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On February 01 2011 04:37 deconduo wrote:Show nested quote +On February 01 2011 04:29 Kavdragon wrote:On February 01 2011 02:53 deconduo wrote:
Its hard to ignore the connections to the mayor as well, the 2 picked bodyguards and one of the biggest campaigners for him.
My thoughts are to lynch Nemesis today and for vig (if we have one) to target kav tonight. If he dies it confirms Beneather and GMarshal as scum.
Out of curiosity, is this an FoS? Having a vig hit me is a bad idea. I am 97% positive that I am protected. It's an interesting push though, something that may be very telling of you, Decon: There is a possibility that I don't think has been mentioned in regards to the kills last night: Mafia hitting D3 makes little sense. Ergo, Mafia didn't hit D3. Town asked for a Vig to hit D3, and D3 was hit. Ergo, a Vig hit D3. Mafia hit GMarshal. GMarshal's biggest contribution to the game recently has been protecting me. Ergo, Mafia are trying to kill me. Mafia have two hits, so it's possible that they hit an SK. However, hits happen in order. This means that the Mafia could hit GMarshal, then hit me, in one night. I could have been the second target. Now, let's look at what the mafia would do in that case: Gmarshal didn't die, and didn't claim Vet. Thus he's either medic protected, or he's SK. He was gone during the time that the SK didn't put in a hit, so that make them think that he very well might be SK. If Gmarshal is SK, Beneather is Mafia, then I'm unprotected. But rather than waste a hit on the Mayor (again) why not call for a vig to hit the mayor? At worst, the vig looses his hit, and at best they take out the mayor. Deconduo, what have you to say for your idea? + Show Spoiler +On February 01 2011 04:28 Kavdragon wrote:
##Unvote: Nemesis
##Vote: Deconduo Not a FOS, just something to keep around, but honestly I don't think much of it yet. Kita has been somewhat outspoken against nemesis so it is unlikely they are both mafia and I like Nemesis as scum a lot more than kita. Also I think GMarshal is probably SK or telling the truth about being protected. I must have missed the part where town asked vig to hit d3. Even if thats the case it would mean beneather is vig and there your logic fails.
Uh...What? How does that mean that Vig is Beneather? Also, I asked for the vig to hit him. LINK
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On February 01 2011 04:51 deconduo wrote:Show nested quote +On February 01 2011 04:49 Kavdragon wrote:On February 01 2011 04:37 deconduo wrote:On February 01 2011 04:29 Kavdragon wrote:On February 01 2011 02:53 deconduo wrote:
Its hard to ignore the connections to the mayor as well, the 2 picked bodyguards and one of the biggest campaigners for him.
My thoughts are to lynch Nemesis today and for vig (if we have one) to target kav tonight. If he dies it confirms Beneather and GMarshal as scum.
Out of curiosity, is this an FoS? Having a vig hit me is a bad idea. I am 97% positive that I am protected. It's an interesting push though, something that may be very telling of you, Decon: There is a possibility that I don't think has been mentioned in regards to the kills last night: Mafia hitting D3 makes little sense. Ergo, Mafia didn't hit D3. Town asked for a Vig to hit D3, and D3 was hit. Ergo, a Vig hit D3. Mafia hit GMarshal. GMarshal's biggest contribution to the game recently has been protecting me. Ergo, Mafia are trying to kill me. Mafia have two hits, so it's possible that they hit an SK. However, hits happen in order. This means that the Mafia could hit GMarshal, then hit me, in one night. I could have been the second target. Now, let's look at what the mafia would do in that case: Gmarshal didn't die, and didn't claim Vet. Thus he's either medic protected, or he's SK. He was gone during the time that the SK didn't put in a hit, so that make them think that he very well might be SK. If Gmarshal is SK, Beneather is Mafia, then I'm unprotected. But rather than waste a hit on the Mayor (again) why not call for a vig to hit the mayor? At worst, the vig looses his hit, and at best they take out the mayor. Deconduo, what have you to say for your idea? + Show Spoiler +On February 01 2011 04:28 Kavdragon wrote:
##Unvote: Nemesis
##Vote: Deconduo Not a FOS, just something to keep around, but honestly I don't think much of it yet. Kita has been somewhat outspoken against nemesis so it is unlikely they are both mafia and I like Nemesis as scum a lot more than kita. Also I think GMarshal is probably SK or telling the truth about being protected. I must have missed the part where town asked vig to hit d3. Even if thats the case it would mean beneather is vig and there your logic fails. Uh...What? How does that mean that Vig is Beneather? Also, I asked for the vig to hit him. LINK Clues show beneather killed d3. If vig killed d3 -> beneather is vig.
