EPTSurprisingly Normal Mini Mafia I
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Varpulis
United States2517 Posts
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Varpulis
United States2517 Posts
Hope that won't be a problem... | ||
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Varpulis
United States2517 Posts
On April 12 2011 06:44 GMarshal wrote: I doubt this will be full before Friday, and at the earliest it would start on thursday, it would mean you start 24 hours late, but that should be ok... Great! on vacation the next week, so activity shouldn't be a problem for me. | ||
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Varpulis
United States2517 Posts
On April 12 2011 10:29 ShoCkeyy wrote: What ever happen to having a Mayor?! From what I understand, wouldn't a mayor be really overpowered in a 9 person game. just doing the math: If a mafia gets voted mayor, mafia will have 4 lynch votes. once a single townie is dead, it becomes impossible for the mafia to loose, because they can force lynches with majority (ties are decided by who gets the votes first, which the mafia could arrange easily). Maybe if mayor gets less votes? | ||
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Varpulis
United States2517 Posts
I am allowed to edit before the game starts, right? | ||
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Varpulis
United States2517 Posts
On April 12 2011 15:10 Qatol wrote: Yeah of course. But you might want to get out of the habit in this forum. thx. Used to normal tl, where doubleposting gets me a warning at best if it wasn't an accident. I've been reading through mafia XXXVII though, and it has become evident that this section was abandoned by mods long ago. Onwards with the doubleposts! | ||
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Varpulis
United States2517 Posts
On April 12 2011 15:40 Qatol wrote: Well don't get too carried away. The mods don't visit this section very often on their own, but they will if we ask them to. And the multiposting instead of editing rule that we use here was actually introduced by a mod, so even when they do visit, they multipost too. Regardless, the major habit you will have to shake is that urge to fix your typos. Do not edit your posts. Just use EBWOP: "whatever you meant to say" instead. (EBWOP = edit by way of posting) I'll make sure to remember that. I assume nobody asked them to check out the Pregame of TL Mafia XXXVIIpregame of TL Mafia XXXVII then? Mods would have heart attacks at the sight of some of those posts! | ||
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Varpulis
United States2517 Posts
On April 12 2011 16:01 Qatol wrote: The spam at the beginning of that thread is pretty harmless, though I guess it might look bad if the mods look at posting histories out of context. I was thinking just that. So many posts on the Automated ban forum read: "this was going to be a warning, but then I looked at your shitty posting history..." I'm training myself to preview every post so that I can proofread. | ||
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Varpulis
United States2517 Posts
gl hf to all the other players. | ||
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Varpulis
United States2517 Posts
a) Lynch an inactive player because he might be lurking scum/ because he won't be helpful later on. b) Wait to see how things play out. I think we should pressure lurkers, but put the votes towards suspicious characters once we get the lurkers talking. | ||
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Varpulis
United States2517 Posts
On April 16 2011 03:59 Zorkmid wrote: I'm all up for scumhunting, and will defend myself at any point that I think it's necessary. Let's hear from the lurkers! VarpuliS Senj Vain Penny for your thoughts? I'm interested in the little argument you and Forumite are having. I'm not sure if you're right and he's suspicious or if you're suspicious because of your accusation. I don't like the idea of lynching active players without a good reason, though, and neither of those reasons are good enough for a lynch. Also, there's practically no way that you've found both the mafia within 24 hours of the beginning of the first day. | ||
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Varpulis
United States2517 Posts
On April 16 2011 05:52 Forumite wrote: There has been some accusations of scummy behavior allready, actually everyone has except the lurkers (Varp, Senj, Vain) and Shcoleosis have pointed out someone that they think are scummy. There are 4 different people who have been pointed out as scummy by at least two people, at least if my data is correct. would you care to share your data with the rest of us? | ||
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Varpulis
United States2517 Posts
On April 15 2011 23:19 sandroba wrote: That makes no kind of sense whatsoever. How is me saying losing townies is a bad thing makes me scum? I'm obviously town. The idea of lynching inactives is really just to make sure everyone post enough so we can get a read on them. Also attacking the one doing analisys on you is not good town play. That's called OMGUS from what I've read. If you really are town then you should either defend yourself or make a case of someone you think is scum (a decent one, not the nonsencical one you've posted) so you can actually help town. I also have no connection with forumite and I fail to see how you could possibly have drawn this conclusion. And to say it doesn't matter if he posted that before or after he got PM'ed is just LOL. You are looking more and more like scum to me. This is a scummy post. He gets defensive and says two scummy lines, which I bolded. Not sure if it's just defensive posting because Zorkmid called him scum or an actual scumtell, but it's suspicious. I highly doubt that Forumite is scum though, so I might just be overanalysing. Zorkmid's schtick about Forumite being scummy because he' busy over the weekend is bullshit though. | ||
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Varpulis
United States2517 Posts
On April 16 2011 06:23 Forumite wrote: And because I like tripple-posting; Yes, and you are welcome. Thank you very much. Am I still a lurker? | ||
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Varpulis
United States2517 Posts
I just looked though the thread, and pretty much 100% of Eternalmisfit's posts have been pushing for an inactive lynch day 1. He'd like to get everybody talking, but has yet to contribute in a meaningful way. If we're gonna lynch a lurker, it should either be him or Senj, who has been lurking since the beginning of the game, save a few posts about inactives. | ||
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Varpulis
United States2517 Posts
On April 16 2011 07:28 Eternalmisfit wrote: I pushed for inactive lynch as I don't see in-actives contributing to discussion in any form or sense. As far as meaningful discussion is concerned, there has been very little analysis by anyone on this thread apart from arbitrary finger pointing. As far as my suspicions are concerned, I am quite suspicious of Shcoleosis being scum. + Show Spoiler + Most of the people in the town are in 2 camps: lynching lurkers or not lynching lurkers. And for the most, the people have strong opinions on the matter. Shcoleosis initially was quite against the idea at the start of the discussion. However, as my suggestion gained some support (as most of the people opposed to it posted later), she quickly jumped sides and was semi-pro for lynching inactives. I think she is changing her opinion and trying a bit too hard to fit in which seems like scummy behavior. She has also been inactive since those posts. FoS Shcoleosis Fair enough about the lurking. I'll look into the Shcoleosis matter. Expect a post about it in a couple of minutes. | ||
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Varpulis
United States2517 Posts
