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Oh wow.
Vis eyes is spinning and changing direction like a magnet taped to a ventilatorblade.
I am x posts away from a policy lynch against Vis, where x is when I get too annoyed.
Here is the thing:
Some are reading too much into Karshes death. We might as well hunt for mafia in GMarshal´s posts.
My point here is, the mafia is as uncertain about the setup as we are. They fear a good doctor and they fear a good cop. And that´s why they maybe don´t kill the people they want to actually kill.
Btw, I am considering a very risky move. It would shed some light on an active player, but also guarantee his death night 2 if he is inno or day3 when he is scum.
If I´m wrong you will probably hate me. On the bright side, no mislynch possible.
Would you consider it to be worth it?
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I skimmed Giygas posts again, since I have a much easier time reading him.
The only thing I can take away from that, is he got genuinely nervous because of deepblu´s accusation.
That was one of his last posts with any content, too. His mates probably told him to be silent after that.
Just a hunch of mine. My read on Giygas is the only thing I trust right now.
On a side note, inactivity becomes a problem again. As much as I hate to, but I think a policy lynch might be needed.
People post. If you have nothing else, post your gut feeling. Sincerety is at least tell.
Also be critical and use your own brain  .
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Vis, calm down.
Look at your own posts, you are hysterical and your posts contain more red sprinkles than a butcher convention.
You are all over the place, switching your fos, announcing to have solved the game and then switching again. Stop posting any little thought you have. Post bigger and better ones.
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There was this risky play I intended to do. I think I´ll scratch that.
It´s way harder than yesterday though. Suddenly there are all these people posting :D
But at least town is acting on its own now.
I will make a longer post when and if I can make a good contribution.
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Right now I have a brilliant maneuver in mind, but I really would need to write 1 PM to make it work.
Argh
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I request prplhz to voice his thoughts. He said he is not going to be online for 12 hours, but thats been 17 hours already.
I really want to hear a fourth opinion.
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Also FoS prplhz.
He still gives me a chaotic read. His behaviour overall seems a little.....off.
Like he is planning spontaneous responses.
He talks about leaders being obviously bad for town, while a few hours later talking about how good it is to have people under control.
Literally. He doesn´t want to help lead the town, he only talks about control.
+ Show Spoiler +On May 17 2011 21:48 prplhz wrote:(Bladibla...) I also think that it is bad that people have removed focus from Mataza. While he might not be scum this town has him very much under control. He is very active and has agreed to answer every question directed at him. These are very useful qualities for town to find in a player, no matter if he is scum or townie. We should have tried to use these qualities to hunt scum. I would love to have waited with this post until GiygaS next post but lets just go ahead and do some analysis. I do not think that Mataza is harmful for this town just yet. He is under control so far, I would like him to be more harmful for the Mafia though. So I ask this: @Mataza : With the information available to you now, who would you lynch if you should lynch the player you think is most likely to be Scum? (Bladibla...) @VisceraEyes : Do you think that it is beneficial for the town that you suddenly make a 180 in letting Mataza off the hook and go full force against stefftastiq? Another player who has struck me as harmful to the town is Palmar. He has recently used some very questionable rhetorics to defend Mataza, and while it might be good that Mataza is not lynched, questionable rhetorics are always harmful to town. But on the other hand he also appears to be a very strong player who the town can make good use of later on, so maybe it is just a question of getting him under control  (Bladibla...) It is very good to have people under control; the more they post the more we can ask questions and the more we can make ourselves sure that someone is scum/townie. We will probably have two modkills but maybe it will be beneficial to town to lynch one of the least active players, to set an example, to make the game more fun, to maybe hit a lurking scum! Oh yeah and GiygaS; my nick is "purple haze" without any vowels or spaces
He mostly points out things that are bad or "harmful" for town, but never about things that actually help us. All that, while he goes out of his way and calls himself important enough to be the nightkill, because "they might be afraid that I will try to rally people".
Him rallying people never looked probable or even possible to me.
