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On May 11 2011 02:50 Radfield wrote: + Show Spoiler [Rules] + *note: There is a new rule in place. In the event that your first AND second numbers clash with another player you both go straight to the bottom of the order. So if 3 players picked [4][1], [4][1] and [4][7] the 2 players with [4][1] are bumped below the player that picked [4][7] along with the original bump. All in All the most unique number combination gets priority. Draft Order Question: When two players pick the exact two numbers, [4][1] and [4][1], would they drop ALL the way to the bottom of the draft, or just below the player who picked [4][7]? If 6 numbers were chosen: A [4][1] B [4][1] C [4][7] D [8][1] E [8][2] F [10][1] Would the order be: F [10][1] C [4][7] D [8][1] E [8][2] A [4][1] B [4][1] Or would it be: F [10][1] C [4][7] A [4][1] B [4][1] D [8][1] E [8][2] My assumption is the former, but I just figured I'd check. Actually it would be: F [10][1] D [8][1] E [8][2] C [4][7] A [4][1] B [4][1] | ||
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GMarshal Kitaman27 tnkted Bum's post is on spot. Fortunately, I already mapped out some stuff. PYP Insane Game Plan The optimal picking strategy revolves around this cute little role: Thief You have the ability to steal the role of a specific player one time per game at night, meaning they lose their role and become vanilla, while you gain it. If you steal from a vanilla player, nothing happens to them and you gain nothing. You cannot steal the role of a traitor or mole. Neither you nor they may not use their role the cycle you steal from them. The following cycle after you steal you can use their role freely with the same limits taken from them. For example if the vote rigger already used his double lynch before you stole it, you will not be able to use it. This role obsoletes the PYP1 and PYP3 role picking strategies. The mere existence of the thief on the role list means that it would be seriously harmful for mafia to know where the good roles are. Of course, it’s a no brainer that the good roles are in the beginning part of the list. So my only advice is that if you’re in the beginning of the list, seriously consider picking a role such as NRA member or Meth Man to deter the mafia from hitting/stealing roles from the top of the list. Due to the fact that the mafia can coordinate numbers with each other while the town can’t, it is very likely that mafia will get a spot within the top 3. As shown by the past PYP games, mafia has gotten the first or second spot in all 3 games. Which means town will likely have to be on the defensive, as it is hard to guarantee that we can effectively deny mafia the thief role. The amount of potential KP in this game is huge. This means that there is a huge potential for the game to end quickly. The basic town strategy should be to avoid KP roles, while going heavy on investigative and defensive roles to try to prolong the game. Tier I Roles Mafia 2 Detective + Vote Rigger Inventor Chuiu Jack Modern Detective Role Cop Bullet Bill PYP3 Veteran Doctor Bulletproof Mafia 2 Detective combined with the Vote Rigger is a combo that allows us to break up the town into chunks and analyze with greater ease. The formula is simple. The Vote Rigger rigs the Day 1 Vote into 4 roughly equal blocks with 7, 6, 6, and 5 voters each. All the lurkers/suspicious people are piled onto one list, and the Modern Detective uses his vote check to check one vote block each day, starting with the lurkers. Town then proceeds to analyze the split lists, allowing for more focused analyses. The rest of the investigative roles are used to sort through the lists, while the defensive roles prolong the game and squeeze the mafia. The Mafia will want these roles Kingmaker + Politician Thief Caller Godfather Roleblocker Janitor JailKeeper Puppeteer Hero PYP3 Veteran NRA Member CPR Doctor The best mafia combo pick is Kingmaker + Politician. This effectively gives mafia an unlimited anonymous unblockable dayvig power, capable of sniping off all the top town players. Caller Godfather is also an obvious mafia role. As anyone who’s read Caller’s Mafia V knows, Godfather recruiting high level townies with good roles is a town’s worst nightmare. Denying this role is iffy, as a mafia thief has plenty of time to try to find the role and steal it before it can actually be of use. Jailkeeper, roleblocker, and NRA member are powerful roles for the mafia that prevent investigations, and potentially save mafia from NKs. Hero and PYP 3 veteran cause town pain when mafia slip out of lynches and snipe off a townie. Lastly, puppeteer is surprisingly useful for a good mafia arguer, as it allows them to anonymously mislead town and cause tons of chaos in the thread. However, the most critical roles that we need to deny are the Thief, Politician, Jailkeeper, and Roleblocker. Due to the threat of a mafia thief, we can’t discuss precise strategy here, but townies should strongly consider picking one of these 4 roles. By the way KillerSOS is mafia. Also Node is mafia. | ||
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On May 14 2011 13:21 bumatlarge wrote: Town roles Bad Santa Emperor - Do NOT pick this role. At best, its weak role. At worst, it destroys our ability to use the vote rigger/Mafia 2 Detective combo day 1. If anyone picks this role, that is an auto-sign of anti-town. I mean, this role isn't that fun anyway, I don't know why you'd want it. Priest - Due to the setup, this isn't a strong role. This game has a ton of potential for high KP, which makes resurrected townies less valuable. I'd rather have protective roles. Secondly, with high KP being thrown around, the chance that the priest dies before being able to resurrect is high Kingmaker - As I noted in my previous post, this is a strong mafia role. In town's hands, its mediocre at best. The kingmaker has to give it to townies, which could be hard as the game goes on (can't give it to someone twice unless everyone is cycled through, which means the chance of mafia getting it is higher as time goes on.) Bodyguard Assassin Bullet Bill Mafia 2 Detective Mafia roles Hero Janitor Thief Journalist Role Reverser Hider - Infinitely less powerfull than PYP3 veteran, jailkeeper, or bulletproof Bus Driver Vote Rigger Useful for the mafia, but not top priority for them. Unless they want to stop our strategy Politician Mafia XII Godfather - Too weak for mafia, as there are better options Caller Godfather Pardoner Prince o Darkness Roleblocker Agent of Chaos - The role is only useful if recruiting mason is picked. Mafia won't pick this because if town doesn't pick recruiting mason, this role is useless. They have much better options. Town shouldn't pick this role anyway though. I didn't include things that would be ovbiously strong for both parties. I picked things that I feel would favor that faction over the other one. For instance, a town bad santa can be game breaking, but that it isn't to say that a mafia one wouldn't be strong as well. Faking a "confirmed town list" could be deadly, but it's all negated if that bad santa dies. And I personally feel like the journalist can be pretty good for mafia, but absolutely useless for town. If anyone has any critique of this list or doesn't understand why I put them there, please tell me. | ||
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Ace Flamewheel Foolishness Dreamflower Incognito Also [9][1] The fact that 40% of the players picked either 4 or 9 is hillarious. Certainly should make things easier for us. | ||
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##Vote Kurumi | ||
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On May 16 2011 15:43 Ace wrote: Anyone else that didn't claim numbers should soon. I'm surprised no one has made a big deal about number clashing yet like in PYP 1. With so many unique numbers at the top and a bunch of clashes from 16 on down I think focusing our investigations into the clashing sets is a good start. We somewhat have an idea of what should be in the top slots so if any bad actions that were already discussed happen we know where to look. No. Mafia are unlikely to double pick numbers, so there is likely to be less than 2 mafia in the bottom 10 spots. We'd be better to have our investigative roles check out the top of the list. More number variety = more chances of finding red. | ||
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On May 17 2011 05:14 Foolishness wrote: And as someone already pointed out, the obscene amount of number collisions on the bottom half of the draft give way to the idea that most mafia are probably in the top half. Hmm, who was that someone? Oh wait, it was me! On May 17 2011 05:46 GMarshal wrote: KillerSOS So, I did a search of all his posts in order to find any posts that were relevant to analyze, looking for something juicy. There is exactly nothing, he has posted nothing but one liners. I'll pull out the ones that seem relevant, but theres *nothing* there. Here are some examples of his great contributions + Show Spoiler [great contributions!] + On May 14 2011 10:28 KillerSOS wrote: Well I'm going with two mid range numbers. Dare you to guess them. Completely irrelevant post, also not true he picked [5] IIRC, which is not really midrange, usless post On May 15 2011 17:03 KillerSOS wrote: I like how 13 was near the top. Interesting. Contribution = 0 On May 16 2011 16:15 KillerSOS wrote: I also believe that clashes in numbers won't be that useful this early in the game. I'm sure that the mafia are smart enough to grab some top slots, while at the same time randomizing the other half of their members. First game relevant post, and all it does is shoot down a decent idea, without actually contributing anything, bravo, so far my "lurker" radar is going nuts. On May 17 2011 03:10 KillerSOS wrote: I think it's fairly obvious that you are just spitting out nonsense. Would you like to explain yourself? People are accusing me, quickly demand an explanation of why they think that my 8 posts are all contentless one liners! KillerSOS is lurking, and I've made my stance on lurkers clear in the past, hang them all! ##Vote KillerSOS Get in here and contribute or hang by the neck till dead, I'd rather you did the former, but if you refuse I have no issue hanging you for it. There are way worse posters than KillerSOS. And suddenly you want to hang him? This is so random...oh wait... Flamewheel, seriously just nuke this duder. To all of you voting me, just think how I could possibly be mafia for a second. I come out and post about the vote rigger/list check combo, that apparently nobody else was even thinking about. There is absolutely no reason for me to do this as mafia. So what's the explanation for my weird play? I'm in Chicago for the weekend. Ver/Foolishness/Flamewheel all know this. I don't have the time I need to play a proper Day 1 (which unfortunately is one of the most crucial parts of the game), but I should be able to play seriously starting tomorrow after I finish my midterm. Bumatlarge is also on the right track. Chaoser is a good vote too. Actually, wait, a better vote than Kurumi. I'll put Chaoser as 85% mafia. ##Vote Chaoser We can only check one list at a time, and while checking a small list is much more helpful, I see no reason why the voterigger needs to get involved to create one. If he messes with the votes, then we lose most of the information we would have gotten from the voting that cycle. If the voterigger is mafia, the worst he can mess us up is if he places and equal amount of mafia on each list. What we don't want is overlapping lists. Vote rigger does this most effectively. I mean, for all I care vote rigger can wait till the last second to use his power and give us the entire 48 hours to debate. We should still be good even if he uses his power. Also we can check more than one list at a time. Night 1 inventor should give a vote checking kit to a trusted townie who isn't likely to die tonight (*hint* - pick me). That gives us 2 instant list checks by day 2. To all of you whining about how we should stop focusing on list checks and start scumhunting, I disagree. Partially. We should do both. Scumhunting obviously takes priority, but we shouldn't neglect vote list checks. Although the situation currently isn't ideal, it is by no means terrible. There's plenty of time left in the day and already things are beginning to pop up. List of invisible posters: GMarshal Kurumi Radfield tnkted Anyways, got a plane to catch now. | ||
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I also believe that the thief is not an active role in this game. Due to the way the numbers turned out, it is likely that the mafia got enough top spots that they don’t need to steal roles. Also now that I’ve read Radfield’s posts (yes, I ignored them before), he’s likely town. But he’s still useless and so should be ignored. I repeat, Inventor should hand out a vote checking kit. This is by far better than bulletproof vests, bulletproof kits, or gunpowder detectors. Deconduo's vote actually makes sense. Stop trying to kill him. It is clear that some people are trying to push a sort of policy lynch. Please stop knee-jerk reacting and think for a moment before trying to lop off my head. Contrary to popular belief, mafia really have no reason to point fingers everywhere. Unless one of their own candidates is leading the vote and they desperately need an alternative. Really its up to the town to figure out the first lynch, so mafia could care less if town doesn't have any leads. Mafia is unlikely to have picked copycat, as thief is far superior. So really there's no reason to save Scamp if you think he's red. Which, makes sense if you read his posts. | ||