First post is a response to Eternalmisfit's suggestion to pressure lurkers On April 15 2011 11:17 Shcoleosis wrote: Yeah, that seem logical. We don't want to kill innocent townies, though...It's the mafia we want gone! I highly doubt any mafia would be lurking or inactive when they have chances to kill. But who am I to say...I'm still learning :/ This bolded line is not scummy, it's just stupid. Mafia doesn't kill by talking, they kill by pm'ing GMarshal at night. Mafia needs to avoid drawing attention to itself to prevent themselves from getting lynched. This post in general is pretty worthless, ending with a line that is... strange. But who am I to say...I'm still learning :/ This is the first scumtell I can see. She basically says "don't listen to me, i'm new." Townies need to talk and be listened to, not ignored because this is their first game. Only mafia and blues benefit from being ignored, so unless he roleclaims, lets assume scum. Second post comes a little bit later. the post reads: On April 15 2011 11:41 Shcoleosis wrote: I'm sure getting rid of the inactive would make the lynching process easier, but I can't help but question the idea of getting rid of people unnecessarily. I'm thinking about it more, and I'm realizing that there's a chance the one we lynch is scum and there's also a chance that he or she might not be scum....no way to tell right now. Hopefully we'll get lucky. This is a post which blends in. It says practically nothing, but appears to be a contribution. Blending in is not something a townie needs to do. +1 scum level. Finally, we've got lucky number 3: On April 15 2011 13:01 Shcoleosis wrote: Not trying to protect the inactive. I guess I just didn't really understand your logic well. But, hey, if it takes lynching the inactive to get rid of the scum, LET'S DO THIS! Lol Here, Shcoleosis basically says: "you seem to disagree with me... fine, you're right!" Agreeing with everybody else is something that two kinds of players do: -unhelpful townies -because they're just being sheep -mafia -because they're trying to blend in I don't want either in my town come lategame. Based off of this analysis, I'd like to start putting some pressure on Shcoleosis. Until a better target surfaces or she comes up with some good posts later on, I'll put my vote on her. ## Vote Shcoleosis | ||
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Varpulis
United States2517 Posts
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Varpulis
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Shcoleosis, sheeping is not a great way to play town, if you are indeed town. Even if you're not scum, you're not helping us find them. Who do you think would be a better target for a lynch? there are no inactives left, and you are the most suspicious of the lurkers so far. I'd love to hear your opinion. If you can convince me that somebody else is more scummy than you, then I'll change my vote, until then, I'm fine with leaving you over the fire. | ||
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Varpulis
United States2517 Posts
I love the hypocrisy here. a few short posts ago, you defended your changing opinion with I was looking at things from a different point of view in order to help all of us find out who is mafia scum. Then, after I thought about it, I changed my mind a little because I started to see the point. Since I am new to this game, I am trying my best to give my point of view Then, when Zorkmid comes through and accuses you based off of what he sees, then changes his suspicions based off of new evidence (twice), you say that he's scum because he changes his mind a little. I've noticed something else about you. You're fickle in your accusations. One minute you're accusing someone of this, and the next you're accusing someone of that... Misfit, Sandroba, Shcoleosis....who is next, Zorkmid?... To me, that screams nothing but scum....a scum desperately trying to fit in. So, you change your mind, and you're not scum. He does the same, yet he is scum? "great" logic... Despite this, Zorkmid still seems pretty suspicious. Not sure whether or not this is just two townies arguing or if one of you is actually scum. For now, I'll back down. To reiterate, I'm trying to force activity, not bandwagon the first guy who seems suspicious. ## Unvote Shcoleosis | ||
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Varpulis
United States2517 Posts
On April 16 2011 10:52 Shcoleosis wrote: I'm only calling it like I see it. I changed my mind about how I believed the lynching should go, not about who I particularly thought was mafia scum. hmmm... interesting. Doesn't change the fact that it's hypocrisy, but I digress. I'm going to go to sleep, hopefully the thread doesn't explode while I'm sleeping  | ||
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Varpulis
United States2517 Posts
On April 16 2011 10:59 Eternalmisfit wrote: Btw, just so that people don't fly under the radar, senj and elmizzit haven't posted anything of substance yet in this thread. People need to see this. I just checked, and he's right: neither of these two have posted anything useful. I don't want to lynch a potentially active townie in Zorkmid/Shcoleosis if we've still got lurkers to deal with. g'night all! | ||
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Varpulis
United States2517 Posts
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Varpulis
United States2517 Posts
My vote goes to Elmizzt, because not only has he not contributed anything meaningful, he also pretended to contribute by parroting one of Zorkmid's bullshit analyses about how sandroba and forumite are both mafia because forumite was afk and sandroba defended him. I urge the people currently voting for active players to switch their votes to the lurkers, so that at least we can pressure them into activity. ##Vote: Elmizzt | ||
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Varpulis
United States2517 Posts
+ Show Spoiler [post 1] + On April 15 2011 11:18 Senj wrote: GL HF broskis. Not sure I agree Eternalmisfit, seeing as we're all relatively new to the mafia game. This is in response to Eternalmisfit's suggestion that we lynch an inactive. He says, in effect, we're all new, so lynching inactives is bad. Not only does this make no sense, but it nicely defends any scum that are just lurking. Either bad townie play or scum. + Show Spoiler [post 2] + On April 15 2011 12:41 Senj wrote: Yeah, basically. I guess that's kind of the idea of keeping the thread active though, more posts mean more chances to slip up and divulge too much information. Somewhat unrelated, but I just broke a 9 game lose streak. :D huuuuuge relief there. Now comes a 180, wherein he agrees with the majority who are in favor of an inactive lynch and then gives a valid reason why. This would be good town play, except that since then, he has made a grand total of 1 post. Seems a bit suspicious. + Show Spoiler [post 3] + On April 15 2011 12:54 Senj wrote: This is a low content post. Here, he's noting the players who have yet to speak, (two of whom posted before the game began that they would be inactive early on due to IRL reasons) All that this post says is, "they haven't contributed yet, if they don't contribute soon, I'll be suspicious." This is saying something without actually saying something. It's a false contribution, and it indicates scum to me.I'm already taking note that we have yet to see Forumite, Vain and Varpulis, however; I feel it's a little early yet. By the halfway mark on the first day I'll be suspicious if we haven't heard from them yet. ##Unvote: Elmizzt ##Vote: Senj | ||
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Varpulis
United States2517 Posts
scenario 1: Senj/Elmizzt comes back, votes Shcoleosis, Shcoleosis gets lynched. BAD scenario 2: Shcoleosis gets back first, votes Zorkmid, and Zorkmid gets lynched. BAD scenario 3: With your vote on Senj, Zorkmid and Shcoleosis both need 2 more votes against them to be lynched, which is unlikely unless the mafia bandwagons, which will give us information about who the mafia is. GOOD | ||
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Varpulis
United States2517 Posts
On April 17 2011 00:46 VarpuliS wrote: Eternalmisfit: I suggest changing your vote to Senj. This will prevent Shcoleosis and Zorkmid from being lynched, and put some real pressure on the lurker. scenario 1: Senj/Elmizzt comes back, votes Shcoleosis, Shcoleosis gets lynched. BAD scenario 2: Shcoleosis gets back first, votes Zorkmid, and Zorkmid gets lynched. BAD scenario 3: With your vote on Senj, Zorkmid and Shcoleosis both need 2 more votes against them to be lynched, which is unlikely unless the mafia bandwagons, which will give us information about who the mafia is. GOOD EBWOP: It seems that Zorkmid is not in danger after all, after a ninja edit by Chaoser. I'd still like another vote on Senj though, to prevent a lynch on Sholeosis, who's as likely to be town as not, and is at least contributing. | ||
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Varpulis
United States2517 Posts
@mods: If the person with the most votes gets modkilled, do they still get lynched or does the person with the second highest amount of votes get lynched? | ||
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Varpulis
United States2517 Posts
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Varpulis
United States2517 Posts
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Varpulis
United States2517 Posts
If you're not going to do it for us, do it for yourself, because you're lined up for a lynch and a modkill both at this point. About now I'm starting to think about what we'll do next. Expect a post within the next few hours about where things stand, suspects wise. | ||
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Varpulis
United States2517 Posts
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Varpulis
United States2517 Posts
