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On January 30 2011 06:14 bumatlarge wrote:Show nested quote +On January 30 2011 05:19 Kavdragon wrote:On January 30 2011 04:14 darmousseh wrote:
I think after this night we will get a ton more information. Serial killers have to kill so if we didn't lynch the SK yesterday, then there will be more clues pointing towards that person and if we did lynch the SK then yay town. No, mods said that SK will NOT get clues pointing to them every night. It would be really unfair if they did... what really? So how does that work? sometimes it just says someone dies? will it look like clues? red herrings? 
From what i read, the clues work like this: If three people die, there will be three clues. (with the SK being a possible exception to that rule). The clues will NOT NECESSARILY be in the description of the person who died. This means that all three could be in the last person's death, or they could be spread out, or wherever. If an SK kills someone, I'm assuming that the clue will just not always be there.
So for instance, the SK kills one person, the mafia kill two. There will be two clues in the day post, but they could be anywhere in the post. The important part is to remember that the clues could appear anywhere in the post, including right next to each other.
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On January 30 2011 06:40 bumatlarge wrote:Show nested quote +On January 30 2011 06:29 Kavdragon wrote:On January 30 2011 06:14 bumatlarge wrote:On January 30 2011 05:19 Kavdragon wrote:On January 30 2011 04:14 darmousseh wrote:
I think after this night we will get a ton more information. Serial killers have to kill so if we didn't lynch the SK yesterday, then there will be more clues pointing towards that person and if we did lynch the SK then yay town. No, mods said that SK will NOT get clues pointing to them every night. It would be really unfair if they did... what really? So how does that work? sometimes it just says someone dies? will it look like clues? red herrings? From what i read, the clues work like this: If three people die, there will be three clues. (with the SK being a possible exception to that rule). The clues will NOT NECESSARILY be in the description of the person who died. This means that all three could be in the last person's death, or they could be spread out, or wherever. If an SK kills someone, I'm assuming that the clue will just not always be there. So for instance, the SK kills one person, the mafia kill two. There will be two clues in the day post, but they could be anywhere in the post. The important part is to remember that the clues could appear anywhere in the post, including right next to each other. Man how do I miss this stuff, I thought I read this thread completely, Ill keep this in mind.
To be fair, there's been a lot of confusion when it comes to clues because the hosts gave us a bunch of info on them, then said "Wait, no. We take that back, we're not going to tell you."
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I realize that this is going against what I told medic earlier, but I'll say it anyways.
I'm fairly convinced that LunarDestiny is town, and I'd recommend him for a medic protect. Looking at it from the mafia's prospective, he's exactly the kind of person who they'd want to hit.
He has been fairly active, and as I see it, there's absolutely no reason for a mafia to go as far as he did to point out D3's question, and the answers made by Ace and Ver. Mafia have no need to go in-depth and look at things from other games. to make a case against anyone really, much less a lurker.
Oh, and in case I didn't mention it earlier, LD's post on D3's conversation with Ace and Ver is pretty damning. I'd take a look at it if you missed it.
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On January 30 2011 06:58 LunarDestiny wrote:Show nested quote +On January 30 2011 03:45 Kavdragon wrote:
Can someone explain to me why having the Vig claim before, or after is useful? Why does he need to claim at all? I also agree vig should not claim before shooting because it means nothing. A mafia could as well claim before shooting but it will lure dt toward his way. Alternative suggestion is if a vig really want to claim, he should claim much before the night ends so dts have a chance to check that shooter. This will greatly discourage mafia to claim vig. I didn't say I agree vig should claim before shooting. I just said if vig wants to claim before shooting, he should claim ahead of time and should not claim to be shooting in the last hour.
What good does it do the town to have a vig claim after shooting? Sure a DT can check him, but we won't know the result unless he claims too, and there's no way to check him, and on and on. Not to mention that it's possible that we've lost the DT already.
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On January 30 2011 07:37 d3_crescentia wrote:
I find it ridiculous that you don't take my illness seriously.
I find it ridiculous that you don't take this game seriously.
Don't sign up/replace if you are sick, and won't be able to post.
