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Radfield
Canada2720 Posts
So if there were 6 original mafia and we can assume they wouldn't double pick numbers, 3 of these are part of the remaining mafia, and Foolishness and bum both can't be scum. GMarshal, Radfield are fairly clear imo, and I know I'm not mafia. Eiii was cleared by IS, but he could be GF.
This is a bad assumption I think. We already know that scum collided their numbers at least once. Either Chez/Kurumi, or Chez/Tnkted(we don't know if chez was 4 or 9). Hunting scum based on numbers is an ineffective strategy. I've said it before, but if I had been mafia this game, I would have pushed to either double up or triple up on numbers with scum. Frankly, I think it's the reason there are so many 9's(Chez, Ace and Kurumi all take 9).
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Radfield
Canada2720 Posts
On May 25 2011 00:19 GMarshal wrote:Show nested quote +On May 24 2011 23:24 deconduo wrote:On May 24 2011 23:12 Radfield wrote:
So if there were 6 original mafia and we can assume they wouldn't double pick numbers, 3 of these are part of the remaining mafia, and Foolishness and bum both can't be scum. GMarshal, Radfield are fairly clear imo, and I know I'm not mafia. Eiii was cleared by IS, but he could be GF.
This is a bad assumption I think. We already know that scum collided their numbers at least once. Either Chez/Kurumi, or Chez/Tnkted(we don't know if chez was 4 or 9). Hunting scum based on numbers is an ineffective strategy. I've said it before, but if I had been mafia this game, I would have pushed to either double up or triple up on numbers with scum. Frankly, I think it's the reason there are so many 9's(Chez, Ace and Kurumi all take 9). Either way, Caller should be vigged tonight if we have one. I agree with this. I'd also really like it if a rolecop could verify chaoser's claim. As to all other DT actions, the risk of the framing godfather means we can't direct them. I trust them to do what they must. I'm considering saving my list check tonight and using a rolecheck instead. Thoughts?
Well, keep in mind that if we have a XIIGF in the game, he is immune to role and alignment checks, and will just make the other scum look innocent as well. The mole will likely be open to a check, but the mole is likely one of the players who have appeared pro-town so far.
Until we kill the gf(if there is one), we can't rely on role checks or alignment checks. Unless they flip scum of course, as I doubt the GF will try to frame someone(and if he does, he leaves all the other scum open to checks).
Vigging Caller is fine.
I would stick with the list checks, possibly even checking one of the lists you've already checked. That would likely reveal if we have a gf around, as his scum buddy will probably get innocented tonight.
IE: if you check the Incog vote list again, and we show up with 0 mafia, then we know that one of those players was covered. If it comes up with 1 mafia, then we know all investigations directed at those players are likely legit(as no one was covered). Again, the mole screws with this a bit, but that can't be avoided(mole is really hard to deal with  )
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Radfield
Canada2720 Posts
I think Ace is about to get fucked.
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Radfield
Canada2720 Posts
On May 25 2011 15:00 bumatlarge wrote:
Caller
Radfield - town
GMarshal - town
Foolishness
bumatlarge - town
Chaoser - town
Eiii - town
meapak - town
kitaman27
What I think, the other two scum are among the 3 others. If anyone has information, now is the time!
You are playing this wrong Bum. There is only 1 scum out of the three others + 1 mole who could be anyone. A new game started at the beginning of Day 3, and no one is confirmed non-mole unless you're basing it off their post-Day 3 activities and posts.
If Caller is vanilla mafia all the list checks make sense, and there is no GF in the game. This seems by far the most likely scenario. I highly doubt that Caller was 'framed' as it would be strange to make him a 'vanilla' mafia(though it does make sense that Caller may have gone after Inventor).
With Decon dying and flipping vanilla townie, we can confirm that I did indeed take Bulletproof. My alignment may still be in question, but my role is not.
If Caller is indeed vanilla mafia then whomever the mole is has a KP role(unless a townie makes a claim on Decon or Wiggles). This means that players with a confirmed non-kp role are not the mole.
Players with a semi-confirmed or confirmed role:
Radfield - Bulletproof
GMarshal - M2DT
Chaoser - Modern Detective (will be confirmed after callers flip)
Bumatlarge - Bad Santa
This means the mole is among these players:
Kitaman27
Meapak_Ziphh
Eiii
Foolishness
Caller
I think caller is almost certainly the other scum. Please role claim though Caller. If not caller then foolishness is next.
GMarshal, what were your role or list check results?
Scum team:
Ace
Tnkted
Chezinu
Kurumi
Caller
That looks fairly right.
Whomever the role cop is should claim, and should reveal last nights actions. The more roles we can confirm the better the hunt for the mole will go.
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Radfield
Canada2720 Posts
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Radfield
Canada2720 Posts
Someone killed Incog, and it makes sense if they were trying to frame caller. Otherwise I'm not sure why they would narrow down the list like that if Caller is red. If Caller flips green, then we know we have a framing role in play, as I'm very skeptical that GM is red and falsified the lists.