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On May 17 2011 06:25 Kavdragon wrote: Upon further review, there is nothing of much significance with Mr.Wiggles. He doesn't make scum slips, he doesn't contradict himself as far as I see, but all of his contributions and posting are very "safe". He doesn't come out with any opinions that are unique, and seems to sheep behind a lot of people in an attempt to blend in. The one thing that sticks out about Mr Wiggles is that he doesn't want to stick out. It seems like he's doing his best to get by with minimal contribution, and that fits my pattern for scum. We now have a healthy pot of information to sift through. Guess I know what I'm going to do tomorrow. Everyone should go back and look at what's already been posted. | ||
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Everyone should be giving an opinion of me right now If you look at the thread, you'll notice that only a handful of people are popping up to accuse/defend me so far. Given how loud Ace et al are talking, I find it ridiculous that some people are popping in here without actually weighing in on this. We have people like GMarshal, who has said nothing of significance. Also Kavdragon, who has this strange fixation to defending himself without saying anything about me or pushing an alternative. Am I really that invisible? I hope not. Everyone who pretends I am invisible just wants to avoid being accountable for any sort of position. This is not something you can be unsure about. My posting this game has been so out of style that you MUST have something to say about it. The mafia want to avoid making an opinion. They want me dead, but they don't want to make it look obvious when they know I'll flip green. Some townies are naturally going to refrain from giving an opinion. After all, reading a few of my posts out there, I am pretty intimidating. But really, there's no reaso to be shy. Get out here and give your opinion. There is no reason to avoid this topic. Step 1: Identify town focus discussion - done. Its me. There are 2 discussion points that should be discussed from here on out. 1. There is now a referendum on Incognito. Everyone must weigh in. 2. Get the vote rigger to rig the votes if possible. If not, we need to do this ourselves. 1. It should be fairly obvious by now that I am town. Read over my posts again. The only real accusation against me is that I'm trying to cause chaos, therefore I'm mafia. But this post should put an end to that, because I'm basically calling a trial on myself and trying to consolidate the lynch. All this "lynch incognito because he is random voting" is bad reasoning. Mafia is a game about thinking. Choosing the easy way out by just policy lynching people who's play you don't like is sadly bad play in itself, even if Ace thinks he is awesome because of it. Also, sadly for us, policy lynching allows mafia to blend in with zealous pro-policy-lynch townies. 2. Here's why vote rigger should rig today's vote instead of just "spreading votes around a few candidates" to make checks. If we just "spread votes around", mafia have the luxury of being able to spread their votes out among the candidates and remain relatively safe from the vote checks. Secondly, the benefit of using the vote rigger is that we can separate the suspicious people from the innocents. Vote rigger doesn't randomly spread votes around. He places the more suspicious people on one list, while putting the strongest innocents on one list. If he did his job well, there is a strong possibility that the "innocents" list will show up with no mafia, thus giving us a big lead. Everyone stop freaking out about the vote rigger being anti-town. If the vote rigger is mafia obviously they're going to try to screw us up with it. Although it would be kinda difficult to do so. But if the vote rigger is town, what is there to fear? In any case, since we don't know if we have a vote rigger or not, we need to ensure that we get roughly good vote check lists in the event that we do not have a vote rigger, or he decides not to cooperate with us. So here are my proposed lines: Kavdragon - This list will consist of likely townies Caller Incognito Flamewheel Foolishness bumatlarge Radfield GMarshal Kurumi Ace tnkted infinitestory Dreamflower Deconduo KillerSOS Scamp - This list will consist of lurkers Chezinu Eiii OriginalName Fishball kitaman27 Chezinu - This list will consist of suspicious people Node Scamp GMarshal chaoser Barundar Kavdragon | ||
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Kavdragon - This list will consist of likely townies Caller Incognito Flamewheel Foolishness bumatlarge Radfield GMarshal Kurumi Ace tnkted infinitestory Dreamflower Deconduo KillerSOS Scamp - This list will consist of lurkers Chezinu Eiii OriginalName Fishball kitaman27 Mr. Wiggles Chezinu - This list will consist of suspicious people Node Scamp GMarshal chaoser Barundar Kavdragon Mafia 2 DT can check one list per day. Inventor can give out a vote list check kit. And still, 2 vote checks are better than nothing. Really we only need 3, as the 4th one we can infer by the results of the others. And as Ace said before, anyone who is a stray vote can just be individually checked. *Oops accidentally edited instead of quoted. Reverted to original state. | ||
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On May 18 2011 08:24 Radfield wrote: Another post to look at! Hoorah! Fortunately it even came in before my attack. Lets see if it follows the general trend. This whole post is directing other players to vote for incognito, yet not really taking a stance either way. I finished reading this post, and wasn't really sure if Barundar was actually even going to vote for Incog(he did). Ok there are problems with Incogs play(agreed), there are some positives and negatives to lynching him(agreed). These are just generally agreed upon points, sensible points, but nothing that needs to be re-pointed out. He 'doesn't buy' Incog's excuse, yet isn't directly pushing other players to vote for him. Simply putting points and notes out into the wind. Best of all, he finishes with a question that has an obvious answer, and doesn't need to be asked. No risks, just recapping whats happened, with the ever so slightest hint of an opinion. Again, nothing that isn't sensible, and nothing that I particularly disagree with, but with the looks of someone wanting to have some substance behind their vote(as opposed to someone having substance behind their vote). Excellent post. Maybe I should change GMarshal to Barundar for the vote list checks. | ||
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On May 18 2011 06:28 Kavdragon wrote: This is how I play town. Go look at XXXVIII. Look at XXXVI. Incorrect. Here's a post from XXXVIII. On April 11 2011 06:43 Kavdragon wrote: Screw it. I'm still 10 pages behind cause i had a sound gig I was running this morning, but this needs to get out there asap. (Sorry if it ignores stuff that has happened since page 31) Protactinium is Red. Dr.H is Red. First and foremost, don't let anyone fool you into thinking that the mayor is a unimportant role. It's EXTREMELY powerful, and VERY helpful to the town. This is a problem for the scum team, so they need a plan to bring it down quickly. So what do you do? First, you try to get a member into the office. It doesn't matter WHICH spot because they are both told the names of the bodyguards, and it doesn't matter HOW it's done, because the person put into that seat will be a sacrifice. Letting one of 8 members die is an excellent trade if you knock out the mayor, and secure the pardoner's role for it. As a bonus you can knock out most, if not all meaningful discussion the first day. Now how can this be done? Have one member claim assassin, have another intimidating member bully and be extremely negative of everyone else running for mayor. My case for Protactinium v1.0 Protactinium has done only one thing so far, and that is announce and defend his Assassin claim Gambit. An interesting, and somewhat appealing plan at first glance, but upon deeper inspection doesn't make sense. I know that Protact is a VERY skilled scum player. He's a good player all around. This gambit of his is a huge risk, because he doesn't know if town will let him in. If he played it quietly, he'd have a better chance than most. He says he came up with a new way to try to survive: become pardoner. It makes sense for a little bit, because that spot is protected. But there's a problem: As he has said multiple times, he wants to use this to get into the endgame, where he can throw his last hammer and then be done. It would work if the mayor lived that long, but to quote foolishness, "Mayors have a pretty high mortality rate". He wants to hid behind bodyguards, but look how fast they fell in insane! Over all, there is SOME validity to the strategy, but not NEARLY enough for someone of Protact's skill level to try it. It's not his level of play. It doesn't make sense. On the other hand, what if he's Red? It'll become apparent enough pretty quickly, and he'll die. So that makes no sense, right? WRONG. There are 8 players on the scum team, and the mayor is a very powerful role. You can cause TONS of havoc from this position, and if you play it right, you might even be able to survive for a few days and stop a lynch. It doesn't even matter if the lynch was going to kill a townie or mafia, because when you flip, people will see that mafia stopped a lynch, and that person is sure to be lynched again. This saves them a whole day either way. This is EXACTLY the level of play I would expect out of an excellent scum player. Before you say that Mafia wouldn't sacrifice one of their better players, it's was done before when Protact and BloodyC0bler were playing in XXVIII. Protactinium is SCUM He is my currently on my "to-be-lynched" list, and even if you don't agree with my conclusion that he is definitely scum, you cannot deny that there is a strong possibility, and because of this, he should not be voted into office. No question. My Case for Dr.Helvetica v1.0 I've only played with Dr.H once before, and that was in Salem. It was my first game, and I was subbed in. he played EXTREMELY differently in that game. He was positive, helpful, and gave good insight and ideas freely. This game he has been extremely negative of almost anything suggested. He has used his considerable prowess at being intimidating to bully players, and stomp on very pro-town ideas. On top of that, he has been posting TONS and been pretty spammy about it too. There's a lot of new players, so what better way to scare them off than to drown them with hundreds of posts? Stomping on my attempts to help newer players. Stomping on Gmarshal's attempt at running for mayor. Stomping on Tnkted's EXTREMELY PRO TOWN IDEA. All of this is EXTREMELY ANTI-TOWN no matter how you look at it. Everything he is doing is clearly designed to snuff out new people so that we have tons of inactive players. Doc H is a good mafia player, and there's no way that this is not being done on purpose. Doc H is mafia, and he's doing a damn good job of both spamming the thread to pieces, shutting down pro-town ideas, and intimidating new players. These are just a few examples of how he is destroying a pro-town environment in the thread. I think that everyone has seen this for themselves though. He has almost 100 posts and it's not even half way through day 1! He has contradicted himself multiple times with his mayoral campaign (I'm not going to run --> Mayor is unimportant, and i wish it weren't here --> I can't trust ya'll, I'm going to run). The reason why he singled me out so early was because I am dedicated to doing exactly the oposite of what he is trying to do. I will not get sucked into an argument with him that will spam the thread. I will not stop posting good advice for newer players. I know it looks scummy. I don't care. It will help newer people, and that's worth it. If I can mobilize the the masses before i die, i die a happy death. I refuse to stand by while he destroies the learning environment I am trying to build up. DoctorHelvetica is SCUM This comes early Day 1. Notice how bold and confident it is. Was he wrong? Yes. Honestly, his case is made off of very little information and many assumptions. But that didn't stop him. After his first accusation post he keeps pushing. Even after this, he keeps mentioning his thoughts. All throughout the day he points out scum. Not "gathering information", but real accusations. He accuses at least 5 people throughout day 1. Even when DH says he will consider lynching him, Kav remains aggressive, maintains his focus on DH, and dares DH to lynch him. That is aggressive, risky play. Now look at this game. Kavdragon suddenly retracts into his hole, is "afraid" of good players, and needs to poke for information. He doesn't follow a coherent train of thought, and his defense isn't anywhere near convincing either. He doesn't strongly accuse anyone of anything, and his defense shows that he cares a lot. Overall, strong case for red. ##Vote Kavdragon | ||
