EPTI like your plan, but think it unlikely that you can marshal enough support to get everyone following along. In that case a contingency plan needs to be made.
Pick Your Power Insane! - Page 3
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Radfield
Canada2720 Posts
I like your plan, but think it unlikely that you can marshal enough support to get everyone following along. In that case a contingency plan needs to be made. | ||
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Radfield
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Radfield
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Radfield
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This comes early Day 1. Notice how bold and confident it is. Was he wrong? Yes. Honestly, his case is made off of very little information and many assumptions. But that didn't stop him. After his first accusation post he keeps pushing. Even after this, he keeps mentioning his thoughts. All throughout the day he points out scum. Not "gathering information", but real accusations. He accuses at least 5 people throughout day 1. Even when DH says he will consider lynching him, Kav remains aggressive, maintains his focus on DH, and dares DH to lynch him. That is aggressive, risky play. Now look at this game. Kavdragon suddenly retracts into his hole, is "afraid" of good players, and needs to poke for information. He doesn't follow a coherent train of thought, and his defense isn't anywhere near convincing either. He doesn't strongly accuse anyone of anything, and his defense shows that he cares a lot. Overall, strong case for red. I disagree with the Kavdragon lynch. I'll admit that I've been skim reading some of his later posts, but after a quick look through, I still don't get the scum vibe. I agree with some of your points Incog, but on the whole disagree with the conclusion. Mind you, I haven't read through his other games, so your opinion is a bit more learned than mine. Anyways, Kav has had some bold, unafraid posts in this game. He has been disagreeing with people with reckless abandon, and for at least the first half of the game, seemed very confident. Again, can't compare with his other games, but i'm really picking up the opposite vibe. Another possible reason to vote Barundar over Kavdragon, is that if he's mafia Barundar very likely took CPR Doc. He was 'assigned' this role, so would not look suspicious if he took it, and it's very difficult to discover if he uses it or not. | ||
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Radfield
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On May 18 2011 09:37 Incognito wrote: Please point out some of these "bold, unafraid posts". Disagreeing with people is normal, especially in a game such as this one where the lynch is fragmented. It also depends on what he is disagreeing on. I'm not sure I see these posts you are referring to though. Before you make a final call, I suggest you look back at some of his previous games, namely XXXVIII and XXXIV. They're totally different styles and it shows. And the point about Barundar likely being CPR doc is moot. There are plenty of good mafia roles. If we lynch one, we're likely to knock out something good. Funny enough I had some posts(the node fos and another one) that I was going to use as examples at the end of my post. Upon rereading I decided not to include them, as I felt they didn't really quite satisfy the requirement. Perhaps this is a sign you're right. Anyways, my hesitancy to lynch Kavdragon stems from 2 places: 1) In any other game I've played in, players who have posted like Kavdragon this game always flip Town. Nothing I've seen this game from Kav has triggered alarm bells for me, and to tell the truth has actually done the opposite(it doesn't feel like he's trying to be town). I realize you're basing your lynch push not necessarily off posts this game, but rather comparisons to other games. In this I'll have to trust you. If Kav lives another day, I promise I'll look through those games, but I don't have the pizazz to do it right now(i'm tired and ready for bed). 2) I can't shake the feeling that you are redirecting people away from my Barundar vote. I've been fooled by you before, and as such you have only yourself to blame. With that in mind, I feel it's best to go with my strong suspicion of Barundar(a suspicion you share). Are you willing to leave off on Kavdragon for Day 1(let ace shoot him if you want  ) to lend me a vote on Barundar? After all, it's what you're asking of me.The aforementioned quotes: + Show Spoiler + On May 14 2011 13:28 Kavdragon wrote: I picked [1.5][0.5]. Am i doing it right? ...or we can get down to business: Node. Cool story. What role did you get? Node's ideas are wrong, and wrong in a way that benefits mafia. Mafia wants to get the powerful roles, and the will try to get them. Anything beyond this is WIFOM. We can build a list of roles that the mafia will likely try to obtain, and have town go after those roles. If a townie and a mafia try to get the same role, town wins: The ratio of mafia to townies is 1/4, so if we send one townie to block a role that the mafia want, we only allocate 1/4 of the manpower that the mafia has to in order to try for the role, and they have no better chance of getting that power than the townie does. This is very similar to the reason that 1-1 trades work well. I'm not saying that we should not go for pro-town roles, but that we need to also go for anti town roles. We have a manpower advantage over the mafia, and we should utilize it. Compound this with the fact that node states his opinions very tentatively, and you've got yourself an FOS: node. On May 16 2011 08:25 Kavdragon wrote: So... I meant to post this a while ago, but