EPTPick Your Power Insane!
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On May 04 2011 09:28 chaoser wrote: hahaha, this is going to be a huge vets game huh i will avoid having expectations; Diplomafia had a pretty veteran player pool and it had like 5 (?) modkills. | ||
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+ Show Spoiler + Chuiu Jack Of all trades, master of none. You may use up to six abilities from other roles in the game however you are restricted to the very same rules that apply to them when you use them. You may not use the same role in two consecutive day/night cycles in a row. The following roles you may use are: Vigilante, Modern Detective, Medic, and Caller Veteran. You may not use two in one cycle (ie: Detective during day, Paramedic during night). Says six abilities from other roles in the game, but there are only 4 there. ?_? NKVD Agent You are proud member of People’s Commissariat of the Interior! You search for corrupt mafia once per night, either by tracking the foul capitalist smell of the clues they leave behind, or by contacting NKVD HQ for a role check on a suspicious individual. You also can disguise your role as NKVD agent to detective actions, and may change role or keep the same! What does it mean, change role or keep the same? Admiral Akbar Can suicide and kill someone and all medics protecting them and everyone who has made an action on them that cycle. You may use your ability day or night! If you use your ability during day, does it kill everyone who has made an action on them during that day and the previous night, or just that day? Bad Santa At the start of the game you may send me a list of 5 players' names. If any of those player's are the cause of death for each other by Night kill, lynch, or any other means then you can pick any of the remaining names and kill one of them the next night. Say I name players A,B,C,D,E. A killed E (I don't care how). Which players do I choose from to kill? I'm reading A,B,C,D, but I need to be sure. Hooker As the town prostitute at Night you can send me a message and choose who you want to sleep with. Anyone you sleep with will get HIV and has 3 days to live. You can get rid of your infection if you get a medic to protect you for a full cycle (i,e they can't message me to save you and then protect someone else same night). If the target doesn't get medic protection within 3 days or saved by a Martyr on Night 3 they will die. Is someone informed if he/she sleeps with a hooker? I feel like this is a yes, but it's Insane Mafia, so you never know. Medic You have the ability to watch one other player during night, which you must tell me about before the end of night (preferably before night even starts). You may choose not to use this ability also. When a player is watched he cannot die unless the number of people attacking him outnumbers the number of people watching him or his night lives. In other words if two mafia attack a person being watched by one paramedic, the person will die. The town won't know who was saved, but I will let the Paramedic and the person saved know if they were targeted and saved. You also protect against recruitment for the night. Pardoner You can save a player from a lynch by typing ##pardon player. You can use this ability twice. You can not Pardon yourself. In thread, I assume? Caller Godfather You appear to DTs as any role of your choice (you cannot change the role that you appear as after you PM to me). In addition, after Day 3, you may pm me the name of one person, and if they are not being protected by a medic, martyr, or thrown in jail they are inducted into mafia! (only 2 recruitment attempts possible) If a townie picks this role, the conversion acts as an expensive alignment check that follows normal DT rules. By expensive, you mean the person you check becomes mafia? Hider You are scared of being shot so you hide behind other players at night. If you hide behind a mafia you automatically die and any vigilante hit on you is refunded. If you do not hide behind a mafia and you are hit you live. You can still be bombed or admiral ackbar'd, and you cannot hide behind the same person twice. Do you die if you are mafia and hide behind a mafia? | ||
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Should say Protactinium, not Flamewheel imo | ||
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On May 15 2011 04:21 Kurumi wrote: I am not up for any plan. If we choose one,we will have a major problem:they will try to find weakness of it,that's why I think planning has no future,we just need to use common sense (like Node wrote,picking PoD will most likely get You lynched,even if You will be townie) Focusing on KP,anti-KP,lynch roles has it pluses,but when You have A,enemy can have B,which effectively counters A or they just do some-kind of workaround. Scum wants chaos or a plan. A chaos under control is what they can't foresee. Feel like expanding on "chaos under control"? This post feels vaguely WIFOM. I think Radfield had an excellent idea in compiling a list of roles that are good for mafia, bad for town, which should be an automatic lynch. His list was: + Show Spoiler + NRA Member Hero Bomber Man Rock Star Emporer Day vig Vengeful player America and Kingmaker (see above) Zombie Admiral Ackbar Pardoner Cupid Prince of Darkness Suicide Bomber Politician Agent of Chaos Roleblocker Role Reverser Framer Copy Cat Recruiting Mason Bone Breaker Puppeteer Hooker to which I'd like to add: Janitor (why was this not already on there? It denies death information, which is one of the Town's best sources of information.) and remove: Day Vig (This doesn't help Mafia a whole lot, since the kill is very publicized and he can only shoot once, but it can be put to good use by the town, especially against lynch-dodging roles) Copycat (I wouldn't say this is extremely pro-mafia, anti-town. Chance s are, it'll get the role from the Day 1 lynch. Mafia won't get good use out of it if the Day 1 lynch is a pro-town, anti-mafia role.) Also, I don't know why there wasn't more surprise at: On May 14 2011 13:31 Incognito wrote: Whoops I meant only KillerSOS is mafia. KillerSOS's only posts in the thread were very short - that's true. Still, that's not nearly enough for a hard accusation at this point, I think. Elaborate, please? On May 15 2011 01:06 tnkted wrote: This of course means that anyone who survives the first few nights but is in the top 5 is going to be on my shitlist, unless they've survived a hit already or something. Simple reason is this: Scum is going to get in top 5, and scum is going to shoot into top 5, because one of those 5 is going to have inventor, which is by far the most OP role in this game. Especially if you're creative. immune to actions, anyone? cakebomb? free caffemetamine (extra turn at night)? Autoframe? doublekill? the list goes on. Inventor is deadly in the hands of scum and even deadlier in the hands of town. There has been some talk about a traitor; I hadn't realized this, but bums right. Somebody is certain to be an asshole. If I had to guess, I'd say its probably going to be somebody lower down on the list, who knew he/she wasn't going to be able to get medic, and chose traitor instead. so when draft order is revealed: medics, if you get your roles, PROTECT THE TOP 5 OR SO. i'm honestly confused by the combination of these two statements lastly, On May 15 2011 02:57 Caller wrote:tl:dr-bads being bad, also, if you're a mid/low pick, grab anti-kp roles. Mafia has virtually no reason to take them, unless they want to form a medic circlejerk, in which case by all means let them. I agree with this idea regarding mid/low picks. | ||
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Am I allowed to use the Filter button? (the staff one) | ||
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On May 15 2011 04:21 Kurumi wrote: I am not up for any plan. If we choose one,we will have a major problem:they will try to find weakness of it,that's why I think planning has no future,we just need to use common sense (like Node wrote,picking PoD will most likely get You lynched,even if You will be townie) Focusing on KP,anti-KP,lynch roles has it pluses,but when You have A,enemy can have B,which effectively counters A or they just do some-kind of workaround. Scum wants chaos or a plan. A chaos under control is what they can't foresee. | ||
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To add again to Radfield's list, Assassin is also extremely strong for mafia because mafia know all the alignments at the start, so as far as I can tell it's a free additional KP with few drawbacks. | ||
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On May 15 2011 07:02 bumatlarge wrote: Disagree, I think a town assassin is insane. They aren't considered to have a gun. They can just guess red everytime and never risk killing a townie. And I believe since their action is outed, since ver will say whether they targeted for role or red? Assassin cannot target alignment, just red or role, correct? And if they fail, will you reveal how the assassin sent the hit? (red or role) Oh hmm, that looks like a misunderstanding on my part. If assassin can't target by both alignments, then it doesn't help mafia nearly as much. Assassin can't just guess red repeatedly either, though, since he loses his hit power if he gets it wrong. | ||