Wrong. It has been said time, and time again, that the clues are in the post, but not necessarily in the description of the victims death. There is no correlation between clues in the killing of Meapak, and Meapak's killer.
IF, IF we assume that the clues point towards him, then he could be the SK as well. And I'm not convinced that the clues are being interpreted correctly.
On January 30 2011 11:11 Node wrote:
We googled all the information in our post, we do not condone the actions of the mafia, and find it despicable. Please lay off of our backs now.
Lunar, you came to some of your conclusions based off of the hosts googleing info, right? Wouldn't they have caught that with the check they said they did?
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On February 01 2011 04:53 Barundar wrote:Show nested quote +On February 01 2011 04:30 Kavdragon wrote:
Also, I only implied this in that post, but I think that the mafia are busing Beneather so they can kill me. And I think you are being paranoid. I have been suspecious of Beneather since his first real post, and now there is even clues to back it up. It seems like there is too strong of a resistance to push for a lynch now though, so I will try tomorrow instead. But if you are town, don't just discard him beceause you picked him as BG.
Sorry, I didn't mean that they were busing him, JUST to get at me. I agree that Beneather is scummy looking, and I think that the rest of the town is too, so it's not much of a loss to bus him.
I would like to know what the town thinks of my theory of the night actions, because If I'm right, then the clues are about the SK and a Vig. NOT mafia.
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On February 01 2011 05:10 LunarDestiny wrote:Show nested quote +On February 01 2011 05:04 Kavdragon wrote:On January 30 2011 11:11 Node wrote:
We googled all the information in our post, we do not condone the actions of the mafia, and find it despicable. Please lay off of our backs now.
Lunar, you came to some of your conclusions based off of the hosts googleing info, right? Wouldn't they have caught that with the check they said they did? I interpret that as: 1. We used google. 2. We do not agree with what mafia did and find the action wrong. 3. The last part "Please lay off of our backs now" is what I am struggling with.
It just seems strange that they would so blatantly point to Google, if that would lead to obvious clues pointing at Decon/Beneather... Whatever, Clues are clues.
The last part i took to mean that the mafia were angry with the mods for making the clues too obvious. Ooooor that they read the article about the cannibal, and were throughly disgusted with it.
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On February 01 2011 05:13 LunarDestiny wrote:Show nested quote +On February 01 2011 05:10 Kavdragon wrote:On February 01 2011 04:53 Barundar wrote:On February 01 2011 04:30 Kavdragon wrote:
Also, I only implied this in that post, but I think that the mafia are busing Beneather so they can kill me. And I think you are being paranoid. I have been suspecious of Beneather since his first real post, and now there is even clues to back it up. It seems like there is too strong of a resistance to push for a lynch now though, so I will try tomorrow instead. But if you are town, don't just discard him beceause you picked him as BG. Sorry, I didn't mean that they were busing him, JUST to get at me. I agree that Beneather is scummy looking, and I think that the rest of the town is too, so it's not much of a loss to bus him.
I would like to know what the town thinks of my theory of the night actions, because If I'm right, then the clues are about the SK and a Vig. NOT mafia. So according to your theory, then two night kills from mafia are missing. -I say it is likely to GMarshal is telling the truth about absorbing one hit. -Then where is the other hit?
The other hit is on an SK (unlikely) or it's on me, because they thought that the first shot would kill GMarshal, and I'd be unprotected. I donno, it makes sense to me, because we gained A LOT of information with that census that they would want to deny, but I wouldn't be the best judge of whether I'm paranoid or not...
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Ok, so I realize we have only 3 hours till the lynch, but I just have a bad feeling about all of these lynches. Beneather should NOT be lynched yet. This is not so that I stay alive, but so that the town continues to get the census information.
Jackal's play doesn't seem that deviant from his town play. To put it bluntly, the only thing I see going for him is the Steel clue. He is very active in the thread, so if he's scum, he'll slip up eventually, and we can get him then.
Nemesis' play also doesn't strike me that different that his normal play. He's distracting the town, and looks a bit scummy, but that's the way he's played from what I remember of our games. He's also very active in the forum, so catching him shouldn't be too hard given enough time.
It's the people who aren't posting that we need to worry about here. I think that we should lynch an inactive. Yes, it's day 3, but lynching an inactive is better than lynching an Active townie.
Deconduo, you put out Eti307, and I think that's a perfectly fine inactive to lynch. I'm open to suggestions for what specific inactive, but I don't think that we should switch who with less than 2.5 hours left, so get thinking.