Forumite + Show Spoiler + The only player suspicious of Forumite is Zorkmid, who noted his his post pre-game stating that he would not post much day 1 and saw it as a scumtell. On April 15 2011 23:03 Zorkmid wrote: This points to Forumrite. It doesn't matter that he posted this before he was even PM'ed.....if my assumption about sandroba holds true, than he has already revealed he AND Forumrite. How do you plead? Later on, Zorkmid realizes that this is ridiculous, and believes him to be a townie. Forumite I initially cast suspicion on this player because he seemed to be one of the inactives I perceived Shcoleosis to be protecting. Over time I have I grown to feel he is a townie, he has done what myself and Varpulis have done, pressuring lurkers and trying to get the posts flowing. I have also felt that he has made too many references that try identify who the lurkers are, to me it just came off as trying to lynch a certain inactive that he may is a townie. Eternalmisfit is unsure about Forumite's alignment, but has found a possible connection with Shcoleosis. Forumite One thing I am confident is that if Forumite is mafia, Shcoleosis is mafia as well since he was only one who jumped to her defense. If Forumite was mafia and Scholeosis was not mafia, than it is unlikely that he will protect a townie as it seems a easy town lynch in that case. This clue doesn't have a bearing now but if it late game, if either of them do turn out to be mafia, then I would be very suspicious of the other. Nevertheless, I cant find much scummy behavior from Forumite at this point. VarpuliS + Show Spoiler + Multiple people note me as a lurker early day 1, despite my pregame post explaining the absence. I'm going to ignore them, because I can. Sandroba did claim that a post I made was scummy, and I'll quote his post here to prove that I'm not just ignoring any criticism of myself. On April 16 2011 07:33 sandroba wrote: This is pretty contradictory. And you conviniently forgot about scholeosis who has 2 post of utter nothingness and scumtells. Senj really hasn't shown up much to give us his insight. Eternalmisfit seems to like me. Yay. VarpuliS He has been making reasonable posts and has been making good analysis so he seems like a townie to me. So does Zorkmid. VarpuliS He has been pressuring lurkers, as I have been. I feel like this is strong town play. Also, he has prodded other players to share their ideas. To me, he is doing as good a job as I am to get as many posts out there as possible for analysis, and this to me indicates strong town play. Elmizzt Note- Many players have been calling him Elmizzit. please stop, it makes my job harder. + Show Spoiler + Forumite suspects that Elmizzt is a lurking mafia working with Zorkmid in this post: On April 16 2011 22:11 Forumite wrote: II´ve been tunneling on the Zorkmid and elmizzt connection, both of them calling me scum for not posting during the start of the first day, when I was asleep and had informed people of this beforehand. I have the feeling that Zorkmid was the talkative Mafia, elmizzt the quiet one. Elmizzt hasn´t really said anything except agreeing with lynching inactives and agreeing with a weird post with weak arguments from Zorkmid. At one point, I notice that he's been lurking and put a vote on him. On April 17 2011 00:17 VarpuliS wrote: My vote goes to Elmizzt, because not only has he not contributed anything meaningful, he also pretended to contribute by parroting one of Zorkmid's bullshit analyses about how sandroba and forumite are both mafia because forumite was afk and sandroba defended him. ##Vote: Elmizzt As of now, he seems less scummy to me than a couple others, my vote was mainly to pressure him out of lurking. Eternalmisfit picked up on his lurking a while back, and posted the following in his general analysis post: Elmizzit He has been barely more active than Senj. So, he has been lurking a bit too. Same analysis as Senj. In his general analysis post, Zorkmid also expresses suspicion about Elmizzt Elmizzit (this guy has got me confused.) I'm a bit suspicious of this, he seems the only one to have outright agreed with my very first observation that Shcoleosis was scum, and therefore Forumite (inactive at that point) was too. Also, the post I quoted is his only post of substance. The rest were about trying to get inactives to talk (when he is very inactive himself). To me this could indicate either that he feels there isn't much to be said at this point, or that he doesn't want to slip up. To be fair, both Eternalmisfit and Zorkmid posted these analyses before Elmizzt made his post analyzing Sandroba, so he hasn't been lurking 100%, as these two posts would lead you to believe. Senj + Show Spoiler + Senj has been really inactive, and On April 16 2011 03:59 Zorkmid wrote: I'm all up for scumhunting, and will defend myself at any point that I think it's necessary. Let's hear from the lurkers! VarpuliS Senj Vain Penny for your thoughts? Forumite agrees with this in posts that i'm not going to quote here for the sake of keeping this post under a page long. So does Sandroba, it seems (he votes for him randomly in a post about Zorkmid and Shcoleosis) So do I. I vote for him. everybody else bandwagons in the following order: On April 17 2011 01:44 Shcoleosis wrote: ##Vote: Senj On April 17 2011 02:09 Zorkmid wrote: ##vote Senj On April 17 2011 08:05 Eternalmisfit wrote: ## Unvote ## Vote : Senj On April 17 2011 08:24 elmizzt wrote: I was hoping people would want to discuss a bit more, but it's getting close to that time! ## Vote : Senj For good measure, here are Eternalmisfit's and Zorkmid's analyses of Senj, respectively. On April 16 2011 21:36 Eternalmisfit wrote: Senj He has added nothing to discussion at this point and seems like a classic example of lurker. If I cannot find any strong candidates for being mafia by the end of the day, he will be my go-to vote to avoid killing an active townie. On April 17 2011 02:49 Zorkmid wrote: Senj He has added nothing to discussion at this point and seems like a classic example of lurker. If I cannot find any strong candidates for being mafia by the end of the day, he will be my go-to vote to avoid killing an active townie. (stolen from Misfit) Unless something changes, this is my vote for day 1 sandroba + Show Spoiler + Once again, Zorkmid is the first to point the FoS at sandroba. On April 15 2011 23:03 Zorkmid wrote: I'm suspicious that this means that sandroba is scum, and knows that that his scum buddy is going to be inactive. Elmizzt agrees with Zorkmid. On April 16 2011 02:34 elmizzt wrote: This seemed retarded at first, but the more I think about it, the more it makes sense.... It seems too convenient that forumite is afk at the start and that sandroba would make that statement. Plus, my gut tells me that the first person who breaks and makes an outright accusation is suspicious, and that was Sandroba as well. Forumite disagrees. A good while later on, Elmizzt posts an analysis of sandroba, calling him scum + Show Spoiler [Elmizzt's analysis] + On April 17 2011 03:37 elmizzt wrote: OK. Here are my thoughts for scum: I think Sandroba has some qualities that are pretty suspicious. In his posting, here are the aspects I find to be suspicious: First, he keeps referencing material that he has read outside of the game: To me, this screams someone who read a mafia wiki page or something and is leaning on these terms and outside information as a source of authority. He can sound much more confident and harder to attack by dropping these even without a leg to stand on. Second, he keeps talking from the point of view of a mafia, which I feel is a slip as well: This one especially, in response to zorkmid's accusation: I feel like this is a huge slip, as he's speaking as though he knows that the person he is responding to is town. Couple other things that are suspicious, his argument rebuttles are always just fluff and dismissal: This makes it easy to shut down opinions quickly and that attitude makes it extremely hard to respond. Basically I feel like sandroba has been screaming for more analysis and more posts, but whenever anyone posts arguments, he tries to shut them down quickly or dismiss them as a joke. Finally, as usual, Eternalmisfit's and Zorkmid's analyses. On April 16 2011 21:36 Eternalmisfit wrote: Sandroba Not getting a strong scum/townie vibe from him. So he can be either. On April 17 2011 02:49 Zorkmid wrote: Sandroba + Show Spoiler [analysis] + Has posted some pretty good analytical thoughts, has seemed very pro town. There is one mistake he made early on that I just simply cannot get past. And in the wake of what he has posted since, I just can't wrap my head around. I could be nothing, but I think everyone needs to see these two consecutive posts. 