ended up without a internet connection till now. As I see it there are two general ways that each side can go: You can deny the other team's power roles, or you can gain your team's power roles. Statistically it's a horrible idea for the mafia to try to deny us, rather than gain power roles. (Because of the limited number of players on their team) Even though the mafia has the advantage of being able to communicate and organize, I think that the town still has a huge advantage at this stage because of sheer manpower. We have three times the number of players, and I think that using that advantage is going to be key in getting the upper hand in this drafting phase. What I mean is this: We have enough players to both block the mafia from getting their most powerful roles, AND still pick up our most powerful roles. The only thing that we need to figure out is what order we need to take those roles. As mentioned earlier, the mafia can't afford to get any roles that are powerful for the town, unless they are also powerful for the mafia. Because of this, I think that any powers that are weak for the mafia should NOT be chosen early even if they are very powerful for the town. The top picks should be roles that are powerful for both sides, followed by roles that are very powerful in mafia hands (but not so much in town hands), followed by roles that are powerful for town (but not so much for mafia). People have said that we should just not pick mafia roles, and lynch anyone found with them. I disagree strongly, as it is that sort of passive play that will allow the mafia to get exactly what they need, and rofl stomp us. Those role will very likely be taken regardless, so I'd rather do something like Radfield is suggesting, and assign them to people, so that we know where those roles are. Sorry if it covers some things that have already been talked about. Radfield: Even if Flamewheel isn't willing to take thief, it would still work if we just shifted everything down a position, right? | ||
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Radfield
Canada2720 Posts
On May 18 2011 09:49 kitaman27 wrote: Why are you all assuming the Mafia 2 Detective is town? Think of the mess we will get into if a scum detective gets us running in circles after providing false numbers. This kind of information is a novelty at best. A good point, but once that player dies and his alignment flips, we would have our answer. As such, mafia can't kill him, and must let a dt live(assuming no janitor). It's a win-win really. Either way, lets discuss it no further and instead focus on the lynch, our actual priority. I have to go to bed, but I really hope people come around to vote Barundar. Bum, you need to pick up the torch here . If Kavdragon is lynched instead, so be it, it's not the end of the world, but I don't think it's our optimum play. | ||
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Radfield
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On the bright side, this lynch hopefully gives us oodles of information down the line, once incog and Barundars alignment flips. On another bright note, Incognito won't get targeted by mafia tonight, so in the event he is town he'll probably survive the night. Unless of course a townie shoots him, but if that's the case so be it. Mr. Wiggles, I very much disagree with your rolecheck list. There is a list of roles in this game that no townie should be caught dead with, so we want to use our rolechecks to try and ascertain alignment. Checking the people at the top of the list gives us very little information regarding their alignment. The top 6/7 all have an excellent excuse(whether legit or not) for taking an anti-town role. No one else on the list has that excuse. Anyone with a role check should be looking at whomever they think is scummy lower down on the list. If they have a scummy role(a role on the no-pick list) then they're probably mafia. I really hope someone does an alignment check on Barundar. Even setting aside my suspicions, he was assigned caller gf or cpr doc, so knowing his alignment is very important. Other players worth an alignment check: Flamewheel Infinitestory? Incognito Mr. Wiggles Chaoser dreamflower Players worth some medic protection: Radfield Bum Caller Ace - probably won't get picked off though foolishness - if town he likely has a defensive role anyways GMarshall - there are heaps of suspicion on him, so he is unlikely to get hit Scamp, as inventor, should get a skiff of medic protection Anyone else dying wouldn't be terrible at this point. I'd like to stress that flamewheel doesn't belong on any medic lists, or townie lists. He has done very little to contribute to the town this game. Besides, assuming he is telling the truth about JOAT, I'm pretty sure he can protect himself if he wants to. Inventor(Scamp) should be passing the vote-list checks either to whomever they have the strongest pro-town read on. Chaoser, despite finishing his interviews(his pre-tuesday excuse) still ended up contributing basically zero to the discussion. Simply popped in and voted Incog. Pick it up Chaoser. + Show Spoiler + Incog, you fooled me the first game I ever played. I was sure you were pro-town, but instead you dominated town, took control, and lead mafia to victory with about 5 members left over. Something flamewheel hosted... XXI maybe? + Show Spoiler + On May 18 2011 13:03 Kavdragon wrote: Also, since I won't be able to post this after my death: All newer players, please take note of the fact that Incog, Ace, and Caller all read me wrong. Vet's are not as good as anyone thinks, including themselves. The only thing you should be afraid of is their egos. | ||
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Radfield
