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Here is the thing VisEyes.
Your theory is based on the assumption that the night kill was simply used to kill whomever was the biggest threat to the mafia at the point.
While essentially correct, it's such obvious logic to do that. The mafia knows, just as well as we do, that if player a FOS player b, and then player a dies during the night, player b immediately comes under suspicion.
Like... it's inevitable.
If Karshe FoS's Mataza and myself, and then he dies. Isn't it obvious that both of us will immediately be under fire from the town?
Put yourself on the other side. If someone accused you in day1 and you were mafia. Wouldn't you think killing him was a bit too obvious? Wouldn't you think that as soon as he died people would go back and read all his posts, only to find that he was going after you?
I don't buy it. Karshe's death was no accident. It was carefully chosen to cause maximum confusion in the town.
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On May 19 2011 19:05 VisceraEyes wrote:Shouldn't take long. That's the long list of inactives. 
Do you not see why I have a problem with that? Do you not understand why it bothers me to no end that we don't have any information to go on?
How on earth will we prove those guys scum, when nothing of value has been said?
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Do you really wanna go back and have a look at your arguments from day one? Do you remember that big post you created against purplehaze? Your main argument in this post was that he agreed with Mataza.
I wasn't suspicious of Purplehaze at the point, but I really wanted clarification on why he asked for a doctor protection out of nowhere?
Your argument at this point is:
Purple defended Mataza = Purple Scum
I defended Mataza = Palmar Scum
Mataza Defended me = Mataza Scum
One thing is pretty damn sure, not all of us are scum.
Thing is, you can read whatever you want from any of the three of us. You can go back and find "scummy" stuff from any of us. Hell, I can go back and find scummy stuff on you. But I don't think you're scum. I just think that you tunnel-vision way too much on the few people actually playing the game.
What you cannot do is find "scummy" stuff from everyone else playing this game.
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FoS = finger of suspicion
If I FoS you I'm letting it known that I believe you're mafia.
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That's FoS Wunder 
Instead of writing "I currently have my eye on both Palmar and PurpleHaze" you could've written "FoS on Palmar and PurpleHaze".
I think I've made my stand clear. I am not comfortable with the view that we only have to take a look at the outspoken players in order to find scum. But VisEyes seems pretty zealous in his witch hunt, so I'm not going to argue any more with him. He has at least shown the willingness to change his opinions in the past, which is in my opinion a good thing.
My time is better spent trying to analyse what little information we have on the remaining sheep in the game.
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@stefftastiq
The mafia want to fit in.
If the town is quiet, the mafia wants to be quiet. If the town is loud, the mafia wants to be loud.
My initial focus on getting everyone talking is that it's easier to spot loud mafia in a loud town, than quiet mafia in a quiet town. Obviously there are exceptions, but that's the general rule.
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Thanks VisEyes. The best way to prove you wrong is for people to read what you're basing your argument on.
I promised to go hunt the scum instead of spending time arguing with VisEyes. I have done this now and I think I may be on scum trail.
[r]Hiro Protagonist[/r]
On May 17 2011 02:02 hiro protagonist wrote:good morning team. first timer here. I agree, this is off to a good start. there is no reason to suspect anyone right now, as there is very little to go on, so its a little wait and see  I agree with VisceraEyes, its important to ask alot of questions. I will want clarifications on posts I find suspicious, and please do the same for me!
This is his first post. It contains nothing of value but some pointers about being new. There is no reason to state you're new to the game after it's started, but many other people in this game did so. I'm not going to get locked up on that.
On May 17 2011 02:31 GiygaS wrote:Show nested quote +On May 17 2011 02:02 hiro protagonist wrote:good morning team. first timer here. I agree, this is off to a good start. there is no reason to suspect anyone right now, as there is very little to go on, so its a little wait and see I agree with VisceraEyes, its important to ask alot of questions. I will want clarifications on posts I find suspicious, and please do the same for me! What do you think of the whole inactive debate? I think first day we should give them a break, but as they are more and more inactive we may want to infer scummyness. Also, its boring when people don't actually play :-P
This is a quote by the confirmed mafia in the game. His posting style was really damn random so there isn't much to read from it. But notice how friendly his style is toward his fellow mafia?