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On January 30 2011 07:51 BrownBear wrote:Show nested quote +On January 30 2011 07:50 Kavdragon wrote:On January 30 2011 07:37 d3_crescentia wrote:
I find it ridiculous that you don't take my illness seriously. I find it ridiculous that you don't take this game seriously. Don't sign up/replace if you are sick, and won't be able to post. Dude, chill. He probably didn't know he was going to get sick when he signed up as a replacement.
You're right. D3, I apologize for my flippant comment.
On January 30 2011 07:37 d3_crescentia wrote:
Given that your reads are usually incorrect, I'd say the probability that you're red is low, but not low enough for me to discount you.
Would you mind explaining this sentance? Are you basing the accuracy of my reads off of this game or my past games? Do you know something about my "reads" this game that we don't? Also, why would me being NOT red be a reason for you to discount me?
WHY lynch RoL when he was likely town and the strongest player we have? Then again that's been the most ridiculous pattern of towns in general - lynch RoL, find out he's town and then get fucked in the ass. When he hasn't been town he's generally been less lazy, but whatever - this isn't about him.
Agreed. RoL should NOT have been lynched today. I originally voted that, but thought better of it and asked the town to put off lynching him till tomorrow at the earliest.
Speaking of patterns - it's been town pattern to let the other dude off after Day 1 lynch and not pay attention to him until late game again. Happened with brocket last game; would've happened with Annul on Day 2 if there was no extended day. If we can see what he's doing you'll notice that he's hasn't said anything since he dodged the lynch. That's my concern now - he'll disappear now that he's no longer in danger.
A valid concern. I personally think that he's not mafia because his play reminds me of his previous town play, and because there weren't very many people defending him. (Something that he mafia can afford to do in this game to a much greater extent than other games) however, I am not the entire town, and they seemed to think that he was very suspicious. Why don't you keep an eye on him, and make sure he doesn't fall off the board?
If Nemesis dies, census is taken to check his alignment -> we start looking at his vote list. The only bad thing about this plan is wasting a vig shot on someone that should be dead anyway. Fact is that even when no one stepped up to actively defend him we ACTUALLY have bunch of dumb soft defends by GMarshal (who even said after some point "no one's defending him" and switched his vote to zergling) IF YOU HAVEN'T BEEN PAYING ATTENTION TO THE THREAD. Soft defends are treacherous territory at any rate, so it doesn't really say anything about anyone... yet.
I many people in the town thought that he might be a SK, in which case the shot would be wasted. I think that he's best left as a lynch candidate, and not a vig candidate.
As for Ace/Ver - they basically confirmed that I made the right play as mafia last game, regardless of however disgusting I felt about doing so. It's lame when town kills itself out of inactivity, so if you think I'm inactive and worth a bullet then KILL me NOW.
Are you over your illness? If not, you might ask about getting a replacement. If you are better, you'd better be up to posting and contributing, cause I'm not happy with inactivity, and I WILL push for the death of any who lurk or go inactive.
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Two reasons:
One, I wasn't that sure that RoL was town. I'm still not. I didn't have a good read on him, so I wanted to put off his lynch for a day.
Two: There were three modkills, and we need to know if any were any mafia amongst them. Fastforward to tomorrow night. We just lynched someone, and we want to check his alignment with the census. We'll never know if that the mafia that died is from today, or the lynch tomorrow. We should be able to figure out the SK from the NK. I'm betting there's only one right now, because I think it's unlikely that he doubled a hit on Meapak or Siniquity.
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Hell yes. This was a good night. Unlike last night I found out. There are STILL FIVE MAFIA.
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Before I ask for hit claims, is there any reason for people who were hit should NOT claim to have been hit?
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On January 30 2011 11:15 Coagulation wrote:Show nested quote +On January 30 2011 11:12 Kavdragon wrote:
Hell yes. This was a good night. Unlike last night I found out. There are STILL FIVE MAFIA. all those kills and not 1 mafia?
It's a little sobering. It's possible that we lynched/modkilled the SK, but it's unlikely given the "inactive" killer in the day post.
This means that RoL, Amber[light], D3, Tube, and Mr.Zergling were all Town.
We can now analyze the voting for RoL anyways, so that's good.