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On May 18 2011 08:59 Fishball wrote: Me lurking? Never! All oldies knows I rarely point fingers at anyone, no matter what alignment I am, until I have something solid. Standard Fishball IMO, especially this early into the game. For shits and giggles, I talked to BC on MSN and gave him my incomplete-preliminary Mafia list. I'll be sure to brag after the game if I get anything right, *cough*. Time for The Witcher 2! Sorry, I was mistaken. You are the pinnacle of pro-town play. Just vote Scamp, k? | ||
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Kavdragon - This list will consist of likely townies Caller Incognito Flamewheel Foolishness bumatlarge Radfield Ace Barundar Kurumi tnkted infinitestory Dreamflower Deconduo KillerSOS Scamp - This list will consist of lurkers Chezinu Eiii OriginalName Fishball kitaman27 Mr. Wiggles Chezinu - This list will consist of suspicious people Node Scamp GMarshal chaoser Barundar Kavdragon | ||
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In Pokemafia, Kavdragon comes up with a long LSB accusation. Nice and all, except that he doesn't follow up. A few posts later, almost nothing is mentioned about LSB, and he goes off to vote some other random person. Compare to this game, where Kavdragon makes an accusation on Node, and then lets it get buried in the thread. Now I'm 100% certain Kavdragon will be lynched, so here's my suggestion. Keep the votes close among the 4 candidates, with Kavdragon in the lead. If any "save Kavdragon" agenda appears to be occuring, everyone has my full blessing to ignore the assigned vote lists and ensure that Kavdragon is lynched. | ||
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On May 18 2011 09:32 Radfield wrote: I disagree with the Kavdragon lynch. I'll admit that I've been skim reading some of his later posts, but after a quick look through, I still don't get the scum vibe. I agree with some of your points Incog, but on the whole disagree with the conclusion. Mind you, I haven't read through his other games, so your opinion is a bit more learned than mine. Anyways, Kav has had some bold, unafraid posts in this game. He has been disagreeing with people with reckless abandon, and for at least the first half of the game, seemed very confident. Again, can't compare with his other games, but i'm really picking up the opposite vibe. Another possible reason to vote Barundar over Kavdragon, is that if he's mafia Barundar very likely took CPR Doc. He was 'assigned' this role, so would not look suspicious if he took it, and it's very difficult to discover if he uses it or not. Please point out some of these "bold, unafraid posts". Disagreeing with people is normal, especially in a game such as this one where the lynch is fragmented. It also depends on what he is disagreeing on. I'm not sure I see these posts you are referring to though. Before you make a final call, I suggest you look back at some of his previous games, namely XXXVIII and XXXIV. They're totally different styles and it shows. And the point about Barundar likely being CPR doc is moot. There are plenty of good mafia roles. If we lynch one, we're likely to knock out something good. | ||
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On May 18 2011 09:36 Scamp wrote: Well, if Incognito is town he sure knows how to save his ass with long posts and fresh plans. I don't like how his plan revolves around roles being selected that we don't know are actually in the game (both vote rigger and list-checking DTs/inventors) and his plan is basically dividing up the town in a way that no one is expecting to work. But if we do go along with it he did narrow the suspects down to four. Kind of curious how I made the short list over Chaoser, though.. If you survive the lynch, will you promise me to give me the vote list check kit if you are the inventor? I won't tell anyone that you are truly the inventor. Promise. | ||
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On May 18 2011 09:52 Scamp wrote: If you want my cooperation in any way it's probably best if you A: don't target me as a lynch target and B: answer my questions (or statements that are question-like). Odd, though. I don't really feel like this threat of being lynched is serious. Its not, I don't expect you to be lynched. I expect Kavdragon to be lynched. You are just for list check purposes. On May 18 2011 09:54 Radfield wrote: Funny enough I had some posts(the node fos and another one) that I was going to use as examples at the end of my post. Upon rereading I decided not to include them, as I felt they didn't really quite satisfy the requirement. Perhaps this is a sign you're right. Anyways, my hesitancy to lynch Kavdragon stems from 2 places: 1) In any other game I've played in, players who have posted like Kavdragon this game always flip Town. Nothing I've seen this game from Kav has triggered alarm bells for me, and to tell the truth has actually done the opposite(it doesn't feel like he's trying to be town). I realize you're basing your lynch push not necessarily off posts this game, but rather comparisons to other games. In this I'll have to trust you. If Kav lives another day, I promise I'll look through those games, but I don't have the pizazz to do it right now(i'm tired and ready for bed). 2) I can't shake the feeling that you are redirecting people away from my Barundar vote. I've been fooled by you before, and as such you have only yourself to blame. With that in mind, I feel it's best to go with my strong suspicion of Barundar(a suspicion you share). Are you willing to leave off on Kavdragon for Day 1(let ace shoot him if you want ) to lend me a vote on Barundar? After all, it's what you're asking of me. The aforementioned quotes: + Show Spoiler + On May 14 2011 13:28 Kavdragon wrote: I picked [1.5][0.5]. Am i doing it right? ...or we can get down to business: Node. Cool story. What role did you get? Node's ideas are wrong, and wrong in a way that benefits mafia. Mafia wants to get the powerful roles, and the will try to get them. Anything beyond this is WIFOM. We can build a list of roles that the mafia will likely try to obtain, and have town go after those roles. If a townie and a mafia try to get the same role, town wins: The ratio of mafia to townies is 1/4, so if we send one townie to block a role that the mafia want, we only allocate 1/4 of the manpower that the mafia has to in order to try for the role, and they have no better chance of getting that power than the townie does. This is very similar to the reason that 1-1 trades work well. I'm not saying that we should not go for pro-town roles, but that we need to also go for anti town roles. We have a manpower advantage over the mafia, and we should utilize it. Compound this with the fact that node states his opinions very tentatively, and you've got yourself an FOS: node. On May 16 2011 08:25 Kavdragon wrote: So... I meant to post this a while ago, but ended up without a internet connection till now. As I see it there are two general ways that each side can go: You can deny the other team's power roles, or you can gain your team's power roles. Statistically it's a horrible idea for the mafia to try to deny us, rather than gain power roles. (Because of the limited number of players on their team) Even though the mafia has the advantage of being able to communicate and organize, I think that the town still has a huge advantage at this stage because of sheer manpower. We have three times the number of players, and I think that using that advantage is going to be key in getting the upper hand in this drafting phase. What I mean is this: We have enough players to both block the mafia from getting their most powerful roles, AND still pick up our most powerful roles. The only thing that we need to figure out is what order we need to take those roles. As mentioned earlier, the mafia can't afford to get any roles that are powerful for the town, unless they are also powerful for the mafia. Because of this, I think that any powers that are weak for the mafia should NOT be chosen early even if they are very powerful for the town. The top picks should be roles that are powerful for both sides, followed by roles that are very powerful in mafia hands (but not so much in town hands), followed by roles that are powerful for town (but not so much for mafia). People have said that we should just not pick mafia roles, and lynch anyone found with them. I disagree strongly, as it is that sort of passive play that will allow the mafia to get exactly what they need, and rofl stomp us. Those role will very likely be taken regardless, so I'd rather do something like Radfield is suggesting, and assign them to people, so that we know where those roles are. Sorry if it covers some things that have already been talked about. Radfield: Even if Flamewheel isn't willing to take thief, it would still work if we just shifted everything down a position, right? You must tell the difference between "people who post like Kavdragon in other games" and "Kavdragon's posting in other games". The differences in aggression/focus are very telling in both games. How have I fooled you before? And the reason why I'm trying to lynch Kavdragon over Barundar is that Kavdragon is more suspicious. Barundar was risky enough to attack Caller for spreading out the votes, which from a mafia point of view isn't the best thing to do. I'm ok with investigative roles checking Barundar though. Don't be fooled by the Node accusation post. Here is a post from Kavdragon when he's mafia. The key difference here is not that Kavdragon makes a bold accusation, its that he makes a bold accusation but doesn't follow through with this in subsequent posts. The second post is just a terrible suggestion. He suggests that people prioritize roles that benefit the mafia over roles that benefit the town. I don't see how this makes him town at all. On May 18 2011 10:18 Ace wrote: Also these "likely town" lists are also hilarious. Fake effort all around. Managing "vote lists" by Incognito's whim. Scamp and chaoser accused of lurking, when there are blatant fishy posts in front of our eyes. Incognito, Radfield. Flip a coin. I never accused Scamp/chaoser of lurking. If you look back at my list they're both under the "List of suspicious people", so we both agree there. Chezinu - This list will consist of suspicious people Node Scamp GMarshal chaoser Barundar Kavdragon We seem to be in agreement on a lot of things (except for the "lynch finger pointers" thing). So please stop opposing me and maybe we can not rip each other to shreds for a change? | ||
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On May 18 2011 11:00 kitaman27 wrote: Sigh this is a mess how spread out the votes are. If nobody wants to lynch deconduo today, I hope someone shoots or checks him tonight. Switching to Barundar. Why are you voting Barundar? On May 18 2011 11:12 GMarshal wrote: I laugh at how I'm "obviously mafia", tunneling much incog? Please point out my scum motivated posts and then maybe I'll take you somewhat seriously. Although its not likely. Is anyone else getting bad vibes from this lynch? I feel like neither Barundar nor Kav are scum, as Barundar called a lot of attention himself with the whole "focus your vote" thing, which was something that needed to be said, I don't understand the wagon on him at all. Kav has been trying so hard its not even funny, and I just don't see the reasoning behind lynching him as solid, as a matter of fact they seem to me to be a bunch of meta considerations that are best ignored, while meta is fine for solidifying a case, its a terrible thing to base lynches on, every game is different, and peoples play styles change. I'm still not sure of who to vote for, I don't like any of the current lynch candidates, theres still some time before the deadline, so I'll think on it. So what you're trying to say is: you're ignoring my analysis because you don't like the way I'm playing. Oh wait a second, thats what you did last game! And you turned out to be mafia. Please don't disappoint me. I've posted analyses on Kavdragon here and here. | ||