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On May 15 2011 07:17 tnkted wrote: "everything" roles (ie, inventor) Dts Medics (and jailer) information roles (tracker, watcher, etc, perhaps witch) Vet roles (including killproof roles like bulletproof) Killing roles role block/redirection roles (ie, busdriver, role reverser, NRA member, thief) Vote manipulation roles Does that seem right to everybody? If you rolecheck somebody and they're on the lower part of this list, the chance that they are scum rise dramatically. Looks about right to me, though jailer can also be very valuable for mafia since it blocks DT checks. Regarding masons, it looks like there is one mason circle consisting of a constant two people (regular Mason role) and one that expands randomly (Recruiting Mason). AoC + Recruiting Mason can potentially be VERY strong for scum, but it can also backfire if another scum gets RNG'd into the circle. Regular Mason doesn't look like a pro-mafia role at all. | ||
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Top picks go for the imba roles, such as inventor. High picks go for investigative roles Middle picks go for protection Low picks go for protection / random situational roles (just avoid the clearly mafia roles, of course) | ||
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On May 14 2011 10:28 KillerSOS wrote: Well I'm going with two mid range numbers. Dare you to guess them. On May 15 2011 13:53 KillerSOS wrote: I went with [5] [11] just fyi, i don't think 5 is midrange | ||
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For my group of people, try to draw from things like: Vig Mad Hatter Zombie is on the no-no list, but I personally think it can be valuable for town since the KP happens the night after death (i.e. there's time for discussion over who to use it on) Mafia 4 Hatter (I haven't seen this before, is it more pro-town or pro-mafia?) Copy Cat Day Vig | ||
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can save* a blue role | ||
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A robotic dog which can seek out gunpowder. If given to a person with a gun, it'll sneeze all night and notify everyone. If not, the person gets a onetime Bullet Bill check. | ||
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On May 16 2011 03:24 Fishball wrote: I like an item that reveals the number of moles in the game, the only unknown variable. This might not mean anything, but I think every time moles are referenced in the OP, it's "the mole," singular. | ||
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On May 16 2011 03:35 Radfield wrote: The key is not to find pro-town inventions per se, but rather to find pro-town inventions which are unambiguous. A robotic dog could kill a player when they try to use it, a broadcast tower could send a signal to explode a bomb inside a vest that the inventor handed out, etc. Anyways, this is all likely moot, as a townie inventor will probably get roleblocked, and a mafia inventor will just not invent, and claim they got roleblocked. Anyways, we have plenty of time to talk about this, as we have over 72 hours before the inventor has to invent. However, we do need to discuss the pro-town role list, and the 'no pick' list. Is there anything that doesn't belong, or should belong, on those lists?? I've said before that Copy Cat is potentially pro-town. We also had a long discussion about the masonic role which deemed that Agent of Chaos and Recruiting Mason aren't very good choices for mafia, even if used together. | ||
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On May 16 2011 07:13 bumatlarge wrote: Well considering you are Ace, I'd think you tell town you were mafia before anyone got close to that, just to brag. what if i ask on day 1 | ||
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On May 16 2011 07:10 Incognito wrote: Whoever gets Bad Santa should choose Ace Flamewheel Foolishness Dreamflower Incognito why | ||
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Just a random thought: Should people claim if they asked for a role and didn't get it? (Have people done this in past PYPs?) | ||
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On May 16 2011 14:20 Incognito wrote: Flamewheel please nuke GMarshal. Thanks. ##Vote Kurumi What the fuck? | ||
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On May 16 2011 14:45 flamewheel wrote: Hrm. Kurumi... what was your second number pick? y has nukes bro?  | ||
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On May 16 2011 15:43 Ace wrote: Anyone else that didn't claim numbers should soon. I'm surprised no one has made a big deal about number clashing yet like in PYP 1. With so many unique numbers at the top and a bunch of clashes from 16 on down I think focusing our investigations into the clashing sets is a good start. We somewhat have an idea of what should be in the top slots so if any bad actions that were already discussed happen we know where to look. It's possible that Incog + Flamewheel have noticed something about Kurumi's numbers, judging from the posts at the end of page 23. | ||
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On May 16 2011 16:33 flamewheel wrote: I don't, though my patriotism runs strong. Caller, your comment about Radfield not anti-American is gold, by the way. Interestingly enough, we could theoretically hunt out an America by having everybody type a nuke command in the thread, though it's not really worth it right now... Wait, why is this not worth it? o_o Is nuking yourself a valid option as America? On May 16 2011 14:20 Incognito wrote: Flamewheel please nuke GMarshal. Thanks. ##Vote Kurumi 1) FW said he doesn't have nukes. 2) I checked GMarshal's posts. He looks at Hero, Pardoner, and Cupid, but before alignment PMs are sent out. He asks for an exact role assignment pre-pick, which I admittedly do not like, and (perhaps coincidentally) position 6 is assigned Thief. He also makes a "threat list" which puts Chuiu Jack as pro-mafia and Vote Rigger as pro-town. I didn't look at anything deeply, but there are certainly some noteworthy flaws in logic. 3) A cursory (very cursory) inspection of Kurumi's posts revealed nothing in particular. There is a similar pattern of "not post very much, a couple medium posts and more short posts, not a lot of content in general" to KillerSOS and Node. On May 16 2011 17:03 Scamp wrote: Why did you answer a question that was asked of someone else? He didn't. Node was actually disagreeing with KillerSOS's assumption of where mafia would pick numbers. | ||
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I don't think we ever got an explanation for the accusation on KillerSOS (please correct me if I'm wrong). + random accusation on GMarshal and a vote on Kurumi with no backup either. + asking FW to nuke shit, although FW says he doesn't have any = me confused and suspicious. | ||
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On May 17 2011 07:15 Ace wrote: why do you keep panhandling to Flamewheel? Let him do his own thing. How are you even so sure he picked America? I asked this back on page 23. No response (as far as I saw). That's one of the biggest reasons my vote is on Incognito. | ||
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On May 17 2011 08:47 kitaman27 wrote: Is this where we're supposed to say "don't lynch him, he's the village idiot!"? sounds more like unabated apathy to me Deconduo, did you ask for an extreme anti-town role like you said you would? | ||
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On May 17 2011 07:04 Incognito wrote: Also we can check more than one list at a time. I highly doubt this is true. | ||
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On May 17 2011 09:18 deconduo wrote: If I was planning to pick VI I would hardly start off by saying 'I think I'll pick VI' I really am just a normal townie. Let's drop the WIFOM. | ||
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On May 17 2011 11:05 flamewheel wrote: I lost my post in the power outage today, though at this point it doesn't really matter. We'll come back to numbers and the draft order after the first round of deaths have gone through. A couple things to note right now. Unlike in TL Mafia XXXI, the Village Idiot does not end the game when lynched. The journalist power can also only be used once per cycle. So deconduo is pretty much being useless right now. Check him or shoot him at night if you're not going to lynch him now. Or lynch him--who cares? Also, I'm so glad nukes are public. Let me prove I'm not America. ##Nuke: infinitestory When no nuke kills my fellow staff member at the end of the day, we'll all be happy. Actually, that's not true. If somebody hypothetically had actually chosen America, they could launch the same nuke. Good luck with that, though--I can check and then shoot anybody foolish enough to do that in the following nights. Now just let me do my thing and check, protect, and/or shoot people at night. And I'm wondering if Ace and I noticed the same thing. :O If someone else tries to nuke me, they'll have to type it in anyway >_> | ||
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On May 17 2011 10:31 Eiii wrote: Oh man, decon just made himself the perfect placeholder vote candidate. Or maybe even a good lynch candidate! :D You need to post more gems like this. | ||
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On May 17 2011 11:42 dreamflower wrote: Also, I don't understand the case against Incognito either. Foolishness voted to lynch him because he wasn't being aggressive enough, but at least he had a reason, however shaky it seems; Incognito isn't playing the same as he did in one game when he was town. Now Ace seems to be voting for Incognito because he was being too aggressive and pointed a finger at someone. I may be missing something, but I don't see how merely being the first to accuse someone qualifies you as Mafia. Ace isn't even criticizing his idea of using rigged votes and votechecks or otherwise using heated, fervent arguments showing how Incognito's actions have been "total bullshit." He just became another finger-pointer based off one post, much like the people he was denigrating earlier. Not just one post. Incognito's made a good number of odd posts: 1) He mentioned specifically that he didn't have enough time to get deeply involved in the game, and yet 2) He seems to be doing enough analysis to accuse KillerSOS out of nowhere, ask for a hit on GMarshal, then vote Kurumi without any logic (and change to Chaoser based on some logic) 3) He doesn't back up his accusation on KillerSOS at all. This is like, 48 hours ago or something like that. 4) He asks Flamewheel to nuke GMarshal, and FW is pretty confident that he's not America. | ||
