TL Mafia XXXIX - Page 88

On May 09 2011 04:38 Eternalmisfit wrote:




Again, Chaoser conveniently drops Sandroba off the list even though Amber and Sandroba have equal votes at this point (of which chaos13's vote seems as bandwagon-ish as it can be).

Having said that, despite my misgivings with Chaoser and Sandroba, I do agree that the vote is way too fragmented and with 10 people yet to vote, mafia can easily make last minute votes to influence the lynch. I would agree with focusing on these three in my opinion.

On May 09 2011 05:48 Eternalmisfit wrote:


Let me recap the events of last night. You started off with a FoS on Amber which was followed by Sandroba's rather quick jump from redtooth onto Amber. At the point where I first pointed Sandroba seemed suspicious, a bandwagon seemed to be forming against Amber. Several others started stating Amber seemed a little scummy without backing it up with any analysis.

If I had not raised my suspicions on Sandroba, a similar bandwagon to the one on Kurumi would have formed on Amber. Even if Amber flipped green/blue after a lynch, it would be hard to pinpoint any scum strongly since a large number of townies would have been mixed in with the scum (like what happened with Kurumi). At this point, even if the lynch of Amber goes ahead and he flips town, it will be quite clear who all are suspicious.

As to why Mafia would want Amber dead, I (and also several others in this thread) have got a potential blue read from Amber. Getting a blue lynched would be a big victory for scum at this point since town already lost 2 blues on Night1.

As for my case against Sandroba, I have stated it before and do not see the necessity of restating it again.

On May 11 2011 08:42 Eternalmisfit wrote:


Firstly, regarding your other post, I stated clearly that I would prefer to keep my vote on Sandroba as I was convinced that he was scum more than you. However, a few people stated towards the end of the day that I should take a stand between the two of you and thus I voted for you.

If I was scum and knew Amber was scum, why wouldn't I have voted for Cthsazsa long before that point in order to increase the lead between Amber and Cthsazsa instead of focusing on Sandroba (it was clear that he was not going to be voted at some time before that).

As for ilovejonn's accusations and anlaysis.
Point 1: Non-important as it was just A FoS
Point 2: I cant even count how many PbP analysis had been on Day1. Interesting you pick apart each of my posts the same way I did for Kurumi and then claim I am scum for that.
Point 3: The strategy of voting a person likely to be mod-killed was something I proposed in Surpirsingly normal mini mafia in case the town didnt reach a consensus well and it worked out decently there. It is the same logic I applied there.
Point 4: I voted for Kurumi since he posts seem to focus on derailing town discussion and not because his posts were bad in grammer/hard to follow. Also, there was no content in his spam posting
Point 5: I was of the opinion Irish is a reasonable lynch target as well. If you see the post I was referring to, redtooth made a specific argument for Irish and thus, I was replying in context of Irish. I still believed Kurumi was a better lynch target at that point.
Point 6: I posted later that I got busy at work and thus will be unable to make the post. It is interesting that someone who claims about lower activity due to real life stuff use the same argument to paint someone else as scum.
Point 7: Spreadsheet - If making a spreadsheet showing who voted/FoS/defended whom makes me scummy, I don't know what to respond that with.


Also, at this point, I would recommend that if someone is putting a vote on someone (be it me or someone else), please make a case or argument as to why you are voting for that person. Despite me being wrong or right, I have always posted as to why I voted for someone unlike a lot of people who either made bandwagon votes or voted w/o posting any explanation at all.

In any case, quite a few people are missing from thread completely today and I would like to hear their opinion/take on the discussion. Them being: VarpuliS, Kenpachi, jaminz, Conversion, and sinani.

On May 12 2011 08:22 Eternalmisfit wrote:


Interesting that you say so since I posted my reasons here.
First analysis

Then, I also clarified when you raised a question here and here:
1
2

Also, you read those posts very well since you questioned me on the initial analysis (to which I replied) and said I was building a case against sinani206 here:
Forumite's post

Whether you agree with my analysis or not, I believe I have posted my suspicions more coherently than Sinani's agruments against me.

I also find it suspicious that you choose to ignore what you clearly read and commented on and summarized my vote as


I am not 100% convinced that he's mafia but among the people I suspect, he is the most likely one.

I am going to my reads on different players as well since it is quite likely I will end up getting lynched. Also, I won't be on again till much later.

Town reads
Sandroba - for obvious reasons at this point.

Kenpachi - for obvious reasons at this point.

DropBear - Townie claim, general posting, and tying himself so closely with myself. At this point, if I flipped red, he is nearly #1 target for next lynch.


scum reads
Sinani - voting patterns suggest that he is either disinterested townie or scum. It is unlikely that he is disinterested townie based on my above analysis but it is not a 100% read.

Ilovejonn - If you leave aside the fact that he raised suspicion on me (which is why he is not being considered at the moment), he has shown rather scummy behavior i.e. suggesting he always gets town, claimed blue read on Amber (would suggest asking him why he thought so), weak FoS on me on Day2 start, trying to gain town cred based on a dead man's read.

Conversion and Elmizzit - Textbook examples of posting w/o contributing. They also seem to be good at making themselves not noticeable. In fact, I don't recall anyone having analyzed their posting.

Suspicious reads - not necessarily scummy
jaminz - Missing from thread in general. Vote 1 was inexplicable since he knew Killer was Blue but still voted for him. Vote 2 was accompanied by contradictory reasons. He votes for Amber early so that is why I don't get a clear scum read but that might have been an attempt to bus Amber.

redtooth - sudden decline in activity. Lot of people have been wrong in their votes (hell, I am a perfect example for it) but very few have shown such a sudden decline in activity.

orgolove - He never explained why he switched his vote from Redtooth->Chaoser->Kurumi on Day1. His Day2 vote was on Amber which I why I am hesistant on this as a scum read.


Null Reads
Kitaman
VarpuliS
Impervious - mostly due to lack of sufficient posts to analyze
Mig

I am confused on my reads about Forumite, AirBladeOrange, Cthsasza, and Chaos13 but it is mostly a combination of mixed signals and gut feelings so I am not posting them here.