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On May 18 2011 11:40 Kavdragon wrote: @incog + Show Spoiler + On May 18 2011 08:32 Incognito wrote: Also Kavdragon, who has this strange fixation to defending himself without saying anything about me or pushing an alternative. Um, firstly, I HAVE talked about you. I've been defending my style of play, something very similar to yours early on. I've mentioned you in many of the examples I pointed out to ace where he was putting down early "bs" pressure. I'm not pushing you as an alternative because, as I have already said several times, I don't like lynching good players day 1. Day 1 reads are hard, and I've never been in favor of risking them on valuable players. You are a valuable player AND I supported what you were doing, so why would I suggest you as an alternative? On May 18 2011 08:59 Incognito wrote: Incorrect. Here's a post from XXXVIII. This comes early Day 1. Notice how bold and confident it is. Was he wrong? Yes. Honestly, his case is made off of very little information and many assumptions. But that didn't stop him. After his first accusation post he keeps pushing. Even after this, he keeps mentioning his thoughts. All throughout the day he points out scum. Not "gathering information", but real accusations. He accuses at least 5 people throughout day 1. Even when DH says he will consider lynching him, Kav remains aggressive, maintains his focus on DH, and dares DH to lynch him. That is aggressive, risky play. Now look at this game. Kavdragon suddenly retracts into his hole, is "afraid" of good players, and needs to poke for information. He doesn't follow a coherent train of thought, and his defense isn't anywhere near convincing either. He doesn't strongly accuse anyone of anything, and his defense shows that he cares a lot. Overall, strong case for red. ##Vote Kavdragon The reason why I kept pushing was because the Dr.H thing was NOT a pressure play. I honestly thought that he was mafia, and I was making a serious attempt to lynch him. And regarding Dr.H saying he'll lynch me? How is that any different than Ace saying he'll shoot me? I continued to argue with him long after he threatened that. I've never said I was afraid of good players. If that were that were the case, why would I have picked a fight with Ace, and why would I be responding to you? On May 18 2011 09:29 Incognito wrote: For the sake of completeness, lets compare Kavdragon's play in XXXVIII and this game to XXXIV (Pokemafia). In Pokemafia, Kavdragon comes up with a long LSB accusation. Nice and all, except that he doesn't follow up. A few posts later, almost nothing is mentioned about LSB, and he goes off to vote some other random person. Compare to this game, where Kavdragon makes an accusation on Node, and then lets it get buried in the thread. Now I'm 100% certain Kavdragon will be lynched, so here's my suggestion. Keep the votes close among the 4 candidates, with Kavdragon in the lead. If any "save Kavdragon" agenda appears to be occuring, everyone has my full blessing to ignore the assigned vote lists and ensure that Kavdragon is lynched. You fail to mention that I brought the case against LSB well after day one. I've never been aggressive as scum day one. Are you looking through mafia goggles? Honestly, lynching anyone who is vocal day one is a bad idea. I've said this in previous games, when I was town. Why all of a sudden then you are so convinced about DH/Protactinium in that game and in this game you are so confused? There are plenty of things to talk about. There is no lack of information in this game. Yet you seem to act like there is. The way you argued with DH after he said he was going to lynch you is TOTALLY in a different character than the way you are arguing now. In the last game, you laughed it off and dared DH to actually lynch you. You had nothing to lose, and you made a risky play. In this game, you are attempting to defend yourself in a safe way and don't take risks. Thats because in this game, you are actually afraid of dying. You're afraid of good players. You're afraid that we will actually get you lynched, so you're not taking your chances. Your statement about LSB is incorrect.. As mafia in Pokemafia you attacked LSB on page 18, when day 1 ended on page 23. So that statement is obviously false. Also, Ace and I apparently aren't afraid to lynch vocal people day 1. If you're mafia, you go down. Period. | ||
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On May 18 2011 11:57 GMarshal wrote: I'm ignoring your analysis of Kav, because as I said its all based on meta considerations. While those are nice to supplement already solid analysis they are a bad thing to base your cases exclusively on, as peoples attitude and style can change from game to game. As I read it your analysis boils down to "he played more aggressive last game, he isn't as aggressive this game". The only thing that might sell me on that lynch is the fact that he isn't pressing any of his accusations, he fingerpoints and then doesn't push for that targets lynch, which, *independent* of meta consideration is a trait of mafia who look to be contributing without contributing. Especially considering all the time he had to "gather information", however I don't think that that alone is damning enough to push for his lynch (and before people say that that's what I did with df and killerSOS, I left killer to the vigis, and am not going to push df and thus derail what seems to be a decent selection of lynch targets). I'm not ignoring your arguments, just saying that in my mind they don't seem to be that solid, come back with posts that show pushing for mafia objectives or a non-town mindset behind them and I'll get behind the kavdragon lynch, but you are going to need something more solid than "he is playing different" to sway me. Ace plays different every game, do we lynch him for that? My analysis is an extension of Caller's analysis. It is not all based on meta considerations. Mafia want to make it look like they're contributing without actually contributing. They want to look like they're being aggressive townies without having to be accountable for their actions. They want to push lynches without being fingered for starting the bandwagon. They want to appear to be leading lynches even though the lynches don't get anywhere. Kavdragon has done exactly that. He appears to be pro-town in attacking Node, even though he doesn't follow up on it and pretty much ignores it thereafter. Kavdragon is trying to hide the fact that he doesn't want to be responsible for any lynch. This is clearly what mafia want to do. The comparison to the XXXVIII and XXXIV games just solidify this line of reasoning. Kavdragon's behavior in past games lines up exactly with what we would expect a mafia to do. Please don't take the fact that I accused you earlier personally. Kavdragon is now my target. If you can look at this objectively I think you'll come to the same conclusion as I did too. | ||
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On May 18 2011 12:03 Ace wrote: That is a great point. Why so timid KD? I think we have to avoid lynching Barundar right now for sure though. Don't like those votes on him at all. For the most part I agree. Dreamflower and KillerSOS were on my Barundar list, but other than that, the other 3 should be voting someone else. Kavdragon is a wayy better target than Barundar. | ||
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On May 18 2011 12:03 Ace wrote: ##vote Radfield So much for being anti-finger pointing, huh? :D | ||
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On May 18 2011 12:28 Barundar wrote: Well that was silly. Please don't screw the vote list up with vote rigging. To the townies voting for me (I'm looking at you bum), I hope you shape up after this! My reads for day 0+1 was: Mafia: Incognito (obv) one of dreamflower/kitaman - lurk all day-->weak reason to vote me KillerSOS - clearly watching thread without writing, dooms me without even posting. OriginalName - surfing modkill tresshold, reading thread but placeholder vote. I didn't find Radfield to be mafia, traitor at worst. Take my reads with a grain of salt, its day 1 after all. In general I don't think mafia was very active day 1. Town did the work for them by throwing around mass accusations. The town had a serious case of everyone thinking they where smarter than everyone else. Sometimes playing town is not about accusations, but about picking the right persons to listen to. All mafia had to do was lay low. GL everyone~ You seem to sleep for a rather short time. | ||
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So mafia wasn't active day 1, yet I'm mafia? Would you say I was inactive? I'd say that I am the most visible player in the thread, but of course I could be wrong. | ||
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And from your previous observation that mafia was content having 10 lynch targets, I'd say that if I was mafia, I'd be content to sit out on the sidelines and watch someone else get lynched, no? | ||
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On May 18 2011 12:54 Barundar wrote: You keep talking about your playstyle and whether people like it :/. I didn't vote you for your playstyle, I voted you for your lack of reasons. You have only started doing analysis and reasons after you got a head in vote. You seemed quite content until you actually got a head... Actually if I was mafia, I'd have up to 6 teammates to help defend me. I probably would've never been ahead. I wouldn't need to pop up randomly and defend myself. Unless of course you want to call all my supporters mafia. I'd just take a step back and analyze the whole situation for a moment. If I am mafia, I'm the craziest most terrible mafia ever. | ||
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On May 18 2011 12:56 Eiii wrote: I'm absolutely not comfortable lynching kav today. I'm having a hard time convincing myself to even switch my vote to one of the two lynchees at the moment. Care to elaborate? | ||
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On May 18 2011 14:26 Ace wrote: If there is anyone that shouldn't be getting an investigation kit, it's you. You are on the Kavdragon lynch list. And you are on the Incognito list. Who do you suggest we actually give this kit to? | ||
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On May 18 2011 14:28 Ace wrote: Anyone not on the Barundar or Kavdragon voting lists. Anyone is not a good answer. Name someone specific please. | ||
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On May 18 2011 14:32 KillerSOS wrote: What's wrong with being on the Incognito list? I don't see how Kav flipping town proves you're a townie. Because from my point of view, I know I'm a townie. Anyone else is either a) likely to die, or b) not certain townie. The conditions for receiving a list check kit is it must be a townie, and they must not die, otherwise it fails. | ||
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chaoser Fishball Chezinu kitaman27 Dreamflower Foolishness Caller Scamp Flamewheel Ace It doesn't matter whether it is role or alignment. We need some information on these people. Vig Hits: KillerSOS He either makes irrelevant posts, shoots down people's ideas, or spreads doubt. Gloats after the lynch, but does nothing to stop it. Medic list. It should read: Radfield GMarshal Besides myself, nobody is really taking the spotlight. This is pretty disappointing. It probably means the mafia is content with the way things are going right now. The people posting night action lists are looking pretty good right now. | ||
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On May 18 2011 19:19 Radfield wrote: + Show Spoiler + Incog, you fooled me the first game I ever played. I was sure you were pro-town, but instead you dominated town, took control, and lead mafia to victory with about 5 members left over. Something flamewheel hosted... XXI maybe? + Show Spoiler + In that game you died day 1. Don't think there was too much fooling going on there. Either way if you look at that game I'm playing wayyy differently. Ace and Foolishness don't deserve medic protection. Whoever is the Bullet Bill should check Eiii or Chaoser. Also reading over Radfield and Barundar's posts, I agree with the thesis that neither of the lynch candidates are mafia, and that the mafia probably wasn't heavily concerned about the lynch. This makes vote list checks that much more useless. I propose that Scamp give a gunpowder sniffing kit (that works like Bullet Bill) to someone instead of a vote list check kit. Individual checks are probably better right now than blanket checks. Besides, Mafia XII GF is the only mafia GF that can evade a BB check. Making bulletproof vests is useless. Its not like the inventor will even be able to guess who to give it to correctly. On May 19 2011 01:39 Ace wrote: No, it's very valid. There has not been one credible argument against Barundar. Ever. Just because KavCaprio flipped Town doesn't mean Barundar is Scum. The Barundar train was terrible, just stop trying to pass it off. As for the bolded don't try and say "this is what you were saying". It wasn't. If I wanted to say it or imply it - I would have said it. Barundar and KavCaprio could both be innocent. Then what? Why would the mafia have to be "persuaded" to do anything? It's two innocents. As long as no mafia die there isn't any WIFOM there. It makes excellent sense. You and Incognito are the top 2 suspects. One for the KavCaprio lynch, the other for the Barundar train. This "Barundar was an alternative lynch" spiel is utter garbage. Show me just ONE credible case against him. This is townie Ace who's too proud to do real analysis, or this is mafia Ace. The problem with Ace this game is that while he has been active in the thread and pushed an agenda, he hasn't taken the spotlight. He's piled everything up on me, and is content to sit back and yell the Incognito is scummy mantra. Ace isn't scumhunting. He's trying to lynch obvious townies who are just a bit out there. Ace is acting irrationally while trying to appear rational. He has a gun, so nobody's going to want to argue with him. Right? kitaman, please tell me why deconduo is confirmed anti-town | ||
