EPTPick Your Power Insane!
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Incognito
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On May 11 2011 02:50 Radfield wrote: + Show Spoiler [Rules] + *note: There is a new rule in place. In the event that your first AND second numbers clash with another player you both go straight to the bottom of the order. So if 3 players picked [4][1], [4][1] and [4][7] the 2 players with [4][1] are bumped below the player that picked [4][7] along with the original bump. All in All the most unique number combination gets priority. Draft Order Question: When two players pick the exact two numbers, [4][1] and [4][1], would they drop ALL the way to the bottom of the draft, or just below the player who picked [4][7]? If 6 numbers were chosen: A [4][1] B [4][1] C [4][7] D [8][1] E [8][2] F [10][1] Would the order be: F [10][1] C [4][7] D [8][1] E [8][2] A [4][1] B [4][1] Or would it be: F [10][1] C [4][7] A [4][1] B [4][1] D [8][1] E [8][2] My assumption is the former, but I just figured I'd check. Actually it would be: F [10][1] D [8][1] E [8][2] C [4][7] A [4][1] B [4][1] | ||
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GMarshal Kitaman27 tnkted Bum's post is on spot. Fortunately, I already mapped out some stuff. PYP Insane Game Plan The optimal picking strategy revolves around this cute little role: Thief You have the ability to steal the role of a specific player one time per game at night, meaning they lose their role and become vanilla, while you gain it. If you steal from a vanilla player, nothing happens to them and you gain nothing. You cannot steal the role of a traitor or mole. Neither you nor they may not use their role the cycle you steal from them. The following cycle after you steal you can use their role freely with the same limits taken from them. For example if the vote rigger already used his double lynch before you stole it, you will not be able to use it. This role obsoletes the PYP1 and PYP3 role picking strategies. The mere existence of the thief on the role list means that it would be seriously harmful for mafia to know where the good roles are. Of course, it’s a no brainer that the good roles are in the beginning part of the list. So my only advice is that if you’re in the beginning of the list, seriously consider picking a role such as NRA member or Meth Man to deter the mafia from hitting/stealing roles from the top of the list. Due to the fact that the mafia can coordinate numbers with each other while the town can’t, it is very likely that mafia will get a spot within the top 3. As shown by the past PYP games, mafia has gotten the first or second spot in all 3 games. Which means town will likely have to be on the defensive, as it is hard to guarantee that we can effectively deny mafia the thief role. The amount of potential KP in this game is huge. This means that there is a huge potential for the game to end quickly. The basic town strategy should be to avoid KP roles, while going heavy on investigative and defensive roles to try to prolong the game. Tier I Roles Mafia 2 Detective + Vote Rigger Inventor Chuiu Jack Modern Detective Role Cop Bullet Bill PYP3 Veteran Doctor Bulletproof Mafia 2 Detective combined with the Vote Rigger is a combo that allows us to break up the town into chunks and analyze with greater ease. The formula is simple. The Vote Rigger rigs the Day 1 Vote into 4 roughly equal blocks with 7, 6, 6, and 5 voters each. All the lurkers/suspicious people are piled onto one list, and the Modern Detective uses his vote check to check one vote block each day, starting with the lurkers. Town then proceeds to analyze the split lists, allowing for more focused analyses. The rest of the investigative roles are used to sort through the lists, while the defensive roles prolong the game and squeeze the mafia. The Mafia will want these roles Kingmaker + Politician Thief Caller Godfather Roleblocker Janitor JailKeeper Puppeteer Hero PYP3 Veteran NRA Member CPR Doctor The best mafia combo pick is Kingmaker + Politician. This effectively gives mafia an unlimited anonymous unblockable dayvig power, capable of sniping off all the top town players. Caller Godfather is also an obvious mafia role. As anyone who’s read Caller’s Mafia V knows, Godfather recruiting high level townies with good roles is a town’s worst nightmare. Denying this role is iffy, as a mafia thief has plenty of time to try to find the role and steal it before it can actually be of use. Jailkeeper, roleblocker, and NRA member are powerful roles for the mafia that prevent investigations, and potentially save mafia from NKs. Hero and PYP 3 veteran cause town pain when mafia slip out of lynches and snipe off a townie. Lastly, puppeteer is surprisingly useful for a good mafia arguer, as it allows them to anonymously mislead town and cause tons of chaos in the thread. However, the most critical roles that we need to deny are the Thief, Politician, Jailkeeper, and Roleblocker. Due to the threat of a mafia thief, we can’t discuss precise strategy here, but townies should strongly consider picking one of these 4 roles. By the way KillerSOS is mafia. Also Node is mafia. | ||
