TL Mafia XXXIX - Page 34

On May 05 2011 23:07 Kurumi wrote:
Sandroba
The Hero of our game so far!
First,he votes on Rising_Phoenix
+ Show Spoiler +
Ok,fine. His reasoning?
+ Show Spoiler +
Really,just because Phoenix does not like the idea of guide posting does not mean he is scummy and wants an easy game,chill!
Also I like how he says about big amount of nonsense repeated,when there's nothing bolded or emphasized on.
I agree with Sandroba here. This is post IS suspicious. Rising_Phoenix contradicts himself twice in this post that I can see. His commentary on the smurf argument (sorry for raising that Node ) is bizarre to say the least.

SANDROBA TO CHAOSER,DO YOU HEAR ME?
+ Show Spoiler +
This is weird. Why would You engage a player,I understand Chaoser is a vet,when we have 2 townie and 2 scum coaches. What's the point? You just want to know what Chaoser thinks of Your posting? Are You a scum waving to scum in those old fashion big nose and huge eyebrows camouflage?
Sandroba already FoS'd chaoser here. He was probably looking for a reaction to help on his read.

After Chaoser responds
+ Show Spoiler +
He goes for counter attack on my Hero joke! Wait,but You just were scumhunting,Rising_Phoenix was suspicious! Was it Chaoser who pointed out that I am scummy and You should focus on me?
He probably felt for taunt,You know.
+ Show Spoiler +
OH COME ON!
You just went with accusation versus Phoenix because he explained how he felt about guides and day 1 lynches,then dropped it!
Is Your strategy to suggest everyone is scum unless someone actually believes You? Sounds solid,just like TheMango's SC2 builds.
I agree with you that this is odd. His case against Rising_Phoenix was dropped very quickly. However the Kurumi debate has been very prominent and he was probably distracted by it.
+ Show Spoiler +
Oh man,that feeling when I reeled my first fish together with Dad,so awesome. I WANTED someone to respond and start sniffing around it. Also,he goes with Chaoser's post about how my SC2 forum posting is different from Mafia one.
I also agree with this. Posting in this forum is bound to be different than in the rest of TL and should be ignored.
+ Show Spoiler +
Oh man,they're teaming up on me already!
This implies that you think chaoser is scum as well. You posted earlier "drop the discussion of chaoser as scum". I'm confused by this.

HEY YOU
+ Show Spoiler +
I want You to do an analysis for me! Yeah,because I am the boss here,the HERO You know.
Start doing something Yourself before making someone help You.
This doesn't mean anything. He's trying to get orgolove to post. Orgolove has been quiet, it's a reasonable thing to ask.
+ Show Spoiler +
COME ON DROP MY POSTING FROM SC2 GENERAL!
Is this really the only clue You have against me,oh wait the clue isn't Yours!
It is Chaoser's!
Where is Your real contribution? You are like kid running around on the playground and accusing others of taking Your toy because they did not want to play with You.
You have been posting pretty wierdly man. I haven't seen anyone post like you before. He probably interprets it as scum because it's strange.

Conclusion:
Sandroba tries to make look himself pro-town by jumping on my weird posting and teaming up with weird Chaoser's SC2 general posts thing,does not write anything good though. Besides his fast abandoned attack on Phoenix,rest of his posts were repeating how anti-town I am and what others think of him fighting with the bad guys!

On May 06 2011 02:36 Eternalmisfit wrote:
People defending others


People accusing/FoS/Voting others


How to read this chart
Every player has a number against him.
Green number on the column of a player means defense or town call for player # by this player
Red number on the column means accusation or mafia call for player # by this player
Bold and deep color represents multiple occasions of the said event i.e. strong support/attack
This chart is applicable till Takuna's first post on page 33 (not including it)

The purpose behind this is to analyze potential relationships between different people which will come into play after we people flip after lynches/deaths.

I will post a more detailed analysis with my thoughts based on this within 30-60 mins.

On May 06 2011 02:55 Forumite wrote:

Very interesting numbers, thanks for gathering them.
If you accept advice, you may have a bit low threshold on defending, but I might be wrong, defending and picking apart a weak argument are not the same thing.

May I suggest an inverted table on the second one, where you show who each player have been accused of being scum by?

On May 05 2011 12:47 GGQ wrote:
Kurumi's style of willfully posting nonsense reminds me of only one other player I've ever seen; serejai from last game. I shot serejai and he flipped mafia. I suggest lynching Kurumi.

On May 05 2011 21:42 redtooth wrote:...