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Now, that being said, the Barundar vote was the initial 2nd choice to voting for Incognito, so if by chance mafia were attempting to save Incog, then Barundar would have been the place to vote. However, if you're looking at votes to save Incog, it's the three that came down the stretch for Kav that did it. NO votes came down the stretch for Barundar(except for Foolishness, a valiant effort, but a failed one). Bumatlarge. Where were you(I don't mean this literally)? You vehemently defended Kavdragon early on, but completely disappeared for 6 hours, despite the heat growing considerably on him, only to pop in 1 minute after the day post to apologize. You never once pushed for Barundar, a player who was a viable alternative to Kav. On May 18 2011 14:25 bumatlarge wrote: Are you guys honestly trying to pin this as kav's fault? You guys are all awful, Im 100x better then all of you. Excuse me while I net us some scum. No need to be aggressive when you did so little to stop it from happening. In other news, I look forward to you netting us scum. | ||
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Radfield
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On May 18 2011 19:41 Scamp wrote: GMarshal, Node, and Flamewheel need to explain their last-second voting of KavDragon. Meh, townies do this all the time. Mafia very rarely do this. If Incog flips red at some point, then lets come back to this, but for now.... Also, if we assume that one of Barundar and Incognito is green and one red, then it would have made sense for mafia to stack the votes on the opposite player, since these were the leading candidates. Not to try to rally another player who was still 3 votes away. If both were green, then mafia players would never make a last minute push for Kav, another green player. A last minute push for Kav only makes sense in the context that both Incog and Barundar are red. This is possible, but unlikely given that Barundar was pushing for Incog (who looked like he was getting lynched). I guess from this I have to infer that Barundar is probably town. The problem is that at this point every time I read his posts my eyes mist over red, so I'm going to have to let other players be the judge of him moving forward. | ||
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Radfield
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On May 18 2011 20:08 Scamp wrote: But for now what? What's wrong with getting more information? Fair enough, there's nothing at all wrong with it. I'm just trying to head off any knee-jerk accusations. | ||
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Radfield
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On May 18 2011 20:10 Barundar wrote: I was looking forward to hearing from you when I flipped! In all seriousness I pretty much ignored your analysis as stupid and went to bed fed up. But if you have questions for me I'll try and answer as well as I can. I think it basically comes down to this: You're somewhat tentative in your posting, and tend to offer sensible, sometimes obvious, but always general advice. Your vote post on Incognito screamed mafia to me, because it's so very tentative and wishy washy. You kinda put reasons for voting Incog out there, but don't actively push them, and don't really try to convince anyone to you viewpoint. For me this rang alot of alarm bells. Also, since the lynch your posting is still making me think scum. In one post you throw minor suspicion on about 6 or 7 different people, but don't really make any strong statements any which way. Anyways, the data is pointing me in another direction, so I'm forced to conclude for the moment that my issue is with you posting style more than anything. Also, I've been wrong many times before on Day 1(and let it color my perception), so unless someone else really leads the charge, I doubt I'll push for you again. | ||
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Radfield
Canada2720 Posts
On May 19 2011 08:26 bumatlarge wrote: So if anyone has multiple KP and is unsure of who to hit, deconduo is an obvious choice Hold the phone. Decon claims to have taken bulletproof and missed. Bulletproof is almost useless for a mafia player, and there are wayyy more other pro-town roles that also benefit mafia hugely, while still looking pro-town. I don't see an anti-town player drafting for Bulletproof, hopefully we can mainly agree on that. It's possible, but would be a really bad play. There are 18 players below Decon, and I bet at least one of them went after Bulletproof. If someone else drafted it, then they will call him out. Assuming Decon is town, it also gives every player above him a modicum of protection from mafia tonight. As a general note on using a bunch of KP night 1. This is a terrible idea. Mostly for the obvious reason that the amount of info we have will skyrocket after our first mafia kill, and as the game goes on. But also, there are multiple roles in this game which allow players to avoid lynches, in the event this happens, town really needs some KP to deal with it. | ||
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Radfield
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Also, there should be more discussion about the inventor. We shouldn't give free reign to the power roles to do whatever they feel like. So far the two most popular suggestions have been bulletproof vests and vote checking kits. If a vote checking kit was to be created, town should inform which group to use it on so we don't have overlap. Like I said before, no ambiguous names should be tolerated. If we see a "potato" in the night post rather than "A bomb that only blows up when given to mafia", then the inventor should be strongly considered as a lynch candidate. Agreed. Inventor(Scamp) needs to create one or the other in my mind. Obviously if he's mafia he will just give it to his buddy. Given that, a vote-checker is much more useless to mafia than a Bulletproof vest. So, lets see a vote-checking kit tonight. | ||