After rereading all his posts, there is only 2 explanations in my mind:
1) He is greatly holding back, while thinking he is absolutely invaluable. He doesn´t know in the
least how he appears to the town
2) He is scum trying to be perceived as invaluable, a good analyst. With superior knowledge he
has a deep understanding of what actually happens. But because he is Mafia, he cannot post
why his maf buddies are suspicious.
I really, really want to think he is town since he was quite active. It just doesn´t fit somehow.
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You want me to take the risk?
No problem. I see a huge opening right now, even improved by your own post. It´s about blue roles.
Plan A(don´t do this anymore):
I ask the Doctor to claim openly. If we have 2 doctors, we know 1 of them is scum. Sounds good initially.
BUT this of course has huge flaws. In the worst case we lose the doctor for nothing.
Plan B:
Cop claim openly. ASAP.
Prplhz claims to have been roleblocked. He also says he is only townie.
We have very likely a doctor. If there really is a roleblocker, we have a cop.
And if we have a cop, who is not prplhz(since he just claimed townie), we can verify the setup.
What we don´t have is a roleblocker and a cop. The setup is only 1 doctor.
Claiming roleblock is not an uncommon strategy for scum(I don´t know why, I think it´s utter rubbish)
Super duper risky plan has the following options:
1) Purple fakes roleblock. We have 1 doc, no cop
2) Purple was really blocked. Our "doctor" is scum.
3) Purple was really blocked. We have 1 cop and 1 doc. We only know if cop claims. He should.
4) Purple fakes the roleblock and we have 1 cop. In that case our scum are Purple and the doctor.
Obviously 4) won´t happen. Mafia would doom itself.
If we have a cop, he also has a report from the night, since Purp was blocked.
I expect to have either 1) or 3) happening and both situations are very clear. A clear situation is always good. The easier it is to understand the situation the better the town can act.
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Addendum:
If you are the doctor and are absolutely sure you never gave your role away, claim it loudly.
It would mean we have an impostor in the game.
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Btw, I have a read on why Karshe was not protected at night.
If Mafia is crafty they knew it too.
This little affair is the only reason I even consider that we have an impostor doctor.
Of course in case it was just random I can´t tell my read openly as it would benefit the mafia to know what I puzzled together.
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That´s why I strongly request claims now.
If our real doctor was very silent, he must have missed the impostor.
If we have a cop he MUST claim. The reward is instantly getting an innocent report and a mafia. The risk is getting heavily messed with by scum.
Claiming means we know the setup 100% sure.
I cannot overstate how good this is for us.
If you are cop and do not claim, it means I will wrongly try to get prplhz lynched. And that if you claim later nobody will believe you.
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I know this sounds crazy. That´s why I scrapped the version where we only had a doctor.
Now we have a doctor and a roleblock. If both are true, cop will claim and we get 3 confirmed innocents:
The doc(who will remain anonymous)
The cop(who will be known)
The report of the cop(since cop was not blocked)
The other option is that either the doc lies or that the roleblock is a lie. We get 1 maf in a 1:1 trade, which is good for town.
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Prplhz is not doc, he is scum.
I can and I will explain every little detail about my plan once I am sure that we 100% have a cop/do not have a cop.
Also as far as voting is concerned:
18:01 VisceraEyes -> stefftastiq
18:59 Palmar -> DeepBlue2
19:54 DeepBlue2 -> GiygaS
01:00 Mataza -> GiygaS
01:39 VisceraEyes -> ()
02:48 Skrammen -> GiygaS
07:25 GiygaS -> Skrammen
07:35 prplhz -> Skrammen
07:51 VisceraEyes -> prplhz
09:01 VisceraEyes -> ()
09:01 VisceraEyes -> GiygaS
09:05 Karshe -> Skrammen
09:48 hiro protagonist -> Skrammen
09:56 Wunder -> Skrammen
09:58 stefftastiq -> GiygaS
10:08 nard -> Skrammen
10:55 prplhz -> ()
10:55 prplhz -> GiygaS
11:00 Voting ends
We know Giygas is mafia. He was the first to vote Skrammen.
A short time later, but not immediately afterwards, prplhz follows.
Skrammen of course was a perfect safe lynch, chosen by mafia. Also consider this:
On May 18 2011 07:25 GiygaS wrote:
Hello everyone!
