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Well I know I'm town, so if you're going by the fact that scum is alerting scum still, then that makes Impervious red. I also wouldn't count out the fact that Ace could be inventing the messages if he were Scum just to lead town in the wrong direction. I'm looking at it both ways.
If Ace is town:
The messages are true
There was a message about a Canadian
If scum is alerting scum of each others identities, then one of me or Impervious are red, meaning Impervious is Red.
It could also be that scum want someone to push to lynch or kill either me or Impervious as well, when it says "Watch", not just "He's", meaning in that case, we're probably both green.
If Ace is scum:
The messages are most likely false
Scum killed GGQ
Ace fakes a message referencing the already dead GGQ, and then makes one about Canadians.
Ace knows who the rest of his scum team are, and knows neither Impervious nor myself are red.
He can now use that to push either of our lynches.
That's why I'm not jumping on Impervious either. Ace said he wants to lynch a lurker, but there's not many left. The easiest candidate would be BB, and after that one of you/San/Jackal/Eiii.
Lynching San would tell us Ace's alignment, but I'm not sure if we can sacrifice a town player if he's not scum. In that case, Ace is pretty much town, but then we will have killed one of our own, and Ace will most likely die at night. We can lynch Jackal based on the 50% probability that he's red, but we also have to keep in mind that there was RNG. BB replaced darm, who looked scummy, but was barely participating in the thread, so it's hard to get a complete alignment from his words and actions. BB also still hasn't had a chance to say anything yet. I haven't noticed much of Eiii, but I'm going to have to go reread all his posts. If I remember correctly, he wasn't a supporter of the bum lynch. Then there's yourself. you've been lurking pretty hard for a major part of the game, and now claim a bullet-proof, self-aware miller role. This doesn't absolve you from suspicion in my eyes, because that seems like a very easy thing to claim for scum, and explains why you would ever show up red to DT checks if that came up.
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So, correct me if I'm wrong, but the situation that we're at is that we don't know who's lying about their role. If we could get a little more information (I.e., a strategic lynch on somebody to confirm players as townie/mafia) we could peg at least one, if now two scum within the next two days. I'm assuming we have 1 mislynch left.
Ace claims Undercover Agent, sandroba claims vet. If one is telling the truth, both are, but if one is lying, then both are. Lynching either would confirm the other as either town or scum.
Tnkted's role is almost too good to be true. What makes me less suspicious of him than of Ace + sand is that he claimed after all of the DT's died. now, if we decide to check him, our only method will be to lynch him, which will validate his claim. I say we leave him for later. Lynching him would give us no new information.
Jackal58: I'm looking scummy now for jumping on his bandwagon because he disagreed with me, but I'm starting to see his point (because the CL told me to  ) He has claimed townie (i'm going to assume). Lynching him would practically confirm Ace/Sandroba as town or scum
Eiii needs to speak up before I lynch him for being too quiet. His lynch would contribute nothing
Darmousseh might have had some RL stuff, I'm going to wait for BB to finish reading the thread and start contributing. If he doesn't start contributing, I'm still up for lynching him. Again, no information would be gained from his lynch
Mr. Wiggles + Impervious must be watched closely in case ace flips Undercover Agent when/if we lynch him.
This is probably incomplete. I left myself out, for one thing, because I'm obviously biased. I'm thinking we should pick our lynch today based off of the information the flip would give us.
Any thoughts?
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On May 03 2011 05:11 Mr. Wiggles wrote:
Well I know I'm town, so if you're going by the fact that scum is alerting scum still, then that makes Impervious red. I also wouldn't count out the fact that Ace could be inventing the messages if he were Scum just to lead town in the wrong direction. I'm looking at it both ways.
If Ace is town:
The messages are true
There was a message about a Canadian
If scum is alerting scum of each others identities, then one of me or Impervious are red, meaning Impervious is Red.
It could also be that scum want someone to push to lynch or kill either me or Impervious as well, when it says "Watch", not just "He's", meaning in that case, we're probably both green.