If Caller is innocent, we DO NOT kill Chaoser, since we know we're looking for a godfather. We are fairly confirmed that Chaoser is in fact the modern detective, so he can't be the godfather. The only players left who can be the godfather are Foolishness, Kitaman, Meapak or Eiii, as the rest of the players have confirmed roles.
If Caller is the NRA member, than he would have killed the first person to visit him last night, AND shown up as vanilla to a role check. It seems likely that Wiggles would have tried to check Caller and died, leaving Chaoser free to check him and get back the vanilla result.
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Radfield
Canada2720 Posts
I suppose it also makes sense for mafia to kill Incog if they were out of BusDriverings. Certainly the next nuke that Incog threw was headed Ace's way, which would have confirmed Incog as town, and meant the mafia would have to contend with him the rest of the way.
Anyways, we'll reassess once Caller is dead.
Any chance we can end Day 4 today?
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Radfield
Canada2720 Posts
Yep, unfortunately it doesn't allow us to narrow down our mole to a kp role.
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Radfield
Canada2720 Posts
If there's no mole we're home free. Otherwise it's very difficult to find the mole. Even though Chaoser and Bum have attacked scum, it still only partially clears them. If I was the mole I would just bus my buddies and cruise to the win. Especially in this game where the mafia were already so down and out.
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Radfield
Canada2720 Posts
Foolishness, in the interest of being clear, do you think I have been mafia from the start of the game, or are you saying you think I'm the mole, because those are very different accusations. Also, you seem to be insinuating that my activity level has dropped since the start of Day 3, when I have posted far more than any other player since that point in the game.
As far as our plan moving forward, it depends entirely on which way and what Caller flips.
If Caller flips green: We still have to find the last OG Mafia. We know that either GM is red, or that we have a godfather/framer in play. I think we would all agree that it is really unlikely for GM to have been mafia since the start of the game, so we would look for players with unconfirmed roles in order to find the godfather, this means Eiii, Foolishness, Meapak, Chaoser or Kitaman is the Godfather/framer, since all the other players have confirmed power roles. In addition, if Caller is not the NRA member or a kp role, we know we are looking for a mole/6thmafia with a kp role(given that 2 people died last night and no townie has claimed responsibility). This means that the mole or 6th mafia is once again either Eiii, Foolishness, Meapak, Chaoser or Kitaman. Any player who can prove they have a non-kp role is in the clear. Chaoser might be cleared, but I need to check the time stamps and see if Ace could have found out Bum's role and passed that info on to Chaoser.
If Caller flips Vanilla Red: This is the best scenario, as we know there is no godfather and we know that we need to find the missing KP from last night. That clears Eiii(parity cop), and chaoser(who found Caller) and leaves Meapak, Kitaman or Foolishness as the mole, since they do not have confirmed roles. However, GM has rolechecked Foolishness, so he can confirm his role(hopefully non-kp). That would just leave either Meapak or Kitaman as the last remaining mafia/mole.
If Caller flips Red NRA Member: This is both the most likely and possibly the most difficult situation assuming we do actually have 1 mole. This leaves us at 7 townies vs 1 mole(or 6th mafia). It also means there is likely no Godfather as all the list checks become accurate. Chaoser(found Caller) and Bum(killed Ace) both become unlikely candidates as the mole, since both have made large pro-town moves post-day 3(bum more so than Chaoser). Every other player in the game could be the mole. However, what I didn't realize until Bum pointed it out is that the mafia have known who the mole is since Day 1, which means we can look for players who have either been not targeted when they should have been or have not been pressed to be lynched by the mafia. A careful combing of the thread should give us some substantial leads considering we have 5 mafia members we can analyse.
These are the scenarios as I see them moving forward. I may have made a mistake along the way, so everyone should double check them and point out any inaccuracies or wrong assumptions.
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Radfield
Canada2720 Posts
GM, what you should do with your last list/role checks depends on which scenario occurs. Same with Chaoser's checks and the Role Cop's check(we do have a role cop still right?).
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Radfield
Canada2720 Posts
On May 26 2011 20:08 kitaman27 wrote:Show nested quote +On May 26 2011 17:53 bumatlarge wrote:
Foolishness is obvious because of his connections with ace and what not, but I wouldn't say he has been scummy. Kita has been mostly a nonfactor this game, totally lurkish. Maybe I just haven't been paying close attention, but he seems like a good mole candidate. I pointed out to the thread that tnkted claimed to be picking the busdriver, which led to his alignment check. I was the first person to call out Caller when everyone else was convinced he was town. I also was one of the few people who tried to push Calller for a role claim. How am I a good mole candidate? GM should use his alignment vote check. Role checks won't be much help at this point.
Agreed. Frankly I see you as unlikely to be the mole as your activity and pro-townness has gone quite up since the beginning of Day 3. I think you were targeted for lynching by mafia somewhat during the game as well, but I'll have to go back and check through.
Role Checks are still helpful in some scenarios, but useless in others. Depends on Callers alignment and role.
