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On May 09 2011 19:25 Node wrote:
Kevconsim was not modkilled because he requested a replacement with advance notice and had a damn good reason for not being around. For some reason I confused Beneather with Impervious and mixed them up on the player list. For the record, Impervious replaced kevconsim who replaced Rising_Phoenix.
I know kevconsim had a good reason, but his role could still be removed.
Got it, Impervious, took over right after the Day2 post, and posted two short posts.
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Yea, it was pretty late at night for me, so I didn't say much more than "hi". I don't have anything to add to the discussion yet, but I am keeping up with everything.
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On May 09 2011 20:05 Impervious wrote:
Yea, it was pretty late at night for me, so I didn't say much more than "hi". I don't have anything to add to the discussion yet, but I am keeping up with everything.
What is your opinion on the current players? Thoughts on the most popular scums?
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I agree with chaoser's list of sinani, ilovejohn, GGQ, and EternalMisfit as being likely scum. Not necessarily all of them (in fact, I actually doubt that they are all scum), but I had a bit of a suspicious reading from them, and with how the voting went, it definitely paints them in a bad light.
Two other people that chaoser didn't include was kitaman27 and redtooth. I'm less sure about redtooth, but I did explain my reasoning for having him under suspicion in my 2nd post in the thread. As for kitaman27, I had a suspicious reading of him before Amber[light] flipped.
I would expect that at least 1 of the mafia would actually have been voting for Amber[light] from the start, and stuck with it. Probably the RB or the GF. Why? Because it's so freaking hard to determine they are actually scum if that happens, and it's a great backup plan to try to ensure that your team wins. Generally, actions speak louder than words..... So I also think we shouldn't be expecting to find EVERY mafia within that list. Probably 2 or 3 of them though.
And from chaoser's analysis, I do believe that GGQ and sinani are the most likely, so either hit tonight or lynched tomorrow wouldn't be a bad move (unless some new info comes along).
If new info comes along, I wouldn't be expecting it from chaoser. The mafia have 2kp and probably a roleblocker (it's possible GGQ is scum and lying and there is no roleblocker), so if he isn't dead tonight, he'll be roleblocked to infinity and beyond..... I don't think any decent scum would let him get another check off, especially if one of his potential targets are scum.
In other news, I'm also pretty certain that sandroba is town (at least he'd better be after what happened in Sleeper Cell -_-), and I'm also pretty certain that Cthsazsa is also town. It really does seem like the mafia were trying pretty hard to lynch him, which would save Amber[light]. I'm also pretty sure chaoser is legitimately a DT (that goes without saying). As for everyone else, I'm not too sure at the moment. Nobody is really standing out too strongly.
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On May 09 2011 14:08 chaos13 wrote:
I would like to propose a ridiculous theory, please tell me if it's possible and/or complete garbage.
chaoser is scum. He knows the roles of his scumbuddies, and decides to announce DT and that he checked Amber last night, seeing that there was already a good number of votes for that player. Further, he gets his scum team to switch votes from Cthsazsa to Amber, and then declares that there must be a good number of scum hiding in the Cthsazsa votes. Even better, he is guaranteed that medics will waste themselves on protecting him every night, and he can claim roleblock and not be worried about not providing results for further days, and he can also rest comfortably knowing that if someone tries to accuse him of being scum, he can turn it on them and blame them for trying to accuse a DT.
At this point, it is extremely unlikely that Chaoser is scum. With Amber flip alone, there would still be a distant possibility that it was a rather high-level play by the scum. But, when you add the fact that Chaoser tunneled hard for a Irish lynch on day 1(who also flipped red), I would confidently place Chaoser as town.
I would also place Sandroba as likely town for similar reasons as Chaoser since he tunneled quite hard for an Amber lynch and was onto him before a lot of other people started voting for him. He also raised FoS on Irish on Day1 as well. It isn't as iron-clad as Chaoser's case but seems town to me.
At this point, I need to go back to the drawing board for my analysis since I am 0/3 (Kurumi, Amber, and Chaoser/Sandroba).
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I would like to add another player to chaoser's list to be considered. I clicked on a random page just to see where it would lead me, and the first few posts I see are defending Amber[Light]. There are two different styles of defense here, one far more avid than the other.
On May 09 2011 03:40 Varpulis wrote:
@chaoser I'm not 100% on Amber[LighT]. He's had some bad, pseudo-content posts, but he's also made some good ones that seem genuinely town friendly. I'll keep my eye on him, but I'm not convinced that he's scum. Perfect target for a dt check, I'd say.
This is a genuine defense of someone that he is unsure of. He even suggest a DT check. Not a scummy defense of another player.