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On May 14 2011 13:21 bumatlarge wrote: Town roles Bad Santa Emperor - Do NOT pick this role. At best, its weak role. At worst, it destroys our ability to use the vote rigger/Mafia 2 Detective combo day 1. If anyone picks this role, that is an auto-sign of anti-town. I mean, this role isn't that fun anyway, I don't know why you'd want it. Priest - Due to the setup, this isn't a strong role. This game has a ton of potential for high KP, which makes resurrected townies less valuable. I'd rather have protective roles. Secondly, with high KP being thrown around, the chance that the priest dies before being able to resurrect is high Kingmaker - As I noted in my previous post, this is a strong mafia role. In town's hands, its mediocre at best. The kingmaker has to give it to townies, which could be hard as the game goes on (can't give it to someone twice unless everyone is cycled through, which means the chance of mafia getting it is higher as time goes on.) Bodyguard Assassin Bullet Bill Mafia 2 Detective Mafia roles Hero Janitor Thief Journalist Role Reverser Hider - Infinitely less powerfull than PYP3 veteran, jailkeeper, or bulletproof Bus Driver Vote Rigger Useful for the mafia, but not top priority for them. Unless they want to stop our strategy Politician Mafia XII Godfather - Too weak for mafia, as there are better options Caller Godfather Pardoner Prince o Darkness Roleblocker Agent of Chaos - The role is only useful if recruiting mason is picked. Mafia won't pick this because if town doesn't pick recruiting mason, this role is useless. They have much better options. Town shouldn't pick this role anyway though. I didn't include things that would be ovbiously strong for both parties. I picked things that I feel would favor that faction over the other one. For instance, a town bad santa can be game breaking, but that it isn't to say that a mafia one wouldn't be strong as well. Faking a "confirmed town list" could be deadly, but it's all negated if that bad santa dies. And I personally feel like the journalist can be pretty good for mafia, but absolutely useless for town. If anyone has any critique of this list or doesn't understand why I put them there, please tell me. | ||
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Ace Flamewheel Foolishness Dreamflower Incognito Also [9][1] The fact that 40% of the players picked either 4 or 9 is hillarious. Certainly should make things easier for us. | ||
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##Vote Kurumi | ||
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On May 16 2011 15:43 Ace wrote: Anyone else that didn't claim numbers should soon. I'm surprised no one has made a big deal about number clashing yet like in PYP 1. With so many unique numbers at the top and a bunch of clashes from 16 on down I think focusing our investigations into the clashing sets is a good start. We somewhat have an idea of what should be in the top slots so if any bad actions that were already discussed happen we know where to look. No. Mafia are unlikely to double pick numbers, so there is likely to be less than 2 mafia in the bottom 10 spots. We'd be better to have our investigative roles check out the top of the list. More number variety = more chances of finding red. | ||
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On May 17 2011 05:14 Foolishness wrote: And as someone already pointed out, the obscene amount of number collisions on the bottom half of the draft give way to the idea that most mafia are probably in the top half. Hmm, who was that someone? Oh wait, it was me! On May 17 2011 05:46 GMarshal wrote: KillerSOS So, I did a search of all his posts in order to find any posts that were relevant to analyze, looking for something juicy. There is exactly nothing, he has posted nothing but one liners. I'll pull out the ones that seem relevant, but theres *nothing* there. Here are some examples of his great contributions + Show Spoiler [great contributions!] + On May 14 2011 10:28 KillerSOS wrote: Well I'm going with two mid range numbers. Dare you to guess them. Completely irrelevant post, also not