To those who think Nemesis is SK, do you see any clues to him in the day 3 post? Cause I believe that everyone agrees that the SK was the one who was inactive.
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On February 01 2011 05:23 kitaman27 wrote:Show nested quote +On February 01 2011 05:10 Kavdragon wrote:On February 01 2011 04:53 Barundar wrote:On February 01 2011 04:30 Kavdragon wrote:
Also, I only implied this in that post, but I think that the mafia are busing Beneather so they can kill me. And I think you are being paranoid. I have been suspecious of Beneather since his first real post, and now there is even clues to back it up. It seems like there is too strong of a resistance to push for a lynch now though, so I will try tomorrow instead. But if you are town, don't just discard him beceause you picked him as BG. Sorry, I didn't mean that they were busing him, JUST to get at me. I agree that Beneather is scummy looking, and I think that the rest of the town is too, so it's not much of a loss to bus him.
I would like to know what the town thinks of my theory of the night actions, because If I'm right, then the clues are about the SK and a Vig. NOT mafia. I'm not sure I follow. Do you have additional information we do not? What would make you think the second hit is a vig?
+ Show Spoiler +On February 01 2011 04:29 Kavdragon wrote:Show nested quote +On February 01 2011 02:53 deconduo wrote:
Its hard to ignore the connections to the mayor as well, the 2 picked bodyguards and one of the biggest campaigners for him.
My thoughts are to lynch Nemesis today and for vig (if we have one) to target kav tonight. If he dies it confirms Beneather and GMarshal as scum.
Out of curiosity, is this an FoS? Having a vig hit me is a bad idea. I am 97% positive that I am protected. It's an interesting push though, something that may be very telling of you, Decon: There is a possibility that I don't think has been mentioned in regards to the kills last night: Mafia hitting D3 makes little sense. Ergo, Mafia didn't hit D3. Town asked for a Vig to hit D3, and D3 was hit. Ergo, a Vig hit D3. Mafia hit GMarshal. GMarshal's biggest contribution to the game recently has been protecting me. Ergo, Mafia are trying to kill me. Mafia have two hits, so it's possible that they hit an SK. However, hits happen in order. This means that the Mafia could hit GMarshal, then hit me, in one night. I could have been the second target. Now, let's look at what the mafia would do in that case: Gmarshal didn't die, and didn't claim Vet. Thus he's either medic protected, or he's SK. He was gone during the time that the SK didn't put in a hit, so that make them think that he very well might be SK. If Gmarshal is SK, Beneather is Mafia, then I'm unprotected. But rather than waste a hit on the Mayor (again) why not call for a vig to hit the mayor? At worst, the vig looses his hit, and at best they take out the mayor.
Summary: Town asks for Vig to hit D3. Vig hits D3. Mafia hits GMarshal, and Me. SK is inactive.
Thus, only the Vig and SK will have clues. (SK because the mods said they would)
On February 01 2011 06:03 CubEdIn wrote:
Kav: How would you feel about lynching Beneather?
I'm sorry if you already answered this, too tired to check in detail.
Please also consider the (albeit unlikely) possibility that GM is red.
No. Lynching Beneather is a bad idea this early in the game. I will consider the possibility of GMarshal being red.
On February 01 2011 06:05 CubEdIn wrote:
P.S.: Kav, here's the thing:
As far as I understand, there's no clues towards the SK.
Mafia did roleblock BB (according to him).
So I think clues are about the mafia.
No, the mods said that there would be clues to the SK, just not every night. Also, if you read the Day 3 post, you'll find that they said that they WERE putting clues in for some person that was inactive. (Mafia don't have to hit, Vig doesn't either, BB was RB'ed and GMarshal was hit, so the only possible explination is that the SK didn't shoot. )
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Let's keep all votes here for now. If we can get four - five people to agree to lynch him in the next half hour, let's go for it.
Don't let the votes trickle on though. If we do this, we need to make sure we can do it, then do it quick.
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On February 01 2011 08:11 darmousseh wrote:Show nested quote +On February 01 2011 07:57 Kavdragon wrote:
To those who think Nemesis is SK, do you see any clues to him in the day 3 post? Cause I believe that everyone agrees that the SK was the one who was inactive. Flash on his profile. Steel in his quote. "Unknown to death. Nor known to life." on his profile There could still be clues about the SK in the day post, unless a mod has said otherwise. Show nested quote +The other man didn’t do anything. And because the mods frown on not submitting your night action, we’re giving you clues on him even though he didn’t kill anyone. It's not that much in comparison to jackal58 which I why I'm voting for him tonight and nemesis next lynching day.
Oh lol. Sorry, that was me being lazy, and forgetful about the day post. Scratch that argument.