On the subject of me having 3 votes, I'm more worried about who could slip by. Namely Skrammen.
Skrammen hasn't posted at all until suddenly, he burst on the scene: Announcing his business the last few days very vaguely, Then jumps on the current trend of voting for me, without any reasoning behind doing so. This seems very dangerous to me, so I'm going to vote for him for the same reason that prplhz has reasoned: an evil unknown is far greater then a known one.
##Vote Skrammen
His voting on Skrammen was not his own choice, but apparently Purplehaze´s.
##vote prplhz
Only thing that could make me think he is town is a very good analysis or a cop claim.
Trust me on this, we didn´t need a blue role day 1, we don´t need a blue day 2.
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Nope, if Cop dies without ever outing a report, or his claim, he is nothing more than a green townie for us.
However, right now we have a scenario in which we either get
- a lot of confirmed innocents, which facilitates scumhunt immensely
- 1 scum
- 2 scum
I know what I´m doing. Prplhz was right when he called me a risktaker. I did this before and I will do it again, if the risk/reward is favorable.
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On May 20 2011 09:56 nard wrote:the voting time is suspicious but not enough for me to cast a vote just yet. also - what??? in the same post you say: Show nested quote +
I can and I will explain every little detail about my plan once I am sure that we 100% have a cop/do not have a cop.
Show nested quote +
Trust me on this, we didn´t need a blue role day 1, we don´t need a blue day 2.
this doesnt make sense..
Why, it makes good sense. We got Giygas without any blue role. And if the maf really has a roleblocker, we could be all townies.
If a blue role would be so important that you couldn´t win without it, it wouldn´t be a possible setup.
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Do you feel the thrill of the hunt?
Up till now I played what I would consider safe. You do not win mafia by playing safe. You win by taking small risks(lynching Giygas) and slightly bigger risks(what I´m doing).
I have half a case against prplhz.
Before that, he appeared scummy to at least 1 other person.
I will extend my case against him and I will push him like I pushed Giygas. And he will flip red.
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I am not erratic, I am thrilled.
My mind is like an arrow and my target is prplhz.
I analysed 3 people this game:
Viscera
Giygas
Prplhz
In that order. I didn´t waver. I didn´t change my announced FoS anytime between.
I claim we do not have a roleblock in the game. That´s the most recent of prplhz lies.
If you were mafia, would you roleblock prplhz?
People said I claim cop in my first post(which is a misinterpretation, but w/e).
Somebody else gave away his doctortude.
Why would anyone roleblock prplhz at this point?
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Nope, this is what I did all game.
You might remember back on day 1 when I put FoS on you for a couple hours.
I dropped, as you also may remember. Because you are quite obvious green.
And yes, Doctor didn´t claim but I KNOW WHO HE IS, because I have awesome observational skills.
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The big analysis of Prplhz
Prplhz has been preceived as scummy day1. After Giygas flipped red, perceived suspicion against him dropped a whole lot, as we are seemingly back to hunting inactives.
If I am right, he knew he was suspicious day 1. He also knew Giygas was even worse off. So he tried to make 2 bads into 1 good and voted Giygas off, so he is cleared off suspicion.
1) Now it has been enough time to relatively safely assume we have no cop in the game.
If this is true, it means we have 1 doc and no roleblockers ingame.
But prplhz claimed to have been roleblocked.
+ Show Spoiler +http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=222568¤tpage=19#364 On May 20 2011 08:36 prplhz wrote:
Oh shit I need to do some roleblock discussion too.
Right, Karshe got killed and I got blocked. We either have Doc+Cop or we have vanilla town. The scum has known this all along.
Now Imagine this. Scum tried to block townie. Why on earth would they do that? Only makes sense if they are trying to do some mind games, but would it not be better to block someone other than me? Someone who is townie but who is acting scummy? Now imagine this: Scum tried to block Doc. If I am doc would their blocking me have helped in their assassination of Karshe? Not likely, I do not think I ever even mentioned Karshe before he was killed so why would they think I would try to save him? So scum tried to block Cop?
What are your thoughts on this?
My thought on this matter is he is Scum and there is no roleblock.