If Ace is scum:
The messages are most likely false
Scum killed GGQ
Ace fakes a message referencing the already dead GGQ, and then makes one about Canadians.
Ace knows who the rest of his scum team are, and knows neither Impervious nor myself are red.
He can now use that to push either of our lynches.
That's why I'm not jumping on Impervious either. Ace said he wants to lynch a lurker, but there's not many left. The easiest candidate would be BB, and after that one of you/San/Jackal/Eiii.
Lynching San would tell us Ace's alignment, but I'm not sure if we can sacrifice a town player if he's not scum. In that case, Ace is pretty much town, but then we will have killed one of our own, and Ace will most likely die at night. We can lynch Jackal based on the 50% probability that he's red, but we also have to keep in mind that there was RNG. BB replaced darm, who looked scummy, but was barely participating in the thread, so it's hard to get a complete alignment from his words and actions. BB also still hasn't had a chance to say anything yet. I haven't noticed much of Eiii, but I'm going to have to go reread all his posts. If I remember correctly, he wasn't a supporter of the bum lynch. Then there's yourself. you've been lurking pretty hard for a major part of the game, and now claim a bullet-proof, self-aware miller role. This doesn't absolve you from suspicion in my eyes, because that seems like a very easy thing to claim for scum, and explains why you would ever show up red to DT checks if that came up.
And, whether Ace is town or not, we'll know more by keeping him alive for the night than we will otherwise. If Ace is red, it seems to be pretty certain that sandroba is also red. If not, I'm pretty certain that both would be green. I'm not sure which it is yet.
So, imo, we've gotta go after the 3rd mafia member. darm/BB, Jackal, and Eii are the best choices for that.
darm was really quiet, and BrownBear hasn't posted anything since the replacement, so we don't have much to go on. Eii is similar. Jackal came up with the inconclusive from the DT, and was already acting scummy before that. As much as I would rather lynch darm/BB or Eii, Jackal gives us the ~50% chance of hitting a red..... That's better odds than I can give to the others. And, I'm thinking that at this point, if we get it right, we will probably win. If not, we'll probably lose. That's why, unless something game-changing comes up in the next few hours, I'm sticking with my vote for him.
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EBWOP:
On May 03 2011 05:43 VarpuliS wrote:
If we could get a little more information (I.e., a strategic lynch on somebody to confirm players as townie/mafia) we could peg at least one, if now not two scum within the next two days. I'm assuming we have 1 mislynch left.
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I like that analysis of Ace's clues with consideration to his alignment, Wiggles. I'm going to assume that there are three scum left. (it could be only two, but I doubt that there are 4. 6 scum in a 15 person game seems like way too many to me) Right now I'm in support of a Jackal lynch more than anything else because it would give us a lot of information if he flips town, and he could very well be scum, which would be good for town irregardless of information.
If he's scum, then Ace and sand are town, and we can start looking more carefully at Ace's clues.
If he's CL, we'll have struck gold, and we'll have plenty to analyze base off of his previous posting.
If he's town, then we throw the one-two punch and lynch Ace and Sandroba back-to-back.
##Unvote: Brownbear (darmousseh)
##Vote: Jackal58
I'm back on you, jackal, but with better reasons this time.
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I don't agree with you about lynching for information, but I took a closer look at tnkted role claim.
Down-on-your-luck Stock Broker
Everything was going you way in the mid 2000s. Then the economy tanked, you lost most of your wealth, and your wife divorced you and took what was left! Now you are stuck roaming the streets of Liquidville. Because you are homeless, everyone in town is suspicious of you – investigations on you will always return “Not Town”. Fortunately for you, though, at night you can disappear into the alleyways, making it impossible to find (and then shoot) you!
Besides this role making no sense at all to me there are a couple things that stood out. First the colored tittle. I don't know about you guys, but my role pm has no color. He's putting emphasis on the fact that he is town. Second "Everything was going you way". Seriously, a gramatical error in a role pm? Third, and this is kind of minor, but I find it weird that his name is tnkted and there is "Then the economy tanked". It's like he's making fun of us.
