that he built with the town to try to get people to rolecall blue roles, and as everyone pointed out, thats a very bad idea for us, great for mafia, who are behind. 2. He wants to lynch prplhz. Really? the guy who's very last minute vote switch got us a scum lynch on day one in very dramatic fashion? 3. before prplhz vote switch, GiygaS was safe. This could have been planned between them both, with Mataza looking like a townie. Im gonna put my money on Mataza is S to the scummy ummy. ##Vote Mataza So yeah, while I still think Mataza's roleclaim idea was pretty stupid, His reasoning is basically just bandwagoning what everyone else has said. But this is not the most incriminating thing he did. Here is something that really should be looked at. This is from day 3, just before I post my long analysis on prplhz On May 23 2011 10:04 hiro protagonist wrote: @Prplhz My questions directed at Mataza in regards to the blue role incident where ones of genuine interest. when he first started hinting at it (and he did a LOT of hinting) I did not pay much attention to them because I thought he was still doing what he was doing all game long; throwing out hooks every where and waiting till someone responded. seamed like thats what he was doing. But then he actual stated a plan, and one that did not make sense to me. I wanted him to elaborate, before anyone cried blue, but I was willing to here him out. luckily for us, both ViscaraEyes and Palmar voiced there concerns and explained why it was a bad idea. I was especially worried about this post: he was asking for people to claim up before really explaining how it would help for town. not good in my eyes. As for your thoughts on if he thought I was a doc, well, I dont no if i'm reading to much into it but, 2 minutes after my first post during night 1: this, after all ready asking for doc protection. Im going to go back through the game and see what I can dig up. I am gonna be looking at anyone who was suspicious of prplhz after day 1. I see no reason why his vote on day 1 doesn't make him a 100% townie. The only thing I can think of is if Skrammen is also Mafia, witch would make sense to vote of the suspicious scum in favor of the less suspicious. I ask that any one else to give me another reason why prplhz is mafia if they have a reason. i would be intrigued to hear. This is actually a solid post. Really nothing to say about it. He points out some obvious things, but the most important part is that he's not pointing any fingers (he really hasn't pointed any fingers throughout the game) and he's defending prplhz. Which seems to be quite a contradiction when he finally: On May 24 2011 10:50 hiro protagonist wrote: I still cant figure out what is so suspicious about prplhz, but because a lot of you feel he is worth the vote then so be it; ##Vote: Prplhz Really... if you know something that we don't, please tell us about it. Explain why we shouldn't be voting him. This is just ridiculous if you're town. You don't vote for anyone as town, unless you think they're mafia. But the thing is, this makes perfect sense if you're Mafia. Don't take any responsibility for a kill on someone that you already know is green, and voila... the people that pushed the lynch will look bad, and you can just happily watch the townies go at each others throat until you bandwagon the next townie lynch. Notice this: Day 1: Votes Skrammen when GiygaS is top candidate for lynching Day 2: Bandwagons Mataza Day 3: Bandwagons prplhz even after claiming he's probably not mafia. Hiro Protagonist is mafia I don't need no damn cop, I'll investigate you with an axe tomorrow night. | ||
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Your post is just sealing the deal as far as I'm concerned. Now we just need to decide in what order to hang them. Maybe one of them will swoop in and vote his partner in order to regain some trust? @VisEyes & Stefftastiq, it's important that the town votes as whole now. I want to kill Hiro as I've had him pinned as mafia since day 2, but if you guys like Wunder better I can switch my vote over there. I was already very suspicious of him, and Sinai's analysis just organized what thoughts I had of the guy. Just pick one and go. ##Vote: Hiro Protagonist | ||
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If you vote Wunder I'll switch, if you vote Hiro I'll stick to it. If you vote me, I'll stick you with the pointy end of a sword. | ||
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On May 25 2011 19:15 stefftastiq wrote: Seeing other people voting early this day I would really like to see a response from hiro / wunder as well ##Vote: Hiro Protagonist I don't talk with mafia, so they can remain silent for all I care. | ||
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@sinani206 Are you cool with switching your vote to Hiro for this? We'll go straight for Wunder tomorrow. | ||
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If you're not mafia, now would be the time to stop being useless and actually explaining to us why we should not be killing Hiro and you. | ||
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Most exciting mafia game on the forums! | ||
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On May 27 2011 10:14 hiro protagonist wrote: bah, real life... It looks like I'm the one going down tonight. I had thoughts and analysis that i wanted to share, but not enough time now. well, this is my one shot at going for the real scum: ##Vote: Palmar What size a noose do you use? | ||
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No matter who dies tonight, just go straight for Wunder. | ||