He tried to distract us with talk about happy fun stuff like who the scum thinks is Doctor or Cop.
That´s my stance on it.
2) Prplhz talks about leaders being obviously bad for town, while a few hours later talking about how good it is to have people under control.
+ Show Spoiler +http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=222568¤tpage=6#102 On May 17 2011 09:26 prplhz wrote:Sup guys Right now I am mainly suspecting Mataza, mainly because of something that Mataza said early on: Now this statement could very well be benign but it is doing two things: degrading the town to diminish people's confidence in their ability to play this game (overestimate) making them more susceptible to get influenced by someone (himself) and setting himself up as a "leader" of the town (my town). I do not know why Mataza is trying to set himself up as a leader of the town but there are two scenarios: 1. He's a scum: He wants to control people and mislead them to vote for innocent people and keep the mafia save. 2. He's a townie: He wants to control people and lead to to vote for guilty scum and keep the town save. Either way he is trying to be a "leader" of the town and this in itself is bad. A town should never have a leader and should instead have people thinking very independently forming their own opinion, this should happen through discussion and activity of course. Mataza is very savvy and probably knows that having a leader is not good for a town, so why is he trying to set himself up to be one? This is a question that everybody should ask themselves.Now stuff that might talk against this: First: Mataza is actually not pointing fingers at anybody, I think we should be very careful if he ever decides to "lead" "his town" to vote for someone. Second (as pointed out by Mataza himself): If he is trying to lead this town as a scum would lead it we would quickly find out (we would lynch innocent people). And since we can afford losing people, trading a townie (guy Mataza would want to lynch) for a scum (Mataza) is really a good deal for the town. Maybe he is setting himself and the mafia up for mid/late game? This is a question that everybody should ask themselves.Other than that I think that all the debate around Mataza is hurting the town (we are not talking about someone else). So to stop this I am going to talk about someone else: VisceraEyes and GiygaS It is very hard for me to argue against VisceraEyes and GiygaS because I am also suspicious of Mataza. This is very hard because, while these two guys have been on Mataza's back the whole time they claim that it has been for the sake of activity. This has worked alright since these three guys are arguably the most contributing players in this game right now so their claimed plans have worked out well. But why are they not directing any of this activity against each other? This is a question that everybody should ask themselves.(Bladibla...) Show nested quote +On May 17 2011 02:25 nard wrote:
i can imagine there are still some people thinking about what they could include in their first post which is not completely trivial - took me a while as well :p While this might be a whole new game for everybody it should not be hard for an innocent townie to write a simple "hello" post. Maybe nard is having a hard time writing his first post because he is a scum with a hidden agenda and then he is thinking that everybody else is having a hard time too? This is a question that everybody should ask themselves. Note that he also likes us to ask ourself questions, derailing from the important things. http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=222568¤tpage=7#129 On May 17 2011 21:48 prplhz wrote:(Bladibla...) I also think that it is bad that people have removed focus from Mataza. While he might not be scum this town has him very much under control. He is very active and has agreed to answer every question directed at him. These are very useful qualities for town to find in a player, no matter if he is scum or townie. We should have tried to use these qualities to hunt scum. I would love to have waited with this post until GiygaS next post but lets just go ahead and do some analysis. I do not think that Mataza is harmful for this town just yet. He is under control so far, I would like him to be more harmful for the Mafia though. So I ask this: @Mataza : With the information available to you now, who would you lynch if you should lynch the player you think is most likely to be Scum? (Bladibla...) @VisceraEyes : Do you think that it is beneficial for the town that you suddenly make a 180 in letting Mataza off the hook and go full force against stefftastiq? Another player who has struck me as harmful to the town is Palmar. He has recently used some very questionable rhetorics to defend Mataza, and while it might be good that Mataza is not lynched, questionable rhetorics are always harmful to town. But on the other hand he also appears to be a very strong player who the town can make good use of later on, so maybe it is just a question of getting him under control (Bladibla...) It is very good to have people under control; the more they post the more we can ask questions and the more we can make ourselves sure that someone is scum/townie. We will probably have two modkills but maybe it will be beneficial to town to lynch one of the least active players, to set an example, to make the game more fun, to maybe hit a lurking scum! Oh yeah and GiygaS; my nick is "purple haze" without any vowels or spaces 
Where did this sudden change come from?