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On May 17 2011 12:29 Kavdragon wrote: In general i think that only mafia have something to fear from people applying pressure, as townies will be judged by their reactions. Incog telling pointing fingers and telling FW to nuke is exactly the sort of thing that generates discussion and information on people. do you realize that there is no way Incog could have known Flamewheel had America unless they were communicating outside of thread, + it looks like Incog is even wrong about it. That's not generating discussion, that's just distracting people, fishing for a claim, putting unreasonable suspicion on fw, etc. | ||
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On May 17 2011 12:33 citi.zen wrote:  Hi! Enjoying the show, I presume? | ||
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On May 17 2011 12:40 Kavdragon wrote: Of course FW didn't have a nuke. That was obvious to me from the moment that i saw incog request it. If they were communicating out of thread, then why would they be talking about it in thread? I 100% doubt that Incog thought FW had america either. It was all just a play to put pressure on GMarshal, something that I think was a good idea as he is one of the easier players to read. I would agree with this if Incog had a case before an accusation, like the horse before the cart. Instead, he just threw around accusations on players without any explanation at all. If I simply want players to talk more, there are certainly less aggressive/suspicious ways to do so. | ||
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On May 17 2011 10:31 Eiii wrote: Oh man, decon just made himself the perfect placeholder vote candidate. Or maybe even a good lynch candidate! :D You haven't been posting much, and you suddenly appear to simply bandwagon deconduo. Generally, placeholder votes are put on yourself, by the way; right now, it looks like you're just voting without caring who you're voting for. The lynch is important. It's a reliable way to weed out mafia, given that people vote intelligently. What is your reason for voting deconduo? Do you believe he is mafia? (If not, who are you watching?) | ||
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On May 17 2011 12:54 Kavdragon wrote: + Show Spoiler + Draft Order: 1. Flamewheel [3][3] 2. Scamp [7][11] 3. Caller [10][4] 4. Barundar [13][1] 5. Radfield 6. GMarshal [17][1] 7. Deconduo 8. Foolishness[1][1] 9. bumatlarge [1][18] 10. Kavdragon [2][1] 11. Chaoser [2][2] 12. Fishball [5][3] 13. KillerSOS[5][11] 14. Eiii [6][7] 15. Infinitestory [6][10] 16. Dreamflower [4][1] 17. Mr.Wiggles [4][2] 18. Original Name[4][6] 19. tnkted [4][12] 20. Chezinu [4][x] 21. Ace [9][11] 22. Kurumi [9][13] 23. Incognito[9][1] 24. Node [9][1] 25. kitaman27 [9][1] Is anyone else still wondering why all the 4's are behind the 5's and 6's? I thought about it, and I figured that it's because there were more 4s (5 of them to be exact), and that this was just not obvious from the example given. | ||
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On May 17 2011 13:17 Kavdragon wrote: Yes, but I've not been doing it at the same time. I pressured Node, and got a reaction: Two people also pressured him, and for the most part people didn't have that big of a problem with it. Node disappeared. I moved on. I called caller out on some stuff, and then pressured Mr.Wiggles. People started getting angry about the finger pointing. That's a reaction. I gained information from it. This makes me think that the mafia are getting uncomfortable with the finger pointing that's going on. Am I wrong? Random finger pointing is better for mafia than town, since it obscures legitimate arguments/reads and generally raises hell. I'd rather not do the mafia's job for them. I'd prefer a concentrated argument with logic behind it to four random accusations with no reasoning. | ||
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On May 18 2011 06:30 Barundar wrote: tnkted you can't vote for yourself, if you want to placehold you have to do it on someone else :/ I'm probably going to vote incognito, Ace makes the most sense to me. Got an hour before bed to see if anything changes. whoa holy- I apologize Eiii, it appears you read the rules better than I. On May 18 2011 07:02 bumatlarge wrote: Woah chez I read those games again, you have to PM me to tell me how to properly play like your mad right this instance. mfw PMs | ||
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Is your criteria for mafia "anyone who disagrees with me"? | ||
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On May 18 2011 13:03 Kavdragon wrote: Just got home hope this isn't late. In response to Incog's comparison of this game to XXXVIII: I got lynched. The guy who I was sure was mafia wasn't Mafia. Neither were you. Do you honestly expect me to repeat that same behavior? Also, since I won't be able to post this after my death: All newer players, please take note of the fact that Incog, Ace, and Caller all read me wrong. Vet's are not as good as anyone thinks, including themselves. The only thing you should be afraid of is their egos. Uhh, you're not leading in votes right now. In any case, I think this meta behavioral analysis that people have been badgering Kavdragon with is not a solid foundation for a case. Kavdragon's posts have sounded very genuine (key word here) to me, even if they've contained some bad arguments at times. | ||
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On May 18 2011 13:08 Node wrote: At the very least, we've got a pretty good split for the vote-checker.  If he exists. Day 1 is the worst time to draw premature conclusions. There are a lot of people here who are heavily depending on roles (especially the mafia 2 det) to carry the day. | ||
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Incognito leads in lynch votes with less than 3 hours left in Day 1. Ace unvotes Incognito, switching to Radfield. Suddenly, 3 more votes on Kavdragon. I feel like this is suspicious, but it also reeks of WIFOM. | ||
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On May 18 2011 14:05 chaoser wrote: woah woah wtf @ switch from incognito to Kavdragon. if you think that's weird, check out the votes after Ver's last vote tally | ||
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On May 18 2011 14:30 Incognito wrote: Anyone is not a good answer. Name someone specific please. Ooh! Pick me! | ||
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On May 18 2011 16:16 Barundar wrote: Well I miscalculated the night post and wrote my will 1½ instead of ½ an hour before lynch. In the meantime someone goes and switch the lynch to a third person. GG, would have been better to let me hang so you could go after suspicious votes on me like KillerSOS and Kitaman. You mean we can't do that now? | ||
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On May 19 2011 09:45 Radfield wrote: Well we need to talk about something. Here's some interesting tidbits: Everytime I read the name Chaoser, I pronounce it Chowsah in my head... Instead of seeing Infinitestory, I read Infestory. Like a pantry, but infested. Sorry for ruining your pantry I’ve been thinking about the way the town was spread all over the place in the last lynch. There were some very lonely votes, but there’s no reason to brand them as suspicious outright. In fact, I’d say that what happened is there were way too many targets being discussed for lynch, and people voted for which of the analyses seemed most correct. And damn, were there a lot of them. Of course, this doesn’t apply to the placeholder votes of tnkted and Mr. Wiggles. On the whole, though, the reason for the wide vote spread is the sheer number of suspects being discussed. It was just a matter of who was discussed the most. I’m certainly disoriented. There are a lot of arguments, but I don’t think I’ve seen a single cohesive argument that focuses on more than one piece of evidence (my own included – although I have even more reason to suspect Incognito based on the last 24 hours). As people have said (and I think Incog said this too), the mafia doesn’t really care about the Day 1 lynch. And they didn’t really need to do anything to the votes, since we were so disorganized and decentralized that the lynch was pretty RNG, based on who was accused the loudest (read: Kavdragon) With that said, here goes nothing. Incognito Not impressed with the number of people who see Incognito talking a lot and assume he’s town. On May 14 2011 13:31 Incognito wrote: Whoops I meant only KillerSOS is mafia. Node is fine. For now. Fifth post in thread. This was a whole 4 days ago. I still don’t know why Incognito could possibly gather enough to call out KillerSOS so early. The key point is the timing here. KillerSOS, at this point, has just a few posts himself, and I doubt Incognito could have gathered enough for such a sure statement. We’ll never know, though, since Incog NEVER gave his logic for this scum read. Even though I asked at least once. On May 16 2011 14:20 Incognito wrote: Flamewheel please nuke GMarshal. Thanks. ##Vote Kurumi To beat the dead horse here, but only for the sake of completeness: 1) GMarshal accusation. Out of nowhere, again. 2) Kurumi vote. Out of nowhere, again. 