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On May 19 2011 09:59 Ace wrote: Who's acting irrational? You were on the wagon of a confirmed innocent and flip flopped on Day 1. Stop it. Townies are wrong all the time. But who am I kidding, I don't need to convince you of anything. | ||
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On May 19 2011 12:05 Foolishness wrote: At the end of the day yesterday, I just thought Incognito had a bad case of Pyrrhuloxitis and wasn't really mafia, since to me some of his arguments against Kav were lol. So I didn't change my vote off of him until the end, but I lost track of time because I was watching proleague. Shit happens. Now I'm not sure what to think anymore. At the very least, Incog's attitude does not help the town in the current situation so I will still be voting him unless new information surfaces. And frankly, I doubt anything new will come up. If the vote checker checks some list (as planned) would you have them claim the results even if they aren't damning? We all know mafia spread out votes as much as possible, so they will probably get a 1/5 people are mafia in one of the lists. Well big freaking deal since we got a 1/5 chance of randomly killing a mafia with a lynch anyways. I fail to see how vote checking is going to get us anywhere tomorrow. This game has lots of good players, mafia aren't going to be stupid and lose because of a vote check. If nobody else is going to try to do some normal, mafia analysis, we might as well just throw in the towel now. These vote checks which are going to return 1/5 are mafia aren't going to help anything until day 4 when we get a bunch more vote checks to properly nab the mafia. Game will probably be close to over by then. So what you're trying to say, is that you will be voting me, even though mafia were uninvolved in the lynch and probably spread out their votes, which wouldn't happen unless I'm town. Congratz. I, on the other hand, think we will find out some good information tonight. I also like how you haven't given any analysis. Congratz again. When will people stop being afraid of looking stupid and actually do something? | ||
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On May 19 2011 12:21 Foolishness wrote: And you've got loads of analysis Mr "let's wait for blues to win us the game"? Yes I do, but if nobody cares about this game, I won't bother. See, I can play this game too! | ||
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Feel free to lynch me. But I seriously doubt you'll be able to, once I do the exact opposite of what the mafia would want to do. ##Nuke Chezinu Everyone should agree that getting rid of Chezinu is a pro-town move. Especially now that there is a vote check on the Kavdragon lynch. Now seriously, what mafia would shoot into a vote list that has 2/6 red on it? Unless of course I am conspiring with GMarshal to screw over the town, this doesn't make any sense. But then again, conspiring with GMarshal doesn't make too much sense either if I'm announcing that option. Furthermore, it makes no sense for mafia to take America. Especially after Radfield proclaimed it an anti-town role. But if you think about it, its the most transparent role in the game. There's no way for me to hide from a misuse of the role, and its not like I can use it to kill blatant townspeople without significant backlash. Frankly put, America is a ridiculous option for mafia. There are way better KP roles for them to use. So feel free to pile your votes on me now. Nobody else type the nuke command. When Ver confirms that a nuke has been launched, you can all take your votes off me, ok? I'll be back later with some more thoughts. + Show Spoiler + Funny thing I saw a couple days ago in the news: "IMF chief's arrest stirs up anti-Americanism in France" Seems fitting, huh Radfield? | ||
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On May 20 2011 03:02 Ace wrote: :/ Why are you always trying to force us with this "this role is a ridiculous option for Mafia" talk? I thought you and Radfield agreed that this was another role on the no-pick list? See. This is what I don't get about you two. Both of you are going against your Day 1 plans. What gives Incognito? With Radfield I have an idea about his..."pick" and it has nothing to do with whats going on this game. But now you're nuking when I could have sworn "nukes are bad" was a Scum move. So now if Chezinu flips town we waste a day on you, and if he flips Scum you just bussed a teammate and started a which hunt on 4 other innocents. You didn't even discuss anything, or even claim before nuking (if your even America). How is that pro-town? Uh...I never agreed with Radfield's plan. "Invisible posters" remember? | ||
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On May 20 2011 03:13 Node wrote: Out of the five people on the Kav voting list, I'm most willing to believe that Chezinu is scum. But now I'm completely unsure about Incognito. I didn't think scum would be willing to risk choosing America, but at the same time I feel that it's extremely anti-town to force three kills in one day, especially when Chezinu might have died by Wiggles' hand, without discussing it at all in public. And if Chezinu is scum, then we've got the mother of all WIFOMs on our hands as we wonder whether or not Incog bussed him -- and because we know (provided GMarshal's not in on this) there's another scum on that list, we'll lynch blindly and waste who knows how many days. I can't take this move as being good for the town. Therefore, Incognito just got a lot more scummy to me. Everyone uses this term "WIFOM" as if its impossible to figure anything out. In case you haven't noticed, the entire game of mafia is WIFOM. All behavior analysis boils down to "X is mafia because of Y". But if X knew that Y was suspicious, he wouldn't have done that. You can never be certain. There is no clear cut logic. But the fact is that we still play this game, and people get analysis right. Even though everything is technically WIFOM, not all options are equal. Mafia could lurk, they could be active, they can act risky, they could play it safe. They could even say "hi im mafia" and proceed to clearly attack pro-town players, on the basis that mafia would never be so blatant. Not all those options are equally good. Obviously some (playing safe, contributing without contributing, blending in, etc.) are better than others. Just think about it for a second. Its pretty obvious that even if Chezinu flips mafia, people will still be skeptical. Like has been said many times, bussing isn't really that effective for mafia. If Chezinu was mafia, why would I bus him? I just lost 1/6 of my team, with no guarantee that I will be saved. If Chezinu flips town, then it doesn't make sense for me to be mafia because I just eliminated a scummy player and narrowed down the vote list from 2/6 to 2/5. If Looking at the thread condition right now, if I was mafia, I'd be best to shoot the people who are trying to get stuff done. Dreamflower, Ace, Flamewheel are all much better nuke targets. I could probably easily justify those nukes too. But I didn't. I shot someone I think is mafia, and I am narrowing down the vote list if I'm wrong. The simplest explanation is often the best. You can go loopy doubting yourself in WIFOMland if you'd like, but that really isn't a productive use of brainpower. | ||
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On May 20 2011 03:11 Ace wrote: Well, thats that then. So why did you nuke Chezinu with no discussion from anyone else? That's a bit hasty isn't it? Yes, the person who wants to ignore all my contributions and finger me out as mafia based on a Incog is fingerpointing mantra now wants to discuss. Chezinu is useless. He's on the list. He was one of my suspects. You're obviously wrong on my alignment, so I don't see why I should trust your judgment either. Don't worry, it wasn't a hasty decision. I read through the other posts. I see what information people are throwing out and am acting accordingly. You're probably just mad that you can't influence every decision everyone makes. On May 20 2011 03:11 Kurumi wrote: You listed me as invisible poster twice while I posted a bit,Your list was ALWAYS inaccurate. You're pretty invinsible so that's accurate. What I wasn't accurate on was that you're mafia, but at this point it doesn't matter. | ||
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On May 20 2011 03:43 Ace wrote: Thing is I dont think you read a lot of posts except for the one post calling Chezinu out by dreamflower. You just so happened to nuke him without any discussion. For someone who's been calling himself the pro-town savior all game long that is VERY out of character. There is no basis for that statement. Unless of course you are looking over my shoulder, which I highly doubt. I already told you you can vote me until Ver announces that a nuke has gone off. While you wait for the fireworks to go off, you can either be productive, or just sit there and chill, for all I care. Just stop blaring the anti-Incog horn. Its getting old. | ||
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On May 20 2011 15:18 Fishball wrote: Just some follow up. If what GMarshal says is true, and his list is not influenced by any other factors (Framer/Godfathers etc,), and also assuming he, himself, is not one of the Mafia on the list, we have two Mafia among the following five. - Caller - Incognito - Chezinu - Node - flamewheel If we do go with the route with maximum day kills, and the worst case scenario happens, as in both Chezinu/Incognito flipped Town, that leaves us with. - Caller - Node - flamewheel Now lets also assume that we used our Town lynch on a target outside of the check list (will elaborate later in this post), we will be on Night 2, and we have two Mafia among a list of three. At this point, we should have people use their investigative powers on the players remaining on the list instead of flat out killing them, based on the fact that we already missed twice from a list of five, and I'd rather not take anymore chances from the possibility that the list might be bad. If we don't find anything, we'll know this is a setup. Everything mentioned above only applies if neither Chezinu or Incognito flips red. Although I haven't cast my vote yet, from what I see in the voting thread right now, unless something dramatically comes up, the general consensus is that Incognito will be lynched. If this is the case, I rather have Mr. Wiggles use the King's lynch on Incognito right now. If he flips red, great; If he flips green, at least that will still give us 20 somewhat hours to discuss who we should be lynching next. Now back to why I think we should be using our Town lynch on someone else outside of the list. If Incognito flips red, it wouldn't be the best course of action to use another kill on the list, since Chezinu's death is inevitable and have yet to flip. I'd rather have us start exploring elsewhere. If Incognito flips green, the same logic applies, along with the situation we will be in mentioned up top; Chezinu has yet to flip, and we don't want to dig too deep base on the off-chance that the list might be bad, whether it's fake or is a setup by other factors. I also prefer Mr. Wiggles to use the King's lynch sooner than later, no matter who we decide to lynch. The sooner we're able to test the waters whether if a Politician exist in the game or not, the better. Yes, the Politician could choose to not use his power if he deems it is unnecessary or wants to lay low, but it's a still good indicator for Town, and it at least gives us a bit more time to prepare and discuss until the end of Day if a Politician do exist and used his power. So in short, if the general consensus is to lynch Incognito, Mr. Wiggles should be the one pulling the trigger. It's either having the results now or results later, and it can only benefit us if we act now. Instead of discussing "if I flip red" or "if I flip green", can you at least TRY to analyze what I am? I mean, its not that difficult. If Chezinu is town he should claim his numbers and role. I propose the following. Mr. Wiggles dayvigs me. When I flip town, you lynch Ace. I messed up my day 1 strategy, and it has blown up into this big mess. And while I think Ace is town, he is totally off the right track. While I understand how you think my crazy actions and reckless day 1 play is anti-town, Ace's play is equally as bad. And his ego and thread influence are big enough to drive this town into the ground even if he isn't mafia. Its obvious Ace isn't playing in the best interests of town and is instead blowing up the thread to feed his ego and perpetuate his godlike identity. Hopefully once we're both dead and the dust clears, the atmosphere can be calm enough again that some others such as Foolishness/Flamewheel/Radfield can step it up and actually lead us somewhere. I will be mostly gone tomorrow for a recording session so aside from perhaps a small comment here or there, I won't be saying much from here on out. Final thoughts: Based on yesterday's lynch, it seems really strange that the mafia would stack 2 on Kavdragon, especially since they knew he would flip green, and that it would be the most likely list to be vote checked, given