3) Voting affairs.
His last 3 posts before his vote:+ Show Spoiler +http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=222568¤tpage=8#148 On May 18 2011 03:11 prplhz wrote:@Skrammen Hi, could you please, in a very short while, provide A LOT more content for us to analyze? I was kinda hoping you would get modkilled. http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=222568¤tpage=8#152On May 18 2011 06:20 prplhz wrote:Maybe we cracked down too much on people trying to create drama 'cause I have to agree with Karshe that there is too little discussion going on. So I'm asking everybody (and that include you, person who is reading this now) to post who they would like to get lynched on day2 in case they themselves will get assassinated during the night. I think that I might be a target (hoping for a cute nurse to help me out though!) so this is probably quite relevant. This will be great for town, we can have you analytical skills readily available for day2 even if you get killed during the night! So let me say that I've cracked down a bit on the active people, but in the end I think I am going to vote for an inactive player because the evil you don't know is far more scary than the evil you do know! This will most likely only be for day1 though and I'm sure the scums already know that. So if they eliminate me it will be because they might be afraid that I will try to rally people to kill off someone who I think is a scum, and who is active. People who fit this description according to my posts so far are VisceraEyes and GiygaS, I said that if they turned on each other they would most likely be one scum, one good guy. So if I happen to get mafia killed on first night I think these are people you should really watch out for, but probably only one of them is scum! So what about you people, if you had to write a testament to the town today, what would it say? And by the way, I am going to write a vote post in around an hour, so it will be up before two hours. ((OOC: Oh and Palmar, no hard feelings about the "idiot" thing )) http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=222568¤tpage=8#160On May 18 2011 07:35 prplhz wrote:Yea I'm gonna go ahead and vote now. ##Vote Skrammen Reason for this is that he just comes in 8 hours before day1 ends, casts and vote with 2 paragraphs of resonable and does not respond to our pleas that he post some more content. I am going to be honest with you and say that maybe he's not the one who is most likely to be scum but I think he's the most harmful for the town right now. If I should have voted for most likely to be scum I would vote for VisceraEyes for reasons I have already stated. Also his latest post is not really convincing me of anything else either. To answer the post VisceraEyes just made, the one that was mainly about me; No I don't control anybody Other than that I can't seem to find anything in your post I should need to comment on because mostly you're just saying that you disagree with what I said.
More importantly notice how Giygas votes within 10 minutes of Prplhz.+ Show Spoiler +http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=222568¤tpage=8#157 On May 18 2011 07:25 GiygaS wrote:
Hello everyone!
On the subject of me having 3 votes, I'm more worried about who could slip by. Namely Skrammen.
Skrammen hasn't posted at all until suddenly, he burst on the scene: Announcing his business the last few days very vaguely, Then jumps on the current trend of voting for me, without any reasoning behind doing so. This seems very dangerous to me, so I'm going to vote for him for the same reason that prplhz has reasoned: an evil unknown is far greater then a known one.
##Vote Skrammen
First of all, this is out of character for Giygas. He somehow used great parts of prplhz reasoning before prplhz used it. Coincidence? I think not. Prplhz has been whispering into Giygas ear to write exactly that.
And at the end, like I said at the beginning, Prplhz changed his vote.
+ Show Spoiler +http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=222568¤tpage=11#220 On May 18 2011 10:55 prplhz wrote:
Yea this may be a huge mistake but if I'm gonna make it, it is going to be in the first game.
##Unvote Skrammen
##Vote GiygaS
My rationale:
The whole "vote for skrammen" thing was never about him being scum, it was about him being inactive and voting out of the blue. I think that we are going to have a lot better read on VisceraEyes, Mataza and Skrammen if we flip GiygaS, while flipping Skrammen will really give us nothing. Inactive players have hopefully learned their lesson.
Also I think it is very awesome that everybody voted, but it would be more awesome if everybody posted regularly too!
If he does not flip red I think the VisceraEyes is the best bid for a scum next time.