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I'm pretty convinced tnkted is scum. Besides from the inconsistencies on him role pm, he goes ahead and vote for wiggles based on the part of the message intercepted by ace. He does no analysis and even say he could be wrong and it might be imprevious aswel. It seems to me he's trying to derail jackal's lynch. Maybe you succeded because I'm voting for you.
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This might not be relevant at all, but he's had this set up for basically the entire game.On April 25 2011 12:21 tnkted wrote:
Everyone disregard this (crumbing for later):
DSBETNLBNTF
Down-on-your-luck Stock Broker
Everything was going you way in the mid 2000s. Then the economy tanked, you lost most of your wealth, and your wife divorced you and took what was left! Now you are stuck roaming the streets of Liquidville. Because you are homeless, everyone in town is suspicious of you – investigations on you will always return “Not Town”. Fortunately for you, though, at night you can disappear into the alleyways, making it impossible to find (and then shoot) you!
DSBETNLBNTF. The capital letters of the PM match the breadcrumb he left. Either this is a genius fake, or he was smart and gave us a way to confirm him.
His role is so strange that more explanation is neccesary than "you went to war, you've got an extra life" iGrok might as well have just pm'd sandroba You are a veteran, you have an extra night life
That would not have been possible for tnkted. also, this is a role that iGrok invented, it seems. it makes sense that he would put more effort into it than sandroba's run-of-the-mill veteran role.
Ace, could you post your pm too for comparison?
I think that there's less reason to lynch tnkted than there is to lynch Jackal, plain and simple. I'm not lynching jackal just for the information, sand. I think that there's a genuine chance that he could be scum, just like everybody else. The difference is that if i'm wrong, i'll have a much better idea who to lynch next.
If tnkted wants to derail the Jackal vote, doesn't it make more sense to vote for jackal anyways? Because if he is, they're both scum, and I've already pointed out why Jackal makes a very smart lynch in the case that he's scum.
Don't you want to confirm yourself, sand?
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Reposting for emphasis: Ace, could you please post your pm so that we can compare it to tnkted's and sandroba's?
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On May 03 2011 06:07 sandroba wrote:
I'm pretty convinced tnkted is scum. Besides from the inconsistencies on him role pm, he goes ahead and vote for wiggles based on the part of the message intercepted by ace. He does no analysis and even say he could be wrong and it might be imprevious aswel. It seems to me he's trying to derail jackal's lynch. Maybe you succeded because I'm voting for you.
At the risk of putting the vote back on me, if tnkted is scum and Ace is what he claims to be that would make Impervious scum wouldn't it?
To be honest with you I find both of their claims outrageously unbelievable. However it would appear that only 1 could be telling the truth. Although I think they're both lying.
If Ace is scum tnkted is basically going on a 50/50 shot on Wiggles with no analysis to support his decision.
If tnkted is scum he's voting for the one he knows is town and Ace will most likely get shot tonight.
Since I seem incapable of getting you guys to realize that a judge/jury/executioner role is almost entirely made up smoke and mirrors bs I have no problem with voting for tnkted.
This forces me to assume for the moment that one of them is telling the truth and the way tnkted just voted with no explanation makes Ace's wild ass claim appear to be slightly less wild ass than tnkted's.
Plus throw in the lurk factor. The only game I've played with tnkted was Insane 2 and there were times I swear he was just posting to get his name on every page.
##unvote: Ace
##Vote: tnkted
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Wow, I didn't realize that, it's clever indeed, but I fail to see how that confirms him as townie. He has been planing to role claim since the begining of the game and it makes sense for him to have written it then. Also how do you explain the "you" instead of "your" and the colored title in his "copy-paste"?
I'm fine with jackal lynch aswel, because I think they are both scum, but I'm not as interested in confirming myself as town as I am in finding scum.
And sure, ace posting his pm would be nice.