that town now knows that Kavdragon is innocent, and that I am heavily suspected and am also on that list. Upon further reflection, I feel like the vote list has been tampered with (likely), or that GMarshal fabricated it to lead us on a witch hunt (unlikely). Regardless, it shouldn't be accepted as the word of god. Out of the people on the list, the only person I really had suspicions about was Chezinu. Node seems plenty town to me, because his early contributions in the role picking phase were more than just "I don't like GMarshal's plan". While he hasn't been particularly insightful, Node doesn't seem like he's planning his actions. He seems to be reacting to information naturally and spontaneously as it is uncovered, and he seems to at least be thinking about the game dynamics. This generally isn't a mafia trait. Mafia tend to want to act only when they have a plan an they know how their action will affect the course of the game. When there are a lot of unknown variables around, mafia is reluctant to take a position. As Caller said, mafia operate best in an environment where they are acting from a position of certainty while the town is acting from a position of doubt. Node seems to be genuinely wanting to contribute, even when there is almost perfect chaos in the thread, an environment where mafia really doesn't need to do anything. Caller day 1 looks plenty townie. He isn't afraid to make accusations, and generally seems unafraid. It would be nice to see some more conviction from Caller, but for now there doesn't seem to be any pressing reason to suspect him. GMarshal day 1 acts consistently with his XXXVII appearance as town. Immediately gets started on a plan and is intent on contributing. His accusations of KillerSOS and Dreamflower are weak, but don't say much otherwise. His reaction in the voting is more consistent with his town play where the only thing he is really guilty of is that he is easily swayed. But GMarshal does that as town too. Of course, there are many reasons why a mafia GMarshal would want to post a 2/6 vote check list, but I don't see it as a likely outcome. GMarshal really isn't a dominant player in the grand political scheme of things, so volunteering this kind of information seems like little gain, especially if you know that its very likely that Incognito will be lynched. Flamewheel has been taking a nonchalant attitude this game. Seems to have been a good choice. Either way, he thinks logically and doesn’t seem to be afraid of anything. No eye popping content coming from him, but nothing suspicious either, as he provides logical and reasonable data. Overall, the fact that 2/6 mafia showed up on my list is surprising to me. Im going to expect that I was framed or something, but don’t let that stop you from just vigging me today. Barundar pops up to semi-defend Kavdragon (when he FOSes Caller for adding another suspect). A wreckless and unnecessary move given by the fact that Kavdragon was indeed town. Looking over at Radfield’s Barundar analysis again, I have to disagree. Barundar’s post does give an inconclusive opinion of me, but his points about me are legitimate and he does credit me for contributing key ideas. The kicker though, is the last sentence in that post, which is a question. Barundar asks “I guess my question to Foolishness and Ace is, how do you explain his contributions with regards to roles if he is mafia?” This indicates that Barundar isn’t trying to “subtly push the Incog lynch without being responsible for it”, as Radfield claims. Barundar doesn’t post as if he is trying to sway public opinion. The open endedness of his question suggests that rather than attempting to spread doubt, he is legitimately confused and wants to find an explanation to explain the incongruence between my wacky accusations and my other pro-town ideas. Post day 1, Barundar keeps up with showing town-aligned actions. Posts a list of suspects (after the vote, so as not to split the vote further), and posts a reasonable blues list along with opinions and an insight into how the lynch unfolded. Barundar is pretty town here. Radfield has the most elaborate pre-day 1 plan. Although I disagree with a lot of it (including a long list of roles that are unreasonably and irrationally labeled as “anti-town”), this is legitimate contribution. Radfield isn’t afraid of throwing out ideas and tweaking/improving his plan in response to criticism. Radfield not taking the role he assigned himself is not suspicious at all. He even said himself that the top 6 players should outwardly “agree” to follow the plan even if they aren’t. Given that Ace hasn’t come out yelling and screaming that Radfield picked an obviously anti-town role, it’s pretty much a no-brainer that Radfield’s pick makes sense somehow. Ace says that Radfield’s accusation of Barundar makes him suspicious. Even assuming that Barundar is town, this accusation makes no sense. Townies are wrong all the time. The important thing to analyze is not the fact that Radfield accuses a townie, but how he does it. In this case, Radfield’s accusation is coupled with reasonable sounding analysis, and Radfield continues to defend his case after the initial accusation. If Radfield as mafia doesn’t make sense since he could’ve jumped on the Kavdragon train and pinned all the responsibility on me. Radfield’s attack on Barundar doesn’t look like a scum post trying to hide the fact that Radfield is mafia. It just seems like a misguided analysis. Radfield is transparent about his thought process, and consistently shows that he is thinking reasonably and isn’t sticking to hard and fast policies. Infinitestory immediately jumps into the discussion on roles. His reactions to my unexplained voting are excellent. In response to my request that Flamewheel nuke GMarshal and my vote for Kurumi, infinitestory not only questions me, but lists 3 points of why my accusation was ludicrous and shows that he went through GMarshal and Kurumi’s posts and found nothing noteworthily suspicious. Not really something mafia would be naturally inclined to do. On night 1, his official accusation post of me is long. Didn’t read it, but its reasonable. Infinitestory had over 2 days to hop on my bandwagon, but it seems like he was legitimately confused and waiting for an explanation before coming to conclusions. It doesn’t seem like infinitestory is trying to hide anything here. Tnkted has a few reasonable posts in the early game, suggesting that the top 5 spots be protected (not really that original, but ok), as well as a suggestion for inventions. His later post summing up his thoughts about me/Radfield/Ace and his suspects seems reasonable. He’s spontaneous and inquisitive. Nothing suspicious here. Bumatlarge contributes early. A bit late out the gate and copies some stuff from Radfield though. After this, he posts a lurker list and votes one of them, which doesn’t say much, but isn’t a contribution. After this though, he still seems inquisitive and seems to be giving a genuine attempt to figure things out. More contribution from bum would be nice, but at this point no reason to suspect him. Its getting late now and I don’t feel like doing writeups on everyone. Townies Mr. Wiggles Kurumi Kitaman27 – leaning townie Dreamflower – leaning townie, but not too confident Eiii – leaning townie Fishball – leaning townie Mafia OriginalName KillerSOS Chaoser Foolishness In Limbo Deconduo Hmm I only came up with 4 mafia candidates. Well if one of Chezinu/Deconduo make it in then its 5. I’m going to guess there’s 1 mole. Anyway, good luck. | ||
Incognito
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Incognito
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On May 21 2011 01:54 Caller wrote: My friends, due to a variety of circumstances I've been away from the game. I've seen that we have a nice votelist and I'm curious why we're not using it to get two free kills and potentially secure the rest of the list. You should always clear the list. Always. That's why I suggest doing the following: We have Flamewheel (whom I'm pretty sure is town, with his past behavior, with him being shot and all(which I think makes sense given how there was only one death last night)), GMarshal (whom could be a tricky bastard, but I haven't seen his play style enough), Me, Node, Incognito, and Chezinu. Two of us are mafia. Best thing to do is to kill two people on that list. My commitment timewise has gotten lower than I would've liked, so I volunteer to have myself killed so you guys have more certainty on the rest of those people. Lynch me, or, given the time limit, it might be easier just to have Wiggles shoot me. Then you can kill Node or Incognito (personally, I suspect Incog more than Node, even with the nuke, as I smell a desperation bus) and we have a situation where we will know 100% if GMarshal is telling the truth or not. I see no reason for him to lie about there being more mafia on the list, so clearly if neither Incog/Node nor Chez is mafia then GMarshal should be killed tonight. If one of them is mafia, though, then you kill the other person. Two mafia easy, and makes whoever's still alive as safe townies. By getting rid of me we remove the uncertainty. Don't worry about losing my role, it's not a big deal to lose. TLDR: Kill Me, Kill Incog or Node. Might be easier just to have me king shot at this rate of voting, but whichever. Clears up list entirely. If neither Incog nor Chez are mafia, kill GMarshal tonight/tomorrow. Else, kill the other of Incog or Node that hasn't been killed yet. Either way, rest of list becomes clear and should be saturated with medic protection. And well if anybody is lying about their role you kill em. Lynch All Liars and all. Don't forget. This is a bad idea. There is a good chance I was framed and the list is bad. Other than that, if you're going to lynch me anyway, might as well wait to try indiscriminately shooting into the list to see if I flip red? (I know I'm not, but its stupid to kill 3 on the list) On May 21 2011 02:21 Barundar wrote: Am I the only one annoyed at how full of themselves some of the veterans are? Caller asks to be killed because he doesn't have time to play, when there is a bunch of substitutes ready. Incognito thinks we should kill Ace even though he thinks Ace is town, after Incognito himself is dead. Foolishness and Ace has been gunning for Incognito all game long. And both Caller and Incognito thinks Flamewheel will somehow win for the town after they are dead. 1) We aren't killing people because they are on a list, we kill them because we think they are mafia. Everything else is a stupid waste of town KP. 2) We don't kill Ace just because he annoys Incognito. See above. 3) Veterans aren't going to win the game alone, this is not you vs. the world. The reason why Ace should be killed is for political reasons. Yes, you try to kill scum. But when townies are obstructing reasonable discussion and blindly pushing their own agenda, you have to get rid of them simply to clear the atmosphere so you can start afresh and see the game through a new lens. In this game, I messed up in the beginning, and had to relook at the game all over again from a different perspective. You can't really force someone to do that, so when it seems like they will drive the town into the ground (yes, Ace holds enough sway in this town that people WILL listen to him), they need to be eliminated. A clear town with one less member is better than a confused and lost town with an extra member. This has nothing to do with Ace annoying me. If it did, I would've nuked Ace instead of Chezinu. Note how in Red Army Mafia (the bang bang one) I didn't eliminate Ace also even though he was being super obnoxious. He was pretty much doing the same thing he's doing now. Not sure if we should have killed him in retrospect, but in this game I'm feeling that Ace is off the right track. On May 21 2011 03:11 Ace wrote: Well Chezinu is the obvious Scum for sure. He didn't even attempt to defend himself so that's 1 down. I still think Incognito is the other Scum. I've already said it but I guess people expect some giant post which I won't do. It's very simple. Incognito has a role that was discussed earlier as a role a townie shouldn't have, and now he says "oh but Scum wouldn't be caught with this role, so it means I have to be town!" - um no. As I've always said Scum will do whatever they think furthers their win condition. If it means picking a role that shows up as Obvious Scum but they can WIFOM you to death and get away with it - they'll always pick it. Secondly this is just too convenient. Like I said he immediately launched the nuke at Chezinu with barely any discussion about it. No one save dreamflower ever even brought up a case about him and then all of a sudden it's a "pro-town move to nuke Chezinu". Come on people read the thread because this is bad play at it's finest. If he really is pro-town then why didn't he wait for input from anyone else or even discuss the other suspects? As for this lets lynch chaoser train it's the same thing as the Barundar train from yesterday. Shoddy reasoning and people not reading just going for the random lynch. Where is the analysis that chaoser is Scum? Translation: "Ok, I admit that Chezinu is scum, but I still think Incognito tried to bus him! Here's why anything Incognito does indicates that he's mafia!" Convenience? No. I could've easily nuked Node or Caller or someone else. Or even Ace (because yes, that would further my win condition). The thing is, I know that the nuke lands simultaneously with the end of the lynch, so its not like nuking a red helps to give me credibility (nobody knows Chez's alignment until its too late to save myself. GMarshal et al: stop trying to kill Node/Caller right now. There are higher priorities here. | ||