1. In response to my first idea that sandroba is scum because he knows that forumite was gonna be inactive and was trying to protect him. That makes no kind of sense whatsoever. How is me saying losing townies is a bad thing makes me scum? I'm obviously town. The idea of lynching inactives is really just to make sure everyone post enough so we can get a read on them. Also attacking the one doing analisys on you is not good town play. That's called OMGUS from what I've read. If you really are town then you should either defend yourself or make a case of someone you think is scum (a decent one, not the nonsencical one you've posted) so you can actually help town. I also have no connection with forumite and I fail to see how you could possibly have drawn this conclusion. And to say it doesn't matter if he posted that before or after he got PM'ed is just LOL. You are looking more and more like scum to me. Whoa, I thought that was scholeosis posting that, and I was thinking we had a clear scum for day 1 lynch. Besides the analisys part, since I haven't done one on you, my point still stands. I don't think you are scum though, since you are actually trying to do analises, although not a good one. I don't know exactly what it means that he has a TOTALLY different idea about a post depending on who posted it, but it's weird. Zorkmid + Show Spoiler + In response to Zorkmid's accusation against him, Forumite post the following: On April 16 2011 02:54 Forumite wrote: I don´t understand your analysis at all. I´m in the game, posting, but unfortunately I can´t be online all the time. I will try to compensate by posting more when I can. -------- I see 2 things people should take note off. Please call me out if I misinterpret the situation, I WANT to hear your defence against these accusations. That I accuse Zorkmind immediately after he´s suspicious of me is bad form, but please check his posts if you don´t believe me. Zorkmind has posted that he is suspicious of Forumite (me), Ssandroba (twice) and Shcoleosis, all three who try to encourage analysis and debate and doesn´t want to lynch innocents. I feel this is scummy behavior because analysis and carefull lynching is what Town wants. On April 16 2011 03:51 Forumite wrote: FoS: Zorkmid For the reasons mentioned above in my post, and because Zorkmid hasn´t made any effort at all to change my mind. On April 16 2011 04:05 Forumite wrote: Why do you accuse those who want debate and analysis? Isn´t that a good way to find Scums? I want an answer from the lurkers too, especially if they are quiet tomorrow too, but the way you focused on them now, at the time that I want answers from you, feels more like you are trying to direct the heat to someone else. Forumite also posts waaaay later indicating that he still believes Zorkmid to be scum. On April 16 2011 19:26 Forumite wrote: I´m going to go by my earlier suspicions, that Zorkmid is Mafia because of his random accusations and willingness to lynch for weak reasons. That his defence is to vote on the one the rest of Town wants to Lynch doesn´t speak in his favor IMO, he´s not defending, just shifting blame. ##Vote Zorkmid sandroba calls out Zorkmid for a chainsaw defense which wasn't actually a chainsaw defense, so that can be ignored. Fast forward to right after my big analysis post on Shcoleosis and the subsequent bandwagon against her. She defended herself with this post by showing how in her opinion, Zorkmid was scummier than her. On April 16 2011 09:51 Shcoleosis wrote: + Show Spoiler [post] + After reading this thread entirely, here's what I think on the matter: In my opinion, one of the first to accuse is usually the guilty one. Automatically everyone’s opinions are immediately placed under suspicion as the game progresses. That being the case, a mafia member wouldn’t express his opinions as eagerly as he would if he were agreeing with someone else’s. He would, however, be quick to blame, because doing so would divert attention away from himself. On April 15 2011 20:53 Zorkmid wrote: My FoS is on Shcoleosis as well for the same reasons, and will also be on anyone that jumps on Misfit's argument about this Zorkmind person. Zorkmid came up with the idea of lynching inactives and lurkers. That would work out greatly to his advantage if he were part of the mafia since it is more of an opportunity to blend, right? The more we accuse those of having a different opinion, the less of a suspect he seems to be. I am not the first to disagree with him. I am not the first to be accused because I disagreed with him. Notice how Zorkmid says he “will also be on anyone that jumps on Misfit’s argument about his Zorkmind person.” Why so defensive, Zorkmid? Perhaps he is afraid of everyone discovering how he is desperately trying to divert attention away from himself. He’s doing a great job of it. I had my suspicions about him early on because he's not only quick to agree with the majority, but he is also quick to blame. I didn't quote any other of his posts, but to me, he acts quite suspicious in most of them. She follows that post up with this: On April 16 2011 10:12 Shcoleosis wrote: "If I were a mafia, I'd be looking for the first opportunity to form a bandwagon against a known townie." Uh, Zorkmid, isn't that exactly what you're doing? Wait, isn't that also what you did to Sandroba?? Take a look at the pattern you're creating. Exhibit A. And this: On April 16 2011 10:19 Shcoleosis wrote: I've noticed something else about you. You're fickle in your accusations. One minute you're accusing someone of this, and the next you're accusing someone of that. You keep looking for someone to blame. Misfit, Sandroba, Shcoleosis....who is next, Zorkmid? The only reason you are sticking by your argument is because everyone is on your side. You quickly shifted the blame to the next person when you found that no one was backing up your accusation. Lucky for you, you are not the only one suspicious of me. I guarantee you that is the only reason you are sticking by your vote against me. If no one backed you up on this, you would have immediately blamed the next person. To me, that screams nothing but scum....a scum desperately trying to fit in. A little later, Eternalmisfit also posts some suspicion. On April 16 2011 10:59 Eternalmisfit wrote: I do also have some suspicions on Zorkmid who seems to be too finger happy at pointing at others. But, it is hard to say whether this is his usual forum personality or whether he trying to parry away any attention. Sadly, since it is mostly new people here, it is hard to get a read on someone on the basis of posting habits. At this point sandroba believes Zorkmid to be town. Eternalmisfit's analysis:+ Show Spoiler [Eternalmisfit's analysis] + On April 16 2011 21:36 Eternalmisfit wrote: Zorkmid Zorkmid is suspicious of Shcoleosis to the point where he will lynch her before lurkers. It seems like an opposite relation of Forumite i.e. if one of the is mafia, then the other one is town. Some more thoughts in next post. On April 16 2011 21:53 Eternalmisfit wrote: The bolded part makes me highly suspicious that Zorkmid is scum. There are multiple people who think that it is likely that Shcoleosis is scum. But none of them are strongly confident about it as there is no concrete evidence of her being mafia apart from a few scum looking posts. However, Zorkmid is so confident that Shcoleosis is mafia that he is taunting her with that statement. This seems quite scummy to be me as if Zork was mafia, he would know Shcoleosis is mafia or not and thus can make strong statements like this. This by itself can even suggest that Zorkmid is just an aggressive poster so is not sufficient by itself to give a strong mafia read. The second part of his statement is what gives a strong mafia read. He has been posting multiple times that he is reading guides/following other mafia threads. However, I doubt that claiming blue is suggested as a good idea anywhere on Day 1. It almost seems like Zork is trying to fish out whether Shcoleosis is blue or not which seems scum-like to me. I am going to tentatively post for Zorkmid until I hear his point of view. ##Vote Zorkmid Shcoleosis + Show Spoiler + The first person to suspect Shcoleosis (I think, somebody may have done it before and simply misspelled the name, in which case i missed it) The post: On April 15 2011 20:46 sandroba wrote: Well, there's not much info right now, but my main suspicion right now is scholeosis. I want to get this thread going as soon as possible so here it goes: First he states the obvious: we don't want to kill town, we want to kill scum. Then he says he's newbie and that's obvious too, as this is a newbie game, and from what I read from guides that's usually a scum tell trying to justify his current and future behaviour. Here he talks about not trying to protect the inactive. Note that at this point there were 3 people inactive. Maybe he's claiming not trying to protect the inactive scum? That feels like a slip to me. Then in the last part of his post he claims he doesn't understand the clear logic of being active is pro-town as it gives us more information from which to analise. Zorkmid agrees. So does Vain, but he actually makes a substantial post about why: On April 16 2011 06:38 Vain wrote: Well i'll come out of the shadows then and will mention there is not very much too say jet. You can only argue that some are more active then others but i don't think any obvious or major slips were made. Sure, Zorkmid has like 50% of the posts but doesn't really really fit the picture of scum(jet?). I think Shcoleosis has displayed