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I agree, the coloring in the title is strange. I'm ignoring the mistake in the pm, because the host is only human, and browsers don't check for grammatical errors (believe me, they not do)
iGrok might have felt the need to clarify because the role isn't in the OP. That's my theory, anyways. I just realized that ex-marine isn't in the op either, so nvm, it is weird.
There wasn't any coloring in my pm either, but then again, it was just the townie role from the role list (minus the bold and the green). That's why I'm asking Ace to post his, for comparison.
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On May 03 2011 04:44 tnkted wrote:
Ok, I just went back through all of GGQ's posts and didn't find a single thing thats conclusive. I don't think scum used breadcrumbs this game., if what ace is saying about his interceptions is true. I think CL just sent things related to the people's profiles and meta. Is there a list somewhere where it shows who all is alive? because if there are 3 scum left and we have 7 players (by my count) this is lylo.
IMO Jackal is a bad lynch. If what ace posted was true, CL didn't use breadcrumbs at all! Instead they used clues related to the person's identity. Specifically,
"watch the canadian" and "likes mens magazines," the latter obviously pointing at GGQ. The question is, watch the canadian: whats up with that? Who is a well known canadian player playing in this game? Impervious is possible, but I'm more afraid of...
#vote Mr. Wiggles
The message could mean that a Canadian is Scum, to shoot a Canadian player, to watch what they post in the thread...who knows? Wiggles seems like the most Pro-town player in the game so far so I doubt anyone voting for him.
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On May 03 2011 07:28 Ace wrote:Show nested quote +On May 03 2011 04:44 tnkted wrote:
Ok, I just went back through all of GGQ's posts and didn't find a single thing thats conclusive. I don't think scum used breadcrumbs this game., if what ace is saying about his interceptions is true. I think CL just sent things related to the people's profiles and meta. Is there a list somewhere where it shows who all is alive? because if there are 3 scum left and we have 7 players (by my count) this is lylo.
IMO Jackal is a bad lynch. If what ace posted was true, CL didn't use breadcrumbs at all! Instead they used clues related to the person's identity. Specifically,
"watch the canadian" and "likes mens magazines," the latter obviously pointing at GGQ. The question is, watch the canadian: whats up with that? Who is a well known canadian player playing in this game? Impervious is possible, but I'm more afraid of...
#vote Mr. Wiggles The message could mean that a Canadian is Scum, to shoot a Canadian player, to watch what they post in the thread...who knows? Wiggles seems like the most Pro-town player in the game so far so I doubt anyone voting for him.
And that's one of the reasons I'm skeptical of you. That message that you "intercepted" makes so little sense. I can't make anything out of it. It's got to apply to me or Wiggles, yea, but it still doesn't make any sense.
Wiggles seems to be really pro-town, and I already know that I am town.....
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To be honest, I kind of felt we had lost this game before last night. Then some good shit happened, and the next time I read the thread there was a lot of confusing stuff going on that I still can't sort out. So here's how I feel at the moment:
tnk's roleclaim is the most convenient role for scum to claim ever. Then again, the role is designed to make tnk seem scummy. I don't really know why he would claim right now. I'm confused. As a side note, in insane 2 when blues proposed everyone should claim partial words in their role so they could double-check some roles people had, kavdragon jumped at the chance and later used that setup to claim a protown role when he was actually red or black or something, I can't remember. Anyway, breadcrumbing something like this is pretty easy. The role tnk claimed excuses his lurking. That's pretty nice for him :/
Ace feels really sketchy to me. First, his day one plan that clearly accomplished pretty much nothing-- it got some activity going, yeah that's good but as a 'plan' coming from a vetran player I expected more than just a list of names and associated keywords that he tells people to watch out for. So that's weird. Then his most recent claim-- seems reasonable, but it seems like a weird time for him to claim like that. Mafia accidentally kills one of their own -> opportunity for cl to claim vig and another to claim vet? But CL gets the hit list before the day post, as I understand it, so why wouldn't he take the chance to claim the hit in advance and make himself look better? If he actually is something vig-y, why didn't he do the same for the same reasons? Also, anotherthing that seems off to me is that his three-word interceptions of the five word messages seem too complete by themselves. They feel contrived to me, basically, but that could be due to a fake claim or because the role gets three useful words from each five word message sent.