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Radfield
Canada2720 Posts
Facts:
 econ flipped town
econ claimed he went for Bulletproof, but got vanilla, therefore, someone above Decon took bulletproof, or Decon lied for a very strange reason.
*The only players left alive above Decon are GMarshal, Radfield and Caller. GMarshal is the confirmed M2DT(Police Radio). Therefore either Radfield or Caller are Bulletproof.
*Ace(mafia) rolechecked me and came back with Bulletproof, which he then tried to twist as a reason to cast suspicion and doubt on me.
Why do you find it so hard to believe I'm bulletproof? Because I didn't claim some other random power role in the thread to try to draw a hit on Night 1? Fact of the matter is, I don't actually need to do anything out of the ordinary to draw hits, this has been shown time and time again, not to mention I actually wanted to play the game past Day 2(which has only happened once before). I can almost guarantee, if ace had not role checked me night 1(which already shows he thought I was a threat), then I would have taken the hit instead of Barundar on night 2.
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Radfield
Canada2720 Posts
Also, I never forced Scamp to claim. I never even addressed a post to Scamp as far as I remember, and I certainly never encouraged him to claim. I gathered that scamp was inventor, and posted in thread(in brackets) that I thought he was the inventor. This has two effects: makes scamp know that I am holding him accountable, and lets medics know who is the likely inventor(mainly to hold him accountable though)
If you look back at PYP1(or maybe PYP2?), I did the exact same thing to YOU when I thought you were the compvig. Everytime I wrote Compvig(foolishness) I would put your name in brackets. I never addressed a post to you, or encouraged you to claim, but I let you know that I knew you were the compvig, and that if anyone random died during the night, you were next for lynching.
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Radfield
Canada2720 Posts
I never said being bulletproof made me a townie(it doesn't), I simply said that there is no debate whether I actually AM bulletproof or not.
As far as lynching tomorrow, that depends entirely on what caller flips. Hunting for the mole is very different from hunting for mafia.
I think using your list check on today's lynch is a bad idea. The mole now comes up as being mafia, so we KNOW how many reds will show up on the list. Either 1 or 2, depending on if Caller is red or not.
I think you should check one of the old lists, in an attempt to narrow down the mole(assuming caller flips red). Either way though, we have to see Callers flip before we set our plans in stone.
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Radfield
Canada2720 Posts
No, Eiii was checked night 1. Night 2 IS checked himself and got 'same'. Day 3 IS was killed and never got a 3rd check, so Eiii could still be the mole. He could also still be the godfather assuming Caller flips green.
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Radfield
Canada2720 Posts
Either the KillerSOS list: Eiii, Meapak, Radfield, Kitaman
Or the Barundar Day 1 list: Radfield, Bumatlarge, Meapak, Kitaman
I think I like the second list better because Bum is mostly confirmed non-mole at this point, and will probably be targeted by the mafia/mole. That means we can narrow it a bit further right off the bat.
Mind you, GM isn't confirmed either, so any list check is somewhat suspect until he is cleared. On that note, it would be best for Chaoser to check GM and any protective roles to protect either Chaoser or GM(heavier emphasis on Chaoser). That leaves Bum on his own, but better that then lose our dt roles.
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Radfield
Canada2720 Posts
You misunderstand GM. I don't think you're mafia, but I'm saying you could still be the mole. I don't think you lied about any lists at all, but keep in mind that last night(first night as mole) you did not use a list check, and instead role checked foolishness. Since the beginning of Day 3 you haven't necessarily done anything super pro-town(I haven't actually checked though, so correct me if I'm wrong).
Frankly I don't even particularly suspect you as mole right now, but I know it's a possibility and as such should be thought about.
Also, I've gone through Ace's posts, and here's a brief synopsis of the important bits regarding players still alive (In chronological order):
*Attacks Radfield and Incog repeatedly Day 1/2
*Counter attacks Dreamflower(Meapak) after she calls out Ace
efends Chaoser, likens it to the attack on Barundar
efends Foolishness
efends Chaoser a second time
efends Chaoser a third time and instead pushes for KillerSOS as Day 2 lynch
*Questions GM's listcheck validity and asks why he is still alive.
*Pushes for Caller to Role Claim(which he never does)
*Spends 4 or 5 posts pushing me as suspicious for not dying
*Claims he has proof that Bum is scum
A couple interesting things. First, ace most definitely defended Chaoser when the pressure was getting put on him when we had OriginalName, Chaoser and KillerSOS all on the ropes. Second, I'm not sure how anyone could think I'm the mole(or mafia) after the amount of attacking Ace did at me this game. I'd guess at least two dozen posts by ace are either trying to discredit me, put suspicion on me, or downright calling for me to be lynched. Judge for yourselves, but once Incog dies he pushes very hard to lynch me.
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Radfield
Canada2720 Posts
Oh god, I didn't preview....
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Radfield
Canada2720 Posts
Great, we know we have a role cop out there somewhere since GMarshal was checked on the police radio. Unless someone counter-claims, Eiii is confirmed non-godfather and non-kp role which is important if Caller flips green or flips and doesn't have a killing role(NRA).
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EPT