3) Claims FW has nukes. Out of nowhere, again. This is definitely false, seeing as I’m still here. Kurumi’s posts, up to this point, have sounded very pro-town, I believe. He’s been consistently putting his thoughts forward in full and making a very strong effort to explain them. On May 17 2011 07:04 Incognito wrote:+ Show Spoiler + On May 17 2011 05:14 Foolishness wrote: And as someone already pointed out, the obscene amount of number collisions on the bottom half of the draft give way to the idea that most mafia are probably in the top half. Hmm, who was that someone? Oh wait, it was me! On May 17 2011 05:46 GMarshal wrote: KillerSOS So, I did a search of all his posts in order to find any posts that were relevant to analyze, looking for something juicy. There is exactly nothing, he has posted nothing but one liners. I'll pull out the ones that seem relevant, but theres *nothing* there. Here are some examples of his great contributions + Show Spoiler [great contributions!] + On May 14 2011 10:28 KillerSOS wrote: Well I'm going with two mid range numbers. Dare you to guess them. Completely irrelevant post, also not true he picked [5] IIRC, which is not really midrange, usless post On May 15 2011 17:03 KillerSOS wrote: I like how 13 was near the top. Interesting. Contribution = 0 On May 16 2011 16:15 KillerSOS wrote: I also believe that clashes in numbers won't be that useful this early in the game. I'm sure that the mafia are smart enough to grab some top slots, while at the same time randomizing the other half of their members. First game relevant post, and all it does is shoot down a decent idea, without actually contributing anything, bravo, so far my "lurker" radar is going nuts. On May 17 2011 03:10 KillerSOS wrote: I think it's fairly obvious that you are just spitting out nonsense. Would you like to explain yourself? People are accusing me, quickly demand an explanation of why they think that my 8 posts are all contentless one liners! KillerSOS is lurking, and I've made my stance on lurkers clear in the past, hang them all! ##Vote KillerSOS Get in here and contribute or hang by the neck till dead, I'd rather you did the former, but if you refuse I have no issue hanging you for it. There are way worse posters than KillerSOS. And suddenly you want to hang him? This is so random...oh wait... Flamewheel, seriously just nuke this duder. To all of you voting me, just think how I could possibly be mafia for a second. I come out and post about the vote rigger/list check combo, that apparently nobody else was even thinking about. There is absolutely no reason for me to do this as mafia. So what's the explanation for my weird play? I'm in Chicago for the weekend. Ver/Foolishness/Flamewheel all know this. I don't have the time I need to play a proper Day 1 (which unfortunately is one of the most crucial parts of the game), but I should be able to play seriously starting tomorrow after I finish my midterm. Bumatlarge is also on the right track. Chaoser is a good vote too. Actually, wait, a better vote than Kurumi. I'll put Chaoser as 85% mafia. ##Vote Chaoser We can only check one list at a time, and while checking a small list is much more helpful, I see no reason why the voterigger needs to get involved to create one. If he messes with the votes, then we lose most of the information we would have gotten from the voting that cycle. If the voterigger is mafia, the worst he can mess us up is if he places and equal amount of mafia on each list. What we don't want is overlapping lists. Vote rigger does this most effectively. I mean, for all I care vote rigger can wait till the last second to use his power and give us the entire 48 hours to debate. We should still be good even if he uses his power. Also we can check more than one list at a time. Night 1 inventor should give a vote checking kit to a trusted townie who isn't likely to die tonight (*hint* - pick me). That gives us 2 instant list checks by day 2. To all of you whining about how we should stop focusing on list checks and start scumhunting, I disagree. Partially. We should do both. Scumhunting obviously takes priority, but we shouldn't neglect vote list checks. Although the situation currently isn't ideal, it is by no means terrible. There's plenty of time left in the day and already things are beginning to pop up. List of invisible posters: GMarshal Kurumi Radfield tnkted Anyways, got a plane to catch now. 17 hours later, apparently there are a lot worse posters than KillerSOS, and a vote on him WITH LOGIC is apparently enough for a FoS? Vacillation. Now there’s a theme you should keep in mind (for reference, vacillation means actively shifting back and forth on something.) Other things of note in this post: Foolishness Chaoser is suddenly a better vote than Kurumi. Another switch. Of course, this one I can understand, since I don’t know if he had any real logic against Kurumi anyway. Oh wait, another trend! Incog also mentions that he’s been busy, which is the reason for his inactivity. I buy this. What I don’t buy is how he managed to spew out so many reads already (KillerSOS red, GMarshal red, Kurumi scummy, Chaoser red, Foolishness green, so 5) without having the time to do this carefully. Around the point of this post, I started feeling that Incognito was definitely holding back, doing a lot of thinking out loud without thinking out loud. On the other hand, also here is the one piece of evidence I have that points toward a green Incognito: how incredibly hard he tunnels on the vote rigger-m2dt plan. So hard, in fact, that he misses the obvious way for a mafia vote rigger to screw everything up: rig it so everyone votes for the same target. On May 17 2011 16:21 Incognito wrote: Thesis: There is little mafia interference in the thread, and the mafia are playing very passively. Most of the active posters are likely to be town. I also believe that the thief is not an active role in this game. Due to the way the numbers turned out, it is likely that the mafia got enough top spots that they don’t need to steal roles. Also now that I’ve read Radfield’s posts (yes, I ignored them before), he’s likely town. But he’s still useless and so should be ignored. I repeat, Inventor should hand out a vote checking kit. This is by far better than bulletproof vests, bulletproof kits, or gunpowder detectors. Deconduo's vote actually makes sense. Stop trying to kill him. It is clear that some people are trying to push a sort of policy lynch. Please stop knee-jerk reacting and think for a moment before trying to lop off my head. Contrary to popular belief, mafia really have no reason to point fingers everywhere. Unless one of their own candidates is leading the vote and they desperately need an alternative. Really its up to the town to figure out the first lynch, so mafia could care less if town doesn't have any leads. Mafia is unlikely to have picked copycat, as thief is far superior. So really there's no reason to save Scamp if you think he's red. Which, makes sense if you read his posts. Radfield, from the start, has not been useless. His taboo role list was publicized enough that I hope every townie at least considered it, and therefore it’ll help us later on by greatly amplifying the power of the role check (heh). How could you possibly have ignored Radfield’s posts? Yet another trend: Incognito, in many of his posts, has been trying to lead the town toward role-based thinking rather than focused scumhunting. On May 18 2011 08:32 Incognito wrote:+ Show Spoiler + Everyone should be giving an opinion of me right now If you look at the thread, you'll notice that only a handful of people are popping up to accuse/defend me so far. Given how loud Ace et al are talking, I find it ridiculous that some people are popping in here without actually weighing in on this. We have people like GMarshal, who has said nothing of significance. Also Kavdragon, who has this strange fixation to defending himself without saying anything about me or pushing an alternative. Am I really that invisible? I hope not. Everyone who pretends I am invisible just wants to avoid being accountable for any sort of position. This is not something you can be unsure about. My posting this game has been so out of style that you MUST have something to say about it. The mafia want to avoid making an opinion. They want me dead, but they don't want to make it look obvious when they know I'll flip green. Some townies are naturally going to refrain from giving an opinion. After all, reading a few of my posts out there, I am pretty intimidating. But really, there's no reaso to be shy. Get out here and give your opinion. There is no reason to avoid this topic. Step 1: Identify town focus discussion - done. Its me. There are 2 discussion points that should be discussed from here on out. 1. There is now a referendum on Incognito. Everyone must weigh in. 2. Get the vote rigger to rig the votes if possible. If not, we need to do this ourselves. 1. It should be fairly obvious by now that I am town. Read over my posts again. The only real accusation against me is that I'm trying to cause chaos, therefore I'm mafia. But this post should put an end to that, because I'm basically calling a trial on myself and trying to consolidate the lynch. All this "lynch incognito because he is random voting" is bad reasoning. Mafia is a game about thinking. Choosing the easy way out by just policy lynching people who's play you don't like is sadly bad play in itself, even if Ace thinks he is awesome because of it. Also, sadly for us, policy lynching allows mafia to blend in with zealous pro-policy-lynch townies. 