I'll probably be unavailable for the next 24 hours by way, and also for the first part of day1 but I will be here to answer questions just not to provide analysis. http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=222568¤tpage=12#235 On May 18 2011 11:26 prplhz wrote:
I can't believe this.
A little short, no? I thought we wanted to get answers.
Why would you be shocked *at all* at giygas flipping red? You don´t know who mafia is, so you kinda suspect everyone.
The solution: Prplhz puts up an act.
This short answer is saying "I did not expect Giygas to be red"
On the other hand, he put the nail in the coffin and cast the final vote on Giygas.
A clear contradiction.
4) Little things.
Example a:
A long post that talks about Viscera and Giygas turning on each other.
Did this happen? I can´t remember that this happened at all.
He also talked about him being a target for the nightkill, because he "has been rallying people" all day. I did not notice any of his rallying.
+ Show Spoiler +http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=222568¤tpage=8#152 On May 18 2011 06:20 prplhz wrote:Maybe we cracked down too much on people trying to create drama 'cause I have to agree with Karshe that there is too little discussion going on. So I'm asking everybody (and that include you, person who is reading this now) to post who they would like to get lynched on day2 in case they themselves will get assassinated during the night. I think that I might be a target (hoping for a cute nurse to help me out though!) so this is probably quite relevant. This will be great for town, we can have you analytical skills readily available for day2 even if you get killed during the night! So let me say that I've cracked down a bit on the active people, but in the end I think I am going to vote for an inactive player because the evil you don't know is far more scary than the evil you do know! This will most likely only be for day1 though and I'm sure the scums already know that. So if they eliminate me it will be because they might be afraid that I will try to rally people to kill off someone who I think is a scum, and who is active.People who fit this description according to my posts so far are VisceraEyes and GiygaS, I said that if they turned on each other they would most likely be one scum, one good guy. So if I happen to get mafia killed on first night I think these are people you should really watch out for, but probably only one of them is scum! So what about you people, if you had to write a testament to the town today, what would it say? And by the way, I am going to write a vote post in around an hour, so it will be up before two hours. ((OOC: Oh and Palmar, no hard feelings about the "idiot" thing ))
+ Show Spoiler +http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=222568¤tpage=21 On May 20 2011 11:09 prplhz wrote:Hey I just want to clarify that what GiygaS said after his lynching should NOT be considered by anybody as evidence of anything. The game ends when you die but as the rules state you can make a GG post and that's what GiygaS did. It is very unfortunate that he did not stop his sentence 3 words and a smiley earlier but I am sure that he did not mean anything by it. I'll post more analysis later but I'm always up for questions directed at me.
My guess is that Giygas should have said something different.
Nobody else cares about this little quip. I see no reason to even read something into that. So why does Prplhz do?
If you read Prplhz post history, look especially for him asking questions that derail us away from the question who is mafia. He often goes to "why would mafia do this" and other stuff. He especially talk often about things being harmful to town, but he never spoke about something being good for town. That is a scumtell, known along the line of "bashing bad ideas but never bringing forth any good ideas".
Prplhz is scum. I am as convinced as I was with Giygas.
My vote stays ##vote Prplhz
Help me help you help win the game.
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@Palmar
I know my plan sounds insane. But if you work around all the numbers in the game it doesn´t sound that bad.
The game is set up in a way so town loses if we have 3 mislynches. We win the game when we lynch right 3 times.
On the other hand blue roles are important, but not that important. Good play does not rely on blue roles doing all the work.
There is a setup with no blue roles at all. If blue roles were crucial for success, town would have a 25% chance to be boned right from the start.
Also you have to keep in mind that if my plan works, we either get 1 scum if I was right from the start, or we get 2 scum, if the mafia make a mistake, or we get 3 confirmed innocents, if I was wrong.
Now 3 innocents doesn´t sound as good as getting scum. But mafia can only kill 1 person each night. Mafia would need 3 nights to recover.
Also getting 3 innocents was the most unlikely scenario as it would mean my entire read was wrong and I got lucky catching Giygas.
In essence I am a gambler, but I am not dumb.
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EPT