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Here's the thing. There are really strong arguments against you, and your overall play-style screams mafia. I am at this point, pretty sure that you're the remaining scum. There is just simply too much against you for me to believe anything else. If you are town, as you claim, then it is time to step up and actually try to contribute something to the game. Explain everything you've done, find us a new lynch candidate and make a good case against that person. If you're town, and we lynch you, and then lose the game because of you being lazy, apathetic and selfish, then all I can say is that I hope I won't ever have to play with you again. I mean, if you're the mafia, which I think is much more likely, then it's just fair game. You lurked throughout the game and got close to winning on it. | ||
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Still sucks that there were enough inactive players for the mafia to hide amongst. I hope everyone steps up their town game from this. If we are correct and win this, it's not because of us being a good town, but mainly because the mafia was kinda bad-ish. Some of us tried, but what can you do when someone like Skrammen doesn't even bloody respond when he's voted so heavily day 1. Like... that's just bad town play. But I guess this is a newbie game, so it's kind of expected. I tried to push for activity back in the early days, but that just got me almost lynched, so I just decided to say "fuck it" and start analyzing what little information we had. Thing is, even if we win this, it'll be kinda lucky. I could've made an almost equally strong case against nard or wunder, as I did against Hiro, and perhaps we would've shot wrong last lynch and lost the game right there. The main reason I'm almost 100% sure Nard (sinani206) is clear is that a mafia player would probably not get himself replaced this late in the game. Like, that scumswitch to Hiro on day 3 was completely useless... Why would you do that when it just changes the score from 5-2 to 4-3? And sinani steps in, and seems to not really have any issues with voting for Hiro and thus killing him, leaving Wunder the only person protecting him, even providing a pretty solid analysis. I especially loved the part where he checked the timings of Wunder's few posts, and pointed out his "I don't have time" excuse for lurking. Just make sure that you don't let Wunder off the hook barring some extraordinary situation, one of us will die, but I can't really see how anyone dying but Wunder himself would change anything. | ||
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unless someone has a better idea ##Vote: Wunder | ||
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I see... VisEyes, Mataza, Karshe, Myself, Hiro Protagonist, Sinani206 all in the list, and Prplhz just added signed up, so he'll probably get a spot too. Enjoy the popcorn guys! | ||
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So yeah, main thing is that his behavior doesn't make any sense if he's town. To try to add some content that can at least be discussed, I'll try to analyse what could explain Wunder's behavior and his patterns. Here are the assumptions: a) If Wunder does not act, he remains the prime suspect b) The longer Wunder doesn't act, the more chance we have on turning on each other, on the basis of "Mafia would never be that inactive/apathetic" or "if he was Mafia he would've conceded". If Wunder remains the prime suspect, it is bad for him. If he's mafia, he loses the game, if he's town he also loses the game, barring a random doc/cop combo that I very much doubt exists. So Wunder is in a situation where he must get the focus off himself, to have a chance to win the game. Now the problem is, how does he achieve this. He could either try to defend himself and accuse someone else, or he could hope that his inactivity "proves" his innocence, and we start hunting for a new target. But while the result of both paths is the same (reduced suspicion on Wunder), the way in which they achieve it is vastly different. And unfortunately for Wunder, he has picked the way that only makes sense if you are mafia. If he becomes active, defend himself and accuses someone else, he's actively trying to win the game as town. Because if he's town, he not only has to clear himself, but also has to correctly identify the mafia in the other three remaining players. Lynching another townie is just as useless as getting lynched yourself as town. If he however, just remains inactive and hopes that will somehow make us think he's a bored/bad townie, all it does is clear himself, without so much as trying to actually identify the correct mafia, and thus win the game. There is no town-logic that can be applied to make this the better approach. | ||
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I know I was super scummy and suspicious since day one, I'll learn from that in the future. I think some good player once said "This game is not about what you know or what you can guess, it's about what you can make others believe". I hope to play with most of you again. Any harsh words and insults I've thrown around were done for the sake of the game, so I apologize if anyone took offence. Oh, and extra thanks to my scum partners, GiygaS and Hiro Protagonist. Hiro will be the unsung hero of this game, he really played his part like a champion. See you in PTP! | ||
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Big thanks to GMarshal and chaoser for hosting and modding this. This was very fun, and it ran smoothly. | ||
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