an odd behaviour by at first saying I'm still learning :/ and switching from opinion that fast but an explanation for this could be that she really isn't really into this game jet and is just afraid of being hanged the first day. Still until she can give an explenation, my vote is still on her. As does Eternalmisfit: On April 16 2011 07:28 Eternalmisfit wrote: I am quite suspicious of Shcoleosis being scum. + Show Spoiler + Most of the people in the town are in 2 camps: lynching lurkers or not lynching lurkers. And for the most, the people have strong opinions on the matter. Shcoleosis initially was quite against the idea at the start of the discussion. However, as my suggestion gained some support (as most of the people opposed to it posted later), she quickly jumped sides and was semi-pro for lynching inactives. I think she is changing her opinion and trying a bit too hard to fit in which seems like scummy behavior. She has also been inactive since those posts. FoS Shcoleosis In response to this, I do a nice post-by-post analysis of Shcoleosis, culminating in me voting for her. On April 16 2011 08:05 VarpuliS wrote:+ Show Spoiler + ...And as promised, here is my analysis of Shcoleosis' posts. First post is a response to Eternalmisfit's suggestion to pressure lurkers On April 15 2011 11:17 Shcoleosis wrote: Yeah, that seem logical. We don't want to kill innocent townies, though...It's the mafia we want gone! I highly doubt any mafia would be lurking or inactive when they have chances to kill. But who am I to say...I'm still learning :/ This bolded line is not scummy, it's just stupid. Mafia doesn't kill by talking, they kill by pm'ing GMarshal at night. Mafia needs to avoid drawing attention to itself to prevent themselves from getting lynched. This post in general is pretty worthless, ending with a line that is... strange. But who am I to say...I'm still learning :/ This is the first scumtell I can see. She basically says "don't listen to me, i'm new." Townies need to talk and be listened to, not ignored because this is their first game. Only mafia and blues benefit from being ignored, so unless he roleclaims, lets assume scum. Second post comes a little bit later. the post reads: On April 15 2011 11:41 Shcoleosis wrote: I'm sure getting rid of the inactive would make the lynching process easier, but I can't help but question the idea of getting rid of people unnecessarily. I'm thinking about it more, and I'm realizing that there's a chance the one we lynch is scum and there's also a chance that he or she might not be scum....no way to tell right now. Hopefully we'll get lucky. This is a post which blends in. It says practically nothing, but appears to be a contribution. Blending in is not something a townie needs to do. +1 scum level. Finally, we've got lucky number 3: On April 15 2011 13:01 Shcoleosis wrote: Not trying to protect the inactive. I guess I just didn't really understand your logic well. But, hey, if it takes lynching the inactive to get rid of the scum, LET'S DO THIS! Lol Here, Shcoleosis basically says: "you seem to disagree with me... fine, you're right!" Agreeing with everybody else is something that two kinds of players do: -unhelpful townies -because they're just being sheep -mafia -because they're trying to blend in I don't want either in my town come lategame. Based off of this analysis, I'd like to start putting some pressure on Shcoleosis. Until a better target surfaces or she comes up with some good posts later on, I'll put my vote on her. ## Vote Shcoleosis This starts a bit of a bandwagon. the following people subsequently vote for Shcoleosis in the following order:
Zorkmid's analysis of Shcoleosis: On April 16 2011 10:03 Zorkmid wrote: I've just learned that you should always beware of the person that is the first to agree with a scum read. If I were a mafia I'd be looking for the first opportunity to form a bandwagon against a known townie. Misfit was the first to point the finger at me, and I wanted everyone to wait and watch for the second  Question for you Scheleosis......what's your plan to survive tomorrow? I'd say your only bet is to claim blue. ##Vote Scheleosis Eternalmisfit again posts his suspicion: On April 16 2011 10:59 Eternalmisfit wrote: Just read the recent set of posts and Shcoleosis arguments. Although does she raise at least one point in her defense (i.e. she did not try to agree with what I was saying right away). Nevertheless, I am still a little suspicious of her trying to blend in (and then accusing Zorkmid of being mafia for the same reason). His analysis: On April 16 2011 21:36 Eternalmisfit wrote:Shcoleosis I was suspicious of her due to low activity and trying to fit in. But, she seems to be more active now. I am still not confident that she is town but I don't get any strong vibes of her being mafia as well now. Vain's reason for joining the Shcoleosis bandwagon: On April 17 2011 00:26 Vain wrote: Hmm, the reason i voted for shcoleosis is that in my opinion her behaviour was very scummy like( switching sides, saying things like first time playing guys). Witch was pointed out earlyer by the other players before me. She did not post again untill after i voted for her. I may note that the posts after that were not so much scum behaviour, but i am still not really convinced we have a better alternative. Although zorkmid could be suspected due to throwing accusations out like there is no tomorrow, which could be his strategy but is drawing attention to him and would be very risky if he were to be scum. Nevertheless zorkmid would be my number two but only to him being profoundly accusing. I haven't really looked in the accusations of the others too much but i'll try to post an analysis of them later on. And once again, Zorkmid's analysis: On April 17 2011 02:49 Zorkmid wrote:Shcoleosis FoS I'm very suspicious of this player. She has been the first person to echo several ideas of other players.... Example I also find it very scummy that when eyes are on her, she reminds us that she's new to the game, as if that had anything to do with anything. Eternalmisfit + Show Spoiler + Eternalmisfit has been under suspicion of being scum a grand total of once. It was by me, a while before he started posting his good analysis. the post reads: On April 16 2011 07:10 VarpuliS wrote: I just looked though the thread, and pretty much 100% of Eternalmisfit's posts have been pushing for an inactive lynch day 1. He'd like to get everybody talking, but has yet to contribute in a meaningful way. If we're gonna lynch a lurker, it should either be him or Senj, who has been lurking since the beginning of the game, save a few posts about inactives. It wasn't so much an actual suspicion, rather a way to get him talking. It worked, and he's been actively analyzing since then, so he's no longer under any suspicion from me, as of now. Zorkmid likes him too: On April 17 2011 02:49 Zorkmid wrote:EternalMisfit Every post I have seen of his, has been thoughtful conversation starting analysis. I think that he has used his voting to spark even more conversation. We'll see how it goes in these last ~10 hours, but I think this mofo is town. Vain + Show Spoiler + Vain hasn't been super active. The first person to notice this post-early day 1 when he was asleep is Zorkmid, who posts: On April 16 2011 03:59 Zorkmid wrote: I'm all up for scumhunting, and will defend myself at any point that I think it's necessary. Let's hear from the lurkers! VarpuliS Senj Vain Penny for your thoughts? Forumite subsequently classifies him as a lurker. Because of his lurking, there's not much information about him to analyze. Thus, Eternalmisfit's analysis of him is: On April 16 2011 21:36 Eternalmisfit wrote:Vain He has posted multiple times throughout the thread. So, he is not as inactive as Senj/Elm, but he has not posted much of substance either. This seems a little suspicious again. Forumite is also suspicious: On April 16 2011 22:11 Forumite wrote: I get a bit of bad wibes from Vain, not because he´s a slow poster, but because I don´t see him posting his own reasons for jumping on the wagon against Shcoleosis. It didn´t take long for people to start voting once the first vote was in. Zork and Sandroba voted quickly, but they had allready stated they had FoS on Shcoleosis, while Vains voting felt more like he was just agreeing rather than making up his own mind. I´d like to see some more reasons from him. his request for a reason is granted though, so that suspicion may now have been lifted. Zorkmid thinks that he's a townie, however: On April 17 2011 02:49 Zorkmid wrote: Vain Ok, so my logic for thinking Vain is a Townie is a bit convoluted, but here goes: I don't think that a mafioso would want to be perceived to suspect two people on opposite sides of the argument between Shcoleosis and myself. I think that Shcoleosis is scum, and I think that if Vain was scum he would be on one side or the other, defending me OR Shcoleosis. Not both of us. If I left anything out, let me know. I focused on scum reads, as those are the most important, and for the most part didn't post any town reads other than those in the general analyses by Eternalmisfit and Zorkmid, because it was convenient for me. | ||