On May 17 2011 02:58 hiro protagonist wrote:
Its true that lurking round is a good place for scum to hide, as there is little evidence to indict them. how ever all but 3 of us have posted and I doubt that ALL of the inactives will be scum...
best bet is a scum has already posted, so we should try to sniff em out! If we don't have a good lead by tomorrow, then we should ask the lurkers to step up and explain themselves...
Another fluff post. Not much to read from this.
On May 17 2011 12:23 hiro protagonist wrote:
Ok, here are my thoughts so far,
the first two people I gonna talk about are the ones i have the most read on/talked the most o far:
VisceraEyes: He was the most active in the first few pages, with most of his post wanting simply for all active players to say hi. Also mentioning not to take suspicions of one another as a bad thing. I can agree with this line of logic, as it will foster a more friendly town, and get in on the scum hunting. His FoS of Mataza looks more like a call for discussion then an actual accusation. my worry is that he is almost TOO town, and is a likely prime hit for Mafia, unless of course he IS Mafia.
Mataza: considered the most suspicious as of right now, and with good reasoning. His first post was one of feinting a cop role. and Has been very Defensive initially when VisceraEye ask a question. Then he points the finger right back at VisceraEyes. after that he claims that he "just wanted to see how you would react". However he made a good post about how he wants to talk about what everyone else thinks, and his post are in the vein of scumhunting (when his not busy defending himself). not sure what to think of him tbh.
Next up GiygaS, nord, Palmar,:
These 3 have the most posts with the least amount of Analysis. most likely town wanting to hang low or wait and see before going into to much discussion. GiygaS has done the most in getting discussion going, expesialy around what VisceraEye and Mataza have been saying. not alot to go on.
prplhz: quite at first but then a solid post with good analysis.
Deepblue, Steff, Karshe: still need to here more from them. deepblue has gotten in pretty late with just a one liner. gonna watch to see if he is gonna just slide under the modkill, as there are still some inactives, and is laying low(as in acting scummy)
thats it for now.
Ah finally, the first post where he provides real analysis. Granted it's very "safe". He doesn't point any fingers and he doesn't put his neck out there. Both the long analysis he gives are inconclusive.
Then I bolded a part where he congratulates Giyg for getting people to talk. By this point almost everyone else was getting fed up with the spam.
On May 18 2011 09:05 hiro protagonist wrote:
Ok, LOTS to go on here, gonna give my take on things:
The General feeling for the first day started like this: the town began giving intro post that most had no content. the exception to this is of course Mataza, who kinda claimed Cop, and then retracted it.( I still do not like is explanation). the first three people to really get the ball rolling where ViscaraEyes, GiygaS, and Mataza. Of the three, I liked VisEyes approach the most, and Mataza's the least. but these 3 started talking, there still talking, and its leading somewhere. the way I feel about it is the longer they talk, the long one will slip up, and for me that does not make them A high priority lynch.
Is one of them Mafia? man it sure looks like it.
the next list of people include me: Hiro, Karshe, Palmar, Prplhz, and nard. Of this group, Prplhz and Karshe have had the most helpful post in my eyes. Palmar and nard mostly made some general post about the situation. Im leaving me out because thats a job for someone else.
Where does this leave me? I starting to look at inactives to vote for. but which one?
The only one I feel right now that would be an ok vote would be Skrammen, and heres why. the only post by Skrammen is one of agreeing with Mataza, apparently for no reason, ether he is a terrible Maffia, or a terrible townie.
Mataza, I want to believe your town, but the way you go about playing just rubs me a bit. I LOVE that you are taking swings at people, but as soon as some one wants to have a disscusion, you ether turn your finger on them, or call them a Bandwaggoner. I also dont like that almost every defense you say "I just wanted to see how you would react." that might be true, but it leaves me with no read on you...
what would we get if we voted Skrammen? if he flips town, we got a good reason to trust Mataza. If he flips scum, well, Mataza has some explaining to do...
will decide in a bit, to give more inactives time to post
Surprisingly good post, considering his earlier post history. He wants to vote for Skrammen on completely logical basis. There is no arguing with the fact that at this point Skrammen wasn't being useful to the town.
But the content of this post is really just... "I'm going to say intelligent things that make look pro-town, without actually taking a conclusive action"
Note that he doesn't stick his neck out far enough to actually cast a vote against Skrammen...