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It seems to be a common theme for people to miss my mafia# announcement, so again,
MAFIA NUMBER = 5
Also, we should look at who was inactive during the night for clues about who might have been the SK... At least we can eliminate a lot of people.
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On January 31 2011 06:16 GMarshal wrote:
My apologies for disappearing for almost two days, my computer was broken and I was unable to get online, (on the bright side, new graphics card an ram), I'll catch up with the thread ASAP, but for now I wanted to point out that I was saved from a hit last night. That is all until I catch up with the thread
Lol, and the missing hit finally shows up.
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With GMarshal's hit claim the only thing that makes sense is an SK not sending in hits.
Mafia hit Gmarshal to try any get at me, D3 was probably a blue snipe? I'm actually a bit confused about that one. Roleblock BB.
SK is inactive, and forgets to send in hit.
It's really unlikely that the mafia would be willing to put forward two of their members to claim a hit and a role-block like that.
Also, thanks to whoever saved GMarshal. You have your mayor's gratitude.
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On January 31 2011 10:09 bumatlarge wrote:+ Show Spoiler +On January 31 2011 08:59 LSB wrote:Show nested quote +On January 31 2011 08:54 deconduo wrote:On January 31 2011 08:51 LSB wrote:On January 31 2011 08:47 Beneather wrote:On January 31 2011 06:45 Kavdragon wrote:
With GMarshal's hit claim the only thing that makes sense is an SK not sending in hits.
Mafia hit Gmarshal to try any get at me, D3 was probably a blue snipe? I'm actually a bit confused about that one. Roleblock BB.
SK is inactive, and forgets to send in hit.
It's really unlikely that the mafia would be willing to put forward two of their members to claim a hit and a role-block like that.
Also, thanks to whoever saved GMarshal. You have your mayor's gratitude. If GMarshal was SK and his computer broke that would mean he was unable to send in his hit making it a 1 KP night. He claimed saying he got but was protected by a medic to cover that up but in reality he is SK and look like he's contributing. Do not speculate on the activity of the SK, it will get you nowhere So there is exactly one SK and he is alive?  Sure. If you believe me. It's all in the day 3 post LSB is the SK and we have to all lynch him or town never wins. THE CLUES MEAN NOTHING. I really can't think properly. Maybe I should get a beer and just type whatever comes into my head in one post? And then I can say I'm contributing today. It's between Nemesis/Beneather/Jackal? Healthy competition. I think you need clues from more then 1 day to really get me on board with it. The all function being gone is killing my morale to really analyze and review. With RoL, it was just ctrl-f, copy-paste and type thoughts and I was formulating opinions and thoughts in about 15 minutes. Well, the next best way is to search their name in content and mouseclick-3 the numbers and read/quote from there. I guess I could give them all a quick run and ignore clues until I develop opinions. Or I can just assume Kav is town and vote whatever he does lol Dont ask me why Im spoilering all this, because it's more then likely gonna make you read this useless stuff when you might skip over plain texted paragraphs. I'll be posting more soon.
Damn you. This shows how good he is at mind games. Obviously Scum.
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There is a bandwagon on Jackal. Almost no one else has votes on them. Doesn't this raise flags for anyone?
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Personally, despite the fact that Jackal has acted a bit scummy, and despite that I think that the clues are a little stronger, Nemesis looks like a better lynch to me.
I defended him yesterday because of his posting history, but what transpired when the votes started coming down was MUCH more suspicious than what happened with Jackal. I don't think that either are ideal lynch candidates, but it's not an ideal world.
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On January 31 2011 13:56 Nemesis wrote:Show nested quote +On January 31 2011 13:55 Kavdragon wrote:
Personally, despite the fact that Jackal has acted a bit scummy, and despite that I think that the clues are a little stronger, Nemesis looks like a better lynch to me.
I defended him yesterday because of his posting history, but what transpired when the votes started coming down was MUCH more suspicious than what happened with Jackal. I don't think that either are ideal lynch candidates, but it's not an ideal world.
Well then, why don't you provide an ideal lynch candidates?
To be quite honest, I have strong suspicions about Impervious, but I'm having a really hard time putting it into an argument. Essentially, My argument is that he's doing a good job of looking like he's contributing, but he's really not doing any of that. He's stirring up arguments with Jackal, and putting forth very little in the way of original ideas. But again, I'm having a hard time building the argument, so I'm frutratedly going with the lynches that the rest of the town have put on the table.