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Varpulis
United States2517 Posts
Well, I'm going to bed now. No doubt my previous post was riddled with mistakes, but there's nothing for it. I'll read through the responses tomorrow, but i hope this proves helpful to future analyses. | ||
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Varpulis
United States2517 Posts
Forumite I'm thinking that he's a townie at this point. He's been doing some nice analysis and promoting activity and discussion, which is good town play. Accusations against him have been groundless, so unless his posts get suspicious, I'm going to tentatively identify him as townie. elmizzt FoS I agree with your point Forumite: He's been lurking, his posts lack substance, and apart from his analysis of sandroba, which isn't very solid, he's contributed little to nothing. FoS elmizzt. sandroba Not sure where this guy stands, to be honest. He's posted some pretty good analysis, promoted activity, all that good stuff, but he's also done some suspicious stuff, i.e. having a totally different response to a post when he though Shcoleosis said it to when he thought Zorkmid said it, diverting discussions, and being overly dismissive. Pending further evidence, I'll put him on my "neutral" list. Zorkmid I'm getting a town vibe from him. He's just too active and open to be mafia. If he doesn't get hit in the 1st or 2nd night I'd get suspicious though, because his activity paints a gigantic target on his chest. Shcoleosis I'm still pretty damn suspicious of Shcoleosis. She avoided a lynch day 1 because we killed the inactive, but day 2 she's a priority lynch for me. scummy behavior and possible connections to other players make her lynch worthwhile even if she's town, because if she's not mafia, chances are some of the people arguing with her are. Eternalmisfit Eternalmisfit's been doing strong analysis and has made some key observations, and has overall been quite pro-town. Vain FoS Vain has been semi-active. I'm a little bit suspicious of him because he joined the Shcoleosis bandwagon without giving a reason until prompted to. Bandwagoning for the sake of bandwagoning is not great town play, and his logic and reasoning just haven't clicked with me. FoS, but not a priority. | ||
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Varpulis
United States2517 Posts
Medic Our medic needs to be protecting the most active pro-town posters. Prime targets for protection are
note: If you get hit and saved claim it. We need to know that. Later on, the medic can verify your statement, and we'll have a confirmed townie. note2: don't claim medic unless you really need to, i.e. to save yourself from a lynch. Mafia can and will just kill you the following night. Detective Our detective needs to be investigating the shady characters in our little town. Don't try to confirm the active townies. It's a waste of an action, and we don't have very many actions to waste. The shady people who need checking are:
Remember: you are sane and there is no Godfather. 100% of your results are accurate. | ||
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Varpulis
United States2517 Posts
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Varpulis
United States2517 Posts
If you think I'm scum, give some evidence. if you're demanding evidence from me, I'll demand evidence from you. Good luck finding it. Lets see if I can get my analysis posted before Forumite does... | ||
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Varpulis
United States2517 Posts
Shcoleosis First things first, I'm going to quote my original analysis. Her early posts have been analysed once, I see no need to go over them again. + Show Spoiler [Previous analysis] + On April 16 2011 08:05 VarpuliS wrote: ...And as promised, here is my analysis of Shcoleosis' posts. First post is a response to Eternalmisfit's suggestion to pressure lurkers This bolded line is not scummy, it's just stupid. Mafia doesn't kill by talking, they kill by pm'ing GMarshal at night. Mafia needs to avoid drawing attention to itself to prevent themselves from getting lynched. This post in general is pretty worthless, ending with a line that is... strange. This is the first scumtell I can see. She basically says "don't listen to me, i'm new." Townies need to talk and be listened to, not ignored because this is their first game. Only mafia and blues benefit from being ignored, so unless he roleclaims, lets assume scum. Second post comes a little bit later. the post reads: This is a post which blends in. It says practically nothing, but appears to be a contribution. Blending in is not something a townie needs to do. +1 scum level. Finally, we've got lucky number 3: Here, Shcoleosis basically says: "you seem to disagree with me... fine, you're right!" Agreeing with everybody else is something that two kinds of players do: -unhelpful townies -because they're just being sheep -mafia -because they're trying to blend in I don't want either in my town come lategame. Based off of this analysis, I'd like to start putting some pressure on Shcoleosis. Until a better target surfaces or she comes up with some good posts later on, I'll put my vote on her. ## Vote Shcoleosis and we now pick up with the next post she writes: On April 16 2011 08:55 Shcoleosis wrote: Whoa, what? I leave for a few hours and I come back to everyone against me? The last thing I'm trying to do is be falsely accused of something I'm obviously not. I was looking at things from a different point of view in order to help all of us find out who is mafia scum. Then, after I thought about it, I changed my mind a little because I started to see the point. Since I am new to this game, I am trying my best to give my point of view and understand without everyone being paranoid of me. Think of it this way, though, if I were mafia scum, why would I want to disagree with you all? That would make it blatantly obvious that I am scum! This is a bad defense. It's filled with fluff, states the obvious (first bolded line), makes excuses (second bolded line), and calls everybody else paranoid (third bolded line). The actual defense is: "I changed my mind a little, and then decided to agree with you all because if I disagreed, I would stand out as scum." According to this post, disagreeing with the town/not sheeping= scum To me, this is just as scummy as her previous posts. It promotes sheeping and makes lame excuses. Next, she attempts to divert the suspicion to Zorkmid, with this post: On April 16 2011 09:51 Shcoleosis wrote: After reading this thread entirely, here's what I think on the matter: In my opinion, one of the first to accuse is usually the guilty one. The first to accuse you was sandroba, not Zorkmid. Automatically everyone’s opinions are immediately placed under suspicion as the game progresses. That being the case, a mafia member wouldn’t express his opinions as eagerly as he would if he were agreeing with someone else’s. He would, however, be quick to blame, because doing so would divert attention away from himself. I disagree. Mafia would be trying to blend in, by agreeing with the majority and not being conspicuous. Zorkmid came up with the idea of lynching inactives and lurkers. no, he actually didn't. the first to post in support of lynching inactives was Eternalmisfit That would work out greatly to his advantage if he were part of the mafia since it is more of an opportunity to blend, right? except that he's been extraordinarily active and vocal about his opinions The more we accuse those of having a different opinion, the less of a suspect he seems to be. I am not the first to disagree with him. I am not the first to be accused because I disagreed with him. Notice how Zorkmid says he “will also be on anyone that jumps on Misfit’s argument about his Zorkmind person.” Why so defensive, Zorkmid? It's called a joke. people were misspelling his name Perhaps he is afraid of everyone discovering how he is desperately trying to divert attention away from himself. He’s doing a great job of it. I had my suspicions about him early on because he's not only quick to agree with the majority, but he is also quick to blame. I didn't quote any other of his posts, but to me, he acts quite suspicious in most of them. My responses are in red. This post would be a valid defense, except that most of the evidence cited is false. Lying and bending the truth are not the actions of townies looking to identify scum. they are the actions of scum trying to raise suspicion on a townie. Moving on. Shcoleosis now get into an argument with Zorkmid, with each accusing the other of being scum. On April 16 2011 10:12 Shcoleosis wrote: "If I were a mafia, I'd be looking for the first opportunity to form a bandwagon against a known townie." Uh, Zorkmid, isn't that exactly what you're doing? Wait, isn't that also what you did to Sandroba?? Take a look at the pattern