On May 09 2011 04:04 Forumite wrote:Show nested quote +On May 09 2011 03:56 chaoser wrote:
@Forumite, if amber is blue, he's playing the worst blue ever. He's been consciously trying to fake contribute. Blues don't do that. Reread his attack on Sandroba, it was very weak. If he´s blue, then he can save himself by claiming, so fine, he´s a valid target for now. Show nested quote +On May 09 2011 04:00 sandroba wrote:
Another point on why Amber[Light] is scum:
He has posted a list of the "important" post of each player that died at night.
First of all this is a non-contribution, because it does not states the reason why those are important.
Second, If you are town How The Hell would you know which posts are really important? The post are presented on a non chronological fashion, and it only makes sense for you to post them in such manner, without stating reason, if you are scum trying to point town in the wrong direction. This is a very weak accusation. Picking out posts is not a scumtell, unless he actively choose posts which give a certain message, like pointing fingers against a certain player. Did you find something like that?
Forumite, on the other hand, is aggressively defending his scumbuddy. He does so without good analysis to back up his views, and even attempts to attack sandroba's efforts against Amber. Not only this, but he suggests a blue claim on Day 2. The only reason they should ever do this is if they have information that will lead to a scum lynch, like chaoser did.
To further this, look back at his posts on the previous page. There is a whole lot of nothing going on there, and most of it due to Forumite. He is making comments and asking questions that really don't further the game any farther, and consist of information that can easily be found within a few clicks.
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Ok people, I've been think about all the possibilities and I'd like to sugest the following, in case there are any DTs left:
Vig hit on GGQ or Eternal. DT check on cthsazsa. You might ask me why waste a check on cthsazsa? The game is pretty much in the bag for town otherwise. The only chance we can still lose this is if somehow this was planed move from the scum team and I don't like to leave things to chance.
There is a very slight possibility that cthsazsa was scum all along and the scum team would lose a member either way, so they fake claimed DT to build incredible town cred. That's pretty much the only way this game is not lost for scum.
It's going to be pretty easy to pin all the scum team on behaviour otherwise, and although I believe the chances of this being the case are pretty small, we can afford to right now.
If cthsazsa comes back town then we know for sure we are on the right track.
How do you feel about this chaoser?
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Not a bad idea. I'd support having the DT check him, just in case.
However, it would not guarantee that there was a fake claim. chaoser can be a legit DT and it's still possible that we targetted 2 scum at the same time.
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Yes, but if he comes back green it would straight out eliminate the possibility.
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That's why I definitely think it's a good move.
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got finals today, hopefully i can post before 11
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How can we be confident Chaoser can be DT checking people every night when he is the only confirmed(is) blue and mafia still has a role blocker. If Chaoser is town then I'm pretty sure mafia will just keep role blocking him. That's the main problem with claiming is that now we might lose most of the value of his role as long as the role blocker is alive.
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If another DT check's cthsazsa and get's town as result I'm 100% sure chaoser is DT. Otherwise there's a slight possibility there might be shenanigans going on.
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kitaman27
United States9245 Posts
I highly doubt this is a set-up with three detectives.
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Posting from work. I can't believe you claimed so late into the day chaoser. But I also understand that if you hadn't done so, you would've ended up with far less information. If I wasn't out the whole day I would've switched my vote onto Amber as well, but I guess what's done is done. Here I was hoping that Amber could really have been a blue and that a veteran player like him could have been of use to us with his "scum-hunting" abilities. I was wrong all along.
At least the modkill and lynch reduced mafia KP, which is awesome for us. I am also pretty sure chaoser is definitely DT as well based on his posts. I really don't think chaoser would have pushed 2 team mates for a lynch just to gain town cred. (It's possible, just highly unlikely)
I'll post more when I get off work or when night cycle ends.
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Yes, chaoser is most likely DT and there's little chance that any other scenario is possible. I agree with kita that it's more likely we have only 2 dts, that's why asking for a check from another DT that's not chaoser does not hurt.
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[spectral voice] *ahem* [/spectral voice]
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On May 10 2011 04:28 aidnai wrote:
[spectral voice] *ahem* [/spectral voice]
shut up foo' ghosts don't exist
+ Show Spoiler +I am joking(I didn't mean to be aggressive by any means)
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On May 10 2011 04:39 Kurumi wrote:shut up foo' ghosts don't exist + Show Spoiler +I am joking(I didn't mean to be aggressive by any means)
Ah! A Ghost!
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Chaoser's list seems solid, assuming it is- Sinani
- GGQ
- Eternal
- TBD (don't have a strong read on a 4th, possibly Forumite)
Cthsazsa is most likely noobtown, but I wouldn't mind a DT check on him later on (tonight I would focus on those on the list)
Oh yeah, and vigi's, don't go near redtooth. I know he lost the bet, but he's an asset at this point.
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EPT