On May 18 2011 09:48 hiro protagonist wrote:
gonna stay with my line of logic, and vote skrammen. I cant believe more people are not on him given his VERY little content, and insta bandwagon vote.
Best case scenario: town votes GiygaS, and he flips scum. We got reason to trust one another and the hunt is in full swing.
worst case: GiygaS flips green, and we have lots of suspicions. Very good chance of Mafia breaking up trust and getting us to turn on one another.
good no mater what: voting Skrammen. we get ride of a terrible player, and we get a possible read on Mataza. I chose this one.
Eather way, Im happy with day one.
##Vote: Skrammen
Alright, this is where he finally casts his vote. His reasoning is similar to mine but there is a big... no... huge difference in the methodology. Which is what felt so alarming to me.
Hiro wants to lynch Skrammen because it's safe.
I want to threaten to lynch inactives to get them to post. (once again I refer to my promise of switching a vote toward Giyg if we got everyone posting).
The entire point of voting inactives is not to lynch them, it's to get them to defend themselves. Hiro just... ignores that and goes straight for the kill. Hopefully saving his partner in crime.
This is alarming.
This is incriminating.
##Vote: Hiro Protagonist
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lol that should have of course been
Hiro Protagonist
and my vote should have been bolded:
##Vote: Hiro Protagonist
Sorry about that.
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You can speculate all you want. I mean, it's clear that you really took it close to heart when I dismissed your attacks on purplehaze, so your accusations are influenced by the fact that you simply don't like me.
I meant to stop arguing with you...
Look at the situation from my point of view. Skrammen was under heavy fire and he was about to get lynched, yet he hadn't provided any solid analysis or even attempted to reason.
He knew why he was getting lynched, and he knew why he was getting lynched. Yet he failed to contribute anything.
Bandwagoning him would have been against my methodology. I don't want to lynch inactives.
Voting for GiygaS would also have been against my methodology, I want to use votes to force posting. GiygaS didn't need any encouragement to post.
I have no illusion that I will be able to convince you that you're wrong. You have made up your mind, and anything I say will be twisted in your mind because you're reading my posts in the mindset I am scum.
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On May 19 2011 21:58 VisceraEyes wrote:
All of my opinions and theories are based on my analysis of the situation...I don't dislike you, as I don't know you. I didn't appreciate the comments you made to prplhz, but it's a far-shot to claim that my entire argument is based on simply 'Vis doesn't like me'. I've laid out all the facts and done the research. This is far more than I can say for you. EVERYTHING you've said from d1 can be grouped into 2 general catagories: "Why Inactives Are Bad for the Town" and "Why Everyone In Town Should Do The Opposite of What They Think They SHOULD Do"
It's pretty apparent that you're now grasping at straws to save yourself, so I won't waste time trying to convince you of why you're coming off as very VERY guilty to me anymore. I'll focus instead on trying to find your accomplice.
Cool, I think it's good that we two just back off each other and let the town decide. It's not beneficial for anyone that two townies shout foul at each other while the scum sits back and relaxes.
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On May 20 2011 00:54 DeepBlu2 wrote:
Hiro gave an explanation how he screwed up and was an error on his part to offvote Glygas.
Could you provide a link to this explanation. I re-read from the lynch, but really couldn't find it.
Are you perhaps confusing Nard with Hiro? Because Nard created a pretty substantial post with his thoughts.
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@Mataza:
Being wrong is not a crime. I mean... I failed day one when I said exactly the same thing about GiygaS, but I still stand by my notion that people who post frantically don't need to be policy lynched. And VisEyes is obviously trying a bit harder than GiygaS was.
I mean, I already stated, there is plenty of things that point towards both myself and purplehaze, I refer to my analysis of what the death of Karshe accomplished for the mafia. I wish Vis would look beyond the obivous, but alas... he's annoying, but not dangerous. At least for now.
I will not support a policy lynch on VisEyes.
@DeepBlu2:
Here's the thing. Your calm and cool response to my accusations last night, followed by your insight in voting GiygaS very early on has led me to believe you are one of my safest bets for a townie in this game. I am very much looking forward to hearing your analysis. Both the targets you intended to analyse are of great interest. I already found very suspicious stuff about Hiro, and I'm curious if you reach the same conclusion.