true he picked [5] IIRC, which is not really midrange, usless post On May 15 2011 17:03 KillerSOS wrote: I like how 13 was near the top. Interesting. Contribution = 0 On May 16 2011 16:15 KillerSOS wrote: I also believe that clashes in numbers won't be that useful this early in the game. I'm sure that the mafia are smart enough to grab some top slots, while at the same time randomizing the other half of their members. First game relevant post, and all it does is shoot down a decent idea, without actually contributing anything, bravo, so far my "lurker" radar is going nuts. On May 17 2011 03:10 KillerSOS wrote: I think it's fairly obvious that you are just spitting out nonsense. Would you like to explain yourself? People are accusing me, quickly demand an explanation of why they think that my 8 posts are all contentless one liners! KillerSOS is lurking, and I've made my stance on lurkers clear in the past, hang them all! ##Vote KillerSOS Get in here and contribute or hang by the neck till dead, I'd rather you did the former, but if you refuse I have no issue hanging you for it. There are way worse posters than KillerSOS. And suddenly you want to hang him? This is so random...oh wait... Flamewheel, seriously just nuke this duder. To all of you voting me, just think how I could possibly be mafia for a second. I come out and post about the vote rigger/list check combo, that apparently nobody else was even thinking about. There is absolutely no reason for me to do this as mafia. So what's the explanation for my weird play? I'm in Chicago for the weekend. Ver/Foolishness/Flamewheel all know this. I don't have the time I need to play a proper Day 1 (which unfortunately is one of the most crucial parts of the game), but I should be able to play seriously starting tomorrow after I finish my midterm. Bumatlarge is also on the right track. Chaoser is a good vote too. Actually, wait, a better vote than Kurumi. I'll put Chaoser as 85% mafia. ##Vote Chaoser We can only check one list at a time, and while checking a small list is much more helpful, I see no reason why the voterigger needs to get involved to create one. If he messes with the votes, then we lose most of the information we would have gotten from the voting that cycle. If the voterigger is mafia, the worst he can mess us up is if he places and equal amount of mafia on each list. What we don't want is overlapping lists. Vote rigger does this most effectively. I mean, for all I care vote rigger can wait till the last second to use his power and give us the entire 48 hours to debate. We should still be good even if he uses his power. Also we can check more than one list at a time. Night 1 inventor should give a vote checking kit to a trusted townie who isn't likely to die tonight (*hint* - pick me). That gives us 2 instant list checks by day 2. To all of you whining about how we should stop focusing on list checks and start scumhunting, I disagree. Partially. We should do both. Scumhunting obviously takes priority, but we shouldn't neglect vote list checks. Although the situation currently isn't ideal, it is by no means terrible. There's plenty of time left in the day and already things are beginning to pop up. List of invisible posters: GMarshal Kurumi Radfield tnkted Anyways, got a plane to catch now. | ||
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I also believe that the thief is not an active role in this game. Due to the way the numbers turned out, it is likely that the mafia got enough top spots that they don’t need to steal roles. Also now that I’ve read Radfield’s posts (yes, I ignored them before), he’s likely town. But he’s still useless and so should be ignored. I repeat, Inventor should hand out a vote checking kit. This is by far better than bulletproof vests, bulletproof kits, or gunpowder detectors. Deconduo's vote actually makes sense. Stop trying to kill him. It is clear that some people are trying to push a sort of policy lynch. Please stop knee-jerk reacting and think for a moment before trying to lop off my head. Contrary to popular belief, mafia really have no reason to point fingers everywhere. Unless one of their own candidates is leading the vote and they desperately need an alternative. Really its up to the town to figure out the first lynch, so mafia could care less if town doesn't have any leads. Mafia is unlikely to have picked copycat, as thief is far superior. So really there's no reason to save Scamp if you think he's red. Which, makes sense if you read his posts. | ||