---

@aidnai - Then why is it that people are literally tripping over themselves to keep credit and align themselves with Chaoser? As for Irish, he obviously didn't go inactive as part of a combined scum strategy to get the heat off of him since there are no PMs. If you think Irish actually is noobscum and exposed himself to all those real tells, don't you think he would have done the noobscum followup and aggressively defend himself? (See: KillerSOS)

Let's do a math exercise. Consider, as objectively as possible, the following and write down the percent chance you think of each event happening.

• Whether Irish went inactive as strategicscum or he went inactive as boredtownie.
  
• Whether Irish did a genuine chainsaw defense or that he simply jumped at what he believed to be a scumtell regardless of the merit in his analysis.
  
• Whether Irish is actually noobtown with all his tells being explained by that fact or that he is actually noobscum (and somehow strategicscum at the same time) giving away a ridiculously abundant amount of information without being more guarded.

Analyze your numbers and if it still seems like there is over "70%" of him being scum then your math has been flawed.


On the other hand, do the same for Chaoser.

• Whether he has been actively promoting quality lynches or he has been promoting the easy-to-accuse-while-not-looking-bad lynches/FoS.
  
• Whether the fact that he has a pro-town reputation is due to his being town or his being a good player who traditionally looks pro-town.
  
• Whether he is a hard-working townie bent on finding scum or he is hard-working scum bent on distracting town.

This may not come out to 70% as well but it is just as likely (IMO way more likely) as Irish being actual scum. Also, RVS/RQS = Random Voting Stage and Random Question Stage. Next time refer to this.

This made me late for work zzz.

Whether Irish is actually noobtown with all his tells being explained by that fact or that he is actually noobscum (and somehow strategicscum at the same time) giving away a ridiculously abundant amount of information without being more guarded.

On May 04 2011 23:29 Rising_Phoenix wrote:
Sorry I can't post while I'm asleep >.< Hi buddy!

Also what's with all these vets posting huge guides of how to play the game? It's not like we can't read the guides already on this and other sites with useful information. We do need a leader to help lead conversation and we need to be certain that the person isn't mafia.

I'm against a "day 1 inactive lynch" Unless we REALLY need to do it. Usually inactives are just disinterested townies, and if we go around lynching random people chances are we'll just hit a townie (simple math says 20% chance of mafia)

I also don't see a point in talking about our previous games experience. Really it seems like an easy way to clutter a thread. If you want to see their previous games, go into their post history unless they have a smurf. It seems like we know the people with smurfs so does it really matter? And also isn't it illegal to have two accounts on the site?

I feel huge day1 "newbies guides" are kinda useless and suspicious. While we definitely need direction, guides IN THREAD about how to play the game ore mostly filler. Most of what people said have been said are in guides both on this and other sites. I'm not saying it's suspicious but I am saying it's unnecessary and in general a pretty useless post.

On April 24 2011 04:50 Rising_Phoenix wrote:
##Unvote

Sorry I was at a horn concert and doing some other stuff as well.

First, looking at this mathematically there are 11 players, 3 of which are mafia. If you randomly choose a person there is a approx. 27% chance of getting it right. However, choosing randomly is a bad idea since you never know if you're lynching an important member (cop or medic).

The cop should look up a random member that isn't himself(obviously). That means there is a 3 in 10 chance of him being right (30%). If he is right, he should be able to hint to everyone else who is mafia. That leaves everyone else voting on another person. If you know who the cop/detective is, that leaves a 3 in 9 chance (33%) of being right. That's from 1/5 to 1/3 probability of being right. I don't know how well this works for day one but numbers are fun =].

----- Break for other half---
Leadership for townies is essential, and right now it looks like Conversion and Freestalker are the two most active in leading conversation and topics. Unless one of them slips up, I'd refrain from killing either of them for now.

Silent members have three possibilities:

1)They're trying to hide
2)They're lazy or disinterested in the game
3)It's a holiday and they're traveling

Going through we have these people being pretty inactive:

-jaminz: a few filler posts, nothing as contribution to the thread, pointing fingers
-aScle: one post?
-Enervate: very little posting as well

These players have said very little or immediately start pointing fingers (Enervate) when they start pointing. However, it doesn't make sense to choose him because he hasn't bothered defending any accusations or contributing anything to support his claim.

aScle and Jaminz have had very little to contribute. Their posts have little to no content and have not been active in general. Also, Jaminz has been very ready to point fingers but has little supporting evidence. I'll vote for him since he's just detracting from town synergy.

So, unless he can defend himself:
##vote Jaminz