Incognito
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On May 21 2011 04:42 Ace wrote: wut? From Red Army Mafia Town won that game with my help. You must be confused about what happened. No the other communist mafia. Where the thread title is in russian. Town lost that game, mostly because of chaos and people were shooting randomly and didn't know what to do. To me you were obviously town, but obnoxious nonetheless. | ||
Incognito
United States2071 Posts
On May 21 2011 05:45 Foolishness wrote: Odds are even better because it's 2/5. So far Chaoser is the only one that sheds doubt upon the validity of the 2/5 (more due to mafia intervention with a framer than he doubts GMarshal). With all the nice KP roles for the mafia I find it hard to believe they would pick framer. Especially since if they wanted to hide themselves they'd be picking the GF roles instead of framer. As what Ace said before, we need to clean up the list now because the odds are better than trying to hunt in the town pool. I don't see how you can make an argument against this, especially since it's only day 2 (it's not like we got 5 days of analysis to try to pin down mafia). Anyone who tries to vote elsewhere or make analysis on other people than the 5 (6) in the list need to be looked at carefully once the list is sorted through. All you're doing at the moment is distracting the town. If we just focus on the list we can hopefully nail the 2 mafia without suffering town casualties. These paragraphs and paragraphs of analysis against myself, chaoser, KillerSOS are just cluttering up the town at the moment, and the people making these are mafia in my head because they are just trying to get the town off focus from the list. If you think I'm mafia, or chaoser is mafia, or whoever is not on the list, great. I'm all for throwing analysis around. But geez just wait until the list is cleared up and stop cluttering the thread. Summarize your suspicion in one sentence and focus on someone on the list. And before you jump on me for not doing this, I have wanted to kill Incog since yesterday, same reasons as Ace has stated, and that hasn't changed. If there still is a mafia on the list after Incog and Chez are dead I want to kill Node. Mr. analysis and scumhunting is content to go with "the odds" and chill on the sidelines. This is too funny. On May 21 2011 05:51 Mr. Wiggles wrote: Incog's nuke also doesn't do too much to his credit. Let me say this: Killing Chezinu, like KillerSOS or other lurkers, is easy. It was an easy kill, because town was expressing suspicion of him and a desire to kill him with my king lynch. As well, he hasn't contributed much if anything to town so far, and was mostly dead weight. So, killing him doesn't take much thought to do. That said, I don't think I'll kill Incog right now. I'd rather leave him alive, and at the mercy of the lynch. Actually, I think you should vig me right now so that you get more information that comes out of the scramble of all the invalid ##Vote Incognito votes. Its pretty clear that you will get no information from my lynch. Its easy for mafia to jump on either side of the wagon. If you vig me, people will actually be forced to give reasons on why they are voting for the other suspects. And Ironically you want to kill KillerSOS, who you say is a easy. Why go for the easy kill? Do the right thing and kill me instead and force people to give reasons for their votes on the other suspects. | ||
Incognito
United States2071 Posts
On May 21 2011 10:22 Mr. Wiggles wrote: Vigging you and having you flip green doesn't solve anything. All at does is make your voters hop over to Node, or KillerSOS, without the need to provide any substantial reasoning. If I were to shoot into you/Node, it would be because one of you are likely to be red. If I don't shoot into you, I'd effectively be doing house cleaning, getting rid of non-contributing, scummy looking, lurkers like KillerSOS or ON. There's already been a massive bandwagon on KillerSOS. People aren't focusing on that bandwagon too much because they are focused on lynching Incognito. Get rid of that, and suddenly they have to think about stuff. Voting Incognito is a no-brainer. Among all these "lurkers", there has to be a reason why you think one is more suspicious than the other. | ||
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On May 21 2011 10:34 Meapak_Ziphh wrote: Incog, in the most politiest way possible I am asking you to kindly shut up. Stop being such a damn martyr. At this point you're spamming and not being helpful. This is not martyrdom. Think of it logically. Because Incognito is on the vote list, this allows people to make the policy vote, it allows people to get away with voting without contributing anything to the discussion. Town doesn't benefit from easy lynches. Town benefits from difficult lynches in which people are forced to take a position. When there is an easy position and a hard position, that just invites mafia to come and pile up on one side. When there is no clear lynch target, mafia are forced to justify. | ||
Incognito
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On May 21 2011 10:41 Meapak_Ziphh wrote: Incog are you claiming mafia? If you are town you should be want more shots going into that group not less. Why is it foolish to shoot node even if we're lynching you? You should know you're town and want to hurt the mafia as much as possible. False. I don't trust the list check. I think someone was framed. | ||
Incognito
United States2071 Posts
Ace's guide to playing mafia Ace does not fail to disappoint. This game should be a great example for how to play politics and how to play mafia. Lets look at Dreamflower's points against Ace. First, she points out that Ace is tunneling off of very little information, and isn't looking at other people's suspicious actions. Only a few posts into the game, Ace suddenly comes to the conclusion that I'm mafia because I'm finger pointing, and pushes that point through the thread. Yes, I was finger pointing. But why does this make me mafia? Ace gives no such reason. Instead, he continues to push this idea until it finally becomes the truth. Between day 1 and now, Ace has successfully turned the small point about finger pointing into a mass lynch Incognito movement. This is exactly what mafia wants to do. They want to push bad lynches while inflating the notion that the target is "scummy". Once the target flips town, the accuser merely points to the evidence that the "target was scummy". And they are likely to get away with it, given the fact that they've gotten half the town to believe that "target was scummy". So what has Ace been doing here? He's been pushing a movement to lynch me off of shoddy evidence while hiding behind his "finger pointers are suspicious" shield. Let us examine the point about finger pointing. Is finger pointing inherrently suspicious? It is true that mafia want to lynch townies. It is also true that it is generally bad for town when there are multiple candidates out on the field, each with shoddy reasoning. It is also true that bandwagons formed on shoddy reasoning are anti-town. The crux of the matter is that it is anti-town when townies are lynched on shoddy reasoning. Ideally, the mafia want to push innocent lynches without being linked to the lynch. Mafia want to start a bandwagon on townies without being noticed. Why would town want to finger point? Generally, it is a bad idea to vote without explanation. Yet plenty of townies have done it, some to apply pressure (read: Foolishness in XXXVII for Seraph). Inactives also tend to do this. Is this pro-town behavior? Generally not. Is it an indication that said player is scum? No, townies do this all the time. So in general, while finger pointing isn't a very town-friendly action, it isn't a "scumtell". It is a slightly anti-town action that may be good support for other evidence that someone is mafia, but it should certainly not be the basis for any scum accusation. The second piece of Dreamflower's analysis is critical. She points out that Ace has literally ignored all my real contributions, hasn't criticized any of my actual points, and hasn't said anything definitive about anyone (except me and Radfield, who Dreamflower points out was also accused off of shoddy reasoning - Ace accused him because he started the Barundar lynch, even though we have no evidence of Barundar's town alignment). Note how Ace also doesn’t respond to Dreamflower’s accusation, but simply points out some errors in Dreamflower’s post that aren’t crucial to her argument. If you go back to look at Ace's posts, Dreamflower’s accusations are accurate. Ace ignores all my early game points about the politician/vote rigger combo, town roles, and thesis about how the game is progressing. Now I would perfectly understand if Ace disagreed with my points (people like Radfield certainly did). Yet he didn't do that, he merely ignored my post and throughout the whole entire game has refused to acknowledge the fact that I made some key contributions to the discussion. In the meanwhile though, he attacks me for asking people to reread the thread without specifying anything special. Its clear Ace is reading my posts. Selectively reading, that is. Ace is glad to point out where I'm scummy, yet fails to acknowledge some pretty important contributions I have made. Ace agrees that Kavdragon is suspicious earlier in the day ("something piqued my interest), prods him for a few pages in the thread, and even agrees that Kavdragon is timid, but then turns full circle and attacks me for leading the Kavdragon lynch. This is an excellent example of how mafia play. Ace is really the one who starts the Kavdragon lynch. Yet in public opinion, I am responsible for the lynch. Here's what happened. After Caller and Ace get the ball rolling, I fall for the bait and go on a rampant lynch Kavdragon train. My confidence and thread influence work in the mafia's favor this time and is perfect for Ace, as he can now do a 180 and appear to be "saving" Kavdragon while assigning responsibility for the lynch to me. When Kavdragon pops up town, Ace immediately points out the Kavdragon voters as super suspicious while making himself appear like he tried to stop a town lynch. But what did Ace really do? He accuses Kavdragon of BSing when Kavdragon claims he is "trying to gather information", and tells Kavdragon that he won't live til day 2. Later in the day after I have already started on the lynch Kavdragon train, Ace comes out and agrees that Kavdragon is acting timid, thus throwing more fuel onto the fire. Ace never votes Kavdragon, and toward the end of the day, switches his vote back to me (from Radfield) and states that "suspicious are the votes on KavDragon". Complete 180 from his previous (vicious) attacks that Kavdragon wouldn't live to see day 2 and that he was so timid. Once Kavdragon flips green, Ace trumpets the alarm, cries foul, and pretends like he never had a hand in the Kavdragon lynch. This is an example of perfect execution of scum play. Ace shows a textbook example of how to effectively finger point as mafia. Unlike me on day 1, he actively gives reasons for Kavdragon’s scumminess (the reasons are false scumtells, but they seem convincing as reasons nonetheless). This accusation catches fire, which leads others (Caller and myself) to take notice and agree with them. Once we build cases of our own, Ace then backs out right in time to pin the responsibility on me, using it to add fuel to the anti-Incognito case. As evidenced by the fact that he uses the Kavdragon lynch as a reason to paint me red, Ace clearly did not simply change his mind about the Kavdragon lynch. He intentionally started the lynch and blamed it on someone else. Townies have no reason to start a lynch and then turn around and accuse people on the bandwagon. Ace is hiding the fact that he was a major contributor to the Kavdragon lynch. Continuing on into day 2, Ace pops up and cries foul yet again after checking Radfield. While it is very likely that Ace is a capitalist and truly did check Radfield, his announcement does a brilliant job of adding fuel to the fire and furthering his case against "the unRadfield/Incognito duo", which is a complete fabrication. While it is true that Radfield has defended me, it should be pretty clear that Radfield is actually trying to think things through. In any case, Ace's cries of foul play further cast suspicion on Radfield even though Ace never reveals what Radfield's role is. Ace accuses Radfield for not following his own plan (hardly an indication of mafia), and announces to the world that Radfield "tried to pull some slick stuff", implying that Radfield has shady play without giving details. Ace creates a drama about Radfields role, gives out no details, and uses this to further his anti-Radfield case (at this