2. Here's why vote rigger should rig today's vote instead of just "spreading votes around a few candidates" to make checks. If we just "spread votes around", mafia have the luxury of being able to spread their votes out among the candidates and remain relatively safe from the vote checks. Secondly, the benefit of using the vote rigger is that we can separate the suspicious people from the innocents. Vote rigger doesn't randomly spread votes around. He places the more suspicious people on one list, while putting the strongest innocents on one list. If he did his job well, there is a strong possibility that the "innocents" list will show up with no mafia, thus giving us a big lead. Everyone stop freaking out about the vote rigger being anti-town. If the vote rigger is mafia obviously they're going to try to screw us up with it. Although it would be kinda difficult to do so. But if the vote rigger is town, what is there to fear? In any case, since we don't know if we have a vote rigger or not, we need to ensure that we get roughly good vote check lists in the event that we do not have a vote rigger, or he decides not to cooperate with us. So here are my proposed lines: Kavdragon - This list will consist of likely townies Caller Incognito Flamewheel Foolishness bumatlarge Radfield GMarshal Kurumi Ace tnkted infinitestory Dreamflower Deconduo KillerSOS Scamp - This list will consist of lurkers Chezinu Eiii OriginalName Fishball kitaman27 Chezinu - This list will consist of suspicious people Node Scamp GMarshal chaoser Barundar Kavdragon Key points to note: My posting this game has been so out of style Wait, I thought your inactivity was due to not having time for the game? You must certainly think your posting is out of the ordinary. I haven’t played a game with Incog before, so I don’t actually know if this is true. On the list of suspicious people is GMarshal + every other target brought up by the town at this point. I don’t know if Incognito really held all of these people in suspicion (which would be vacillation yet again), or he was trying to speak for the entire town. I’ll give the benefit of the doubt and say the latter. He posts revisions of these lists a couple more times later on. Lastly, Incog seems unusually convinced that he's the center of attention, being watched closely enough to be generally suspicious. I'm very sad that this referendum wasn't followed, actually. Oh wait. That's because, in the next hour, these two posts pop up, with Kavdragon's name in big red letters (unlike the rightful green letters). On May 18 2011 08:45 Incognito wrote: Excellent post. Maybe I should change GMarshal to Barundar for the vote list checks. Note that GMarshal occupied the spot with the most votes behind it. In other words, vacillation. On May 18 2011 09:29 Incognito wrote: For the sake of completeness, lets compare Kavdragon's play in XXXVIII and this game to XXXIV (Pokemafia). In Pokemafia, Kavdragon comes up with a long LSB accusation. Nice and all, except that he doesn't follow up. A few posts later, almost nothing is mentioned about LSB, and he goes off to vote some other random person. Compare to this game, where Kavdragon makes an accusation on Node, and then lets it get buried in the thread. Now I'm 100% certain Kavdragon will be lynched, so here's my suggestion. Keep the votes close among the 4 candidates, with Kavdragon in the lead. If any "save Kavdragon" agenda appears to be occuring, everyone has my full blessing to ignore the assigned vote lists and ensure that Kavdragon is lynched. This has been pointed out as well. The argument against Kavdragon was very shallow, but it was blown up excessively. I’m not even going to hold Kavdragon’s green flip against Incog. This argument is based on very flimsy logic, and it really makes a mountain of a molehill. On May 18 2011 12:03 Incognito wrote: My analysis is an extension of Caller's analysis. It is not all based on meta considerations. Mafia want to make it look like they're contributing without actually contributing. They want to look like they're being aggressive townies without having to be accountable for their actions. They want to push lynches without being fingered for starting the bandwagon. They want to appear to be leading lynches even though the lynches don't get anywhere. Kavdragon has done exactly that. He appears to be pro-town in attacking Node, even though he doesn't follow up on it and pretty much ignores it thereafter. Kavdragon is trying to hide the fact that he doesn't want to be responsible for any lynch. This is clearly what mafia want to do. The comparison to the XXXVIII and XXXIV games just solidify this line of reasoning. Kavdragon's behavior in past games lines up exactly with what we would expect a mafia to do. Please don't take the fact that I accused you earlier personally. Kavdragon is now my target. If you can look at this objectively I think you'll come to the same conclusion as I did too. blah ok Kurumi -> GMarshal -> chaoser -> Barundar might be good -> Kavdragon On May 19 2011 09:28 Incognito wrote: Ace and Foolishness don't deserve medic protection. Whoever is the Bullet Bill should check Eiii or Chaoser. Also reading over Radfield and Barundar's posts, I agree with the thesis that neither of the lynch candidates are mafia, and that the mafia probably wasn't heavily concerned about the lynch. This makes vote list checks that much more useless. I propose that Scamp give a gunpowder sniffing kit (that works like Bullet Bill) to someone instead of a vote list check kit. Individual checks are probably better right now than blanket checks. Besides, Mafia XII GF is the only mafia GF that can evade a BB check. Making bulletproof vests is useless. Its not like the inventor will even be able to guess who to give it to correctly. This is townie Ace who's too proud to do real analysis, or this is mafia Ace. The problem with Ace this game is that while he has been active in the thread and pushed an agenda, he hasn't taken the spotlight. He's piled everything up on me, and is content to sit back and yell the Incognito is scummy mantra. Ace isn't scumhunting. He's trying to lynch obvious townies who are just a bit out there. Ace is acting irrationally while trying to appear rational. He has a gun, so nobody's going to want to argue with him. Right? kitaman, please tell me why deconduo is confirmed anti-town whoops Foolishness doesn’t deserve medic protection suddenly, even though not so long ago he was for sure town. Also suddenly, ex post facto, Incog says neither of the lynch targets was mafia. That includes Kavdragon and Barundar. Whom he both called suspicious at some point in the day. That second-last paragraph has a good amount of irony. “not scumhunting” “trying to lynch obvious townies who are just a bit out there” “trying to appear rational” Conclusion: Incognito is literally all over the place. He calls people out for being inactive, not taking risks. He himself, on the other hand, takes many so-called “risks.” In the sense that he FoSes, votes, or otherwise voices suspicion for about twice as many people as there are on the mafia team. In one day. In this sense, Incog is the most noncommittal player in the entire game to this point. And commitment is a large risk in and of itself. Additionally, Incog assumes that his posting is being watched closely by many people, and that he is the central focus of the town on Day 1. That doesn't seem like a town attitude to me. | ||
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did you bother to look at any of the votes yesterday | ||
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On May 19 2011 13:13 KillerSOS wrote: Blue Inventor down Wonder what his invention does? Good question. I thought we asked for something unambiguous >_____> Looking at something through rose-colored glasses means perceiving it as better than it is. This seems to indicate some sort of checking item, perhaps it'll take a mafia read and verify/deny it? | ||
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Vote mirrored here as requested. | ||
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On May 19 2011 13:38 Fishball wrote: Please refresh my memory, if you did announce your role. You're the Chuiu Jack, no? So if you used your veteran ability last night, what is this "clue" thing you are referring to right now? His veteran ability is identical to Caller Veteran, which receives a clue about the attacker. | ||
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On May 19 2011 13:43 Eiii wrote: I think it's pretty likely the second KP came from mafia as well. The hits went to the #1 and #2 drafted players and I don't think flamewheel was a huge vig target or anything. Because Scamp was the mafia hit for sure, right? (actually, if one of the hits was a vig, I think it would more likely be Scamp. I do agree that both hits were mafia, though.) | ||
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On May 19 2011 13:56 Mr. Wiggles wrote: And guys, I'd just like to let you all know I'm king today too. :p What is this supposed to mean? If you were king yesterday, you would have been forced to publicly lynch someone, and that clearly didn't happen. | ||
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On May 19 2011 14:02 Mr. Wiggles wrote: What? I wan't king yesterday, I'm king today. Ahh, that "too" registered in a funny way in my head. | ||
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Also, Can the journalist force Mr. Wiggles to ##lynch a certain target? | ||
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On May 19 2011 14:29 Eiii wrote: Can you explain what you're thinking here? Scamp was assigned the inventor role, he didn't make any sort of indication that he wouldn't take it, and then took it and played pretty normally. I don't see why anyone but mafia would off him :/ Scamp didn't claim his inventor role + somehow a bunch of people marked him as suspicious. Still, I'm not saying that Scamp was killed by a townie hit. At least, I hope no townie was dumb enough to. | ||