you're creating. Exhibit A. Here, Shcoleosis calls Zorkmid's suspicion of sandroba an attempt to bandwagon him, and accuses Zorkmid of bandwagoning her even though he had been suspicious of her previously. Again, misinterpreting evidence to further her goals: This is scummy behavior, and still not a good defense. In her final real post of the debate (people start to notice the lurkers at this point, and a bandwagon starts on Senj) On April 16 2011 10:19 Shcoleosis wrote: I've noticed something else about you. You're fickle in your accusations. One minute you're accusing someone of this, and the next you're accusing someone of that. You keep looking for someone to blame. Misfit ..was never among those Zorkmid was suspicous of, Sandroba, Shcoleosis....who is next, Zorkmid? The only reason you are sticking by your argument is because everyone is on your side. You quickly shifted the blame to the next person when you found that no one was backing up your accusation. Actually, he changed his opinion based off of new evidenceLucky for you, you are not the only one suspicious of me. I guarantee you that is the only reason you are sticking by your vote against me. If no one backed you up on this, you would have immediately blamed the next person. To me, that screams nothing but scum....a scum desperately trying to fit in. Once again, mistruths are abound. Two people is not a lot of accusations. The argument here seems... forced. The italicised part at the end has no content. It's just filler. Still not a good argument in my book. This next post is in response to eternalmisfit's post regarding the argument between Shcoleosis and Zorkmid. On April 16 2011 11:26 Shcoleosis wrote: Eh, everyone's a critic. I don't see how anyone wouldn't defend himself if he's being accused of all the wrong things. Besides, I would think blending in would call for a concession. I'm withholding my vote until I see some more action. This post confuses me. Of course everybody would defend themselves when accused. You're defense just isn't very good. I don't follow the logic behind the bolded part. Could that be explained please? This next post is a pretty clear scumtell to me. On April 17 2011 01:44 Shcoleosis wrote: Not going to be on much today--It's a Saturday and I've things to do. It looks like I'm about to get lynched, and over the weakest of false reasons. I think my previous posts indicate why I would vote for Zorkmid. However, if Zorkmid, much to my dismay, ends up being anything other than scum, the pressure's going to automatically be on me. I've already had to defend my position as townie once. Basically I'm doing this to save my ass. ##Vote: Senj The bolded part is the scummiest line I've seen all game. Here, she says "this is why I think Zorkmid's scum" but declines to lynch him, due to the possibility that he could be town. TO me, this indicates a scum who knows that Zorkmid is town, and also knows that if Zorkmid gets lynched, she'll be next. She votes for Senj to avoid pressure and keep the suspicion away from her, because she doesn't want to defend her position. This is a scumtell if ever there was one, and isn't helping her "I'm not scum, Zorkmid is" argument. This brings us to the last post to be analyzed. On April 18 2011 01:36 Shcoleosis wrote: Regular town behavior can be interpreted as scummy behavior, and scummy behavior can be interpreted as town behavior. So far, I've seen most of you all basing your analysis off of what you assume to be town behavior or what you assume to be scum behavior. That's how this works, yes. We've got nothing to work with but our assumptions. your point? Weak assumptions are just going to get more green and blue people killed. If we want to catch and lynch the mafia, we have to think the way the mafia does. I mean, if you were part of the mafia, wouldn't you want to think like a townie in order to keep from being caught? WIFOM It's a suggestion, and hopefully it will bring us closer to who is and who isn't a townie. My analysis of everyone would probably look like a repeat, so I doubt that it's necessary for me to post. POST PLEASE! I agree that Varpilus definitely had the most thorough and seemingly accurate analysis. That still doesn't mean he couldn't be scum. OMGUS Just saying. Right now, most of my suspicion is on Elmizzt, Sandroba, and Zorkmid. I like how this post states the obvious, pretends to be insightful explains why she won't be adding to the analysis, calls the person suspicious of her scum, and agrees with everybody about who's suspicious, with Zorkmid tacked on. This is not strong town behavior, but it is clever scum behavior. The only remaining post is a challenge to explain why I'm suspicious of her. Consider it answered. | ||
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Varpulis
United States2517 Posts
On April 18 2011 02:48 Vain wrote: I would also like to point out how the voting went. This is some actual data we can use and not up for debate. But as always it is up for intepretation of us. It could very well be that one of the persons voted for we're scum and the mafia influenced the vote. There has been some swing in vote's which i find very suspicous. This is how the vote looked 10 hours before closing + Show Spoiler + On April 17 2011 00:38 chaoser wrote: Yes they do get modkilled shcoleosis: 2 Vain Zorkmid Zorkmid: 1 Forumite Senj: 2 sandroba Varpulis elmizzit: 1 Eternalmisfit shcoleosis to be lynched on account of getting to 2 votes first People who haven't voted yet: Shcoleosis, elmizzit, senj 10 hours and 25 minutes remaining till the end of day And here the final vote: So in a summarry. shcoleosis lost one vote on her senj gained SIX votes and Elmizzt lost one. We can conclude from this that there is some serous bandwagoning going on here and maby some influence of the mafia. Keep in mind that there are not one but two mafia members influencing the votes and that we can be sure that 2 of the votes are mafia ones. The mafia makes up already 25% of our population so do not rule out mafia influence out of this vote. Agreed. People bandwagoned on Sen and there is definitely at least one mafia who voted for Senj. Note that the order that people are listed there is the order in which they voted. Suspicious people who voted for Senj after my analysis of his posts (i.e. joined the bandwagon)
Eternalmisfit was the one who brought the lurking to my attention, so his vote is not a bandwagon. | ||
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Varpulis
United States2517 Posts
On April 18 2011 03:04 Eternalmisfit wrote: I would be surprised if none of me, Zork, or Varpulis get hit by the mafia tonight (or the next night at the very least). Since I know I am town, I would start getting suspicious of the other two in that case; and I believe it will be a likewise thought process for the other two as well. This. There's a reason the three of us are on my "medic save us" list. If Zork survives the next two nights without help from a medic, I'll be very suspicious of him. The trouble is by that point I'll most likely already be dead. I'm going to go do some real life stuff, I'll come back with final post a couple of hours before the day post comes, in case I get hit tonight. | ||
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Varpulis
United States2517 Posts
Let me repeat that: If you think i'm scum, go ahead and lynch me. | ||
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Varpulis
United States2517 Posts
I am confident that I've got at least one scum in my list of suspects. A townie for a mafia is a good trade in my book. In my opinion, there's no doubt that Shcoleosis is a superior choice for the day 2 lynch. I'm sure that some people agree with me. I'm sure that others don't. I urge you to all to vote for Shcoleosis. I've got multiple analyses to cite as to why. Forumite's got one "mistake" which was simply a miscommunication. | ||
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Varpulis
United States2517 Posts
On April 18 2011 06:05 Shcoleosis wrote: tl;dr Looks like you spent a lot of time and energy doing that...maybe a little TOO much time and energy. I wish I had the willpower to do something like that. Anyway, I've absolutely nothing to say about that...mainly because I didn't read it. If you think I'm mafia, go ahead and lynch me, baby. Another townie down, another one to go. Forumite, you think I'm mafia when we've got scum posting shit like this? And you said I was giving up on the game? I do think that Shcoleosis is mafia. Why don't we lynch her? It seems to me that she knows that I'm town, saw my defense, and realized that it might work. So she parroted it. Even if she isn't mafia --which I doubt-- She's not even reading the analysis people are posting. I don't want somebody like that on my team come LYLO. This bullshit about me being mafia because i'm the most pro-town player in this game is ridiculous. If I were scum, why would I provide all these tools for the town to use? Why would i make so many posts for people to analyze? Compare me to Shcoleosis.