So again, nothing for ace really lines up town or scum for me. I'm confused.
Of the non-lurkers, I would be most comfortable lynching ace right now. I'm also going to try to not lurk so I don't get lynched :X
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On May 03 2011 06:25 VarpuliS wrote:
Reposting for emphasis: Ace, could you please post your pm so that we can compare it to tnkted's and sandroba's?
Your role is the following:
UNDERCOVER AGENT
Your entire training in the FBI has come to this moment and it's time to put your skills into action. Since you are an expert at wiretapping every day you will intercept parts of a message the Cell Leader has sent to his Agent. Use these messages to try and stay one step ahead of the Sleeper Cells. Like all FBI Agents you carry a sidearm but you only have 1 bullet. If you shoot an Agent life will go on. However, if you shoot an innocent person then you will automatically alert an Agent in the area and be killed immediately. Good luck.
On May 03 2011 05:56 sandroba wrote:I don't agree with you about lynching for information, but I took a closer look at tnkted role claim. Show nested quote +Down-on-your-luck Stock Broker
Everything was going you way in the mid 2000s. Then the economy tanked, you lost most of your wealth, and your wife divorced you and took what was left! Now you are stuck roaming the streets of Liquidville. Because you are homeless, everyone in town is suspicious of you – investigations on you will always return “Not Town”. Fortunately for you, though, at night you can disappear into the alleyways, making it impossible to find (and then shoot) you! Besides this role making no sense at all to me there are a couple things that stood out. First the colored tittle. I don't know about you guys, but my role pm has no color. He's putting emphasis on the fact that he is town. Second "Everything was going you way". Seriously, a gramatical error in a role pm? Third, and this is kind of minor, but I find it weird that his name is tnkted and there is "Then the economy tanked". It's like he's making fun of us.
Well having a grammatical error in a role PM isn't damning. The thing is that as far as we know the Scum have 1KP and there are no medics. So for there to be a Veteran and Bulletproof role in the same game is eye raising isn't it? I think he put the color in there on purpose because my role PM didn't have color either.
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@Eiii: why would I claim before the night is over when I can shoot?
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voting for Brownbear until he posts. tnkted's claim doesn't excuse his lurking for sure but we also need to see what's taking BB so long to post.
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On May 03 2011 06:41 sandroba wrote:
Wow, I didn't realize that, it's clever indeed, but I fail to see how that confirms him as townie. He has been planing to role claim since the begining of the game and it makes sense for him to have written it then. Also how do you explain the "you" instead of "your" and the colored title in his "copy-paste"?
I'm fine with jackal lynch aswel, because I think they are both scum, but I'm not as interested in confirming myself as town as I am in finding scum.
And sure, ace posting his pm would be nice.
He learned the ''create a role in advance" trick from Kav in Insane 2. Kav mind raped me with it and town lost due in large part to my gullibility. I'm town. I'm not buying bullshit claims anymore.
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I didn't follow insane II, so I was unaware that his has been done before. That in adition to the disparity between his pm and those of Sandroba and Ace (colored role instead of capslocked) makes me mighty suspicious of him.
Thinking about the role objectively, why would a miller need to be bulletproof anyway? If the mafia is stupid enough to kill him, it's their loss.
Why would you lurk so much if you knew that you couldn't get hit at night? Wouldn't you try to be as town friendly as possible so that mafia would try to kill you? Instead he says "i'm being quiet so that dt's don't check me."
His role is an excuse to lurk... and you all know how much Jackal and I have lurkers. I'm switching to tnkted, but BrownBear had better post soon, or else i'm switching.
we're probably going to get the information that we need from the nightkill, so we might as well lynch the scummiest player today.
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EPT