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On May 17 2011 06:25 Kavdragon wrote: Upon further review, there is nothing of much significance with Mr.Wiggles. He doesn't make scum slips, he doesn't contradict himself as far as I see, but all of his contributions and posting are very "safe". He doesn't come out with any opinions that are unique, and seems to sheep behind a lot of people in an attempt to blend in. The one thing that sticks out about Mr Wiggles is that he doesn't want to stick out. It seems like he's doing his best to get by with minimal contribution, and that fits my pattern for scum. We now have a healthy pot of information to sift through. Guess I know what I'm going to do tomorrow. Everyone should go back and look at what's already been posted. | ||
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Everyone should be giving an opinion of me right now If you look at the thread, you'll notice that only a handful of people are popping up to accuse/defend me so far. Given how loud Ace et al are talking, I find it ridiculous that some people are popping in here without actually weighing in on this. We have people like GMarshal, who has said nothing of significance. Also Kavdragon, who has this strange fixation to defending himself without saying anything about me or pushing an alternative. Am I really that invisible? I hope not. Everyone who pretends I am invisible just wants to avoid being accountable for any sort of position. This is not something you can be unsure about. My posting this game has been so out of style that you MUST have something to say about it. The mafia want to avoid making an opinion. They want me dead, but they don't want to make it look obvious when they know I'll flip green. Some townies are naturally going to refrain from giving an opinion. After all, reading a few of my posts out there, I am pretty intimidating. But really, there's no reaso to be shy. Get out here and give your opinion. There is no reason to avoid this topic. Step 1: Identify town focus discussion - done. Its me. There are 2 discussion points that should be discussed from here on out. 1. There is now a referendum on Incognito. Everyone must weigh in. 2. Get the vote rigger to rig the votes if possible. If not, we need to do this ourselves. 1. It should be fairly obvious by now that I am town. Read over my posts again. The only real accusation against me is that I'm trying to cause chaos, therefore I'm mafia. But this post should put an end to that, because I'm basically calling a trial on myself and trying to consolidate the lynch. All this "lynch incognito because he is random voting" is bad reasoning. Mafia is a game about thinking. Choosing the easy way out by just policy lynching people who's play you don't like is sadly bad play in itself, even if Ace thinks he is awesome because of it. Also, sadly for us, policy lynching allows mafia to blend in with zealous pro-policy-lynch townies. 2. Here's why vote rigger should rig today's vote instead of just "spreading votes around a few candidates" to make checks. If we just "spread votes around", mafia have the luxury of being able to spread their votes out among the candidates and remain relatively safe from the vote checks. Secondly, the benefit of using the vote rigger is that we can separate the suspicious people from the innocents. Vote rigger doesn't randomly spread votes around. He places the more suspicious people on one list, while putting the strongest innocents on one list. If he did his job well, there is a strong possibility that the "innocents" list will show up with no mafia, thus giving us a big lead. Everyone stop freaking out about the vote rigger being anti-town. If the vote rigger is mafia obviously they're going to try to screw us up with it. Although it would be kinda difficult to do so. But if the vote rigger is town, what is there to fear? In any case, since we don't know if we have a vote rigger or not, we need to ensure that we get roughly good vote check lists in the event that we do not have a vote rigger, or he decides not to cooperate with us. So here are my proposed lines: Kavdragon - This list will consist of likely townies Caller Incognito Flamewheel Foolishness bumatlarge Radfield GMarshal Kurumi Ace tnkted infinitestory Dreamflower Deconduo KillerSOS Scamp - This list will consist of lurkers Chezinu Eiii OriginalName Fishball kitaman27 Chezinu - This list will consist of suspicious people Node Scamp GMarshal chaoser Barundar Kavdragon | ||