Please continue posting actively.
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There is flaw in Mataza's logic
Do not roleclaim under any circumstances.
Will explain later, I'm busy at the moment.
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Okay I'm back.
First of all: Do not roleclaim.
Here is what will happen if a cop claims:
Mafia immediately knows the setup. If they have a roleblocker, they know there is a doctor too. If they don't have a roleblocker, they know there is no doctor.
a) If they do have a roleblocker, they'll just roleblock the cop until the end of the game, making it useless.
b) If they don't have a roleblocker, they know there is no doctor, so they just.... shoot the cop.
The only situation a roleclaim is advisable, is if the cop actually found Mafia. And even then it'd be better to simply go back, read the post of whoever they found to be scum, and try to get them lynched the old way.
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No VisEyes, you're perfectly correct. I'm sorry to have put you in a position where you have to agree with me.
Didn't Mataza claim to be an experienced player? Is there a chance this unhelpful roleclaim idea wasn't a simple mistake, but an elaborate plan? I was pretty sure Mataza wasn't one of the people I had to really analyse, but I guess I might have to spend some time re-reading his stuff.
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@DeepBlu
did you go back and check Wunder? I am very interested in what an analysis of him might reveal.
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So here I am, having the biggest WIFOM argument of my live with myself. It's pretty silly how things turn out like this.
It should be clear to everyone by now that Mataza's plan for having blue roles reveal themselves would not benefit anyone but the mafia. The logic is simple enough ( http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=9347746 <--- for anyone that's interested), and no one ought to have any trouble seeing why the plan is bad.
But this is after all a newbie game, shouldn't we expect a bad idea with good intentions? This was my initial reaction to his plan, thus I simply corrected it and moved on.
I would've expected to be done with the issue, but there are two things that keep nagging me. First is that Mataza kept pushing his plan, even after the critical flaws in it had been pointed out. If the mistake was just a miscalculation, he'd have seen it refuted, and stopped it.
The other thing that really bugs me is that Mataza seems to have some experience playing mafia, so he's the last person in town I'd expect to fall to such simple logical errors.
Even further, Mataza is doing some blatantly anti-town things in his latest posts. Check out this one for example:
On May 20 2011 12:00 Mataza wrote:
Nope, this is what I did all game.
You might remember back on day 1 when I put FoS on you for a couple hours.
I dropped, as you also may remember. Because you are quite obvious green.
And yes, Doctor didn´t claim but I KNOW WHO HE IS, because I have awesome observational skills.
Why on earth would you post that you know who the doctor is? The same information is available to everyone, so now the mafia will go back, read the thread again and try to find whatever you found and expose our doctor.
It does not help the town in any way that you're telling us you know who the doctor is. It doesn't further our purpose and it only creates confusion.
My problem is that I had no scum read on Mataza before this incident. Even his randomness during day 1 seemed to be pretty town oriented, but this thing is definitely bad for town. I can't possibly see how pushing a bad plan might be good for town... except if he's hoping mafia jumps on his plan or something...
Surprisingly enough, there is one person I'd really like to hear speak about the incident and the issue, and that is VisEyes.
Assuming you followed up:
On May 20 2011 10:01 VisceraEyes wrote:
Maybe you can call us all sheep today too. -.- And I had just about cleared you in my mind. Back to page 3 I guess.
*weep*
Did you find anything of interest once you read Mataza's posts from the point of view that he was an experienced scum trying to lead the town awry?
I just can't find any justification from a town point of view for what Mataza is doing right about now.
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On May 21 2011 04:42 prplhz wrote:
If I am lynched today and I flip green you should lynch Mataza on day3, no matter what kind of defense he puts up. After that I would look at hiro protagonist and nard, one of which will probably be the last scum. If I flip red then you will obviously be in a good spot.
prplhz already answered that VisEyes.
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I trust you (viseyes), deepblu
I don't know about skrammen, steffastiq, nard, prplhz
I'm very suspicious of hiro, mataza and wunder
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I haven't had the time to do analysis on Wunder yet, but if I recall correctly I think he bandwagoned the skrammen vote pretty hardcore, and now he's just following you to a pretty "safe" attack on me.
If you do manage to get me lynched VisEyes, make sure you pick the right allies to follow through with.
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EPT