point Radfield is inexplicably tied to me in his eyes). This effectively furthers mafia goals and places doubt on Radfield without Ace having to lie or show any real analysis. Could this action have been done by a townie? A townie has no reason to make a big fuss about Radfield’s role if it is not an absolute indication of scum. After Radfield says that anyone who knows his role should understand why he did not follow his own plan, Ace accepts this explanation, yet still “wonders” why Radfield didn’t follow his plan. Soon after, Ace drops the issue. From Radfield’s explanation, it seems clear that Ace should’ve already known the answer before asking the question. Which means that the only reason Ace could have asked the question was to cause a commotion and spread doubt about Radfield. Ace makes no conclusions and provides no further insights. His reaction to Radfield’s “its obvious” explanation shows that he wasn’t being inquisitive or trying to figure things out, he is intentionally spreading doubt. The vote list also furthers his case against me. Note however, that none of this evidence singles me out as mafia. He trumpets the "kill people on the vote list" mantra to make people want to focus on killing me instead of trying to go for some other suspects. He accepts the vote list at face value, and frames any attack on non-vote list suspects as irrational and anti-town. However, as I and others have pointed out, there is no real reason why we should have utter faith in the vote list. Ace himself even admits that he believes that the possibility of having a framer/GF is high, yet continues to pressure people to focus on the vote list. By focusing on the vote list, Ace is attempting to get townies to conclude on their own that I am mafia, once again without providing any analysis. Here's how the psychology works: Ace emphasizes that 2/5 on the list are mafia and that it is irrational not to lynch off the list. This causes people to think to themselves, "2/5 are mafia, so who do I think are the most suspicious?" Given Ace's constant pushing that I am mafia, townies are likely to subconsciously come to the conclusion that I am mafia, especially if they don't have the time or the willpower to go back through the thread and do a careful analysis. In essence, Ace's reinforcement of the vote list guides the players to the conclusion that I am mafia without him having to provide analysis. Once I nuke Chezinu, Ace again picks at the weaknesses in my posts while ignoring how my actions run counter to what the mafia would want to do. He claims that I agreed that America was an anti-town role (I did not), that I am going against my day 1 plan (I did not have a day 1 plan), that if Chezinu flips mafia then I am bussing him (no reasoning), and that I am anti-town because I did not discuss the nuking. Yet later he declares that "Chezinu is the obvious scum for sure". Is not discussing the nuking anti-town? Well, by itself, not discussing the nuking can by no means be claimed to be a pro-town action, but it isn't necessarily anti-town either. I had many reasons for not discussing the nuke, including not wanting to be bought by a potential mafia politician. Not discussing the nuke doesn't say anything about my alignment one way or the other. Notice how Ace goes about attacking me here. He tries to pin me on ideas I didn't say, paints America as an anti-town role, and questions how not discussing the nuke is pro-town. What he basically does is picks out errors I make and questions how they are pro-town. Logically, yes, not discussing my nuke is not pro-town (although its not anti-town). Ace uses biased questions and frames them in a way that makes me look guilty, when in fact I am not. He emphasizes things that are easy to paint as anti-town actions, while at the same time ignoring contributions I have made that show I'm pro-town. This is exactly what mafia want to do. But mafia is a game where you cannot judge someone as mafia just by how many sketchy actions they make. Proper analysis considers all of a players actions and analyzes them in the context of “what makes this action an action that only can be made by mafia”. Ace has not considered this, and his case against me is flimsy at best. His points consist of minor “scumtells” such as being on the wrong lynch (twice now), finger pointing, picking America, and nuking without discussion. In conclusion, the evidence shows that Ace is undeniably mafia. His actions perfectly align with a mafia mindset, and he carries out actions that could not be made by a townie. In the Kavdragon lynch, Ace is hiding from the fact that he is a major contributor to the lynch, and with the Radfield day 2 commotion, Ace was intentionally spreading doubt. Ace has effectively planted the "Incognito is finger pointing and thus mafia" idea into people's heads. Once I flip town, he will get off the hook because everyone will believe the "fact" that Incognito was scummy, when in reality, Ace has merely fabricated this entire idea. This reminds me of the movie Inception, which, ironically, features Leonardo DiCaprio. I must applaud him for this cleverly thought out humor. | ||
Incognito
United States2071 Posts
On May 22 2011 06:53 Radfield wrote: Anyways, we have more pressing matters at hand. For what it's worth, here are my thoughts heading into night. If we are dead set on lynching Incog tomorrow, then we shouldn't bother to waste any actions on him tonight. GMarshal should get a bulletproof vest from Node. This opens them up to a suicide bomber, but we risk worse by simply encouraging everyone to protect him. Having node make the vest leaves whatever other protective roles we have open and able to defend other key players. Obviously alignment checks in the list, but with a possible framer/godframer out there it may make sense for DTs to go with their guts. tnkted is a good role check(bus driver) though there are other good targets as well. Protective Roles: Deconduo is for sure town in my eyes. I understand your argument ace(I am difficult to lynch), but it certainly doesnt apply to decon. Meapak_Ziphh is also almost surely town. I had a strong townie feeling on Dreamflower, and Meapak is independantly oozing green as well. Fishball is town partly because he's playing reverse mafia tactics. Coast and don't bother contributing at the beginning of the game, contribute more and more as the game goes on. A few other players are surely or very likely town as well(you can check out my list a few pages back), but I doubt will be particularly juicy for mafia to hit. At this point, another mislynch will be disastrous for us. I'm going to ask everyone to kindly read over my Ace analysis with the view of trying to find mafia. Obviously, if I'm mafia, I'm going to try to save myself. But at the same time, as a townie, I'm going to do that too. As a townie, I'm also going to try to find scum. So dismissing my analysis because you think I'm egotistical or I'm just trying to dupe you again isn't a very good move. Consider for yourselves whether Ace is truly mafia or not before deciding to lynch me. Radfield: going ahead and lynching me because lynching Ace would be an "unpopular" move is not very pro-town. If you agree that Ace is mafia, then you have to see what he's trying to do here. He is trying to get massive political support for both our lynches when there really is no evidence. It doesn't make sense to go ahead with lynching me if you see that Ace is mafia. You say that I "obviously need to be lynched, as no case against Ace can progress with all the suspicion on my head". Can you clarify this statement? I don't understand the reasoning as to why Ace is unlynchable until I'm dead. If Ace's behavior indicates that he is mafia, as I've shown, then we should lynch him, period. Our goal is to lynch mafia. It seems that Radfield, Dreamflower/Meapak, and I all agree that Ace is scum. Given yesterday's vote, I don't see how "public opinion" should scare us into making the wrong decision. It is clear that a lot of people are unsure about the issue. Once Ace flips red, all doubts about me should be cleared. Tomorrows lynch must be decided by analysis. Look at the case against Ace, and the case against me. External factors such as vote list checks or "town consensus" should not matter here. Analysis is the key. Ace's response to my accusation has once again been avoidance. Ace isn't showing his typical confidence right now, and he doesn't bother refuting my points. Ace's responses show that he's giving up the argument. He knows that the only way for him to escape this one is if he ensures that everyone else is distracted by my lynch. | ||
Incognito
United States2071 Posts
After failing to save Chezinu with a bus, mafia just went downhill from there. Kurumi suiciding Infinitestory was a really strange move, especially given that you know Radfield was bulletproof, and he does have the capability to change the game. Second, while information is powerful, yes, Kurumi should've waited until absolutely the last second in order to suicide. That suicide came way too early. Well played by GMarshal, but unfortunately it would've been difficult to win anyway. The biggest giveaways were that a) Mafia 2 DT is the most overpowered role in the game. As soon as you're outed and are not dead, that is already a red flag, given how mafia were shooting into the top of the list anyway. I didn't expect Radfield to do a 180 and attack GMarshal viciously after saying he was going to accept GM as town, but hey, it worked out. Reading your first comment on GMarshal apologizing when announcing that list check made me confused. Certainly a decent point, but the more crucial point is that the previous post by GMarshal stated that "23. Ace- he is scum, and whatever he may say, he dosn't have a gun, or he would have used it already. When Incog flips green, someone should shoot him. Twice for good measure." Also on his list is "4.Chaoser- step up your game man. You are done with interviews and shit, so if you are town you need to start helping us. Now. Otherwise I'd be sure you're scum. I trust bum to keep an eye on you and force you to contribute." From these two thoughts, it seems that GMarshal is pretty confident on Ace as red, while his case on Chaoser is just that chaoser is being inactive and isn't playing his normal game. Yet when the day post shows up, he posts the results of the Incognito vote list and says his bet is on chaoser, when Ace is on the list. Given that in his last post GMarshal's strongest conviction was on Ace, this should ring a red flag. Other than that, Radfield got it pretty much correct. Sadly, announcing that last list check was a mistake. You basically cleared 3 people from suspicion, and when kita announced he was the medic, that basically forces you to shoot kita at some point, or else someone is guaranteed to survive on one of the other nights. Either way, it was going to be tough for you, nice effort at the end there. Wasn't sure why you took that gambit and encouraged people to get yourself lynched, but I suppose it would have been way harder to try to win it when it got down to the 3 way endgame. I thought the mafia picks were very confusing and suboptimal. Admiral Ackbar is a weak pick for mafia, and unless you can get a lot of blues to visit one person on one day, it usually isn't worth the pick. Bombing an alignment cop instead of a bulletproof Radfield was also a confusing move. Either way, mad hatter would have been a way better pick. Bomb two townies night 1 and 2, and then proceed to create chaos in the thread, finally going out with a bang if town decides they need to shut you up. NRA member was also a weak pick. Could have been more effective if Caller had drawn some morei investigations or whatnot, but at number 3, there was a good potential of other picks. Hatter at this position is great, given its possible you'll be checked. Some sort of KP role is also not bad. I like assassin at this point, as it gives mafia the ability to punish roleclaimers immediately. America nukes someone? Dead. Radfield claims bulletproof? Dead. Capitalist, while being a decent pick, isn't too great. Ace totally could've gotten away with picking compvig or some other gun role. I think mafia would've benefitted more from taking more KP roles and some misinformation or roleblocker. CPR + Compvig along with the bus driver, mad hatter, assassin or even a politician makes for a pretty nasty mafia team. Other than that, nice show by Caller and Ace. Caller's Kavdragon accusation was a beautiful mafia post. Went downhill from there, and Caller was certainly mafia after Ace was caught (Caller accuses people and they strangely seem to get lynched...while Caller has almost no presence in pushing the lynches and doesn't seem to be behind it all), but that was an excellent day 1/2 showing. Good thread control of course by Ace. I don't get why my Ace analysis was pretty much ignored after I got shot. I really thought that was a good analysis, as well as a nice instructional guide on good mafia thread control, but oh well. Oh also this level of thread activity was nice. Not too many posts, not too few. | ||
Incognito
United States2071 Posts
Oh. And I will consider this as a victory, given that I wasn't lynched. | ||
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