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Kavdragon - This list will consist of likely townies Caller Incognito Flamewheel Foolishness bumatlarge Radfield GMarshal Kurumi Ace tnkted infinitestory Dreamflower Deconduo KillerSOS Scamp - This list will consist of lurkers Chezinu Eiii OriginalName Fishball kitaman27 Mr. Wiggles Chezinu - This list will consist of suspicious people Node Scamp GMarshal chaoser Barundar Kavdragon Mafia 2 DT can check one list per day. Inventor can give out a vote list check kit. And still, 2 vote checks are better than nothing. Really we only need 3, as the 4th one we can infer by the results of the others. And as Ace said before, anyone who is a stray vote can just be individually checked. *Oops accidentally edited instead of quoted. Reverted to original state. | ||
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On May 18 2011 08:24 Radfield wrote: Another post to look at! Hoorah! Fortunately it even came in before my attack. Lets see if it follows the general trend. This whole post is directing other players to vote for incognito, yet not really taking a stance either way. I finished reading this post, and wasn't really sure if Barundar was actually even going to vote for Incog(he did). Ok there are problems with Incogs play(agreed), there are some positives and negatives to lynching him(agreed). These are just generally agreed upon points, sensible points, but nothing that needs to be re-pointed out. He 'doesn't buy' Incog's excuse, yet isn't directly pushing other players to vote for him. Simply putting points and notes out into the wind. Best of all, he finishes with a question that has an obvious answer, and doesn't need to be asked. No risks, just recapping whats happened, with the ever so slightest hint of an opinion. Again, nothing that isn't sensible, and nothing that I particularly disagree with, but with the looks of someone wanting to have some substance behind their vote(as opposed to someone having substance behind their vote). Excellent post. Maybe I should change GMarshal to Barundar for the vote list checks. | ||
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On May 18 2011 06:28 Kavdragon wrote: This is how I play town. Go look at XXXVIII. Look at XXXVI. Incorrect. Here's a post from XXXVIII. On April 11 2011 06:43 Kavdragon wrote: Screw it. I'm still 10 pages behind cause i had a sound gig I was running this morning, but this needs to get out there asap. (Sorry if it ignores stuff that has happened since page 31) Protactinium is Red. Dr.H is Red. First and foremost, don't let anyone fool you into thinking that the mayor is a unimportant role. It's EXTREMELY powerful, and VERY helpful to the town. This is a problem for the scum team, so they need a plan to bring it down quickly. So what do you do? First, you try to get a member into the office. It doesn't matter WHICH spot because they are both told the names of the bodyguards, and it doesn't matter HOW it's done, because the person put into that seat will be a sacrifice. Letting one of 8 members die is an excellent trade if you knock out the mayor, and secure the pardoner's role for it. As a bonus you can knock out most, if not all meaningful discussion the first day. Now how can this be done? Have one member claim assassin, have another intimidating member bully and be extremely negative of everyone else running for mayor. My case for Protactinium v1.0 Protactinium has done only one thing so far, and that is announce and defend his Assassin claim Gambit. An interesting, and somewhat appealing plan at first glance, but upon deeper inspection doesn't make sense. I know that Protact is a VERY skilled scum player. He's a good player all around. This gambit of his is a huge risk, because he doesn't know if town will let him in. If he played it quietly, he'd have a better chance than most. He says he came up with a new way to try to survive: become pardoner. It makes sense for a little bit, because that spot is protected. But there's a problem: As he has said multiple times, he wants to use this to get into the endgame, where he can throw his last hammer and then be done. It would work if the mayor lived that long, but to quote foolishness, "Mayors have a pretty high mortality rate". He wants to hid behind bodyguards, but look how fast they fell in insane! Over all, there is SOME validity to the strategy, but not NEARLY enough for someone of Protact's skill level to try it. It's not his level of play. It doesn't make sense. On the other hand, what if he's Red? It'll become apparent enough pretty quickly, and he'll die. So that makes no sense, right? WRONG. There are 8 players on the scum team, and the mayor is a very powerful role. You can cause TONS of havoc from this position, and if you play it right, you might even be able to survive for a few days and stop a lynch. It doesn't even matter if the lynch was going to kill a townie or mafia, because when you flip, people will see that mafia stopped a lynch, and