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Count me in for the switch to Eti, but I will be gone till 5. We just need to make sure that this vote switch is unavoidable, so the mafia can't use it to lynch Jackal/Nemesis. (Pick which one, that is.)
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On February 01 2011 08:44 Kenpachi wrote:Show nested quote +On February 01 2011 08:32 Barundar wrote:On February 01 2011 08:28 Kenpachi wrote:
WHY KILL NEMESIS On January 30 2011 11:37 Kenpachi wrote:
##vote Nemesis ~~ wat I MEAN WHY? KILL NEMESIS sorry the idea of changing to Eti at the last second is retarded.
I took precautions to make sure that it wouldn't turn into a horrible "Let the scum decide who dies" thing. But if I believe them both to be town, i'm going to try it. Obviously the town didn't say they would be support it, so I'll drop it.
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I found that list that was published very helpful before, so I'm going to update it:
Player: # of Posts
GMarshal: 33
Kitaman: 73
ilovejonn: 37
Bumatlarge: 54
Papapanda: 16
Deconduo: 28
Kenpachi: 31
Coagulation: 65
Jackal58: 78
Kavdragon: 120
Zerroth: 20
Mr Wiggles: 58
SiNiquity: 28
BrownBear: 49
Eti307: 6
LunarDestiny: 94
Impervious: 35
Nemesis: 49
Divinek: 13
CubEdIn: 52
Darmousseh: 72
Beneather: 12
Barundar: 28
List is approximate, give or take 10% on the numbers.
People we need to preassure:
Eti307: 6
Beneather: 12
Devinek: 13
Papapanda: 16
Zerroth: 20
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Can we move the discussion of the game called "football" by many in the USA out of this thread? It's spam at this point.
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Terribly sorry if I'm wrong Nemesis. I did try my best, but I had some RL things grab my attention, and I wasn't able to really push for anyone else when i needed to.
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Alright, on the subject of clues, I talked to LSB, and he's allowed me to post this:
[7:37 PM] Kavdragon: Hey, can I ask a few questions about the clues?
[7:37 PM] LSB: Sure
[7:37 PM] Kavdragon: There's been a lot of confusion, so let me start a the basics.
[7:39 PM] Kavdragon: Clues lead to people that have killed someone.
[7:39 PM] LSB: Excluding the day one post
[7:39 PM] LSB: and the exception made in day 3
[7:39 PM] LSB: yes
[7:40 PM] Kavdragon: Clues that appear can appear anywhere. For instance, a clue could appear in the victims's description.
[7:42 PM] LSB: yes clues can appear anywhere in the day post (excluding blue text)
[7:42 PM] Kavdragon: The SK may, or may not have a clue leading to him following his kill.
[7:43 PM] LSB: SK always has a clue leading to him following his kill
[7:51 PM] Kavdragon: Right so, a better clue question, I'll ask about myself.
[7:52 PM] Kavdragon: Could Train be a clue, in like....: He went to the gym to train for something"
[7:52 PM] LSB: No comment
[7:54 PM] LSB: A tip, if you can figure out what clues I wrote, and which one Node wrote, it could be useful
The highlights:
Clues lead to people that have killed someone.
Clues can appear anywhere in the day post (excluding blue text)
SK always has a clue leading to him following his kill
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What should the census be used for?
Mafia:
Pro:Checks to see if we hit a scum in this lynch, or if SK hit one for whatever reason.
Con:If we have lynched a townie, and I think that it's a fair possibility, we waste a chance to check something like Blue roles, or the number of SK
SK:
Pro: We solidify a number for mafia KP.
Con: We don't know if Nemesis is mafia.
Blues:
Pro: Gives me a good idea of the balance of the game.
Con: Town gains no more info, (As I wouldn't release the number), We don't know what Nemesis is.
Checking the number of SK's seems a bit odd, but shouldn't be underestimated. Knowing the exact number would be extremely helpful, and despite LSB soft claiming that there was 1 left, I wouldn't put it past him to play mind games with people who try to read into things too far. So we just don't know.
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Ok, cool. I agree, but wanted to leave all options open to the town. Oh, and best double check this now. I'd hate for us to discover this too late.
Just to be sure, If i get a report saying there are 5 mafia, then one of them dies, and I check again, it will return "4 mafia", correct? It's not the total number, including the dead?
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Right, it would be a much weaker power if it didn't work like that, but it's worth checking, right? I mean, if we are wrong, then....yeah. Bad stuff.
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Cool. With that out of the way, I'll wait a little longer for dissenting voices, then turn in the request for Mafia.
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EPT