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On May 19 2011 15:00 Caller wrote: infinitestory the main problem with your analysis is that it seems a little bit too perfect. Almost as it if was a bus attempt. I'm not sure why, but I get that vibe for some reason. Probably will make a more rigorous analysis later today. If this analysis is bulletproof enough that it looks like a bus attempt, that only makes me more confident. It's definitely not perfect, nor is it a bus attempt, though. I can't explain him tunneling on the vote rigger / m2dt combo, as I stated in the analysis. As for this being a bus, I've been questioning Incog's posts since he first said KillerSOS was mafia way back when, and I don't reckon the mafia would start orchestrating a bus before the pick order comes out. Incognito's not exactly a prime choice for a bus either. | ||
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On May 19 2011 16:06 flamewheel wrote: Untrue for two reasons. Assume Mafia stole Inventor using the Thief. What happens then is Scamp would show up as vanilla in the flip. Furthermore, his invention could not have been made or given to anybody--the Thief prevents the usage of the role before it is stolen at the end of the night. Does anybody else care who Scamp gave the invention to? I'm worried that if the recipient claims, he'll be killed before he can report the invention's results. I think we can be certain it's a pro-town function, so all I can say is: To whoever received those glasses, please use them with the utmost judgment. | ||
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On May 20 2011 02:28 Incognito wrote: See? Something turned up. Given how the last few pages turned out I'm pretty confident the recent posters are town. I wouldve expected maybe 1 player on the Kavdragon lynch to actually be mafia, but I guess there's two. At this point, my guess is on Chezinu and Caller. Feel free to lynch me. But I seriously doubt you'll be able to, once I do the exact opposite of what the mafia would want to do. ##Nuke Chezinu Everyone should agree that getting rid of Chezinu is a pro-town move. Especially now that there is a vote check on the Kavdragon lynch. Now seriously, what mafia would shoot into a vote list that has 2/6 red on it? Unless of course I am conspiring with GMarshal to screw over the town, this doesn't make any sense. But then again, conspiring with GMarshal doesn't make too much sense either if I'm announcing that option. Furthermore, it makes no sense for mafia to take America. Especially after Radfield proclaimed it an anti-town role. But if you think about it, its the most transparent role in the game. There's no way for me to hide from a misuse of the role, and its not like I can use it to kill blatant townspeople without significant backlash. Frankly put, America is a ridiculous option for mafia. There are way better KP roles for them to use. So feel free to pile your votes on me now. Nobody else type the nuke command. When Ver confirms that a nuke has been launched, you can all take your votes off me, ok? I'll be back later with some more thoughts. + Show Spoiler + Funny thing I saw a couple days ago in the news: "IMF chief's arrest stirs up anti-Americanism in France" Seems fitting, huh Radfield? I don't believe in changing the accepted "alignment" of the America role as soon as you've got it. If you really believed this as a town member, you should and would have posted it back when we did picks, when America was generally accepted as a banned role. Methinks this is a hastily concocted argument designed to make this action look as pro-town as possible, especially in lieu of any discussion on who to target with your nuke. On May 20 2011 11:47 chaoser wrote: Yes. I shelve my suspicions of Incognito for now. Where's your scum hunting foolishness? http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=218973¤tpage=27#522 This? http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=218973¤tpage=27#526 This? http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=218973¤tpage=40#783 This? http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=218973¤tpage=47#923 This? How about you prove your own usefulness. A lot of the charges you level at Incognito you yourself are guilty of. How are you being useful? You said dec was obv green and that you wanted to help lynch a more obvious mafia but you don't try at all to push for incognito's lynch. You make offhand remarks and you show support for his lynch but you never make a real argument for it even though you're one of the main people pushing for it. Where's the Foolishness from XXXVII? You're a good townie but a horrible mafia. Show me how good you can be or it's light out yo. Please, guys, stay off Foolishness a little bit. The two accusations on him are: 1) he's acting different from normal and 2) he's posting with very little content. 1) This could be valid, I don't know. Please remember that relying too much on this got Kavdragon mislynched. 2) isn't even particularly well-directed. There are a lot more under-the-radar posters (dreamflower, Eiii, KillerSOS especially), as others have said. If anyone wants to do an analysis that isn't 90% meta, be my guest - Foolishness isn't on my radar. On May 20 2011 00:13 GMarshal wrote: Who cares about "safety"? I thought we were here to lynch scum, which is by definition not "safe". Your wording jumps out at me, in a negative way. Do you mean that you think incog is more likely to be mafia? Right now I'm leaning Node as one of the mafia, his lurking behavior is extremely suspicious to me. Id *really* like it if we could have wiggles lynch Chezinu as analysis isn't going to get us anywhere with the "content" of his posts, and frankly I'd rather not have to worry about him being the bomberman and accidentally saying his codeword. Agreed. Looking for the safest route isn't really a pro-town attitude. I'd say I'm reading too deeply into this if not for KillerSOS's past actions (including the mostly unexplained vote on Barundar, iirc) | ||
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On May 20 2011 13:50 infinitestory wrote: I don't see any way to stop the America nuke, so there's no point keeping anything at all hidden. If you're town, and you didn't get a role, you should tell us what you went for; if you did get a role, please claim. And as for Martyr, I think it only stops lynches, and the nuke doesn't seem to qualify as a lynch. If you play LoL, it's like how you can't cleanse a suppress. | ||
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On May 20 2011 13:48 OriginalName wrote: Another easy conveinience is Incogs nuke on Chezinu. He gets a suspect in a group of suspects then shoots him to mske him look pro-town despite some very convincing evidence against himself. In all honesty we are likely being distracted at the moment and should be lynching him regardless, However we could also no-lynch and just have wiggles kill incog. Im not quite sure who it was that said bussing is an ineffective stratagy, but i couldnt agree less however bussing is generally much better when your trying to avoid being detected in the first place. Bussing Chezinu to save Incog really isn't worth it however if it had been the other way around who knows. Tldr: Lyncg Incog with kingmaker lynch, hes trying to save his own ass. On May 20 2011 03:39 Incognito wrote: Just think about it for a second. Its pretty obvious that even if Chezinu flips mafia, people will still be skeptical. Like has been said many times, bussing isn't really that effective for mafia. If Chezinu was mafia, why would I bus him? >____> | ||
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Of course not the scummiest in my eyes, but pretty suspicious. | ||
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On May 21 2011 00:28 Barundar wrote: The problem with the incog bandwagon since day 1 has been noone really took responsability for it. It has been several weak votes votes that simply met little resistance. Yesterday i kept hoping for ace or foolishness to point out what exactly it was that deemed incog mafia, but they never did. Both of them also switched votes (or in foolishness' case tried) near the end indicating a nowhere near strong case. Today it has been more of the same, with suspicious people like chaoser simply requesting that we stuck to discussing the same targets as yesterday. When incog claims america he is met with an attitude of "you knew you where gonna be suspicious, so you picked the most obvious role no mafia would pick to fool us. Calling your bluff!", which is obviously a bs WIFOM argument. The problem with this statement is that Incog's logic for rationalizing his America pick is even more WIFOM to begin with. Also, I took responsibility for the case against Incog when I posted this: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=218973¤tpage=46#917 I do, however, agree that Incog’s reaction was very pro-town. I’m sticking to my analysis, though. Bumatlarge, why did you pick Watcher? It’s so terribly vague that I can’t help but feel it’s useless. Feel free to prove me wrong. On May 21 2011 03:26 Meapak_Ziphh wrote: Hi ppl I love you. Hi, but On May 16 2011 14:22 Meapak_Ziphh wrote: Amazing day post Ver That’s so scummy, you even used the lurk smiley!!111 My reads on the Kavdragon list: GMarshal – That M2DT claim is pretty sound. I’m not going to forget the weird Kavdragon vote switch, but in my mind, the rest of GMarshal’s actions have been relatively pro-town. I think he’s town. Chezinu – So I asked him to help out Town by claiming. No response. I’m guessing he’s a mafia who’s given up on life. Node – Haven’t seen a solid argument against him; the people who say Node is scummy seem to be using the same logic as against Foolishness, which I don’t buy. No read. Caller – Has been posting with a pro-town attitude, even if not much. I think he’s been doing his best to lead the town in the right direction, especially by focusing us down on this list (Even if we RNGed it, 2/5 is WAY better than 6/23, and it helps to keep the town from getting distracted like on Day 1) @Accusations on Chaoser: I thought the Foolishness wagon was bad, but up until Bumatlarge’s post, I saw no valid reasons provided for accusations against Chaoser. Bum does have a very legitimate point with Chaoser’s defensive attitude, although to be fair Chaoser has been taking a flood of shitty accusations. I see so many people saying that “his general posting style” indicates scumminess and saying he doesn’t require an analysis. I want to see one, or I’m not buying this. To avoid being a hypocrite, here goes nothing yet again: KillerSOS First thing I notice when I filter KillerSOS’s posts is that he has around 35 posts. Except, I’m pretty sure this post alone is bigger than all 35 of his put together. I'm sorry, but I am really going to have to draw conclusions on thin evidence (although the absence of evidence will turn out to be evidence, in this case). Jesus Christ, this guy REALLY doesn’t like posting anything long. Or valuable, as it turns out: Around number picking time: On May 14 2011 10:28 KillerSOS wrote: Well I'm going with two mid range numbers. Dare you to guess them. This post actually didn’t raise any flags by itself. However, what did raise a flag for me is the fact that he picked [5][11] in the end. 5 is NOT a midrange number. This tells me one of a few things: 1) he’s trying to deceive everyone, 2) he doesn’t really care about what the town knows, or 3) he couldn’t settle on numbers before posting. The first two are pretty scummy, so I’ll go with the third one for benefit of the doubt. On May 16 2011 16:15 KillerSOS wrote: I also believe that clashes in numbers won't be that useful this early in the game. I'm sure that the mafia are smart enough to grab some top slots, while at the same time randomizing the other half of their members. One odd aspect of this post is that he assumes the strategy he states is “smart.” He’s clearly put at least some thought into mafia number picking strategy. There are reasons for picking all low numbers and reasons for going all random, as well as a million other strategies. But this one is smart. The reason I’m reading into this so much is because there is almost nothing to fucking read into at all. On May 17 2011 03:10 KillerSOS wrote: I think it's fairly obvious that you are just spitting out nonsense. Would you like to explain yourself? Kinda like an OMGUS, except without votes. Instead of explaining himself, KillerSOS redirects attention onto Scamp himself in a pretty antagonistic way. I really do NOT like the attitude of this post. KillerSOS has no reason at this point to be so virile at Scamp; there aren’t any strong accusations. On May 18 2011 14:10 KillerSOS wrote: Wow, that was a quick swap to Kav. Makes me a bit nervous. On May 18 2011 14:13 KillerSOS wrote: Well that was unexpected. ..Not This is after the Day 1 Lynch. This pair of posts gives me bad vibes, as if he was watching the lynch closely and didn’t bother to post until 1 minute before the Day post. By the way, his last post before these two was 22 hours before. On May 18 2011 14:32 KillerSOS wrote: What's wrong with being on the Incognito list? I don't see how Kav flipping town proves you're a townie. This is actually a legitimate post! I’m proud. On May 19 2011 03:44 KillerSOS wrote: Yeah man, knowing the lynch on Kev was wrong automatically makes me suspicious. Or it could just make me intelligent, who knows? Once again, a passive-aggressive response to town pressure. A response without a response. KillerSOS is trying to shuffle off accusations without saying anything for himself at all. On May 19 2011 14:36 KillerSOS wrote: Why would you share that you are king? That's a dangerous thing to tell us. This is very true. KillerSOS is the first to bring up that revealing kingship is dangerous (namely because of the possibility of a day roleblock and journalist). He’s clearly thought about the consequences of the Kingmaker, although that doesn’t necessarily mean from a mafia standpoint. But even so, he does enough thinking to come to this conclusion, and gives a barebones statement like this? I don’t like KillerSOS’s policy of hiding as much from town as possible. On May 19 2011 23:07 KillerSOS wrote: Is it not a safe bet to ride the "Lynch the Incog" train? He was already a high profile target Day 1 and really hasn't done anything to improve his image. If we take what GM says at face value we are getting great odds at a mafia lynch. The only issue is that even if the lynch flips blue that doesn't prove anyone else red at this point. There are no real connections between any of those players. His last post in thread. That’s THIRTY-THREE AND A HALF hours ago. On top of that, as I said before, the attitude of taking the safe route and trying to ride bandwagons is absurdly scummy. Conclusion: This guy has SO many posts that literally add nothing. A bunch of them aren’t even relevant to gameplay, and some play Captain Obvious. When pressured, KillerSOS either goes straight into full-on aggressive defense, or turtles for thirty hours. Neither is a pro-town response whatsoever. I don’t think he can provide an inactivity excuse, since his votes have been rather timely. KillerSOS is actively trying to minimize himself as much as possible, to a ludicrous degree. I don’t even think a scared townie would go this far. I was going to put all his useless posts into a spoiler dump pile, but I decided it wasn't worth the effort. | ||
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On May 21 2011 09:18 Radfield wrote: Reading that analysis of KillerSOS makes me think he just terrible, and not scum at all. However, I've certainly played with players on my scum-team who posted like that. I think we should shoot Killer, and vote normally. We get very little info from a KillerSOS vote, regardless of flip. We get all sorts of info from a Incog/Node vote no matter what. I can certainly see why you'd say that. One of the biggest reasons I think he's scum is his response to pressure: he either fires back briefly at the accuser, or he just vanishes. The former may be terrible town play, but I can't see a townie simply disappearing as calls for his lynch rise. | ||
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On May 21 2011 09:24 kitaman27 wrote: You are contradicting yourself. If you believe the Incog/Node flip would give more information than a Killer flip, why shoot Killer first? Wouldn't it be better the other way around? I think he means the vote lists from an Incog/Node lynch would be more telling than vote lists from a KillerSOS lynch. | ||
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PYP Tracker gives very concrete and unique information. I'm pretty sure we can work out a plan to confirm this role quickly. | ||
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On May 21 2011 10:06 KillerSOS wrote: Checked Ace since he was near the bottom and had a high probability of being vanilla. did you completely miss the several times Ace said he had a gun + tracking a vanilla town does nothing, and we didn't exactly try to deny mafia, so it's likely that any low mafia also have roles. | ||
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On May 21 2011 10:42 Incognito wrote: False. I don't trust the list check. I think someone was framed. isn't that a direct contradiction to saying "it's 2/5 if chezinu is town" | ||
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On May 21 2011 11:53 Radfield wrote: On Incognito: Incognito is town. There are no two ways about it. I've thought about this some more, and theres just no way he's scum. Looking back on Day 1, Incog was sitting with about 5 votes, decon with 3 and Barundar had just gotten 2 after my case against him. The idea that Incog would try to save himself by building a case against Kavdragon, a player with zero votes, is ludicrous. I had given him a clear route to attack Barundar(he even agreed with my analysis at the time) and a concerted effort against Decon would probably have more success. The idea that he would go and pick a random townie with zero votes to build a case on is seriously stupid.... unless of course he was town, and actually thought that. This is false, by the way. When Incog began building his case on Kavdragon, Caller had already made a couple posts against Kav and voted for Kav. As for Node, I trust his Inventor claim. The breadcrumbing looks pretty solid, especially the post Wiggles pointed out. Whether he's town or not - I'm undecided. But what matters is that now that we know Node is the new Inventor, we know who to hold responsible for the inventions. Inventor is a pretty transparent role, as has been stated many times. Let's get some inventing going once this lynch is done. | ||
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On May 21 2011 12:34 Ace wrote: hmmmm something fishy is going on in that voting thread. Just like yesterday with the last minute wagon on Kav, now everyone is "convinced" KillerSOS is the right lynch over Incognito. I don't like this at all. yeah because the people who think Incognito is town have been the most active in the last couple hours... it's as simple as that, I think. | ||
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the more you know | ||
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thats a daytime bus driver -_- | ||
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damn | ||
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well done ver, now this is insane | ||
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FoS: Radfield. Exact same reasons as Ace. | ||