that person is sure to be lynched again. This saves them a whole day either way. This is EXACTLY the level of play I would expect out of an excellent scum player. Before you say that Mafia wouldn't sacrifice one of their better players, it's was done before when Protact and BloodyC0bler were playing in XXVIII. Protactinium is SCUM He is my currently on my "to-be-lynched" list, and even if you don't agree with my conclusion that he is definitely scum, you cannot deny that there is a strong possibility, and because of this, he should not be voted into office. No question. My Case for Dr.Helvetica v1.0 I've only played with Dr.H once before, and that was in Salem. It was my first game, and I was subbed in. he played EXTREMELY differently in that game. He was positive, helpful, and gave good insight and ideas freely. This game he has been extremely negative of almost anything suggested. He has used his considerable prowess at being intimidating to bully players, and stomp on very pro-town ideas. On top of that, he has been posting TONS and been pretty spammy about it too. There's a lot of new players, so what better way to scare them off than to drown them with hundreds of posts? Stomping on my attempts to help newer players. Stomping on Gmarshal's attempt at running for mayor. Stomping on Tnkted's EXTREMELY PRO TOWN IDEA. All of this is EXTREMELY ANTI-TOWN no matter how you look at it. Everything he is doing is clearly designed to snuff out new people so that we have tons of inactive players. Doc H is a good mafia player, and there's no way that this is not being done on purpose. Doc H is mafia, and he's doing a damn good job of both spamming the thread to pieces, shutting down pro-town ideas, and intimidating new players. These are just a few examples of how he is destroying a pro-town environment in the thread. I think that everyone has seen this for themselves though. He has almost 100 posts and it's not even half way through day 1! He has contradicted himself multiple times with his mayoral campaign (I'm not going to run --> Mayor is unimportant, and i wish it weren't here --> I can't trust ya'll, I'm going to run). The reason why he singled me out so early was because I am dedicated to doing exactly the oposite of what he is trying to do. I will not get sucked into an argument with him that will spam the thread. I will not stop posting good advice for newer players. I know it looks scummy. I don't care. It will help newer people, and that's worth it. If I can mobilize the the masses before i die, i die a happy death. I refuse to stand by while he destroies the learning environment I am trying to build up. DoctorHelvetica is SCUM This comes early Day 1. Notice how bold and confident it is. Was he wrong? Yes. Honestly, his case is made off of very little information and many assumptions. But that didn't stop him. After his first accusation post he keeps pushing. Even after this, he keeps mentioning his thoughts. All throughout the day he points out scum. Not "gathering information", but real accusations. He accuses at least 5 people throughout day 1. Even when DH says he will consider lynching him, Kav remains aggressive, maintains his focus on DH, and dares DH to lynch him. That is aggressive, risky play. Now look at this game. Kavdragon suddenly retracts into his hole, is "afraid" of good players, and needs to poke for information. He doesn't follow a coherent train of thought, and his defense isn't anywhere near convincing either. He doesn't strongly accuse anyone of anything, and his defense shows that he cares a lot. Overall, strong case for red. ##Vote Kavdragon | ||
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On May 18 2011 08:59 Fishball wrote: Me lurking? Never! All oldies knows I rarely point fingers at anyone, no matter what alignment I am, until I have something solid. Standard Fishball IMO, especially this early into the game. For shits and giggles, I talked to BC on MSN and gave him my incomplete-preliminary Mafia list. I'll be sure to brag after the game if I get anything right, *cough*. Time for The Witcher 2! Sorry, I was mistaken. You are the pinnacle of pro-town play. Just vote Scamp, k? | ||
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Kavdragon - This list will consist of likely townies Caller Incognito Flamewheel Foolishness bumatlarge Radfield Ace Barundar Kurumi tnkted infinitestory Dreamflower Deconduo KillerSOS Scamp - This list will consist of lurkers Chezinu Eiii OriginalName Fishball kitaman27 Mr. Wiggles Chezinu - This list will consist of suspicious people Node Scamp GMarshal chaoser Barundar Kavdragon | ||
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