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Radfield
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On May 19 2011 09:00 Mr. Wiggles wrote: I still think a bomb that must be passed every 12 hours and explodes when held by mafia but not by town is a good thing. :p That'll find mafia for sure, and kill them too. Also, "Vote-checking Kit" is still ambiguous. For all we know, it will check vote-lists and tell mafia how many people with roles voted to help them snipe. I say we put in a policy where the person who received the inventor item must claim that they did so, so we can keep them accountable. That way, if they feed us false information, we can do something about it. That's still a moderately useless item for mafia to have. Remember, it's only a one use item(I assume). Also, what would you name your bomb that could be unambiguous. Assuming Ver would allow an item like that, obviously it would be great. | ||
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Radfield
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Here's some interesting tidbits: Everytime I read the name Chaoser, I pronounce it Chowsah in my head... Instead of seeing Infinitestory, I read Infestory. Like a pantry, but infested. | ||
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Radfield
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Just sleeping like every night.It should have been apparant from the way I was posting in thread that I didn't take VR, but given how much your pushing, I'll assume you actually did check me last night. Here's the thing, if you know my role, which I assume you do, you shouldn't even need to question me. You should be saying " ahhhh, I see, I understand certain things now". You get what I'm saying? Yes, I didn't take vote-rigger, and that was a risk if mafia went for it below me(and then rigged the votes; obviously I would get held accountable). hmm, originally I was going to say more here Ace(and Fishball), but have edited most of it out. Lets be smart. On May 19 2011 13:56 Mr. Wiggles wrote: And guys, I'd just like to let you all know I'm king today too. :p Ver, does the politician have to post in the thread with their ##nuke or ##lynch target? I've been assuming this is the case, but now i'm not so sure. I think this guarantees us a politician. A kingmaker on it's own it at worst a nuisance for town, at best a useful double lynch. Combined with a politician it is massively nasty. There is no way mafia would take Kingmaker without a politician, and no way a townie kingmaker would make Mr. Wiggles the king. Do people disagree with this hypothesis? Mr. Wiggles, I'd like for you to cast your vote right now for KillerSOS. If you do not, I think we will almost certainly lose a pro-town player to the politician. From my understanding, the king lynch operates like a dayvig, so if you use your power now, it's gone and there is nothing for the politician to use. If people want to call me scummy on this, that's fine, but it's the smart play. | ||
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Radfield
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Originalname, it would be nice to see you pick up the pace. From a brief look, your town play was fairly solid in XXVII, at least enough to draw a hit night 2. It would be nice to see you contribute to the discussion in this game as well. | ||
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Radfield
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Wiggles needs to lynch Chezinu. Not KillerSOS as I previously mentioned. Also not 'someone he thinks is scummy'. Chezinu is outrageously hard to read, and has basically no posts to analyse. It's a trait that gets you into trouble when something like this happens. + Show Spoiler + I really like playing with you Chez, and you make me laugh. No hard feelings The rest of those players could go either way right now, though I'm not convinced Incog is scum and flame is edging upwards. Other than that, I'm going to be looking at Callers past games tonight, and try to get a better feel for him. I will hopefully give Node some time as well. | ||
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Radfield
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Speaking of Ace, why the hell are you softballing suspicion on me over my role? If you know my role, you know EXACTLY why I didn't follow my own plan. Fishball, assuming you rolechecked me(which you are insinuating) can you back me up that a) you know exactly why I did what I did, and b) there is no reason to be suspicious of me not taking VR. If you keep this up Ace, I'm probably gonna have to make an all-caps angry role claim.... Wiggles, where did you go. Lynch node if you pop in in the next hour, but i'm going to go over Caller right now, and may or may not make a case. I originally had him as town, but I seem to recall him playing fairly semi-lurker when he's mafia, and he's been quite quiet this game. Nothing sure yet though.... | ||
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Radfield
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Ver can you give us a run down of how the kingmaker/ politician roles work in conjunction. Does the politician have to post in thread to use the power? Does the politician lynch show up at the end of the day or immediately? Will Wiggles be informed if he loses his lynch? etc. | ||
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