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On May 18 2011 08:26 deconduo wrote: Nope, its a secret formula that I'll tell you after todays lynch. That reminds me, you never did tell me this. | ||
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On May 22 2011 12:31 bumatlarge wrote: Just saying there are a few people who have random votes that stayed off the votelist, so checking incog's should read 0 mafia if he is scum. Why wouldn't it unless the mafia played extremely risky. because chaoser voted for incog | ||
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Both Foolishness and Chez have confirmed the link (or at least, Foolishness has addressed it without denying it). | ||
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##Lynch: Chezinu | ||
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On May 22 2011 13:34 Foolishness wrote: I thought we were going to have whoever is king kill Chezinu. Shouldn't we be focusing on someone else to lynch? -__________- | ||
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On May 22 2011 15:12 GMarshal wrote: Sorry for the late post guys, I checked the Incognito list. 1 of Ace, infinitestory, Foolishness, Chaoser, Barundar is scum. The rest are townies, or cleverly disguised mafia. My bet is chaoser Take this as a "fuck you" mafia for not killing me. Now I have to substantiate all that stuff I said in what was supposed to be my last post. Oh and ##Vote: Caller The list has spoken. uhh, do you mean Ace, infinitestory, Foolishness, Chaoser, bumatlarge, Caller, Chezinu, KillerSOS or perhaps Ace, infinitestory, Foolishness, Chaoser, bumatlarge, Caller or was the list heavily tinkered with? | ||
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On May 22 2011 23:26 Radfield wrote: I'm not wholly convinced that the kingmaker is anti-town at this point. So far his actions have seemed confusing to me if he was mafia aligned. Giving IS the lynch today could be a way to have boosted IS's townie-cred by bussing Chez, but that seems strange. Everything surrounding the kingmaker so far has seemed strange. Particularly taking kingmaker without taking politician. Caller, if this is your troll role, I think you should claim, as that would actually make sense. Other than that, I can't really imagine why a pro-town player would take kingmaker, but still... I'm confused. Am I missing a piece of the puzzle? Can anyone clear this up for me? If the Kingmaker is town, he probably trusted me to kill Chez without hesitation, which I did. If the Kingmaker is mafia, he probably expected me to hesitate, and then the mafia could push me toward a town target and off Chez. I don’t think hitting mafia with Chez boosts my townie-cred at all, seeing as I was just doing what we agreed on during the night. I also agree that – DEPENDING ON THE RESULTS OF THE RADIO – Caller should claim, and nobody else. Caller, you seem to be trying to dodge a roleclaim as much as possible. If we get a counterclaim, we're at least going to think about it: there are people in this town who aren’t made of wool. Caller, there are 6 mafia. The mole is included in that count, and the Traitor is not. The traitor shows up as green to alignment checks, including votechecks. In addition, if the Mole is on either of GM’s first two checks, he will also have shown up as green. I agree that the whole Foolishness-Chez exchange was incredibly suspect. Foolishness, if he wasn’t your lover, why didn’t you just flat out deny it and incriminate him once and for all? Instead, you did some wishy washy thing where you even said “we” at first. I’m all shifty eyes at this. @Ace: There are actually a couple cases. 1) Mafia doesn’t have a RB. 2) Radfield is mafia. 3) Mafia simply believed there were better targets. Lastly, I can guarantee GMarshal’s list won’t be the only one the Police Radio reveals. Caller GF, when held by a townie, is an alignment DT. We’ll get Barundar’s last words as well. | ||
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2/10 on the KillerSOS list were mafia, and one was tnkted. That leaves us with 1/9, which is pretty damn sweet. It's not perfect, but there's a large number of townies on that list. | ||
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On May 23 2011 04:39 kitaman27 wrote: Bum lied about his watcher claim. OR watcher doesn't count as a detective for the purposes of the radio. Do Watcher and (doesn't really matter) Tracker count as Detective roles for the purposes of Police Radio? | ||
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On May 23 2011 04:36 Mr. Wiggles wrote: So, between these two lists, we have 3 unique scum, as there's literally no cross-over. Doesn't that also mean that out of Bumatlarge, Caller, GMarshal, Fishball there are 2 scum, based on who's alive + scum counts? That does NOT sound right to me, especially since GMarshal is as good as town right now. I suspect there's one mafia out of Bumatlarge, Caller, Fishball, (guess who I think it is) and the mole is hiding somewhere in those two votelists. | ||
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On May 23 2011 04:47 infinitestory wrote: Doesn't that also mean that out of Bumatlarge, Caller, GMarshal, Fishball there are 2 scum, based on who's alive + scum counts? That does NOT sound right to me, especially since GMarshal is as good as town right now. I suspect there's one mafia out of Bumatlarge, Caller, Fishball, (guess who I think it is) and the mole is hiding somewhere in those two votelists. This is another reason I think this framing claim is bogus. If there were any framing in the two lists here, then AT LEAST two of bumatlarge, caller, GMarshal, fishball are mafia no matter what. | ||
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On May 23 2011 06:40 deconduo wrote: Hmm, we can assume that the comparison DT is town as well as its a completely useless role for mafia. I'm interested as to why Ace checked GMarshal, that too seems like a waste if he actually is mafia. Maybe its just WIFOM but it seems like a strange move. I don't think it was Ace doing the rolecheck. Ace killed Incognito. | ||
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On May 23 2011 06:44 deconduo wrote: I don't see what other role has a rolecheck? Maybe I'm missing something though. Role Cop: Pretty sweet. You get people's roles! | ||
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On May 23 2011 06:47 Mr. Wiggles wrote: Barundar couldn't have been the alignment check. It says the conversion, which works as an alignment check, is a night 3 ability. Meaning, we have an alignment DT. I disagree with your interpretation of the wording, but to be sure: Does a townie Caller GF get to use his Alignment DT ability from the start? I'm kinda surprised we don't seem to have a Modern Detective. That role is pretty OP for town. | ||
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On May 23 2011 08:16 GMarshal wrote: ^_^ Can I request he check Caller tonight? If he finds him town he should let us know, so we know there is a framer at play. If he is scum then we can trust our list checks to be mostly reliable, at least at finding scum. If the DT would rather do something else then we probably have no choice but to lynch Caller tomorrow, which I would rather not do, as lynches for information are terrible play. or framer, if he exists, will just frame Caller, and we're right back at square 1 >____> | ||
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I'm the parity cop -_____________-. I checked myself because the parity cop is weak against the mole (because he flips at the start of Day 3) - think about how the Parity Cop works. Eiii is "same" as me. | ||
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On May 25 2011 13:41 chaoser wrote: woahhh, flamewheel is blue! You didn't gather that from his death post? + Show Spoiler + ;P | ||
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I think Mafia 2 DT was only overpowered because mafia hadn't taken many misinformation roles. GF/framer type roles have a bigger chance of affecting listchecks than single target checks. As mafia, I would have tried to take Mafia 2 DT and just spread around lists that are *almost* correct. The town seemed tied up by the listchecks a lot, and didn't really assume the possibility of framer/GF type roles, so it's lucky there weren't any. I'm still mindblown as to how town managed to pick so many unique roles. I think the only reason Mafia 2 DT was picked by so many people is because the M2DT/Vote Rigger combo was discussed in depth pre-pick. We somehow managed to get a huge number of investigative roles, including the strong ones (Modern Detective, NKVD, Parity Cop, Role Cop), and I think there's a good amount of luck involved there. On the flip side, people not having time to be fully invested early on made it tougher for town. Incog's scant posting on Day 1 made me very wary (and I still think his early posting habits were pretty scummy), which unfortunately let Caller and Ace bandwagon pretty easily. I do remember noting at one point that Caller said "Let's stop thinking and just lynch Incognito," and from that point on I was suspicious. Similarly, KillerSOS being away for two days got him killed unnecessarily. If he had just claimed earlier, we would have had time to at least get a new target. PYP Tracker isn't easily faked by mafia, and it isn't useful for them at all. I personally think I played kinda meh. I focused on posting habits a little too much, I think, and I was too daunted by the sheer number of possible mafia roles. I also got too easily thrown off by the clusterfuck of finger pointing on Day 1, since I usually take it upon myself to read and absorb everything in the thread. | ||
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