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On January 31 2011 14:12 Impervious wrote:
Make up your mind, woman.....
First you think i need to post more, and then when I do, you don't like it.....
Haha, yes. That's exactly how it's supposed to go: Pressure the Mafia into posting more, analyze posting, convict, then lynch. Thank you for playing the game! So far I've passed the first stage, and I'm working on the analysis. We'll see if that leads to Conviction, or Vindication.
On February 01 2011 01:57 Barundar wrote:
If I had to go by clue alone I would follow LD on Deconduo/pandain, or Beneather. Deconduo lurked as mafia in PYP3. In this game he has tried to contribute, even though he haven't had too many opinions on other players. Beneather has been scummy throughout thread but is a BG... What is your opinion on Beneather Kav?
He's actually been on my scum list for a little while, (I think I posted my suspicions), but I've been hesitant to push for his lynch until a much better case can be made for him. I'd rather not lynch my protection until we are certain that he's not protecting me.
On February 01 2011 02:49 darmousseh wrote:Show nested quote +On February 01 2011 02:31 deconduo wrote:The clue about dog meat is good, but you have the wrong person. Theres someone else with a dog in their profile: Beneather+ Show Spoiler +
He looked up and saw a masked man with a blood-spattered black apron tied around his waist. The man masterfully handled his instruments, hands moving at a blur, flashes of steel rising and falling, leaving perfectly sized morsels behind. He lifted a finger to his mouth and sucked.
We had a new two new kinds of meat tonight. The flesh tastes like pork, a little bit more bitter, stronger. It tastes quite good. Human meat
The second meat was really fatty and greasy, so the meat kind of breaks up in your mouth Dog meat
And then we realized that this wasn't any ordinary meat.
We never found the chef afterwards. Nor did we find d3_crescentia.
Now lets take a look: Picture: Masked man. Human meat + Dog meat. ![[image loading]](http://www.teamliquid.net/userfiles/63932.jpg?1295751181) Quote:They say practice makes perfect, and then they say nobody is perfect where is the sense in that? That is a great pickup. I feel really bad about lynching a bodyguard though. I wonder if both bodyguards are mafia!?!?!?! Kav, what's your opinion?
Beneather is suspect, but why do you think GMarshal is Mafia?
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On February 01 2011 02:53 deconduo wrote:
Its hard to ignore the connections to the mayor as well, the 2 picked bodyguards and one of the biggest campaigners for him.
My thoughts are to lynch Nemesis today and for vig (if we have one) to target kav tonight. If he dies it confirms Beneather and GMarshal as scum.
Out of curiosity, is this an FoS?
Having a vig hit me is a bad idea. I am 97% positive that I am protected. It's an interesting push though, something that may be very telling of you, Decon:
There is a possibility that I don't think has been mentioned in regards to the kills last night:
Mafia hitting D3 makes little sense. Ergo, Mafia didn't hit D3.
Town asked for a Vig to hit D3, and D3 was hit. Ergo, a Vig hit D3.
Mafia hit GMarshal. GMarshal's biggest contribution to the game recently has been protecting me. Ergo, Mafia are trying to kill me.
Mafia have two hits, so it's possible that they hit an SK. However, hits happen in order. This means that the Mafia could hit GMarshal, then hit me, in one night. I could have been the second target.
Now, let's look at what the mafia would do in that case:
Gmarshal didn't die, and didn't claim Vet. Thus he's either medic protected, or he's SK. He was gone during the time that the SK didn't put in a hit, so that make them think that he very well might be SK.
If Gmarshal is SK, Beneather is Mafia, then I'm unprotected. But rather than waste a hit on the Mayor (again) why not call for a vig to hit the mayor? At worst, the vig looses his hit, and at best they take out the mayor.
Deconduo, what have you to say for your idea?
+ Show Spoiler +On February 01 2011 04:28 Kavdragon wrote:
##Unvote: Nemesis
##Vote: Deconduo
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Also, I only implied this in that post, but I think that the mafia are busing Beneather so they can kill me.
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EPT