I ask you all now to be honest. Who seems more scummy? | ||
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Varpulis
United States2517 Posts
I don't want people to want to lynch me. I show that by being active, helpful, and pro-town. If helping the town makes me scum, then what makes me town? | ||
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Varpulis
United States2517 Posts
On April 18 2011 06:17 Shcoleosis wrote: Correction: I'm not reading YOUR long-winded analysis. I'm pretty embarrassed for you because you're wasting your time. A lot of it. ninja'd while I wrote my last post. wow... just... wow. You seem less pro-town with every post you make. I hope others see this as well. At this point you don't even have to be scum, I still think you'd make a nice lynch target. | ||
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Varpulis
United States2517 Posts
. I'm probably going to go away for a while too, before I get to involved in this fight with Shcoleosis that seems to be going nowhere. See you all after the day post, assuming I make it out alive. (fingers crossed ) | ||
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Varpulis
United States2517 Posts
If mafia's got a roleblocker, looking at the possible setups this means that we've also got a dt, so best case situation, yay. Good night everybody, I'll join the day 2 discussion tomorrow. | ||
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Varpulis
United States2517 Posts
On April 18 2011 11:07 Zorkmid wrote: LOL! If you were REALLY roleblocked, this means that this is our setup: 1 Mafia Role Blocker, 1 Mafia Goon, 5 Town, 1 Medic, 1 Detective Sandroba has claimed detective, and the Medic guessed correctly. Can anyone else here confirm that if Sandroba is telling the truth (Im not sure) that this is the only setup possible? Just because he was roleblocked doesn't mean he has a role. More likely he's a townie who the mafia roleblocked for the sake of roleblocking somebody. From the role list in the second post: Roleblocker You are a mafia member who has the ability to prevent a player from performing a night action. Once per night, you may roleblock a player, and your target will be unable to perform night actions for that night. Your target will be informed that they have been roleblocked (even if they didn't have a night action). You do not have to use your action every night. | ||
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Varpulis
United States2517 Posts
It's interesting that the mafia targeted Forumite. I've got a theory as to why, too. Forumite analyzed me a couple of hours prior to the day post, and concluded that I was mafia. Now, imagine that the day post comes, and he's dead. Who looks like scum? Mafia had a plan with that kill: they wanted to put the suspicion off of themselves, and on to one of the town's most active analysts. If everybody thinks that i'm scum, nobody will believe my analyses. My most recent analysis was on Shcoleosis, so this evidence just makes her even more suspicious to me. FoS Vain FoS Shcoleosis | ||
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Varpulis
United States2517 Posts
On April 18 2011 22:26 Zorkmid wrote: Actually Occam's Razor tells me that the reason you didn't say you were saved at first is because you weren't, you didn't know that when you're saved the host PMs you with "you were saved" you guessed at the wording that would be used, and you were wrong. ##Vote Forumite But Zorkmid, unless somebody else claims that they took the hit and got saved, We'll have to believe him. I know I didn't get saved, you say that you didn't, Eternalmisfit hasn't claimed anything... Unless the medic completely ignored my "medics save us list" (which Forumite was on) and randomly picked somebody who happened to be the same guy that the mafia targeted, his claim makes sense. Occam's Razor tells me that Forumite is probably telling the truth. | ||
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Varpulis
United States2517 Posts
Also, that would be a really stupid lie, because the medic would know immediately that he was lying. On April 18 2011 23:00 sandroba wrote: Claiming to be saved while not being saved is a terrible move, as I explained in my analysis of vain. Medic could claim and trade his life for mafia, which is a great deal for town. I'm pretty sure Vain is mafia, so scholeosis can't be aswell. This says it all. I disagree that Vain and Shcoleosis can't both be mafia, but I agree with the rest of the post. | ||
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Varpulis
United States2517 Posts
It's a close call though. If we could lynch them both, I would. To the DT I'm going to assume we have at this point: Investigate Vain and Shcoleosis. | ||
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Varpulis
United States2517 Posts
Shcoleosis being scum fits perfectly with this, because I've been very vocal about lynching Shcoleosis, given my multiple analyses against her. If people don't believe me, then the scum gets to live another day. | ||
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Varpulis
United States2517 Posts
Correct me if I'm wrong, but Vain's big mistake was this: On April 18 2011 19:25 Vain wrote: It is not an obvious way to appear more town. If you claimed you were saved like you are now and someone else also would claim that one of you would be lying. That would couse suspicion on both of the claimers and probably would get one of you killed. Now if your claim is correct it would mean you were town(i really do not think you tried to kill yourself) And this would also mean VarpuliS would be in the clear. The reasoning behind this would be that if you would be killed while you were clearly suspecting Varpulis then VarpuliS would be drawing unnecessary suspicion on him. Also i still suspect scholeosis because with you AND VarpuliS gone there would be 6 people left. Night kill would mean a townie kill and then the maffia only would have only to persuade one person to win the game. With the leading accuser for scholeosis gone this would be an excellent position for scholeosis to be in. I could also be missing some connections. We now have to figure out who would have a reasonal benefit of you (and Varpulis) gone Go read sandroba's post, he explains why. | ||
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Varpulis
United States2517 Posts
Also, note how he's defending Shcoleosis. I'll think this over, and come back later with a some evidence. | ||
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Varpulis
United States2517 Posts
Remember, blues are also trying to hide, because if blues get uncovered, mafia goes ahead and kills them. I think that neither Shcoleosis nor Vain is contributing, and either would make a good lynch, because if the one we lynch today flips green, I can almost guarantee that the other one won't. By the way Shcoleosis: Reading the thread and not contributing is the definition of lurking. | ||
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Varpulis
United States2517 Posts
EBWOP: If Vain is not our medic, he makes a good lynch. | ||
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Varpulis
United States2517 Posts
On April 19 2011 04:23 sandroba wrote: To me both scholeosis and vain have presented extremely scummy behavior, but as I stated before there is simply no way they are both mafia. Looking at the first day activity it was pretty clear that scholeosis was going to get lynched, yet nobody seemed to care much. There was no way mafia could have known senj wasn't going to show up and it seemed like everyone was tunneling scholeosis, except for forumite and he is our only confirmed townie. I hope everyone understands that the mafia would try to not let this happen on day 1 if scholeosis was indeed mafia. Now looking at the night activity, mafia tryied to kill forumite. Before forumite analysis of varpulis his FoS was Vain and Elmizzt. No one seemed to give credit to forumite's analysis of vain, as he seemed very pro-town. Even forumite didn't seem convinced by his own analysis in the end. Then we know that the medic saved forumite. Who do you guys think that could have possibly targgeted forumite for a save? I personally think it's much more likely to be scholeosis than vain. If vain was medic he had no reason whatsoever to be sure forumite was town. Scholeosis on the other hand would be pretty convinced as forumite was the only one who defended him and everybody else was pointing fingers at him. Now let's say neither of them is the medic. That makes it more likely that vain's slip proves he is mafia. That's why I feel vain is the better lynch. Ever since I rose suspicion on vain all hell broke loose in this thread. That's much more consistent with him being mafia. This makes a lot of sense to me. Sandroba, you've got me convinced. I swear to god I'll lynch you if he flips medic, though. ##Vote: Vain | ||
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Varpulis
United States2517 Posts
Also, nobody knows what you're talking about when you reference the guides. If you want to ask a question, just ask it, don't be vague. To all the people calling Forumite a liar: Then what did happen? Mafia decided not to hit anybody? why the hell would they do that? Elmizzt, how did you know when the PM's went out? Are you claiming blue? | ||
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Varpulis
United States2517 Posts
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Varpulis
United States2517 Posts
God my spelling is terrible. | ||
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Varpulis
United States2517 Posts
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Varpulis
United States2517 Posts
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Varpulis
United States2517 Posts
On April 19 2011 08:32 Forumite wrote: Ready to vote on him in general. It looks like the support is weak, so I wonder if we shouldn´t consider other options. We´ll know either way after night 2 if Vain survives. Other options: Shcoleosis would still make a fine lynch if we can't get enough support for Vain. It could be that the mafia doesn't target Vain intentionally to make us suspicious of him if we let whether he lives or dies be the deciding factor in his guilt. It's better to base it all off of analysis. There are too many mind games that could be played from basing suspicions on mafia targets, especially because they're reading the same thread the rest of us are. If you tell them how to spread misinformation, they're going to spread misinformation. | ||
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Varpulis
United States2517 Posts
Shcoleosis is a good lynch if we can't get enough support for Vain. Basing Vain's guilt on whether the mafia kills him or not is a bad idea though. Mafia could intentionally not target him just to make us suspicious even if he actually is a townie. It's better to base all of our suspicions on analysis. | ||
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Varpulis
United States2517 Posts
Let's just assume for now that Vain isn't our medic. | ||
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Varpulis
United States2517 Posts
Needless to say, if one flips town, it's very likely that the other one is scum. | ||
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Varpulis
United States2517 Posts
Right now it's clear to me that we should lynch either Shcoleosis or Vain, but as of right now I'm not sure which one. | ||
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Varpulis
United States2517 Posts
On April 19 2011 10:19 Zorkmid wrote: Totally offtopic...When I open TL mafia threads on my phone the app crashes. What do you use? iPhone safari app. | ||
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Varpulis
United States2517 Posts
Unvote Vote: Shcoleosis | ||
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Varpulis
United States2517 Posts
##Unvote ##Vote: Shcoleosis | ||
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Varpulis
United States2517 Posts
Sandroba seems very pro-town to me, but isn't a guaranteed townie. Right now Forumite is the only one who definitely isn't scum. I think that we're on the right track by voting for Shcoleosis and suspecting Elmizzt. There isn't very much left to discuss at the moment, because neither Shcoleosis nor Elmizzt seems to be around to defend themselves. | ||
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Varpulis
United States2517 Posts
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Varpulis
United States2517 Posts
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Varpulis
United States2517 Posts
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Varpulis
United States2517 Posts
I think I'll join the next TL Mafia standard game, whenever that is. Things will get much harder, I imagine, when there are 30+ people to keep track of, rather than 9. | ||
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Varpulis
United States2517 Posts
Once is an accident. Twice is coincidence. Three times is an enemy action. Bus Driver can never target themselves I'm sorry | ||
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Varpulis
United States2517 Posts
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